Ok, so you can’t decide(randsinrepose.com)
randsinrepose.com
Ok, so you can’t decide
https://randsinrepose.com/archives/ok-so-you-cant-decide/
118 comments
on a) I came to the same realization years ago. The fact that its a hard decision inherently means that either solution can be the right solution
i usually have analysis paralysis when the consequences of either decision is really dire. In short... i'm stuck between two bad choices.
That's exactly why I included realization b) :-)
I should have also added:
c) Sometimes, you perception has limited you to choosing between two choices. Change your perception enough to see that there are always a multitude of choices. You may not want to pick the 3rd+ choice, but knowing that you made your choices freely allows you to own the choice and the outcome.
I should have also added:
c) Sometimes, you perception has limited you to choosing between two choices. Change your perception enough to see that there are always a multitude of choices. You may not want to pick the 3rd+ choice, but knowing that you made your choices freely allows you to own the choice and the outcome.
Machiavelli said that it is worse to not make any choice at all than to make the wrong choice
The same thing from Joe Simpson in Touching the Void: "You gotta make decisions. You gotta keep making decisions, even if they’re wrong decisions. If you don’t make decisions, you’re stuffed".
Choosing is the same as not knowing.
Not choosing is a choice as well, the truth is that there are so many possible timelines but we will only ever experience one. So I would get comfortable with not knowing :)
A fair philosophical point.
In hunting and shooting sports we have a term, overscoped, that means your rifle scope is either too much for your rifle or you're at greater magnification than you should be.
This is the result of, yes, marketing, but also the kind of naive belief that more magnification → better.
The idea of always just throwing more brain-racking at a problem strikes me as similarly naive. Yes, getting down to work and doing the analysis is important, and sometimes there isn't enough of that. When you don't have enough, go ahead and add more.
But sometimes, the naive brute-force method isn't what’s called for. Sometimes, instead, you need to zoom out.
This is the result of, yes, marketing, but also the kind of naive belief that more magnification → better.
The idea of always just throwing more brain-racking at a problem strikes me as similarly naive. Yes, getting down to work and doing the analysis is important, and sometimes there isn't enough of that. When you don't have enough, go ahead and add more.
But sometimes, the naive brute-force method isn't what’s called for. Sometimes, instead, you need to zoom out.
A day or two ago, someone pointed to a great article on Melatonin[0]. I'm pretty sure it was a repeat, from a couple of years ago.
In any case, the thing that struck me, was the recommended dose, of 300 micrograms (0.3mg). Since the lowest OTC dosage is 3mg, and it goes up to at least 10mg, this was a shock. I have been taking 6-9 mg per night.
I immediately lowered the dosage to about 1mg (I have 300 microgram pills on order).
Slept like a baby.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28416035
In any case, the thing that struck me, was the recommended dose, of 300 micrograms (0.3mg). Since the lowest OTC dosage is 3mg, and it goes up to at least 10mg, this was a shock. I have been taking 6-9 mg per night.
I immediately lowered the dosage to about 1mg (I have 300 microgram pills on order).
Slept like a baby.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28416035
I don't have any great articles on this but it's a super sleep secret. Turn off your lights at night. Seriously people leave the lights on every second until they go to bed, but what you really need is for the lights to be off an hour before your planned bed time. You can still use screens, but at a distance (like a far away TV). If you need to see to get to bed, aim the phone at your feet on a low brightness setting.
When I moved house I made the bedroom electronics-free and put up blackout curtains. Also programmed the house to turn off most lights and din the remaining before bedtime. Night and day sleep quality change.
I've been suffering from insomnia since last year. To clarify, I'm talking about nights when my mind is either jumping from one place to another, imagining conversations with future doctors (I have an undiagnosed health condition which, after visiting many doctors in my country, a conclusive diagnosis is elusive) or interviews (I've been learning web development since last year but I'm still unemployed).
The combination of turning the lights off in my room, watch something relaxing/calming (that doesn't make me laugh hard or scared) for 1 hour before bed helped me, BUT I also had to use night light for my monitor (flux). I can get at best around 6 hours of sleep and has become my norm as my neighbors can get loud early morning.
Also, I always use relaxing apps to sleep. Rain sounds, white noise, music, I just install and uninstall them 3 times a week trying stuff out.
The combination of turning the lights off in my room, watch something relaxing/calming (that doesn't make me laugh hard or scared) for 1 hour before bed helped me, BUT I also had to use night light for my monitor (flux). I can get at best around 6 hours of sleep and has become my norm as my neighbors can get loud early morning.
Also, I always use relaxing apps to sleep. Rain sounds, white noise, music, I just install and uninstall them 3 times a week trying stuff out.
> I can get at best around 6 hours of sleep and has become my norm as my neighbors can get loud early morning.
Have you tried earplugs? They changed my life on days where people decide to be noisy, which is every other day here. I don't here the car honks, loud neighbors, and thunder anymore.
The best part is I still get woken up by my phone's alarm at full volume, even with earplugs on.
Have you tried earplugs? They changed my life on days where people decide to be noisy, which is every other day here. I don't here the car honks, loud neighbors, and thunder anymore.
The best part is I still get woken up by my phone's alarm at full volume, even with earplugs on.
