Canada's population is booming – access to family doctors hasn't kept pace(cbc.ca)
cbc.ca
Canada's population is booming – access to family doctors hasn't kept pace
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-popuation-booming-family-doctor-access-1.7087794
122 comments
Context: An amazingly high portion of Canadians don't have a family doctor <https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/despite-more-doctors-many-cana...>. In Atlantic Canada (the four easternmost provinces) it is impossible, repeat impossible, to get a family doctor if you don't have one <https://web.archive.org/web/20190226051406/https://www.thete...>. It's one thing to have shortages in rural areas—that happens in the US too—but Halifax?!? I've heard the same occurs in Vancouver too.
I've had two family doctors over the last four years, and they've both closed their practice to become specialists; much better paying, much easier work. I've been going to walk-in clinics who technically have "consistent" doctors I see every time I go in, but those people vanish without a trace, too.
This is just a prioritization problem.
We have more doctors per capita than we did 20 years ago, they just don't pay them properly to be family doctors.
BC changed its primary care billing model dramatically in 2023 to address the problem. The new model pays doctors based on a combination of their patient load and the complexity of their cases. The typical family doctor pay rises as a result from C$250K to C$385K - in line with what many specialists earn.
As a result, doctors are moving to BC from other provinces and countries and, as an anecdote, my small community now has 3x as many doctors as it had before. Money works.
As a result, doctors are moving to BC from other provinces and countries and, as an anecdote, my small community now has 3x as many doctors as it had before. Money works.
From 2000-2022, Canada's average age increased from 36.8 to 41. Older population consumes more health services.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/444844/canada-median-age...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/444844/canada-median-age...
My father was a GP who ran and taught a residency program for the speciality. In the 80s and 90s the program was extremely competitive, but by the 00’s they struggled to fill a class.
Med students caught on, why work your ass off in the most thankless field of medicine to make 200-300k when you could be a cardiologist and make $1mm reading X-rays?
Med students caught on, why work your ass off in the most thankless field of medicine to make 200-300k when you could be a cardiologist and make $1mm reading X-rays?
It also takes ages to see any specialists, so it's not like there is a glut of cardiologists running around.
The bottleneck is the residency programs. The cardiology residencies are massively oversubscribed, whereas the GP residencies get the dregs.
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'Market' failure. Something is interfering with supply and demand.
Canadian Medicare is also largely based on the NHS system back in the UK, which is also buckling for similar reasons.
Both the Canadian and British Single Payer system are holdovers from the post-war Old Labour era, specifically, the vision of Clement Attlee in the UK and Tommy Douglas in Canada.
I think a lot of people forget that Canada was basically Britain-lite until the 70s and 80s (hell, Newfoundland was under direct British rule until 1945), when Americanization became more prominent in the younger post-war generation.
Most of the Canadian leadership until the 1980s studied in the UK, were born in the UK, or were the children of immigrants from the UK. And specifically blue collar Labour Party leaning parts of Scotland. As such, a lot of the policies and legislation passed in Canada before the 80s or 90s tends to have a significant amount of British influence in it.
Australia's is similar as well, but they moved towards a public-private model in the late 1990s after their economy almost collapsed in the early 1990s.
Both the Canadian and British Single Payer system are holdovers from the post-war Old Labour era, specifically, the vision of Clement Attlee in the UK and Tommy Douglas in Canada.
I think a lot of people forget that Canada was basically Britain-lite until the 70s and 80s (hell, Newfoundland was under direct British rule until 1945), when Americanization became more prominent in the younger post-war generation.
Most of the Canadian leadership until the 1980s studied in the UK, were born in the UK, or were the children of immigrants from the UK. And specifically blue collar Labour Party leaning parts of Scotland. As such, a lot of the policies and legislation passed in Canada before the 80s or 90s tends to have a significant amount of British influence in it.
Australia's is similar as well, but they moved towards a public-private model in the late 1990s after their economy almost collapsed in the early 1990s.
Another side effect is that when you do get one they are so packed with patients that you have to wait months for a low priority appointment or see the doctor after hours.
You may be right that this is a prioritization problem, in that the priority is allowing incompetent/bad bureaucrats and unelected administrators as a central-single point of failure to make decisions - rather than allowing the free market decide, allowing the general population decide - so then the most efficient providers while providing an acceptable quality of care gain momentum, can hire more staff, etc.
But this is not a "just don't pay them properly" issue because in Canada free market competitive forces don't economically suffocate out the bad-incompetent doctors and administrators, and also then don't fuel-reward the good-best doctors and administrators.
How do I know this? 10+ years of hell trying to navigate the Ontario medical system, the prior 10+ years being harmed by that Ontario system - where I have had to spend $600k+ getting medical treatment outside of Canada, with the next surgery coming in in Europe to add another 60k EUR to medical expenses - of which I would have to find a lawyer who specializes in suing OHIP, spend another $200k+ and years of time, to try to get compensated for any of the expenses; stress, time, and money that isn't available to initiate that.
