German cars have the most to lose from a changing auto industry(economist.com)
economist.com
German cars have the most to lose from a changing auto industry
https://www.economist.com/news/business/21737534-coddled-successive-governments-industry-dogged-dieselgate-lagging-electric
106 comments
I too work in German automotive software and I do think their point that German industry may not cope with the coming challenges is valid.
From my point of view a big problem is that most decisions are still made by people with mechanical or electrical engineering backgrounds. The whole culture values the German engineer a lot, the computer scientist or programmer not so much. I deliberately wrote computer scientist and programmer, because these are not even considered proper engineers here, even if the term software engineer is gaining popularity.
I suspect the situation is different for the big suppliers like Bosch, Conti and ZF. I think almost all of the ECU know-how (hardware and software) is in these companies whereas the car companies tend their - soon to be mostly useless - ICE know-how like the holy grail. If the suppliers make the right decisions now, they could be the big war profiteers.
BTW: ICE stands for internal combustion engine, for those just skimming the comments.
From my point of view a big problem is that most decisions are still made by people with mechanical or electrical engineering backgrounds. The whole culture values the German engineer a lot, the computer scientist or programmer not so much. I deliberately wrote computer scientist and programmer, because these are not even considered proper engineers here, even if the term software engineer is gaining popularity.
I suspect the situation is different for the big suppliers like Bosch, Conti and ZF. I think almost all of the ECU know-how (hardware and software) is in these companies whereas the car companies tend their - soon to be mostly useless - ICE know-how like the holy grail. If the suppliers make the right decisions now, they could be the big war profiteers.
BTW: ICE stands for internal combustion engine, for those just skimming the comments.
I worked for one of the supplier you mentionned. The SW really has a huge place in the company and enjoy a good recognition. It has its own method of development and is SW focused.
The only drawback are the methodologies which are not agile and flexible, but on the other side this is due to recall costs being so prohibitively expensive if a million cars need to be reflashed due to a SW bug.
I can't speak for car software as our stuff is completely unrelated to cars, but I work at a company whose software BMW is a client of and we do a lot of customization for them. I can very confidently say that of our clients (most of which are banks and some of the largest pharmas in the world) BMW has the strictest software quality and testing requirements by a fairly wide margin.
No idea how that reflects on software they develop internally or for their cars but to me they care a lot about the software they have.
No idea how that reflects on software they develop internally or for their cars but to me they care a lot about the software they have.
> BMW has the strictest software quality and testing requirements by a fairly wide margin
I find this worrying.
Having worked on a variety of BMW projects over the years, I find their dedication to software quality... worthy of improvement.
I find this worrying.
Having worked on a variety of BMW projects over the years, I find their dedication to software quality... worthy of improvement.
I live in the opposite world. The importance of software isn't recognized enough but agile for almost everything is pressed very hard by upper management.
A very strange version of agile, that is. One where the very first section of the agile process description elaborates how important processes are and how important it is that everyone "lives" them. Reading this made me smile, because first sentence of the original Agile Manifesto literally is "Individuals and interactions over processes and tools".
A very strange version of agile, that is. One where the very first section of the agile process description elaborates how important processes are and how important it is that everyone "lives" them. Reading this made me smile, because first sentence of the original Agile Manifesto literally is "Individuals and interactions over processes and tools".
Some countries will mandate electrics, but ICE engines will be the mainstream globally for the next 20 years and still common for at least a couple decades after that.
> computer scientist and programmer [...] are not even considered proper engineers here
That is plain incorrect. Even though the exact details vary by state, pretty much anyone with a Bachelor's in Computer Science is an allowed to call themselves a proper "Ingenieur".
See for example Ingenieurgesetz (IngG) of the Baden-Württemberg state: http://www.landesrecht-bw.de/jportal/portal/t/ox2/page/bsbaw...
That is plain incorrect. Even though the exact details vary by state, pretty much anyone with a Bachelor's in Computer Science is an allowed to call themselves a proper "Ingenieur".
See for example Ingenieurgesetz (IngG) of the Baden-Württemberg state: http://www.landesrecht-bw.de/jportal/portal/t/ox2/page/bsbaw...
I didn't claim that computer scientists are not allowed to call themselves engineers. I even said that the title software engineer is on the rise.
What I said and what I stand by is that in my experience the typical German automotive middle manager still has the words Dipl.-Ing. on his degree certificate and looks down on anyone who hasn't, including computer scientists.
And just to make clear where I am coming from, making all this claims: I do have a degree certificate with words Dipl.-Ing. on it and another one with the words Master and Informatics on it, so I know a bit of both worlds.
When it comes to the IngG, even there it is not as clearly cut as it seems. The whole history of it is interesting but too involved for a short comment, so I will focus on the wording of the law:
The law is very specific about the fact that it permits the title "Ingenieur" only to graduates of technical or natural scientific fields. Computer science, like mathematics, is considered a formal science which is neither technical nor a natural science.
What I said and what I stand by is that in my experience the typical German automotive middle manager still has the words Dipl.-Ing. on his degree certificate and looks down on anyone who hasn't, including computer scientists.
And just to make clear where I am coming from, making all this claims: I do have a degree certificate with words Dipl.-Ing. on it and another one with the words Master and Informatics on it, so I know a bit of both worlds.
When it comes to the IngG, even there it is not as clearly cut as it seems. The whole history of it is interesting but too involved for a short comment, so I will focus on the wording of the law:
The law is very specific about the fact that it permits the title "Ingenieur" only to graduates of technical or natural scientific fields. Computer science, like mathematics, is considered a formal science which is neither technical nor a natural science.
> The law is very specific about the fact that it permits the title "Ingenieur" only to graduates of technical or natural scientific fields
At least in the case of BW, Computer Science is clearly listed as one of the possible fields: "[...] wobei dieses Studium überwiegend von den Bereichen Mathematik, Informatik, Naturwissenschaften und Technik geprägt sein muss [...]"
At least in the case of BW, Computer Science is clearly listed as one of the possible fields: "[...] wobei dieses Studium überwiegend von den Bereichen Mathematik, Informatik, Naturwissenschaften und Technik geprägt sein muss [...]"
> "[...] wobei dieses Studium überwiegend von den Bereichen Mathematik, Informatik, Naturwissenschaften und Technik geprägt sein muss [...]"
"dieses" refers to "Studium in einer technischen oder naturwissenschaftlichen Fachrichtung" which means only technical or natural scientific fields qualify.
