EU looking into new possible side-effects of mRNA Covid-19 shots(reuters.com)
reuters.com
EU looking into new possible side-effects of mRNA Covid-19 shots
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-drugs-regulator-looking-new-possible-side-effects-mrna-vaccines-2021-08-11/
103 コメント
Some effects may take a long time to develop.
Not related but a very slow biological process (prions): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27982991
Not related but a very slow biological process (prions): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27982991
You can always make a "you never know, something completely unforeseen may happe", and you will be right.
Of course, people tend to only make those arguments for things they don't really want to be done.
Of course, people tend to only make those arguments for things they don't really want to be done.
Not really. This has been the argument against pesticides and GMO foods for years, and it’s completely valid in hindsight.
GMO is a good example why such concerns are not always right. (See also: cell phone radiation.)
Are pesticides and GMO foods - two things which are reapplied on a frequent basis, relatively speaking - actually comparable to an instance in time where someone received one or two shots once? I think the most famous/deadly instances of drugs having side effects which discovered after mass deployment have generally been for medicines one ingests continuously, no?
I, as an untrained and uneducated individual, find it almost impossible to imagine a drug / technology / mechanism which could be applied "once" (i.e. only one time, even if over a few doses spaced out in time) that would not present any population effects after 1y / 1billion people that would then proceed to be even within one order of magnitude as deadly as COVID. Hell, two or three even...
I, as an untrained and uneducated individual, find it almost impossible to imagine a drug / technology / mechanism which could be applied "once" (i.e. only one time, even if over a few doses spaced out in time) that would not present any population effects after 1y / 1billion people that would then proceed to be even within one order of magnitude as deadly as COVID. Hell, two or three even...
1) Prions: kuru has asymptomatic incubation period 10-13 years; 2) various carcinogens, it takes time for the cancer to develop.
Prions are an obvious exception, but I don't think I agree with carcinogens. Perhaps I'm unaware. Can you point to any carcinogen which a single exposure to would result in a >0.05% death rate in the exposed population?
I don't think people who really wanted pesticides and GMO foods made those arguments.
Most vaccine side effects do take a long time to develop, and as a result are concluded to be plain ol’ “bad luck” health problems
So, clearly you're just making a nitpicky point about whether we can say there are "no side effects" and ignoring context. But the context here is a vaccine against a very dangerous disease, and the need to make a risk analysis decision as to whether to use it.
Broadly: you seem to be implying that you think a ~0.5% fatality rate just "takes a long time to develop". Even if you posit 100% infections in the US (laughably wrong given the trajectory of outbreak, but whatever), you have to accept an IFR almost 0.2%.
Given the ~170M Americans already vaccinated, any side effect worth discussing would need to be at least as bad as killing 334000 of them. And needless no vaccine in history, maybe no widely prescribed drug of any kind, has turned up a long tail side effect analysis like that. Remember when everyone lost their shit about Vioxx? Best estimates are that 38k people died; an order of magnitude lower.
Broadly: you seem to be implying that you think a ~0.5% fatality rate just "takes a long time to develop". Even if you posit 100% infections in the US (laughably wrong given the trajectory of outbreak, but whatever), you have to accept an IFR almost 0.2%.
Given the ~170M Americans already vaccinated, any side effect worth discussing would need to be at least as bad as killing 334000 of them. And needless no vaccine in history, maybe no widely prescribed drug of any kind, has turned up a long tail side effect analysis like that. Remember when everyone lost their shit about Vioxx? Best estimates are that 38k people died; an order of magnitude lower.
> against a very dangerous disease
Ebola or smallpox are very dangerous disease. COVID has much lower negative impact on lives/health, it is more like flu or risk of stroke, very dangerous only for specific subpopulations, mostly old / unhealthy people with preexisting conditions.
Ebola or smallpox are very dangerous disease. COVID has much lower negative impact on lives/health, it is more like flu or risk of stroke, very dangerous only for specific subpopulations, mostly old / unhealthy people with preexisting conditions.
Ebola spreads poorly and never achieved anything larger than a regional outbreak (but yes, it's very dangerous). Smallpox is extinct.
Covid is a pandemic, literally killing millions of people. You don't think that's relevant to a discussion about vaccination policy?
BTW: that "smallpox" idea you threw out? Give you two guesses as to how it was eradicated.
Covid is a pandemic, literally killing millions of people. You don't think that's relevant to a discussion about vaccination policy?
BTW: that "smallpox" idea you threw out? Give you two guesses as to how it was eradicated.
You said it is very dangerous, but I say it is not in that category. It is very dangerous to specific subpopulations, that's it.
It is "very dangerous" in that it's killing millions of people and will probably kill millions more if we don't get people to take their vaccines. Better?
Again, imagine if people successfully deployed your logic against the smallpox vaccine. We'd still be getting sick with smallpox.
Again, imagine if people successfully deployed your logic against the smallpox vaccine. We'd still be getting sick with smallpox.
Yes that's slightly better. However millions may still die even with vaccinations, because most of the world does not have access to them and they don't have adequate health care. Also, with time as mutations occur, vaccines will get less efficient.
You got confused with the smallpox. I mentioned smallpox as an example of what COVID isn't. Not every disease warrants mass vaccination, and this depends also on efficacy of the vaccine.
COVID may warrant it for specific subpopulations. But we don't have good enough vaccines yet to eradicate COVID. "Getting rid of COVID via vaccines", "vaccines is the only way" is just fantasy/propaganda tactic to increase vaccinations.