Anyone defending the current system has no leg to stand on: there's absolutely zero oversight and accountability. Example? I recently actually became a "rostered" patient with a general-family physician, rostered meaning that instead of going to a walk-in clinic and waiting many many hours to briefly discuss 1 thing - I can book an appointment instead. Of the 3 phone calls I had with this "family" physician so far, of which I had a file with them for years and recently had see multiple of his assistants (PAs: physician assistants), he hadn't even for a moment reviewed my file, nor on the 2nd and 3rd call did he even review the previous call notes with me - to even know what page he should be on; and no, not a new physician, he's been practicing for 25+ years.
This also is part of a planned destruction-erasure of Canadian culture and weakening of the population strategy.
In part via weaponized immigration + weaponized international student visas + irrational-illogical highly harmful "carbon tax" on all Canadian products and services - rather than say specifically on products coming from China - which arguably the majority are but Trudeau is toeing the CCP line, our intelligence agency CSIS having multiple whistle blowers [one who even came publicly forward to add credibility] stated that Trudeau and 11+ MPs had help of CCP to get elected for at least the last 2 elections; and more tactics they deployed.
Chart showing the West reducing its CO2 emissions vs. China's skyrocketing: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?facet=none&Gas+or+W...
Ignorance is bliss, and if the depths of your understanding is only what's discussed as acceptable to pop culture - which is heavily crafted by what narratives state-funded media like CBC floods the landscape with - then you'll miss the foundational points, because they don't want you to know the fundamentals, don't want you critically thinking through - they want you regurgitating-parroting.
But this is not a "just don't pay them properly" issue because in Canada free market competitive forces don't economically suffocate out the bad-incompetent doctors and administrators, and also then don't fuel-reward the good-best doctors and administrators.
How do I know this? 10+ years of hell trying to navigate the Ontario medical system, the prior 10+ years being harmed by that Ontario system - where I have had to spend $600k+ getting medical treatment outside of Canada, with the next surgery coming in in Europe to add another 60k EUR to medical expenses - of which I would have to find a lawyer who specializes in suing OHIP, spend another $200k+ and years of time, to try to get compensated for any of the expenses; stress, time, and money that isn't available to initiate that.
Anyone defending the current system has no leg to stand on: there's absolutely zero oversight and accountability. Example? I recently actually became a "rostered" patient with a general-family physician, rostered meaning that instead of going to a walk-in clinic and waiting many many hours to briefly discuss 1 thing - I can book an appointment instead. Of the 3 phone calls I had with this "family" physician so far, of which I had a file with them for years and recently had see multiple of his assistants (PAs: physician assistants), he hadn't even for a moment reviewed my file, nor on the 2nd and 3rd call did he even review the previous call notes with me - to even know what page he should be on; and no, not a new physician, he's been practicing for 25+ years.
This also is part of a planned destruction-erasure of Canadian culture and weakening of the population strategy.
In part via weaponized immigration + weaponized international student visas + irrational-illogical highly harmful "carbon tax" on all Canadian products and services - rather than say specifically on products coming from China - which arguably the majority are but Trudeau is toeing the CCP line, our intelligence agency CSIS having multiple whistle blowers [one who even came publicly forward to add credibility] stated that Trudeau and 11+ MPs had help of CCP to get elected for at least the last 2 elections; and more tactics they deployed.
Chart showing the West reducing its CO2 emissions vs. China's skyrocketing: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?facet=none&Gas+or+W...
Ignorance is bliss, and if the depths of your understanding is only what's discussed as acceptable to pop culture - which is heavily crafted by what narratives state-funded media like CBC floods the landscape with - then you'll miss the foundational points, because they don't want you to know the fundamentals, don't want you critically thinking through - they want you regurgitating-parroting.
You might want to take off your foil hat. I am also very curious on you breaking down your claims as they don't make any sense on money spent and what happened. Regardless it seems like you had a bad experience (like others do - all around the world in every medical system) and that sucks. We can definitely do better
Have you looked at news regarding the intelligence agency in Canada or do you just like claiming people are crazy with your tinfoil hat comment?
Your starting with ad hominem is becoming a regular occurrence on HN; you're clearly not mature or developed enough to be worth engaging with if ad hominem is your starting point due to lacking emotional regulation and strength to any other argument point you did or didn't put forward - due to the amount of effort you're willing to put in.
You can't brainstorm any scenario where the money spent makes sense? And indeed, I didn't give much detail at all for the costs, except for the upcoming surgery.
And then you jump to actual whataboutism.
You can't brainstorm any scenario where the money spent makes sense? And indeed, I didn't give much detail at all for the costs, except for the upcoming surgery.
And then you jump to actual whataboutism.
In Canada, the whole so called "free" healthcare system is collapsing, not just access to family doctors. If you get sick and you're not visibly dying right now – good luck to get any help. The best you can hope for is $60 10 min appointment via zoom with a doctor that can't even refer you to a specialist. Also, you can spend 6-10 hours in your local ER to get help, or be told to come tomorrow because we don't have radiologist or something.
