Weaponizing disinformation can bring down a city’s power grid(journals.plos.org)
journals.plos.org
Weaponizing disinformation can bring down a city’s power grid
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236517
51 comments
Cyber Squirrel 1 tracked animal-inflicted power outages around the world, up until early 2019: https://cybersquirrel1.com/
> "They like the taste of the insulation on the cabling, so they start chewing on it, and they keep chewing on it, until [...] and that's a bad day for the squirrel."
From: https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/raccoon-blamed-for-seattle-... at 2 min 50 s.
From: https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/raccoon-blamed-for-seattle-... at 2 min 50 s.
My favorite power outage story is the 1998 San Francisco / Peninsula outage. Contractors were working on a substation so they disconnected the 115 kV line and strapped it to ground to protect against stray current. When they were done, they powered up the line. Unfortunately, they forgot to remove the ground straps.
It turns out that the power grid doesn't like it when you connect 115 kV directly to ground. By the time the ground straps vaporized, the fluctuations caused all the generators in San Francisco to go offline, cutting power to a million people.
Bringing the power grid back up took hours. Among other problems, they discovered that the SCADA modems in several substations ran off AC without backup, so they couldn't access the substations remotely when the power was down. Oops.
https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/System%20Disturbance%20Report...
It turns out that the power grid doesn't like it when you connect 115 kV directly to ground. By the time the ground straps vaporized, the fluctuations caused all the generators in San Francisco to go offline, cutting power to a million people.
Bringing the power grid back up took hours. Among other problems, they discovered that the SCADA modems in several substations ran off AC without backup, so they couldn't access the substations remotely when the power was down. Oops.
https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/System%20Disturbance%20Report...
One squirrel shouldn't be able to bring a whole grid down. Grids are supposed to be resilient and have a couple of safety features
A squirrel could bring power to a street down, or maybe a neighborhood. In the same way falling trees do
A squirrel could bring power to a street down, or maybe a neighborhood. In the same way falling trees do
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> One squirrel shouldn't be able to bring a whole grid down. Grids are supposed to be resilient and have a couple of safety features
A very big outage in North America occurred from the cascading effects of a single breaker working as intended. The grid is a very complex system because it is dynamic and subject to states of vulnerability that may not be well understood.
A very big outage in North America occurred from the cascading effects of a single breaker working as intended. The grid is a very complex system because it is dynamic and subject to states of vulnerability that may not be well understood.
Link for anyone who didn't know about it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_blackout_of_2003
Yes but it was not "just the squirrel" it is a combination of factors (usually faults or overloads upstream).
Exactly my point, the grid is a complex dynamic system.
Something being a complex dynamic system doesn’t make it vulnerable to squirrels. It may be vulnerable to squirrels, but it also may not be.
For sure but in the interest of national defense seems like we should work to amend that
> This tactic of elevating your pet issue by linking it to a hypothetical catastrophe seems a bit unserious.
I definitely have to agree. Seeing papers with such blatantly clickbaity sounding titles gain a lot of traction is pretty disheartening.
I definitely have to agree. Seeing papers with such blatantly clickbaity sounding titles gain a lot of traction is pretty disheartening.
> This tactic of elevating your pet issue by linking it to a hypothetical catastrophe seems a bit unserious.
I see it in the spirit of computer security research. "Here is a way evildoers could hack this system". Neither the form of attack nor the target need to be the most general to churn out such results.
I see it in the spirit of computer security research. "Here is a way evildoers could hack this system". Neither the form of attack nor the target need to be the most general to churn out such results.
The difference is that we actively take measures to defeat squirrels from impacting infrastructure.
Social media information warfare is happening and is novel. Institutions don’t have a good process do deal with it.
Social media information warfare is happening and is novel. Institutions don’t have a good process do deal with it.
This is already done by accident in the UK:
> TV pickup is a term used in the United Kingdom to refer to a phenomenon that affects electricity generation and transmission networks. It often occurs when a large number of people watch the same TV programmes while taking advantage of breaks in programming to use toilets and operate electrical appliances, thus causing large synchronised surges in national electricity consumption.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TV_pickup
> TV pickup is a term used in the United Kingdom to refer to a phenomenon that affects electricity generation and transmission networks. It often occurs when a large number of people watch the same TV programmes while taking advantage of breaks in programming to use toilets and operate electrical appliances, thus causing large synchronised surges in national electricity consumption.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TV_pickup
Yes, and Dinorwig is a special purpose 1.3GW pumped storage power station in North Wales that was built to help with the sudden demand from millions of kettles - it has the world's fastest response time! https://www.power-technology.com/features/featuredinorwig-a-...
