Ask HN: Where is society heading, is there a plan for a jobless future?
35 comments
My understandng of UBI is that everyone gets it, rich or poor, working or not, there will be no unemployments benefits, disability benefit, or old age pensions.
In 2025 to 2026 the UK is forecast to spend £334.0 billion on the social security system payments. This will partly cover the rollout of UBI.
There will be no tax on UBI and you still get even if you work.
The "the lazy bastards wont want to work if we give them free money" crowd are wrong.
Currently people at the bottom of the lower socio-economic classes really struggle from one day to the next. They are not living, they are surviving. The evidence shows that those same poor people will work, because the extra money they earn will lift them out of poverty.
currently, if someone in the UK is claiming benefits, they are not allowed to work, if they work they commit fraud and lose their benefits. Hence, people are trapped in the benefit system. They are poor if the work and they are poor if they claim benefits.
The rich and business will have to pay more to support the structure.
The volunteer sector will thrive. I loved working as a volunteer. I did it for 10 years as a psychotherapist offering my services for free.
UBI, I hope will provide us with a pathway back to equality, civility and humanity.
fingers crossed
In 2025 to 2026 the UK is forecast to spend £334.0 billion on the social security system payments. This will partly cover the rollout of UBI.
There will be no tax on UBI and you still get even if you work.
The "the lazy bastards wont want to work if we give them free money" crowd are wrong.
Currently people at the bottom of the lower socio-economic classes really struggle from one day to the next. They are not living, they are surviving. The evidence shows that those same poor people will work, because the extra money they earn will lift them out of poverty.
currently, if someone in the UK is claiming benefits, they are not allowed to work, if they work they commit fraud and lose their benefits. Hence, people are trapped in the benefit system. They are poor if the work and they are poor if they claim benefits.
The rich and business will have to pay more to support the structure.
The volunteer sector will thrive. I loved working as a volunteer. I did it for 10 years as a psychotherapist offering my services for free.
UBI, I hope will provide us with a pathway back to equality, civility and humanity.
fingers crossed
This really does seem like a possible way forward to me. I had the advantage of taking a few years off of work, and I was able to pursue a lot of interesting venues I never would have if I had the continuous stress of rent going on. I gained a much stronger sense of myself as a being outside of just being a "worker". I helped others, built relationships, and moved some research forward. It was a societal net positive for me to NOT work.
Imagine the groundswell of what so many disadvantaged people could do if they weren't just working to survive - how many people could actually come online, and turn their attention towards other problems, or live healthier lives. In the neurodivergent community many can't reach the demands of steady work consistently enough to stay employed, yet they're often some of the most competent when actually on.
What is the most telling I think is how many zero-sum IQ-superiority-complex eugenicists out there who truly have never faced or considered the levels of adversity people not like them go through every day. This empathy gap and denial of shared humanity is the most dangerous meme of our species.
Imagine the groundswell of what so many disadvantaged people could do if they weren't just working to survive - how many people could actually come online, and turn their attention towards other problems, or live healthier lives. In the neurodivergent community many can't reach the demands of steady work consistently enough to stay employed, yet they're often some of the most competent when actually on.
What is the most telling I think is how many zero-sum IQ-superiority-complex eugenicists out there who truly have never faced or considered the levels of adversity people not like them go through every day. This empathy gap and denial of shared humanity is the most dangerous meme of our species.
>The volunteer sector will thrive. I loved working as a volunteer. I did it for 10 years as a psychotherapist offering my services for free.
Anyone well off enough to do this should be taxed as well, to support the structure
Anyone well off enough to do this should be taxed as well, to support the structure
'The "the lazy bastards wont want to work if we give them free money" crowd are wrong.'
The post was about what happens when there arent any jobs. Want of work is a moot point.
The post was about what happens when there arent any jobs. Want of work is a moot point.
> the writing is on the wall that eventually we will automate virtually all jobs out of existence
No, it really isn't. We've already been down this road, multiple times over history. Look at the jobs people did 100 years ago, or even 500 years ago. Core services to keep societal infrastructure running, including education and food production, is still here. Different, but still absolutely a good chunk of the work done in this world. We have never automated away that core 30-40% of work in the world, we just changed what everyone else did. The change just feels bigger to those of us who work in tech, which falls squarely in the "other" category that isn't truly the core of a functioning humanity.
