8 really, really scary predictions(money.cnn.com)
money.cnn.com
8 really, really scary predictions
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/index.html
14 comments
On a somewhat related note, I 'called' the Yahoo/Microsoft deal years before it was even discussed (I still think it will happen)
Can I have a CNN Tech article now please?
Predictions mean nothing, what you do about those predictions is what matters. Out of all of these people, who profited or did something to take advantage or help people?
Can I have a CNN Tech article now please?
Predictions mean nothing, what you do about those predictions is what matters. Out of all of these people, who profited or did something to take advantage or help people?
While all the predictions were somewhat negative, but realistic about the economy, to use the term "scary" is media sensationalism at its finest.
Objectively, we all need to prepare ourselves to weather this economic storm. Whether or not that's "scary" is a personal opinion. Personally, I'm not scared. However, I'd like to believe that I will continue to react to the situation in rational ways (unlike the political classes, unfortunately, who seem to be in full panic mode).
Objectively, we all need to prepare ourselves to weather this economic storm. Whether or not that's "scary" is a personal opinion. Personally, I'm not scared. However, I'd like to believe that I will continue to react to the situation in rational ways (unlike the political classes, unfortunately, who seem to be in full panic mode).
It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough.
"When people are fearful be greedy when people are greedy be fearful"
12 months ago most of these people's advice was terrible what makes people think it's gotten better after that? It's possible to make good money by riding the economy at large, but generating actual wealth vs. paper fortunes necessitates the same approach in up and down markets. Find an inefficiency in the current system and exploit it.
"When people are fearful be greedy when people are greedy be fearful"
12 months ago most of these people's advice was terrible what makes people think it's gotten better after that? It's possible to make good money by riding the economy at large, but generating actual wealth vs. paper fortunes necessitates the same approach in up and down markets. Find an inefficiency in the current system and exploit it.
Keep in mind we're all pretty young here at HN and are years from retirement (and if you're like me also pretty broke). If you were older and heavily invested in the market/your home and 2-5 years away from retirement, you'd be pretty scared about how you're going to support yourself as you get older and your health fails.
The thing about being a contrarian means that you're bound to be declared a prophet at least two or three times in your career. That's probably a nice feeling and great for book sales.
For those of us who spend time building businesses, these sorts of articles don't really mean anything. I'm still not going to crawl into a hole somewhere, so I don't see the point in reading "scary" predictions.
For those of us who spend time building businesses, these sorts of articles don't really mean anything. I'm still not going to crawl into a hole somewhere, so I don't see the point in reading "scary" predictions.
Agreed, in fact the time I waste reading the article (and commenting on it) does more harm to me and my business than the predictions contained within.
CNN has learned the art of link bait.
A numbered list + sensational title + appeals to a broad audience + 2:1 fluff to content ratio + broken up into 9 pages.
I can hear the Digg votes clicking away.
I can hear the Digg votes clicking away.
If this was Forbes it would be "9 Scary Predictions" and it would be a 'photo slide show' and the last slide would be an ad.
I was disappointed to not see Peter Schiff on that list.
So basically yet another regurgitation of the same sky is falling trap we've been hearing for months. Yes, I said trap instead of crap. It's slang for crap. The things that are getting hit hard right now are the things that were overvalued to begin with.
There is no sign of a bad economy. This looks like a correction to me, not like a crash.
The problem is that none of these people might have any insight. Yes, they said something, then it came true. However, astrologists say things that come true. They're more wrong than they're right, but you can easily find astrologists who have gotten a few big things correct. CNN has plastered up at least 5 of them as having the insight to see this mess coming. If you and I decide today to make predictions - me that 2009 will see a resurgence and you that 2009 will be more of the current pain, one of us is going to look like a financial genius. Well, at least to those who infer insight from a succession of events. One of them even says, "I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too."
I have made one correct prediction for the future, therefore future predictions of mine are likely to be correct. I guess I'm sick of the doom and gloom the media wants to sell us. Part of what happens in economic crisis is that people stop trusting the economy. In that distrust, people do things that aren't economically useful like hoarding (since they fear for the worst). It's a natural reaction and these stories heighten that reaction making the crisis considerably worse. People say credit is tight. People (banks) hear that and don't want to lend money since they might need it to cover something unexpected. As banks stop lending, credit actually becomes tight.
While I certainly don't believe this crisis is merely a factor of public perception, public perception can (and has) led to real problems in other nations and does cause problems like our current situation to become worse than it is - similarly, when we're all happy about the economy, our perception puts ourselves into a bigger boom than is real.
Live simply. Don't overextend. Save for the rainy days. Ignore the news.