The world cup half-time tea break spike. The load of millions of electric kettles boiling in unison.
All the nation's toilets also flush repeatedly at much the same time, which was a central plot point in the film "Flushed Away".
It's an interesting phenomenon, though I'd never considered that dealing with it could prepare us for a malicious attack some day.
All the nation's toilets also flush repeatedly at much the same time, which was a central plot point in the film "Flushed Away".
It's an interesting phenomenon, though I'd never considered that dealing with it could prepare us for a malicious attack some day.
The Intervision Song Contest (Интервидение), a second world alternative to Eurovision[1], ran the voting by telling people to turn off or on their lights, during specific time slots for each candidate. Supposedly they could tell by the electrical load on the grid who got the popular vote.
[1] for the yanks, this show gave us: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FsVeMz1F5c&t=60
[1] for the yanks, this show gave us: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FsVeMz1F5c&t=60
I thought that it was a joke that became urban legend. Do you have a source on it?
Good point. Nothing primary, and I only googled in english. Didn't try russian or yandex. It's plausible to me because Modi's Covid light stunt was distinctly visible on the indian grid, but it would be better if someone who actually watched Intervision (or at least knows how expensive long-distance calls were in the USSR?) could say something here.
(In a 1975 movie, Zhenya Lukashin offers to repay Nadya Shevelova for making a long distance call from her apartment, so I gather that, as in the west, non-local rates weren't trivial.)
Edit: https://rus.azattyq.org/a/intervidenie-konkurent-evrovidenia...
> "В социалистических странах, где установки телефона надо было ждать годами или давать для ускорения взятку, зрители прибегали к интересной сигнализации о своих предпочтениях. Они включали свет, если песня понравилась, и выключали его, если не нравилась. Итоги присуждения баллов участникам подводились на основании данных об изменении нагрузки в электрической сети."
But note that from the logo, this appears to be a "Radio Liberty", i.e. US propaganda, article.
Edit1,5: same story from RT.
https://russian.rt.com/inotv/2014-08-04/Na-Intervidenii-ne-b...
> "Из-за того, что телефонные сети не были достаточно развиты, чтобы обеспечить голосование, зрителей просили голосовать с помощью электричества. Включенный свет – за понравившиеся номера, выключенный – за непонравившиеся; затем отмечали показатели электрических сетей."
Still no primary source, but if russian and US state owned media agree, and absent any personal recollections, I'm inclined to accept the story. (Unless our alien lizard overlords are behind the whole thing?)
Edit2: interesting, according to a documentary referred to in the google cache of http://www.alla-superstar.ru/component/alla/songs/song/91.ht... it took RUB 25 and a bottle of vodka to get Все Могут Короли past the censors in the mid-70s. (roughly between 1 and 2 benjamins in 2020 USD? From this point of view BTC makes a poor substitute currency, as one can't toast with it...)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5nn7KxYUXs
(In a 1975 movie, Zhenya Lukashin offers to repay Nadya Shevelova for making a long distance call from her apartment, so I gather that, as in the west, non-local rates weren't trivial.)
Edit: https://rus.azattyq.org/a/intervidenie-konkurent-evrovidenia...
> "В социалистических странах, где установки телефона надо было ждать годами или давать для ускорения взятку, зрители прибегали к интересной сигнализации о своих предпочтениях. Они включали свет, если песня понравилась, и выключали его, если не нравилась. Итоги присуждения баллов участникам подводились на основании данных об изменении нагрузки в электрической сети."
But note that from the logo, this appears to be a "Radio Liberty", i.e. US propaganda, article.
Edit1,5: same story from RT.
https://russian.rt.com/inotv/2014-08-04/Na-Intervidenii-ne-b...
> "Из-за того, что телефонные сети не были достаточно развиты, чтобы обеспечить голосование, зрителей просили голосовать с помощью электричества. Включенный свет – за понравившиеся номера, выключенный – за непонравившиеся; затем отмечали показатели электрических сетей."
Still no primary source, but if russian and US state owned media agree, and absent any personal recollections, I'm inclined to accept the story. (Unless our alien lizard overlords are behind the whole thing?)
Edit2: interesting, according to a documentary referred to in the google cache of http://www.alla-superstar.ru/component/alla/songs/song/91.ht... it took RUB 25 and a bottle of vodka to get Все Могут Короли past the censors in the mid-70s. (roughly between 1 and 2 benjamins in 2020 USD? From this point of view BTC makes a poor substitute currency, as one can't toast with it...)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5nn7KxYUXs
Can anyone explain to this confused westerner why "Все Могут Короли" would even need to be snuck past the censors via a "mistaken" airing?