You got confused with the smallpox. I mentioned smallpox as an example of what COVID isn't. Not every disease warrants mass vaccination, and this depends also on efficacy of the vaccine.
COVID may warrant it for specific subpopulations. But we don't have good enough vaccines yet to eradicate COVID. "Getting rid of COVID via vaccines", "vaccines is the only way" is just fantasy/propaganda tactic to increase vaccinations.
“Unhealthy people” is a very large group. For example, obesity is considered an unhealthy state. 42.5% of the US population is obese.
If obesity is a contributing problem, I wonder if there could be a non-vaccine solution to obesity? Hmm, maybe it has something to do with the quantity and type of calories consumed.
People are free to eat themselves into metabolic destruction just as people are free to partake or not partake in the emergency use authorization vaccine experiments.
People are free to eat themselves into metabolic destruction just as people are free to partake or not partake in the emergency use authorization vaccine experiments.
People are free to partake or not partake… no one is forcing people to get vaccinated, there is always an alternative. A restaurant is requiring patrons to be vaccinated? Don’t go there if you are not. Your job is requiring prove of vaccination? Quit the job.
Yes technically you are correct, but COVID does not care about technical definition of obesity. Obese is a very general term, borderline obese/overweight person with otherwise healthy body has much better chances than someone with morbid obesity or diabetes or heart/vascular condition.
Sure, I agree that obesity is not a great indicator. I just used it to illustrate that an unhealthy population can be very large. Another example: 6.5% of Americans are morbidly obese, which I would guess can have an effect on the severity of Covid symptoms. That’s already 20 million people. And that’s just one factor. How many people have heart problems, lung problems, etc?
Yes, it's still a big part of the population. I think getting vaccinated makes a lot of sense in that group, but of course even there, it has to be informed personal decision.
Smoking cigarettes is harmless.... nobody gets sick after smoking for a year
thalidomide is harmless... "On October 1, 1957, the company launched thalidomide and began marketing it under the trade name Contergan. It was proclaimed a "wonder drug" for insomnia, coughs, colds and headaches... In late 1959, it was noticed that peripheral neuritis developed in patients who took the drug over a period of time, and it was only after this point that thalidomide ceased to be provided over the counter. ...Despite the side effects, thalidomide was sold in pharmacies in Canada until 1962." [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide]
the industry doesn't turn on a dime due to adverse effects when there is money to be made
thalidomide is harmless... "On October 1, 1957, the company launched thalidomide and began marketing it under the trade name Contergan. It was proclaimed a "wonder drug" for insomnia, coughs, colds and headaches... In late 1959, it was noticed that peripheral neuritis developed in patients who took the drug over a period of time, and it was only after this point that thalidomide ceased to be provided over the counter. ...Despite the side effects, thalidomide was sold in pharmacies in Canada until 1962." [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide]
the industry doesn't turn on a dime due to adverse effects when there is money to be made
True but the same goes for covid itself. In fact we already know of long covid. Which we still don't know much about. We don't even know if it ever goes away. So there's a known long-term effect already.
The vaccines are a lot better understood than the virus. We don't know of any long-term issues so far.
It's still a much safer bet to get the vaccine IMO. And it will also help with the societal problem around the covid measures. We can't keep going on lockdowns for years to come. It will destroy the economy which has its own associated health risks.
The vaccines are a lot better understood than the virus. We don't know of any long-term issues so far.
It's still a much safer bet to get the vaccine IMO. And it will also help with the societal problem around the covid measures. We can't keep going on lockdowns for years to come. It will destroy the economy which has its own associated health risks.
These vaccines are not going to solve societal problems; they do not prevent spreading, and efficiency decreases as the virus mutates. COVID measures will stop when critical body of people finally realizes they are inefficient/too costly and not necessary.
Interesting study from Carnegie Mellon and Pitt found that the most vaccine "hesitant" group are people with PhDs and they are the only group that has actually increased in hesitancy to get the shot over the last few months
https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/news/news-stories/2021/july/cov...
https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/news/news-stories/2021/july/cov...
Hah, guess who can't read properly...
No, their hesitancy didn't increase, every other group's decreased, making the hesitancy percentage among PhDs (since it remained mostly constant) to be the highest by May.
To put it in 5th grader terms, if Alan had $30, Beth had $20 and Charlie had $15 at the beginning of the year, and Alan"s and Beth's savings decreased to $13 and $5 but Charlie's only decreased to $14 by May, Charlie is now the richest of the group.
No, their hesitancy didn't increase, every other group's decreased, making the hesitancy percentage among PhDs (since it remained mostly constant) to be the highest by May.
To put it in 5th grader terms, if Alan had $30, Beth had $20 and Charlie had $15 at the beginning of the year, and Alan"s and Beth's savings decreased to $13 and $5 but Charlie's only decreased to $14 by May, Charlie is now the richest of the group.
You're going to get downvoted into oblivion but as a PhD, who has also worked in manufacturing, I have a number of reasons to remain skeptical about the vaccines. I won't repeat them here because everyone has pretty much made up their mind one way or the other.