Oh there's an option to subscribe to "case management" plan at your local doctor office for $2000/year per person, then you can magically have ad-hoc slots, phone consultations, referrals to specialists etc.
Oh there's an option to subscribe to "case management" plan at your local doctor office for $2000/year per person, then you can magically have ad-hoc slots, phone consultations, referrals to specialists etc.
You also have people that go to the ER for nothing plugging up the system.
I was in the ER waiting to get stitches and someone had a blister. Why are you at the ER for a blister on your finger.
Because they don't have a family doctor.
Because they have nowhere to go at all. In my area there's one walk-in clinic left and it stops accepting new visitors 1-2 hours after opening.
I live in BC, personally went through this ordeal this year involving two medical issues. One was during the holidays so access to specialists was even worse.
I did not know about "case management plans". That's a lot of money but for the price of a nice Apple laptop, a more personalized assessment of my chronic digestive issues? I might resort to that.
I did not know about "case management plans". That's a lot of money but for the price of a nice Apple laptop, a more personalized assessment of my chronic digestive issues? I might resort to that.
They can be called something else, it's just an example from the nearest clinic that offers that.
I see, I'm in the Vancouver area and my family doctor's clinic doesn't seem to offer that, at least on their website.
Why do you lie and spread fud ? I have been in Vancouver/BC for close to 10y and have never heard of anyone paying for care in any form. The virtual ones are all covered by MSP, access to doctors via the virtual calls and walk ins isn't perfect but isn't what you're describing
I paid $60 to see a shopping mall optometrist in Richmond to diagnose my sudden vision problem. It was a co-pay for the service. I went home without having to go to the ER that day.
It was a wise suggestion by my mother, in that going to the hospital ER could've been a multi-hour long wait.
It was a wise suggestion by my mother, in that going to the hospital ER could've been a multi-hour long wait.
Optometrist is a grey area as it isn't really covered by MSP, like dental. Unless it is a medical emergency. So your mother told you the right thing, because it's true
"Lie"? You can go fuck yourself, bud.
Maybe in BC it's much better (I doubt it), but in Ontario, wherever you go to get online appointment, it's $50-70. There are places that still accept OHIP, but it's harder and harder to find. Last time we just bit the bullet and paid $60 because of urgency.
Maybe in BC it's much better (I doubt it), but in Ontario, wherever you go to get online appointment, it's $50-70. There are places that still accept OHIP, but it's harder and harder to find. Last time we just bit the bullet and paid $60 because of urgency.
Most western countries are seeing severely declining birth rates right now. What is different about canada? Is this driven by immigration?
There’s 1 million international students in Canadian university right now. There’s just 38Miion people in Canada.
Canada took immigration on steroids under their current government. Many think it’s not sustainable with housing, medical, education, and social services unable to absorb such large growth short term.
Canada took immigration on steroids under their current government. Many think it’s not sustainable with housing, medical, education, and social services unable to absorb such large growth short term.
It is sustainable, just not with the current polices.
At its current first world standards, Canada should be able to attract top talent from any developing country. It has practically infinite space & resources. They can selectively import a mix of medicine, education and construction professionals to make sure that services keep in touch with the rising population. Sadly, their polices are all over the place. While the US skims from the top of the Indian talent pool, Canada seems hell bent on importing the most mediocre of Indian talent.
This article does a good job of elaborating on the needles and massive hurdles faced by a foreign health-care professional, if they want to immigrate to Canada. You can complain about the shortcomings all you want, but the unwillingness to expand slots is a purely political decision. Similarly, despite having a massive housing shortage, housing remains firmly in the grasp of Canadian NIMBYs.
All social-welfarist countries will need to find ways to replace their aging workforces. Some will try to promote fertility (Hungary, Poland?) and others will try immigration. There isn't much else you can do. For once, the US had had a mature and well thought out legal immigration system. It pretty much selects for only those who can productively contribute to the economy, and that's after drawing ~$200k in tuition and ~5-10 years of uncompensated social security taxes.
At its current first world standards, Canada should be able to attract top talent from any developing country. It has practically infinite space & resources. They can selectively import a mix of medicine, education and construction professionals to make sure that services keep in touch with the rising population. Sadly, their polices are all over the place. While the US skims from the top of the Indian talent pool, Canada seems hell bent on importing the most mediocre of Indian talent.
This article does a good job of elaborating on the needles and massive hurdles faced by a foreign health-care professional, if they want to immigrate to Canada. You can complain about the shortcomings all you want, but the unwillingness to expand slots is a purely political decision. Similarly, despite having a massive housing shortage, housing remains firmly in the grasp of Canadian NIMBYs.
All social-welfarist countries will need to find ways to replace their aging workforces. Some will try to promote fertility (Hungary, Poland?) and others will try immigration. There isn't much else you can do. For once, the US had had a mature and well thought out legal immigration system. It pretty much selects for only those who can productively contribute to the economy, and that's after drawing ~$200k in tuition and ~5-10 years of uncompensated social security taxes.