The theme doesn't seem to be very different from other pop music, such as https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pw-9qu4gcWI .
A mid-80's western report on the "vodka economy" suggests that in this case the bottle itself was meant more as a traditional component of a bribe/tip, and probably didn't contribute much to the pecuniary value. (Indeed, one suggestion in the paper is that, just as the dollar lost its gold standard, during the seventies the ruble also lost its vodka standard of 3 RUB = 1 L.)
https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/1985-Berk-Duke-Treml.pdf
> "30. Krokodil [No. 14, 1970, 5] carried a cartoon showing a living room where every inch of space -- floor, window sills, furniture -- was filled with vodka bottles . The woman pictured amid these hundreds of bottles explained her predicament : "My husband is an excellent plumber, but he does not drink ...."
> "38. Increases in vodka prices are important in yet another respect. Interest rates on savings accounts in the USSR are, on the average, about 2.5% per annum, and increases in vodka prices since the late 1950s have more than compensated the consumer who has kept his wealth in vodka rather than in savings accounts."
The theme doesn't seem to be very different from other pop music, such as https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pw-9qu4gcWI .
A mid-80's western report on the "vodka economy" suggests that in this case the bottle itself was meant more as a traditional component of a bribe/tip, and probably didn't contribute much to the pecuniary value. (Indeed, one suggestion in the paper is that, just as the dollar lost its gold standard, during the seventies the ruble also lost its vodka standard of 3 RUB = 1 L.)
https://www.ucis.pitt.edu/nceeer/1985-Berk-Duke-Treml.pdf
> "30. Krokodil [No. 14, 1970, 5] carried a cartoon showing a living room where every inch of space -- floor, window sills, furniture -- was filled with vodka bottles . The woman pictured amid these hundreds of bottles explained her predicament : "My husband is an excellent plumber, but he does not drink ...."
> "38. Increases in vodka prices are important in yet another respect. Interest rates on savings accounts in the USSR are, on the average, about 2.5% per annum, and increases in vodka prices since the late 1950s have more than compensated the consumer who has kept his wealth in vodka rather than in savings accounts."
Looks like the control room has a little TV in it, to help with the timing.
https://youtu.be/slDAvewWfrA
https://youtu.be/slDAvewWfrA
Is it still done like this? I feel like there's a lot riding on this one guy clicking his mouse. Surely there's a way to automate this?
How would you automate that better/more reliably than having a human interpret the programme?
That would require "AI".
E.g. in football/"soccer" the half time break isn't at a predetermined point in time, as the start of the game can be delayed and the referee can and usually does give some extra time to make up for unplanned breaks due to fouls etc. Same after regular time in the second half. And if it's a knockout game, then you may even have real overtime and even a penalty shootout to find a winner. Then you have unplanned/semi-planned breaks like players getting a break to drink when it's hot, or... heavy rain or... the ref getting hit in the head with a bottle. And people will use these breaks to do their "business" and make tea/coffee/use the microwave oven. And after the game, players may stay on the field to celebrate or cry about the loss, which I would guess a computervision "AI" would have trouble distinguishing from the actual game.
Just having some people watch the game in the control room (which they probably would do or at least want to do anyway) is still easier and more reliable than trying to train an AI to detect all that, in my humble opinion :D
Of course, automation like automatically detecting and scaling the grid by looking at the grid itself would and does help a lot; but that's different from automating watching the telly.
E.g. in football/"soccer" the half time break isn't at a predetermined point in time, as the start of the game can be delayed and the referee can and usually does give some extra time to make up for unplanned breaks due to fouls etc. Same after regular time in the second half. And if it's a knockout game, then you may even have real overtime and even a penalty shootout to find a winner. Then you have unplanned/semi-planned breaks like players getting a break to drink when it's hot, or... heavy rain or... the ref getting hit in the head with a bottle. And people will use these breaks to do their "business" and make tea/coffee/use the microwave oven. And after the game, players may stay on the field to celebrate or cry about the loss, which I would guess a computervision "AI" would have trouble distinguishing from the actual game.
Just having some people watch the game in the control room (which they probably would do or at least want to do anyway) is still easier and more reliable than trying to train an AI to detect all that, in my humble opinion :D
Of course, automation like automatically detecting and scaling the grid by looking at the grid itself would and does help a lot; but that's different from automating watching the telly.
