Show HN: Chat with an exhaustive geopolitical simulation of the 2026 Iran War(notebooklm.google.com)
notebooklm.google.com
Show HN: Chat with an exhaustive geopolitical simulation of the 2026 Iran War
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/4cf9474f-194d-4607-8953-8ee84a9e66e0
5 comments
I built this using Claude Code as an orchestration layer — parallel research agents deployed per resource and per country, each producing a self-contained deep dive with sourced data. Cascade models then identify how disruptions compound across domains simultaneously.
The motivation: most war analysis is top-down political commentary. But wars are resource disruption events. If you model from physical constraints upward — who produces what, what ships through where, what breaks when supply X goes offline — you get different predictions than pundit-level analysis.
Findings that surprised me:
1. The chip famine is three independent input crises hitting simultaneously (helium 33% offline + bromine 67% at risk + neon combinatorial) — no single-source fix exists
2. The food crisis was locked in by March. Northern Hemisphere spring planting happened with disrupted fertilizer supply. Even an immediate ceasefire can't fix Q3-Q4 yields.
3. November 2026 is a convergence point where US midterms, China's gallium/germanium export deadline, and Europe's winter energy crisis all collide.
4. Insurance is a bigger weapon than missiles. The $1:$390 trade multiplier means Lloyd's war-risk designations freeze far more economic activity than physical damage.
You can chat with the full research via
1. NotebookLM (link above),
2. browse the site (https://hrishirc.github.io/iran-war-2026-analysis/),
3. or dig into the source (https://github.com/hrishirc/iran-war-2026-analysis).
All sourced from major news outlets, think tanks, and government reports (Feb-March 2026). Built with Claude Code using an "Agentic Brain" knowledge architecture — the CLAUDE.md in the repo documents how 76 files are organized and interconnected.
The motivation: most war analysis is top-down political commentary. But wars are resource disruption events. If you model from physical constraints upward — who produces what, what ships through where, what breaks when supply X goes offline — you get different predictions than pundit-level analysis.
Findings that surprised me:
1. The chip famine is three independent input crises hitting simultaneously (helium 33% offline + bromine 67% at risk + neon combinatorial) — no single-source fix exists
2. The food crisis was locked in by March. Northern Hemisphere spring planting happened with disrupted fertilizer supply. Even an immediate ceasefire can't fix Q3-Q4 yields.
3. November 2026 is a convergence point where US midterms, China's gallium/germanium export deadline, and Europe's winter energy crisis all collide.
4. Insurance is a bigger weapon than missiles. The $1:$390 trade multiplier means Lloyd's war-risk designations freeze far more economic activity than physical damage.
You can chat with the full research via
1. NotebookLM (link above),
2. browse the site (https://hrishirc.github.io/iran-war-2026-analysis/),
3. or dig into the source (https://github.com/hrishirc/iran-war-2026-analysis).
All sourced from major news outlets, think tanks, and government reports (Feb-March 2026). Built with Claude Code using an "Agentic Brain" knowledge architecture — the CLAUDE.md in the repo documents how 76 files are organized and interconnected.
A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
America is overextended.
China wins by waiting.
China wins by waiting.
Iran's gulf asymmetrical advantage (Hormuz control) ensures this outcome
1. *"The US has aircraft carriers. China has the periodic table."* The US won the military war in hours. But China controls rare earth processing, gallium/germanium for defense electronics, cobalt refining, lithium refining — and is insulated from Hormuz. By year-end, China establishes its first permanent Gulf naval presence and yuan-denominated oil rises 30-40%. The war's winner never fires a shot.
2. *Late April pharma cliff.* Pharmaceutical buffer stocks exhaust ~60 days after Hormuz closure. By late April, antibiotic and metformin shortages begin globally. China controls 70% of India's API imports. WHO's Dubai logistics hub is paralyzed. This one hits in 4 weeks.
3. *The 24-day November gauntlet.* Between Nov 3 (US midterms, 53% oppose the war) and Nov 27 (China's gallium/germanium export ban suspension expires), China holds maximum leverage over a politically wounded US — while Europe faces winter with gas storage at 55-70% (target: 90%). Three independent pressure peaks in 24 days.
4. *Taiwan's 11-day clock.* Taiwan has 11 days of LNG reserves. China doesn't need to invade — just delay tankers as "enhanced customs inspections." Combined with helium shortage hitting TSMC fabs, the chip crisis isn't caused by military strikes. It's caused by thermodynamics.
5. *1 nuclear state becomes 5 in a decade.* Even the best-case scenario leaves Iran with 440.9 kg of 60% enriched uranium as a permanent threshold state. This alone triggers Saudi acquisition via Pakistan (6-24 months). Then Turkey (3-7 years), Japan (6-12 months if it decides), South Korea (1-2 years). The NPT doesn't survive this war.