For what it's worth, I did end up getting vaccinated recently (J&J, not mRNA-based) after quite a few unpleasant conversations with my spouse that I was endangering our children on the presumption that unvaccinated people more easily spread the virus. This assertion has been thrown into doubt, however, by the CDC's Barnstable study [1] suggesting viral numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated are similar (among people tested). Consequently, I'm just staying home these days.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm
For what it's worth, I did end up getting vaccinated recently (J&J, not mRNA-based) after quite a few unpleasant conversations with my spouse that I was endangering our children on the presumption that unvaccinated people more easily spread the virus. This assertion has been thrown into doubt, however, by the CDC's Barnstable study [1] suggesting viral numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated are similar (among people tested). Consequently, I'm just staying home these days.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm
I'm sorry your family had to go through that. Your wife meant well, but I think overreacted and wasn't very rational. Young children are the most resilient group against COVID, even without vaccination. Most of them don't even have symptoms.
> This assertion has been thrown into doubt, however, by the CDC's Barnstable study [1] suggesting viral numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated are similar
I'm a little horrified that you cite your academic credentials and then misread that conclusion so badly. Viral load and infectiousness are equivalent between vaccinated and unvaccinated INFECTED PEOPLE in that study, not overall. The vaccinated are, obviously, much less likely to get sick in the first place.
Your wife was right and you were wrong, basically.
I'm a little horrified that you cite your academic credentials and then misread that conclusion so badly. Viral load and infectiousness are equivalent between vaccinated and unvaccinated INFECTED PEOPLE in that study, not overall. The vaccinated are, obviously, much less likely to get sick in the first place.
Your wife was right and you were wrong, basically.
Yes much less likely sick, but that by itself does not mean much less likely getting infected. The recent data from U.S. and Israel show that vaccinated people get infected easily too.
That's just wrong. Why do people keep claiming this? Consensus immunity for Pfizer against delta is still in the 60-80% range, which while less than the 95% measured against earlier variants is vastly higher than the unvaccinated. (Though to be fair this is hard to measure against the confounding background that the vaccinated tend to be better at other mitigation strategies too.)
Even the Israel data you cite, which is an outlier, measured 39% effectiveness, which is STILL twice as good as being unvaccinated.
Even the Israel data you cite, which is an outlier, measured 39% effectiveness, which is STILL twice as good as being unvaccinated.
Those 80% and higher efficacies are against symptomatic COVID and hospitalization. Not against getting infected and getting infectious. This efficacy was high initially, but is reported to be decreasing, and currently at 40% for Pfizer [1]:
[1] https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-de...
[1] https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-de...
That study is still an outlier. But I repeat, because you don't seem to understand the point: even if it's that low, and even if transmissibility is completely unaffected, it means that an unvaccinated person will spread TWICE AS MANY CASES as a vaccinated one. That's the difference between a pandemic and a contained endemic disease right there.
Get. Your. Vaccine.
Get. Your. Vaccine.
40% efficacy for preventing spreading is quite poor. There are other strategies of similar or better efficacy for preventing spreading like limiting contact with people, using masks, vitamin D, being on ivermectin. If you were a marketing department of a pharma company selling vaccines for preventing spreading, you would not be very convincing.
Only part of the story
> Generally, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was higher among young (ages 18-24), non-Asian people, and less educated (≤ high school diploma) adults, and those with PhDs, with a history of a positive COVID-19 test, not worried about serious illness from COVID-19 and living in regions with greater support to Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
> Generally, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was higher among young (ages 18-24), non-Asian people, and less educated (≤ high school diploma) adults, and those with PhDs, with a history of a positive COVID-19 test, not worried about serious illness from COVID-19 and living in regions with greater support to Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
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As others are pointing out, this is a wild misreading of a study that actually showed all education levels becoming less hesitant. PhD's quite obviously held constant modulo sampling error, and that's exactly how it's described in the paper:
The relevant chart is on page 27 of the paper here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.20.21260795v...
Also note that they call out the weird results with PhD's as an outlier without an explanation (other education metrics show less hesitancy with more education monotonically), and call for further research.
To wit: you're spinning like crazy here trying to make this data say something its authors expressly disclaim.
The relevant chart is on page 27 of the paper here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.20.21260795v...
Also note that they call out the weird results with PhD's as an outlier without an explanation (other education metrics show less hesitancy with more education monotonically), and call for further research.
To wit: you're spinning like crazy here trying to make this data say something its authors expressly disclaim.
my wife has a phd in a relevant field, and only just got her first dose last week. she still is not sure if it was a good idea or not.
I don’t believe you. Gonna check your comment history - guessing you take the contrarian position on every single covid-related topic.
Edit: yep, lol. To clarify,I don’t think your wife does not have a phd in some field related to pharmaceuticals, I think the two of you are hesitant because you are socially conservative and/or general covid contrarians.
Edit: yep, lol. To clarify,I don’t think your wife does not have a phd in some field related to pharmaceuticals, I think the two of you are hesitant because you are socially conservative and/or general covid contrarians.
I’m not worried about the immediate side effects. I’m 25. I’m worried about the side effects that don’t show for 20+ years.
I’ve gotten COVID so I don’t feel like I need the vaccine. I have a REAL problem with mandatory vaccination for a virus I’ve already gotten and would gladly contract again if it means I get to retain my agency.
I’ve gotten COVID so I don’t feel like I need the vaccine. I have a REAL problem with mandatory vaccination for a virus I’ve already gotten and would gladly contract again if it means I get to retain my agency.
But you're not worried about the side effects of COVID that will develop over 20+ years?
It's not like COVID is any safer or well-understood. This is a false dichotomy.
