Satellites give clues about the coming global harvest(bbc.com)
bbc.com
Satellites give clues about the coming global harvest
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-62149522
130 comments
My dad explained to me that in the 1960s and 1970s, USDA assessors would just drive down the road and look at a field and scribble a random number into their notebook. The data might not be very accurate. The reason he said they never cared to write an accurate number is that after they gave the numbers to the USDA, the USDA would just write the number they wanted to hear down instead. It had something to do with keeping the price they needed to keep exports flowing. For farmers of course, it hits them right in the pocket book because it prevents the prices reaching where they should be. On the other hand, subsidies help alleviate that a bit.
I'm not sure if this is true still today. But, I doubt they're counting every successful crop correctly. And, there's a lot that can happen before they are actually harvested; floods, insects, blight, drought, etc. For example, there'd be a huge drought and the USDA would announce a bumper crop and he'd laugh. And, that was recent.
Either way, past data is probably pretty suspect. And, today's data might have the same problem. Which means if you're basing prediction models on this you might expect to be disappointed when things don't pan out. This is especially dangerous if we enter an era where food becomes more scarce. It is an accounting issue if you think about it.
I'm not sure if this is true still today. But, I doubt they're counting every successful crop correctly. And, there's a lot that can happen before they are actually harvested; floods, insects, blight, drought, etc. For example, there'd be a huge drought and the USDA would announce a bumper crop and he'd laugh. And, that was recent.
Either way, past data is probably pretty suspect. And, today's data might have the same problem. Which means if you're basing prediction models on this you might expect to be disappointed when things don't pan out. This is especially dangerous if we enter an era where food becomes more scarce. It is an accounting issue if you think about it.
USDA crop predictions in the 1960s seemed to be less than 10% off 4 months in advance and less than 5% off two months in advance.
It possible that the made up numbers were discarded because they were bad predictors because they were made up.
It possible that the made up numbers were discarded because they were bad predictors because they were made up.
I know USGS does IR (and other spectra) analysis, and the data correlate at the state-level with expected production. That imagery has been around for decades.
Are there any periodic reports like this that tie together crop production and fertiliser use?
Definitely some interesting info. Has this been produced for previous years? I'm intrigued how the sentiment in the weather highlights might have changed over time.
> Definitely some interesting info. Has this been produced for previous years? I'm intrigued how the sentiment in the weather highlights might have changed over time.
I would imagine so. Something like this was a key part of the plot to the 80s comedy movie Trading Places.
I would imagine so. Something like this was a key part of the plot to the 80s comedy movie Trading Places.
+1 for Eddie Murphy explaining the futures market :-)
and also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySxHud7abko
and also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySxHud7abko
Ah makes sense it'd be something that would be useful to track and then provides information that people can arbitrage.
I had tried some initial URL hacking that didn't work, but think I found the set here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/k35694...
I had tried some initial URL hacking that didn't work, but think I found the set here: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/k35694...
This is a good comment.
Hey, I did that satellite productions a bit less than 20 years ago. The article doesn’t talk about this though.
GIS was all the rage, we collected satellite images over Europe, weather and market data and where able to model the date and volume of crop to enter the market. Fact being that we can get an indication of a given crop maturity status from its reflectance, thus how far from ripe it is, see https://gisgeography.com/ndvi-normalized-difference-vegetati... I guess when can train better models nowadays.
In the end, these estimations allowed for… drum roll… speculation.
GIS was all the rage, we collected satellite images over Europe, weather and market data and where able to model the date and volume of crop to enter the market. Fact being that we can get an indication of a given crop maturity status from its reflectance, thus how far from ripe it is, see https://gisgeography.com/ndvi-normalized-difference-vegetati... I guess when can train better models nowadays.
In the end, these estimations allowed for… drum roll… speculation.
That must be fun data intelligence for markets, I wonder how insurance and futures work w/ GIS data.
I just remember chatting way back with an insurance agent that insures crop growth and yields and how much is in a silo and I thought it was all interesting.
Farmers and orgs, probably more the later buy policies that are payable in fiat cash for underproduction or loss. The loss makes sense, but I didn't think it was that big of a market.
I just remember chatting way back with an insurance agent that insures crop growth and yields and how much is in a silo and I thought it was all interesting.
Farmers and orgs, probably more the later buy policies that are payable in fiat cash for underproduction or loss. The loss makes sense, but I didn't think it was that big of a market.
I took a pitch from a company early in the pandemic that was pitching last-mile supply chain/distribution planning/visibility by identifying clinics with refrigeration capacity from overhead imagery. The stats were ok, certainly not random.
[deleted]
wolverine876(10)
So... Russia is burning the Ukrainian crop, and is hoping they can hold the whole planet hostage with their harvest.
I'm hoping there's a way to get their wheat while simultaneously screwing them over back to the dark ages.
This makes me almost as angry as the West investing in more oil and gas in response to being held hostage by fossil fuel producers.
I read that less than 1% of the 18-29 year-old crowd "strongly approves" of DC's half-assed responses to these crises.
I hope they have the sense to vote in their own interest this fall. Sadly, the same polls say that, like most generations were before them, they're still young and stupid, and are planning to stay home from the polls. Some things never change.
I'm hoping there's a way to get their wheat while simultaneously screwing them over back to the dark ages.
This makes me almost as angry as the West investing in more oil and gas in response to being held hostage by fossil fuel producers.
