Amazon Drones - 60 Minutes [video](cbs.com)
cbs.com
Amazon Drones - 60 Minutes [video]
http://www.cbs.com/shows/60_minutes/video/jsew__gnI4_Lh_p4_Md6m1tw5mumYDuV/60-minutes-overtime-12-01-13/?nm
46 コメント
Bezos pointed out something rather salient in the interview:
Currently Amazon is a disruptor. They are doing things that no other online retailer is doing, and they're doing it better, because they chose to shoulder that risk. But merely because Amazon is doing better now doesn't mean that someone else won't come along and disrupt Amazon and kill them.
In fact, Bezos fully expects that to happen someday, and almost seems to welcome it. I think because it means progress.
Currently Amazon is a disruptor. They are doing things that no other online retailer is doing, and they're doing it better, because they chose to shoulder that risk. But merely because Amazon is doing better now doesn't mean that someone else won't come along and disrupt Amazon and kill them.
In fact, Bezos fully expects that to happen someday, and almost seems to welcome it. I think because it means progress.
Walmart is totally fine. Who cares about it? Tons of people want to work there tons of people want to shop there. Those people should shut the fuck up and if you do neither why would you care?
It's just an easy target for people who want to misdiagnose a problem and provide a solution that will make things worse.
It's just an easy target for people who want to misdiagnose a problem and provide a solution that will make things worse.
> and if you do neither why would you care?
Because you run a business that Walmart is outcompeting? You have no imagination if you can't come up with at least ten ways people could be being negatively affected by Walmart outside of direct business interactions with it.
Because you run a business that Walmart is outcompeting? You have no imagination if you can't come up with at least ten ways people could be being negatively affected by Walmart outside of direct business interactions with it.
Well unless you for some reason think we shouldn't have competition in our economy you didn't come up with 1 good one.
Progress can expose problems in a system; the solution is not to halt progress, but to fix the system.
Now if they can just build Amazon ICBM or Amazon Railgun for us international customers, that would give a new meaning to "dropshipping".
A classic bit of Amazon humour (part of amazork.com):
Amazork.com - Confidential! Do not read unless authorized!
Guys-
Since super saver shipping worked so well, we decided to further expand our delivery options by offering instantaneous delivery. Since quantum teleportation is still in its infancy as a technology, the best alternative seems to be orbital fulfilment centers with ballistic delivery systems. So far, we've successfully built a prototype magnetic railgun that serves most of the western United States. While it does deliver items within seconds, as planned, we have not worked out all of the kinks (not to mention the, ahem, liability issues.)
We have been pursuing a partnership with some contacts Jeff made in the course of his space exploration work. The technology transfer is promising but the long term ramifications are unclear.
In case what amounts to the militarization of e-commerce becomes impractical, we've also been pursuing a more conventional method for rapid distribution in desnely populated urban areas. You can go take a look at the prototype on the top floor of PAC (you'll need your "special-access" key, though.)
-J
Amazork.com - Confidential! Do not read unless authorized!
Guys-
Since super saver shipping worked so well, we decided to further expand our delivery options by offering instantaneous delivery. Since quantum teleportation is still in its infancy as a technology, the best alternative seems to be orbital fulfilment centers with ballistic delivery systems. So far, we've successfully built a prototype magnetic railgun that serves most of the western United States. While it does deliver items within seconds, as planned, we have not worked out all of the kinks (not to mention the, ahem, liability issues.)
We have been pursuing a partnership with some contacts Jeff made in the course of his space exploration work. The technology transfer is promising but the long term ramifications are unclear.
In case what amounts to the militarization of e-commerce becomes impractical, we've also been pursuing a more conventional method for rapid distribution in desnely populated urban areas. You can go take a look at the prototype on the top floor of PAC (you'll need your "special-access" key, though.)
-J
I never saw that '99 special on Bezos. I was surprised to see how cheerful he was at the time. He always seems so stern and serious these days - a man to be feared and respected rather than mocked for being playful.
Absolutely. It was really interesting to see him in that kind of character, you rarely get that kind of spontaneous reaction out of him nowadays.
Drone delivery being developed in Shenzhen, China http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GDnFbTL5vc (3 months ago)
I think maybe Santa Claus has had this technology for years ... it is the only feasible way he could do what he does.
If you let it keep playing past the primary segment, they show an old segment from 1999. The screenshots featured Netscape Navigator. Good times!
I really loved watching that old segment. Little things like Bob Simon saying "...gigabytes, whatever that is" really takes you back to that time before the ubiquity of computing.
The other interesting thing was the discussion about selling user data and how unconcerned everyone was at that point about it.
The other interesting thing was the discussion about selling user data and how unconcerned everyone was at that point about it.