Unfortunately I sleep on the side, plus wearing earplugs would mean that I'd listen to my tinnitus more than the raining/white noise app.
I don't know if the tinnitus part can be solved, but sleeping on the side is definitely not a problem. I'm talking about moss earplugs that are entirely contained inside the ear, not over-the-ear earmuffs.
I also sleep on the side and I can use earplugs.. It took me a few days to get used to it though!
I bought a lantern which emits a much redder frequency of light and started turning off my lights at night. I am indeed much happier.
I've done everything I could, including this and more drastic measures. Unfortunately, it's just not the 'super sleep secret' people keep promising it to be.
After years of terrible sleep, I gave in and started using melatonin daily. Every part of my life has improved.
After years of terrible sleep, I gave in and started using melatonin daily. Every part of my life has improved.
Did you find yourself upping the dose after a week or 2? I tried melatonin for a while (dissolvable in the mouth) but once I reached 3mg without falling asleep I just decided that I'm not gonna become dependent on it and stopped cold turkey.
I did not. I have been taking 3mg for months now, though I recently started to suspect it's too much, and dropped down to 1.5mg. If you are taking it at bedtime, rather than a couple of hours before, that can cause it to fail to be effective.
I haven't seen anything to suggest dependency is an issue, and, if I miss a dose (forget to take it until too late), I have reverted to my old sleeping pattern, rather than anything worse. No increased onset insomnia or anything like that.
I haven't seen anything to suggest dependency is an issue, and, if I miss a dose (forget to take it until too late), I have reverted to my old sleeping pattern, rather than anything worse. No increased onset insomnia or anything like that.
Here's a simple silly way to make some of those electronics LEDs not so piercing at night: https://www.lightdims.com/index.php
Just sticky bits of cellophane that let you still see the lights when you need them but not so intense at night. You can get them on amazon or w/e
Just sticky bits of cellophane that let you still see the lights when you need them but not so intense at night. You can get them on amazon or w/e
I have heard similar. I think that Apple's Night Mode is based on that.
General note: if your iPhone won't go dark enough at night even with night mode, look under Accessibility - Display & Text Size -> Reduce White Point. Set the sliding value to what's comfortable for you.
Then scroll down the Accessibility settings page to Accessibility Shortcut. This sets what happens when you triple-click the power button. If you set this to Reduce White Point (RWP), it will turn on/off RWP while remembering the slider setting you selected.
I find this invaluable when I wake up in the middle of the night and want to read for a bit without filling my eyes with light / risking waking anyone.
(Edited for spelling)
Then scroll down the Accessibility settings page to Accessibility Shortcut. This sets what happens when you triple-click the power button. If you set this to Reduce White Point (RWP), it will turn on/off RWP while remembering the slider setting you selected.
I find this invaluable when I wake up in the middle of the night and want to read for a bit without filling my eyes with light / risking waking anyone.
(Edited for spelling)
Surprised the heck out of me too, I would have intensely weird and disturbing dreams if I took a whole melatonin tablet (around 3-5mg). Slept a lot better once I started dividing them into quarters.
I use one or two drops out of a 3mg/1ml dropper. That's all it takes. I don't know why the OTC doses are so high. Maybe it's helpful for other purposes e.g. jet lag. But for sleep it's much too high a dosage.
It's not a total cure for delayed circadian rhythm (your hormone levels, body temp etc. are still out of sync) but as far as fitting into more typical "business hours" sleep schedule usually expected of us, it does the job.
It's not a total cure for delayed circadian rhythm (your hormone levels, body temp etc. are still out of sync) but as far as fitting into more typical "business hours" sleep schedule usually expected of us, it does the job.
I like liquid melatonin; it's 1mg / mL and you can just take .3mL to get a 300ug dose.
But yeah, if you go to like CVS or something they only sell 10mg doses. Would not recommend.
But yeah, if you go to like CVS or something they only sell 10mg doses. Would not recommend.
Can recommend Flux: https://justgetflux.com/.
Literally tunnel vision.
To explain overscoped to a non shooter…
You’re lined up on a target at 30x. Fighting your breathing, heart beat, movement from the rest / bipod / barricade. It’s never going to be perfectly steady, and that 30x magnification is showing every bit of sway and deviation of the target and your reticle.
On 10x, a guy can come in, line it up, and not see all of that deviation. He sees the target, the aiming point (which is rarely your exact cross hairs, a different topic) and just focus on a good trigger pull. The target is a lot smaller to him, but that’s ok because it’s not a complicated shot, just a small target.
There is also getting lined up for your next shot, the recoil on 30x means your field of view has jumped and left the target somewhere out in the ether. If you have multiple shots to make, the guy on 10x will be able to see his next, or at least track where he is now and needs to be next.
To explain overscoped to a non shooter…
You’re lined up on a target at 30x. Fighting your breathing, heart beat, movement from the rest / bipod / barricade. It’s never going to be perfectly steady, and that 30x magnification is showing every bit of sway and deviation of the target and your reticle.
On 10x, a guy can come in, line it up, and not see all of that deviation. He sees the target, the aiming point (which is rarely your exact cross hairs, a different topic) and just focus on a good trigger pull. The target is a lot smaller to him, but that’s ok because it’s not a complicated shot, just a small target.