It's not like COVID is any safer or well-understood. This is a false dichotomy.
I never said I wasn’t worried about the side effects of getting COVID in 20 years.
I didn’t have a choice to get COVID, I DO have a choice to not get the vaccine.
I didn’t have a choice to get COVID, I DO have a choice to not get the vaccine.
Exactly, somehow this simple fact eludes many vaccinators on HN.
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COVID doesn’t get to bypass all safety barriers in your
body
It does, that's why it's making people sick and in many cases dead.
You already got COVID, so you're already stuck with whatever long-term side effects there are from COVID infection and probably have some immunity already, so I understand your desire to not take additional risk by getting the vaccine.
But for someone who has not yet had COVID, why would you suggest they should be uniquely concerned about hypothetical unknown long-term side effects from the vaccine, and not COVID itself?
But for someone who has not yet had COVID, why would you suggest they should be uniquely concerned about hypothetical unknown long-term side effects from the vaccine, and not COVID itself?
I never suggested someone else should be uniquely concerned about the vaccine—be concerned about ALL the unknowns! Lol
That being said, my biggest problem is the proposed loss of agency. Let me be the master of my fate.
That being said, my biggest problem is the proposed loss of agency. Let me be the master of my fate.
We can't be master of our fates, because if there is fate, it's determined. But we can decide to think and act as free persons nevertheless. We should ignore nonsensical / non-constitutional edicts and go on with our lives.
I wonder how much society has to tolerate that. You want to live in society? Well, sorry, that involves some loss of agency. You want to be the master? Then why is there an entitlement that the grocery store, etc, has to serve you?
I think you’re intentionally misinterpreting my statement.
Since we know the vaccine doesn’t prevent you from contracting or spreading the virus—it should not be mandated. Period. If this actually had to do with people’s safety, an argument COULD be made. But that’s not the case, so I think it’s preposterous that would should be forced to take a vaccine that’s solely for one’s “own good”.
As an aside, any group-think situation where people start being concerned about “my own safety” is not an experiment I’d like to be a part of.
Since we know the vaccine doesn’t prevent you from contracting or spreading the virus—it should not be mandated. Period. If this actually had to do with people’s safety, an argument COULD be made. But that’s not the case, so I think it’s preposterous that would should be forced to take a vaccine that’s solely for one’s “own good”.
As an aside, any group-think situation where people start being concerned about “my own safety” is not an experiment I’d like to be a part of.
The vaccination gives better protection against ending up in ICU, if we believe the literature. You want agency, do you also volunteer not to occupy an ICU bed (or even a hospital bed) in case you get Covid? Seems very selfish to demand the hospital service (at the end of the day, provided by others in society, e.g. others who went to medical school so we don't have to learn medicine/how to intubate ourselves) but refuse to contribute to protecting it (e.g. by making sure hospital beds are available for those who need it).
And how am I misinterpreting your comment?
And how am I misinterpreting your comment?
These attempts at guilt-tripping of people with different opinions on society COVID strategy / personal health choices are disgusting and tiresome. You are not their doctor, and even doctor has to respect patients decision.
Vaccines are not the only possible way to behave responsibly, there are several strategies, let people find and follow their own. It's better even for the society, in case the vaccines turn out to not be the silver bullet the media and chinless spivs in governments told us (which it seems is getting more likely these days).
Vaccines are not the only possible way to behave responsibly, there are several strategies, let people find and follow their own. It's better even for the society, in case the vaccines turn out to not be the silver bullet the media and chinless spivs in governments told us (which it seems is getting more likely these days).
Isn't there a term when in an argument the other party pivots to "Your behavior is disgusting and tiresome!" instead of arguing the topic at hand?
We're just discussing "I want my agency!" vs "You still want to be a part of society right?" around here.
For someone who regards himself to have an independent streak, I'm interestingly agreeing quite a lot with the government full of "chinless spivs" about this. If they turn out to be wrong about the vaccine, well, there'll be hell to pay. Or maybe many of the vaccinated will think "I decided, I'll live with the consequences"?
We're just discussing "I want my agency!" vs "You still want to be a part of society right?" around here.
For someone who regards himself to have an independent streak, I'm interestingly agreeing quite a lot with the government full of "chinless spivs" about this. If they turn out to be wrong about the vaccine, well, there'll be hell to pay. Or maybe many of the vaccinated will think "I decided, I'll live with the consequences"?
Did you provide arguments for why "person being a part of society" means or implies they have to submit and receive the vaccine?
No. You claimed that not submitting to the vax agenda makes them a selfish person who refuses to contribute. Without any evidence.
You were talking down and guilt-tripping people who express concern, arguments or opinions in opposition to yours.
No. You claimed that not submitting to the vax agenda makes them a selfish person who refuses to contribute. Without any evidence.
You were talking down and guilt-tripping people who express concern, arguments or opinions in opposition to yours.
Being 25, excellent physical condition, having already gotten over COVID once with little more than a runny nose—absolutely. If you said all I had to do was agree in-writing, to not occupy an ICU bed in order to avoid having this vaccine forced upon me I’d do it in a heartbeat. But see that’s the kind of sensical thinking that our government can’t seem to comprehend, instead they’d rather just cut off people’s access to public transportation and restaurants.