From my understanding Bioinformatics would qualify, because it could be considered a natural science and the learning content is dominated by topics from the natural sciences, computer science and technology.
Pure computer science would not qualify because it is neither a natural science nor technical. It does not qualify because it doesn't satisfy the precondition to the sentence you quoted.
I'm not a lawyer and this is just my reading of the law and I didn't find any court decisions or anything regarding this topic.
"dieses" refers to "Studium in einer technischen oder naturwissenschaftlichen Fachrichtung" which means only technical or natural scientific fields qualify.
From my understanding Bioinformatics would qualify, because it could be considered a natural science and the learning content is dominated by topics from the natural sciences, computer science and technology.
Pure computer science would not qualify because it is neither a natural science nor technical. It does not qualify because it doesn't satisfy the precondition to the sentence you quoted.
I'm not a lawyer and this is just my reading of the law and I didn't find any court decisions or anything regarding this topic.
> Master of Informatics
Let me guess, your degree was actually in Computer Science and is "mistranslated" as Informatics by your University?
Informatics degrees[1] actually exist in the US and are different from Computer Science degrees[2].
[1] https://ischool.uw.edu/programs/informatics
[2] https://www.cs.washington.edu/academics/ugrad/courses/requir...
Let me guess, your degree was actually in Computer Science and is "mistranslated" as Informatics by your University?
Informatics degrees[1] actually exist in the US and are different from Computer Science degrees[2].
[1] https://ischool.uw.edu/programs/informatics
[2] https://www.cs.washington.edu/academics/ugrad/courses/requir...
Nah, it's probably just a "false friend" mistranslation (1): "Computer Science" translates as "Informatik" in German. So if you've got a German degree in "Informatik", it's what would be called "Computer Science" in anglophone countries.
Ed. (1) by the poster
Ed. (1) by the poster
My Informatik degree piece of paper has both German and English text, but the English says "Informatics" rather than "Computer Science".
That’s not exactly how it works. You can call yoursef an engineer if you can prove that your past experience is matching the one of a studied engineer. I knwo, I’m going theough that with Finanzamt atm.
I can completely believe that the automotive industry in Germany cannot cope with more software and more computer centric vehicles. And it has nothing to do with Python either and more to do with the fact that they cannot seem to architect software at all.
Perhaps they hire too many mechanical engineering graduates who simply do not know how to program. I find the main culprit being AUTOSAR, the flaming pile of shite should have never existed and should be taken out and shot.
I need to compose my thoughts more, as it is making me mad and is the main reason I am leaving the automotive industry - shockingly bad software, practices and utter incompetence when it comes to anything residing on the microcontroller. The electrical and mechanical designs are great, the software will eventually cause someone to die.
Perhaps they hire too many mechanical engineering graduates who simply do not know how to program. I find the main culprit being AUTOSAR, the flaming pile of shite should have never existed and should be taken out and shot.
I need to compose my thoughts more, as it is making me mad and is the main reason I am leaving the automotive industry - shockingly bad software, practices and utter incompetence when it comes to anything residing on the microcontroller. The electrical and mechanical designs are great, the software will eventually cause someone to die.
As far as real world autonomous vehicles go Germany is in the front of the pack.
For industrial uses (e.g. mining) the likes of Bosch Automation are world leaders.
Audi has just release the worlds first L4 consumer car.
DHL/Deutsche Post are piloting their fleet of autonomous delivery vehicles and there are many more examples.
If anything who is currently falling behind in the autonomous vehicle industry is the likes of Tesla that promised the world on hardware that could never achieve that and still thinks it can achieve L4/5 all conditions driver with a single sensor on hardware that is designed to for limited L3 functionality.
For industrial uses (e.g. mining) the likes of Bosch Automation are world leaders.
Audi has just release the worlds first L4 consumer car.
DHL/Deutsche Post are piloting their fleet of autonomous delivery vehicles and there are many more examples.
If anything who is currently falling behind in the autonomous vehicle industry is the likes of Tesla that promised the world on hardware that could never achieve that and still thinks it can achieve L4/5 all conditions driver with a single sensor on hardware that is designed to for limited L3 functionality.
> The article suggest that the german industry may not cope with more computer centric vehicles. I think thats just laughable,
In my opinion, this is precisely their problem though: they are increasingly becoming software companies with sort of a mechanical engineering appendage, but they haven't realised yet.
> it is them who introduced computer controlled engine (motronic) or invented ABS and ESP which are computer controlled brakes.
Yes, but those are relatively "classic" devices: straight-forward control of narrowly-defined and well-defined physical systems. Essentially an iteration on analog control systems.
In fact your argument strengthens mine, IMO: you seem not to have realised either how tremendous the difference is between good old ABS and a modern vehicle (and inter-vehicle, etc) network.
No doubt German manufacturers can catch up quickly: but only if they realise this paradigm shift, and react to it. So far, I see no signs of that.
Fellow German automotive embedded engineer here, BTW. I've seen how the sausage gets made.
Anectdata:
* the last BMW project I worked on, they had very tenuous control of their in-car network, with lots of race conditions, gaps, etc. And couldn't seem to get it under control
* speaking of race conditions: there is one in my BMW. In the gear selector! (yes, you read right -- a race condition in the gear selector)
* the BMW Android app (which cost €300, including the preparations within the car) is laughably unreliable; it's frequently unavailable, likes to present incorrect data, and the UX is designed by clueless people. Most free apps are better. At least they are consistent: despite frequent updates, it remains shit
In my opinion, this is precisely their problem though: they are increasingly becoming software companies with sort of a mechanical engineering appendage, but they haven't realised yet.
> it is them who introduced computer controlled engine (motronic) or invented ABS and ESP which are computer controlled brakes.
Yes, but those are relatively "classic" devices: straight-forward control of narrowly-defined and well-defined physical systems. Essentially an iteration on analog control systems.
In fact your argument strengthens mine, IMO: you seem not to have realised either how tremendous the difference is between good old ABS and a modern vehicle (and inter-vehicle, etc) network.
No doubt German manufacturers can catch up quickly: but only if they realise this paradigm shift, and react to it. So far, I see no signs of that.
Fellow German automotive embedded engineer here, BTW. I've seen how the sausage gets made.