AI might bring significant change, or it might not - we're still too early to tell, and recent news about how almost no companies are getting their ROI on AI is proof of that. Odds are, it will go the way the tractor did 100 years ago: Quick adoption, quick failure, quick reversion, pause for a decade to re-assess and improve, then actual adoption and success after that decade. So, around 2037.
We're 10 years from even knowing if this is a fad or if it is real societal change.
The writing is absolutely not on the wall.
No, it really isn't. We've already been down this road, multiple times over history. Look at the jobs people did 100 years ago, or even 500 years ago. Core services to keep societal infrastructure running, including education and food production, is still here. Different, but still absolutely a good chunk of the work done in this world. We have never automated away that core 30-40% of work in the world, we just changed what everyone else did. The change just feels bigger to those of us who work in tech, which falls squarely in the "other" category that isn't truly the core of a functioning humanity.
AI might bring significant change, or it might not - we're still too early to tell, and recent news about how almost no companies are getting their ROI on AI is proof of that. Odds are, it will go the way the tractor did 100 years ago: Quick adoption, quick failure, quick reversion, pause for a decade to re-assess and improve, then actual adoption and success after that decade. So, around 2037.
We're 10 years from even knowing if this is a fad or if it is real societal change.
The writing is absolutely not on the wall.
If we have a scenario where humans can't outperform machines in any problem domain it will definitely be different than past productivity increases.
With all the tech advancements and the rise of AI, it’s easy to wonder if we’re heading toward a jobless future. But if we look at history, technology has always shifted the way jobs work, rather than completely eliminating them. Sure, some roles may disappear, but new ones will emerge, and a lot of them will change in ways we can’t even predict right now.
There’s no blueprint for a jobless society, but businesses, markets, and governments are adapting as they go. Most companies are using AI to make people more productive, not replace them.
The real concern is inequality, the fear that some people might be left behind while others benefit from AI. We’ll have to be mindful of that as things evolve.
My opinion or advice would be that to thrive in this future, we should focus on developing skills in areas that are harder to automate, like creativity, judgement, and complex problem-solving. These are the kinds of skills that will keep you adaptable, no matter how the job market changes.
There’s no blueprint for a jobless society, but businesses, markets, and governments are adapting as they go. Most companies are using AI to make people more productive, not replace them.
The real concern is inequality, the fear that some people might be left behind while others benefit from AI. We’ll have to be mindful of that as things evolve.
My opinion or advice would be that to thrive in this future, we should focus on developing skills in areas that are harder to automate, like creativity, judgement, and complex problem-solving. These are the kinds of skills that will keep you adaptable, no matter how the job market changes.
if we assume no new jobs will be created after AI automates most work (I think there will be new jobs)
living on UBI will be miserable, and as such common folk will become even more and absolutely reliant on the government, especially when services and payments are completely digitalized...
in this kind of world, unless space exploration is a thing, massive oppression of common people and wars will be on the menu
living on UBI will be miserable, and as such common folk will become even more and absolutely reliant on the government, especially when services and payments are completely digitalized...
in this kind of world, unless space exploration is a thing, massive oppression of common people and wars will be on the menu
I've asked this sort of question before. I've never found a satisfactory answer.
My best guess is that we will mostly see wars and a societal collapse. People want things, things have scarcity. If people feel they are entitled to more than they have, they will steal/fight/etc. As people become disconnected from the work that goes into production and the satisfaction from contributing, the entitlement grows.
My best guess is that we will mostly see wars and a societal collapse. People want things, things have scarcity. If people feel they are entitled to more than they have, they will steal/fight/etc. As people become disconnected from the work that goes into production and the satisfaction from contributing, the entitlement grows.
there will be major wars
it will be a disorderly abandonment of the old order followed by warring factions seeking to impose an advantaged new order
eventually there are enough survivors sick of fighting that the fighting stops, day one of the new order
it has always been this way, there’s no stopping it
it will be a disorderly abandonment of the old order followed by warring factions seeking to impose an advantaged new order
eventually there are enough survivors sick of fighting that the fighting stops, day one of the new order
it has always been this way, there’s no stopping it
How about just re-frame so that you do whatever is within your power so that you don't end up in the middle or at the bottom?