There is also getting lined up for your next shot, the recoil on 30x means your field of view has jumped and left the target somewhere out in the ether. If you have multiple shots to make, the guy on 10x will be able to see his next, or at least track where he is now and needs to be next.
From experience, I've found that spending most time planning and the rest of the time executing tend to work well, so both have their merits.
Once, I was trying to decided between moving to North Carolina or Southern California for work (there is a song in that somewhere). Both sides had pros and cons, and I couldn't decide.... So I flipped a coin. It came up Carolina, so I flipped it agin and moved to California. It was amazing how having 'decided' I could then evaluate the other oppertunity.
(And I think the Carolina business suffered greatly during the 07 recession, but I bought a house in Cali before the market fell... so either way was a path with struggle.)
(And I think the Carolina business suffered greatly during the 07 recession, but I bought a house in Cali before the market fell... so either way was a path with struggle.)
Whenever you’re called on to make up your mind,
and you’re hampered by not having any,
best way to solve the dilemma, you’ll find,
is simply by spinning a penny.
No—not so that chance shall decide the affair
while you’re passively standing there moping;
but the moment the penny is up in the air,
you suddenly know what you’re hoping.
Came across this column/essay a while back on the theme of making life decisions based on what your future self would regret not doing, and it's stuck with me: https://therumpus.net/2011/04/dear-sugar-the-rumpus-advice-c...
>Once, I was trying to decided between moving to North Carolina or Southern California for work (there is a song in that somewhere). Both sides had pros and cons, and I couldn't decide.... So I flipped a coin. It came up Carolina, so I flipped it agin and moved to California
There is indeed a song there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvLjJE7Bt88.
There is indeed a song there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvLjJE7Bt88.
I'm hoping people who didn't grow up with 1990s country music at least look at the link and realize that the original comment is clearly a joking reference to the premise of that song.
(Also, for any musicians who dislike or are ambivalent toward country music, maybe even give it a listen. Those Nashville studio musicians are ridiculous.)
(Also, for any musicians who dislike or are ambivalent toward country music, maybe even give it a listen. Those Nashville studio musicians are ridiculous.)
Is it? Sounds like OP gave some additional background, unless those bits about the housing market and the business are in that song. I think OP referenced the song but the events described happened in their life.
Certainly could be, and if so it’s a delightful coincidence and a story I would tell often to fish for 1990s country music listeners. Although I doubt they actually flipped the coin in that exact way, unless they were inspired by the song to do so.
Also known as the Marine Corps PCS (permanent change of station) song.
yeah, I think it was in some movie - if you can't decide, flip a coin, and you will already know which side you want it to land while it's still in the air
also, if you can't decide it often (but not always) means choices are about equally good (unless you're missed something big), so you probably won't be terribly wrong either way
also, if you can't decide it often (but not always) means choices are about equally good (unless you're missed something big), so you probably won't be terribly wrong either way
Something similiar happened in 'the last king of scottland'. The protagonist is spinning the globe and says he will go anywhere he will point to. Then it came up too boring so he spun again.
I sometimes use a variation of this with others who are stuck: I just choose one for them. Half the time they accept it, and the other half of the time they go the other way. :)
Such was Niles' technique to help Frasier decide: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPYiCw9HHXo
If you're with a group of people who are trying to decide where to go to dinner, but no one's putting out suggestions or willing to make any hard calls:
Suggest you all go to McDonald's.
There's nothing that gets people to immediately shoot down an idea and suggest something else quite like the prospect of a Big Mac.
Suggest you all go to McDonald's.
There's nothing that gets people to immediately shoot down an idea and suggest something else quite like the prospect of a Big Mac.
My "group decision on where to eat" rule is pretty simply but works well:
* Anyone can veto a suggestion, but they must suggest an alternate restaurant (that has not already been vetoed) instead.
This rule is gameable. A bad faith participant could veto a restaurant and suggest a patently horrible one and then rely on someone else to veto that and do the work to come up with a good suggestion. But there is a meta-rule here which is:
* Don't be friends with people who would do that.
* Anyone can veto a suggestion, but they must suggest an alternate restaurant (that has not already been vetoed) instead.
This rule is gameable. A bad faith participant could veto a restaurant and suggest a patently horrible one and then rely on someone else to veto that and do the work to come up with a good suggestion. But there is a meta-rule here which is:
* Don't be friends with people who would do that.
We permit a restaurant to be suggested a second time, but only by the person that vetoed it. Suppose someone vetoed the Cuban place, but no other idea was agreeable to the group. If they just didn’t want to go there but could do it, they can suggest it again and that’s usually where the group goes (when this happens). Otherwise we use the same process, it’s very effective.
This works OK, too.
I prefer the "no revisiting" rule because it places backpressure on participants to not veto unless they really meann it. If they really would be OK with the restaurant such that they would allow revisiting it, then they probably shouldn't veto in the first place.
This tends to make the game go faster, which is an important goal.
I prefer the "no revisiting" rule because it places backpressure on participants to not veto unless they really meann it. If they really would be OK with the restaurant such that they would allow revisiting it, then they probably shouldn't veto in the first place.
