14 People Make 500K Tons of Steel a Year in Austria(bloomberg.com)
bloomberg.com
14 People Make 500K Tons of Steel a Year in Austria
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/how-just-14-people-make-500-000-tons-of-steel-a-year-in-austria
235 comments
HN has reached some kind of wonderful critical mass when it gets such a well-informed comment about steel production almost instantly after the post appears. Thanks for an answer that radically changed my view of the original post. My life is complete.
Animats stands for "ambulatory encyclopedia". Also John Nagle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagle%27s_algorithm
I'm just old. I lived in Cleveland when it looked like this.[1] City streets ran through the steel mills. Switch engines pulled short trains of red-hot ingots on tracks on city streets. You could see the ingots make the trip from caster to rolling mill. In a steel town, everybody knows the basic process.
[1] http://timkovach.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/clark-ave...
[1] http://timkovach.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/clark-ave...
THAT JOHN NAGLE? Whoa. My life really is complete. Please excuse me while I stalk his HN history ...
I've started browsing by user name instead of topic. Animats is consistently good.
Even the automated ones are dangerous to be close to, apparently. There's a characteristic type of snarl-up known as a "cobble" where white-hot steel rod flies everywhere: https://youtu.be/uxbsgWOjX5o
Every American steel mill I've been in or heard about has cages that people have to stay inside if they are near the part of the line where this can happen. (Presumably an OSHA requirement, but I'm not 100% on that.)
Not the one I worked in back in the early 90's. You could walk along to rolling line and had to hit a pause button to stop the feeding of billets in the reheat furnace to cross the line to the other side of the plant. Nucor Plymouth.
I was a Nucor engineer in the early 2010s, and all their rolling mills had them by then. Things had changed a lot since the '90s, though. The old guys talked about having to manually replace the electrodes in the arc furnaces, which has been done with a robot arm since the late '90s or early 2000s.
(For those of you who don't know what this is, each electrode is a graphite column one or two feet in diameter and about 20 feet long. Replacing them took two guys, selected for their resemblance to linebackers, and had to be done multiple times each day.)
(For those of you who don't know what this is, each electrode is a graphite column one or two feet in diameter and about 20 feet long. Replacing them took two guys, selected for their resemblance to linebackers, and had to be done multiple times each day.)
They now have a walkway to be able to cross over safely. Cobbles sure still happen and it's scary to see hot steel spaghetti fly into the air from within the pulpit.
Steel manufacturing seems to have a large number of "that's going to suck to clean up" failure modes.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9zW4BcomQo
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9zW4BcomQo
That's metalwork in general. A friend of mine worked in a copper mill as an engineering intern and he told me all kinds of horror stories like having to clear out a chimney with a shotgun and scraping several tons of copper off the floor.
Well a 1001 ways to die now.
Slightly click-baity headline:
"While about 300 other workers in Donawitz carry out support roles such as shipping logistics and running the internal rail system, the rolling mill itself will be operated by just over a dozen people."
"While about 300 other workers in Donawitz carry out support roles such as shipping logistics and running the internal rail system, the rolling mill itself will be operated by just over a dozen people."
Yeah, and that's not even remarkable. 70-90% of employees in a modern manufacturing facility will be in maintenance or support roles.
To emphasise this.
The entire plant needs to be maintained, with daily, weekly, quarterly, annual and longer preventative maintenance schedules. Sometimes these will require taking down the whole plant for a week or two, other times for shorter times or the work can be done without interruption.
There is also unplanned maintenance - when the plant stops working and a team is needed to get it bak up and running. For this yo gals need a warehouse full of critical spare parts - and people to manage it all.
The plant also needs people working on product development (e.g. different wire materials and weights), process development (improvement in capacity to over name place capacity), health and safety (even with a hands-free plant like this there are plenty off hazards and a large amount of environmental and H&S compliance work), and so on. All these people need managers. And then there is demand management - figuring out what to make and when, goods inwards (and its quality control), dispatch and managing all the associated paperwork and QC.
And there need to be people who make are those controlling computers and all the transmitters and controllers are working properly.
and so on. But a laudable achievement nonetheless.
The plant also needs people working on product development (e.g. different wire materials and weights), process development (improvement in capacity to over name place capacity), health and safety (even with a hands-free plant like this there are plenty off hazards and a large amount of environmental and H&S compliance work), and so on. All these people need managers. And then there is demand management - figuring out what to make and when, goods inwards (and its quality control), dispatch and managing all the associated paperwork and QC.
And there need to be people who make are those controlling computers and all the transmitters and controllers are working properly.
and so on. But a laudable achievement nonetheless.
Even in a software house - I worked at a company where there were 11 other employees for each developer (most of them salespeople).
We should not be employing people in jobs that can be automated. We should try and automate everything. We should develop technologies, processes, and abilities so that everyone can learn new things. The people that want to learn will be incredibly leveraged and provide a ton of value to society. Those who don't want to learn should be given enough for basic subsistence. A stipend which covers food, shelter, clothing, catastrophic healthcare, reasonable water access, and unlimited data. I would also push that all humans can be close to nature in some way, be it a park or otherwise. We have the technology to do this. Instead we have protectionism and fear.
I agree with this for the most part. There is a real human need though, and not one that makes a lot of rational sense, but a need nonetheless, to be needed. And for a lot of people in that world you described it wouldn't be met. It's kind of perverse right, because people don't want you to artificially create need for them (it wouldn't be fun to receive your basic income in compensation for digging and then filling in a big hole), they want it to be a genuine need for their talents. And unfortunately although we evolved that yearning to be helpful, we also evolved the ability to automate away most of the tasks that would have stimulated that.
There is a ton of important work that needs to be done that gets the short shrift in our society. Taking care of our elderly and our children, teaching, cleaning up and looking after the environment, community service. There is a massive gap between the activities that our economy incentivizes and what is good for the health and happiness of our communities. Basic income doesn't have to involve useless hole digging, there is plenty of work out there that would be both useful and rewarding.
all of those jobs you mentioned are all targets of automation.
I much rather have window cleaning and fixing road pavement automated than looking after my kids and the elderly. I doubt that the machine or robot will be able to convey the empathy required for people interaction.