> It has practically infinite space & resources.
Not true for most of Canada on the Shield, the vast majority of land is close to barren rock, very hard rock at that, and way too cold & remote for economically viable anything (without huge subsidies from Ottawa), any mining/farming/etc. only happens in unusual pockets, like Sudbury where a big asteroid hit relatively recently in the geological past.
Not true for most of Canada on the Shield, the vast majority of land is close to barren rock, very hard rock at that, and way too cold & remote for economically viable anything (without huge subsidies from Ottawa), any mining/farming/etc. only happens in unusual pockets, like Sudbury where a big asteroid hit relatively recently in the geological past.
Context: Like the US, Canada allows international students to work. Unlike the US, Canada allows those students to work off campus, up to 40 hours a week. This has caused the rise of an entire industry, in which so-called institutions of higher learning (Conestoga, Lambton, Confederation) have 99% Indian "students" that work off campus, destroying the local job and housing markets.
I think you meant to say immigrants alleviate the local labor shortage and contribute to the housing market.
50% of migrants can't find a job.
Our banks are publishing papers that for every 1% our population increases, home prices appreciate 3% above the target CPI of 2%; AFTER accounting for interest rates.
It's flat out a Ponzi Scheme. Our real wages are absolute CRAP.
Our banks are publishing papers that for every 1% our population increases, home prices appreciate 3% above the target CPI of 2%; AFTER accounting for interest rates.
It's flat out a Ponzi Scheme. Our real wages are absolute CRAP.
Almost all of our colleges are diploma mills now. Not just the private ones.
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Just to compare, US also has 1 million international students while having x10 population.
Canada's population has grown faster than the US. US is "only" 8x Canada now.
Canada: 40.8 million (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005...)
US: 336 million (https://www.census.gov/popclock/)
Canada: 40.8 million (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2018005...)
US: 336 million (https://www.census.gov/popclock/)
Over 2 Million a year are coming in. Canada does not have infinite space. Most of the country is uninhabitable. It has a harsh climate. Most of the influx goes to two cities and their environs.
Housing costs are the most expensive in the developed world.
You could make like 20 more Calgaries east of the Rockies with prefabs pumped out WW2 style. The geography there ain't that unique.
But that's not how city economics works. And most immigrants are from India and China. They, quite rightly, prefer to settle in places were their are others who share the same language and culture. That's Toronto and Vancouver. That's also were the jobs are.
Have they considered moving back to India or China if they want to move the goalposts from 'uninhabitable' to cultural immersion of their homeland/ancestoral homeland?
Except the last cold snap in Alberta almost took out their power grid. Canada needs infrastructure to build things out and we have not investment in what we have let alone what we need, how can we build out even just 1 more Calgary?
People live in Texas and it /actually/ took out their power grid..
I have no power service at all. Generator+solar, not that hard to figure out what to do for weak grids.
Entirely by immigration - Canada's fertility rate is low even by developed Western standards. Around 1.4 children per woman, compared to the US at 1.64, the UK at 1.56, and not far from Japan at 1.34
I was just in Toronto. It’s basically Indian Chicago.
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That sounds dope.
Wait until you see Brampton
I think the lower mainland has a much higher proportion of Indians than anywhere in Ontario.
>The Lower Mainland is a geographic and cultural region of the mainland coast of British Columbia that generally comprises the regional districts of Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
--Wikipedia
--Wikipedia
Yep. The community is much older too - South Asians had been in the Lower Mainland since the 1880s-90s during the lumber boom.
I thought Vancouver was mostly Chinese
It's a very diverse place - you have people from basically everywhere.
OP said “mostly” not “solely”. I think this is probably accurate.
No, it isn't. There are a lot of people of Chinese ethnicity in Vancouver but it is nowhere near the dominant fraction. But there is a very nice Chinatown (great food).
The ethnic 'whites' are about 50%, ethnic Chinese is now ~25%, it was quite a bit lower when I was still living in Canada so it was definitely on the rise but the increase seems to have leveled off.
Some externally sourced data that more or less confirms this:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/canadian-cities/vancouver-...
The ethnic 'whites' are about 50%, ethnic Chinese is now ~25%, it was quite a bit lower when I was still living in Canada so it was definitely on the rise but the increase seems to have leveled off.
Some externally sourced data that more or less confirms this:
https://worldpopulationreview.com/canadian-cities/vancouver-...
Canada has a “points-based” immigration system - you get points for various factors (university degrees, in-demand skills, etc), and anyone who gets over the cutoff can immigrate permanently. A lot easier to navigate and understand than the US rules. Hence, on a per capita basis, its immigration rate is 2-3 times that of the US.
Australia and New Zealand are other countries with a points-based system. Australia likewise has much higher immigration than US, although currently not quite as high as Canada. New Zealand’s immigration levels have historically been higher than the US too, although the last few years have been a COVID-induced anomaly. (Again, when I say higher, I mean per capita - in absolute terms the US comes first globally, but per capita it is only about average.)