Why not just aim to be near the top? You don't need to be top dog, but you can at least be in the top 10% which is doable if you're able to post on HN.
You know if you just look at the last even like 200 years people have been through like 100x worse shit, let alone the last 2000.
This is just how life is, there will always be massive disruptions.
Why not just aim to be near the top? You don't need to be top dog, but you can at least be in the top 10% which is doable if you're able to post on HN.
You know if you just look at the last even like 200 years people have been through like 100x worse shit, let alone the last 2000.
This is just how life is, there will always be massive disruptions.
You may read Asimov, especially the books related to Solaria (https://asimov.fandom.com/wiki/Solaria)
Long story short: massive reduction of population
Of course, this is science fiction; But the answer is still legit and everybody knows that: how do we keep 8 billions occupied ? Useless work (as of know, for an increasing part of the population), drugs or thinning the herd
Long story short: massive reduction of population
Of course, this is science fiction; But the answer is still legit and everybody knows that: how do we keep 8 billions occupied ? Useless work (as of know, for an increasing part of the population), drugs or thinning the herd
If you have truly no conception of how to keep people "occupied" as your wording suggests, may I suggest studying even elementary school level humanities or philosophy.
It used to be, and I think will be again one day, that sociopathic comments like "thinning the herd" would be considered deeply troubling. Its clear though that a vision of a brighter future is necessary if we are to achieve it.
It used to be, and I think will be again one day, that sociopathic comments like "thinning the herd" would be considered deeply troubling. Its clear though that a vision of a brighter future is necessary if we are to achieve it.
But I did and I still do
Pascal in his book "les pensées" introduced the idea that we (the human race) keep ourselves busy to avoid the anguish of the inner void that lurks in everybody, to avoid realizing too much that, in the end, life is meaningless, that we are nothing in the great scheme of the universe. So we work, we play, we do things, any things and forget about ourselves.
Charles Baudelaire, in his poem "Enivrez-vous", spoke about the soul-crushing experience of doing nothing, and that "being drunk on something, anything" was a requirement to living a good life (job, drugs, whatever): it is required to fight the terrible passage of time that burdens us.
Being on vacation is meaningful and appreciated because it contrasts with the rest of our life. Would we enjoy a lifetime of vacation ? Yes at first, hardly then (also and this is lame but true, there is pleasure in getting things that not everybody can get)
In another way and in essence, Malsow talk about the common need to solve problems. Which is seen by some people as the key to happiness: not avoid problems, but solve them. Because there are always new problems in life, and if life fails to give some to us, then we find some ourselves ..
So what would we do ? Well, we could work on some very original ideas. Get more power that our neighbors. Get more things. Would that leads to conflicts and wars ? No, no of course not, that would be a first in history.
Now, you gave basically no information. Please answer me: how do we keep 8 billions occupied ? Not for a day, not for a month, but for a lifetime.
Pascal in his book "les pensées" introduced the idea that we (the human race) keep ourselves busy to avoid the anguish of the inner void that lurks in everybody, to avoid realizing too much that, in the end, life is meaningless, that we are nothing in the great scheme of the universe. So we work, we play, we do things, any things and forget about ourselves.
Charles Baudelaire, in his poem "Enivrez-vous", spoke about the soul-crushing experience of doing nothing, and that "being drunk on something, anything" was a requirement to living a good life (job, drugs, whatever): it is required to fight the terrible passage of time that burdens us.
Being on vacation is meaningful and appreciated because it contrasts with the rest of our life. Would we enjoy a lifetime of vacation ? Yes at first, hardly then (also and this is lame but true, there is pleasure in getting things that not everybody can get)
In another way and in essence, Malsow talk about the common need to solve problems. Which is seen by some people as the key to happiness: not avoid problems, but solve them. Because there are always new problems in life, and if life fails to give some to us, then we find some ourselves ..