Nope, not going to agree on that one.
The robot is not going to molest my kids and the elderly. The Robot will not cough tuberculosis spores onto them, will not touch their food after picking a nose or wiping an ass (both of which the robot lacks), and will not brush them with herpes sores. When the robot dies, an exact replacement can be had. The robot will never decide to kill out of frustration, religious fervor, or revenge. The robot will not steal.
The robot is not going to molest my kids and the elderly. The Robot will not cough tuberculosis spores onto them, will not touch their food after picking a nose or wiping an ass (both of which the robot lacks), and will not brush them with herpes sores. When the robot dies, an exact replacement can be had. The robot will never decide to kill out of frustration, religious fervor, or revenge. The robot will not steal.
But those are jobs where personal contact matters, and that's not easily automated. By all means automate the hard/annoying/disgusting parts that can be automated, but still add people for the personal touch.
Today, due to the low amount of money we're willing to spend on care, and the high demands and pressure on the people providing that care, people who care for elderly and sick people often don't have the time for personal contact, often to their own frustration. So let's automate everything else so people have more time for real contact.
Today, due to the low amount of money we're willing to spend on care, and the high demands and pressure on the people providing that care, people who care for elderly and sick people often don't have the time for personal contact, often to their own frustration. So let's automate everything else so people have more time for real contact.
I think you're dramatically underestimating the cost of providing personal care. It's incredibly expensive because it's so labour intensive, and as you point out it's the personal part of that which matters, which makes the costs so hard to reduce.
I'm not underestimating the cost at all. The people in control of those budgets underestimate the importance of personal contact.
Well, using science we could construct a study where a large scale community has many services pro died by humans vs another large community where many services are provided by automatons. We could look at the strengths and weaknesses of both and maximize human happiness and well-being.
The result could be as simple as machines just fill in gaps for when were tired, moody or on vacation. We could optimize for min usage of automatons, and target low performers for educational opportunities and psychological support.
The result could be as simple as machines just fill in gaps for when were tired, moody or on vacation. We could optimize for min usage of automatons, and target low performers for educational opportunities and psychological support.
I think iain bank's "the culture" novels explore this future in depth quite well. I will not spoil it but the basic idea is "games" - people will just be able to play all the games they want and compete with one anoher without the need to survive.
Also, there is absolutely no abuse of power in Banks' society. This would certainly be a problem in a fully-automated capitalist society. I think Banks is a great inspiration, but it is not a world we will get by default. It needs active political effort.
This is abuse of power in these books, sometimes even quite blatant. Player of Games has probably the best example, since it has blackmail and extortion of a Culture citizen by an AI, with the help of a ship's Mind. Not to mention cheating at a board game.
That said, the Culture does seem like it would be a nice place to live, over all.
That said, the Culture does seem like it would be a nice place to live, over all.
The Culture series of books are the most uplifting things I've read. They just make me feel great, especially the parts that take place on Orbitals (apart from the strange shit in the first book).
You might also enjoy Constellation Games, by Leonard Richardson (http://constellation.crummy.com/).
Abuse of power is absolutely an issue for a fully automated society. Ultimately, somebody is in control.
Take the current political situation in the US. Trump would love for everybody to blindly obey him. His autocratic goals are frustrated by the fact that government is made up of people who are able to resist the government they are part of if they believe it's going wrong. Without those people, Trump could count on the obedience of the literal machinery of government. Having people involved can be an extra layer of protection against abuse.
Take the current political situation in the US. Trump would love for everybody to blindly obey him. His autocratic goals are frustrated by the fact that government is made up of people who are able to resist the government they are part of if they believe it's going wrong. Without those people, Trump could count on the obedience of the literal machinery of government. Having people involved can be an extra layer of protection against abuse.
IIRC not from humans, but some Minds still did abuse their power in Excession.
absolutely no abuse of power in Banks' society
':-|
':-|
That statement makes no sense either, the Culture had an explicit department for abusing it's power, Special Circumstances.
I think his point was that even if you live in a post-scarcity anarcho-communist society where everyone is live and let live, the rest of the universe isn't an occasionally you need headbangers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Circumstances
I think his point was that even if you live in a post-scarcity anarcho-communist society where everyone is live and let live, the rest of the universe isn't an occasionally you need headbangers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Circumstances
It's obviously more nuanced than that, but you'll end up in an argument of semantics pretty quickly. All the SC/Mind scheming is ultimately coming down to what we consider to be morally correct, so it'll be a discussion of whether e.g. letting a person die in order to serve a greater good constitutes abuse of power or not. The theme of the Culture series is what we would want to do if we could do anything we wanted, and there's not a clear-cut response to that. The egocentric part of the equation is reduced a lot.
finally a good plaintext candidate for the thinking emoji shortcut!
Banks' society is explicitly post-ownership; it's fully-automated luxury anarcho-cyberism. It relies entirely on benevolent near-omnipotent AI.
Banks himself was distinctly anti-capitalist.
Banks himself was distinctly anti-capitalist.
Look at how little of the novels actually takes place within the borders of the culture though. The only place he can tell interesting stories is outside it, usually in neighbouring "primitive" societies - and the only way he can make relatable protagonists is to give them something equivalent to a job, despite this being supposedly extremely rare in the culture.
To the extent that people have a "need to be needed," we should ask ourselves what the most efficient way to meet that need is. Perhaps the answer is to keep "make-work" jobs around. Of course we'd hide the pointlessness of these jobs behind initiatives that "create jobs" and economic policies that "support small businesses" or "enforce fair trade." We've gotten really good at preventing workers (and perhaps ourselves) from knowing that the work they're doing is pointless.
The reality is that a lot of people already are doing the equivalent of receiving their basic income in exchange for digging and then filling in a big hole.
But maybe there's a cheaper way to meet people's "need to be needed" that's less wasteful of resources. Sports? Video game competitions? Intellectual debate? Volunteer work? There are a lot of possibilities here. I'd love to find out.
In any case, I think it would be prudent to separate the debate about how people get most of their incomes from the debate about how people find meaning in their lives. Tying the two together is only one option and I'm not sure it's the right one.
