Australia’s hottest day on record(bbc.com)
bbc.com
Australia’s hottest day on record
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50817963
77 comments
How is the government response (or lack off) affecting the debate around climate change in Australia? If I understand correctly, the current Australian government does not believe in human caused climate change but still enjoys domestic support from voters. Is that changing?
We had a similar, less serious event in Sweden last year during an extraordinary summer with a lot of forest fires, during an election year. The forest fires did not seem to change voters' mind much on the issue, unfortunately. Then again, we allocated a lot more resources than usual to fight the fires, even asking other countries for help.
We had a similar, less serious event in Sweden last year during an extraordinary summer with a lot of forest fires, during an election year. The forest fires did not seem to change voters' mind much on the issue, unfortunately. Then again, we allocated a lot more resources than usual to fight the fires, even asking other countries for help.
> How is the government response (or lack off) affecting the debate around climate change in Australia?
Denial of resources thanks to denial of debate in the parliament.
> If I understand correctly, the current Australian government does not believe in human caused climate change but still enjoys domestic support from voters. Is that changing?
Not really. The governments strategy is currently to isolate and intimidate the concerned (scare campaigns, proposal of laws to outlaw "environmental protest terrorism"), whilst repeatedly telling the rest of the country: "we're fine", "we're doing our bit", "the problem doesn't exist" and "we can't survive without coal".
Denial of resources thanks to denial of debate in the parliament.
> If I understand correctly, the current Australian government does not believe in human caused climate change but still enjoys domestic support from voters. Is that changing?
Not really. The governments strategy is currently to isolate and intimidate the concerned (scare campaigns, proposal of laws to outlaw "environmental protest terrorism"), whilst repeatedly telling the rest of the country: "we're fine", "we're doing our bit", "the problem doesn't exist" and "we can't survive without coal".
To expand on the parent's latter, said PM told kids, during the school climate strike, to stay in school and stop worrying about climate change. This is among many other statements over the course of his tenure:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-warns-again...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/26/scott-mo...
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-warns-again...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/26/scott-mo...
I don't really have anything besdies my biased anecdata with which to go by, but I think those who vote for the current incumbant largely don't really register climate change as a point of concern for them. It doesn't directly affect them in any noticeable way in their day-to-day lives, so they just keep on prioritising other things that do. Climate change, for them, is simply not an election-deciding issue. Taxes, jobs & growth, investment tax laws potentially impacting their investment returns, etc. register on their radar far more.
Also, both major parties here (in particular the conservatives) are beholden to the incredibly powerful mining lobby. The current PM held up a piece of coal in parliament as a prop and told the opposition not to be scared of it, for example. We did once actually have a functional carbon tax, but it got completely destroyed once the party that brought it in lost, in no small part due to the major offensive brought on by the mining lobby that secured their defeat.
There's an incredible political incentive to minimise any links to climate change, and to not do anything that impacts the mining industry's profit margins. I don't really hold any hopes that we'll see structural change in either the political sphere. Additionally, it's my opinion that given Australia's incredible run of prosperity in so many ways, many (most?) voters here have become very insular, selfish and self-serving in their attitudes, and ignore externalised/delayed-impact issues such as climate change in a large way.
Also, both major parties here (in particular the conservatives) are beholden to the incredibly powerful mining lobby. The current PM held up a piece of coal in parliament as a prop and told the opposition not to be scared of it, for example. We did once actually have a functional carbon tax, but it got completely destroyed once the party that brought it in lost, in no small part due to the major offensive brought on by the mining lobby that secured their defeat.
There's an incredible political incentive to minimise any links to climate change, and to not do anything that impacts the mining industry's profit margins. I don't really hold any hopes that we'll see structural change in either the political sphere. Additionally, it's my opinion that given Australia's incredible run of prosperity in so many ways, many (most?) voters here have become very insular, selfish and self-serving in their attitudes, and ignore externalised/delayed-impact issues such as climate change in a large way.
Not to mention pushing his “religious freedom” bullshit legislation and while people’s homes, wildlife and infrastructure are still burning.
The people who are voting don't care about debate on the internet, so theres no point in posting here. Also brigading is pretty regular on the internet, so if you are reading this you are lucky enough to have seen it on the way to it being voted down to oblivion. So you are only going to see one sided posts, and the people who can make a difference don't see them anyway.
This very issue lead to massive inaccuracies in polling in the last election - resulting in a belief that a left facing change was going to occur and instead a massive majority the other way resulted.
