Saudi to consider accepting Yuan for oil sales(seekingalpha.com)
seekingalpha.com
Saudi to consider accepting Yuan for oil sales
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3813662-saudi-to-consider-accepting-yuan-for-oil-sales-as-pivot-towards-china-continues
21 comments
What are your thoughts on Ray Dalio's thesis around changing world orders?
https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8
https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8
I think it's very interesting and it's been awhile since I've watched this. If I had to summarize, I think he's correct about overarching principles, but I think the examples and country comparisons are a little underwhelming. I'd also add that what he's describing about American debt is more of a general fiat currency problem and less of an America problem.
I don't think many American's understand how problematic it will be if we lose the dollar oil market.
The rest of the world has to produce and export things of value to create wealth. The US for the most part gave up exporting things of value over the last 30 years. Instead we export dollars and treasuries and essentially play the world's banker.
For example, we can kind of sort of temporarily get away with MMT but that's only because we have the reserve currency and the global system can take up a lot of dollar supply. Try running those same policies with failing treasury auctions and you will have people rioting in the streets as we get a taste of real inflation.
The rest of the world has to produce and export things of value to create wealth. The US for the most part gave up exporting things of value over the last 30 years. Instead we export dollars and treasuries and essentially play the world's banker.
For example, we can kind of sort of temporarily get away with MMT but that's only because we have the reserve currency and the global system can take up a lot of dollar supply. Try running those same policies with failing treasury auctions and you will have people rioting in the streets as we get a taste of real inflation.
> The US for the most part gave up exporting things of value over the last 30 years.
Nonsense. In inflation adjusted dollars, the US exported twice as much in 2021 as from 1991.
Edit: And the numbers look far better in 2019 vs 1989.
Nonsense. In inflation adjusted dollars, the US exported twice as much in 2021 as from 1991.
Edit: And the numbers look far better in 2019 vs 1989.
And remind me of how our current account has trended in that same period.
In 91 it was just a bit positive. It has fallen off of a cliff since then. We are drastically more dependent on the ability to import cheap goods in a way that is not even close to being offset by imports than we were in 91.
So im sticking eith absolurely not nonsense
In 91 it was just a bit positive. It has fallen off of a cliff since then. We are drastically more dependent on the ability to import cheap goods in a way that is not even close to being offset by imports than we were in 91.
So im sticking eith absolurely not nonsense
is that adjusted for inflation?
$1 in 1991 is almost exactly $2 in 2021
$1 in 1991 is almost exactly $2 in 2021
> is that adjusted for inflation?
Yes. As I said "In inflation adjusted dollars".
Yes. As I said "In inflation adjusted dollars".
Ha, I read it twice and still missed that, thanks.
It happens. I've done the same thing to people on here. And in real life too.
We understand, alright. My hope, though I'm not optimistic, is that this serves as a shot across the bow and we start the long and hard process of getting our financial house in order.
But yes, you are correct. If we don't get off this MMT crazy train before the dollar loses its unique status in the world economy, we're f**d
But yes, you are correct. If we don't get off this MMT crazy train before the dollar loses its unique status in the world economy, we're f**d
Given that there are rumors of widespread yuan counterfeiting, and a very political central bank, I don't know who would want to be yuan heavy.
Article curiously avoids discussion of petrodollar recycling.
Perhaps the author felt they weren't qualified to comment on the subject.
Perhaps the author felt they weren't qualified to comment on the subject.
would you mind commenting on the subject? I never heard of petrodollar recycling.
A bit late to respond, but I would start with the wikipedia article which is short but gives a decent overview.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling
The petrodollar warfare section is worthy of note.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling
The petrodollar warfare section is worthy of note.
Petrodollars obtained by exporters is used to buy US based assets and/or financial instruments (treasury bonds, stocks, real estate), literally “recycling” all that extra capital... though the Saudis have been dumping a lot of their assets for a few years already, as they plan on diversifying their economy but I guess that’s tangential
First, a reserve currency is just a currency that is held on reserve by central banks for liquidity, trading, and stability. The U.S. dollar is the dominant reserve currency but is just one of many. Central banks hold the dollar, but also the Yen, Euro, Pound, and other currencies.
Second, this is Saudi Arabia obtaining Yuan for Chinese purchases of oil, which it will then turn around and trade for dollars or whatever they feel like doing. But the strength of the dollar isn’t just the Petrodollar, it’s the US military and rule of law. It is faith in the American government. In China, the CCP absolutely does not give the slightest shit about your property rights, your ability to list your company on a stock exchange, or whatever other asinine things it drums up as being important to the Party. This alone without a doubt defeats any serious attempt of the Yuan to become on par with the Euro or Dollar. If China actually operates more like a democracy with human rights, property rights, and rule of law it could definitely rival $, €, £, and ¥. But until then that won’t happen. The Chinese people should be pissed at the parasitic CCP holding them back. But I digress.
Finally, the USD will not lose reserve currency status (again, as a currency held by central banks) because the U.S. economy is gigantic and intrinsically valuable. Even if all oil sales were denominated in Yuan or whatever, the USD would still be extremely powerful and held in reserve by central banks. In fact, it’s likely that the U.S. would stop experiencing trade deficits if it lost defacto domination of world market exchanges.
While I think Americans need to get used to a multi-polar economic world, these articles just create FUD where there is none. A much bigger problem is self-inflicted damage due to partisan politics versus an aging China.