I believe your comment about losing agency by wanting to be in society was a misinterpretation. My indication was clearly that agency == not taking the vaccine in this case. I realize that by participating in society I can’t run around with an AK-47 shooting whomever I please—while technically that IS a loss of agency that’s clear not the kind of agency I was talking about. I was talking about the benign agency to simply say “No” to the largest medical experiment in recent memory—literally modifying the way our DNA replicated as a vaccine delivery system.
There has always been inherent risk in the freedom to live as one chooses. But that I’ll happily assume that risk, and I’ll take full responsibility for the consequences of my choices.
I believe your comment about losing agency by wanting to be in society was a misinterpretation. My indication was clearly that agency == not taking the vaccine in this case. I realize that by participating in society I can’t run around with an AK-47 shooting whomever I please—while technically that IS a loss of agency that’s clear not the kind of agency I was talking about. I was talking about the benign agency to simply say “No” to the largest medical experiment in recent memory—literally modifying the way our DNA replicated as a vaccine delivery system.
There has always been inherent risk in the freedom to live as one chooses. But that I’ll happily assume that risk, and I’ll take full responsibility for the consequences of my choices.
People are downvoting you because this reality is too scary for them to confront, so they’d rather plug their ears
Yeah I know there are side effects for many people. For me the second time it felt a bit like I ran into a door handle at the spot where I got the jab. Like a minor bruise. That was all. But this is anecdotal of course. Some people will get it worse. They always said side effects would be possible for some people. There's also a reason we all have to wait 15 minutes before leaving. The possible allergy is another anticipated side-effect.
If these were serious and common however, really the hospitals would be so busy by now taking care of all of them. The number of people that got the vaccine here in europe in the space of the last few months is enormous. We started much later than the US but have caught up in a really short time. And with the exception of the UK most countries have used mostly mRNA types and very little AstraZeneca. As a result we had (and probably still have) higher numbers going through vaccination per month than the US.
Even the tiniest percentage of serious complications would have been flooding the hospitals which were already at high pressure due to covid.
If these were serious and common however, really the hospitals would be so busy by now taking care of all of them. The number of people that got the vaccine here in europe in the space of the last few months is enormous. We started much later than the US but have caught up in a really short time. And with the exception of the UK most countries have used mostly mRNA types and very little AstraZeneca. As a result we had (and probably still have) higher numbers going through vaccination per month than the US.
Even the tiniest percentage of serious complications would have been flooding the hospitals which were already at high pressure due to covid.
Like any other vaccine, I weighed the risk vs benefit and took the odds and got vaccinated. I'm for vaccination. I'm not for forcing vaccines upon a population who are hesitant for their own reasons for something that so far, is a relatively mid-level virus. If this were the plague, I'd want more stringent enforcement, given the same vaccine odds.
That said, I hope Twitter et al don't knee jerk react-to this and block discussion just because it would counter their preferred narrative.
That said, I hope Twitter et al don't knee jerk react-to this and block discussion just because it would counter their preferred narrative.
I remember quite a few SARS and swine-flu scares over the past few decades - the disease would be quite destructive but small in scale. We aren't at "bring out your dead" levels yet but we have been living primarily in lockdowns for the past year and a half. If this doesn't qualify as a plague we should take seriously and address I'm rather afraid what would actually reach that level for you.
if covid was truly frightening we wouldn't need government mandates forcing people to take it seriously
People aren't good at estimating danger that's indirect. I can provide examples.
> Like any other vaccine
or drugs in general. Just look at adverse effects of Ibuprofen. Common drug, but unlike vaccines, it is not used for whole population at once. So adverse effects even if more common are not that visible.
or drugs in general. Just look at adverse effects of Ibuprofen. Common drug, but unlike vaccines, it is not used for whole population at once. So adverse effects even if more common are not that visible.
Statistically, these are low risk. But for those who were injured or died, that's no consolation. The question is how can we screen those small number of people who are more likely to be vaccine injured? We need more funding to study those who were injured, and to perform autopsies of those few who died soon after vaccination.
You can see the list of VAERS (caveat lector) adverse events by age group, for the specific lot number on a vaccine card. One vaccine lot number can be distributed across multiple geographical regions. To run the query, replace 123456 at the end of the URL below, with the lot number from a vaccine card. More granular results can be found via the query wizard.
https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/findfield.php?TABLE=ON&GROUP1=...
Public VAERS is about 50% US vs foreign data. There are more accurate, private databases on vaccine injuries, in the US and other countries. You can search VAERS for specific symptoms and the entire raw database can be downloaded for offline analysis.
You can see the list of VAERS (caveat lector) adverse events by age group, for the specific lot number on a vaccine card. One vaccine lot number can be distributed across multiple geographical regions. To run the query, replace 123456 at the end of the URL below, with the lot number from a vaccine card. More granular results can be found via the query wizard.
https://medalerts.org/vaersdb/findfield.php?TABLE=ON&GROUP1=...
Public VAERS is about 50% US vs foreign data. There are more accurate, private databases on vaccine injuries, in the US and other countries. You can search VAERS for specific symptoms and the entire raw database can be downloaded for offline analysis.
The source article states that the side effects at issue are:
"Erythema multiforme, a form of allergic skin reaction; glomerulonephritis or kidney inflammation; and nephrotic syndrome, a renal disorder characterised by heavy urinary protein losses, are being studied by the safety committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), according to the regulator."
I'm not a nephrologist, nor am I conversant in kidney disorders so I don't know off the top of my head how serious this might be. Hopefully not too serious.