The reality is that a lot of people already are doing the equivalent of receiving their basic income in exchange for digging and then filling in a big hole.
But maybe there's a cheaper way to meet people's "need to be needed" that's less wasteful of resources. Sports? Video game competitions? Intellectual debate? Volunteer work? There are a lot of possibilities here. I'd love to find out.
In any case, I think it would be prudent to separate the debate about how people get most of their incomes from the debate about how people find meaning in their lives. Tying the two together is only one option and I'm not sure it's the right one.
Military service is a good potential make-work program that can provide
a sense of purpose.
Don't worry -- they'll get to play SimSteelFactory instead of working at (and possibly screwing up) a real steel factory. People can derive meaning from playing games.
This argument comes up time and again but I have never really seen someone attack it or someone substantiate the claim with studies or something. As far as I am concerned, I could not care less if I had no longer to work for a living.
If you're a typical HN reader you could probably retire to somewhere with a low cost of living tomorrow and live off your savings, or at worst you'd have to spend a few years saving up first. But you don't.
Long-term unemployed people whose cost of living is subsidized (in the US due to various legal quirks this is mainly disability) are generally substantially less happy than employed people. I don't have studies to hand but would you dispute that result?
Long-term unemployed people whose cost of living is subsidized (in the US due to various legal quirks this is mainly disability) are generally substantially less happy than employed people. I don't have studies to hand but would you dispute that result?
tl;dr: we all need a reason to get up in the morning.
> There is a real human need though... to be needed
Get a pet.
Get a pet.
Some people also get a human.
The question is how will power be distributed between the owners of the automated plants and the 'subsistence' class? Will there be a true meritocracy, or will the children of the plant owners get all the best jobs? Judging from the way third world economies work, I would not assume the best. This I think is the reason for fear and protectionism.
not to mention (at least in the US) that you're handing over a huge political/power pawn. Vastly simplified:
- Party A's candidate is clean and runs on improving infrastructure but that requires a slight cut to UBI
- Party B's candidate has issues regarding corruption, doesn't talk much about infrastructure but promises an increase to the UBI stipend
Which candidate do you think people will vote for?
- Party A's candidate is clean and runs on improving infrastructure but that requires a slight cut to UBI
- Party B's candidate has issues regarding corruption, doesn't talk much about infrastructure but promises an increase to the UBI stipend
Which candidate do you think people will vote for?
In the US one party promises free education, free or reduced health care to the majority of the population, etc etc.
This party is still not in power. I don't think its a foregone conclusion that people vote themselves bread and circuses, which is I think your primary point.
On another front I find it hard to believe that UBI if it ever comes to the US will be set anywhere above poverty level. In that context anyone who voted to take money from people in poverty and use it to build roads they would probably be laughed out of office and rightly so.
This party is still not in power. I don't think its a foregone conclusion that people vote themselves bread and circuses, which is I think your primary point.
On another front I find it hard to believe that UBI if it ever comes to the US will be set anywhere above poverty level. In that context anyone who voted to take money from people in poverty and use it to build roads they would probably be laughed out of office and rightly so.
I certainly hope by 'one party' you don't mean the Democrat Party- they've promised nothing of the sort.
If you mean a third party, well than that comes down to lack of trust in that party's ability to execute.
If you mean a third party, well than that comes down to lack of trust in that party's ability to execute.
> I don't think its a foregone conclusion that people vote themselves bread and circuses, which is I think your primary point.
Or just populism in general - and I think "fear" is a stronger voter-pull than "want": fear of Mexican immigrants committing crimes, taking your job, fear of increased healthcare costs, etc.
As the majority of Americans do have health coverage it's a given that 51% of the population want cheaper coverage even if it means the other 49% will lose coverage then that's going to happen.
Or just populism in general - and I think "fear" is a stronger voter-pull than "want": fear of Mexican immigrants committing crimes, taking your job, fear of increased healthcare costs, etc.
As the majority of Americans do have health coverage it's a given that 51% of the population want cheaper coverage even if it means the other 49% will lose coverage then that's going to happen.
Is it really that simplistic? I would guess many wouldn't vote for cheaper coverage for them if it means that their parents/children/close friends lose coverage.
(Which is why politicians are so busy denying that anyone will lose coverage under their plans.)
(Which is why politicians are so busy denying that anyone will lose coverage under their plans.)
The Democratic party does not credibly propose any of those things. Hillary Clinton explicitly rebuked Bernie Sanders' campaign promises with regards to health and education.
We have not yet seen a candidate running on a socialist proposal coupled with even mediocre or passable mediatic support. Every time a socialist-leaning candidate pops up, moneyed interests work really, really hard against them. However, it's getting better and better (see: Corbyn in UK).
It'll come. People will vote themselves, not bread and circuses, but health and education. And democracy and markets, as opposing decision-making mechanisms, will clash.
We have not yet seen a candidate running on a socialist proposal coupled with even mediocre or passable mediatic support. Every time a socialist-leaning candidate pops up, moneyed interests work really, really hard against them. However, it's getting better and better (see: Corbyn in UK).
It'll come. People will vote themselves, not bread and circuses, but health and education. And democracy and markets, as opposing decision-making mechanisms, will clash.
Given the history of trying to build public support for moving UBI from $0 to >$0, probably the former, even if you switch the non-UBI factors, after wealthy interests who aren't on the benefitting side of redistribution get their propaganda in.
“People will always vote for the candidate that promises to increase public benefits they receive” is an attractive myth that doesn't actually play out in practice; in the US, it doesn't even play out in practice in primary elections within the major party most favorably inclined to public benefit programs.
“People will always vote for the candidate that promises to increase public benefits they receive” is an attractive myth that doesn't actually play out in practice; in the US, it doesn't even play out in practice in primary elections within the major party most favorably inclined to public benefit programs.
I would assume that's because most people right now picture UBI as benefitting only lazy people etc. Once there is a UBI, they'll realize that they're also getting paid, and they'll be more likely to vote against people who want to cut it.