This tends to make the game go faster, which is an important goal.
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> But there is a meta-rule here which is:
> * Don't be friends with people who would do that.
Lol, I think this is actually very generalizable for.. many rules. Pretty good call.
> * Don't be friends with people who would do that.
Lol, I think this is actually very generalizable for.. many rules. Pretty good call.
Steve Jobs told to his associates: “If by the end of the night you don’t find a name, I’ll send the paperwork with ‘Apple’.”
So he had 8hrs sleep and a name.
That strategy didn’t work well for Jeff Bezos, who went with “Cadabra” for a few months, which he admits is a terrible name (cadavra).
So he had 8hrs sleep and a name.
That strategy didn’t work well for Jeff Bezos, who went with “Cadabra” for a few months, which he admits is a terrible name (cadavra).
In most groups I find myself in, the likelier collective response would be closer to "oh my gosh, I haven't been there forever because I try to be healthy, but that sure does sound good."
Except I lost on that one because some of my coworkers were all over the buy one get one free Big Mac on Tuesdays a few years ago.
A 2-big-mac lunch sounds like a terrible idea
If I buy one and give you the free one this time, we can do it the other way next time.
PS I'm almost always open for McDonald's lunch, so that one isn't going to encourage me to give a good idea. Not eating at Jack in the Box though, would rather starve, thanks.
PS I'm almost always open for McDonald's lunch, so that one isn't going to encourage me to give a good idea. Not eating at Jack in the Box though, would rather starve, thanks.
I can't any more in my 50's, but up through college that would have been no problem at all.
McDonald's food is nice from time to time, at least in France.
McDonald’s in France is kind of a cut above McDonald’s elsewhere, even neighboring countries and very similar markets. I’ve been to McDonald’s all over Western and Northern Europe, and the McDonald’s on the right bank in Lyon will forever hold a special place in my heart
McDonald’s in the Levant and Middle East is similarly of much higher quality than many other locales around the world.
The McDonalds I was at in Moscow was not only clean and well maintained, they were hosting a kids birthday party, and the parents felt comfortable enough to drop off the kids and leave.
McDonald's in Milan serves macarons, and that is why it holds a special place in my heart!
Which one do you mean if you remember? There are McDonald's everywhere in Lyon.
I ate at a Paris McDonald's a couple times in 2008, there was something wrong with the way their fries came out. Not sure if they used regional potatoes and didn't adjust the processing or what. The burgers met my expectations though.
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I can find something anywhere, so I use your trick to determine the pickiest eater in the group, and then make them choose.
I love a Big Mac.
Trust me, so do I. But when you're picking between "trendy Thai place" and "trendy bar down the street," the suggestion of McDonald's really sharpens people's metaphorical knives.
Yeah, I read that and asked myself "Am I a garbage person?".
No, everyone else is just pretending they don't like McDonald's for that valuable elitist cred.
You might luck out and find people agree to go there.
Be fine for me; a Big Mac is kind of my 2-3x/year guilty pleasure.
Cunningham’s Law IRL
Never underestimate the efficacy of light to moderate physical activity in synthesizing information without necessarily directly thinking about the topic at hand.
We enter a different thinking mode, termed "diffuse", where the release of focus allows us to subconsciously zoom out and stitch together the newly acquired information and partial revelations into a clearer more advanced picture.
We enter a different thinking mode, termed "diffuse", where the release of focus allows us to subconsciously zoom out and stitch together the newly acquired information and partial revelations into a clearer more advanced picture.
Eli Goldratt used to sometimes say "If you're looking at a problem and see no solution, it means one thing: You're looking at the problem too narrowly."
Need to have a big think? Leave phone in office, 30min walk outside. Amazing.
I 100% agree. Background processing is the way to go!
Taking a long shower also does it for me.
Talking a bathroom break was most effective to cure a blank mind during a long test at school. At least if they would let you go.
That works fine until someone else camps out in the stall where you stashed your notes.
In threads like this one, I sometimes mention the parable of the Chinese Farmer as told by Alan Watts.[1] It's easily found on YouTube.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX0OARBqBp0
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX0OARBqBp0
Nice parable. To anyone that hears it and gets convinced that you can never tell what's good or bad in the world, please note that this only applies to single events within a large complicated system. Not large emergent systemic effects.
For the sake of not being an over-confident, fledgeling sentience ape; the complexity involved in the question of "is this good or bad" are absolutely, overwhelmingly complex.
----------
If you wanted to truly answer such a question you have to:
1. Be able to perceive multiple timelines in their entirety and
2. be able to convert those entire timelines into some comparable values
From where we stand, both of those are impossible, and whatever cascading effects may come from any action are completely invisible. We simply do not know the long term outcomes of our actions, and rarely can prove even short-term causation in the first place.
There's an ocean between:
- "I did x because I thought it was the right thing" and
- "I can tell what's good or bad in the world"
----------
If you wanted to truly answer such a question you have to:
1. Be able to perceive multiple timelines in their entirety and
2. be able to convert those entire timelines into some comparable values
From where we stand, both of those are impossible, and whatever cascading effects may come from any action are completely invisible. We simply do not know the long term outcomes of our actions, and rarely can prove even short-term causation in the first place.