I read that less than 1% of the 18-29 year-old crowd "strongly approves" of DC's half-assed responses to these crises.
I hope they have the sense to vote in their own interest this fall. Sadly, the same polls say that, like most generations were before them, they're still young and stupid, and are planning to stay home from the polls. Some things never change.
Yeah, all because of Russia. I wonder how no one had found some "Russian trail" in Sri Lanka.
Don't worry, your supremacist dreams won't come to pass. You can't take on Russia and the rest of the world is already too pissed with your chauvinism.
Good luck reaping what you sow.
Don't worry, your supremacist dreams won't come to pass. You can't take on Russia and the rest of the world is already too pissed with your chauvinism.
Good luck reaping what you sow.
> I read that less than 1% of the 18-29 year-old crowd "strongly approves" of DC's half-assed responses to these crises.
Sincere question: has there ever been any examples in US history of 18-29 year olds strongly approving of any handling of something controversial?
Even if I did approve of how any administration handled anything I am sure that at best I would fall in the "approve" category. "Strongly approve" seems to imply (to me) that I believe an administration did the best they could in handling a situation.
Sincere question: has there ever been any examples in US history of 18-29 year olds strongly approving of any handling of something controversial?
Even if I did approve of how any administration handled anything I am sure that at best I would fall in the "approve" category. "Strongly approve" seems to imply (to me) that I believe an administration did the best they could in handling a situation.
>Sadly, the same polls say that, like most generations were before them, they're still young and stupid, and are planning to stay home from the polls. Some things never change.
Yeah, like politicians and, to a point, people that say what you said. I've never voted and never will. Not, i believe, through youth or stupidity, but because I've yet to have someone convince me why i should vote.
I'm a Carlinist ..here to watch the shitshow, not to take part in it. And yes, i do accept all that comes with whoever got voted in. Quite frankly, i havent for the life of me seen a damn bit of difference between the lot of them...anx tgeir moaning, complaining, self-righteous supporters.
Yeah, like politicians and, to a point, people that say what you said. I've never voted and never will. Not, i believe, through youth or stupidity, but because I've yet to have someone convince me why i should vote.
I'm a Carlinist ..here to watch the shitshow, not to take part in it. And yes, i do accept all that comes with whoever got voted in. Quite frankly, i havent for the life of me seen a damn bit of difference between the lot of them...anx tgeir moaning, complaining, self-righteous supporters.
If we want rain & stable climate, we need to plant more trees / forests (see bionic pump, natural farming, forest gardens, atmospheric rivers, ...). As mr. Fukuoka says, rain comes not from earth/sky, but from the plants.
We could do that if we'd only replace cow's milk with nut milk and significantly reduce our (egregious) meat consumption. Then we could reforest upto 75% of our fields and it would sure help repair the water cycle / climate instability (among other good things).
If we don't do it, things will get so bad, even west will weep. Good news - it's something even we as individuals can influence. Simply choose plant based food when you can, and help reduce our agricultural impact.
Btw, our fields are not nature - we have too many of them, they are in fact green deserts, it's all deforested land, they don't influence the weather / water cycle in a good way, they destroy biodiversity, they poison everything, even most people have pesticides in their bodies. Our current agricultural / dietary practices are killing the earth.
Sorry, need sleep, so no sources, but somebody has to say it - study it yourself.
Edit: wow, 2 downvotes in less than 1 minute. Let it rain, burger chompers ;)
We could do that if we'd only replace cow's milk with nut milk and significantly reduce our (egregious) meat consumption. Then we could reforest upto 75% of our fields and it would sure help repair the water cycle / climate instability (among other good things).
If we don't do it, things will get so bad, even west will weep. Good news - it's something even we as individuals can influence. Simply choose plant based food when you can, and help reduce our agricultural impact.
Btw, our fields are not nature - we have too many of them, they are in fact green deserts, it's all deforested land, they don't influence the weather / water cycle in a good way, they destroy biodiversity, they poison everything, even most people have pesticides in their bodies. Our current agricultural / dietary practices are killing the earth.
Sorry, need sleep, so no sources, but somebody has to say it - study it yourself.
Edit: wow, 2 downvotes in less than 1 minute. Let it rain, burger chompers ;)
> We could do that if we'd only replace cow's milk with nut milk
Agree that meat is very inefficient. But…
Dairy animals concentrate the calories on land that can’t be mechanically farmed, converting them into human-usable nutrition.
Even dairy animals on a conventional dairy farm upcycle calories - just searched and learned dairy farmers can boost a cow’s low-quality straw diet with cottonseed meal (high protein). Humans don’t eat cottonseed meal.
I’ve known people with a single dairy cow, or a few dairy goats. I don’t think “nut milk” works without a nut milk factory.
Agree that meat is very inefficient. But…
Dairy animals concentrate the calories on land that can’t be mechanically farmed, converting them into human-usable nutrition.
Even dairy animals on a conventional dairy farm upcycle calories - just searched and learned dairy farmers can boost a cow’s low-quality straw diet with cottonseed meal (high protein). Humans don’t eat cottonseed meal.
I’ve known people with a single dairy cow, or a few dairy goats. I don’t think “nut milk” works without a nut milk factory.
> I don’t think “nut milk” works without a nut milk factory.
You are mistaken.
Take 20-100g of any nuts (or oat flakes, or cooked rice/potatoes, what have you), 1-2 dates (or a pinch of sugar), 1 litre of water, and put it in the blender. Filter it through a sieve.