> Once there is a UBI, they'll realize that they're also getting paid
As with existing benefit programs, people will also realize that they are paying. And, as with benefit programs now, even people who are likely to benefit far more from the “being paid” part more than they lose to the “paying” part will often be prone to, and be encouraged by slick propaganda from moneyed interests to, identify with and vote for the interests of those who are on the other side of that equation instead of their own.
As with existing benefit programs, people will also realize that they are paying. And, as with benefit programs now, even people who are likely to benefit far more from the “being paid” part more than they lose to the “paying” part will often be prone to, and be encouraged by slick propaganda from moneyed interests to, identify with and vote for the interests of those who are on the other side of that equation instead of their own.
In practice, "people will vote against those who take away public benefits they receive" is probably more accurate in the US.
" wealthy interests who aren't on the benefitting side of redistribution"
I don't think anybody wants to live in a society where 99% of population are suffering from hunger and lack of basic necessities. There will be no safety in such a society.
but there is always possibility of robot bodyguards!!!
I don't think anybody wants to live in a society where 99% of population are suffering from hunger and lack of basic necessities. There will be no safety in such a society.
but there is always possibility of robot bodyguards!!!
I meant benefiting in the narrow, short-term net payment sense.
I'd agree that there are broader benefits, too.
I'd agree that there are broader benefits, too.
> Which candidate do you think people will vote for?
the one that is taller, talks with more confidence and has more gray hair
the one that is taller, talks with more confidence and has more gray hair
I think it would be important to tie UBI to key economic indicators and put any direct adjustments under the control of economists. We will need to limit politicians control of the purse strings.
Then wouldn't you end up with a class of economists who are in a revolving door situation with financial institutions (who stand to benefit from networking with those controlling the purse strings), the same way we now have politicians converting to lobbyists (who benefit from networking with those controlling the political decision making)?
> I think it would be important to tie UBI to key economic indicators
Better, just tie it to a defined relationship to a particular revenue stream; if it's capital-income-derived revenue, it's a good theoretical tie to the purpose of compensating for the displacement of labor in industry, and it's less subject to distortion than most economic indicators.
Better, just tie it to a defined relationship to a particular revenue stream; if it's capital-income-derived revenue, it's a good theoretical tie to the purpose of compensating for the displacement of labor in industry, and it's less subject to distortion than most economic indicators.
The bad guys in David Weber's Honor Harrington novels are based on this idea. It's an interesting take on what might happen.
[deleted]
> The bad guys in David Weber's Honor Harrington novels are based on this idea.
Pedantically, the obvious “bad guys” in the earliest few, not the (so far, at least) principal bad guys of the whole series, who it turns out were also manipulating those obvious, early ones.
> It's an interesting take on what might happen.
It's kind of a shallow throwaway regurgitation of a standard argument without deep exploration or novel insight (which is okay, because it's not like Havenite society under the People's Republic is all that central a focus of any of the books, so shallow cartoonish broad strokes are fine.)
Pedantically, the obvious “bad guys” in the earliest few, not the (so far, at least) principal bad guys of the whole series, who it turns out were also manipulating those obvious, early ones.
> It's an interesting take on what might happen.
It's kind of a shallow throwaway regurgitation of a standard argument without deep exploration or novel insight (which is okay, because it's not like Havenite society under the People's Republic is all that central a focus of any of the books, so shallow cartoonish broad strokes are fine.)
The bad guys in Baen published novels are just whoever the author doesn't like, usually anyone who isn't a Republican.
Though David Weber has his own pro-monarchy pro-libertarian ironically-not-racist thing going on, he just assigns random evil acts to random characters coincidentally named after his opponents, like having the Progressive Party actually be into human trafficking.
(When SF authors get old they all develop terrible opinions a while before anyone notices. Like Larry Niven wrote a book about the Green Party causing an ice age by stopping climate change and Arthur C Clarke became a pedophile. Heinlein, of course, started out that way.)
Though David Weber has his own pro-monarchy pro-libertarian ironically-not-racist thing going on, he just assigns random evil acts to random characters coincidentally named after his opponents, like having the Progressive Party actually be into human trafficking.
(When SF authors get old they all develop terrible opinions a while before anyone notices. Like Larry Niven wrote a book about the Green Party causing an ice age by stopping climate change and Arthur C Clarke became a pedophile. Heinlein, of course, started out that way.)
> like having the Progressive Party actually be into human trafficking.
IIRC, the Party, per se, wasn't, though a leader of that party was an agent of an organization that was.
IIRC, the Party, per se, wasn't, though a leader of that party was an agent of an organization that was.
the exact scenario that you described plays out in Argentina among other places.
in the US, it would look a bit different, though.
neither party is clean, and so both agree to leave questions of cleanliness off the table.
in the US, it would look a bit different, though.
neither party is clean, and so both agree to leave questions of cleanliness off the table.
People don't necessarily want hand outs, they perhaps just want to live in an environment where they can sustain themselves through their own effort. Perhaps this is part of the reason HRC lost in November.
Centrists like HRC don't believe in giving you things for free, they want to watch you jump through hoops made of paperwork first. It's the TurboTax lobby at work.
What sort of corruption is possible when everything is done by machines. The greatest argument to privatized enterprise is efficiency, but how does that argument hold up with factories that are massively automated. Why are owners of such an enterprise needed at all?
If everything is automated then such companies need no owner as the ownership is to make sure the work gets done properly. It will be done properly no matter what the owners do. Why are they entitled to anything more than your average person.
I would think in the future you have shareholders, people who own the machines, that employ like a few workers who are managed by machines. And therefore those shareholders can just be just about anybody or even governments... who take the profit or revenue that enterprise generates and distribute it to the people.
I am talking about something like this sort of business which does not change, or grow much. It's a commodity. It can just be produced by pretty much anyone.
If everything is automated then such companies need no owner as the ownership is to make sure the work gets done properly. It will be done properly no matter what the owners do. Why are they entitled to anything more than your average person.
I would think in the future you have shareholders, people who own the machines, that employ like a few workers who are managed by machines. And therefore those shareholders can just be just about anybody or even governments... who take the profit or revenue that enterprise generates and distribute it to the people.