I think this is my favorite (around 15:55):
Reporter: I think my generation grew up with Sears.
Some Wall Street Guy: And Amazon is worth 20% more than Sears is worth, in market capitalization.
Reporter: How do you view that phenomenon, that Amazon today is worth more than Sears?
WSG: Investors are focused on the future. Amazon has growth potential that Sears doesn't.
Reporter: (Scoffing) A couple of geeks, who sketched out some software, could destroy Sears-Roebuck?
Reporter: I think my generation grew up with Sears.
Some Wall Street Guy: And Amazon is worth 20% more than Sears is worth, in market capitalization.
Reporter: How do you view that phenomenon, that Amazon today is worth more than Sears?
WSG: Investors are focused on the future. Amazon has growth potential that Sears doesn't.
Reporter: (Scoffing) A couple of geeks, who sketched out some software, could destroy Sears-Roebuck?
I felt that the reporter had a hostile tone throughout the whole interview. They way he scoffed at Jeff for driving a Honda as apposed to something like a Mercedes or Bentley put me off.
and "amazon collects over half a gigabyte of data on it's customers every single day" they must handle that much information in milliseconds at this point.
I don't mean to spoil the holidays with cynicism, but doesn't this seem more like a publicity stunt to get Amazon even more in the minds of Christmas shoppers than anything else? It would seem ludicrous if a UPS or FedEx truck were making a trip to deliver one single package and then returning to home base (with an empty truck on the way back) to make another special trip. The whole business of delivery is built on carrying many packages and, if possible, picking up as well as delivering.
I realize that little drones aren't the same thing as delivery trucks, but it seems strange that the economics would be that much different. I'll believe it when I see it.
I realize that little drones aren't the same thing as delivery trucks, but it seems strange that the economics would be that much different. I'll believe it when I see it.
The economics ARE different. The costs associated with a delivery truck are 1) gas 2) a driver 3) the truck. The drone has no driver, runs on electricity, and could probably be made for a fair sight cheaper than a delivery van can.
I agree, announcing it now is probably a publicity stunt: look at the theatrics in how they announced it. But that doesn't mean it isn't also the future of delivery in some higher density areas.
I agree, announcing it now is probably a publicity stunt: look at the theatrics in how they announced it. But that doesn't mean it isn't also the future of delivery in some higher density areas.
Why would it be strange or surprising at all? The most expensive part of the delivery truck is the driver.
This technology is actually working today. They are waiting for the FAA.
If it takes 1 or 2 years to come up with rules for new technologies, that is too long. What we actually need are functional peer-defined systems for interoperation and safety. A set of immediately obsolete prescriptive top down policies is probably going to be a hindrance.
Government as it exists in its current form is obsolete. I advocate that every citizen acquire a personal natural rights and sane systems enforcement quadcopter armed with non-lethal weapons. These quadcopters should be used for a nonlethal removal of obsolete government structures and personnel.
If it takes 1 or 2 years to come up with rules for new technologies, that is too long. What we actually need are functional peer-defined systems for interoperation and safety. A set of immediately obsolete prescriptive top down policies is probably going to be a hindrance.
Government as it exists in its current form is obsolete. I advocate that every citizen acquire a personal natural rights and sane systems enforcement quadcopter armed with non-lethal weapons. These quadcopters should be used for a nonlethal removal of obsolete government structures and personnel.
>Government as it exists in its current form is obsolete. I advocate that every citizen acquire a personal natural rights and sane systems enforcement quadcopter armed with non-lethal weapons. These quadcopters should be used for a nonlethal removal of obsolete government structures and personnel.
I love this paragraph.
I love this paragraph.
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"functional peer-defined systems for interoperation and safety."
Do you think coming up with that will be shorter or longer than the 1 or 2 year turnaround time at the FDA?
Do you think coming up with that will be shorter or longer than the 1 or 2 year turnaround time at the FDA?
It’s a symphony of people,
it’s a symphony of software,
it’s a symphony of robots now.
~Jeff Bezos
More info directly from Amazon: http://amzn.to/1jZz62w
Amazon believes it could be operational as early as 2015. I assume it's only going to be in certain municipalities and even then only in a certain area. It might not actually be as crazy as it sounds- the drone will probably pay for itself when you consider that Amazon will no longer be dependent on FedEx. The $7 (or whatever) they pay FedEx to deliver Prime stuff now goes to paying for the drones, amortized over a whole geographic area, maybe they'll even end up saving money.
Amazon believes it could be operational as early as 2015. I assume it's only going to be in certain municipalities and even then only in a certain area. It might not actually be as crazy as it sounds- the drone will probably pay for itself when you consider that Amazon will no longer be dependent on FedEx. The $7 (or whatever) they pay FedEx to deliver Prime stuff now goes to paying for the drones, amortized over a whole geographic area, maybe they'll even end up saving money.