You've got milk, no factory needed !
You are mistaken.
Take 20-100g of any nuts (or oat flakes, or cooked rice/potatoes, what have you), 1-2 dates (or a pinch of sugar), 1 litre of water, and put it in the blender. Filter it through a sieve.
You've got milk, no factory needed !
Nuts are much more expensive them milk and require a gasoline to be transported to places that are quite close to actual cows. Also, that thing you described does not sound like milk. More like rice with nuts mix.
> Nuts are much more expensive than milk
Milk is heavily subsidized, nuts are not. We could integrate (nut) trees into our agricultural fields, it would help with local temperatures, water retention, soil erosion, biodiversity, nutrition availability, the list is endless ... and the price of nuts would go rapidly down.
> require a gasoline to be transported to places that are quite close to actual cows
https://ychef.files.bbci.co.uk/1600x900/p0c41fcj.webp - Emissions (in kg CO2e) from the food supply chain – the climate impact of food miles is often a small proportion (Source: Our World in Data/Poore and Nemecek, Science, 2018)
> that thing you described does not sound like milk
That is a universal recipe for a plant based milk (lookup some recipes on the net if you don't believe it).
Milk is heavily subsidized, nuts are not. We could integrate (nut) trees into our agricultural fields, it would help with local temperatures, water retention, soil erosion, biodiversity, nutrition availability, the list is endless ... and the price of nuts would go rapidly down.
> require a gasoline to be transported to places that are quite close to actual cows
https://ychef.files.bbci.co.uk/1600x900/p0c41fcj.webp - Emissions (in kg CO2e) from the food supply chain – the climate impact of food miles is often a small proportion (Source: Our World in Data/Poore and Nemecek, Science, 2018)
> that thing you described does not sound like milk
That is a universal recipe for a plant based milk (lookup some recipes on the net if you don't believe it).
Cow's milk is mostly consumed in countries that receive snow or go through extream weather changes. Due to no Sun and in turn lack of Vitamin D.
Yes Almond Milk does contain Vitamine D, but not as much. Cows milk is way more nutritious while Nut based Milk frequently contain added vitamin D, calcium, and protein.
Yes Almond Milk does contain Vitamine D, but not as much. Cows milk is way more nutritious while Nut based Milk frequently contain added vitamin D, calcium, and protein.
Nuts dont grow where I live. You have to transport them from completely different climate. Planting a lot of means changing local biodiversity for the artificially create one.
Cows live where I live. They spend most of the year outside. They definitely dont take 75% of fields for themselves, most of fields are for crops of various kind.
> That is a universal recipe for a plant based milk (lookup some recipes on the net if you don't believe it).
Factually, it is rice + nuts. I can take apple juice and call it non-alcoholic wine, but it wont be wine.
Cows live where I live. They spend most of the year outside. They definitely dont take 75% of fields for themselves, most of fields are for crops of various kind.
> That is a universal recipe for a plant based milk (lookup some recipes on the net if you don't believe it).
Factually, it is rice + nuts. I can take apple juice and call it non-alcoholic wine, but it wont be wine.
I don't know where you do live, but ...
> Planting a lot of means changing local biodiversity for the artificially create one
People have been deforesting (fires etc.) the land for the last 10000 years or so, maybe even longer. So what you see, what you're accustomed to, is already a changed, artificial environment.
> ... cows ... spend most of the year outside. They definitely dont take 75% of fields for themselves, most of fields are for crops of various kind.
Yes, they do take as much.
https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/01/Global-land-use-g...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_meat_p...
> apple juice and call it non-alcoholic wine
Let it sit for a while and you'll have an alcoholic apple wine :)
> Planting a lot of means changing local biodiversity for the artificially create one
People have been deforesting (fires etc.) the land for the last 10000 years or so, maybe even longer. So what you see, what you're accustomed to, is already a changed, artificial environment.
> ... cows ... spend most of the year outside. They definitely dont take 75% of fields for themselves, most of fields are for crops of various kind.
Yes, they do take as much.
https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2020/01/Global-land-use-g...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_meat_p...
> apple juice and call it non-alcoholic wine
Let it sit for a while and you'll have an alcoholic apple wine :)
Nuts would be completely new plant, never been present in local ecosystem. The idea that this is somehow supposed to be environmental is absurd.
And no, cows where I live don't take 75% of the fields. And people here do drink quite a lot of milk, most of it local. Maybe elsewhere cows they do take huge amount of space, but not here.
Also, quite a lot of what is pasture is a place unsuitable for crops. That is why it is used for pasture.
And no, cows where I live don't take 75% of the fields. And people here do drink quite a lot of milk, most of it local. Maybe elsewhere cows they do take huge amount of space, but not here.
Also, quite a lot of what is pasture is a place unsuitable for crops. That is why it is used for pasture.
You do realize nut milk isn't literally milk?
I do, the other person claims they are replacements of each other.
You can interchange them in many contexts
I mean, except different composition and nutritional value. They have similar color and consistency.
I eat beans for every meal. Fruit and dal for breakfast; dal, veggies and more fruit for lunch; dal and more veggies for dinner (with something like plantain, breadfruit etc.) and snack on nuts and seeds throughout the day. I love the simplicity.
??? They did plant a nut milk forest...
A billion pounds of California almonds stranded at US ports
https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9442683/a-billion-pounds-...