I am talking about something like this sort of business which does not change, or grow much. It's a commodity. It can just be produced by pretty much anyone.
If we reach that point I would prefer to see people vote for government to construct new automated production facilities and provide their benefits to the people. Rather like how I think that voters should be able to vote for a government owned power plant, sewage treatment plant, library, broadband provider, etc. but I don't think they should be able to vote to seize the nearest privately owned book store for conversion to a public library.
If you build public facilities in parallel there's no unjust seizure of existing assets. (Some people will complain that it's unfair to allow the government to do anything at all that could reduce the profitability of existing private assets, but I don't think that those people make up a prohibitive share of the population.)
If you build public facilities in parallel there's no unjust seizure of existing assets. (Some people will complain that it's unfair to allow the government to do anything at all that could reduce the profitability of existing private assets, but I don't think that those people make up a prohibitive share of the population.)
With the amount of unused capital that is available in the system these days... I don't know why anyone would, anyone should be able to buy machines and build their own factory. It's just that those assets would not be growth assets. In fact if anything I would think investors would not be interested in investing in that sort of enterprise... as the returns are nominal so it makes sense for governments to run these sorts of things like utilities.
Wouldn't such a society be predicated on the idea that everyone has a basic income - and these fully automated factories with no (state?) ownership would be relegated to producing the basic consumables that come along with a society that provides all the basics for survival and hygiene and ideally health (mental and physical)
As such, a society would find value in the skills of the populous which produce things that have a "human" value for having been created by a human.
Further, it would seem that the overall population would drop significantly. Especially as technology for automation iterates, machines will care for human basic needs, and will care for maintenance and production of other machines to keep the system going.
Will AI manage the overall resource supply chain?
It would be interesting to see a critically thought out matrix of all the roles which could be done by machine/automation/AI vs that which must require a human.
What about "soft" skills required to run a civilization; politics and law for example.
Where politics is fundamentally required to ensure stability of an economy and society such that humans can survive in an ordered world, it is clearly exploitable and shouldn't we be attempting to remove as much human cruft from that process as possible - but ensuring that human empathy remains. As machines cannot have empathy. (At what point do we trust "programmed empathy" in AI?)
---
While there are all these efforts on ML to get machines to "see", say, cats in a picture, are there any efforts for teaching an AI to discern emotion in any given scenario?
Then ultimately, an AI will use all this to interpret intent...
As such, a society would find value in the skills of the populous which produce things that have a "human" value for having been created by a human.
Further, it would seem that the overall population would drop significantly. Especially as technology for automation iterates, machines will care for human basic needs, and will care for maintenance and production of other machines to keep the system going.
Will AI manage the overall resource supply chain?
It would be interesting to see a critically thought out matrix of all the roles which could be done by machine/automation/AI vs that which must require a human.
What about "soft" skills required to run a civilization; politics and law for example.
Where politics is fundamentally required to ensure stability of an economy and society such that humans can survive in an ordered world, it is clearly exploitable and shouldn't we be attempting to remove as much human cruft from that process as possible - but ensuring that human empathy remains. As machines cannot have empathy. (At what point do we trust "programmed empathy" in AI?)
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While there are all these efforts on ML to get machines to "see", say, cats in a picture, are there any efforts for teaching an AI to discern emotion in any given scenario?
Then ultimately, an AI will use all this to interpret intent...
Civilized societys resepect property. They are entitled to it, because it's theirs.
Besides, who would invest in a country where people have such a mindset? And what is with companies owned by local and international shareholders?
Besides, who would invest in a country where people have such a mindset? And what is with companies owned by local and international shareholders?
>The people that want to learn will be incredibly leveraged and provide a ton of value to society. Those who don't want to learn should be given enough for basic subsistence. A stipend which covers food, shelter, clothing, catastrophic healthcare, reasonable water access, and unlimited data.
Great, so will that come before or after Donald Trump implements socialized medicine and free education? You're definitely going to get your automation, but the profits from that automation are going to accrue in the hands of a very, very small elite minority.
Great, so will that come before or after Donald Trump implements socialized medicine and free education? You're definitely going to get your automation, but the profits from that automation are going to accrue in the hands of a very, very small elite minority.
I'm starting to think that the tax rate on capital/profit should be somehow correlated with how advanced technology is. Increased technology -> greater productive leverage (inputs give more outputs) -> greater financial return. Thus, a larger cut should be used to better society overall, as the larger profits were made possible by the technology that a more advanced society enables.
This says nothing about _how_ that tax revenue should be spent. I think the current generation of government programs could be immensely improved. Worst case, if we are unable to increase the effectiveness of targeted government spending, then we just start cutting dividend checks. I will admit, this is the part I'm most uncertain about. Relatedly, I also think there is a lot of work we can do to vastly reduce the corruption and inefficiencies that are found in even the most modern governments.
The alternative would be letting those with the majority of capital increase their share of global wealth, as technology advances, at insane rates, and simply cross our fingers and hope they use their wealth wisely. Given that individuals have done nothing to bring about the tech that is present at the day of their birth, to me such a situation would feel incredibly unjust.
This is tricky stuff, however. My thoughts are slowly continuing to develop.
This says nothing about _how_ that tax revenue should be spent. I think the current generation of government programs could be immensely improved. Worst case, if we are unable to increase the effectiveness of targeted government spending, then we just start cutting dividend checks. I will admit, this is the part I'm most uncertain about. Relatedly, I also think there is a lot of work we can do to vastly reduce the corruption and inefficiencies that are found in even the most modern governments.
The alternative would be letting those with the majority of capital increase their share of global wealth, as technology advances, at insane rates, and simply cross our fingers and hope they use their wealth wisely. Given that individuals have done nothing to bring about the tech that is present at the day of their birth, to me such a situation would feel incredibly unjust.
This is tricky stuff, however. My thoughts are slowly continuing to develop.
It's possible that simply cutting dividend checks would be enough. Market capitalism is an interesting sorta-self-regulating mechanism for seeking products and services, and the big drawback is that it isn't a social structure: nowhere in there is any suggestion that the mechanism will produce a consumer class to keep the whole thing going. Without that class, it collapses.
