Ask HN: Predictions on Crypto?
Crypto currencies and technologies seems to be going through an especially volatile period with a lot of skepticism and lack of confidence. What are your long and short term predictions for the crypto ecosystem as a whole?
9 comments
In the short term, I expect the highly leveraged offshore Bitcoin exchanges to make a series of increasingly deep margin calls. These will place more stress on the "stable" coins. I expect them to collapse, or take losses of 90%+
I expect Bitcoin to take a large hit. I expect the amount of mining to drastically drop as it becomes unprofitable to do so. This might lead to a 51% event and a hard fork and/or collapse.
In the long term, if it survives, I expect BitCoin to emerge with a much lower value. This can be either because of a new lower equilibrium found with the cost of mining, OR as alternatives to proof of work are adopted.
However -- The US dollar might take a huge hit as well due to the ever increasing consequences of our outsourcing of our supply chain here in the US. It may be that in terms of numbers (not value of goods purchased) you might find the BTC-USD price remaining relatively stable as the dollar inflates away it's value.
I expect Bitcoin to take a large hit. I expect the amount of mining to drastically drop as it becomes unprofitable to do so. This might lead to a 51% event and a hard fork and/or collapse.
In the long term, if it survives, I expect BitCoin to emerge with a much lower value. This can be either because of a new lower equilibrium found with the cost of mining, OR as alternatives to proof of work are adopted.
However -- The US dollar might take a huge hit as well due to the ever increasing consequences of our outsourcing of our supply chain here in the US. It may be that in terms of numbers (not value of goods purchased) you might find the BTC-USD price remaining relatively stable as the dollar inflates away it's value.
Crypto is here to stay but it needs a shake out. There are too many people that just want to make a buck with no thought about their value to society. So a bunch of the crypto space will start to disappear as more responsible players will define their roles. NFT's, blockchain, Bitcoin and Ethereum will survive the shakeup. It's too early to know in what form. There are still many crypto products that will be created but only those that meet a defined need will survive.
Also, in 10 yrs or so you will see the space being dominated by a few big players. The big players will offer services that will be hard to pass up by customers so they will flock to them. The idea of decentralization will still be part of the space but a small part. The big players will be involved on the protocol's definition with the stated goal of improving the protocol for all but they a really looking out for their interest. They want to make sure the protocols don't created problems for them as they change.
Something that must happen is that the services must get to a point where customers find it very easy to use. So any company that can create services that are fool proof will win over customers and be one of the big players.
Also, in 10 yrs or so you will see the space being dominated by a few big players. The big players will offer services that will be hard to pass up by customers so they will flock to them. The idea of decentralization will still be part of the space but a small part. The big players will be involved on the protocol's definition with the stated goal of improving the protocol for all but they a really looking out for their interest. They want to make sure the protocols don't created problems for them as they change.
Something that must happen is that the services must get to a point where customers find it very easy to use. So any company that can create services that are fool proof will win over customers and be one of the big players.
I'm actually optimistic on the programming language research that can come out of it. One implementation bug can collapse a whole blockchain or series of smart contracts, and I've seen some more research going into language design because of these issues.
Other than that, I think the technologies will always be niche. At the end of the day its cheaper to have a single mutable source than many different immutable sources with a resolution mechanism, and economics tends to move towards the cheaper substitute (also cheaper in terms of complexity, many decisions are made out seeking simplicity, even if the more complex option is the optimal choice).
Other than that, I think the technologies will always be niche. At the end of the day its cheaper to have a single mutable source than many different immutable sources with a resolution mechanism, and economics tends to move towards the cheaper substitute (also cheaper in terms of complexity, many decisions are made out seeking simplicity, even if the more complex option is the optimal choice).
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Transaction fees have to come down for crypto to be interesting as a legitimate currency.
Long on blockchain as a technology, very hesitant on the current ecosystem.
BTC price goes back down to 2018 levels like the ARKK and IPO etfs, fast.
Proof of work will evolve into something more useful than heating rooms.
winter is coming