There's an ocean between:
- "I did x because I thought it was the right thing" and
- "I can tell what's good or bad in the world"
I agree.
What I mean by large systemic effects is for example climate change.
I can not know whether me personally, as a specific individual, buying an electric car to go to work is better or worse for the ecosystem than buying a used fuel efficient ICE.
I can know that all the carbon we dump in the air and the general carelessness with which we treat the planet on a large scale are extremely detrimental to our civilisational wellbeing.
I btw highly recommended Breaking Boundaries on Netflix.
I can not know whether me personally, as a specific individual, buying an electric car to go to work is better or worse for the ecosystem than buying a used fuel efficient ICE.
I can know that all the carbon we dump in the air and the general carelessness with which we treat the planet on a large scale are extremely detrimental to our civilisational wellbeing.
I btw highly recommended Breaking Boundaries on Netflix.
> I can know that all the carbon we dump in the air and the general carelessness with which we treat the planet on a large scale are extremely detrimental to our civilisational wellbeing.
You really, really, really can not. For all you know, the impending doom of climate change could be the chaotic event that stops us from going full nuclear.
Or perhaps humans are bad fruit, and our form of space colonization is filled with rape, torture, and slavery. Perhaps it's better humans die.
One really, really, really can not know.
You really, really, really can not. For all you know, the impending doom of climate change could be the chaotic event that stops us from going full nuclear.
Or perhaps humans are bad fruit, and our form of space colonization is filled with rape, torture, and slavery. Perhaps it's better humans die.
One really, really, really can not know.
I can see where you’re coming from but you have departed into theoretical/philosophical mode that’s not useful.
I really really really can’t know if the sun comes up tomorrow or 100 days from now either, but it is exceedingly likely and the same is true about my previous statement.
Disregard at your own (and all of our) peril.
I really really really can’t know if the sun comes up tomorrow or 100 days from now either, but it is exceedingly likely and the same is true about my previous statement.
Disregard at your own (and all of our) peril.
Much the opposite. Yours is the belief which every war has been fought over: the belief that you know what's good and bad, or right and wrong.
I am in no way saying we shouldn't pursue it, or do our best. But simply admitting that we could be wrong is the first step to catching our own mistakes.
Being aware of our own ignorance is important. Extremely so. And failing to see it is a far greater source of peril than "depart[ing] into theoretical/philosophical mode"
I am in no way saying we shouldn't pursue it, or do our best. But simply admitting that we could be wrong is the first step to catching our own mistakes.
Being aware of our own ignorance is important. Extremely so. And failing to see it is a far greater source of peril than "depart[ing] into theoretical/philosophical mode"
I am fully aware that we all make mistakes and we can all be wrong.
But when you say: > Much the opposite. Yours is the belief which every war has been fought over: the belief that you know what's good and bad, or right and wrong.
I can also say that the same is true for all progress the world has seen. That some group of people made a decision and acted.
It’s about likelihoods. Everything can be wrong but some things are more likely than others.
But when you say: > Much the opposite. Yours is the belief which every war has been fought over: the belief that you know what's good and bad, or right and wrong.
I can also say that the same is true for all progress the world has seen. That some group of people made a decision and acted.
It’s about likelihoods. Everything can be wrong but some things are more likely than others.
> I can also say that the same is true for all progress the world has seen
Science, art, and creation all tend to be rich with ambiguity and uncertainty.
Most of the time, people hope they can do a thing and stick to it through many ups and downs. And the times when it works out, even the people who believed in it all along appear to be surprised.
Science, art, and creation all tend to be rich with ambiguity and uncertainty.
Most of the time, people hope they can do a thing and stick to it through many ups and downs. And the times when it works out, even the people who believed in it all along appear to be surprised.
Can you give a few examples of "large emergent systemic effects"? Just curious.
Climate change.
The Coddling of the American Mind.
The Coddling of the American Mind.
What if climate change gives humanity the incentive/drive to create new technologies that end up not only overcoming it but also advancing civilization in ways that we otherwise never would have even dreamed possible?
What if we discover that everyone really can "just get along" because we coddled 300 million people into believing it, and it actually becomes a reality in the US and spreads throughout the globe? Even the Taliban ends up being nice and people don't even get picked on in school anymore. I mean...its possible right?
What if we discover that everyone really can "just get along" because we coddled 300 million people into believing it, and it actually becomes a reality in the US and spreads throughout the globe? Even the Taliban ends up being nice and people don't even get picked on in school anymore. I mean...its possible right?
The chance of something good coming out of climate change is much lower than that of, e.g. me burning my hand taking something out of the oven.
Re: coddling of the American mind, I was talking about increasing intolerance of opposing views views, decreasing willingness to seek truth, seeing words as violence etc. It's hard to see a path where this type of thinking becomes universal. No matter how strong that movement, it won't completely eradicate those who believe in freedom of thoughts and freedom of speech.
Re: coddling of the American mind, I was talking about increasing intolerance of opposing views views, decreasing willingness to seek truth, seeing words as violence etc. It's hard to see a path where this type of thinking becomes universal. No matter how strong that movement, it won't completely eradicate those who believe in freedom of thoughts and freedom of speech.