Anectdata:
* the last BMW project I worked on, they had very tenuous control of their in-car network, with lots of race conditions, gaps, etc. And couldn't seem to get it under control
* speaking of race conditions: there is one in my BMW. In the gear selector! (yes, you read right -- a race condition in the gear selector)
* the BMW Android app (which cost €300, including the preparations within the car) is laughably unreliable; it's frequently unavailable, likes to present incorrect data, and the UX is designed by clueless people. Most free apps are better. At least they are consistent: despite frequent updates, it remains shit
> In my opinion the only field where they will not be able to catch up are autonomous vehicle, it is too abstract and revolutionary for them. It does not fit the german way of innovation based on small incremental innovative steps.
Remember that VW and Sony had a working prototype of an autonomous Passat around 2008, back then the computers required to make the calculations filled half the car.
I’m sure going from that step – having a prototype that works on highways and in simple situations – to the goal is just an iterative process, something they are good at.
And we’ve seen with other carmakers, which started by adding lane assistants, parking assistants, crash prevention systems that automatically brake, later ones that automatically drive around obstacles that you can gain autonomous capability by taking each part of driving, solving it seperately, and iterating on the combination.
Remember that VW and Sony had a working prototype of an autonomous Passat around 2008, back then the computers required to make the calculations filled half the car.
I’m sure going from that step – having a prototype that works on highways and in simple situations – to the goal is just an iterative process, something they are good at.
And we’ve seen with other carmakers, which started by adding lane assistants, parking assistants, crash prevention systems that automatically brake, later ones that automatically drive around obstacles that you can gain autonomous capability by taking each part of driving, solving it seperately, and iterating on the combination.
Highway driving is the easiest thing to do.
Making a SW which reliably drive in cities is a huge leap forwaed. Then comes the SW safety side: how do you prove to the authorities that the SW is fail safe ? It is a huge challenge.
Of course, but it’s not like the Germans are behind the others – highway driving was something these companies did a decade ago, Tesla is only doing it now, and only Waymo is further than that (and Waymo still only does cities without weather, or pedestrians)
But doesn't Germany have a rather weak software industry?
If it comes to competing on software, I am not sure if they will be able to attract top talent.
If it comes to competing on software, I am not sure if they will be able to attract top talent.
Depends what you compare it to. Everywhere is relatively weak against the West Coast scene.
That said there is still a lot of talent in the EU and it's only going to get better since the Brexit negotiations is going off the rails and companies are starting to relocate.
That said there is still a lot of talent in the EU and it's only going to get better since the Brexit negotiations is going off the rails and companies are starting to relocate.
I don't get why people still think this. Look at the other comments in this thread.
Germany isn't the best place to bootstrap a startup, but it has amazing universities and very established - and sophisticated - multinationals that train end employ a large number of incredibly talented people.
Germany isn't the best place to bootstrap a startup, but it has amazing universities and very established - and sophisticated - multinationals that train end employ a large number of incredibly talented people.
Many people want to live in Germany, there's nothing wrong with Germany itself. If German companies were competitive in pay and culture, they could easily attract the best from around the world. It's my observation that many German companies are not interested in top talent, and see software developers as a cost center for which they need to get "value for money".
Right, the latter part of your comment describes exactly why Germany has been exporting its skilled Software Engineers for the past few decades.
The question is, when will the circumstances change and how long will it take to reverse the damage that has been done?
The question is, when will the circumstances change and how long will it take to reverse the damage that has been done?
Germany has a comparatively weak consumer software industry.
They are kind of weak for computer SW compared to USA, but are quite strong in Europe.
Their pay packages for SW engineer in the automotive industry is however exremly competitive for Europe. For me it is only nearly on par with switzerland, taking into account the cost of living.
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Agreed, but let's also be honest, the industry is weak when it comes to quality control, which isn't helped by the general attitude of replacing cars once they go over 100-150k km (~93k miles).
This definitely isn't my field, but I'm at a loss to see where BMW, VW, &c. plan to purchase inputs once they start to scale ev manufacturing. The closest thing to a EU gigafactory isn't set to come online until 2023 (the Nortvolt in Sweden), and Europe isn't known (as far as I'm aware) for rare earth mining.
This definitely isn't my field, but I'm at a loss to see where BMW, VW, &c. plan to purchase inputs once they start to scale ev manufacturing. The closest thing to a EU gigafactory isn't set to come online until 2023 (the Nortvolt in Sweden), and Europe isn't known (as far as I'm aware) for rare earth mining.
> which isn't helped by the general attitude of replacing cars once they go over 100-150k km
This is something that only rich (compared to the rest) people do in Europe. Most people never owned a brand new car and drive their cars up to 500k km and more (if the car allows it, nowadays it's not possible).
This is something that only rich (compared to the rest) people do in Europe. Most people never owned a brand new car and drive their cars up to 500k km and more (if the car allows it, nowadays it's not possible).
I get a feeling that this is influenced by which part of the country you live in.
The average age of a passenger car in Germany is ~6.7 years. I wasn't able to find a recent reliable figure for the average number of KMs driven per car per year, but the EU has is listed at ~14,000 for Germany in 2012, and I don't really see why the number would have increased dramatically over the last five or so years.
Anyway, it looks like the average passenger car in Germany has been driven for ~87,000km. Germany is also on the lower side for average car age (France, and Italy are a little higher).
This is a back of the hand estimate, but it matches up with my perception that people look to replace their cars once they go above 100-150k km. Again, if you're younger, take longer commutes, or live outside of a large city (or are just frugal), I'm willing to bet that this number goes up dramatically (Eastern Europeans, for instance, hold onto their cars for a much longer period of time, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is also true for many portions of East Germany).
The average age of a passenger car in Germany is ~6.7 years. I wasn't able to find a recent reliable figure for the average number of KMs driven per car per year, but the EU has is listed at ~14,000 for Germany in 2012, and I don't really see why the number would have increased dramatically over the last five or so years.
Anyway, it looks like the average passenger car in Germany has been driven for ~87,000km. Germany is also on the lower side for average car age (France, and Italy are a little higher).
This is a back of the hand estimate, but it matches up with my perception that people look to replace their cars once they go above 100-150k km. Again, if you're younger, take longer commutes, or live outside of a large city (or are just frugal), I'm willing to bet that this number goes up dramatically (Eastern Europeans, for instance, hold onto their cars for a much longer period of time, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is also true for many portions of East Germany).
> The average age of a passenger car in Germany is ~6.7 years.
