Long-term is not what ppl are arguing for and that's not what the stock multiples imply.
Companies like Nvidia, up 1000% since 2023, clearly cannot rely on "oh you'd get returns in 5-15 years".
They (Jensen and others) are arguing for AGI in a year (he said this at a talk at Stanford ~ 1yr ago).
Long-term, ie 5-15 years there will be many technologies that change the world. Some will come from transformative tech, others will come from other places.
Financial instruments, investors etc have timelines.
Blowing timelines can risk the future if not properly aligned, especially in correlated risk. See the internet bubble, where it was clearly important but took 15 years to recover after the 2000 boom/bust.
In general, longevity risk can include the financial instrument timelines, it can include other technical factors about the technology, and it can also be that the boom serves important people too soon with gains, real limits are imposed, and then the whole system resets until the real limits are overcome or resolved.
"we could find a nail for this hammer... or we could just hammer everything until we find the nail or make too much money hammering for a bit then sell in may and go away".
My "oh sh* moment" with GenAI is ongoing and is watching all the correlated financials unwind when TSMC said "we can only support so much"[1].
Very few things in life experience exponential growth and assembled systems don't often stay that way if they don't become sigmoidal. ie its exponential and end is nigh xor its exponential then sigmoidal xor linear.
Also a bit hilarious to believe that a single 3 month cycle at TSMC could determine a severe amount of propped valutions.
While Vivado/Vitis etc do amazing things, I challenge anyone to find a person who enjoys using them without TCL interfaces.
These tools do need attention, it's too bad there's not a better model than subscription bases like these.
Pretty sure, based on TCL base, that these tools were native Unix at some point, so the no-linux-free-beer vs windows-free-beer version are hilarious...
Ultimately one has, with so many vendor tools, a windows box somewhere so make it a remote compile machine.
Seems senators had questions about why CISA was scaling back efforts related to election security[1]. Tulsi's resignation today seems interestingly timed to when this became public.
reciprocal tariffs had put the non-tech and tech economy in stasis (except for hardware for AI). they are also are better than tax breaks and will supercharge bottom lines for large corporations once reclaimed and if prices remain high.
also if you want to test/force ai adoption you have to put pressure by firing some
now wars will put us into further stasis or decline via increased inflation pressure.
people have been talking about "models of models" for arbitration opportunity in inference for about 1.5 yrs.
Arbitration idea: if a user doesn't need high QOS of newest LLM, slip them a cheaper LLM, run their query at reduced quality. measure if they cost you fewer $s in the lower QOS. => profit.
For chatgpt the arbitration opportunity looks more like "we could allocate this amount of gpu to training or inference, we are losing money if we offer the highest quality infra"
In addition there's other interesting economics scaling that can be done outside of "models of models" that are far more profitable. I won't go over all of them (and some of them I feel are quite powerful) but the laziest one is that subscription models count on some zombie users as a counterweight to highly expensive single users, and as a source of stable cashflow.
Zombie users are ones that are paying for sub but not actively or barely using the service
Knowing the restriction goes to 18k certainly says that either S-A or A-S reach must be limited but the as your post points out no buffer between MANPAD actual range and the limit imposed. I think unlikely to say MANPAD, specifically.
There's a small private airfield to the west with only a single victor airway connecting to el-paso. the victors end at 17999 ft, effectively cutting traffic for non-commercial or non-business jet operators.
Closure of the victor airway there seems, again limiting airborne craft due to airborne hazards.
Hazards in the air, near the surface that are, seemingly, unplanned with a cone pointing at mexico.
That's kind of the most anyone will get until more info, could be some urgent testing of some capability or response to small craft (drones) coming over the boarder. Emergency timing could be to garner interest or emphasize importance, which works well politically.
Las Cruces International Airport and Dana Jetport are unaffected.
If you have references for these I would appreciate what you can find.
In general I believe abundance of resources exist in modern society and that there is less and less consideration for the lives of others, not in the "generational trauma" sense, but in the real basics of food, water and shelter.
A lot of people point to hard problems such as the "food miles problem"[1] but are, in many cases, conflicts that drive scarcity for one purpose or another.
It means it is not by default, which as we know, is a powerful choice these days.
ie enterprise customers will enable it, consumers will do it if they are tech savvy and your mom/dad/granddaughter/grandson/nephew/niece will have the default option.
when you are at home you will have nat and when you are not you will be uniquely identified.
NAT is not inherently a security feature, however where NAT happens is somewhat important.
A local router that I can control deals with how to map from my public IP to my private IPs.
This is not security but is obfuscation of the traffic.
Obfuscation becomes almost impossible in the IPV6 context where NAT isn't necessary, it becomes optional, and given the likely trajectory that option will be exercised by sophisticated enterprise customers only.
Geopolitical and other risks exist here. The future isnt doom and gloom but it isnt exponentials and sunshine either.