This very issue lead to massive inaccuracies in polling in the last election - resulting in a belief that a left facing change was going to occur and instead a massive majority the other way resulted.
Just as a matter of accuracy, I don't know if I'd call it a massive majority.
You're right in that the polls got it wrong, and everyone (including arguably the current government) thought the conservatives were done for.
But the end results, iirc, were 77 seats for the conservatives, 68 seats labor. A one seat gain from the previous election for the conservatives and a one seat loss for labor, with a total swing of just over 1% in the two party preferred vote.
For context, a party needs 76 seats to form government.
I feel it's more accurate to say our country remains quite polarised.
You're right in that the polls got it wrong, and everyone (including arguably the current government) thought the conservatives were done for.
But the end results, iirc, were 77 seats for the conservatives, 68 seats labor. A one seat gain from the previous election for the conservatives and a one seat loss for labor, with a total swing of just over 1% in the two party preferred vote.
For context, a party needs 76 seats to form government.
I feel it's more accurate to say our country remains quite polarised.
Rupert Murdoch polished his skills in the Oz before moving to the UK and US. No surprised that a similar style of polarization exists down under as in other parts of the Anglosphere.
I see what you mean about the bushfires causing toxic air: https://www.windy.com/-CO-concentration-cosc?cosc,-6.461,135...
Here in Hawaii we've obliterated temperature records. July, August, September, and November were the hottest respective months ever recorded. For 20 straight consecutive days from Aug to September we set new records for hottest temperatures in a really brutal heat wave. August 2019 was the warmest global ocean temperature on record.
It made me realize that while global average temperature is scheduled to increase ~2 degrees, that is just the average. Some places on Earth won't see that much change because of regional climate systems, but other places in the changing vortex will have way more than just 2 degrees. The general consensus here is that 95 degree Honolulu is the new normal.
It made me realize that while global average temperature is scheduled to increase ~2 degrees, that is just the average. Some places on Earth won't see that much change because of regional climate systems, but other places in the changing vortex will have way more than just 2 degrees. The general consensus here is that 95 degree Honolulu is the new normal.
On the other side of the world, we had record temperatures across Europe as well this year. Fewer deaths than the 2003 heatwave though as people were generally better informed of the risks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave
These events are only going to become more frequent.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave
These events are only going to become more frequent.
> we had record temperatures across Europe
For the record - only in Western Europe - due to changes in circulation patterns. Central and Eastern Europe had rather cool summer and records from beggining of XX century still stand.
For the record - only in Western Europe - due to changes in circulation patterns. Central and Eastern Europe had rather cool summer and records from beggining of XX century still stand.
> It made me realize that while global average temperature is scheduled to increase ~2 degrees, that is just the average.
Yep
"...temperatures in Siberia up by as much as 35C above historical averages this month"
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/27/arctic-w...
Yep
"...temperatures in Siberia up by as much as 35C above historical averages this month"
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/27/arctic-w...
And tomorrow it’s forecasted to be 42°C in my inner Sydney coastal suburb. This is insane.
Normally these +40c days have happened a fair bit later in the summer. To experience 43c on the road in Melbourne today so early feels ominous for what's to come.
This is not doing any good for the fire situation either.
I'm amazed by the fact that we're still allowing new coal projects to go up.
This is not doing any good for the fire situation either.
I'm amazed by the fact that we're still allowing new coal projects to go up.
That’s hot but normal for Sydney.
A few +40C days in high summer (late Jan/early Feb) are not that unusual, but days of consistent +40C days in mid-December should be sending alarm bells ringing. This is the new `normal', but wasn't like this before a few years ago.
Yeah, just hit 46c at our place north of Melbourne CBD... Crazy times.
Will easily be broken in a couple days. Some places forecast for 46C by the end of the week.
We had a day or two of 48 C in Adelaide earlier in the year which I’ve never experienced before. Walking around in 43 C heat today didn’t feel as bad in comparison!
Still 39 C at 7:30 pm, getting up to 45C on Friday. It’s going to be a bad summer.
Still 39 C at 7:30 pm, getting up to 45C on Friday. It’s going to be a bad summer.
Australia is a big place. 40-42C is not uncommon for a summer heatwave day in one city, but as an average across the whole continent it's unusual.
FWIW It hit 39.7 here in Melbourne: http://www.baywx.com.au/melbtemp2.html
FWIW It hit 39.7 here in Melbourne: http://www.baywx.com.au/melbtemp2.html
That's a funny way to spell "Hasn't happened in the last 150 years people have kept records".
Wow, I just realized that their summer is only starting now, even with all the fires they already have.
