Pfizer and BioNTech launch trial of Omicron-targeted Covid vaccine(reuters.com)
reuters.com
Pfizer and BioNTech launch trial of Omicron-targeted Covid vaccine
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-biontech-launch-trial-omicron-targeted-covid-vaccine-2022-01-25/
180 comments
> Highly attenuated and extremely mild to non-existent symptoms.
Hospitals are getting overloaded due to Omicron. People are dying in droves. Omicron is by no means mild.
"Omicron may be milder compared to Delta, but it’s not mild. " Source: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affa...
Hospitals are getting overloaded due to Omicron. People are dying in droves. Omicron is by no means mild.
"Omicron may be milder compared to Delta, but it’s not mild. " Source: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affa...
A lot of the deaths occurring right now are still from patients that were infected by the Delta variant weeks ago.
Preliminary research indicates that Omicron has an 87% lower fatality rate. Of course that number is a little fuzzy because it's impossible to perform a real controlled experiment.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4010080
Preliminary research indicates that Omicron has an 87% lower fatality rate. Of course that number is a little fuzzy because it's impossible to perform a real controlled experiment.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4010080
> Preliminary research indicates that Omicron has an 87% lower fatality rate.
1. 87% less of a lot isn't a little. It can still be a lot.
2. "Fatality rate" isn't a number that just floats in the air by itself. It's a factor in the equation deaths = case_count * fatality_rate, and the case_count term has skyrocketed.
3. Deaths aren't the only thing to worry about. Hospitalizations that don't result in a fatality are nothing to sneeze at. Ditto for other kinds of bad outcomes. Where's the concern about COVID-caused myocarditis?
1. 87% less of a lot isn't a little. It can still be a lot.
2. "Fatality rate" isn't a number that just floats in the air by itself. It's a factor in the equation deaths = case_count * fatality_rate, and the case_count term has skyrocketed.
3. Deaths aren't the only thing to worry about. Hospitalizations that don't result in a fatality are nothing to sneeze at. Ditto for other kinds of bad outcomes. Where's the concern about COVID-caused myocarditis?
There’s no way of winning with those like you. You just like the drama of the pandemic too much and want it to stay forever. Even if it killed 1 person a year globally, those like you would probably argue that “even one life is infinitely precious and we should be on lockdown to save it”. Perhaps you feel this is your opportunity of a lifetime to be righteous. Honestly, I am so fed up with so many of you around that I have been hoping for a global nuclear Armageddon between Russia and the USA just to shut all of you up. Don’t forget to wear your mask when you look at the strange bright light in the sky.
> There’s no way of winning with those like you. You just like the drama of the pandemic too much and want it to stay forever....Honestly, I am so fed up with so many of you around that I have been hoping for a global nuclear Armageddon between Russia and the USA just to shut all of you up.
I'm sorry, but it seems you're complaining about a straw man that lives only in your head. Also, there are much easier and more effective ways to deal with things like that than wishing for a nuclear war.
Thanks for your comment, though. It felt nice to read it for reasons you almost certainly didn't intend.
I'm sorry, but it seems you're complaining about a straw man that lives only in your head. Also, there are much easier and more effective ways to deal with things like that than wishing for a nuclear war.
Thanks for your comment, though. It felt nice to read it for reasons you almost certainly didn't intend.
It is not a strawman if it speculates motivations, because people are rarely honest about their motivations, even to themselves.
> It is not a strawman if it speculates motivations, because people are rarely honest about their motivations, even to themselves.
In some contexts that may be true, but internet comments is not one of them.
The GP is just showing us the melodrama that's going on between some characters that live in his head. He was responding to them, not so much to me.
In some contexts that may be true, but internet comments is not one of them.
The GP is just showing us the melodrama that's going on between some characters that live in his head. He was responding to them, not so much to me.
> Omicron has an 87% lower fatality rate.
That is likely due to so many people being vaccinated or recovered.
If you dropped Omicron on the world population in the middle of 2019 I strongly doubt it would be any more mild.
> A lot of the deaths occurring right now are still from patients that were infected by the Delta variant weeks ago.
I guess natural immunity isn't as consistent as vaccination though (which produces exactly zero shock amongst the world's virologists and epidemiologists) and also suggests that Omicron isn't intrinsically mild at all.
That is likely due to so many people being vaccinated or recovered.
If you dropped Omicron on the world population in the middle of 2019 I strongly doubt it would be any more mild.
> A lot of the deaths occurring right now are still from patients that were infected by the Delta variant weeks ago.
I guess natural immunity isn't as consistent as vaccination though (which produces exactly zero shock amongst the world's virologists and epidemiologists) and also suggests that Omicron isn't intrinsically mild at all.
There is now strong evidence that Omicron is significantly milder than previous variants, independent of vaccination levels and natural immunity.
https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/
https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/
What needs to be done is a comparative study during an overlapping period of Delta and Omicron infection to rule all out all the confounding factors that happen when looking at waves in entirely separate time periods.
That got done recently for transmissibility recently with the Danish study (which finds no difference in intrinsic transmissibility between Omicron and Delta and that the advantage Omicron has is entirely immune escape):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v...
Then your unvaccinated group that you're comparing to in the Delta and Omicron waves are equally susceptible to disease and any cryptic spread and immunity may be present but will be equal.
The South Africa study cannot do this which means they're comparing different time points and they have many confounding factors. That is not strong evidence.
Plus best they get is that Omicron is about 1/4 of Delta which is 1/2 of D614G which is still terrible. That is still just SARS-CoV-2 levels and not the factor of 10 that would turn it into influenza.
That got done recently for transmissibility recently with the Danish study (which finds no difference in intrinsic transmissibility between Omicron and Delta and that the advantage Omicron has is entirely immune escape):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.27.21268278v...
Then your unvaccinated group that you're comparing to in the Delta and Omicron waves are equally susceptible to disease and any cryptic spread and immunity may be present but will be equal.
The South Africa study cannot do this which means they're comparing different time points and they have many confounding factors. That is not strong evidence.