From a US perspective that number is insanely low! The average age of a car in the US was 11.6 years in 2016.[1] The average US driver drives 13.5k miles (21.7 km) per year[2] so that means the average car in the US would have around 156k miles (251k km) on its clock.
I wonder if the German number is skewed lower because it's only measuring a relatively wealthy part of the EU. Do most used German cars simply get exported to less wealthy parts of the EU instead of being re-sold within Germany?
[1]http://www.autonews.com/article/20161122/RETAIL05/161129973/...
[2]https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm
From a US perspective that number is insanely low! The average age of a car in the US was 11.6 years in 2016.[1] The average US driver drives 13.5k miles (21.7 km) per year[2] so that means the average car in the US would have around 156k miles (251k km) on its clock.
I wonder if the German number is skewed lower because it's only measuring a relatively wealthy part of the EU. Do most used German cars simply get exported to less wealthy parts of the EU instead of being re-sold within Germany?
[1]http://www.autonews.com/article/20161122/RETAIL05/161129973/...
[2]https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm
Used German cars are resold mainly in Eastern Europe.
The 6.7 is average age for a car on a road today, not average lifetime of a car. You've as many brand-new and 13 years old cars on the road to have that average.
Keep in mind that scrap age is lowered by company cars and taxies which could easily clock 200'000km in few years.
Keep in mind that scrap age is lowered by company cars and taxies which could easily clock 200'000km in few years.
Why wouldn't it be possible? The car couldn't pass the TUV inspection at that mileage, simply because of the high km on the odometer? Or do the inspectors demand that things like airbags get replaced, where the parts are no longer available?
Rust is a big reason for why cars fail.
Mileage itself is not an issue, but the requirements are increasing (especially for emissions) and new cars are nowhere as durable as old cars used to be.
So your car gets tested against current emissions standards, and not the ones that were in place back when it was manufactured? That sounds harsh. But certainly a boon for the auto makers, anyway.
They get tested against the standards that were in place, that's alright. They tax and/or disallow the whole standard. There are several different measures for different things, e.g. a green/yellow/red plaquette with a number that straight up disallows old cars from accessing some central areas of cities. Then there's the Euro1-whatever rating on which the calculation of ecological tax is based.
Leasing?
> But that is the same for every country having a lot of carmakers.
Or for any country. Repair / maintenance jobs are a lot more than manufacturing
Or for any country. Repair / maintenance jobs are a lot more than manufacturing
Here is a little feature on the way Bosch are fully prepared for the EV future:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHXi7Bvi_gE
The components are good to go, it is up to the car manufacturers to start using this kit in their vehicles.
So where are these car manufacturers?
You can buy the whole drivetrain and electronics from Bosch, put it in a box with some seats in it and the job is done. Despite this relative ease it seems that we are not getting that out of the German auto manufacturers. It is lip service, a promise to have EV everything by year 202x as another 6.3 litre AMG G-Wagen with upgraded fluffy heated seats is launched.
I think a lot will have to wait for the baby boomer generation to die off or get too old to be safe on the autobahns any more. I don't believe that future generations will be pleasuring themselves at the sound of V-whatever engines with noisy exhaust notes in the way that mid-life crisis types do today (as they 'sit in traffic' in their 'ultimate driving machines'). These things will go the way of steam engines on railways. We were once romantically attached to steam trains in much the same way that today's frustrated old people are attached to the fake exhaust notes on their Porsche/AMG/BMW/Audi cars.
One good thing is that today's high end cars are not built to last. Sure all the corrosion proofing is better than it was in 1963 but the financing of cars and the fact that you can't fix them yourself means that they get scrapped soon after they make it onto the second hand market. Why pay $$$$ to get that gearbox replaced when you can just lease-hire a brand new car for $$$ a month?
Bosch and others are doing great things in the pedal powered electric bicycle market. If you are a bicycle manufacturer then you just need to bolt the Bosch bits to a slightly modified bike and the job is a good one. The barrier to entry is really quite low, hence the profusion of electric bicycle models. It will be funny if the same happens with EV cars, with new market players from China coming along to make easy what VW et al. struggle to do.
I do feel that the German auto industry is in better shape for the EV challenge than what is happening in Italy and France. For instance, the PSA group - Peugeot/Citroen - recently brought out some monster SUV under a new deluxe brand - 'DS' - and that has a big clunky diesel in it, not some hybrid or EV. They are playing catch up with the German brands, trying to go high end, but you know that these stillborn dinosaurs are never going to be seen on the roads. PSA also got burdened with the GM Opel/Vauxhall relics. Meanwhile in Italy the Fiat group burdened themselves with all of that Chrysler legacy cruft. So at least the German auto industry is going forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHXi7Bvi_gE
The components are good to go, it is up to the car manufacturers to start using this kit in their vehicles.
So where are these car manufacturers?
You can buy the whole drivetrain and electronics from Bosch, put it in a box with some seats in it and the job is done. Despite this relative ease it seems that we are not getting that out of the German auto manufacturers. It is lip service, a promise to have EV everything by year 202x as another 6.3 litre AMG G-Wagen with upgraded fluffy heated seats is launched.
I think a lot will have to wait for the baby boomer generation to die off or get too old to be safe on the autobahns any more. I don't believe that future generations will be pleasuring themselves at the sound of V-whatever engines with noisy exhaust notes in the way that mid-life crisis types do today (as they 'sit in traffic' in their 'ultimate driving machines'). These things will go the way of steam engines on railways. We were once romantically attached to steam trains in much the same way that today's frustrated old people are attached to the fake exhaust notes on their Porsche/AMG/BMW/Audi cars.
One good thing is that today's high end cars are not built to last. Sure all the corrosion proofing is better than it was in 1963 but the financing of cars and the fact that you can't fix them yourself means that they get scrapped soon after they make it onto the second hand market. Why pay $$$$ to get that gearbox replaced when you can just lease-hire a brand new car for $$$ a month?
Bosch and others are doing great things in the pedal powered electric bicycle market. If you are a bicycle manufacturer then you just need to bolt the Bosch bits to a slightly modified bike and the job is a good one. The barrier to entry is really quite low, hence the profusion of electric bicycle models. It will be funny if the same happens with EV cars, with new market players from China coming along to make easy what VW et al. struggle to do.