I've read that current fires consumed about 8x the area that is average in this time of year.
Crazy
Crazy
This interactive map from the Guardian really drove it home for me: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-inter...
The official interactive map for the NSW Rural Fire Service is also an eye opener, as it shows the actual areas burnt in roughly real-time.
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me
In the past month it started out as isolated black patches, which have now merged into fewer but bigger black patches. Given the heat predicted over the next few days and lack of predicted rain until January, there is every chance that more of the fires will merge. The NSW fires are spread over a distance of 1000km, with the larger individual fires being about 200km in length. The map shows only NSW's fires, so multiply that view by about 6 to account for the rest of the mainland.
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me
In the past month it started out as isolated black patches, which have now merged into fewer but bigger black patches. Given the heat predicted over the next few days and lack of predicted rain until January, there is every chance that more of the fires will merge. The NSW fires are spread over a distance of 1000km, with the larger individual fires being about 200km in length. The map shows only NSW's fires, so multiply that view by about 6 to account for the rest of the mainland.
Expect that to be broken again within about 3-4 days.
Is this making any dent in the government's strategy of investing everything they can into fossil fuels?
Australians are allergic to nuclear power but solar is ok I think
I don't know if Australian's are genuinely allergic to nuclear power. Some people make a lot of noise about it, but some people make a lot of noise about wind too.
And it's unlikely we will ever find out, because it's so expensive compared to the alternatives. If nuclear had of delivered on its promise of "too cheap to meter", my bet is the things would be all over the planet like a rash how - rather like wind turbines are today, squawking nimby's be damned.
And it's unlikely we will ever find out, because it's so expensive compared to the alternatives. If nuclear had of delivered on its promise of "too cheap to meter", my bet is the things would be all over the planet like a rash how - rather like wind turbines are today, squawking nimby's be damned.
No shortage of sunlight in the Oz.
Nuclear is going to have to be a discussion topic for the world, me thinks, but the Aussies are only ~27 million people spread across a sunnny continent -- they might be able to swing solar + tesla batteries for some time.
Nuclear is going to have to be a discussion topic for the world, me thinks, but the Aussies are only ~27 million people spread across a sunnny continent -- they might be able to swing solar + tesla batteries for some time.
You can persuade them to invest in nuclear micro-reactors and hydro-electric.
Can I though? From what I gather, there is no lobby in the world, maybe outside Asia, that is pro-nuclear.
[deleted]
I think the short answer is no. [1] and [2] are a good introduction to our current situation (as reported by center-left media).
[1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/australia-climate-car...
[2] https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/wherethebloodyhellareyo...
[1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/australia-climate-car...
[2] https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/wherethebloodyhellareyo...
If anyone wonders how that looks like on a map... https://www.windy.com/-25.324/133.594?temp,-25.681,133.264,5...
(Zoom out a bit)
(Zoom out a bit)
Any hotter and Midnight Oil is going to have update their lyrics: https://genius.com/Midnight-oil-beds-are-burning-lyrics
Obviously, this is a conspiracy by big solar to inflate their stock prices and to defraud innocent petrochemical execs from their hard earned bonuses!!! Wake up sheeple! /s
Where some people see a disaster, we at SCUM Corp see an opportunity. All that burned forest is brand new real state!
Don't forget a heatwave that last 1 day or 2 is mostly ok.
Once it lasts 4 or 5 or more, heat exhaustion kicks in, because one's body cannot rest from the stress caused by heat.
Once it lasts 4 or 5 or more, heat exhaustion kicks in, because one's body cannot rest from the stress caused by heat.
This is similar to what is there in India during summer. Isn't this more problemematic in Australia because of ozone layer depletion [1]?
[1] https://www.environment.gov.au/protection/ozone/ozone-scienc...
[1] https://www.environment.gov.au/protection/ozone/ozone-scienc...
I was under the impression that parts of the ozone have been repairing..
It is, but there was a lot of damage and it will be a long time before it’s back to normal.
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/30602
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/30602
They are, but CFCs are so potent and long lasting that even with the restoration it's going to be about another 50 years before it's "fixed". IIRC it took a couple of decades or more after the global CFC ban for it to even stop getting worse...
Though I know it wasn't your intent, I just want to call out explicitly that ozone layer depletion and global warming are two separate mechanisms.
Yes, CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons, the molecules that destroy the ozone layer) are also strong greenhouse gases, but they are present in such small amounts that their effect on global warming is negligible.
In the case of the ozone layer, we took action in time and the ozone layer is repairing well [1].