It's possible if you just harness the engine by forcibly redistributing capital amount X (nonlinear amount scaling from negative to positive) to all (citizens? humans? living things?) then you guarantee the consumer class's existence, and make it possible to compete for the capital of that class through producing goods and services.
You might call it the Square Tax. Pay one tenth of one percent of your income, squared… proceeds to be divvied up equally as a human dividend. That neatly results in one dollar for every thousand you make, squared (or one dollar per every 'K' of income, squared). It also means you hit a limit at exactly a million dollars of income a year. I think it's safe to say if you're in a basic income/human dividend society and you still contrive to earn a million dollars a year you need to re-evaluate what you're doing with your life, and/or you already have enough resources that you REALLY don't need to be working yourself into the grave to get more: believe it or not, other people can do things too ;)
It's possible if you just harness the engine by forcibly redistributing capital amount X (nonlinear amount scaling from negative to positive) to all (citizens? humans? living things?) then you guarantee the consumer class's existence, and make it possible to compete for the capital of that class through producing goods and services.
You might call it the Square Tax. Pay one tenth of one percent of your income, squared… proceeds to be divvied up equally as a human dividend. That neatly results in one dollar for every thousand you make, squared (or one dollar per every 'K' of income, squared). It also means you hit a limit at exactly a million dollars of income a year. I think it's safe to say if you're in a basic income/human dividend society and you still contrive to earn a million dollars a year you need to re-evaluate what you're doing with your life, and/or you already have enough resources that you REALLY don't need to be working yourself into the grave to get more: believe it or not, other people can do things too ;)
the profits from that automation are going to accrue in the hands of a very, very small elite minority
Why would all profits from new efficiencies go to owners? Generally, efficiencies accrue to consumers through lower prices, unless there is some barrier to entry for that given market.
Furniture is a great example. In the past it was hand made, now much of the process is automated (machines size and cut the wood). That didn't make furniture makers more profitable, it just led to cheaper furniture for consumers.
Why would all profits from new efficiencies go to owners? Generally, efficiencies accrue to consumers through lower prices, unless there is some barrier to entry for that given market.
Furniture is a great example. In the past it was hand made, now much of the process is automated (machines size and cut the wood). That didn't make furniture makers more profitable, it just led to cheaper furniture for consumers.
> Generally, efficiencies accrue to consumers through lower prices
What good is that without a source of income from employment? Even UBI proposals are for far less than the current median income. At best the two will cancel each other out, though that is a pretty optimistic assumption since most of the motivation for automation is to reduce costs while maintaining prices and increasing profits.
What good is that without a source of income from employment? Even UBI proposals are for far less than the current median income. At best the two will cancel each other out, though that is a pretty optimistic assumption since most of the motivation for automation is to reduce costs while maintaining prices and increasing profits.
motivation for automation is to reduce costs while maintaining prices and increasing profits
The same thing will happen when the cotton gin replaced manual labor back in 1793. Profits won't go to owners since anyone can buy a machine and offer a lower price as well.
The only time I've ever seen extra profits entirely captured by owners is when there are regulatory barriers to competition.
The same thing will happen when the cotton gin replaced manual labor back in 1793. Profits won't go to owners since anyone can buy a machine and offer a lower price as well.
The only time I've ever seen extra profits entirely captured by owners is when there are regulatory barriers to competition.
>anyone can buy a machine and offer a lower price as well
Tell me more about how I can afford to open a new billion dollar factory.
Tell me more about how I can afford to open a new billion dollar factory.
How about adding a very dark twist: pay people to not breed. Everything else would just be a buildup for universal suffering just a few generations down the line.
I don't think that is a viable thing because I think it would produce adverse reactions. It'd work out just fine for myself, but not so much for others. If someone is getting paid to stay child-free, does a woman get dinged for being pregnant while the man denies responsibility? Do we have everyone's DNA on file and run the baby's dna for possible matches? Do abortions count as staying child-free or does that deduct from the bonus? Does the child-free money mean that folks with children are doing a lot worse than single folks or childless couples? After all, they are now trying to feed more people yet have less money to work from. How do you handle folks breeding for religious reasons?
I'd much rather go with increased sex and child-rearing education partnered with free access to birth control and health care. Free voluntary sterilisation beginning at around 25, possibly with a one-time monetary payout, depending on how many previous children one has and their age (lower amounts for being older). Nudge folks to have few or zero children.
I'd much rather go with increased sex and child-rearing education partnered with free access to birth control and health care. Free voluntary sterilisation beginning at around 25, possibly with a one-time monetary payout, depending on how many previous children one has and their age (lower amounts for being older). Nudge folks to have few or zero children.
> Pay people to not breed.
Wealthy people are already much less likely to procreate [1], although I'm not going to act as if that was planned.
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/#the-richer-the-people-...
Wealthy people are already much less likely to procreate [1], although I'm not going to act as if that was planned.
[1] https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/#the-richer-the-people-...
Paying people lowers the birth rate.
More specifically: Women that are empowered and employed have opportunities other than raising children, and birth rates naturally decline.
No, although that's a thing too.
People with more money have access to birth control and various entertainment options.
People with more money have access to birth control and various entertainment options.
There's a lot of people in Texas with a lot of money and they sure as hell don't have easy access to birth control. The state's seemingly doing everything it can to obliterate it. The teenage pregnancy rates in some parts of Texas are similar to developing countries.
I don't see how that couldn't be trivially tricked.
1) I sign up and get a reasonably high compensation, like 4x basic income 2) While I'm enjoying this period, I build up the skills to get an even more rewarding life situation 3) Move a country and enjoy things even better
Even if it would be permanent treatment for a high compensation over the years, I could freeze my juice and use it whenever I want it.
1) I sign up and get a reasonably high compensation, like 4x basic income 2) While I'm enjoying this period, I build up the skills to get an even more rewarding life situation 3) Move a country and enjoy things even better
Even if it would be permanent treatment for a high compensation over the years, I could freeze my juice and use it whenever I want it.
Where? Who pays?
Right now, we allow immigration. If we continue that but pay people not to breed, then we're just getting rid of Americans. This is called "ethnic cleansing", and is frequently considered to be unacceptable.