Plus best they get is that Omicron is about 1/4 of Delta which is 1/2 of D614G which is still terrible. That is still just SARS-CoV-2 levels and not the factor of 10 that would turn it into influenza.
The data in the article makes a pretty compelling argument that Omicron is extremely mild.
I don't see what the supporting evidence for that conclusion is in the article.
It doesn't.
The refrain that Omicron is "mild" is being parroted by people who don't understand what they are talking about. In fact, the Omicron variant (like other COVID variants) is relatively mild among individuals who have been vaccinated.
That hasn't stopped the vast majority of folks yeeting themselves off a dunning-kruger cliff and assuming that they are competent to discuss the topic because they read a medical journal or an opinion piece that aligns well with their own perceptions of COVID and the broad spectrum of economic, political, and medical topics (myself included sometimes).
The refrain that Omicron is "mild" is being parroted by people who don't understand what they are talking about. In fact, the Omicron variant (like other COVID variants) is relatively mild among individuals who have been vaccinated.
That hasn't stopped the vast majority of folks yeeting themselves off a dunning-kruger cliff and assuming that they are competent to discuss the topic because they read a medical journal or an opinion piece that aligns well with their own perceptions of COVID and the broad spectrum of economic, political, and medical topics (myself included sometimes).
It’s mild relative to other variants for everyone. However, it is still quite dangerous for unvaccinated individuals… CFR is not that high but it is extremely contagious, so it is still killing a lot of unvaccinated people.
It was mild in South Africa as well, where there really is not a high vaccination rate.
> It was mild in South Africa as well, where there really is not a high vaccination rate.
That's not the only variable. IIRC, South Africa's population is on-average much younger, less obese, and much more likely to have had a previous infection compared to America's.
That's not the only variable. IIRC, South Africa's population is on-average much younger, less obese, and much more likely to have had a previous infection compared to America's.
All these factors would have applied to the other variants the same.
but a very high rate of previous infections
Your first two sentences are at odds. It is not mild for everyone if it's dangerous for people who have not been vaccinated.
Mild _relative to other variants_ for everyone. That doesn't mean mild in an absolute sense, and for unvaccinated people in particular it can be quite nasty, just not as nasty as previous variants.
I think my comment makes sense
They made their choice. It's time to move on.
I'd love to move on, but they're filling up the fucking hospitals.
I have 80 year old parents who need medical care and can't get it right now.
I have 80 year old parents who need medical care and can't get it right now.
I think Omicron is almost universally mild for those who have had the existing vaccines. And as most people have (here in the UK anyway), I can understand why people are seeing it as mild.
There is an ocean of difference between "it's mild because I am vaccinated" and "it's mild", and the bridge across it is being built on the mental and physical well being of our health care providers around the world.
I'd add that it's extremely disingenuous to hide the fact that high vaccination rates are the sole reason why the same disease spreading like wildfire is not leaving a trail of dead bodies stacked high on it's wake.
Even if it was as mild as flu, with its much higher rate of spread hospitals would probably still be seeing a big surge.
Where? In the UK hospitals are quiet for this time of year (less than 80% loaded which for the UK is quiet), and deaths are below the 5 year running average.
In the U.S. at least:
> There are two states and 618 counties that require circuit breakers (i.e. short-term mitigation measures needed to preserve hospital functioning) at this point because their hospitals are at or above 100% capacity (assuming that the number of staffed beds has not increased in the past week). Medical military personnel have already been dispatched to a number of hospitals across the nation. Nebraska also joined a short list of states that have enacted its Crisis Standards of Care plan. But community-wide efforts to reduce spread desperately need to be taken, too. Fourteen additional states are at high risk of exceeding 100% hospital capacity in the next 1-10 days.
Source: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affa...
> There are two states and 618 counties that require circuit breakers (i.e. short-term mitigation measures needed to preserve hospital functioning) at this point because their hospitals are at or above 100% capacity (assuming that the number of staffed beds has not increased in the past week). Medical military personnel have already been dispatched to a number of hospitals across the nation. Nebraska also joined a short list of states that have enacted its Crisis Standards of Care plan. But community-wide efforts to reduce spread desperately need to be taken, too. Fourteen additional states are at high risk of exceeding 100% hospital capacity in the next 1-10 days.
Source: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/state-of-affa...
Americans also have higher dates of obesity and diabetes though so it doesn't surprise me.
It’s mild. Everybody is getting it and that strains hospitals but it’s a mild illness and many infected people won’t even be tested let alone seek treatment.
How much evidence do you need of this being a mild variant?
How much evidence do you need of this being a mild variant?
> It’s mild. Everybody is getting it and that strains hospitals but it’s a mild illness and many infected people won’t even be tested let alone seek treatment.
It really is not. It's mild to double- and triple-vaccinated individuals living in highly vaccinated populations. They get the shot, they brush it aside
The poor souls who didn't managed to get vaccinated, or didn't wanted to, represent the bulk of the hospitalized population and deaths.
The key factor is that the world has spent the last year bulking on vaccines, precisely to allow any infection to be at most mild. And now that we're seeing highly vaccinated populations being exposed and developing mostly mild cases are we now supposed to pretend that vaccines don't exist and the disease suddenly got tame? In whose head does this even compute?
It really is not. It's mild to double- and triple-vaccinated individuals living in highly vaccinated populations. They get the shot, they brush it aside
The poor souls who didn't managed to get vaccinated, or didn't wanted to, represent the bulk of the hospitalized population and deaths.
The key factor is that the world has spent the last year bulking on vaccines, precisely to allow any infection to be at most mild. And now that we're seeing highly vaccinated populations being exposed and developing mostly mild cases are we now supposed to pretend that vaccines don't exist and the disease suddenly got tame? In whose head does this even compute?
> The poor souls who didn't managed to get vaccinated, or didn't wanted to, represent the bulk of the hospitalized population and deaths.
This is only part of the picture - it's actually the people that are unvaccinated and are very old or have comorbidities that represent the majority of deaths.
