Yeah, the reason this is going to take so long to shake out is that there can be only one dominant platform. And Microsoft is it. The Web interface even with Ajax is still kludgey in comparison. And things like Apollo from Adobe will take a long time to reach critical mass. The only thing I see chaniging the platform are endeavors like Nick Negroponte's one laptop per child (OLPC), which will force down hardware costs until it's eventually completely off-set by advertising. When PCs are free, a major platform shift can occur. Steve tried to get OSX on OLPC and was rebuffed by Nick, from what I hear.