I do feel that the German auto industry is in better shape for the EV challenge than what is happening in Italy and France. For instance, the PSA group - Peugeot/Citroen - recently brought out some monster SUV under a new deluxe brand - 'DS' - and that has a big clunky diesel in it, not some hybrid or EV. They are playing catch up with the German brands, trying to go high end, but you know that these stillborn dinosaurs are never going to be seen on the roads. PSA also got burdened with the GM Opel/Vauxhall relics. Meanwhile in Italy the Fiat group burdened themselves with all of that Chrysler legacy cruft. So at least the German auto industry is going forward.
I do feel that the German auto industry is in better shape for the EV challenge than what is happening in Italy and France.
In both 2015 and 2016, the Renault Zoe was the second best-selling European plug-in car, and quite close to the BMW i3.
In both 2015 and 2016, the Renault Zoe was the second best-selling European plug-in car, and quite close to the BMW i3.
Thanks mainly to Nissan knowhow, which PSA and Fiat lack.
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European software people get paid about 1/3rd of their US counterparts’ compensation. I will let you fill in the blanks on how likely a European company is to attract top software talent, and how likely their success is without such talent.
I hate to mention this because I’m afraid to get downvoted to pieces, but there are a lot of European citizens who would not work in the U.S given the current political situation. Of course this can (and I hope will) change at the next election, but that’s a long time when it comes to fast moving research like AI.
I doubt there’s “a lot” of European software people who would turn down life changing compensation, tbh. There are some, but probably not a lot. As you mentioned yourself, political situations in western democracies tend to change over time.
You’re right, I don’t have a big sample size, but most of the Brits and Europeans I speak to in our office and at meet ups are not at all comfortable with the situation in the U.S and want to wait and see what happens. Heck, even the Americans in our office (who moved here long before the election) are like “we’re gonna keep put in London for the time being and go back after the next election”. Some of that also has to do with timeline for Brexit, whatever it turns out to be.
Curious: what are some of the things they see as negatives? Growing stock market? Repatriation of hundreds of billions in corporate profits, so they can be invested here or distributed to shareholders? Lower corporate tax and more favorable business climate that comes with that? I mean, really. My stock portfolio doubled last year. I can retire if I want to, at the ripe old age of 40. I looked into some gigs in London, and at the upper end of things, I’d be paid 1/4th of what I make now, in spite of massively higher cost of living.
Have you looked at any quality of life surveys recently? There's a reason why no US American city appears in the top 20; ever!
I can't speak for others, but here are a few reasons I would never move to the US for work. Note that I visited the US multiple times (alas in the 90s) so I'm aware that it's a very diverse country with very diverse (and usually incredibly nice) people and it's not the usual anti-US reflexes that would keep me from working there, ever.
Let's begin with the fact that you don't get any vacation by law. Some companies will not even provide you with sick days, which is a completely absurd from a European perspective
Let's continue with the fact that employment laws in most states are extremely pro-business and very much anti employee. Agreements like mandatory arbitration and no right to an impartial judge in case of disputes would be laughed out of any European court. At least it would be laughed out of any court in Switzerland, which has one of the most liberal and lenient employment laws in Europe.
Let's continue with things that would be simply extremely uncomfortable for me. While I'm aware that not every American is armed to the teeth there are enough people packing heat, especially in southern states. With measures on the way to allow a carrier of a concealed gun to carry it throughout any state makes me extremely uncomfortable and I really don't want to live in such a society.
We could continue with cities which are basically designed for cars, not walkable, not pedestrian and bike friendly and with horrendous public transport options. Sure, there are an excpetions (actually I can only think of New York from the cities I know). I don't want to live in a city where I'm either dependent on a car or on the likes of Uber.
You imply that money is the main motivator. It's not to me. As long as I have a satisfying job and make enough money to cover my daily needs (and maybe allows me to order a craft beer instead of the general swill without having to think about it) I'm more than happy. I make enough money to have no debts, being able to afford my travels (to Japan in April for a month) and if I can afford those things that make life a pleasure to live I'm happy enough.
Too each his own, I guess. But I vehemently disagree with your premise that money is the main motivator for going to work.
I can't speak for others, but here are a few reasons I would never move to the US for work. Note that I visited the US multiple times (alas in the 90s) so I'm aware that it's a very diverse country with very diverse (and usually incredibly nice) people and it's not the usual anti-US reflexes that would keep me from working there, ever.
Let's begin with the fact that you don't get any vacation by law. Some companies will not even provide you with sick days, which is a completely absurd from a European perspective
Let's continue with the fact that employment laws in most states are extremely pro-business and very much anti employee. Agreements like mandatory arbitration and no right to an impartial judge in case of disputes would be laughed out of any European court. At least it would be laughed out of any court in Switzerland, which has one of the most liberal and lenient employment laws in Europe.
Let's continue with things that would be simply extremely uncomfortable for me. While I'm aware that not every American is armed to the teeth there are enough people packing heat, especially in southern states. With measures on the way to allow a carrier of a concealed gun to carry it throughout any state makes me extremely uncomfortable and I really don't want to live in such a society.
We could continue with cities which are basically designed for cars, not walkable, not pedestrian and bike friendly and with horrendous public transport options. Sure, there are an excpetions (actually I can only think of New York from the cities I know). I don't want to live in a city where I'm either dependent on a car or on the likes of Uber.
You imply that money is the main motivator. It's not to me. As long as I have a satisfying job and make enough money to cover my daily needs (and maybe allows me to order a craft beer instead of the general swill without having to think about it) I'm more than happy. I make enough money to have no debts, being able to afford my travels (to Japan in April for a month) and if I can afford those things that make life a pleasure to live I'm happy enough.
Too each his own, I guess. But I vehemently disagree with your premise that money is the main motivator for going to work.
The real issue with US politics at the moment is the divisive, uber-partisan, and all encompassing nature of how we see each other. We don't look at someone with a different political viewpoint as a fellow American that we disagree with, we see that person as an enemy who poses an existential threat to our way of life. To a hardcore left wing progressive - Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have got nothing on the alt-right in our own country (and vice versa).
A lot of us would love to work in the U.S - but just not until the current political climate changes. There is no doubt that U.S workers are paid much more than those in London or other European cities.
To answer the question, see cageface’s comment.
To answer the question, see cageface’s comment.
Best coder I know is fluent, as in he can code the solution as fast as most people can accurately describe the problem. He pretends to be a lot slower than he is however by very carefully managing the client milestones and coasts on 70 thousand UKP, doing roughly half an hour a day of actual work.