I wouldn't have believed it if I wouldn't have heard about the same sort of thing in China.
The hacking arms race is about to go airborne. I wonder what the penalty would be if I send up my drone to intercept one of their drones and shoot it down?
I wonder if the have bigger drones for delivery of things like a billiards table? I would order one for a friend just to scare the out of him.
It's great to see a huge company continuing to propel us into the future rather than planning that in 5 years it could sit on it's laurels with a monopoly.
The hacking arms race is about to go airborne. I wonder what the penalty would be if I send up my drone to intercept one of their drones and shoot it down?
I wonder if the have bigger drones for delivery of things like a billiards table? I would order one for a friend just to scare the out of him.
It's great to see a huge company continuing to propel us into the future rather than planning that in 5 years it could sit on it's laurels with a monopoly.
You really wonder what the penalty would be? Do you regularly consider shooting unoccupied cars?
I don't understand. How is this practical? There are many things that won't work here --
- How will it be cost effective? This is not free two day shipping like in Prime.
- How can it be 30 min delivery? That would mean Amazon will have a whole lot of hubs all over the country in 1 hour radii. That itself sounds impractical. Amazon would give up the one big advantage they have over walmart - the fact that they don't own and maintain floor spaces all over the country.
- How will it be cost effective? This is not free two day shipping like in Prime.
- How can it be 30 min delivery? That would mean Amazon will have a whole lot of hubs all over the country in 1 hour radii. That itself sounds impractical. Amazon would give up the one big advantage they have over walmart - the fact that they don't own and maintain floor spaces all over the country.
It will be cost effective if people are willing to pay for it. It won't be available everywhere, only in densely populated areas, and the warehouses will only carry a subset of smaller, higher-value, more time-sensitive goods.
There are Walmart stores all over the country. EDIT: Why did you edit your post instead of responding to me? I'd say Amazon's advantage over Walmart remains the fact that they deliver to the doorstep, and with hubs across the country, same-day delivery becomes possible; be it via vehicle or drone.
> That would mean Amazon will have a whole lot of hubs all over the country in 1 hour radii.
Amazon is already building distribution centers all over the countries where they operate. They are massively upscaling their distribution network, and it's fair to expect that by 2015 they would have reached a point where they can guarantee 30 mins delivery in all major hubs.
Note that even currently, "prime" is not available for all items sold on Amazon anyway. I expect there will be similar restrictions as to what applies to "prime air".
Amazon is already building distribution centers all over the countries where they operate. They are massively upscaling their distribution network, and it's fair to expect that by 2015 they would have reached a point where they can guarantee 30 mins delivery in all major hubs.
Note that even currently, "prime" is not available for all items sold on Amazon anyway. I expect there will be similar restrictions as to what applies to "prime air".
So, the're planting their flag in the ground and saying the've almost solved autonomous flight and obstacle avoidance in suburban areas? Amazing.
The idea of Christmas gifts falling down chimneys across the world in one evening isn't sounding so ridiculous anymore.
Would like to hear more detail about how it knows exactly where to drop the package. Best case I can think of would be using your phone to set a GPS location that you want it delivered to. The cool part about that is that I could have them drop off the package in my back yard where it would not be stolen as easily.
Unless someone flies in a drone and picks it up.
It never occurred to me until now that you could use drones to commit petty theft. Not even of someone else's goods--stolen credit card + random residential address + drone waiting to pluck the package off the doorstep = profusion of "brand-new-in-box" laptops into the secondary market.
I suppose the challenge would be hiding the drone, especially before drones become a ubiquitous consumer-good... but I suppose you don't have to meet them at home; any flat rooftop is a valid place to drop a package to go collect, or a valid "overnight parking" destination.
I suppose the challenge would be hiding the drone, especially before drones become a ubiquitous consumer-good... but I suppose you don't have to meet them at home; any flat rooftop is a valid place to drop a package to go collect, or a valid "overnight parking" destination.
A bigger question is that even in 2015 w/ a successful lunch what is going to prevent these things from being hit or redirected (GPS MITM) in the sky. Going to assume it will become a crime to interfere with domestic UAVs @ some point.
I'm pretty sure it is a crime to damage or steal people's property. I'm failing to see the regulation crisis that so many drone skeptics are claiming.
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"We hope the FAA's rules will be in place as early as sometime in 2015. We will be ready at that time." ...
Holy hell. I can't think of anything scarier than the internet version of WalMart controlling all of modern consumerism. (Except, of course, Amazon's fingers reach into so many more digital pies than WalMart)