So what would we do ? Well, we could work on some very original ideas. Get more power that our neighbors. Get more things. Would that leads to conflicts and wars ? No, no of course not, that would be a first in history.
Now, you gave basically no information. Please answer me: how do we keep 8 billions occupied ? Not for a day, not for a month, but for a lifetime.
Or you could just, yknow, face the truth of your existence instead of run from the void of your unimportantness. Find some people to get with that makes it easier. Easier said than done, but also a lot easier and more congruent with existence as a human than applying your capitalistic competitive mindset to a post scarcity world.
We have so many systems of meaning that exist across the planet. You know about one of them. Find out about some of the others.
We have so many systems of meaning that exist across the planet. You know about one of them. Find out about some of the others.
"may I suggest studying even elementary school level humanities or philosophy"
"face the truth of your existence"
"We have so many systems of meaning that exist across the planet"
Your words are empty. I gave you several leads to actual people who gave actual thoughts with serious conclusions (that matches the world you can see). You gave nothing except meaningless words. What is the truth of our existence ? What systems (there are so many!) are you speaking about ? Why none of them are implemented right now, and why everybody still have the need to do things in their lives ?
And the most important question: how do you keep 8 billions people occupied ?
"face the truth of your existence"
"We have so many systems of meaning that exist across the planet"
Your words are empty. I gave you several leads to actual people who gave actual thoughts with serious conclusions (that matches the world you can see). You gave nothing except meaningless words. What is the truth of our existence ? What systems (there are so many!) are you speaking about ? Why none of them are implemented right now, and why everybody still have the need to do things in their lives ?
And the most important question: how do you keep 8 billions people occupied ?
Anyone who can't think of something to do is the first to cause trouble...
No, they’re the first to check in on their friends and family, see if they need help. Theyre the first to look for problems to solve.
LLMs will likely replace the developers that shouldn’t have been there in the first place. That’s a market correction, not a technology revolution. Even in that case the role of LLMs will ultimately be supremely small, a new tool.
Sama said we will get universal high income if we give him the iris scans
Everyone in America is going to be a farmer. There will be a scramble for establishing homestead properties.
Using 3-5 robots to managed whatever small acreage they amassed. From harvesting,canning and storing into a food pantry. Nearly every household has this automated and 100% owned. Robots get repaired by hand or by another robot. Robots or human operation manage Aeroponics/Aquaponics systems for growing more 'exotic' food items
The neighborhood becomes and micro economy where we barter with each other casually for swapping ingredient inventory.
Probably pretty enjoyable for the first generation or two that previously had corporate 9-5s. Maybe the kids growing up in that environment get bored and crave some other type of lifestyle. I would probably be pretty satisfied to spend my day cooking things I grew myself or shared with neighbors.
I mean think about implementing a proper permaculture food system on your property, like Mark Shepard, but automated...
A solar punk-ish future awaits.
people will definitely still fight over water resources. if not more than ever.
idk, just the scenario I fantasize about when owning a few bots. maybe I would take up some craftsmanship of some kind when I'm not debugging some robot that stalled out in the fields.
Using 3-5 robots to managed whatever small acreage they amassed. From harvesting,canning and storing into a food pantry. Nearly every household has this automated and 100% owned. Robots get repaired by hand or by another robot. Robots or human operation manage Aeroponics/Aquaponics systems for growing more 'exotic' food items
The neighborhood becomes and micro economy where we barter with each other casually for swapping ingredient inventory.
Probably pretty enjoyable for the first generation or two that previously had corporate 9-5s. Maybe the kids growing up in that environment get bored and crave some other type of lifestyle. I would probably be pretty satisfied to spend my day cooking things I grew myself or shared with neighbors.
I mean think about implementing a proper permaculture food system on your property, like Mark Shepard, but automated...
A solar punk-ish future awaits.
people will definitely still fight over water resources. if not more than ever.
idk, just the scenario I fantasize about when owning a few bots. maybe I would take up some craftsmanship of some kind when I'm not debugging some robot that stalled out in the fields.
That's very depressing to find several comments mentioning wars.