But we also shouldn't exclude that a large majority of people are dying with Covid-19 at the moment rather than because of Covid (i.e. as c20% of deaths at the moment are within a month of a positive covid test, and c5% of the population likely had Covid in the last month, we can imply that 5% of deaths would have Covid anyway if it had no impact on morbidity, so about 25% (at least) of those Covid deaths are people dying with covid. This is likely an underestimate considering Covid is probably spreading in hospitals).
This is only part of the picture - it's actually the people that are unvaccinated and are very old or have comorbidities that represent the majority of deaths.
But we also shouldn't exclude that a large majority of people are dying with Covid-19 at the moment rather than because of Covid (i.e. as c20% of deaths at the moment are within a month of a positive covid test, and c5% of the population likely had Covid in the last month, we can imply that 5% of deaths would have Covid anyway if it had no impact on morbidity, so about 25% (at least) of those Covid deaths are people dying with covid. This is likely an underestimate considering Covid is probably spreading in hospitals).
I believe you truly have bought the full narrative. I’m boosted I’m not anti vax but I’ll give you one data point that contradicts your claim:
South Africa vax rate is 52%. Their health officials have declared it to be mild.
It’s mild.
South Africa vax rate is 52%. Their health officials have declared it to be mild.
It’s mild.
Please make your substantive points without personal swipes.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
It would appear that a country that is over 90% vaccinated and 60% boosted is having ~440 deaths a day with roughly 15k admitted to the hospital (ignoring simple ER visits) that week. It's worth noting that the 10% unvaccinated (even though skewed younger) are ~5x overrepresented at ~50% of the hospitalizations. It's about half as high as the peak last Jan although ventilators are less in use and treatments are better.
From your dashboard: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
From your dashboard: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Pre covid, the UK typically had 1400 deaths a day in the winter. It's a little higher at the moment, but nowhere near 400.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
Be careful about who is in covid because of non-covid reasons that just happen to have covid, compared with those who are in hospital because of covid.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
Be careful about who is in covid because of non-covid reasons that just happen to have covid, compared with those who are in hospital because of covid.
Did you look at that plot on page 2?
Choosing what certainly looks like a single dramatic outlier point which is 2 weeks older than the dashboard certainly seems like cherry picking.
Just look at the current dashboard data it shows ~440 deaths per day for the last 2 weeks. Again:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Also note that there almost aren't deaths from other flus over the last 2 years, likely because they don't have an R value >1 due to masking etc.
Look, I'm all for getting back to normal and letting the unvaccinated (and old, poor, sick) die off as god intended, but let's not pretend it's all due to a lack of joyful evenings in the pub.
Choosing what certainly looks like a single dramatic outlier point which is 2 weeks older than the dashboard certainly seems like cherry picking.
Just look at the current dashboard data it shows ~440 deaths per day for the last 2 weeks. Again:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Also note that there almost aren't deaths from other flus over the last 2 years, likely because they don't have an R value >1 due to masking etc.
Look, I'm all for getting back to normal and letting the unvaccinated (and old, poor, sick) die off as god intended, but let's not pretend it's all due to a lack of joyful evenings in the pub.
Actually, now I'm intrigued. It would appear that the total annual death rate in the UK is about 135k/yr or 370/day. So the last couple of weeks of the current Omicron wave exceeds the typical average death rate from all causes from 2010-2018 (scaled for population).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan...
Close, you're only off by ~465,000
Up to 70% of the "COVID patients" in UK hospitals at the moment are there for other reasons:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/20/call-scrap-daily...
"Call to phase out statistics comes as it emerges that up to 70pc of virus patients in hospital being primarily treated for other problems"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/20/call-scrap-daily...
"Call to phase out statistics comes as it emerges that up to 70pc of virus patients in hospital being primarily treated for other problems"
In the UK our healthcare system is overloaded though because of 2 years of lockdown policy postponing any elective surgeries.
You are right on your figures though - when you look at excess deaths over 5 years there has been much fewer deaths because of Covid than the official figures would have you believe, but the impact of lockdown will be felt for many years to come.
You are right on your figures though - when you look at excess deaths over 5 years there has been much fewer deaths because of Covid than the official figures would have you believe, but the impact of lockdown will be felt for many years to come.
It is both overloaded and not working at full capacity simultaneously, due to chaotic and foolish rules.
[deleted]
True, and thank goodness, but also because hospitals kicked out everyone they could ahead of the wave.
In a “normal” winter there would be more regular patients in the hospitals.
In a “normal” winter there would be more regular patients in the hospitals.
Do you have a link to UK hospitalisation figures?
UK has somewhat decent (50%) booster uptake
64.3% currently. 83.9% have had 2 doses.
> Seems to me that Omicron is essentially a vaccine in its own right. Highly attenuated and extremely mild to non-existent symptoms.
> The best part is even the anti-vax crowd will be innoculated!
I don't think it's anything close to "highly attenuated":
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/25/world/omicron-covid-...
> The C.D.C. attributed the tendency of Omicron cases to cause less severe illness to the virus itself, as well as growing levels of immunity from prior infections and from the rollout of vaccinations. It said that roughly 30 million more people were fully vaccinated during the Omicron surge than during the Delta wave in the fall.
> As a result, a smaller proportion of coronavirus cases are ending in hospitalizations: The C.D.C. said there had been a peak of 27 hospital admissions for every 1,000 cases in January, compared with 78 admissions per 1,000 cases in the fall.
If it were "highly attenuated," I'd expect close to 0 hospital admissions for every 1,000 cases, not 27.
Exaggerating "less severe" to "near harmless" is one of those errors anti-vax people and other denialists commonly make in their arguments.
> The best part is even the anti-vax crowd will be innoculated!
I don't think it's anything close to "highly attenuated":
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/25/world/omicron-covid-...
> The C.D.C. attributed the tendency of Omicron cases to cause less severe illness to the virus itself, as well as growing levels of immunity from prior infections and from the rollout of vaccinations. It said that roughly 30 million more people were fully vaccinated during the Omicron surge than during the Delta wave in the fall.