A billion pounds of California almonds stranded at US ports
https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9442683/a-billion-pounds-...
That article is about problems with transporting almonds with ships (oceanic carriers ... make twice as many annual round trips by sending empty containers back to Asia to pick up more goods for export instead of ... almonds)? That's for another discussion ... one where I would talk about Alascan-Siberian bridge and trains, but ... let it wait for another time.
And sorry, but california farms are not forests. A monoculture from horizon to horizon is bad practice not only for the grains, but for the trees also.
For example, if done right they wouldn't need to water / deplete ground water reservoirs and hoard bees from around the country every year.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/what-is-permaculture-f...
https://agendagotsch.com/en/what-is-syntropic-farming/
https://agendagotsch.com/en/multi-story-tree-lines/
And sorry, but california farms are not forests. A monoculture from horizon to horizon is bad practice not only for the grains, but for the trees also.
For example, if done right they wouldn't need to water / deplete ground water reservoirs and hoard bees from around the country every year.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/what-is-permaculture-f...
https://agendagotsch.com/en/what-is-syntropic-farming/
https://agendagotsch.com/en/multi-story-tree-lines/
Try convincing a majority of the population to give up meat and milk, I guarantee you people won't want to.
Political will and lobbying would be the chief obstacles on the milk side. Flavour/texture and tradition strong factors on the grazing livestock side.
With a national, concerted effort I think you could slowly make headway on milk at least. Subsidies, convert flavoured milks first, UHT if possible. In theory that is. In reality, not going to happen in a hurry.
I wonder if pricing will eventually influence the meat side. Patties and sausages become non-meat first, steaks increasingly become a luxury. As it is, I'm not confident budget sausages are quality so it wouldn't take much to take them down.
With a national, concerted effort I think you could slowly make headway on milk at least. Subsidies, convert flavoured milks first, UHT if possible. In theory that is. In reality, not going to happen in a hurry.
I wonder if pricing will eventually influence the meat side. Patties and sausages become non-meat first, steaks increasingly become a luxury. As it is, I'm not confident budget sausages are quality so it wouldn't take much to take them down.
Stop subsidizing the things that hurt the planet. Everything. Oil and meat/milk alike.
When for production of 1000kJ of food you need 120m2 of land to produce beef vs. 1m2 of land to produce beans/peas, the unsubsidized market would take care of the problem. Let the capitalism work for us for once ;)
When for production of 1000kJ of food you need 120m2 of land to produce beef vs. 1m2 of land to produce beans/peas, the unsubsidized market would take care of the problem. Let the capitalism work for us for once ;)
Subsidies are critical for a sovereign state to maintain control over its lands and people. If there were a food shortage, like in Sri Lanka, people would revolt.
I’ve been reading way too much Scifi lately and interpreted this headline differently than intended.
What did you read? Any recommendations? Yearning for quality sci-fi…
Newer:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Time_(novel)
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seveneves
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Chiang
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Weir
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liu_Cixin
Older:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vorkosigan_Saga
Newer, leans fantasy (Siege and Engineer trilogies):
* https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/240708.K_J_Parker
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Time_(novel)
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seveneves
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Chiang
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Weir
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liu_Cixin
Older:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vorkosigan_Saga
Newer, leans fantasy (Siege and Engineer trilogies):
* https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/240708.K_J_Parker
Those who walk away from omelas. The left hand of darkness. Foundation series. Blodchild and other stories. Enders game. Dune. God emporer of dune. Dune chapterhouse. Dune messiah. The traitor baru cormorant. World war z. Ursula K le guin. Octavia Butler. Isaac Asimov. Philip K Dick. Frank Herbert. Etc.
I wouldn't call Baru Cormorant series a sci-fi, it's more like a fantasy genre, admittedly less of magic and such. Nevertheless, it's unusual and certainly can recommend. For the sci-fi I would also add more modern writers like Greg Egan, Alastair Reynolds, Hannu Rajaniemi, Liu Cixin, Adrian Tchaikovsky, Aliette de Bodard, and many others, often overlooked. Every single one of those have their unique imagination, vastly different from another. Quite recommend all of them to get the broader set of points of view.
Axiomatic, Exhalation, and Stories of Your Life and Others.
A recent highlight for me was the Bobiverse series.
Not who you replied to but I’m currently listening to Ministry for the future by Kim Stanley Robinson.
Other books by him I’ve enjoyed are 2312, set in the solar system in the year 2312, and then of course the Mars trilogy.
Other books by him I’ve enjoyed are 2312, set in the solar system in the year 2312, and then of course the Mars trilogy.
I've the temptation to jump in and recommend the "Ancillary Justice" series, and if you can handle a bit of pseudo-horror, the "Hyperion" series is fantastic too.
I bet John Deere knows all this as well since their tractors can provided that data right back to them. Scary to think your tractor letting them know when to time food stocks, fertilizer, etc or just sell the data to third parties.
As a John Deere employee I'll confirm we have this data. We also have strict rules about getting access to it, because we are well aware that value comes directly out of our customers potential profit and their profit is what determines how much they buy from us next year.
There is someone with access to that data (dB administrators). They are registered with the SEC as someone not allowed to trade go ensure there is no temptation to look at it.
I don't speak for the company above.
There is someone with access to that data (dB administrators). They are registered with the SEC as someone not allowed to trade go ensure there is no temptation to look at it.
I don't speak for the company above.
