China buys Russian oil via pipeline and tanker, so they’re not entirely dependent on Gulf crude. They also have more levers to pull at the state level to reduce civilian demand on petroleum. Along with current electrification/alternative energy efforts, that could be a significant reduction in demand. Finally, China has operated nuclear subs for decades, and is actually building a nuclear aircraft carrier. China likely does not think it can compete head-to-head with the US in a conventional naval confrontation, and has invested heavily in missile and drone technology, along with other asymmetric capabilities. It would certainly be painful if the US took over the Persian Gulf, but likely not debilitating.
I did find it interesting that in both Venezuela and Iran, Chinese radar and air defense did not hold up so well, but they’re at least getting a lot of real world test data from it.
The problem is European countries have been on a path towards reducing local refineries, and replaced with imports from Gulf States. ~50% of jet fuel, and up to ~25% of diesel was sourced from the Gulf States, which is now blockaded by the war or offline.
Agree with you that refined products shortage will have the most economic impacts. Gulf States were also the global swing supplier of refined products, with ~20% of waterborne cargos. With Asian refineries (China/Japan/South Korea) also dependent on heavy/medium crude feedstock stuck in the Gulf, fuel production is getting hammered right now from both sides. Countries with local refining capacity will temporarily weather the storm a bit better, but with how interconnected global trade is, short fuel supply will impact everyone, even if its indirectly through higher costs of shipping/transportation/manufacturing/fertilizer, etc.
Spec ops tend to be more averaged sized, with denser builds (as opposed to bulkier muscle mass)(1). Although, quick caveat, take a look at old photos of Vietnam War era special forces vs modern late GWOT; the difference in average muscle mass is rather stark.
Historically, military selection emphasized calisthenics and load carrying capacity (body armor/weapons/rucks) + endurance. Although modern assessments have somewhat shifted towards weightlifting components, calisthenics/rucking are still a major focus. There is generally a disadvantage with height, where longer limb length creates more leverage to overcome, which is a disadvantage in both calisthenics and moving external weight around.
One potential knock-on impact of the strait being effectively closed, is that at some point the gulf states will be forced to shut-in production as local storage fills up and production can’t be exported. That combined with war damage to critical transport/export infrastructure will cause a lag where production can’t meet global demand even when the strait re-opens. Turning oil wells back on is not like flipping on a light switch.
To add to your comment, ~20%-25% of global oil production passes through the AG (Iran is only ~4% of current global production) @ ~21mbpd. The longer that oil can’t get out (Saudi’s have a 5mbpd pipeline to red sea, but only 2mbpd loading capacity), the quicker it will erase the current oil glut and eat into inventories. Most of the discounted oil China has been buying from Iran/Russia has actually been going into inventory. The strait itself is a narrow channel, and the main risk is mines and underwater drones. Sinking a few tankers in the strait would cause a lot of headaches.
Ukraine has been using cheap interceptor drones (models Sting/Bagnet/etc) combined with sensor networks to intercept slower prop driven Geran-2. Then Russia upgraded to jet engine on Geran-3, with higher speeds that are more difficult for prop interceptors to catch. Ukraine switched back to using machine gunners from aircraft to help take those out until they develop faster intercept drones.
Having grown up in churches that began to embrace NAR tenets in the 90s-00s, this particular eschatology gained a foothold across a wide swath of denominations from non-denom/charismatic/baptist all the way to methodist/CoC. In my experience it’s less a retreat from society, and more of a particular strain of religious fundamentalism that seeks to draw a line in the sand against “secular” culture. Most NAR organizations are lead by a “prophet” or leader who followers believe directly hears from God (aka a new apostle). A predominant theme among NAR churches is increasing christian influence in government (i.e. “7 Mountain Mandate” for example). I also recently learned about catholic integralism, which shares similar dominionist goals with NAR, and has gained momentum in the US.
You can also find orange (or skin contact) wine in the US at smaller boutique natural wine shops, which are becoming more common. Orange wines are cultivated in Sonoma and other wine regions in the US as well.
>If you really need something bigger renting a trailer or truck is dirt cheap
It’s neither convenient nor cheap to rent a trailer in much of the US. Major cities have options, rural areas less so. Full disclosure I have a mid-sized pickup, but I recently looked into renting a trailer for a landscaping project that was above the weight limit for my truck. First issue I ran into was that there were not any trailers available for rent anywhere near my location. Second issue was that after factoring in driving distance + rental cost + dump fees, it was ~ the same price just to pay a junk company to haul the materials…and it was not cheap. Anecdotally, my pickup was cheaper than most other vehicle options at the time I bought it, my commute is short (so fuel economy is less an issue), and as a homeowner I use the bed to haul something at least once/month (Unfortunately kei trucks weren’t available at the time). So the cost/benefit/convenience factor of owning a truck over renting a trailer works for me. YMMV.