> As a result, a smaller proportion of coronavirus cases are ending in hospitalizations: The C.D.C. said there had been a peak of 27 hospital admissions for every 1,000 cases in January, compared with 78 admissions per 1,000 cases in the fall.
If it were "highly attenuated," I'd expect close to 0 hospital admissions for every 1,000 cases, not 27.
Exaggerating "less severe" to "near harmless" is one of those errors anti-vax people and other denialists commonly make in their arguments.
> Seems to me that Omicron is essentially a vaccine in its own right. Highly attenuated and extremely mild to non-existent symptoms.
No, not really. Fully vaccinated individuals in highly vaccinated populations who contract covid tend to experience mild to non-existent symptoms.
Omicron is not a vaccine. The vaccine is the vaccine.
https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies...
No, not really. Fully vaccinated individuals in highly vaccinated populations who contract covid tend to experience mild to non-existent symptoms.
Omicron is not a vaccine. The vaccine is the vaccine.
https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies...
The biggest logical fallacy I've noticed during the pandemic is people making definitive statements like yours while the science remains uncertain and changing.
I don't know how much weight to put on this news snippet from yesterday from a Dutch scientist saying they're seeing people that got infected with Omicron getting reinfected with new Omicron subvariant BA.2: https://nyheder.tv2.dk/2022-01-21-ny-omikron-variant-spreder...
I don't know how much weight to put on this news snippet from yesterday from a Dutch scientist saying they're seeing people that got infected with Omicron getting reinfected with new Omicron subvariant BA.2: https://nyheder.tv2.dk/2022-01-21-ny-omikron-variant-spreder...
I always ask myself when someone makes a definitive statement if they actually have a way of knowing that. That detector has been off the charts this whole pandemic. The usual suspects proclaimed Omicron was 'mild' whatever that actually means well before any data was available to show either way.
It's looking more and more like Omicron isn't mild. In particular it's producing worse infections in children. Not to mention it's immune escape means it's infecting vaccinated people. Mild infection in vaccinated people vs no infection in vaccinated people as you had with other variants.
It's looking more and more like Omicron isn't mild. In particular it's producing worse infections in children. Not to mention it's immune escape means it's infecting vaccinated people. Mild infection in vaccinated people vs no infection in vaccinated people as you had with other variants.
Just one country as an example: The US lost 15K people last week to Omicron. 150K people hospitalized, 25K in the ICU. That's nowhere close to "mild to non-existent" compared to a vaccine.
As a point of comparison too about 690k Americans die of heart disease a year, or a rate of about 13k deaths from heart disease a week.
Currently the 'mild' omicron strain of the virus is killing more people per week than the number one killer of Americans (heart disease).
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
Usurping the top spot for causes of death in a week is not mild by any means.
Currently the 'mild' omicron strain of the virus is killing more people per week than the number one killer of Americans (heart disease).
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
Usurping the top spot for causes of death in a week is not mild by any means.
Your numbers are way off. Many of the deaths last week weren't necessarily from Omicron. Some were patients infected by the Delta variant in previous weeks before Omicron became completely dominant.
Omicron has been like 90%+ of the cases reported for the last month in almost every jurisdiction. A month ago you might have been able to say that but today it's pretty clear that almost all the cases will have been Omicron.
Terminal patients don't die immediately, it usually takes several weeks. Omicron only crossed the 90% threshold of sequenced cases the week of 01/01/2022.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportion...
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportion...
Yes, and deaths have been steadily rising since then.
>The US lost 15K people last week to Omicron.
Not true. You're referring to all Covid deaths, not Omicron. We are still seeing the Delta strain lethality in the numbers.
Not true. You're referring to all Covid deaths, not Omicron. We are still seeing the Delta strain lethality in the numbers.
> The US lost 15K people last week to Omicron.
Bullshit. There is no data to suggest all of those deaths were from omicron, and no reason to believe that's the case either. Don't spread misinformation.
Bullshit. There is no data to suggest all of those deaths were from omicron, and no reason to believe that's the case either. Don't spread misinformation.
Take your argument up with the New York Times, their death tracker is showing that ~15k people have died from COVID in the last 7 days: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html Count up the daily counts yourself and check.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You have provided no evidence that 15k, as reported by one of the most reputable new organizations in the world, is wrong or should be considered misinformation.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You have provided no evidence that 15k, as reported by one of the most reputable new organizations in the world, is wrong or should be considered misinformation.
I'm not debating the Covid death number. You specifically called out omicron, while none of the actual data does so. There's no data (that I'm aware of) breaking out the US deaths by variant.
> and extremely mild to non-existent symptoms
For some, but hardly guaranteed. Still a lot of hospitalizations happening and the extreme treatments have to be rationed because we’re running out so fast.
The thing is: You don’t get to choose or predict if you’ll get the mild case or the severe case. You can’t ignore the serious cases and make your decisions on the assumption that you’ll be in the “no long term effects” group. The vaccine is a much more predictable and tested response. I’d much rather have the vaccine.
For some, but hardly guaranteed. Still a lot of hospitalizations happening and the extreme treatments have to be rationed because we’re running out so fast.
The thing is: You don’t get to choose or predict if you’ll get the mild case or the severe case. You can’t ignore the serious cases and make your decisions on the assumption that you’ll be in the “no long term effects” group. The vaccine is a much more predictable and tested response. I’d much rather have the vaccine.
I don’t think that is fully confirmed as so many people who are getting it are double or triple vaccinated already.
(I currently have Covid, probably Omicron, triple vaxed, and would describe it as a rotten cold)
(I currently have Covid, probably Omicron, triple vaxed, and would describe it as a rotten cold)
Wait, didn't people make this exact same argument about the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) that had a massive worldwide surge around this time a year ago?
What happened--why did we go on to have delta, omicron, etc. surges?
Or put more bluntly--why should anyone believe that *this time* omicron will be any different than the past variants which were touted as finally bringing herd immunity, but failed to do so?
Why is it that every surge seems to bring the exact same arguments and people saying "don't worry this one will stop the pandemic"? I've been reading it for two years and still haven't seen it happen anywhere in the world.