"Erythema multiforme, a form of allergic skin reaction; glomerulonephritis or kidney inflammation; and nephrotic syndrome, a renal disorder characterised by heavy urinary protein losses, are being studied by the safety committee of the European Medicines Agency (EMA), according to the regulator."
I'm not a nephrologist, nor am I conversant in kidney disorders so I don't know off the top of my head how serious this might be. Hopefully not too serious.
I have some kidney problems and I researched urology and nephrology a little bit and I can tell this is most probably acute kidney inflammation as a immune system's response to mRNA vaccine.
It is not known to me why some people get it or not get it. Maybe it is genetics maybe there are underlying kidney conditions just like I have.
Acute kidney disease can be serious if it is high grade inflammation which can damage kidneys and then you will probably be given Corticosteroid treatment to calm down the inflammation. But if it is low grade it should go away within 1 month.
It is not known to me why some people get it or not get it. Maybe it is genetics maybe there are underlying kidney conditions just like I have.
Acute kidney disease can be serious if it is high grade inflammation which can damage kidneys and then you will probably be given Corticosteroid treatment to calm down the inflammation. But if it is low grade it should go away within 1 month.
Interesting how people are using the lack of evidence as form of conclusion on your hypothesis in the comments. Guess what? Your spouse is cheating on you. Even though there is no evidence suggesting that is the case, can your spouse provide evidence that s/he’s not cheating on you? How is this a coherent argument.
I got my first shot of Comirnaty (Pfizer-Biontech) yesterday, and would do it again 100 times if needed. I will also have my 2nd dose in early September because although I got Covid (2 times, fist one symptomatic), my last positive swab was more than 6 months ago, so they assume my antibodies ratio dropped too much in the meantime to be safe with a single dose.
Actually I feel safe for myself because the 2nd time I tested positive was hospitalized for nearly 2 months in a Covid ward after a road accident and was literally surrounded by people with the virus. I'm confident that should I catch it again it will be asymptomatic like the 2nd time, but what about other people? How could I live knowing that I brought it to someone because I was so stupid to avoid the vaccination? I'm shocked of the number of people I see who only think along the lines of "I'm safe, I already got it/I'm young" etc. They seem to disregard completely their effect on others. For fuck's sake, people walk around, they move, and bring what they have along with them when they meet others. Is it so hard to get that? I've seen right in front of my face people die with the virus, so I welcome the shots.
About side effects, have anti vaxers ever read any medicines leaflets? One can get nasty side effects with a lot of them. I already wrote about an experience of mine, and here's another: very recently had to halve the dosage of Doxazosin I use to keep blood pressure down because during the last days I was developing an urinary tract infection, and probably will stop taking it the next days. Yes, that one is a side effect, even a pretty common one, of an otherwise normal and safe cure against high blood pressure. And by common side effects, we're talking about 1% to 10%, not one in a hundred thousands or less.
Covid19 vaccines rare side effects are making the news just because there is someone ready to count them on live TV and social media for their own political gain, otherwise they would slip under the radar, just like a lot of other medicines side effects already do since forever, only to be withdrawn from the market should those side effects ratio reach a dangerous level.
As for my shot, felt nothing at all during all yesterday, while today I woke up with a small bump on my left arm where I got the shot and it hurts mildly only if I touch it, otherwise aside feeling weaker than usual no problems at all.
Actually I feel safe for myself because the 2nd time I tested positive was hospitalized for nearly 2 months in a Covid ward after a road accident and was literally surrounded by people with the virus. I'm confident that should I catch it again it will be asymptomatic like the 2nd time, but what about other people? How could I live knowing that I brought it to someone because I was so stupid to avoid the vaccination? I'm shocked of the number of people I see who only think along the lines of "I'm safe, I already got it/I'm young" etc. They seem to disregard completely their effect on others. For fuck's sake, people walk around, they move, and bring what they have along with them when they meet others. Is it so hard to get that? I've seen right in front of my face people die with the virus, so I welcome the shots.
About side effects, have anti vaxers ever read any medicines leaflets? One can get nasty side effects with a lot of them. I already wrote about an experience of mine, and here's another: very recently had to halve the dosage of Doxazosin I use to keep blood pressure down because during the last days I was developing an urinary tract infection, and probably will stop taking it the next days. Yes, that one is a side effect, even a pretty common one, of an otherwise normal and safe cure against high blood pressure. And by common side effects, we're talking about 1% to 10%, not one in a hundred thousands or less.
Covid19 vaccines rare side effects are making the news just because there is someone ready to count them on live TV and social media for their own political gain, otherwise they would slip under the radar, just like a lot of other medicines side effects already do since forever, only to be withdrawn from the market should those side effects ratio reach a dangerous level.
As for my shot, felt nothing at all during all yesterday, while today I woke up with a small bump on my left arm where I got the shot and it hurts mildly only if I touch it, otherwise aside feeling weaker than usual no problems at all.
> How could I live knowing that I brought it to someone because I was so stupid to avoid the vaccination?
First, you would never know, the virus is out there and some people get COVID symptoms days after getting infected.
Second, by vaccinating you are not preventing infecting other people. You are increasing your chances that when you get COVID it won't be very bad
If you really can't sleep because you can still infect someone, I think you have to self-isolate till the end of your life. In space-suit preferably.
First, you would never know, the virus is out there and some people get COVID symptoms days after getting infected.