Australia and New Zealand are other countries with a points-based system. Australia likewise has much higher immigration than US, although currently not quite as high as Canada. New Zealand’s immigration levels have historically been higher than the US too, although the last few years have been a COVID-induced anomaly. (Again, when I say higher, I mean per capita - in absolute terms the US comes first globally, but per capita it is only about average.)
People tend to ignore or underestimate the contribution of longevity to population growth even while birth rates decline.
Last I checked, in Quebec specifically, 25%+ of the population is 65 and up, and it's trending upward. Immigration rates definitely have to do with the shorter-term issues, but this has been going on for decades at this point.
Would that not make the situation worse? I would think that having more older people as part of the population means less productivity and a much bigger strain on the health care system.
I don't know what qualitative framework you are using to judge "worse". I am only remarking that increasing longevity is a non-negligible contributor to population. The process involves births and deaths, so you can't look only at births. You have to look at how many people are dying at what ages.
Yes. Birth rate is 1.4 by woman but immigration is 470k/y.
Don't forget the visa immigrants. Students, special work permits like IT, refugees and illegals. It's 2+ Million a year.
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Yes. Opening paragraph:
> Canada is going through an unprecedented growth spurt, having added well over a million people last year after a similarly historic intake in 2022.
> Canada is going through an unprecedented growth spurt, having added well over a million people last year after a similarly historic intake in 2022.
I can't find the article now so someone might want to fact check me, but I believe the figure is that 98% of Canada's population increase in 2023 was from immigration.
“added 1 million people” is not super clear language as to the contributing factor
AFAICT, "adding a million people" is double counting by adding the number of people who arrive and the number of people who obtain residency.
I don't think it's double counting unless StatsCan's population estimates are way off. For example, look at the delta between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=171000...
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=171000...
Relevant: A cap on international students has been announced today.
https://web.archive.org/web/20240122144208/https://www.thegl...
https://web.archive.org/web/20240122144208/https://www.thegl...
The role of the family doctor (in the US) has changed drastically in the last ~8 years. They are a heuristic wearing a lab coat doing mostly data entry.
The healthcare industry (in the US) needs sweeping reform to embrace technological and sociological realities for the 2020s. The AMA is a brake on progress, and not crazy progress or "disruption," but basic things like providing more direct access to care. Insurance companies are changing some aspects, but mostly in ways that benefit them, not the individual.
The healthcare industry (in the US) needs sweeping reform to embrace technological and sociological realities for the 2020s. The AMA is a brake on progress, and not crazy progress or "disruption," but basic things like providing more direct access to care. Insurance companies are changing some aspects, but mostly in ways that benefit them, not the individual.
The Canadian government's plan is import people by the boatload and hope everything from housing to public services just sort of works itself out.
"The Century Initiative (originally the Laurier Project Foundation)[2] is a Canadian lobby group and charity that aims to increase Canada's population to 100 million by 2100."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_Initiative
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Century_Initiative
> Multiple founders and affiliates of the organization have been employed by McKinsey & Company, a multinational consulting firm. Due to this, the Century Initiative has been connected to a scandal over McKinsey consulting expenses by Justin Trudeau's government, in which whistleblowers have highlighted McKinsey's large and growing influence over Canadian immigration policy.
McKinsey's influence on government policy around the world seems unhealthy.
McKinsey's influence on government policy around the world seems unhealthy.
Why would they want the population to grow so large?
There are a few groups pursing this goal:
- People who imagine Canada as a global player. 100 million puts you in the big leagues.
- People who fear our current demographics. Given our birth rate, our pension system is bankrupt without multiple 100k new arrivals every year. An aging population does similarly bad things to our health systems.
- People who worship GDP over GDP per capita.
- Our ownership aristocrats (aka the new Family Compact, a subset of the GDP group). If you own big tracts of land, or control national chains in protected industries, then your income tends to a stable fraction of total GDP. Every new arrival is a forced customer of your monopolistic supply.
Nobody pushing more immigration also supports pro-natal policies to encourage higher native birth rates.
That is trivially refuted by the website.
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/our-work#focus-4-early-chil...
And all governments of the last 30 years have been spending money on children: Harper had sports credits, and the Universal Canada Child Benefit. Trudeau replaced it with Canada Child Benefit and has added daycare subsidies, dental and drug cover for minors.
The bigger problem is that nobody in the world has figured out what effective "pro-natal" policies look like. You can't push on a string.
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/our-work#focus-4-early-chil...
And all governments of the last 30 years have been spending money on children: Harper had sports credits, and the Universal Canada Child Benefit. Trudeau replaced it with Canada Child Benefit and has added daycare subsidies, dental and drug cover for minors.
The bigger problem is that nobody in the world has figured out what effective "pro-natal" policies look like. You can't push on a string.
The family compact doesn't have strong feelings about where their customers come from. But Canada's TFR fell below 2 in the 80s, and hasn't really changed since. If you have a magic wand, don't hold back.
Given how old our demographics are, even if our 20-year-olds all started having 3 kids each, TFR wouldn't even climb much. Demographic decline is baked in the cake without immigration.