You can't legitimately claim we have too many people while letting more arrive.
Right now, we allow immigration. If we continue that but pay people not to breed, then we're just getting rid of Americans. This is called "ethnic cleansing", and is frequently considered to be unacceptable.
You can't legitimately claim we have too many people while letting more arrive.
I'd add some more to that stipend - enough "stuff" that people can make their own art, and otherwise get started making physical things.
I get that part of the point of "unlimited data" is to provide people what they need to join the "productive elite". It's just there's ways people can be amazing that aren't information-based; thinking in terms of Diamond Age, you'd want everyone to have a matter stipend, as well.
(I think you get this tho)
I get that part of the point of "unlimited data" is to provide people what they need to join the "productive elite". It's just there's ways people can be amazing that aren't information-based; thinking in terms of Diamond Age, you'd want everyone to have a matter stipend, as well.
(I think you get this tho)
> A stipend which covers food, shelter, clothing, catastrophic healthcare, reasonable water access, and unlimited data.
I agree with this as a laudable goal, but what happens after a population free from work and want doubles and then doubles again?
I agree with this as a laudable goal, but what happens after a population free from work and want doubles and then doubles again?
In capitalism, the system trusts that companies that have already acquired some market and cashflow will continue to strive for more market share or expanded markets, or better profitability, even further the system depends upon that desire to advance our society and balance our markets.
When we talk of people, I think that still applies, we should both trust that most people won't just sit back and be satisfied with a static cashflow, and they will strive for something more.
When we talk of people, I think that still applies, we should both trust that most people won't just sit back and be satisfied with a static cashflow, and they will strive for something more.
People in developed societies tend to want more than the minimum. They want to invest time in something that makes them fulfilled and not merely spend their entire life raising babies. Further they recognize that given finite resources that they can do better for fewer kids.
This isn't much of a problem in current developed nations, I don't see a good reason to suppose it will become so.
This isn't much of a problem in current developed nations, I don't see a good reason to suppose it will become so.
I don't know who you've been talking to, but most people I know think "raising babies" is the fulfilling part, not other stuff.
Family focused people realize that finite resources available to them are best invested in fewer kids. How many of the people that find raising babies the fulfilling part are raising 8?
All the ones with 8 kids.
Perhaps change such a stipend to include comprehensive health care and actual education instead of just data.
Comprehensive health care, including birth control, tends to produce smaller families. Elder care would already be included with the food, shelter, and clothing portion of the stipend - so having someone to take care of you isn't a concern. Nor is having children to work in your factory or farm. Teach folks how to avoid having children: Teach them what to do if they want to have children. Teach them about child-rearing, teach them facts showing how spacing apart children makes for healthier children. Make sure to teach all this to both men and women, on top of other things.
The best part about these sort of things is that they tend to work, even in populations that traditionally have large families. The fact that these sorts of things tend to work alleviates my own personal fear of the population doubling and then doubling again. Some forms of religion might prove to be a difficult group at first, but I think that will be a small enough minority to not worry too much about it.
Comprehensive health care, including birth control, tends to produce smaller families. Elder care would already be included with the food, shelter, and clothing portion of the stipend - so having someone to take care of you isn't a concern. Nor is having children to work in your factory or farm. Teach folks how to avoid having children: Teach them what to do if they want to have children. Teach them about child-rearing, teach them facts showing how spacing apart children makes for healthier children. Make sure to teach all this to both men and women, on top of other things.
The best part about these sort of things is that they tend to work, even in populations that traditionally have large families. The fact that these sorts of things tend to work alleviates my own personal fear of the population doubling and then doubling again. Some forms of religion might prove to be a difficult group at first, but I think that will be a small enough minority to not worry too much about it.
Why would you keep having more and more children when you didn't have to? I have it on good authority that most women aspire to do other things than just pop out as many as they can.
There are plenty of neighborhoods and even countries that might give you pause. There are plenty of people for whom having children is their only goal, their only live purpose, and the only meaningful thing they do in their life besides living.
In any population, there are sub-populations with higher and lower fertility.
Over time, because of differential reproduction, these sub-populations will eventually come to dominate, and form the majority of the whole population.
At that point, overall population increase begins and accelerates indefinitely until it hits a Malthusian wall of scarcity.
This process is the same regardless of what distinguishes the higher-fertility subgroups. It could be religion, or genes, or culture, or any combination of these. In any case, those characteristics will eventually dominate.
So one way or another, we will overpopulate and be forced to stop, unless we stop the process of high-fertility subgroup domination using some sort of long-term planning. In the end the only permanent solution may be some fixed-proportion guided reproduction regime, or perhaps a fixed genome mix that we maintain at all times. No natural gene recombination may be allowed, no natural mutations may be allowed to persist.
The current reprieve from this Malthusian tautology is the temporary result of the Industrial revolution and associated cultural shifts colliding with old-time cultural constructs. It couldn't last more than a century or so. Already, differential fertility of massive and obvious. Fertility of very conservative people is 2.35, of the most liberal it is 1.6. Subgroups like Amish, orthodox Jews, and conservative Muslims, and low-IQ people are rapidly growing in the population.
The Amish population doubles every 20-25 years; a simple calculation reveals they'll be hundreds of millions of people within a couple centuries, and billions a couple decades after that. They will grow until something stops their reproduction. The only question is what that something will be.
Evolution will win out in the end. Life finds a way. And it has all the time in the universe to do so.
Over time, because of differential reproduction, these sub-populations will eventually come to dominate, and form the majority of the whole population.
At that point, overall population increase begins and accelerates indefinitely until it hits a Malthusian wall of scarcity.
This process is the same regardless of what distinguishes the higher-fertility subgroups. It could be religion, or genes, or culture, or any combination of these. In any case, those characteristics will eventually dominate.
So one way or another, we will overpopulate and be forced to stop, unless we stop the process of high-fertility subgroup domination using some sort of long-term planning. In the end the only permanent solution may be some fixed-proportion guided reproduction regime, or perhaps a fixed genome mix that we maintain at all times. No natural gene recombination may be allowed, no natural mutations may be allowed to persist.