Second, by vaccinating you are not preventing infecting other people. You are increasing your chances that when you get COVID it won't be very bad
If you really can't sleep because you can still infect someone, I think you have to self-isolate till the end of your life. In space-suit preferably.
What are long term side effects only time can and will tell.
The primary one is not being dead from COVID - which is indeed quite a serious side effect.
But that's also a side effect for the majority of people who contract COVID, no?
Disingenuous argument, no? Less people will die from the vaccines, by a very large margin.
No. The disingenuous argument is calling not dying a "side effect from the vaccine".
I'm confused as to what you are arguing. The concept is just an application of statistics. Less people will die from the broad application of the vaccine vs. not, so we choose to vaccinate.
OPs argument heavily suggested the only way to not die of COVID was to get the vaccine. Which is demonstrably false.
If you mean 50%+ as majority then yes. But a nonvaccinated death rate around 2-10% worldwide compared to 0.1% of the US vaccinated population getting covid to begin with, that’s a huge difference.
The case fatality rate has been quoted to be much lower than that - 2% in bad cases (health care system failure) and 0.5% in more well managed situations.
Would love to see the numbers of 0.5%. Even in the US and with vaccines rolled out, we just skimmed 2% [1]
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
Hm yeah ok, we should not look at case fatality rate when the true number of cases is so uncertain. I think it's more about what the actual risk of death is if you get covid, which is lower than this case fatality rate.
For example BSE[0] is an infectious disease believed to be due to a misfolded protein, known as a prion. The time between infection and onset of symptoms is four to five years. So if you got "infected" by prion 4–5 years after you will notice first symptoms and then you will die within weeks to months. There is no treatment for this disease.
In the context of mRNA vaccine if you feel good 1 month after getting the mRNA vaccine or if you feel okay after 1 year means nothing because biological processes are slow but when they kick in they hit hard.
Edit: I gave the example with cows a human variant is Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease and onset of symptoms can happen years to decades after exposure. Average life expectancy following the onset of symptoms is 13 months. [1]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Ja...
In the context of mRNA vaccine if you feel good 1 month after getting the mRNA vaccine or if you feel okay after 1 year means nothing because biological processes are slow but when they kick in they hit hard.
Edit: I gave the example with cows a human variant is Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease and onset of symptoms can happen years to decades after exposure. Average life expectancy following the onset of symptoms is 13 months. [1]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Ja...
Such an utterly ridiculous argument. The processes that occur when vaccinated with an MRNA vaccine are very well understood. This is not something that they just started researching. You don’t understand it, but it’s a rather simple thing to the scientists who designed these vaccines. My suggestion to you - when you find yourself afraid of the dark, turn on a light. The genesis of your fear is just the knowledge you lack.
This isn’t true. With a large enough sample size almost all long-term effects become short-term.
Very few long-term diseases are long-term because of a deterministic countdown. Rather, they’re the result of a small but long-lived cumulative probability. The cancer that takes twenty years to show up is caused by the persistent 0.17% chance of a malignant tumor every month.
But the upshot is that if you start with a sample size of 100,000 people, the cancer risk will be glaringly obvious in the first month.
Very few long-term diseases are long-term because of a deterministic countdown. Rather, they’re the result of a small but long-lived cumulative probability. The cancer that takes twenty years to show up is caused by the persistent 0.17% chance of a malignant tumor every month.
But the upshot is that if you start with a sample size of 100,000 people, the cancer risk will be glaringly obvious in the first month.
No, long term means 5,10 years and it cannot become short term because it takes 5 years (from the start of vaccination) to observe effects in people vaccinated for 5 years and it takes 10 years to observe effects in people vaccinated for 10 years.
This is why we immediately knew Asbestos was cancerous... oh wait.
a) we didn't know that because people smoked and had coal fires in their houses so everyone had cancer, and b) we did know but BigCo conspired with government to cover up and deny.
I assume people remember that damn near everything that can be injected or applied has measurable yet small side effects. They do clinical or safety trials for meds and cosmetics to measure them, and many are far higher than COVID vaccines. Many physical activities have significant yet rare risks, childbirth or pregnancy for example. But you can also buy stuff that is not tested, which means you have no real idea of the contents or risks.
The goal now should be to keep the hospital beds available for other things, the reefer trucks doing other things and to remove the naive hosts so that COVID turns into a seasonal concern rather than a pandemic. This will require lots more vaccination, or just the willingness to plow under those whose immune system is too weak or too strong. And those in foreign lands are people also, and they can board planes…
The goal now should be to keep the hospital beds available for other things, the reefer trucks doing other things and to remove the naive hosts so that COVID turns into a seasonal concern rather than a pandemic. This will require lots more vaccination, or just the willingness to plow under those whose immune system is too weak or too strong. And those in foreign lands are people also, and they can board planes…
I’m not a believer in randomized control testing as I am in theoretical science. I believe side effects should be evident before administration simply based on known theory of ingredients within.
It’s possible that we don’t know the ingredients well enough to formulate a theory about what could happen. Here is where RCT is useful.
Otherwise what ingredients do these vax have that could possibly cause these reactions?
I’m thinking the fats and lipids the mRNA is put with are aminos that cause different affects in people. The cynic inside believes they are to sterilize people. I got vax’d but still I want to know.
It’s possible that we don’t know the ingredients well enough to formulate a theory about what could happen. Here is where RCT is useful.
Otherwise what ingredients do these vax have that could possibly cause these reactions?