I have to admit that I was asking that as a loaded question as my thinking was much like yours, but I didn't feel like typing it out. A human is probably the most reliable "AI" for the job :D.
How would you make them watch the correct channel?
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Do the security services count disinformation as a threat to nation state security? And if they do, how can they detect it, prove it and stop it without becoming an arbiter of truth in democracies, where successful parties can profit from foreign-agent supplied disinformation? The article talks about practical concerns but the threat to state sovereignty seems as dangerous.
> Do the security services count disinformation as a threat to nation state security?
They probably do because they need to justify the huge, ever-increasing and uncontrollable budgets they're receiving. It also seems like "disinformation" and "fake news" have taken the place of the "terrorists" from the 2000s and early 2010s, I'm 100% sure I've seen many articles with titles similar to "Terrorists can bring down city's/country's power grid" back during those days.
They probably do because they need to justify the huge, ever-increasing and uncontrollable budgets they're receiving. It also seems like "disinformation" and "fake news" have taken the place of the "terrorists" from the 2000s and early 2010s, I'm 100% sure I've seen many articles with titles similar to "Terrorists can bring down city's/country's power grid" back during those days.
Basically every large country is actively participating in it at this point against their rivals. (Yes that even includes you guys America - Operation Earnest Voice was just the beginning). You can't really call it out as bad when you are doing it yourself.
They realise it's a threat but also see it as an opportunity.
The US military were discussing meme warfare a decade ago. The Russian IRA basically pumps out this stuff wholesale.
It's incredibly hard to stop.
They realise it's a threat but also see it as an opportunity.
The US military were discussing meme warfare a decade ago. The Russian IRA basically pumps out this stuff wholesale.
It's incredibly hard to stop.
Why label it disinformation? Even real information, presented in a "weaponized" way, can bring down power grids or entire governments. Limiting the discussion to just a certain kind of information, that we then prefix "dis", covers up the real problem. The real problem being that, while we very much value the open and free flow of information (free speech), that same freely flowing information can be weaponized and destructive. And SM has made it so much easier to weaponize information, both real and "dis".
I think you're describing misinformation. Disinformation makes people mistrust their news sources, so that any source of information might be as trustworthy as any other. That's why they would be susceptible to fake discount notifications like the ones described in the paper.
> Disinformation makes people mistrust their news sources
I began distrusting the media in my country when the most reputable (publicly financed) news shows increasingly contradicted their own reporting. One day they reported "a", because they could spin it in favor of their SJW agenda, and the next day the reported the complete opposite about the same topic for the same reason. Sometimes it even happened within the same show.
So yes, you are correct, disinformation made me distrust my news sources. But it was the obvious disinformation spread by those very news sources.
I began distrusting the media in my country when the most reputable (publicly financed) news shows increasingly contradicted their own reporting. One day they reported "a", because they could spin it in favor of their SJW agenda, and the next day the reported the complete opposite about the same topic for the same reason. Sometimes it even happened within the same show.
So yes, you are correct, disinformation made me distrust my news sources. But it was the obvious disinformation spread by those very news sources.
>Disinformation makes people mistrust their news sources
But the news sources themselves make you distrust them. I doubt that they are actively trying to make their readers mistrust them, but they seem to get that end result by simply engaging in politics.
But the news sources themselves make you distrust them. I doubt that they are actively trying to make their readers mistrust them, but they seem to get that end result by simply engaging in politics.
Misinformation: falsehood
Disinformation: weaponized falsehood
Malinformation: weaponized truth
Disinformation: weaponized falsehood
Malinformation: weaponized truth
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Never heard of Malinformation before (even my spell check doesn't recognise it). Interesting concept. Kind of what Wikileaks is built on I guess.
Because “disinformation” is a trendy buzzword at the moment
That's why the UK has a number of pumped storage schemes such as Dinorwig and Loch Awe. Typically this sort of facility can put 500MW into the grid from cold at about 1 minute's notice. With warning (so the turbines can be spun up to speed) the ramp up time is about 10s.
On the opposite side, I'd wish to make some large scale positive blips. Like facebook street cleaning challenges, or bike delivery day, or 1min cold shower week.
It's much simpler to convince people to just burn down their infrastructure: https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/4/21207927/5g-towers-burning...
See also convincing people not to take simple public health measures, do unsafe things in defiance of nonexistant conspiracies, shoot up pizza parlours etc.
See also convincing people not to take simple public health measures, do unsafe things in defiance of nonexistant conspiracies, shoot up pizza parlours etc.