"The chance of something good coming out of climate change is much lower than that of, e.g. me burning my hand taking something out of the oven."
I'm not sure how you can fairly put odds on something as complex as climate change, but say you're right. Even so, its still consistent with the parable. What are the odds if your horse runs away that it returns with 7 wild horses? Probably not that good, but it could happen.
Like in the parable, you are the neighbor saying "climate change, isn't it awful?" and the farmer would say "maybe". And he wouldn't be wrong. Because maybe implies uncertainty, and you seem to agree it's possible something good can come from climate change. So the parable seems to apply to "emergent systemic effects" as well.
But more importantly the real lesson is how that one can chill the fuck out, like the farmer. The neighbors' emotions are ruled by events, but not the farmer because he's not trying to judge these things that are out of his control. It doesn't mean he wouldn't fight climate change. It does mean though he's not gonna be an emotional wreck every time he turns on the news.
I'm not sure how you can fairly put odds on something as complex as climate change, but say you're right. Even so, its still consistent with the parable. What are the odds if your horse runs away that it returns with 7 wild horses? Probably not that good, but it could happen.
Like in the parable, you are the neighbor saying "climate change, isn't it awful?" and the farmer would say "maybe". And he wouldn't be wrong. Because maybe implies uncertainty, and you seem to agree it's possible something good can come from climate change. So the parable seems to apply to "emergent systemic effects" as well.
But more importantly the real lesson is how that one can chill the fuck out, like the farmer. The neighbors' emotions are ruled by events, but not the farmer because he's not trying to judge these things that are out of his control. It doesn't mean he wouldn't fight climate change. It does mean though he's not gonna be an emotional wreck every time he turns on the news.
I would also appreciate some examples of large emergent system effects, if you are willing to provide some.
The most important one now is Climate change, see my other comment.
I was reminded recently that there is a practical solution if people really wanted to get off fossil fuels right now.
It's not solar, wind, hydro or fusion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor
I'm not interested in a debate, just observing that people who say (correctly or incorrectly) the world is coming to an end don't believe it, because otherwise they'd stop bickering and do what needs to be done.
It's not solar, wind, hydro or fusion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor
I'm not interested in a debate, just observing that people who say (correctly or incorrectly) the world is coming to an end don't believe it, because otherwise they'd stop bickering and do what needs to be done.
I think there’s an incorrect assumption in there, that the people blowing the whistle for the last 30 years have been the people calling the shots.
The world isn’t coming to an end but our cozy place in it might very well be.
Nuclear power should have been the only thing built by rich countries for the last 5 decades but of course there are real dangers regarding the unreliability of us humans as maintainers and operators.
The world isn’t coming to an end but our cozy place in it might very well be.
Nuclear power should have been the only thing built by rich countries for the last 5 decades but of course there are real dangers regarding the unreliability of us humans as maintainers and operators.
The people calling the shots may believe that the costs of stopping climate change outweigh the benefits.
On the other hand, they may just think there is no political route to stopping it.
I have never been an advocate of nuclear power in general, and I don't think the world needs more conventional fission reactors. I don't believe fusion power will ever be viable either.
But my pop-sci understanding of a fast breeder reactor is it consumes waste and produces more fuel.
Couldn't it be ripe for someone to take up a similar role to SpaceX only with nuclear power? Assuming we do really believe that climate change has to be stopped at any cost.
On the other hand, they may just think there is no political route to stopping it.
I have never been an advocate of nuclear power in general, and I don't think the world needs more conventional fission reactors. I don't believe fusion power will ever be viable either.
But my pop-sci understanding of a fast breeder reactor is it consumes waste and produces more fuel.
Couldn't it be ripe for someone to take up a similar role to SpaceX only with nuclear power? Assuming we do really believe that climate change has to be stopped at any cost.
I think the crucial point is that although "you can never tell" with certainty, you can be pretty sure of many things.
While all this and most other advises are applicable to career, money, and tangible things, what does one do when unable to make a decision in intangible things like relationships and love life?
Asking because stuck in a situation where not sure what choice is better for me, for the other person and there is nothing that's helping me decide.
"Long bike ride" - this is the way! Something about relatively steady low-intensity exercise does wonders for the brain.
I believe if I collect enough information the best decision will stand out. Yet rarely is this the case. I continue to rehash the same thoughts, think there's information I'm overlooking and so continue to search. But the yield from doing so continues to diminish. Then I read the following from the book On Being Certain:
Without a circuit breaker, indecision and inaction would rule the day. What is needed is a mental switch that stops infinite ruminations and calms our fears of missing an unknown superior alternative. Such a switch can't be a thought or we would be back at the same problem. The simplest solution would be a sensation that feels like a thought but isn't subject to thought's perpetual self-questioning. The constellation of mental states that constitutes the feeling of knowing is a marvelous adaptation that solves a very real metaphysical dilemma of how to reach a conclusion. [0]
This clicked to me. I try to think my way to a decision. But what I really need is a feeling.
[0] https://www.rburton.com/_i_on_being_certain_i___believing_yo...