Do you think this is good or bad? Frankly the fact that the data is available seems ridiculous to me. Nothing stopping an administrator from pulling a Pelosi and having their significant other to feed the data elsewhere.
I'm not sure what you are asking. If the data goes from the tractor to the internet it pretty much has to go to cloud computers, and that means someone is admin of those computers and can look at it. (Running SQL is not hard). We would love for there to be a way for the admins to not have the ability to look at data, but that isn't realistic. Instead we just make it not worthwhile (i'm not sure if someone can pull a Pelosi). I don't work in that division so I have no idea what other protections might be in place.
10 years ago farmers used memory cards for this so it didn't cross the internet. Some are remote enough that they can't get even 2g signal and still do that, but most are happy it is just done for them.
Though one of the big drivers for farmers to do this is seed companies gave customers a large discount if they share data with them. The seed companies say they use it only to see how different genetics work in the real world, but any farmer sharing with them has to trust them.
10 years ago farmers used memory cards for this so it didn't cross the internet. Some are remote enough that they can't get even 2g signal and still do that, but most are happy it is just done for them.
Though one of the big drivers for farmers to do this is seed companies gave customers a large discount if they share data with them. The seed companies say they use it only to see how different genetics work in the real world, but any farmer sharing with them has to trust them.
I don't think Belarus or Rostselmash tractors produce too much data for John Deere (you will never know, though).
[deleted]
It would be good to see the same analysis for other crops that might be needed to substitute for wheat this year.
If things continue the way they are going, 2030's could be as eventfull as 1930's
There's a decent chance of the 2020s being as eventful as the 1930s. The 2030s could be even worse.
Is there any way that you can quantify that? Please remember you're on hackernews, not reddit.
The US started the 2021 with an attempted self-coup, its first ever failure to peacefully transfer power, and has so far done little to punish the organizers of it (though that's subject to change); a constitutional crisis is on the horizon depending on the outcome of a case the SCOTUS has agreed to hear; the Southwest US is facing record drought, including the near depletion of a watershed depended upon by millions of people; the Russian invasion of Ukraine is just a few wrong moves away from nuclear conflict; there's an ongoing real estate crisis brewing in China; and we're more than 2 years into a global pandemic with no sign of it truly abating, just people mostly fed up with acknowledging it. I'm not quite as pessimistic as some about the possibility of a looming recession, but add that to the pile and things just get even more concerning.
"Eventful" is hard to objectively quantify, but subjectively I certainly think that qualifies.
"Eventful" is hard to objectively quantify, but subjectively I certainly think that qualifies.
Meanwhile, farmers in Netherlands are no longer allowed to grow food.
If there ever was a reason to have the right to own arms, and to overthrow the government, I think losing the right to grow food is a valid justification for a "self-coup".
But, if you take a very big view of things, both the religious and science fanatics believe the world is ending. They have different reasons, of course. Nonetheless, the world is not ending.
But, if you take a very big view of things, both the religious and science fanatics believe the world is ending. They have different reasons, of course. Nonetheless, the world is not ending.
They can still grow food, there are just emission standards for tractors, which importantly will take most of a decade to go into effect. It's a pretty gross misrepresentation of the situation to say they're no longer allowed to grow food.
Obviously the world has not ended yet, but that doesn't mean all of history was equally uneventful or pleasant to live through. I'm not saying the world is going to end in the next decade, I'm just saying that it stands to be "eventful", and quite likely not in a good way.
Obviously the world has not ended yet, but that doesn't mean all of history was equally uneventful or pleasant to live through. I'm not saying the world is going to end in the next decade, I'm just saying that it stands to be "eventful", and quite likely not in a good way.
Has nothing to do with tractor emissions. They are being forced to forgo using nitrogen based fertilizer for crops, and cull their cattle herds to reduce ammonia. Both are going to severely cut into their income for an industry with very thin margins, and put a lot of them out of business. Their government even conceded that fact very early on and still pushed it through. The farmers are pissed and rightly so.
If they can still grow food, why are they protesting? Seems like a lot of time to waste not working on the farm. But, honestly, I haven't really found a source of news that wasn't just calling the farmers terrible names. Why do you think the farmers are being called terrible names by news sources? Maybe its because they are not growing food. Its becoming a circle now.
Which decades were "uneventful"?
Which decades were "uneventful"?
I don't know why you want me to be the one to defend the protests of farmers whose positions I clearly disagree with. I wouldn't be a very effective advocate for their position. And while I didn't see any articles calling them names, "short sighted" seems pretty fair given the goals of the emission standards.
I feel pretty comfortable saying the 1990s were less eventful in the US than the 1930s, not that I think you're responding in good faith.
I feel pretty comfortable saying the 1990s were less eventful in the US than the 1930s, not that I think you're responding in good faith.
I didn't ask you to defend them. I asked why they would be protesting.
I, too, would be a bad advocate for them as well. I am neither a Netherlander nor a farmer. I just eat and don't wonder where the food comes from, nor do I want to. I just want the food to be at the store when I am ready to buy it.
I agree the 90s were great, but I'll admit I was born in '92. So I might be biased.
I don't know what you mean by "good faith". I don't think the farmers are the short sighted ones here. They are farmers. They might be little bit interested in the long view, as hear it takes many months to grow food, and years to raise livestock. Again, I don't know, I just go to the grocery store. I hope in 10 years, whatever the farmers are protesting about, the Netherlanders can enjoy a burger [1][2], just like I do.