What happened--why did we go on to have delta, omicron, etc. surges?
Or put more bluntly--why should anyone believe that *this time* omicron will be any different than the past variants which were touted as finally bringing herd immunity, but failed to do so?
Why is it that every surge seems to bring the exact same arguments and people saying "don't worry this one will stop the pandemic"? I've been reading it for two years and still haven't seen it happen anywhere in the world.
I don’t buy Omicron will be the one ending this. There will be more variants. Midterm variant will be a very good one to watch out for. Our political class have figured it’s much easier to defer judgements or lack thereof to scientists and thus take no responsibility for failed policy measures or debates.
Natural immunity, what a concept!
Don't worry BA.2 is right around the corner and it's not clear if the BA.1 variant (Omicron) gives you immunity to BA.2. Lots of people infected with Delta, also caught Omicron.
So yeah, you're immune but possibly not for the next variant, and that variant may be more severe.
So yeah, you're immune but possibly not for the next variant, and that variant may be more severe.
Quick, be afraid!
I mean it is a global pandemic with millions of dead and new variants that may pose new challenges. Caution? What a surprising concept!
Depends on your definition of caution.
Throwing up your hands and saying "eh, endemic now, might as well open it all up" is definitely not caution.
As the alternative to the totalitarian measures we've lived through in the last two years, I'll take it every day of the week. The good news is, you can always lock yourself down if it's a concern to you. There's not really any need to go out of the house anymore if you want to set things up that way.
As opposed to artificial immunity?
Not sure immunity is what I'd call it but, artificial, yes.
Maybe “artificially evoked natural immunity”?
What?
By what mechanism do you think vaccines work. Magic?
Natural immunity is acquired from exposure to the disease organism through infection with the actual disease.
Vaccine-induced immunity is acquired through the introduction of a killed or weakened form of the disease organism through vaccination.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/immunity-types.htm
Vaccine-induced immunity is acquired through the introduction of a killed or weakened form of the disease organism through vaccination.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/immunity-types.htm
None of the COVID vaccines in use by the western world use an attenuated virus. The mRNA vaccines were specifically built and engineered to not have many of the pitfalls and issues of attenuated vaccines. The vaccines only contain a synthetic spike protein (or instructions how to make it) which is used to stimulate antibodies against it.
Are you advocating for calling vaccination "natural immunity"? That's a pretty big change in the messaging to date.
Not really.
Natural immunity is what anyone who gets vaccinated or infected acquires, assuming that the immune response is successful.
Immunity acquired from infection is more regularly referred to as convalescent or infection-induced immunity; moreover the messaging has consistently been that while there have been some studies that convalescent immunity can potentially be as or even more effective than vaccine induced immunity, it comes at a significant increase of complications, ranging from organ damage to the fairly nebulously defined long covid, and most of the studies that are credible in the field that have endorsed the effectiveness of convalescent immunity still recommend vaccination to avoid the potential impacts of even "mild" infections.
The rampant claims about so-called natural immunity by people may be drowning out correct or rational voices, but that shouldn't indicate that the messaging has changed, just that the messengers are spreading misinformation.
Natural immunity is what anyone who gets vaccinated or infected acquires, assuming that the immune response is successful.
Immunity acquired from infection is more regularly referred to as convalescent or infection-induced immunity; moreover the messaging has consistently been that while there have been some studies that convalescent immunity can potentially be as or even more effective than vaccine induced immunity, it comes at a significant increase of complications, ranging from organ damage to the fairly nebulously defined long covid, and most of the studies that are credible in the field that have endorsed the effectiveness of convalescent immunity still recommend vaccination to avoid the potential impacts of even "mild" infections.
The rampant claims about so-called natural immunity by people may be drowning out correct or rational voices, but that shouldn't indicate that the messaging has changed, just that the messengers are spreading misinformation.
It is a big change in the messaging, as the director of the CDC as well as fauci use "natural immunity" to refer to immunity acquired through natural infection. I can provide numerous examples of this.
Whole immunity versus GMO immunity?
Once the lethality data started to accumulate, I had the same thought. Even though it's still definitely not something you want to get, especially if you have comorbidities.
It's insane to think about, but as our biological engineering skills mature, it's worth having a discussion about whether (1) mass vaccination + (2) release of highly-contagious, low-lethality strain should be in the pandemic playbook.
There are no sure things in biology, but a hypothetical reality where Delta (or god forbid something like MERS-CoV) is circulating with Omicron-rates of transmissibility... start to beg questions about what the least bad approach is.
It's insane to think about, but as our biological engineering skills mature, it's worth having a discussion about whether (1) mass vaccination + (2) release of highly-contagious, low-lethality strain should be in the pandemic playbook.
There are no sure things in biology, but a hypothetical reality where Delta (or god forbid something like MERS-CoV) is circulating with Omicron-rates of transmissibility... start to beg questions about what the least bad approach is.
> (2) release of highly-contagious, low-lethality strain should be in the pandemic playbook.
political and ethical suicide
political and ethical suicide
> release of highly contagious
Yet when China does it (accidentally or not) it’s considered unthinkable for our political class. If you think people in Washington couldn’t be less worried about their electorates. If anything COVID has been a boon to hide their massive incompetence diverting discussions around mandates, vaccinations and other woke virtue signaling.
Yet when China does it (accidentally or not) it’s considered unthinkable for our political class. If you think people in Washington couldn’t be less worried about their electorates. If anything COVID has been a boon to hide their massive incompetence diverting discussions around mandates, vaccinations and other woke virtue signaling.
Political suicide, certainly.
Ethically — assuming such engineering is even possible without unexpected consequences — it sounds like a trolley problem, only instead of 6 on the default track and 1 on the alternate it might be 6 million by default and 1 million with the airborne cowpox analogy. (Numbers completely made up, of course).
Ethically — assuming such engineering is even possible without unexpected consequences — it sounds like a trolley problem, only instead of 6 on the default track and 1 on the alternate it might be 6 million by default and 1 million with the airborne cowpox analogy. (Numbers completely made up, of course).
performing a medical experiment/procedure on someone against their will is unethical.
