Wow, that’s an egregious chart crime. Surely there’s a way to make a chart that isn’t so dishonest. Just plotting the SPR level would make the same point honestly.
Hmm in my experience (I've done a lot of head-to-heads), Opus 4.6 is a weaker reviewer than GPT 5.4 xhigh. 5.4 xhigh gives very deep, very high-signal reviews and catches serious bugs much more reliably. I think it's possible you're observing Opus 4.6's higher baseline acceptance rate instead of GPT 5.4's higher implementation quality bar.
I find Opus 4.5 very, very strong at matching the prevailing conventions/idioms/abstractions in a large, established codebase. But I guess I'm quite sensitive to this kind of thing so I explicitly ask Opus 4.5 to read adjacent code which is perhaps why it does it so well. All it takes is a sentence or two, though.
tried replicating w/ a slightly different system prompt w/ sonnet-4.5 and got some different results, esp w/ progressive to conservative questions. Prompting seems pretty load-bearing here
AI tools have been so good for me for making home-cooked software. As a new-ish parent, it’s so much easier to do stuff. I don’t need to go into extra-deep focus mode to learn how to center a div for the hundredth time, I can spend that precious focus time on the problems that matter / the core motivation.
I had a good laugh at the image showing that 2018 had a “quality focus”
I think Jonathan Blow gave his “Preventing the Collapse of Civilization” talk (much stronger treatment of the subject matter) around that time, also about how software quality was only going down
this is not true unless you’re doing some kind of adjustment. For t bills, us03m yields were much higher 30-40 years ago.
> US equities are at all time highs
this is true
> USD falling day over day, month over month, year over year
if falling means inflation, yes in banal way. If falling means relative to other currencies, that’s the last 9 months or so. Previously the USD was quite strong
> US debt is falling in value because no one wants to buy it
this appears to be the hinge of the argument? It is not true. 10y yields have been down / flat since beginning of 2025 (i.e., price up). also tsy auctions remain well-subscribed / within historical range