[1]"The ruling coalition has earmarked an extra 24.3 billion euros ($25.6bn) to finance changes that will likely make many farmers drastically reduce their number of livestock or get rid of them altogether." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/22/thousands-of-dutch-...
[2]"According to government estimates, this could lead to the shutting down of about 30 per cent of livestock farms." https://thewest.com.au/politics/dutch-farmers-block-roads-po...
I agree the 90s were great, but I'll admit I was born in '92. So I might be biased.
I don't know what you mean by "good faith". I don't think the farmers are the short sighted ones here. They are farmers. They might be little bit interested in the long view, as hear it takes many months to grow food, and years to raise livestock. Again, I don't know, I just go to the grocery store. I hope in 10 years, whatever the farmers are protesting about, the Netherlanders can enjoy a burger [1][2], just like I do.
[1]"The ruling coalition has earmarked an extra 24.3 billion euros ($25.6bn) to finance changes that will likely make many farmers drastically reduce their number of livestock or get rid of them altogether." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/22/thousands-of-dutch-...
[2]"According to government estimates, this could lead to the shutting down of about 30 per cent of livestock farms." https://thewest.com.au/politics/dutch-farmers-block-roads-po...
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> there are just emission standards for tractors
That's not what it's about. Farmers in NL are protesting because the government wants to slash NITROGEN emissions; which are associated with synthetic fertilisers and composting. It has nothing to do with CO2 emissions on tractors...
That's not what it's about. Farmers in NL are protesting because the government wants to slash NITROGEN emissions; which are associated with synthetic fertilisers and composting. It has nothing to do with CO2 emissions on tractors...
c'mon, "coup" is a bit of a ridiculous way to describe a few nutcases trespassing on government property. I did worse as a teenager.
If it were just the people storming the capitol it would already be one of the worst security breaches in the country's history. It also involved more than 60 lawsuits to overturn election results, plots to submit fraudulent slates of electors or fraudulent election results, attempts to convince officials in several states to just overturn their states' election results, over 100 congresspeople voting to overturn lawful elector counts, pressure on the vice-president to illegally overturn the election results (or even just to cooperate with them trying to do that), and plenty more, much of which was organized by the outgoing administration. It perfectly fits the definition of "self-coup", with no exaggeration required.
The nutcases were the distraction for the plan to breach Congress. You need a mob to operate without interference from Capitol police. The idea was to pull a mayor Giuliani after 9/11 scenario and have an excuse to stay in power after manufacturing chaos.
Giuliani tried to get a three month extension on his term in the wake of a massive terrorist attack in NYC. He also threatened to try to get the term limits on the mayoralty changed so he could run again. He was denied and Bloomberg was elected. Bloomberg did get around the term limits thing to get an extra term, which I bring up to highlight that a mayor serving a third term is not some horrible crisis or usurpation.
"Pulling a Giuliani" just seems like a weird expression. First, the events weren't all that comparable - 9/11 versus an hours long riot. If the worst terrorist attack on American soil didn't weaken democracy enough for a mayor to take a third term, why would a protest turned riot overthrow the presidency? Second, what Giuliani tried wasn't even that bad. And, third, not even Giuliani could pull off a Giuliani.
Personally, people who think the January 6 riot was some coup seem a bit hyperbolic to me. Was it a coup attempt when violent protesters attacked Trump's inauguration? I'd say no, of course not. Neither was January 6th.
"Pulling a Giuliani" just seems like a weird expression. First, the events weren't all that comparable - 9/11 versus an hours long riot. If the worst terrorist attack on American soil didn't weaken democracy enough for a mayor to take a third term, why would a protest turned riot overthrow the presidency? Second, what Giuliani tried wasn't even that bad. And, third, not even Giuliani could pull off a Giuliani.
Personally, people who think the January 6 riot was some coup seem a bit hyperbolic to me. Was it a coup attempt when violent protesters attacked Trump's inauguration? I'd say no, of course not. Neither was January 6th.
Those nutcases being Donald Trump, Peter Navarro, Steve Bannon, Rudy Guliani and Sidney Powell to be clear.
Do you say the same thing to people in real life?
I have people say things like this to me all the time.
My standard response at the moment is something along the lines of "If the house is burning down and water is not flowing from the fire hydrant, you don't stop to measure the water pressue".
The assertion that "you cannot improve something if you cannot measure it" IMHO promotes a lot of unproductive activity.
My standard response at the moment is something along the lines of "If the house is burning down and water is not flowing from the fire hydrant, you don't stop to measure the water pressue".
The assertion that "you cannot improve something if you cannot measure it" IMHO promotes a lot of unproductive activity.
The actual W. Edwards Demming quote is "It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it – a costly myth.”
https://deming.org/myth-if-you-cant-measure-it-you-cant-mana...
https://deming.org/myth-if-you-cant-measure-it-you-cant-mana...
Most people around me tell me we are heading towards disaster.
I asked random people om the street with a microphone. They say the same thing. There are huge things that have now been set in motion, they cannot be easilly stopped
I asked random people om the street with a microphone. They say the same thing. There are huge things that have now been set in motion, they cannot be easilly stopped
too much wheat tbh. grow more pulses - anything in Vigna would be neat, and there's a bunch of other really cool stuff too. also, do some reforesting to control heat at ground level and reduce evapotranspiration from lower plantings.
