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oezi

2,921 karmajoined قبل 7 سنوات

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oezi
·أمس·discuss
I get the bearish case but it is easy to forget how much difference good vs bad politics can have and that politics isn't primarily a game of facts. It is an optimization problem under many unknowns and its history is littered with academic theories debunked and hard won compromises.
oezi
·أمس·discuss
Forecasting that the GPU build-out will reach 100 trillion USD in 2034 is wild (that's triple the US GDP in 8 years). And another 10x within 2 years.

I am not sure where they believe that amount of capital could come from. It would require central bank level money printing never seen before.

https://ai-2040.com/supplements/compute-supplement
oezi
·أول أمس·discuss
Can you elaborate?
oezi
·قبل 3 أيام·discuss
I track the subscription value against API rates and you get between 13-20k at current rates. When Fable launched I got 32k for a short time. 500 USD per day is thus very little.
oezi
·قبل 4 أيام·discuss
Sorry, but most Europeans don't use the term anymore since the Nazis tried to impose a catastrophic societal order based on their race ideology.

White people were only white if they could show bloodlines reaching back generations. One jewish great-grandfather would make you intelligible for the Arian race. They would laugh at your notion of white vs black.
oezi
·قبل 7 أيام·discuss
I said nothing about that. But there are tipping points where buying too much is actually wasteful.
oezi
·قبل 7 أيام·discuss
Since toilet paper is mostly non-perishable it shouldn't really matter, right? But for anything that goes bad there is also a tipping point where you bought too much and have things go to waste.
oezi
·قبل 7 أيام·discuss
I think the poster is indeed criticizing bulk shopping. I would then to agree that shopping in bulk makes it easier to overprovision or to have things go to waste or being bought superfluously. I am also not sure about it being cheaper in total because my experience with bulk sellers is that they achieve their profit margins by their product mix, so selling you some cheap items as loss leaders or discount items and recouping on others that you buy at the same time. Doing weekly shopping trips at different supermarkets can counteract that by letting you buy more various promotional items.

Of course it comes down to how much personal time you then have to spend on shopping to drive your bill down.
oezi
·قبل 7 أيام·discuss
If you have ever watched a deliver truck on their tracking app to crawl its way to you from stop to stop you realize the most optimistic timing is maybe 1 minute per package. Assuming the truck, driver, gas could be operated for 60 USD/hr the marginal cost seems more like 1 USD per package, but likely more.
oezi
·قبل 15 يومًا·discuss
A 200 USD Clause 20x subscription gives you 13,000 USD equivalent in API credits. And those are believed to profitable for Anthropic while the 200 USD are properly not, if used to a large extend.

If the subscription is gutted by factor 2/5/10/20/65 to make it more profitable for Anthropic it will be harder for users to justify the subscription.

On the other hand 13,000 USD in API credits can go a very long way if used ergonomically. For instance using a max context length of 200k is multiplying your reach in comparison to 1m context.
oezi
·قبل 15 يومًا·discuss
If you don't reset sessions eagerly or compact regularly it is easy to consume billions in input tokens while Claude churns away.
oezi
·قبل 17 يومًا·discuss
Energy prices for Gas play a role as do influx of refugess feom Ukraine for metrics such as GDP per person, but the key thing is China having reached the level of manufacturing prowess to eat into the German main industries (cars, machinery).
oezi
·قبل 22 يومًا·discuss
This is what I use for making changes to local settings.json. Works nicely.
oezi
·قبل 22 يومًا·discuss
On paper you are right. You can file an NDA. But in reality you can't prove that the product on the market (the drug you are adding an NDA to) is sufficiently under your control to enable you to claim that it is safe and effective. Only a manufacturer can control the product. If you want to piggyback on top of an existing product in the market, you have to become a manufacturer or sign a contract with an existing one.

You are absolutely right about the incentives. There are absolutely none except to help humanity which is why only hospitals and universities are doing these off label studies.
oezi
·قبل 23 يومًا·discuss
The patents aren't hindering off-label use. The hinder commercial exploitation by others.
oezi
·قبل 23 يومًا·discuss
The doctors are assuming liability or let the patient sign waivers, which I guess is fine. But the lack of a pathway prevents a lot of commercial possibilities. For instance it is almost impossible to build a business around supporting off-label use cases (for instance selling necessary accessories).
oezi
·قبل 23 يومًا·discuss
Such studies are great but there is no regulatory pathway to extend the use of existing drugs for new indications of use without the consent of the manufacturer (or becoming a manufacturer yourself).

This means such studies can give more clarity on which off-label use is beneficial but it can't be an officially allowed usage.
oezi
·قبل 26 يومًا·discuss
That's a grim view on a politician who - looking from the outside - is just thinking and talking like a normal human.

There are a lot of fine shades between a free riding communism and cut-throat capitalism. Finding workable balances is a key aspects of politics.
oezi
·قبل 28 يومًا·discuss
Very nice. Are you using the roman roads which were also on HN a couple of weeks ago?
oezi
·قبل 29 يومًا·discuss
Well, I mean Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, PDD/Temu, Baidu, Bilibili, NIO, XPeng...

These aren't in the CSI 300 and the legal constructs of listing them via HK or other stock exchanges is unfortunately often questionable.