Ignoring the fact that this article doesn't clearly state the "evidence" that the FTC found in this "conspiracy", it misunderstands what occurred with US Shale producers from 2010-now.
In the 2010s, US Shale Producers got hyped up on strong oil prices and the explosion of fracking. They massively overproduced, leading to the price cratering and a large majority of producers going out of business. Oil and gas was in severe distress from the late 2010s to the negative price drama in 2020.
When prices rebounded in early 2020s, there was a lot of scar tissue in the industry about overproduction. Producers are now extremely conservative. They are also well aware that clean energy is on the horizon and want to draw out this good cycle as long as they can.
Opposite to what the conspiracy theory states, OPEC and US Shale do not want prices to go too high in the short term, as this shock would accelerate the clean energy transition. They definitely want strong prices, but this $80-100 range is probably the sweet spot. Below $80, they might pull back, which is what we see from OPEC. But this certainly isn't some "conspiracy" to elevate oil to $200/barrel. These participants are sophisticated and are not that shortsighted.
I think the typical Democrat-Party view that "oil bad" and "oil corrupt" lacks nuance. It also ignores the profligate government spending that is driving excessive consumption (travel, etc.) causing a lot of these market dislocations the past several years. Now, they want to point the finger at some grand conspiracy. This seems not far off from Q-Anon on the other side of the political aisle.
At first glance, it seems this would even the playing field. However, large players will allocate resources to spinning up instances and overloading machines. Similar to how we're seeing the DDOS shenanigans going on in crypto.
Net-net, it still benefits startup quant shops and sophisticated independents. Most retail isn't doing HFT or really any quant. But for people wanting to have their own shops, this is a better version than having to build hardware and colo.
It is rational in many cases to gamble at low levels of wealth. The difference between $1,000 in net worth and $0, or $10K and 0, is infinitesimal. At extremely low levels of utility, it doesn't really matter.
Kelly criterion only applies if you have a substantial bag already. Then, you can size your bets according to probability.
For the lower wealth strata, they need to target convex payoffs, however. Lottery, meme coins, otm options (like the Gamestop situation) make sense. Things with a more linear payoff, such as sports betting (only double if you win the coin flip), less so.
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