Sacrifice in March, corn have plenty starch.
When rhetoric and propaganda meet reality.
What? Every comment I've heard in the last six months has been sounding the alarm for famine.
If you want accurate pricing, keep an eye on the futures markets. Using satellites to predict harvests has been used by Wall Street since forever.
Russian economy on brink of collapse.
Russian army is losing.
Ghost of Kieve.
Putin is unhinged.
NATO more United than ever
That's the propaganda and rehtoric.
Ukraine was yet another massive failure from the ruling elite.
Their attempted fix, extreme sanctions has made things worse... for us and many millions of people in the world.
Reality is catching up to the propaganda. I have no idea why generation after generation keeps calling for it and going on these disastrous adventures.
Russian army is losing.
Ghost of Kieve.
Putin is unhinged.
NATO more United than ever
That's the propaganda and rehtoric.
Ukraine was yet another massive failure from the ruling elite.
Their attempted fix, extreme sanctions has made things worse... for us and many millions of people in the world.
Reality is catching up to the propaganda. I have no idea why generation after generation keeps calling for it and going on these disastrous adventures.
It’s not propaganda that Russia has controlled the south of Ukraine from Crimea to Donbass and therefore has been able to block grain shipments from one of the largest wheat producers in the world.
I agree that's a fact. What argument does that fact support or refute and how does that relate to my argument?
allegedly the ports are all mined with Ukrainian mines, Russia has stated that it will allow grain to leave the Black Sea if Ukraine removes it's mines. Sounds like both parties are being stubborn.
To me it seems that we're coming at the peak heat of 88 year cycle (and that is on top of the global warming base trend) and thus droughts and a lot of similarities to the 1930's. (as a cherry on top the surprising coincidence of political situation - a fascist regime wanting to expand its living space into the same vast agricultural areas of Ukraine, as well as an actively industrializing empire in the Far East having great hunger for the resources and territories of its neighbors).
> surprising coincidence of political situation
Empty stomachs breed political unrest. A human constant.
Even in middle school history class we were taught that the 1930's rise of fascism wouldn't be possible without the economic downturn that preceded it. And that the French Revolution never would've happened without huge inequalities.
Now this may have been socialist propaganda (middle school was ~6 years after Yugoslavia), but a lot of it rings true.
Empty stomachs breed political unrest. A human constant.
Even in middle school history class we were taught that the 1930's rise of fascism wouldn't be possible without the economic downturn that preceded it. And that the French Revolution never would've happened without huge inequalities.
Now this may have been socialist propaganda (middle school was ~6 years after Yugoslavia), but a lot of it rings true.
>Even in middle school history class we were taught that the 1930's rise of fascism wouldn't be possible without the economic downturn that preceded it.
The rise of the today's Russian fascism has followed exactly the same path as in Germany back then - a lost war (Afghanistan and Cold War) resulting in the crash of empire followed by a decade of economic hardship resulting in the rise of a "strong man" regime with all the same trappings of revanchism, "master nation" ideology, total suppression of basic liberties and democratic institutions, etc. (even the triggers used by the regime to grab the total governmental power are very similar - Reichstag fire in Germany and the FSB bombing of apartment buildings in 1999.) And so far we've had annexation of Crimea being extremely similar to the annexation of Sudetenlend back then, and the current stage - Ukraine invasion - is the start of the actual implementation of Lebensraum (Polish invasion back then) - last time it led directly to WWII, and i don't see how we can cheat the historic logic this time.
The rise of the today's Russian fascism has followed exactly the same path as in Germany back then - a lost war (Afghanistan and Cold War) resulting in the crash of empire followed by a decade of economic hardship resulting in the rise of a "strong man" regime with all the same trappings of revanchism, "master nation" ideology, total suppression of basic liberties and democratic institutions, etc. (even the triggers used by the regime to grab the total governmental power are very similar - Reichstag fire in Germany and the FSB bombing of apartment buildings in 1999.) And so far we've had annexation of Crimea being extremely similar to the annexation of Sudetenlend back then, and the current stage - Ukraine invasion - is the start of the actual implementation of Lebensraum (Polish invasion back then) - last time it led directly to WWII, and i don't see how we can cheat the historic logic this time.
These things are not analogical at all. Hitler turned country into authoritarian instantly when he took power in 1933. Putin on the other hand was moving slowly.
Hitler was outsider to political power, building his party from bottom. Putin represents continuity with soviet era. He was insider whole time.
Reichstag fire in Germany and the FSB bombing of apartment are quite different also, among other things because it was not inside job as FSB bomving was.
I could continue, but this comparison just does not compute.
Hitler was outsider to political power, building his party from bottom. Putin represents continuity with soviet era. He was insider whole time.
Reichstag fire in Germany and the FSB bombing of apartment are quite different also, among other things because it was not inside job as FSB bomving was.
I could continue, but this comparison just does not compute.
So, if Russia's 90% of the way there, are we in the US ~75% of the way there? The main thing we're missing from that list is the false flag attacks, the other boxes check off.
not really. The key foundation for fascism is totalitarianism which in particular includes that total suppression of liberties and democratic institutions. The US is far from it.
Most famines of the post industrial era have been man-made. Sure, droughts are natural, but allowing people to starve is a choice.
This famine will also be man-made.
I'm using empty stomachs figuratively here. You don't need an actual famine to enable the rise of fascism.