Given how old our demographics are, even if our 20-year-olds all started having 3 kids each, TFR wouldn't even climb much. Demographic decline is baked in the cake without immigration.
Healthcare for children is the baseline for a civilized country. It’s not a pro-natal policy. Obviously none of these token gestures towards the idea of pro-natalism have had any effect, and yet immigration has only accelerated.
The CCB is ~6k/year cash. That's not healthcare. It's means tested, but bigger than the $50/mo baby bonus my mom got in the 70s. And 1 full year (combined) for maternity and paternity is much more than the US.
I would say it in reverse: BECAUSE 40 years of trying to raise TFR has absolutely failed in every advanced nation on the planet, Canada has chosen immigration as the only practical path.
Or you tell me - is there somewhere you think we should copy? Or are you just blaming 40 years of Canadian government for a global phenomenon?
The ex-Soviet states have had some recent gains, but those look more like a rebound from the total collapse of the 80s. And they are all stabilizing around the new-normal 1.8. I don't think there are any lessons there. Hungary has struggled to recover from the post-Soviet low of 1.3, and has almost reached the might peak of 1.6!
https://ifstudies.org/blog/a-new-normal-an-updated-look-at-f...
I would say it in reverse: BECAUSE 40 years of trying to raise TFR has absolutely failed in every advanced nation on the planet, Canada has chosen immigration as the only practical path.
Or you tell me - is there somewhere you think we should copy? Or are you just blaming 40 years of Canadian government for a global phenomenon?
The ex-Soviet states have had some recent gains, but those look more like a rebound from the total collapse of the 80s. And they are all stabilizing around the new-normal 1.8. I don't think there are any lessons there. Hungary has struggled to recover from the post-Soviet low of 1.3, and has almost reached the might peak of 1.6!
https://ifstudies.org/blog/a-new-normal-an-updated-look-at-f...
> Hungary has struggled to recover from the post-Soviet low of 1.3, and has almost reached the might peak of 1.6!
Dead cat bounce. Will be below 1.0 within a decade or two.
Little girls who grow up watching all the adult women around them have few or no children don't suddenly get it in their heads that they want a large family. The rate of decline will only accelerate.
Dead cat bounce. Will be below 1.0 within a decade or two.
Little girls who grow up watching all the adult women around them have few or no children don't suddenly get it in their heads that they want a large family. The rate of decline will only accelerate.
Until the government bans birth control.
Yeh, that'll do it. It's totally impossible to avoid having children if the condoms are pulled off the shelf at the local gas station.
>is fully exhausted at $25,921 of earned income
Almost nobody except really poor people get this credit and its only $6000 in an entire year. Do you expect that to increase birth rates across the whole population?
Almost nobody except really poor people get this credit and its only $6000 in an entire year. Do you expect that to increase birth rates across the whole population?
I don't expect anything to change birth rates across the whole population. I'm asserting that nobody on the planet has that one figured out. The last 40 years are a long tale of repeated global failure to push on a string, and it has absolutely nothing to do with Canada. I'm hoping you have a counter example.
So because no major country has solved this problem (except hungry which doesnt count because... reasons) then you oppose doing anything more than what has already been tried? Could that argument be used to oppose climate change action? Or literally any problem? You’re argument is logically invalid.
I oppose nothing, except your sloppy claim that "nothing" has been tried. Lots of things have been tried, and they failed. 40 years of failure from Seoul to San Francisco. That's not the same as not trying. Please, enlighten me on your plan to raise birth rates.
A sad truth is that it's likely impossible to be (effectively) pro-natalist outside of totalitarianism. For instance, China had no trouble lowering their fertility rate to nearly 1, but they've since found it difficult to raise it back up. And they're not exactly a gentle government. Even Best Korea has Glorious leader crying and begging for people to have more children.
On 4chan, they have some laughably bad conspiracy theories about it, and while I don't subscribe to those, we clearly have some very effective (accidental) propaganda that discourages people from procreating. But banning that propaganda isn't compatible with free speech, and so I think that it's virtually impossible for anyone to do anything about this in the West. What surprises me is that even China and North Korea apparently can't handle it either.
It's not even easy to talk about. Any attempt is seen as (at best) thinly veiled racism. I think that even if you didn't care about natalism, that you still might not want your population to triple. Isn't the housing crisis already absurd in the Toronto region as it is? This can't be in the interest of any Canadian, no matter their skin color.
On 4chan, they have some laughably bad conspiracy theories about it, and while I don't subscribe to those, we clearly have some very effective (accidental) propaganda that discourages people from procreating. But banning that propaganda isn't compatible with free speech, and so I think that it's virtually impossible for anyone to do anything about this in the West. What surprises me is that even China and North Korea apparently can't handle it either.
It's not even easy to talk about. Any attempt is seen as (at best) thinly veiled racism. I think that even if you didn't care about natalism, that you still might not want your population to triple. Isn't the housing crisis already absurd in the Toronto region as it is? This can't be in the interest of any Canadian, no matter their skin color.