Experiment? Certainly.
Procedure? When not doing the procedure will (to continue using my totally made up hypothetical numbers) cost 5 million more lives? That’s much less clear to me.
(Reality is more likely to be “we reckon it might save 5 million lives net, but then again it might combine with the original to make something both virulent and highly transmissive”, but the joy of hypotheticals is I can ignore that).
Procedure? When not doing the procedure will (to continue using my totally made up hypothetical numbers) cost 5 million more lives? That’s much less clear to me.
(Reality is more likely to be “we reckon it might save 5 million lives net, but then again it might combine with the original to make something both virulent and highly transmissive”, but the joy of hypotheticals is I can ignore that).
My point was that the spillover of a significantly more lethal but highly transmissible virus is unlikely, but becoming more likely with each tick of population growth.
SARS-CoV-2, as terrible as it was, wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been: a better-adapted, more transmissible, and more lethal first wave.
And if that scenario were playing out, a human-engineered firebreak, even at the cost of many lives, isn't an obvious ethical wrong. Difficult decisions.
SARS-CoV-2, as terrible as it was, wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been: a better-adapted, more transmissible, and more lethal first wave.
And if that scenario were playing out, a human-engineered firebreak, even at the cost of many lives, isn't an obvious ethical wrong. Difficult decisions.
>release of highly-contagious, low-lethality strain should be in the pandemic playbook.
We could even blame it on wet markets ;)
We could even blame it on wet markets ;)
There are theories floating around that omicron is actually what you're describing. The number and types of mutations it has versus other variants definitely stands out.
Of course, nobody would ever admit it if that's true. So it's just a curious thing to think about.
Of course, nobody would ever admit it if that's true. So it's just a curious thing to think about.
Ourgon(1)
Who is in the control group now? You can't exactly exclude people who have prior contact with older variants or that would mislead populations with high prior exposure. Also how do they factor in prior vaccination? Are they going to have high powered arms for all these different subtypes of immune response?
If you read the article, that is addressed there.
I'm sorry I don't see it. I only see mention of dividing groups by unvaccinated/vaccinated. That doesn't give indication to prior exposure at all.
Whether this pans out into an approved vaccine or not, I'm terribly curious about the results of the study comparing Omicron booster versus existing booster.
Apparently the existing booster shot elicited a more diverse set of antibodies compared to the ones from just a two shot regimen. Which is kinda interesting. I forget what it's called, but there's this phenomenon in immunology where the immune system can get "stuck" with whatever initial antibodies it comes up with and doesn't adapt well. Seems that wasn't the case with the COVID boosters, thankfully. And that explains why the boosters have been so dramatically more effective against Omicron (80% versus <40% for those with just two shots, natural immunity, etc; IIRC).
But would an Omicron booster have elicited an even "better" set of antibodies? Would we get back to 90% protection like the good ole days?
And of course the big question; is an Omicron booster going to provide better forward protection?
The results of this study are going to be deliciously intriguing.
Apparently the existing booster shot elicited a more diverse set of antibodies compared to the ones from just a two shot regimen. Which is kinda interesting. I forget what it's called, but there's this phenomenon in immunology where the immune system can get "stuck" with whatever initial antibodies it comes up with and doesn't adapt well. Seems that wasn't the case with the COVID boosters, thankfully. And that explains why the boosters have been so dramatically more effective against Omicron (80% versus <40% for those with just two shots, natural immunity, etc; IIRC).
But would an Omicron booster have elicited an even "better" set of antibodies? Would we get back to 90% protection like the good ole days?
And of course the big question; is an Omicron booster going to provide better forward protection?
The results of this study are going to be deliciously intriguing.
I feel like we are going to have to get a yearly booster and they will be guessing the strains every year just like the flu.
Note: 100% a gut feeling
Note: 100% a gut feeling
That was pretty obvious since March 2020. Highly contagious respiratory viruses with non-human reservoirs don't go back into the bottle, once they're circulating.
No, but flu is the only one that evolves so quickly that we need a new shot every year.
Coronaviruses give people colds too, they just weren't as widespread or symptomatic as influenza. Now, they probably will be.
Jan 23rd, https://www.rt.com/news/546859-pfizer-ceo-future-vaccines/
> In a series of interviews with Israeli TV channels, Albert Bourla said it would “not be a good scenario” if people were to get boosters every four to five months. “What I'm hoping [is] that we will have a vaccine that you will have to do once a year,” ... Bourla argued that it is both easier to sell the idea and “easier for people to remember” if a vaccine is required only once per year, calling it “an ideal situation” from “a public health perspective.”
> In a series of interviews with Israeli TV channels, Albert Bourla said it would “not be a good scenario” if people were to get boosters every four to five months. “What I'm hoping [is] that we will have a vaccine that you will have to do once a year,” ... Bourla argued that it is both easier to sell the idea and “easier for people to remember” if a vaccine is required only once per year, calling it “an ideal situation” from “a public health perspective.”
There's some distant hope for a "super" vaccine against the entire coronavirus (sub)family: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/pan-coronavir...
Imagine if the development work for covid vaccines ends up with more effective vaccines against things like flu and even the common cold
I'm hoping for some serious advances in masks. And the social acceptability of walking around looking like Bane.
> I forget what it's called, but there's this phenomenon in immunology where the immune system can get "stuck" with whatever initial antibodies it comes up with and doesn't adapt well.
It's called original antigenic sin[0]. It's one of the reasons that mass vaccination against a variant that is no longer circulating may not be the wisest strategy. But anyone who dares mention it is shouted down as anti-vaxx.
[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
It's called original antigenic sin[0]. It's one of the reasons that mass vaccination against a variant that is no longer circulating may not be the wisest strategy. But anyone who dares mention it is shouted down as anti-vaxx.