I’m thinking the fats and lipids the mRNA is put with are aminos that cause different affects in people. The cynic inside believes they are to sterilize people. I got vax’d but still I want to know.
Had a slight rash down my body after the 2nd vaccination shot, it was mild and faded after a couple days. Interesting to hear that rashes are just now being reported.
Not to dismiss this, but rashes are an absolutely routine allergy symptom. I don't have the Pfizer or Moderna warning sheets handy but I can't imagine they don't have this listed. It's not common, because allergic reactions aren't, but they're routine enough to be seen in a bunch of patients. And we've given billions of doses of these things now.
You had a mild allergic reaction. I mean, yeah, that's a "side effect", but not in the sense that all the hysterics here are trying to evoke.
You had a mild allergic reaction. I mean, yeah, that's a "side effect", but not in the sense that all the hysterics here are trying to evoke.
To be clear these side-effects are likely caused by the host immunological response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as opposed to "bad" or contaminated vaccines.
One reason children may be more prone to side effects such as heart inflammation is because they are likely to already have naturally acquired immunity, thus the immune response induced by a highly effective vaccine may be 'overwhelming' [5].
> More than half of the cases reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) after people had received their second dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines were in people between the ages of 12 and 24, the CDC said. Those age groups accounted for less than 9% of doses administered. [1]
> In this small case series study, myocarditis was diagnosed in 15 children after COVID-19 vaccination, most commonly in boys after the second dose. In this case series, in short-term follow-up, patients were mildly affected. The long-term risks associated with postvaccination myocarditis remain unknown. [2]
> Acute myocarditis with intense systemic inflammation and atypical Kawasaki disease is an emerging severe pediatric disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. A delayed and inappropriate host immunological response is suspected. [3]
> It should be appreciated that myocardial inflammation alone by macrophages and T cells can be seen in noninfectious deaths and COVID-19 cases, but the extent of each is different, and in neither case do such findings represent clinically relevant myocarditis. [4]
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/cdc-heart-inflammation-case...
[2] Association of Myocarditis With BNT162b2 Messenger RNA COVID-19 Vaccine in a Case Series of Children https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...
[3] Acute myocarditis and multisystem inflammatory emerging disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection in critically ill children https://annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com/articles/10.1...
[4] Pathological Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 as a Cause of Myocarditis https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7816957/
[5] Antibody responses to the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01325-6
One reason children may be more prone to side effects such as heart inflammation is because they are likely to already have naturally acquired immunity, thus the immune response induced by a highly effective vaccine may be 'overwhelming' [5].
> More than half of the cases reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) after people had received their second dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines were in people between the ages of 12 and 24, the CDC said. Those age groups accounted for less than 9% of doses administered. [1]
> In this small case series study, myocarditis was diagnosed in 15 children after COVID-19 vaccination, most commonly in boys after the second dose. In this case series, in short-term follow-up, patients were mildly affected. The long-term risks associated with postvaccination myocarditis remain unknown. [2]
> Acute myocarditis with intense systemic inflammation and atypical Kawasaki disease is an emerging severe pediatric disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. A delayed and inappropriate host immunological response is suspected. [3]
> It should be appreciated that myocardial inflammation alone by macrophages and T cells can be seen in noninfectious deaths and COVID-19 cases, but the extent of each is different, and in neither case do such findings represent clinically relevant myocarditis. [4]
[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/cdc-heart-inflammation-case...
[2] Association of Myocarditis With BNT162b2 Messenger RNA COVID-19 Vaccine in a Case Series of Children https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...
[3] Acute myocarditis and multisystem inflammatory emerging disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection in critically ill children https://annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com/articles/10.1...
[4] Pathological Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 as a Cause of Myocarditis https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7816957/
[5] Antibody responses to the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01325-6
I wonder if there was some part of COVID-19 besides the spike protein we could have used that would have resulted in fewer problems.
IMHO, the targetting the spike protein helps the vaccines remain highly effective against variants. SARS-CoV-2 can evolve, but without the spike it wouldn't be so infectious (and with the spike, the vaccines already target it).
> children ... are likely to already have naturally acquired immunity
Can you explain how you have come to that understanding? And further, why are children not dying at the same rate as adults with covid?
Can you explain how you have come to that understanding? And further, why are children not dying at the same rate as adults with covid?
The older you are, the more likely Covid is to kill you [1].
> Compared with 18- to 29-year-olds, the rate of death is four times higher in 30- to 39-year-olds, and 600 times higher in those who are 85 years and older. (In the table, a rate of 1x indicates no difference compared to the 18- to 29-year-old age category.)
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...
> Compared with 18- to 29-year-olds, the rate of death is four times higher in 30- to 39-year-olds, and 600 times higher in those who are 85 years and older. (In the table, a rate of 1x indicates no difference compared to the 18- to 29-year-old age category.)
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investi...
Yes, data shows that the infection fatality rate is very low for children.
Adding to that, evidence suggests that the vast majority (65% - 95%) of infections in children are asymptomatic [1].
Overall this implies that many children have or will obtain naturally acquired immunity.
[1] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y
Adding to that, evidence suggests that the vast majority (65% - 95%) of infections in children are asymptomatic [1].
Overall this implies that many children have or will obtain naturally acquired immunity.
[1] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y
Covid is a lot nastier by the sounds of it. And much more likely in an unvaccinated population. I still fully stand by my decision to get it the very day it became available to me.