(Somewhat coincidentally - also from the same source - I just learned that warmer global temperatures actually inhibit ozone layer depletion.)
[1] https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/2019-ozone-hole-is...
Yes, CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons, the molecules that destroy the ozone layer) are also strong greenhouse gases, but they are present in such small amounts that their effect on global warming is negligible.
In the case of the ozone layer, we took action in time and the ozone layer is repairing well [1].
(Somewhat coincidentally - also from the same source - I just learned that warmer global temperatures actually inhibit ozone layer depletion.)
[1] https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/2019-ozone-hole-is...
Ozone depletion simply means the sun is more damaging. You burn easier, and you get cancer easier.
The long heatwave problems, exhaustion, dehydration, exacerbated fires and so on might be exacerbated in some parts of the country but not to a great extent. If you take the usual precautions (sunscreen, hat, etc.) you shouldn't see an effect.
The long heatwave problems, exhaustion, dehydration, exacerbated fires and so on might be exacerbated in some parts of the country but not to a great extent. If you take the usual precautions (sunscreen, hat, etc.) you shouldn't see an effect.
Given the heat, solar thermal plants would be a better bet than solar panels, specially given the interior is very sparsely populated and pretty hot.
Unless thermal solar plants are affected negatively by the heat too?
Unless thermal solar plants are affected negatively by the heat too?
afair they already produce more electricity than needed and run their plants something like every other day (read here on HN, but don't have the link atm) because they can't store the excess.
The other issue is that too much solar energy in the grid is intefering with existing coal plants due to the way energy pricing and distribution works. It's a bit of a mess but raw production isn't the biggest issue right now.
Half the continent on fire and record temperatures. I wonder how many people already died from this. Are there any numbers available? It must be really hard to breathe, especially for elderly people.
This is already a classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIy0t5P0CUQ
Afterwards join the folks on /r/collapse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIy0t5P0CUQ
Afterwards join the folks on /r/collapse.
And in Nordic countries I’ve honestly heard people say that the fact that it’s pretty cold right now is evidence against global warming. That whole ”global” part really trips people up.
Does anyone know how to explain this nice and clear to people who aren’t that well versed in variances and means? I really struggle.
Does anyone know how to explain this nice and clear to people who aren’t that well versed in variances and means? I really struggle.
It’s more complicated than it appears. Europe, for instance, may indeed get colder as a result of the warm ocean flows from the west being cut off by melting ice from the Arctic.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/jun/21/globalwa...
Hot and dry in Canberra today, and the smoke from the fires is insane.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/jun/21/globalwa...
Hot and dry in Canberra today, and the smoke from the fires is insane.
I forget the correct name for the event, but there's good precedent.
At the end of the last ice age, during the large scale melting, there was a great North American lake formed of melt water, held back by glaciers. When that finally melted into the Atlantic, enough freshwater was dumped to turn off the thermo haline circulation (inc Gulf Stream). Europe tipped into another mini ice age, as the whole globe warmed.
At the end of the last ice age, during the large scale melting, there was a great North American lake formed of melt water, held back by glaciers. When that finally melted into the Atlantic, enough freshwater was dumped to turn off the thermo haline circulation (inc Gulf Stream). Europe tipped into another mini ice age, as the whole globe warmed.
"The Younger Dryas was the most recent and longest of several interruptions to the gradual warming of the Earth's climate since the severe LGM, about 27,000 to 24,000 years BP. The change was relatively sudden, taking place in decades, and it resulted in a decline of 2 to 6°C (3.6 to 10.8°F) and advances of glaciers and drier conditions, over much of the temperate Northern Hemisphere. It is thought to have been caused by a decline in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which transports warm water from the Equator towards the North Pole, in turn thought to have been caused by an influx of fresh, cold water from North America to the Atlantic. "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...
Thank you!
It might end up true on average, but my home country in central/eastern Europe (Slovakia) is definitely getting warmer. Long harsh winters of the childhood are gone (having snow 3 months in a row feels surreal these days), ticks and other creepers which were not present in the area I grew up are not very common (altitude cca 750m).
I think what most people have trouble realizing is that global warming indeed is a chaotic shift in many weather patterns and only overall average is rising. Ie it might just rain more during summer due to changed water circulation, which will take average yearly temperature down. Most people equate global warming with less snow during winter and heat waves in the summer and imagine it as a equal rise of say +2 all over the place, spread over whole year.