And it isn't always fascist authoritarianism either. 1910's Russia and 1930's China got the communist kind. 1940's Balkans got both kinds, but communists won the civil war.
And it isn't always fascist authoritarianism either. 1910's Russia and 1930's China got the communist kind. 1940's Balkans got both kinds, but communists won the civil war.
In my timeline, Russia spent most of the 1910s under Tsarist rule and China spent the entirety of the 1930s under either warlords or the Japanese.
Didn’t Russia bail out of WW1 in 1917 to do its revolution away from Tsarist rule? That’s the 1910’s.
You’re right that the Chinese communist revolution happened in 1948. For some reason I thought it was 10 years earlier.
You’re right that the Chinese communist revolution happened in 1948. For some reason I thought it was 10 years earlier.
> 1910’s Russia and 1930’s China got the communist kind
Other than superficial rhetoric, there is not a lot of substantive difference between Lenin/Stalin/Maoism and the common factors set of things that are more commonly referred to as fascism (Italian Fascism, German Naziism, etc.)
Other than superficial rhetoric, there is not a lot of substantive difference between Lenin/Stalin/Maoism and the common factors set of things that are more commonly referred to as fascism (Italian Fascism, German Naziism, etc.)
The difference is in what happens to the rich people isn’t it?
Fascists usually collaborate with the rich whereas communists tend to strip their wealth. At least that’s my lay understanding.
Fascists usually collaborate with the rich whereas communists tend to strip their wealth. At least that’s my lay understanding.
> The difference is in what happens to the rich people isn’t it?
Not as much as the rhetoric makes it seems.
> Fascists usually collaborate with the rich whereas communists tend to strip their wealth.
Fascists usually integrate the rich that the leadership doesn’t have some other reason to hate into the system, while liquidating those–and not always just their holdings–that don’t fit that description, even if wealthy, so long as they are willing to cooperate, retaining their nominal property but with their actual power and influence more determined by their degree of attachment to the regime, not their nominal ownership of property (that’s a consequence of the authoritarian corporatist–viewing all institutions of society as necessary subordinate to a single vision–aspect of fascism.)
Leninists (et al.)…do pretty much the same thing, except that they are more likely to not allow even nominal ownership of property. But since Leninism is (and its derivates are) also an authoritarian corporatist system, it is not ownership of property but position (formal or informal) in the ruling heirarchy that really allows you direct the use of property, just as in fascism.
Not as much as the rhetoric makes it seems.
> Fascists usually collaborate with the rich whereas communists tend to strip their wealth.
Fascists usually integrate the rich that the leadership doesn’t have some other reason to hate into the system, while liquidating those–and not always just their holdings–that don’t fit that description, even if wealthy, so long as they are willing to cooperate, retaining their nominal property but with their actual power and influence more determined by their degree of attachment to the regime, not their nominal ownership of property (that’s a consequence of the authoritarian corporatist–viewing all institutions of society as necessary subordinate to a single vision–aspect of fascism.)
Leninists (et al.)…do pretty much the same thing, except that they are more likely to not allow even nominal ownership of property. But since Leninism is (and its derivates are) also an authoritarian corporatist system, it is not ownership of property but position (formal or informal) in the ruling heirarchy that really allows you direct the use of property, just as in fascism.
Do you mind breaking up the sentences for ease of comprehension. Reading it made me feel a little out of breath and I lost the plot mid sentence. I know there is an interesting thought here, but the prose is a tad to turgid.
> Empty stomachs breed political unrest. A human constant.
Every society is 3 meals away from chaos. - Lenin
Every society is 3 meals away from chaos. - Lenin
The economic downturn definitely helped fascism in its last steps to power. But, it was far from the only factor in play. Great depression started in 1929, at that time Hitler had already putch attempt behind him and had considerable radial party. There was a lot of unrest already.
And similar goes with french revolution. The old regime was getting weak every day and unsustainable.
And similar goes with french revolution. The old regime was getting weak every day and unsustainable.
Yes the Great Depression started in 1929, but Germany is not America. Their deep economic troubles started at least as early as the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic between 1921 and 1923[1]. Note also that Germany lost WW1 and the peace treaty of 1918 was extremely punitive[2].
> In the four years following the First World War, the situation for German civilians remained dire. The severe food shortages improved little to none up until 1923.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_R...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Burden_from_th...
> In the four years following the First World War, the situation for German civilians remained dire. The severe food shortages improved little to none up until 1923.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_R...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Burden_from_th...
Germany loosing WWI did contributed, but is in the "other then economical factors contributing to issues". The treaty of 1918 was punitive, but not extremely for that time. What germany planned in case they win was quite similar.
Hitler took power in 1933. And the stab in the back myth was more motivating thing for these groups then purely economic issues.
The yet other factors was Germany being heavily militaristic state, both ideologically and practically. Government employing primary military man on all levels, democracy not really functioning and being a mess. The whole country was violent mess.
Hitler took power in 1933. And the stab in the back myth was more motivating thing for these groups then purely economic issues.
The yet other factors was Germany being heavily militaristic state, both ideologically and practically. Government employing primary military man on all levels, democracy not really functioning and being a mess. The whole country was violent mess.
Skip the first 92 pages and go straight to 93-96 which give a total rundown of all US crop acreage and production, from corn and soybeans down to maple syrup and peppermint oil. Continue with page 97 which has a complete month-by-month rundown on US weather with comments on impact on specific crops.
Comprehensive.