Without a circuit breaker, indecision and inaction would rule the day. What is needed is a mental switch that stops infinite ruminations and calms our fears of missing an unknown superior alternative. Such a switch can't be a thought or we would be back at the same problem. The simplest solution would be a sensation that feels like a thought but isn't subject to thought's perpetual self-questioning. The constellation of mental states that constitutes the feeling of knowing is a marvelous adaptation that solves a very real metaphysical dilemma of how to reach a conclusion. [0]
This clicked to me. I try to think my way to a decision. But what I really need is a feeling.
[0] https://www.rburton.com/_i_on_being_certain_i___believing_yo...
"If you can't choose wisely, choose randomly" remains my favourite discussion of this issue:
As moderns, we take it for granted that the best decisions stem from a process of empirical analysis and informed choice, with a clear goal in mind. That kind of decision-making, at least in theory, undergirds the ways that we choose political leaders, play the stock market, and select candidates for schools and jobs. It also shapes the way in which we critique the rituals and superstitions of others. But, as the Kantu’ illustrate, there are plenty of situations when random chance really is your best option. And those situations might be far more prevalent in our modern lives than we generally admit.
https://aeon.co/essays/if-you-can-t-choose-wisely-choose-ran...
Randomness, in the face of insufficient information or a poorly-scoped model for interpreting data, at least avoids the overt biases of bad decisionmaking systems.
As moderns, we take it for granted that the best decisions stem from a process of empirical analysis and informed choice, with a clear goal in mind. That kind of decision-making, at least in theory, undergirds the ways that we choose political leaders, play the stock market, and select candidates for schools and jobs. It also shapes the way in which we critique the rituals and superstitions of others. But, as the Kantu’ illustrate, there are plenty of situations when random chance really is your best option. And those situations might be far more prevalent in our modern lives than we generally admit.
https://aeon.co/essays/if-you-can-t-choose-wisely-choose-ran...
Randomness, in the face of insufficient information or a poorly-scoped model for interpreting data, at least avoids the overt biases of bad decisionmaking systems.
> The defining characteristic of the great relief is the sense of immediate progress. After days or weeks of careful analysis, you are suddenly moving forward again and… it’s a delightful relief. You are no longer stuck endlessly second-guessing yourself.
I truly wish this were my experience. If I'm facing a decision that it really hard for me to make, then once I've made it, I experience no such relief.
I truly wish this were my experience. If I'm facing a decision that it really hard for me to make, then once I've made it, I experience no such relief.
there's a related effect that feeds into this, that is the subject of Robert Frost's poem "the road not taken": if we make a decision and things go well, we typically put the outcome down to our decision, regardless of whether it made a difference. So we get to thinking that our decisions really matter, even if they hardly do at all.
When I am in a stalemate between a couple of options I find it easiest to use a decision maker app [1]
If I feel bad about the decision I try again until I feel good about it. Letting go of the choice and leaving it to fate to decide kinda sets you free.
[1] https://easydecisionmaker.com/
If I feel bad about the decision I try again until I feel good about it. Letting go of the choice and leaving it to fate to decide kinda sets you free.
[1] https://easydecisionmaker.com/
Which isn't necessarily relying on fate as much as rerouting the decision function through an external api to figure out what your internal choice state was in the first place
Failing that, just look at the second or minute indication on a nearby clock, modulo the number of options in your choice. You probably don't know exactly what time it is, so the clock's LSD is basically a 1d10 roll.
> Even if unexpected consequences begin to show up, you eagerly attack them because consequences are more fun than mental paralysis.
Isn't this what got you mental paralysis in the first place? And why young people are generally more risk-taking? As you get more experience, you learn that every endeavor hides unknown risks.
It's this uncertainty (and unknown) that makes you hesitant. If you did enough endeavors that made you go through significant pain, you'll likely don't want to go through the experience again.
Isn't this what got you mental paralysis in the first place? And why young people are generally more risk-taking? As you get more experience, you learn that every endeavor hides unknown risks.
It's this uncertainty (and unknown) that makes you hesitant. If you did enough endeavors that made you go through significant pain, you'll likely don't want to go through the experience again.
I think this guy is spot on. I've learned, reluctantly, that if I leave the house feeling like I've forgotten something, I usually have. Maybe it didn't matter, but better to know that before leaving.
Of course he wouldn't advise dithering forever, but if your subconscious is making you anxious about the decision, it might be for a good reason.
Of course he wouldn't advise dithering forever, but if your subconscious is making you anxious about the decision, it might be for a good reason.
I like randomness for these kinds of things. A special coin if the options are balanced, an enormous metal icosahedron (the D20 of Decision) if I feel like shading things out in five percentage point probabilities, or a Tarot deck if I am looking for reflection on my own thoughts.
An old poker trick: A watch works well for this. You can assign probabilities to actions based on where the second hand is. So for example, Suppose you think it should be 80% action A, 10% action B, 10% action C. If, when you glance at your watch, the second hand lies between:
0 and 6 seconds --> Action C
6 and 12 seconds --> Action B
12-60 seconds --> Action A
Another useful trick I use is to take the sequential digits of pi mod (n) for n possible actions. I happen to remember 40 digits or so of pi, so I can produce 40 very random-looking actions that way.