Isn’t that what has happened historically?
Unfortunately, the occupation that will still exist in the next few decades will be a soldier, as I said before due to the next wave of wars. [0]
For now, I can see that Mercor needs ex-knowledge workers to be data labelers to train the AIs that will replace the remaining knowledge workers.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46015375
For now, I can see that Mercor needs ex-knowledge workers to be data labelers to train the AIs that will replace the remaining knowledge workers.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46015375
I'm steering my children to become PE teachers.
I think you are thinking this is all there is. There is more. Yes current tasks are automatable. But what about future tasks? When we don't need to write code what can we do with our brains instead?? What can we learn about biology/chemistry/physics/engineering that we don't know now.
The same thing happened in the industrial revolution... This might be different than that but freeing up resources from menial tasks means we can work at a higher level.
AI might be able to do that too, and there will be a period of adjustment, but we as a whole need to change a and move forward together. Not just tech bros. Government and industry will also need to change to help society... Else we will have collapse.
The same thing happened in the industrial revolution... This might be different than that but freeing up resources from menial tasks means we can work at a higher level.
AI might be able to do that too, and there will be a period of adjustment, but we as a whole need to change a and move forward together. Not just tech bros. Government and industry will also need to change to help society... Else we will have collapse.
> But what about future tasks?
There wont be as many. The previous automation waves since the late 1800s have optimized or automated away a lot of tasks humans used to do, while what human beings do and need have not increased at the same pace. Today, we arent using flying cars or cyberpunk technologies that require a whole industry chain in which millions of people can participate, like how it was depicted in sci fi movies for example. Whatever scarce new thing that came to being, was consolidated in the hands of megacorps and automated to max extent to reduce workforce. Since the 1970s we automated away almost all the workforce in factories - what used to require ~2000-3000 people in a factory to produce now requires ~100 people using extremely efficient automated systems. Only white collar work remained, and now the AI is automating away the white collars too, who were the last remaining holdout that helped infuse the economy with cash through their salaries.
Blackrock CEO's surprising speech at Davos is spot on and what Marx said 150 years ago. It just happened, in front of our eyes, in our lifetime: Capitalism literally choked itself by automating production, firing workers and ending up with an economy that has products, but no one with the money to buy them.
There wont be as many. The previous automation waves since the late 1800s have optimized or automated away a lot of tasks humans used to do, while what human beings do and need have not increased at the same pace. Today, we arent using flying cars or cyberpunk technologies that require a whole industry chain in which millions of people can participate, like how it was depicted in sci fi movies for example. Whatever scarce new thing that came to being, was consolidated in the hands of megacorps and automated to max extent to reduce workforce. Since the 1970s we automated away almost all the workforce in factories - what used to require ~2000-3000 people in a factory to produce now requires ~100 people using extremely efficient automated systems. Only white collar work remained, and now the AI is automating away the white collars too, who were the last remaining holdout that helped infuse the economy with cash through their salaries.
Blackrock CEO's surprising speech at Davos is spot on and what Marx said 150 years ago. It just happened, in front of our eyes, in our lifetime: Capitalism literally choked itself by automating production, firing workers and ending up with an economy that has products, but no one with the money to buy them.
Got a link to the speech?
Video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHnSmuCxOao&t=5m3s
As for text, Fink's LI account published his own remarks on 2026-01-19 (no login required; also, not a video nor a verbatim transcript, but rather a similar outline) at: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-remarks-interim-co-chair-w...
As for text, Fink's LI account published his own remarks on 2026-01-19 (no login required; also, not a video nor a verbatim transcript, but rather a similar outline) at: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-remarks-interim-co-chair-w...
Many, if not most, jobs from a couple hundred years ago are fully automated now. You'd think that would mean we could stop charging for living, but due to the nature of capitalism and continued physical development we will continue to pay for things. This is the cost of being at the bleeding edge.
> the writing is on the wall that eventually we will automate virtually all jobs out of existence.
That already happened decades ago. Less than 10% of the population does the work necessary to provide more than 80% of goods and services.