[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
I guess that’s a theoretical possibility for a different virus, but in truth the mRNA vaccines provide robust protection from serious illness from omicron: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccination
It is a possibility for any virus
Well it’s empirically not the case for Omicron, as the vaccines have continued to provide robust protection against hospitalization and death
Neither the post you replied to or I said it applied to omicron. in fact, the parent said that it didn't. The fact that it didnt apply to omnicron, does not mean that it couldn't apply to covid, which is the claim you made.
So it’s about a theoretical future variant?
The point was that it could have happened with Covid-19, and could still happen with Covid-19.
Probably not very likely, but to say Covid-19 is somehow outside the scope of original antigenic sin theory is silly.
Probably not very likely, but to say Covid-19 is somehow outside the scope of original antigenic sin theory is silly.
Ok, not sure what point you’re trying to make then. The vaccines worked very well against delta and omicron variants and had we halted vaccinations once variants began to take hold it would have cost millions of lives. There are many thousands of known variants of Covid-19
My only point was to provide correction to your erroneous statement.
>I guess that’s a theoretical possibility for a different virus
Im not trying to claim it applied to omicron, current vaccine efficacy, that we should halt vaccinations, or any other strawman you are trying to put up.
You can simply acknowledge the correction
>I guess that’s a theoretical possibility for a different virus
Im not trying to claim it applied to omicron, current vaccine efficacy, that we should halt vaccinations, or any other strawman you are trying to put up.
You can simply acknowledge the correction
> the immune system can get "stuck" with whatever initial antibodies it comes up with and doesn't adapt well
Original antigenic sin. However I don't think it predicts that the alpha-based boosters we have will be any more effective, and I don't think that we are observing particularly impressive effectiveness either.
Original antigenic sin. However I don't think it predicts that the alpha-based boosters we have will be any more effective, and I don't think that we are observing particularly impressive effectiveness either.
Will there be confirmed better oversight than with Pfizer's 12-15 year old clinical trial, re: Maddie De Garay's story?
https://youtu.be/L2GKPYzL_JQ - "How many more adverse effects have been covered up during the trials? - Maddie de Garay's story."
https://youtu.be/L2GKPYzL_JQ - "How many more adverse effects have been covered up during the trials? - Maddie de Garay's story."
FYI this guy is extremely anti-vax and what he was saying was roundly condemned. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/07/liber...
And what are your thoughts, not fed to you by a mainstream narrative, on the contents of what Maddie De Garay shared about her and her daughter's experience in the Pfizer trial - or is ~10 minutes plus the time to think and write about it too much effort for you to dedicate to such an important issue such as integrity?
The Maddie de Garay story is tragic and history will not look kindly on the unnecessary censorship of an injured child in Pfizer's original clinical trial. They could have used that incident as an opportunity to demonstrate the protocols for investigation and prevent of similar injuries.
It's promising that there will be slightly higher regulatory standards for the Omicron vaccine: clinical trial in humans must be completed before approval and clinical trial data must be submitted at the same time, i.e. no 75-year delays.
> the debate appears to have shifted with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) saying on Friday that international regulators now preferred clinical studies to be carried out before approval of a new vaccine ... Inclusion of clinical trial data in the regulatory filings may have an impact on the delivery of initial batches.
It's promising that there will be slightly higher regulatory standards for the Omicron vaccine: clinical trial in humans must be completed before approval and clinical trial data must be submitted at the same time, i.e. no 75-year delays.
> the debate appears to have shifted with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) saying on Friday that international regulators now preferred clinical studies to be carried out before approval of a new vaccine ... Inclusion of clinical trial data in the regulatory filings may have an impact on the delivery of initial batches.
Don't you think everyone in society would be shocked to also know that, aside from suppressing her severe adverse reactions, they only tracked participants for 7 days - along with other blatantly obvious problems with the vaccine trial designs?
Yes, we need more transparency on all the trials, e.g. comparing methodology and benchmarking against standard practices. Justifications for corner cutting in 2020 trials should not apply to 2022+ trials. If this issue were more widely understood, there would be several open-source repos aggregating "lessons learned" and public info about the trials, across countries and vendors.
It's interesting that you're minimizing the gross lack of integrity as simply corner cutting - there isn't a single valid reason for that. Anything counter-mainstream narrative is suppressed, so that is part of the problem to your "if this issue were more widely understood" - the scientific process, conversation, has been highly suppressed over these last 2 years.
A major British medical journal just demanded that the raw trial data be released - but will it even be untampered with - like the Maddie De Garay situation insinuates happens widespread since there were no, and still no, government health agencies who have sounded an alarm - or caught it and put a hold on the vaccine release for different age groups until uncompromised trials were completed?
The system capture here is so obvious it's blinding.
A major British medical journal just demanded that the raw trial data be released - but will it even be untampered with - like the Maddie De Garay situation insinuates happens widespread since there were no, and still no, government health agencies who have sounded an alarm - or caught it and put a hold on the vaccine release for different age groups until uncompromised trials were completed?
The system capture here is so obvious it's blinding.
Step 1 is to remove plausible deniability, e.g. urgency being used to bypass existing controls, and restore some systemic control. Ultimately we will need new systems to prevent this from happening again, at many levels of governance.
There are many nested challenges, e.g. system/regulatory capture is not new, but can you think of a single historical example with pervasive lockstep censorship across media, industry and government in multiple countries? Did government relief/stimulus funding distort incentives for health outcomes, e.g. ineffective high-fee ventilators vs. early treatment with existing drugs?
Even in the face of lockstep censorship, as truth/facts surfaced in 2020-2021, why did no organized presentation achieve widespread public visibility? Without an accurate threat model (e.g. infiltration of health freedom groups, https://ccsfreedom.org/), truth will not be sufficient to prevail against organized opposition.
There are many nested challenges, e.g. system/regulatory capture is not new, but can you think of a single historical example with pervasive lockstep censorship across media, industry and government in multiple countries? Did government relief/stimulus funding distort incentives for health outcomes, e.g. ineffective high-fee ventilators vs. early treatment with existing drugs?
Even in the face of lockstep censorship, as truth/facts surfaced in 2020-2021, why did no organized presentation achieve widespread public visibility? Without an accurate threat model (e.g. infiltration of health freedom groups, https://ccsfreedom.org/), truth will not be sufficient to prevail against organized opposition.
