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dcolkitt

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Claude-meter: Monitor your Claude subscription usage in the macOS Menu

github.com
1 points·by dcolkitt·2 個月前·1 comments

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dcolkitt
·2 個月前·discuss
This tool helps you avoid going over your weekly and session Claude subscription limits with a monitor right in the MacOS menubar. It's like a battery indicator but for your Claude usage.
dcolkitt
·4 年前·discuss
Yes, they pay short term capital gains taxed as ordinary income for equities. For futures they pay a blended 60/40 long-term/short-term rate, since all the futures trading is taxed that way (including for retail)
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
I’d say it’s more shocking how little they pay. These are founders who’ve created trillion dollar properties. Them being hurt or even hassled would potentially destroy billions in market value. If I was a shareholder, I’d insist on spending POTUS-tier security.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
I think the central fallacy is that you're assuming more money makes it easier to achieve higher returns. For the vast majority of finance, you get diminishing returns to scale. There are many investment strategies that have limited capacity, and as you get bigger you either have to dilute or take increasingly risky positions.

The phenomenon's pretty ubiquitous among hedge funds. Tons of funds produce stellar returns at $100 million AUM, then use that track record to grow to a $1 billion+ and all of a sudden put up mediocre results.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
> Expressing intent to resign, and actually resigning are completely different things.

You have to ask yourself, why this is the case. And the simple answer is status quo bias. Many dream of a different life, but few will actually pull the trigger on a major change.

However if a company suddenly changes an established working relationship, then all bets are off the table. If people have gotten used to WFH, and now you make them come into the office, then you’re invalidating the status quo bias. Switching jobs is probably less disruptive to their status quo then going back to the office.

Corporate managers are forgetting a very maxim. Never piss off your employees by taking away something they feel entitled to. It’s the same reason that it’s virtually unheard of to cut salary, even when revenue is collapsing in a deflationary recession.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
You can’t really just compare average salaries in different metros, because there’s major selection bias. The average engineer in South Dakota is not the same as one in San Francisco. Less talented workers tend to heavily flow towards low COL markets, because they’re less to achieve a high enough productivity differential to justify the high cost.

This obviously isn’t true for every single case. But the typical engineer at a sleepy regional bank is nowhere near talented enough to make it at a fast-paced, hyper-growth venture backed startup.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
The difference is that there’s not normally a mass catalyst like the end of WFH. Many people think of quitting their job, few actually do.

That’s largely because of status quo bias. People don’t like to make any major changes to their life situation unless prompted. But if a company exists on ending the WFH arrangements that people have become accustomed to over the past year, all bets are out the window.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
Any software company that’s ending remote work right now is basically risking its entire existence. There’s no possible way, in this market, a company will be able to replace 10% of its workforce in a reasonable time. I can understand why management wants to go back to the office, but why would you ever take the risk of being one of the first, before gauging how the market will react.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
Thanks! I'm gonna give this a try today.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
Out of curiosity how do you position your screens?

I used to rock dual Thunderbolt displays, but my always felt awkward either turning to the left or turning to the right. Now I now just use monitor, because I like having whatever I'm working on directly in front of me.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
The etymology of the word has nothing to do with race.[1] There are many uses in the English language where colors are used as descriptors in ways that have nothing to do with race.

Do you think we should ban the terms blackout, blackbody radiation, black holes, black ice, black ops, and black markets? Not everything is about race.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blacklisting
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
I would say the time the NYT literally covered up the crimes of Stalin, might have been one point where its ideological bias led it off track.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Duranty
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
We can just as easily say that from an African perspective there are no right wing publications or politicians. After all in most of Africa homosexuality is still criminalized. In many places, witchcraft and apostasy still is.

And Africa has about triple the population of Europe. So what makes Europe the default point of comparison? (More reporters having done a semester abroad at Barcelona than Lagos is not a valid answer.) Heck why restrict ourselves to the present? How about by the standards of all of human history? Even Fox News would be left wing in 1750.

The simple answer is that it’s very dumb to arbitrarily compare against a different society, with a different history and different culture. American institutions should benchmark on American mores, not grasp at politics from entirely different continents.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
I’m 100% certain that the median NYT employee is to the left of the median American for any reasonable construction of the left-right spectrum.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
> It's based on a CNBC reporter repeating what an unnamed source from Melvin told them

FTA:

> "Melvin Capital has repositioned our portfolio over the past few days. We have closed out our position in GME (GameStop)," the spokesman said in a statement.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
Melvin had already closed out their short position in GME by the time Citadel invested in them.

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-01-27/hed...
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
I think you see that pattern in a lot of subcultures that glorify destructive and reckless behavior. Look at hard drug subreddits, like /r/stims, or binge drinking fraternity culture, or that Facebook group where everyone points loaded guns at their crotch.

Participants will willingly acknowledge that the behavior is destructive or reckless. But they do so in a way that glorifies it. "Woah, I totally blacked out again last night. So crazy. High Five". When the most self-destructive member receives the most attention that acts as a pretty powerful incentive.

Humans are social animals. And the way most of us avoid bad decisions day-to-day is to look at our peer group and think "would this be something that a normal, respectable person would do". When you create a subculture filled with self-destructive people, it normalizes and encourages self-destructive behavior, even when people rationally know they shouldn't be engaging in it.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
I mostly agree with what you're saying.

But the probability that that the average WSB retail investor reconstructs a Robinhood account with superior mean-variance optimization than an index fund, is about the same chance that my dog builds a fusion reactor after getting into my toolbox.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
> There is ample evidence that individual investors can and do generate abnormal returns.

I actually agree with this. But didn't want to put it in, because so many people hear this qualification and just assume it means they can be the next /u/deepfuckingvalue.

To put it in the larger framework, I would say individuals can win in opportunities that are too awkward for institutions. Like patiently holding beaten down value stocks. But there's two caveats. One, is that most times this style of investing is painful, with long periods of underperformance. Two is that the outperformance is reasonably capped. Maybe an extra two or three percent a year. It's not going to catapult you to /u/deepfuckingvalue levels. For large enough opportunities, the institutions will swallow the awkwardness. That only leaves small rewards for a lot of pain.

Thanks. I do appreciate you bringing this point up.
dcolkitt
·5 年前·discuss
> If we are investigating the market structure

Market structure is not the subject of the investigation. Market volatility is. In this case microstructure has absolutely zero to do with the volatility. It was caused by 7 million retail traders simultaneously joining a poorly thought out pump and dump. That would create volatility regardless of the mechanics of how orders are crossed.

> Not saying that did happen, not saying it didn't, but Citadel is central

Spoiler: It didn't happen. Robinhood already publicly confirmed that the issue was them running out of collateral at the clearinghouse. Citadel confirmed that it never stopped accepting orders. The DTC confirmed that it raised the margin on GME, causing Robinhood to near its margin calls. JP Morgan and Goldman confirmed that Robinhood drew down its credit lines. Dozens of other brokers, most without ties to Citadel, restricted trading at the same time citing the same clearinghouse issues. The SEC could easily verify all of this. It would necessitate a giant conspiracy involving hundreds of potential whistle-blowers across a dozen companies all risking jail time. And somehow there's zero evidence of any of it.

This has become the stock market equivalent of QAnon at this point.