Completely agree that this is a global thing. The Anglosphere housing crisis does seem special to a particular kind of colonial development pattern. But TFR is below replacement anywhere that has developed past poverty. Woke Canada and manly-manly Hungary are in the same boat.
But I'll push back on one thing: who is this mysterious "you" people keep talking to? There is no single "Canadian" whose interests represent the whole.
There are LOTS of people who are doing well from the current housing crisis -- landlords, real estate agents, homeowners, construction trades, the Family Compact, etc. Landlords have perfected the rennoviction sneak past rent-control. They love the crisis. Our mayor in 2000 was a (small-time crooked) furniture dealer. Immigrants buy furniture. Our last mayor worked for a monopoly cable company - every new immigrant needs a phone/tv/internet package. The Westons (grocery barons) basically make money from every new body in Canada. All of them know that more immigration = more money in their pocket.
It's been hell on young people, but you might notice they aren't running the show.
But I'll push back on one thing: who is this mysterious "you" people keep talking to? There is no single "Canadian" whose interests represent the whole.
There are LOTS of people who are doing well from the current housing crisis -- landlords, real estate agents, homeowners, construction trades, the Family Compact, etc. Landlords have perfected the rennoviction sneak past rent-control. They love the crisis. Our mayor in 2000 was a (small-time crooked) furniture dealer. Immigrants buy furniture. Our last mayor worked for a monopoly cable company - every new immigrant needs a phone/tv/internet package. The Westons (grocery barons) basically make money from every new body in Canada. All of them know that more immigration = more money in their pocket.
It's been hell on young people, but you might notice they aren't running the show.
> But I'll push back on one thing: who is this mysterious "you" people keep talking to? There is no single "Canadian" whose interests represent the whole.
I think in this case there is. Whether your ancestors have been there for 200 years, or you just naturalized last week... it's not in your interest for Canada to import another 70 million people so they can "be a player on the world stage".
> There are LOTS of people who are doing well from the current housing crisis
There are some who do relatively well in it, but it's doubtful to me that their (self-)perceived wealth is actually higher in these conditions than it would be in a country with a strong economy, low inflation, and an engaged workforce. Their 1%er income might be twice as high, but buys less than half as much. Most of the people you point out are lusting after a larger piece of a smaller pie. And the few that truly to gain advantage from this, they number in the low thousands or even hundreds, not the tens of millions.
I'm not in Canada myself, but the country I am a citizen of is suffering the same exact problem. If mine is too dumb to fix it, it might be nice to at least see you guys succeed. Doesn't look like that's in the cards either.
I think in this case there is. Whether your ancestors have been there for 200 years, or you just naturalized last week... it's not in your interest for Canada to import another 70 million people so they can "be a player on the world stage".
> There are LOTS of people who are doing well from the current housing crisis
There are some who do relatively well in it, but it's doubtful to me that their (self-)perceived wealth is actually higher in these conditions than it would be in a country with a strong economy, low inflation, and an engaged workforce. Their 1%er income might be twice as high, but buys less than half as much. Most of the people you point out are lusting after a larger piece of a smaller pie. And the few that truly to gain advantage from this, they number in the low thousands or even hundreds, not the tens of millions.
I'm not in Canada myself, but the country I am a citizen of is suffering the same exact problem. If mine is too dumb to fix it, it might be nice to at least see you guys succeed. Doesn't look like that's in the cards either.
That's just silly. The realistic alternative isn't a strong Canada with a strong economy, low inflation, and engaged workforce. The likely alternative is Canada facing demographic collapse! We'd have a shrinking workforce as the boomers retire, persistent wage inflation as we allocate more and more of the youth into elder-care, rising taxes, and flight to the USA by the talented and ambitions. CPP is bankrupt in 15 years without substantial immigration.
Canada is currently having a spirited debate about levels. It's pretty obvious that 500k/a is higher than we can currently absorb. But 0 is just a recipe for a different disaster.
I gave you a concrete list of people (real estate agents, furniture sales, monopoly owners, retiring home owners) that make tons of money off mass immigration. Your answer is "no they don't".
If you can point to single country in the world that has defeated the stagnation of an aging population, I'm all ears.
But if you are going to give me unrealistic counterfactuals, I might as well wish for a pony too.
Here's Canada's dependency ratios over time:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/82-229-x/2009001/demo/de...
And here's the global context:
https://data.oecd.org/pop/old-age-dependency-ratio.htm
We're in better shape that Italy and Japan. But absent immigration, we're in exactly the same boat. The baby boom has turned to baby bust.
Canada is currently having a spirited debate about levels. It's pretty obvious that 500k/a is higher than we can currently absorb. But 0 is just a recipe for a different disaster.
I gave you a concrete list of people (real estate agents, furniture sales, monopoly owners, retiring home owners) that make tons of money off mass immigration. Your answer is "no they don't".
If you can point to single country in the world that has defeated the stagnation of an aging population, I'm all ears.