No Studies found for: covid-19 | pfizer BioNTech | Start date on or after 01/01/2022
Maybe it is part of an existing study?
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=covid-19&spons=p...
Maybe it is part of an existing study?
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=covid-19&spons=p...
Omicron is not mild to the unvaccinated.. and as a result, to the hospital infrastructure.
50% of people recently hospitalized in King county, Washington, (where Seattle is located) are vaccinated: https://kingcounty.gov/depts/health/covid-19/data/vaccinatio...
It appears for some vaccinated people Omicron is not mild either.
It appears for some vaccinated people Omicron is not mild either.
Keep in mind that 69% of the population in Washington is vaccinated. This will skew the proportion of hospitalized towards the vaccinated. Vaccination seems to be about 70% effective at preventing serious disease requiring hospitalization. So yeah, not mild in vaccinated people either, just less horrifyingly bad.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2119270
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2119270
It’s not quite that simple, because the proportion of the population who are vaccinated isn’t representative of the whole.
Reuters crashes if the browser has a cookie blocker active - its js expects a certain cookie to be there.
Seems like a day late and a dollar short on this effort.
It's not about Omicron today, it's about Omicron's descendants.
Before Omicron, two doses provided >90% protection, and held up well against Delta. Now, two doses provides only 40% protection against Omicron. Whereas three doses bumps that back up to 80%.
Given these trends it's clear that we need a plan forward, just in case, for whatever comes on the menu next year. It's likely to be an Omicron descendant, since Omicron is dominating the gene pool. It's a reasonable assumption that an Omicron derived vaccine would have provided >90% protection against Omicron. And so, reasonably, being Omicron-boosted in the future should provide something like 80% protection against whatever the next dominate strain will be, whereas the existing boosters might not fare as well.
That's the hope anyway.
Before Omicron, two doses provided >90% protection, and held up well against Delta. Now, two doses provides only 40% protection against Omicron. Whereas three doses bumps that back up to 80%.
Given these trends it's clear that we need a plan forward, just in case, for whatever comes on the menu next year. It's likely to be an Omicron descendant, since Omicron is dominating the gene pool. It's a reasonable assumption that an Omicron derived vaccine would have provided >90% protection against Omicron. And so, reasonably, being Omicron-boosted in the future should provide something like 80% protection against whatever the next dominate strain will be, whereas the existing boosters might not fare as well.
That's the hope anyway.
Omnicron is so mild for the VAST majority of people that frankly the best thing that can happen is for it to just spread and we all get to heard immunity that much faster.
Thankfully it's so much more virulent that this is going to happen whether we like it or not. Makes me think of the old chicken pox parties when I was a kid.
The virus is carried by animals and it's not going away. So we had better start figuring out how to more reasonably live with it, stop with the asinine one size fits all solutions; many of them (like cloth masks) that are actually anti-science based and stop destroying so many people's lives - especially children - I can't imagine being a child in todays idiotic overreactive and politically energized environments, especially since children had the least to fear even from the original, pretty nasty virus. Yes, there are even kids that are more at risk - but you don't screw everyone - you protect the vulnerable. Common sense seems to be utterly out the window as everyone is running around panicking; it's beyond nuts.
Thankfully it's so much more virulent that this is going to happen whether we like it or not. Makes me think of the old chicken pox parties when I was a kid.
The virus is carried by animals and it's not going away. So we had better start figuring out how to more reasonably live with it, stop with the asinine one size fits all solutions; many of them (like cloth masks) that are actually anti-science based and stop destroying so many people's lives - especially children - I can't imagine being a child in todays idiotic overreactive and politically energized environments, especially since children had the least to fear even from the original, pretty nasty virus. Yes, there are even kids that are more at risk - but you don't screw everyone - you protect the vulnerable. Common sense seems to be utterly out the window as everyone is running around panicking; it's beyond nuts.
Emergency rooms and ICUs are barely keeping up right now. Full infection of the country will be devastating. ER and ICU staffing is already way short of what we need. Supplies are low. An omicron vaccine will help stave this off for now. In addition, the smaller the pool of infected individuals, the slower the mutation rate will be.
Emergency rooms are overloaded only because most states have ignored treatments that are effective at not only keeping people out of the hospital but resolving symptoms within a week, readily available, not costly (aha!) and very safe, long used drugs that are well understood.
A self inflicted wound is hardly a reason for continued panic.
Now that the brain dead vaccine mandates are being shot down staffing should also start to resolve itself. Again, the VAST majority of issues with COVID are self inflicted - driven by politics and severely misguided social pressure.
A self inflicted wound is hardly a reason for continued panic.
Now that the brain dead vaccine mandates are being shot down staffing should also start to resolve itself. Again, the VAST majority of issues with COVID are self inflicted - driven by politics and severely misguided social pressure.
As a Pfizer triple vaccinated person I would prefer getting Omicron to its descendant that is even farther away from what I'm protected from. The immune system is capable of reacting to series of smaller mutations much better than a big one. This is one of the main ways of developing a series of vaccines that lead to HIV immunity right now.
If you're going to state vaccine effectiveness percentages then you need to define the endpoint. Stating that it provides 40% protection against Omicron is meaningless. Is that against PCR confirmed infection, symptomatic infection, hospitalization, death, or something else? And over what time period?
The reality is that two doses of the existing mRNA vaccines still provide very good protection against severe disease for the vast majority of patients.
https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/
The reality is that two doses of the existing mRNA vaccines still provide very good protection against severe disease for the vast majority of patients.
https://peterattiamd.com/covid-part2/
Omicron BA.2 is already here [1]. In Denmark, it's already >50% of the cases.
[1] https://deadline.com/2022/01/omicron-offshoot-ba2-in-us-1234...
[1] https://deadline.com/2022/01/omicron-offshoot-ba2-in-us-1234...
Um, Omicron was discovered 2 months ago.
0xDEEPFAC(1)
jbirer(2)
The best part is even the anti-vax crowd will be innoculated!