I think what most people have trouble realizing is that global warming indeed is a chaotic shift in many weather patterns and only overall average is rising. Ie it might just rain more during summer due to changed water circulation, which will take average yearly temperature down. Most people equate global warming with less snow during winter and heat waves in the summer and imagine it as a equal rise of say +2 all over the place, spread over whole year.
Farmers in Australia have been pointing out for a while now the higher temperatures isn't the worst aspect of global warming. They can plan for and work around higher temperatures by planting different crops, irrigation or whatever.
What they are finding hard to handle is the increasing variability. This was driven home to be when an interviewed farmer said they plant 3 crops now, whereas the used to bet on one - which ever one would handle the predicted conditions. Now they have no idea what the conditions will be, so the plant 3 crops in the hopes that one will do OK and crossed fingers - the others won't be a right off.
The "pretty cold right now" is the same thing at work. You had record high temps earlier this year. Now you are having an unusual cold snap. This about how the effects the poor bugger trying to grow something.
What they are finding hard to handle is the increasing variability. This was driven home to be when an interviewed farmer said they plant 3 crops now, whereas the used to bet on one - which ever one would handle the predicted conditions. Now they have no idea what the conditions will be, so the plant 3 crops in the hopes that one will do OK and crossed fingers - the others won't be a right off.
The "pretty cold right now" is the same thing at work. You had record high temps earlier this year. Now you are having an unusual cold snap. This about how the effects the poor bugger trying to grow something.
[deleted]
Not true. We used to have snow here in Finland at this time of the year, but nowadays we are mostly waiting to have snow for Chistmas at least.
It’s “climate change”, not just global warming.
Although this is 100% true, saying that does come across as shifting the goalposts.
Part of the problem is that a decade before I was born, enough newspapers breathlessly reported “scientists” “predicting” “a new ice age”. Despite the fact those headlines misrepresented the scientific consensus of the time so badly that it’s appropriate for me to put all those scare quotes in that sentence, the meme remains potent.
Part of the problem is that a decade before I was born, enough newspapers breathlessly reported “scientists” “predicting” “a new ice age”. Despite the fact those headlines misrepresented the scientific consensus of the time so badly that it’s appropriate for me to put all those scare quotes in that sentence, the meme remains potent.
That seems to have been very specifically just in the US. The rest of the world did not breathlessly report a coming ice age. UK and Europe barely noticed. Here in the UK I can remember just two pieces about it, in the end of the news "silly stuff and wacky ideas" slot. Don't believe Horizon, Equinox or any of the others ever covered it, even though there was one or two episodes every series for outlier and controversial ideas, and I watched them religiously back then.
I had a remaindered paperback I bought around 1980 about the coming dawn of a new ice age. Firmly in the realm of wacky conspiracy theory next to Chariot of the Gods, even in the late 70s.
I had a remaindered paperback I bought around 1980 about the coming dawn of a new ice age. Firmly in the realm of wacky conspiracy theory next to Chariot of the Gods, even in the late 70s.
That’s ironic, given that I’m from the UK and it was my British teachers in my secondary school who first made me aware of the meme.
Interesting, I wonder what sources they were relying on.
I recall it as something of a silly minority idea of the time, that had its moment. And that it was just a moment -- far less of a moment than Chariot of the Gods that did get TV programmes and discussion off the back of its idiocy. I don't ever remember seeing it in the papers we got at home. Maybe it got exposure via the Daily Mail or similar lover of fake and dodgy news or outrage - never read those.
It was only much, much later I heard it was taken far more seriously in the US, with pieces in media that should perhaps have known better, or checked sources...
I recall it as something of a silly minority idea of the time, that had its moment. And that it was just a moment -- far less of a moment than Chariot of the Gods that did get TV programmes and discussion off the back of its idiocy. I don't ever remember seeing it in the papers we got at home. Maybe it got exposure via the Daily Mail or similar lover of fake and dodgy news or outrage - never read those.
It was only much, much later I heard it was taken far more seriously in the US, with pieces in media that should perhaps have known better, or checked sources...
[deleted]
It's actually global warming, because the globe is warming _as a whole_.
Call it global warming. If you call it climate change it means that you are admitting global warming is not real. Global warming is subset of climate change, it is perfectly ok to discuss global warming without discussing climate change.
To top it all off, the Government is refusing to grant the firefighters additional resources to actually contain the fires[5].
[0] https://www.sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/prime-minister-scott-mo...
[1] https://myfirewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/
[2] https://twitter.com/healthy_climate/status/12042163739597250...
[3] https://www.9news.com.au/world/nsw-news-sydney-bushfire-smok...
[4] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/sydne...
[5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/australia-bushfires-c...