The article assumes the following as "truths":
* There is a real anti-diesel sentiment, and diesel phasing out will happen
* Electric vehicles are an upcoming reality
* Driverless vehicles are desirable and will dominate the market
And finally,
* The German auto industry is unprepared to deal with these facts
Honestly I completely disagree on all 4 points. Electric vehicles are and will remain very expensive and inconvenient for a while. Their post-subsidy prices make clear that they constitute tax-funded toys for the rich. Autonomous/Driverless vehicles are also a novelty that we'll pay with a lot of blood. It's clear that we'll need at least 1-2 decades to reach a point where you can place reasonable trust to such a system for your daily commute. As for the diesel problem, there is a chance that some environmentalist lobby will eventually cause diesel cars for personal use to be phased out, but right now it's more of a social media meme than anything. And just because German automakers cheat on their tests, it doesn't mean that everyone else does too.
And finally, be certain that those massive corporate giants take consumer trends very seriously, and they're already trailing just behind the bleeding edge on all those technologies. They just don't spend that much on PR because they don't need more capital.
* There is a real anti-diesel sentiment, and diesel phasing out will happen
* Electric vehicles are an upcoming reality
* Driverless vehicles are desirable and will dominate the market
And finally,
* The German auto industry is unprepared to deal with these facts
Honestly I completely disagree on all 4 points. Electric vehicles are and will remain very expensive and inconvenient for a while. Their post-subsidy prices make clear that they constitute tax-funded toys for the rich. Autonomous/Driverless vehicles are also a novelty that we'll pay with a lot of blood. It's clear that we'll need at least 1-2 decades to reach a point where you can place reasonable trust to such a system for your daily commute. As for the diesel problem, there is a chance that some environmentalist lobby will eventually cause diesel cars for personal use to be phased out, but right now it's more of a social media meme than anything. And just because German automakers cheat on their tests, it doesn't mean that everyone else does too.
And finally, be certain that those massive corporate giants take consumer trends very seriously, and they're already trailing just behind the bleeding edge on all those technologies. They just don't spend that much on PR because they don't need more capital.
The article leads with "GERMAN carmakers have much in common with the self-confident roadhogs who favour their vehicles". That makes it hard to take seriously or treat as good journalism.
I was impressed by the user interface of the Audi Q5, while at the same time horrified of the the attack surface that goes far beyond the Jeep hack.
Germans, especially Audi, need to hardware condom media system writes to the CAN bus and cordon off sides of the driver dash into separate screens the media system can't spoof writes onto.
Germans, especially Audi, need to hardware condom media system writes to the CAN bus and cordon off sides of the driver dash into separate screens the media system can't spoof writes onto.
The German public and car industry is fighting tooth and nail against any change in drivetrain technology. The push to outlaw old diesel engines in city centers is met with cries about "deindustrialization".
We also mostly drive stick here.
I think the jury is still out if cleaner car technology will actually win or if we will keep living in poisoned cities.
Maybe German car makers will come out ahead by focusing on strong, loud and polluting cars.
I sure hope they won't.
We also mostly drive stick here.
I think the jury is still out if cleaner car technology will actually win or if we will keep living in poisoned cities.
Maybe German car makers will come out ahead by focusing on strong, loud and polluting cars.
I sure hope they won't.
None of this is at all true to me.
BMW was one of the first to come out with electric cars with the "i series". Audi is releasing 3 new electric drivetrains under the e-tron branding. Mercedes had a massive news release last month where they are building a global battery news to go with an upcoming global rollout of new electric cars:
https://electrek.co/2018/01/29/mercedes-benz-electric-vehicl...
This idea that the top auto manufacturers are just sitting around waiting for their industry to be taken over by electric startups is just laughable.
BMW was one of the first to come out with electric cars with the "i series". Audi is releasing 3 new electric drivetrains under the e-tron branding. Mercedes had a massive news release last month where they are building a global battery news to go with an upcoming global rollout of new electric cars:
https://electrek.co/2018/01/29/mercedes-benz-electric-vehicl...
This idea that the top auto manufacturers are just sitting around waiting for their industry to be taken over by electric startups is just laughable.
"BMW was one of the first to come out with electric cars with the "i series"."
That was one car. A single model - the i3. The i8 does not count since it's a hybrid with a little lawnmower engine hidden inside.
I am hopeful that things can change but what I see from BMW and (especially) Volvo is the same old press releases about a concept car that will be available three years from now.
They just keep writing the same press releases but shifting the dates forward.
That was one car. A single model - the i3. The i8 does not count since it's a hybrid with a little lawnmower engine hidden inside.
I am hopeful that things can change but what I see from BMW and (especially) Volvo is the same old press releases about a concept car that will be available three years from now.
They just keep writing the same press releases but shifting the dates forward.
> The German public and car industry is fighting tooth and nail against any change in drivetrain technology.
This is not true. The German car industry is heavily investing in electric cars.
Source: friend is engineering manager for a major supplier
This is not true. The German car industry is heavily investing in electric cars.
Source: friend is engineering manager for a major supplier
That's good to hear! I'm glad to be proven wrong.
It will become uneconomical to stick to IC cars as the entire world shifts to electric over the next ~30 years. Germany's auto makers will disappear in that scenario, because they'll lose all the global markets. Just losing part of those markets will destroy their margins due to the change in economies of scale. Their only good bet is to aggressively adapt. I'm sure they will, even if they drag their feet initially.
Toyota has put themselves in a similar running from behind scenario, because their leadership chose to put a lot of effort and money into hydrogen instead of the lithium-ion approach. I'd bet on them similarly eventually throwing immense resources into catching up.
Toyota has put themselves in a similar running from behind scenario, because their leadership chose to put a lot of effort and money into hydrogen instead of the lithium-ion approach. I'd bet on them similarly eventually throwing immense resources into catching up.
> We also mostly drive stick here.
During last years, there was a huge push to change that and sell as much as possible new cars with automatic transmission. For example, nowadays it is almost impossible to get a car with manual transmission, 4x4, and not an anaemic, preferably petrol engine (forget about atmospheric one). If you accept automatic, you can choose from almost all brands.
During last years, there was a huge push to change that and sell as much as possible new cars with automatic transmission. For example, nowadays it is almost impossible to get a car with manual transmission, 4x4, and not an anaemic, preferably petrol engine (forget about atmospheric one). If you accept automatic, you can choose from almost all brands.
