Cerebras: The AI hardware giant facing imminent collapse
7 comments
There's not much concrete evidence to support any of the claims made here. Also nothing on blind. Account is made recently and this is the only post.
Suspicious post
Suspicious post
It might be a new account for privacy reasons. Folks can choose whether to believe them or not. If the company is really doomed, we’ll know soon enough.
There is a german idiom "Totgesagte leben länger" (the ones assumed dead, live longer).
Just because a business might be unsound, doesn't necessarily mean it will imminently collapse.
There is a lot of money going around right now and at its core Cerebras is a hardware company and their core innovation is in hardware.
At its core Cerebras is a hardware company. If they would have been able to just sell hardware that would be great, but for now I think the available speedups are not really worth it to most people to reengineer their software to fit the computation model outside of a few niche problems and TCO is pretty high.
But given the amount of resources being poured into AI right now, a lot of these tradeoffs don't seem so far out anymore. The main open question I guess is whether their architecture will be a good fit for whatever requirements come in the future (think continuous training and RL stuff). Their architecture is sufficiently different, so there might be some valid reasoning to hedge your bets.
Just because a business might be unsound, doesn't necessarily mean it will imminently collapse.
There is a lot of money going around right now and at its core Cerebras is a hardware company and their core innovation is in hardware.
At its core Cerebras is a hardware company. If they would have been able to just sell hardware that would be great, but for now I think the available speedups are not really worth it to most people to reengineer their software to fit the computation model outside of a few niche problems and TCO is pretty high.
But given the amount of resources being poured into AI right now, a lot of these tradeoffs don't seem so far out anymore. The main open question I guess is whether their architecture will be a good fit for whatever requirements come in the future (think continuous training and RL stuff). Their architecture is sufficiently different, so there might be some valid reasoning to hedge your bets.
80+% of business comes from one UAE based customer?
9/2024 filing at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828024...
> "Group 42 Holding Ltd (together with its affiliates, “G42”) accounted for 83% and 87%, respectively, of our total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023 and six months ended June 30, 2024. Our dependence on our relationship with G42 subjects us to a number of risks."
Is this on top of other concerns being floated?
9/2024 filing at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2021728/000162828024...
> "Group 42 Holding Ltd (together with its affiliates, “G42”) accounted for 83% and 87%, respectively, of our total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023 and six months ended June 30, 2024. Our dependence on our relationship with G42 subjects us to a number of risks."
Is this on top of other concerns being floated?
I thought Cerebras mainly focused on inference not finetuning/training.
Is this related to the withdrawn IPO filing?
"the writing is on the wall" -
"just raise $1B to expand"
...
In the cutthroat AI world, Cerebras Systems, despite colossal wafers and bold claims, faces collapse. Its fragile foundation stems from brittle hardware, astonishingly narrow in practical application. Optimized primarily for LLaMA model finetuning, touted "speed boosts" often use speculative decoding, masking that many "supported" models run inefficiently, if at all. This rigidity mirrors a Formula 1 engine demanding one fuel under lab conditions.
This compounds with a poorly conceived software and kernel stack. The current infrastructure restricts Cerebras systems almost exclusively to LLaMA-family transformer LLMs. Modern vision pipelines, diffusion models, or other AI paradigms are beyond reach. In a rapidly evolving field, this narrow focus is a death sentence. A complete software overhaul is desperately needed, yet internal motivation is absent, hinting at leadership either oblivious or unwilling to invest in survival. Technical woes are exacerbated by third-class ML expertise and rudderless, top-down leadership. Non-technical decision-makers lead to misguided strategies and poor adaptation. ML expertise is subpar and highly politicized; questionable ideas from figures like Head of AI Ganesh Venkatesh are reportedly prioritized, wasting resources. An extreme resource shortage – Cerebras hardware and even GPUs – cripples meaningful work, making numbers in reports untrustworthy fiction. The chasm between rhetoric and reality widens.
A palpable resignation within the ranks further indicts the company. Employees are "waiting it out" or trading stocks, not contributing. This disengagement highlights deep problems, where personal finance trumps innovation.
Cerebras appears a bloated, incompetent, and culturally bankrupt company. Any stock price would be a scam. The rare "A players" have left or are leaving.
The writing is on the wall. Cerebras, despite grand pronouncements, is a company built on sand, destined to crumble under its limitations and poor choices.
Get out while you still can.