The majority of adults in the industrialized world do not do any productive work (regardless if they have employment or not). And on top of this, a huge percentage of adults - maybe 20% - have never done even one day of productive work in their entire life and will live from cradle to grave without ever having contributed.
Among those who actually do some productive work, most are doing it at a small fraction of their potential.
Industrialization of goods production and agriculture, combined with digitalization, has made contribution and reward completely disconnected. Meaning most industrialized nations have scam economies, regardless if the nations are communist, capitalist, or anything in between. Your salary, your employment, your wealth, has no connection to how much you contribute to the economy. That is true both for individuals and for businesses.
Everybody I know in real life who actually works for a living is doing the work of 5-10 people. That's their productive output. A factory worker is probably in the range of 40-50 people, as well as an industrialized farmer.
So you are already living in the scenario which you fear. We're already in the jobless future, and the solutions will continue to be the same: government handouts, fake jobs at fake businesses and fake public services, money manipulation to boost real estate fake appreciation, regulatory manipulation to create new streams of income for people not working, etc.
That already happened decades ago. Less than 10% of the population does the work necessary to provide more than 80% of goods and services.
The majority of adults in the industrialized world do not do any productive work (regardless if they have employment or not). And on top of this, a huge percentage of adults - maybe 20% - have never done even one day of productive work in their entire life and will live from cradle to grave without ever having contributed.
Among those who actually do some productive work, most are doing it at a small fraction of their potential.
Industrialization of goods production and agriculture, combined with digitalization, has made contribution and reward completely disconnected. Meaning most industrialized nations have scam economies, regardless if the nations are communist, capitalist, or anything in between. Your salary, your employment, your wealth, has no connection to how much you contribute to the economy. That is true both for individuals and for businesses.
Everybody I know in real life who actually works for a living is doing the work of 5-10 people. That's their productive output. A factory worker is probably in the range of 40-50 people, as well as an industrialized farmer.
So you are already living in the scenario which you fear. We're already in the jobless future, and the solutions will continue to be the same: government handouts, fake jobs at fake businesses and fake public services, money manipulation to boost real estate fake appreciation, regulatory manipulation to create new streams of income for people not working, etc.
Many white-collar jobs will be automated and those people will have to adapt and learn new skills.
We are still quite a ways away from a robot showing up to the home or business to fix plumbing along with many other blue-collar jobs. It will happen but I have no clue when or if it will even happen in my lifetime. The prototype robots that could in theory do these jobs have a lot of development, real world testing and improvements before they are commercially viable in my opinion.
Like FSD they will have to prove themselves to multiple levels of government before they are permitted to perform regulated and licensed functions. Electrician, Plumber, Civic Engineering, Certified Aircraft Mechanic, etc... There are known-unknowns that will have to be dealt with before a generic robot is permitted into a home and operate around children such as security hardening and physical safety. How much strength, bending and killing power will a generic robot be permitted to have? What is the most damage a hacker can do to adults and children via remote control of a robot? Will all robots be required to have a "safe word" that is hard wired into their firmware and a physical cut-off switch in a standard location?
There will be unknown-unknowns that pop up along the way slowing their progression. There is also the aspect of insurance and liability for generic robots operating in a commercial environment, proof of protection from IP theft, protection from take-over by competitors. There will be questions such as what is a robots responsibility if it observes a human in danger, a human breaking laws, another robot malfunctioning or harming a human and so on.
Will these robots be permitted to share everything they witness with a company and / or government? What privacy laws will exist? What happens if a robot starts to exhibit true sentience and not just mimicry of sentience like LLM's? Will their be a legal process to validate sentience? What rights will robots be afforded? Will sentient robots be given human rights? Will a marriage between a human and robot be legally recognized? If a robot breaks the law will it be punished or would that fall back to the corporation as a "industrial incident" of sorts? How will we determine the line between accident and remote assassination?
Yes I have watched iRobot way too many times and I have always enjoyed Isaac Asimov's works.
As for UBI, something has to pay for it. In the USA we already have a massive national debt and the petro dollar may not exist much longer the only thing allowing us to have such a massive dept. Do we cancel all existing welfare and related programs and consolidate them into UBI? Would that even begin to pay for such a universally applied program for hundreds of millions of people? I know people will suggest Robin Hood tactics like excessive taxes on the wealthy but that would be short lived even if it were ever approved. What would be the viable long term strategy?