> I find routine and habits over schedule and calendaring
I find the same. To keep myself honest, I built a simple habit tracking sheet (grid paper; 1 page/month; x axis list items; y axis list days). Keep it simple to reduce friction, no more than a handful of items, and try to stack habits and routines. Focus on anchor points of the day like sleep/work/exercise/nutrition/meal prep/tidy house. I’ll also track non-action items like coffee/alcohol/anxiety/video games/book reading, etc. Include the process as part of end of day wind down and reflection.
I’m on this journey myself; learning to become more emotionally well-regulated, and kinder to myself. For years I had depression, and I used self-flagellation and self-loathing as drivers to motivate myself to do better. In work, hobbies, fitness, relationships…everything. I would unfairly criticize, disdain, and lash out in anger at myself, in ways I would never treat another person. My baseline emotional state skewed negative, and I’ve realized I was suppressing or dissociating from emotions entirely. It took a while to realize I wasn’t coping well. I made improvements over many years time, but sometimes still fall back into old default patterns. I finally hired a therapist to work through stuff and develop better emotional health and cognitive strategies. Started with just checking-in and recognizing emotions, and being more fair and kind to myself, which in turn helps to respond to everyday circumstances more objectively. It has helped immensely, and I don’t think I could have made the same progress without a neutral third party. I highly encourage anyone in a similar place to hire a therapist; it can be hard to find someone you meld with, but it’s worth it.
I’ve experiencing this same issue on every flight now using APP3, and considering returning. Tried multiple different ear tip sizes. Reset and re-paired. It’s not just pressure changes, as it occurs at steady altitude in addition to ascending and descending. I’m very surprised Apple didn’t catch this issue by testing the ANC on aircraft more extensively during product testing, since that is an extremely common use case for ANC headphones. They also generate weird popping/thumping noises while running, or tinny echoes sometimes while scratching my head. Hopefully there is a software fix. AP1 ANC worked just fine (until case failed to charge left earbud).
Thanks for recommending. I was not aware that a fork of Organic Maps had been created, or that longtime contributors to OM had concerns about the project.
Another vote for Organic Maps. I use it as a lightweight maps app for backcountry or traveling in foreign countries where I don’t have a sim card. You can also record tracks in the app, or import .gpx files. In airplane mode it has low impact on battery consumption.
I was also pleasantly surprised to find out iOS Star Chart app (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/star-chart/id345542655) functions entirely offline. Recently used it while camping, and it just needed a GPS coordinates fix to adjust sky map to location.
As someone who uses (and prefers) MIPS screen to AMOLED, here are a few reasons I went that route:
A) User experience: I prefer watches to be tools that do a job, and otherwise to mostly get out of my way. MIPS serves that function well, and is similar to old school LCD displays in that regard. I find illuminated displays to be distracting and draw attention, especially after dark. In these days, where light up screens are pervasive, MIPS provides a more zen experience. It’s “always-on” when I need to view it, but otherwise gets out of my way.
B) Functionality: I use my watch to track daily workouts, and I’m about to go on a multi-day backpacking trek where a Garmin Fenix will be primary GPS device (phone/maps/compass secondary). Being able to view the screen and use maps without excess power drain is more useful for me. I prefer my watch to be a functional tool, and not just an extension of my smartphone. I don’t need a pretty light up screen. Battery life is not just about reducing charging frequency, but also reliability in the backcountry and on long workouts. Which leads to…
C) Longevity: longer battery life = less charging cycles = longer device life. I don’t feel like replacing an expensive device every year or two. MIPS screens are also more durable than AMOLED. I have friends that are using 5+ year old Fenix watches to track daily runs.
Objective truth doesn’t have to be a stark black and white dichotomy. You don’t have to have 100% understanding or knowledge to observe that the probability of evidence is pointing to a certain end result (in this case, humanity is causing rapid changes to earths environment). To state that there is no objective truth is nihilism.
Video comparing P320 to Glock internal safeties: (https://youtu.be/dLm23zJGSL0)
Note: it does appear that P320 has a more robust internal safety design than the P365.
I don’t know if the Sig P320 has a similar firing pin safety design to the P365, but I optioned to go with Springfield Hellcat vs P365 specifically because the Hellcat has two separate safety catch points on the firing pin assembly, thereby eliminating a single point of failure, while the P365 essentially has one (see photos here https://www.reddit.com/r/gunsmithing/comments/f7dgnl/how_saf...). Glock has also has a redundant “two-catch” internal safety design, and has a well established safety record (hellcat just worked better for my needs; glock was an equally good choice from a safety standpoint). It’s common in the US to carry in “ready” configuration (barrel loaded); IMO if you choose to do this, a single point of failure is unacceptable. It’s why hammer fire (with hammer disengaged requiring initial DA trigger pull to push hammer back) can be safer; you can also cover the hammer with thumb while drawing and feel if the trigger is accidentally engaging, helping to prevent a negligent discharge.
Interesting; just went down a rabbit hole on LLM training and math. For this example, it could have simply copied a table from online, but I wasn’t aware how poorly some LLMs perform on even basic math functions. I’ve not run into that issue before.
I did find it interesting that in both Venezuela and Iran, Chinese radar and air defense did not hold up so well, but they’re at least getting a lot of real world test data from it.