Funny things happen sometimes: french president Emmanuel Macron speech on TV on april 13th 2020 was followed by an estimated 36.7 millions people and led to 2.5 Gigawatt lower electricity consumption in France between 20:00 and 20:30 local time. Grid manager RTE lowered production by 1.9 GW for nuclear and 0.6 GW for hydro to match demand.
https://www.rte-france.com/actualites/allocution_president_c...
" L’allocution d’Emmanuel Macron, retransmise sur les principales chaînes d’information ce lundi 13 avril, a été suivie par 36,7 millions de téléspectateurs selon Médiamétrie.
Ce record d’audience se voit au travers de la consommation d’électricité des Français qui a chuté de 2 500 MW, entre 20h et 20h30, soit l’équivalence de la consommation d’électricité de Paris."
https://www.rte-france.com/actualites/allocution_president_c...
" L’allocution d’Emmanuel Macron, retransmise sur les principales chaînes d’information ce lundi 13 avril, a été suivie par 36,7 millions de téléspectateurs selon Médiamétrie.
Ce record d’audience se voit au travers de la consommation d’électricité des Français qui a chuté de 2 500 MW, entre 20h et 20h30, soit l’équivalence de la consommation d’électricité de Paris."
This is not a scientific paper, i.e. reproduceable result. It is a speculation. PLOS is becoming a junkmjournal.
I normally try to read the article behind the headline, but I honestly can't bother.
Weaponized disinformation? Is there any other type of disinformation? This feels very "newspeak".
Weaponized disinformation? Is there any other type of disinformation? This feels very "newspeak".
In certain places there are already systems that can handle when the system load is > available generation. When this occurs, the frequency of the grid drops and these automated systems begin dropping load. [0] has a report on such a system in New Zealand that triggered.
These systems need to drop load before the frequency gets so low that it causes damage to generating stations. In the 2003 blackout in the northeast US & Canada, load wasn't dropped fast enough and the protection equipment at generating plants tripped them off before damage could occur. For base generation like nuclear plants, you generally need to wait up to 72 hours to restart the plant [1]. One key reason for that long time period is the need to wait for Xenon 135 levels to stabilize. [2]
The paper actually considers these systems, but dismisses them because "Third, we disregard the possibility that power utilities react to the sudden increase in the demand either by increasing the available generation or through load shedding. As for the former reaction, it would be ineffective since the primary cause of the blackout in our simulation is the violation of the line capacity limits rather than a generation deficit. The latter reaction may also be ineffective in protecting the residential loads considered in our study since power utilities typically prioritize commercial, industrial and critical loads during such contingencies."
So in other words, end consumers would lose power, but the grid would continue to function as designed for critical loads. Hardly seems like the sky is falling.
0. https://www.transpower.co.nz/resources/report-2-march-2017-s...
1. https://engineering.stackexchange.com/questions/7394/why-doe...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iodine_pit#Iodine_pit_behavior
These systems need to drop load before the frequency gets so low that it causes damage to generating stations. In the 2003 blackout in the northeast US & Canada, load wasn't dropped fast enough and the protection equipment at generating plants tripped them off before damage could occur. For base generation like nuclear plants, you generally need to wait up to 72 hours to restart the plant [1]. One key reason for that long time period is the need to wait for Xenon 135 levels to stabilize. [2]
The paper actually considers these systems, but dismisses them because "Third, we disregard the possibility that power utilities react to the sudden increase in the demand either by increasing the available generation or through load shedding. As for the former reaction, it would be ineffective since the primary cause of the blackout in our simulation is the violation of the line capacity limits rather than a generation deficit. The latter reaction may also be ineffective in protecting the residential loads considered in our study since power utilities typically prioritize commercial, industrial and critical loads during such contingencies."
So in other words, end consumers would lose power, but the grid would continue to function as designed for critical loads. Hardly seems like the sky is falling.
0. https://www.transpower.co.nz/resources/report-2-march-2017-s...
1. https://engineering.stackexchange.com/questions/7394/why-doe...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iodine_pit#Iodine_pit_behavior
This tactic of elevating your pet issue by linking it to a hypothetical catastrophe seems a bit unserious. A network model of how memes and beliefs spread is interesting, but they seem to adopt someone elses model in support of their idea. It's useful to apply extra skepticism to papers that link ideas to catastrophe, since it's likely using it as a vehicle.
However, an alternative interpretation from this is they may show it's possible to ascertain someone's political beliefs or alignment and select them for further investigation using their electricity consumption patterns, which if true, would be right out of the anti-smart-meter infrastructure conspiracies we encountered during SMI rollouts.