My team participates in a World Cup prediction league, I don’t really know much about football teams but figured I’d build a prediction model to try and top the charts. Uses a Poisson distribution model and Monte Carlo simulations. I wrote up the process and the maths as well as generated some inline SVGs (no chart library). Next working on whether Dixon-Coles low scoring correction would have had an impact on the outcome and in which direction. Link to the write up if anyone is interested:
https://haywire.blog/posts/i-built-a-robot-instead-of-having...