But if you are going to give me unrealistic counterfactuals, I might as well wish for a pony too.
Here's Canada's dependency ratios over time:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/82-229-x/2009001/demo/de...
And here's the global context:
https://data.oecd.org/pop/old-age-dependency-ratio.htm
We're in better shape that Italy and Japan. But absent immigration, we're in exactly the same boat. The baby boom has turned to baby bust.
Just look at the crater where our 15-20 year-olds might be. Who exactly is going have babies in 10 years if not immigrants? We literally don't have the numbers to produce the next generation otherwise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada#/media/...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Canada#/media/...
Money, power. Canada has a lot of space and natural resource, with proper development it could support a much larger population. Politicians seem to have an outsized view of the significance of Canada on the international stage (e.g. trying for and failing to get a seat on the UN security council), when in reality we are small and not that important. Maybe they believe with a larger population, and thus economy, there would be more weight to throw around in international politics.
Just speculating but Canada has large land mass and potentially much more livable area given climate change. With a much larger population driving a ramped up economy, you could imagine Canada being a global player... Lots of ifs though.
We're cattle to be farmed. More heads of cattle = bigger farm. Quality of life, national identity, indigenous populations, etc all take second place to that except in lip service and politician platitudes.
> Growing our population to 100 million by 2100 would reduce the burden on government revenues to fund health care, old age security, and other services. It would also mean more skilled workers, innovation, and dynamism in the Canadian economy. 100 million by 2100 is not just a number. It’s a vision for the Canada we want to build for future generations.
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/why-100m
Not that I agree...
https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/why-100m
Not that I agree...
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/dv...
Every country with social security has to make sure there's enough young people to pay for old people.
Every country with social security has to make sure there's enough young people to pay for old people.
Sounds a bit like a ponzi scheme to me. Unless immigrants don't age?
I'm probably missing something but yeah I'm assuming it is to some degree. I don't understand how it would work unless we increase the retirement age (indefinitely) or remove old folks from the pool.
At this point I'm wondering WHAT IS a sustainable policy? Is there a country this all doesn't apply to that has figured things out somehow?
At this point I'm wondering WHAT IS a sustainable policy? Is there a country this all doesn't apply to that has figured things out somehow?
More consumers to consume
Population is power
I'm Canadian, immigrated as a child from Taiwan.
It's pretty scary that the powers that be want more immigration yet don't actually have a real implementation for it. This goes against everything engineers value, obviously for many of us here. The likely consequence is a lot of harm and disruption to people in the future.
I mean, I guess the real plan is the Canadian 1% exploiting a booming immigrant society.
It's pretty scary that the powers that be want more immigration yet don't actually have a real implementation for it. This goes against everything engineers value, obviously for many of us here. The likely consequence is a lot of harm and disruption to people in the future.
I mean, I guess the real plan is the Canadian 1% exploiting a booming immigrant society.
Feels like a ponzi scheme that even immigrants are starting to see.
Some of these institutions and services have been built up over, and by, generations. I think it's unfair to expect them to suddenly cater for a mass of new arrivals.
Work 70 hours. Always on. At Google they would give you stock options for that and you'd retire at 45.
The medical field runs on empathy. Imagine if the medical profession followed market capitalism. Cyberpunk 2077 Trauma Team.
The medical field runs on empathy. Imagine if the medical profession followed market capitalism. Cyberpunk 2077 Trauma Team.
Clearly you need to read more Ann Rand novels you hippy freak /s. It’s amazing to me how greedy people can not comprehend the idea that other people are motivated by things other than money.
On the plus side, iatrogenic causes of death will drop.
Don't worry, the Canadian government came up with a solution for that as well.
https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-health-toronto-7c63...
https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-health-toronto-7c63...
Is it fair to assume that access to doctors is even worse for immigrants than it is for citizens? Assuming that citizens are the country's top priority, like they usually are in most countries.
(I know some Canadian immigrants on the path to citizenship who are planning to have their first baby but have not been able to see a doctor for a year plus. Just curious if they're situation is worse than citizens, the same, or better.)
(I know some Canadian immigrants on the path to citizenship who are planning to have their first baby but have not been able to see a doctor for a year plus. Just curious if they're situation is worse than citizens, the same, or better.)
Depends on what kind of immigrant they are. For people who are permanent residents or otherwise have a legal work visa, I don't think it's much different.
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This high Immigration policy reminds me of China's campaign against the sparrow (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/03064220188002...) and its one child policy. Total disasters. The bureaucrats tried to solve one problem but ended up creating new problems that were far worse.
I feel like comparing this to the systemic killing of sparrows is not...correct.
The similarity is in not thinking about unintended consequences of govt policy. Solve one problem but create another (or more), which might even be worse. The cure being worse than the disease, as it were.
The Canadian govt sought to solve a demographics problem but have created a massive housing affordability problem. What with the climate in Canada, proper housing is a serious necessity.
The Canadian govt sought to solve a demographics problem but have created a massive housing affordability problem. What with the climate in Canada, proper housing is a serious necessity.