This is true for premium brands only. The "normal" ones are still actively selling combinations of everything you've said including manual transmission. Petrol engine is not preferred by EU people, they prefer diesel; it's true that nowadays there isn't much of a choice if you want petrol, though.
It is true for "normal" ones too. I was checking recently, and the cut-off seemed to be at 110kW (1.5TSI) for VW Group (Skoda, Seat) and 118kW for Mazda. Above that, only automatic.
I don't know any 'normal' (as in regular) people who would buy above that. Europeans are used to small cubatures, the average would be around 1.6 to 1.8 (and that's considered big).
You can buy 2.0 TDi Skoda with manual (consider they have different offerings across Europe).
You can buy 2.0 TDi Skoda with manual (consider they have different offerings across Europe).
Here, the 2.0 TDI with manual is the 110kW one, just like the 1.5 TSI one, also available with manual. If you want bigger engine, i.e. 2.0 TSI 132 kW or 2.0 TDI 140 kW, it's DSG only.
That is for tax reasons, the same reason lng conversions where popular in Italy (where evading / reducing tax is a national sport).
Btw this is a quote from my Italian driving instructor at the time
Btw this is a quote from my Italian driving instructor at the time
If anyone here is in Germany, I'd like to ask you: what will it take for you to stop driving?
Previously on hn: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16375534
Previously on hn: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16375534
I live in Germany, and I neither have a driver's license, nor do I own a car. Same for many of my friends and colleagues.
In cities, almost everything is faster by bike than by car. European cities are very dense, parking space is scarce and many inner cities are car-free.
Public transport infrastructure is great and while people like to complain about Deutsche Bahn (the railway company), it's still more predictable and comfortable than driving a car.
Oh, and did I mention how much money it saves not to own a car?
In cities, almost everything is faster by bike than by car. European cities are very dense, parking space is scarce and many inner cities are car-free.
Public transport infrastructure is great and while people like to complain about Deutsche Bahn (the railway company), it's still more predictable and comfortable than driving a car.
Oh, and did I mention how much money it saves not to own a car?
Are you in Berlin?
> Oh, and did I mention how munch money it saves not to own a car?
Yap. So true
Yap. So true
I think you meant that you are young and live in a big German city and benefit from the generous pubic subsidy.
re: the saving money buy not owning a car yes I am sure all the commuters to London would like to live in central London housing is still more expensive than a car
re: the saving money buy not owning a car yes I am sure all the commuters to London would like to live in central London housing is still more expensive than a car
I live in Germany and own a car. Public transport is 2x-3x slower than driving and costs more.
Do you know the state of German public transport? Not much, thanks, I’ll take the car.
After I moved back from the US to Germany after having lived and worked there for almost a decade I never got a car. I walk (that's the #1 mode of transport by far), I bike (#2), I use public transport (rarely). In the US I drove enough to last a lifetime, I spent way too much time of my life in cars. The worst of owning a car is that I have to spend so much time and energy on that... "thing". Where yo I park it? Is it clean? Does it need an inspection? Insurance? It's like owning a horse but without the benefits (of a living companion). I use the horse not because of the transport analogy but because it's big and requires lots of your time and resources too (food, insurance, medical expenses, housing it,...).
Frankly, none of the things you mentioned as a hurdle I see as such: Where to park it? In garage, obviously. Is it clean? Mostly yes, washing is a matter of 30 minutes. Does it need an inspection? Once in two years. Insurance? Just like another bill, you can pay it over Internet too.
However:
Do you live alone? If no, how do you do your shopping, for example? Do you have kids? If yes, how do you transport them?
However:
Do you live alone? If no, how do you do your shopping, for example? Do you have kids? If yes, how do you transport them?
Everyone of those is a hurdle for those who live in a western or central European city.
Where do you park your car? On the street, in a designated parking zone, which happens to be a five to ten minute walk from where you live (because the handful of spots closer to your apartment are already taken).
Where do you wash your car? Not in your driveway (because you don't have one) or on the street in front of your apartment, because that's - quite frankly - illegal. So, you have to take it to a car wash, which is inconvenient.
Car inspections... well, on that, I can only speak for Germany and Switzerland. In our case, the engine bay and undercarriage needs to be thoroughly washed before going for an inspection, any sign of rust is an automatic failure, and the criteria overall are much stricter than in the US and UK.
America (or even just suburban America) and other car-friendly Anglo-Saxon countries are more of an exception than a fair representation of how the average person relates to owning and driving a car.
Where do you park your car? On the street, in a designated parking zone, which happens to be a five to ten minute walk from where you live (because the handful of spots closer to your apartment are already taken).
Where do you wash your car? Not in your driveway (because you don't have one) or on the street in front of your apartment, because that's - quite frankly - illegal. So, you have to take it to a car wash, which is inconvenient.
Car inspections... well, on that, I can only speak for Germany and Switzerland. In our case, the engine bay and undercarriage needs to be thoroughly washed before going for an inspection, any sign of rust is an automatic failure, and the criteria overall are much stricter than in the US and UK.
America (or even just suburban America) and other car-friendly Anglo-Saxon countries are more of an exception than a fair representation of how the average person relates to owning and driving a car.
I do live in Central Europe.
However, the people who consider that hurdle are usually young people, living alone. Their focus now is to enjoy the life, travel, socialising, etc.
In a few years, they will have partner, kids, and they will find out, that the car saves them a lot of time. It they can do in 10 minutes, what used to take 45? Sure, bring it on. That's exactly the reason why I and my similarly aged friends got the cars: the day has only 24 hours, and compared to that, car-related costs are only an expense, and quite a small ones in the bigger scheme of things.
However, the people who consider that hurdle are usually young people, living alone. Their focus now is to enjoy the life, travel, socialising, etc.
In a few years, they will have partner, kids, and they will find out, that the car saves them a lot of time. It they can do in 10 minutes, what used to take 45? Sure, bring it on. That's exactly the reason why I and my similarly aged friends got the cars: the day has only 24 hours, and compared to that, car-related costs are only an expense, and quite a small ones in the bigger scheme of things.
Many Europeans live in inner cities. Shops are nearby. Kids walk, take public transport or ride bikes like the rest of us. Why choose to live in such a way were a car is necessary? The amount of time, money and effort that is saved by working, eating, sleeping and generally living in the same place is well worth any added housing costs.
Many, but not as many as the HN crowd thinks. In France, 80%+ households have at least one car, and 70%ish of commutes to work happen by car.