0 and 6 seconds --> Action C
6 and 12 seconds --> Action B
12-60 seconds --> Action A
Another useful trick I use is to take the sequential digits of pi mod (n) for n possible actions. I happen to remember 40 digits or so of pi, so I can produce 40 very random-looking actions that way.
I do those, too!
Personal anecdote: I refuse to blog anymore because I can't find the right CMS to use. I have weighed the pros and cons so heavily over a whole decade and just can't decide what to use (And I've used them all). Posthaven, Wordpress, Ghost, WriteFreely & Write.as, Blogger, Tumblr and a few others.
Now I am aware of the phrase: 'If you wait until you are ready, you will never get it done'. But I've actually blogged professionally for about 3 years and saw what that meant. You had journalists cold-calling you in the middle of the night because your blogpost was going viral, traffic going through the roof.
Though the blog didn't go down because of the traffic, I was still paying for the CDN monthly which at the time because of AD revenue didn't hurt my pocket as much. Today I simply can't afford it, and out of respect for my users, I won't serve ADS. So the workaround for many in that situation, is to go with a free service like wordpress.com or Tumblr or Blogger etc. But they're all weaponized with ADs and tracking cookies, and I don't want to make my users suffer loss of privacy because of what I've written.
I used to self host, but then even that comes with caveats: can you harden the VPS enough to stop bots and bad actors getting in and ruining your blog? How does the CMS bounce back after the VPS has been rebooted? All these stupid edge cases can make you go insane. Then the CMS itself has to be configured the right way. Have you got HSTS turned on? Have you got your caching right? Are all your images optimized?
It's too much. I prefer to just lurk on various Internet forums since I can still reach a large audience that way, albeit even forums come with caveats. So far certain communities haven't had their Eternal September yet, and places like Tildes.net look promising. In the end, it was a good run, but it can't last. Maybe I'll take up blogging again, when I'm 'not ready' for it and DGAF anymore, who knows?
Now I am aware of the phrase: 'If you wait until you are ready, you will never get it done'. But I've actually blogged professionally for about 3 years and saw what that meant. You had journalists cold-calling you in the middle of the night because your blogpost was going viral, traffic going through the roof.
Though the blog didn't go down because of the traffic, I was still paying for the CDN monthly which at the time because of AD revenue didn't hurt my pocket as much. Today I simply can't afford it, and out of respect for my users, I won't serve ADS. So the workaround for many in that situation, is to go with a free service like wordpress.com or Tumblr or Blogger etc. But they're all weaponized with ADs and tracking cookies, and I don't want to make my users suffer loss of privacy because of what I've written.
I used to self host, but then even that comes with caveats: can you harden the VPS enough to stop bots and bad actors getting in and ruining your blog? How does the CMS bounce back after the VPS has been rebooted? All these stupid edge cases can make you go insane. Then the CMS itself has to be configured the right way. Have you got HSTS turned on? Have you got your caching right? Are all your images optimized?
It's too much. I prefer to just lurk on various Internet forums since I can still reach a large audience that way, albeit even forums come with caveats. So far certain communities haven't had their Eternal September yet, and places like Tildes.net look promising. In the end, it was a good run, but it can't last. Maybe I'll take up blogging again, when I'm 'not ready' for it and DGAF anymore, who knows?
You can use a static site generator (such as Hugo), and host it for free on GitHub with your domain. Zero costs, zero maintenance and zero headaches.
Tried Github; didn't like it.
1: I prefer EU companies with strict privacy laws. I only host with Switzerland.
2: Github won't be happy with 1/2 million unique IPs in a day hitting their servers when a post goes viral. (That's an expense on their part)
3: With a free GH account everything is public knowledge and every change made to your blog is visible via diffs. I don't want nosey people poring over every mistake I made in posts. I'm not sure it's possible to have a Github Pages instance that is private.
4: Whilst 3rd party tools assist in markdown generation (for use with Jekyll and Hugo), you still have to peek inside templates to customize everything to your liking. Something I am tired of doing.
5: Whilst TLS & HTTPS on Github pages is supported, I still have problems getting it to work properly. Seems to only work on {username}.github.io and not a custom domain.
6: There are issues with what URL to serve to on GH Pages. Do I use `www.site.com` or `site.com`? And how does the server negotiate which one to use?
1: I prefer EU companies with strict privacy laws. I only host with Switzerland.
2: Github won't be happy with 1/2 million unique IPs in a day hitting their servers when a post goes viral. (That's an expense on their part)
3: With a free GH account everything is public knowledge and every change made to your blog is visible via diffs. I don't want nosey people poring over every mistake I made in posts. I'm not sure it's possible to have a Github Pages instance that is private.
4: Whilst 3rd party tools assist in markdown generation (for use with Jekyll and Hugo), you still have to peek inside templates to customize everything to your liking. Something I am tired of doing.
5: Whilst TLS & HTTPS on Github pages is supported, I still have problems getting it to work properly. Seems to only work on {username}.github.io and not a custom domain.
6: There are issues with what URL to serve to on GH Pages. Do I use `www.site.com` or `site.com`? And how does the server negotiate which one to use?
a) that the fact that the decision was difficult meant that either choice had a close likelihood of turning out well. b) that the biggest mistakes I have made tended to lead to my biggest successes.