Oh right, and there will still be a need for firefighters, law enforcement, medical response. Do we trust robots and their masters enough to have Robocops, ED-209's, Armadyne Corp. droids and all the other dystopian fictional robots regulating us humans? Corporations and their lobbyists make most of the laws.
We are still quite a ways away from a robot showing up to the home or business to fix plumbing along with many other blue-collar jobs. It will happen but I have no clue when or if it will even happen in my lifetime. The prototype robots that could in theory do these jobs have a lot of development, real world testing and improvements before they are commercially viable in my opinion.
Like FSD they will have to prove themselves to multiple levels of government before they are permitted to perform regulated and licensed functions. Electrician, Plumber, Civic Engineering, Certified Aircraft Mechanic, etc... There are known-unknowns that will have to be dealt with before a generic robot is permitted into a home and operate around children such as security hardening and physical safety. How much strength, bending and killing power will a generic robot be permitted to have? What is the most damage a hacker can do to adults and children via remote control of a robot? Will all robots be required to have a "safe word" that is hard wired into their firmware and a physical cut-off switch in a standard location?
There will be unknown-unknowns that pop up along the way slowing their progression. There is also the aspect of insurance and liability for generic robots operating in a commercial environment, proof of protection from IP theft, protection from take-over by competitors. There will be questions such as what is a robots responsibility if it observes a human in danger, a human breaking laws, another robot malfunctioning or harming a human and so on.
Will these robots be permitted to share everything they witness with a company and / or government? What privacy laws will exist? What happens if a robot starts to exhibit true sentience and not just mimicry of sentience like LLM's? Will their be a legal process to validate sentience? What rights will robots be afforded? Will sentient robots be given human rights? Will a marriage between a human and robot be legally recognized? If a robot breaks the law will it be punished or would that fall back to the corporation as a "industrial incident" of sorts? How will we determine the line between accident and remote assassination?
Yes I have watched iRobot way too many times and I have always enjoyed Isaac Asimov's works.
As for UBI, something has to pay for it. In the USA we already have a massive national debt and the petro dollar may not exist much longer the only thing allowing us to have such a massive dept. Do we cancel all existing welfare and related programs and consolidate them into UBI? Would that even begin to pay for such a universally applied program for hundreds of millions of people? I know people will suggest Robin Hood tactics like excessive taxes on the wealthy but that would be short lived even if it were ever approved. What would be the viable long term strategy?
Oh right, and there will still be a need for firefighters, law enforcement, medical response. Do we trust robots and their masters enough to have Robocops, ED-209's, Armadyne Corp. droids and all the other dystopian fictional robots regulating us humans? Corporations and their lobbyists make most of the laws.
>Do we cancel all existing welfare and related programs and consolidate them into UBI?
Too late, they've already been consolidated in the complete opposite direction.
Too late, they've already been consolidated in the complete opposite direction.
I would argue that something like Universal Basic Income is necessary, and likely a short-term stopgap at best. While we might not reach AGI soon (or ever), that doesn't mean LLM's aren't going to continue to improve and continue to replace / displace job sectors - they're already 'good enough' to have an impact on the software industry. One could argue that physical labor jobs are safe, but that's only true while Boston Dynamics type robots are still too expensive to justify. Like everything, the cost will continue to come down on robotics, and the convergence of AI with something like Boston Dynamics will eventually impact non-white-collar work. Again, set the time-line as you like, it's 'not a will it happen', but a 'when will it happen'.
Are governments aware of all this? Are they planning for a sort of post-money world? What happens when all jobs are automated and companies achieve even higher profits? Taxing them more and has its limits. Who is going to buy their products if everyone is out of work? Are we heading toward a sort of Star-Trek style social structure where money is no longer a thing? I used to conclude with my dad that these were problems far off in the future - and that may very well be true still - but having two kids under 5, it feels like this future isn't as far off as it used to be, and I really wonder what kind of work/world they'll be living in when they're my age.