It’s easy to forget if you live in the centre of the capital city of course.
It’s easy to forget if you live in the centre of the capital city of course.
Yes. Western Europe actually has more cars per capita than the US: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/it...
That said, I know many people who only use them occasionally. Gas is expensive here.
That said, I know many people who only use them occasionally. Gas is expensive here.
I do too, but I mostly know people who live in a city center, or a close suburb. I saw the statistics about the various commute mechanisms recently, and it was an interesting reminder that my intuition about this was way off (I would have guessed 50%+ public transport, when it's really 70%+ car).
This is also true for a growing number of Americans. When I lived in DC (I now live in Europe), the worst thing about getting an otherwise beneficial job lateral was the need to get a car.
And this comes from someone who enjoys driving.
And this comes from someone who enjoys driving.
A garage is a quite expensive proposition - in the dense cities (where much of Europeans live) they simply aren't a thing, they're scarce and expensive. A garage where I live would add something like 30% to my housing price or rent and would cost more than the fuel for my car; a garage "somewhere out of the way" (people who like to tinker with cars/motorcycles sometimes get one, functionally more like a workshop than car storage) is useless for commuting since you'd have to drive or take public transport to get to the garage.
> Where to park it? In garage, obviously.
Most people in Germany don't have a garage. Apart from that: the other part of the question is "where do I park my car when I'm not at home?", which is about 50% of the time. Inner cities in Germany don't have giant parking spots but narrow streets with parallel parking on the street with parking fees.
Most people in Germany don't have a garage. Apart from that: the other part of the question is "where do I park my car when I'm not at home?", which is about 50% of the time. Inner cities in Germany don't have giant parking spots but narrow streets with parallel parking on the street with parking fees.
Where do you go, what's on the other side of your ride?
At work; we have a parking lot. When visiting business partners, they have visitor parking. Shops also do have parking. Even the small gym that I visit has a parking lot (small one, but they don't want to lose customers after all). There are not many reasons to go to inner city, just for pubs. And there's no way you can go to pub and then drive anyway. All the small shops disappeared from the city centre years ago, because the patrons had a problem getting there. If you want the cheapest, but still clean and representable office space, you go into the city centre, into the pedestrian zone. Just don't expect many visits there, or even a fast internet connection for your office.
Yes, I do live in Europe. Not in DE, though.
At work; we have a parking lot. When visiting business partners, they have visitor parking. Shops also do have parking. Even the small gym that I visit has a parking lot (small one, but they don't want to lose customers after all). There are not many reasons to go to inner city, just for pubs. And there's no way you can go to pub and then drive anyway. All the small shops disappeared from the city centre years ago, because the patrons had a problem getting there. If you want the cheapest, but still clean and representable office space, you go into the city centre, into the pedestrian zone. Just don't expect many visits there, or even a fast internet connection for your office.
Yes, I do live in Europe. Not in DE, though.
> All the small shops disappeared from the city centre years ago, because the patrons had a problem getting there.
Luckily in Germany there are quite a lot pedestrian zones ("Fußgängerzonen") for shopping where motorized vehicles aren't even allowed and small businesses can thrive there. Cars have to park somewhere else and this can often become a problem. Parking is also quite expensive in major cities with parking fees up to 3€/hour. Building more parking lots into the inner cities is impossible and the fees are high to keep people moving.
> Shops also do have parking.
In Germany malls aren't very common. Inner cities are mostly mixed business and residential with shops on the lowest floor and apartments above.
Luckily in Germany there are quite a lot pedestrian zones ("Fußgängerzonen") for shopping where motorized vehicles aren't even allowed and small businesses can thrive there. Cars have to park somewhere else and this can often become a problem. Parking is also quite expensive in major cities with parking fees up to 3€/hour. Building more parking lots into the inner cities is impossible and the fees are high to keep people moving.
> Shops also do have parking.
In Germany malls aren't very common. Inner cities are mostly mixed business and residential with shops on the lowest floor and apartments above.
Regarding shopping, you get one of these:
https://www.amazon.de/Andersen-Royal-Shopper-Wismar-schwarz/...
It's also very common to have a reusable shopping bag in your everyday carry, and/or to carry your groceries in your backpack.
https://www.amazon.de/Andersen-Royal-Shopper-Wismar-schwarz/...
It's also very common to have a reusable shopping bag in your everyday carry, and/or to carry your groceries in your backpack.
I did that when I was younger.
Nowadays, we do weekly shopping. No way I would do that with public transport.
Nowadays, we do weekly shopping. No way I would do that with public transport.
Also how would they get to hospital in an emergency - your not guaranteed that the local hospital is where you need to go.
Parking in us vs europe is a huge difference. Not that it’s easy in either
Depends where in US, it's not all roses. I would not enjoy trying to park in south Manhattan, without having a rented space.
I live in Europe, though.
I live in Europe, though.
Like sibling replies, I've never driven or owned a car in my 5 years in Germany (and pervious 8 in Austria). This is not unusual for city dwellers.
Live in a german city and neither have a car. Public transport or even preferably bike
I live in Germany, but I'm not German. I need a car to drive to my home country. It's cheap, fast and comfortable in some ways. Other than that my car is rarely used. To work I go by public transport that I can supplement with kick scooter. Or by bike via shared bikes.
If I would be sure that I will not move back to home country I would probably look to sell the car.
If I would be sure that I will not move back to home country I would probably look to sell the car.
I'm german and don't have a car and don't plan to get one.
It's interesting how many people are eager to say they are German and disdain driving - yet Germany has more than one car per every two people.*
*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...
*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...
> If anyone here is in Germany, I'd like to ask you: what will it take for you to stop driving?
You asked this question on HN, which probably has a youger than median audience, which tends to value computers over cars and tends to work in tech related industries, living in cities. These answer are not representative of Germany in any way.
You asked this question on HN, which probably has a youger than median audience, which tends to value computers over cars and tends to work in tech related industries, living in cities. These answer are not representative of Germany in any way.
Ok they arrogantly ignored the hybrid and EVs and focused only on ICE, but I believe they will quickly catch up, just look at the bmw i3 for example.
It is however true that the end of ICE will be a huge blow to their industry, with millions of people poised to lose their jobs. But that is the same for every country having a lot of carmakers.
In my opinion the only field where they will not be able to catch up are autonomous vehicle, it is too abstract and revolutionary for them. It does not fit the german way of innovation based on small incremental innovative steps.