The current reprieve from this Malthusian tautology is the temporary result of the Industrial revolution and associated cultural shifts colliding with old-time cultural constructs. It couldn't last more than a century or so. Already, differential fertility of massive and obvious. Fertility of very conservative people is 2.35, of the most liberal it is 1.6. Subgroups like Amish, orthodox Jews, and conservative Muslims, and low-IQ people are rapidly growing in the population.
The Amish population doubles every 20-25 years; a simple calculation reveals they'll be hundreds of millions of people within a couple centuries, and billions a couple decades after that. They will grow until something stops their reproduction. The only question is what that something will be.
Evolution will win out in the end. Life finds a way. And it has all the time in the universe to do so.
> and low-IQ people are rapidly growing in the population
Do you have evidence that disproves the Flynn effect…?
Do you have evidence that disproves the Flynn effect…?
Here's some reading to get you started: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_and_intelligence#Lat...
Also - If you think the Flynn effect (measured increases in average IQ over time) contradicts the hypothesis that low-IQ people have more kids, you're confused. Both can be true at the same time, if the Flynn effect is due to environmental changes and not eugenic breeding (which seems to be scientists' tentative conclusion right now).
Also - If you think the Flynn effect (measured increases in average IQ over time) contradicts the hypothesis that low-IQ people have more kids, you're confused. Both can be true at the same time, if the Flynn effect is due to environmental changes and not eugenic breeding (which seems to be scientists' tentative conclusion right now).
When someone shows me a picture of exponential growth I always ask whether they're sure it isn't a sigmoid curve. In the case of population, extrapolations such as yours rest on the implicit assumption that motivating factors will never change.
For example, I was a bit surprised about your mention of the Amish population doubling, and went to read a few articles to learn more about that. Consider this quote from one in a Lancaster County, PA paper (which seems like a well-informed source since it sits in the middle of Amish country):
Ben Riehl, an Amish farmer, said the local settlement is growing “as fast or faster than it ever has.” However, he thinks families are getting somewhat smaller. A family may have five children these days, rather than nine or more.
He attributes that to the shift away from farming, a vocation that lends itself to large families.
Demographics are just not a one-way street. Certainly there are strong incentives and traditions to pop out lots of children in some contexts. But those incentives change, and do people's behaviors. We're going to be overrun by _________!' is a common anxiety that has been refuted over and over again by anthropological studies. It only makes sense in models where you assume everyone acts independently and populations and individuals don't really interact with each other.
For example, I was a bit surprised about your mention of the Amish population doubling, and went to read a few articles to learn more about that. Consider this quote from one in a Lancaster County, PA paper (which seems like a well-informed source since it sits in the middle of Amish country):
Ben Riehl, an Amish farmer, said the local settlement is growing “as fast or faster than it ever has.” However, he thinks families are getting somewhat smaller. A family may have five children these days, rather than nine or more.
He attributes that to the shift away from farming, a vocation that lends itself to large families.
Demographics are just not a one-way street. Certainly there are strong incentives and traditions to pop out lots of children in some contexts. But those incentives change, and do people's behaviors. We're going to be overrun by _________!' is a common anxiety that has been refuted over and over again by anthropological studies. It only makes sense in models where you assume everyone acts independently and populations and individuals don't really interact with each other.
Well, there's nothing that says the Amish are homogeneous or must stay that way.
Even among Amish, there will be some sub-groups where fertility falls, and others where it stays the same or rises.
So, the Amish who reduce fertility (like those you quoted) will eventually be outnumbered by those other groups of Amish who continued to reproduce at higher rates.
Even if the differential is tiny, and the high-population group is initially a single individual, it will eventually dominate. Heck, even with zero high-fertility sub-population, one will eventually mutate into existence and then dominate. This is evolution.
Maybe it'll be 50 years, or 150, or 1,000 years. What you're saying could affect the timing of the wheat-and-chessboard outcome, but it doesn't change that outcome.
>Demographics are just not a one-way street. Certainly there are strong incentives and traditions to pop out lots of children in some contexts. But those incentives change, and do people's behaviors.
You're still imagining that the base "rules" like human nature are invariant. For example, you're talking about "incentives", as though people respond to incentives in fixed ways.
But they don't. Even if the incentives change to encourage low populations, some subgroup will quasi-irrationally ignore those incentives any over-reproduce anyway. Eventually, that subgroup and their quasi-irrational characteristics will dominate.
>We're going to be overrun by _________!' is a common anxiety that has been refuted over and over again by anthropological studies. It only makes sense in models where you assume everyone acts independently and populations and individuals don't really interact with each other.
Well first, you seem to be making some implied xenophobia accusation. Nothing in my comment identified any "we" nor any "_blank_" that "we" would be overrun by. This has nothing to do with fear. I simply said something about population dynamics that applied to all organisms of all species everywhere.
In addition, usually the identity lines aren't that clear and my point doesn't require them to be. I clearly talked about sub-populations who come to dominate their identity group, which is different from one identity group dominating another. Both can occur.
I'd ask that you please don't imply in some accusation of irrational immoral xenophobia on my part, and don't attribute emotions like xenophobic "anxiety" to me without me stating them. It's just not productive.
Regarding your narrow point, 'We're going to be overrun by _________!' has not been refuted. Quite the opposite - historically, it's come true many, many times: Native Americans got overrun by fast-breeding Europeans. Ainu were overrun by fast-breeding Japanese. Berbers were overrun by Arabs. Many ancient tribes overran other tribes (e.g. Zulu overran many other tribes). And so on.
>When someone shows me a picture of exponential growth I always ask whether they're sure it isn't a sigmoid curve.
I agree in general. But here's why I'm sure this isn't a sigmoid curve: Life began on Earth 3.8 billion years ago and population has always been exponential for every species, anywhere, ever.
The only major exception I can think of is humans since the industrial revolution, and evidence shows that this is temporary. I'd be happy to hear about other examples (though I suspect they'd also be temporary or very strange exceptions that prove the rule).
If we want it to be a sigmoid curve, we must choose to make it a sigmoid curve using policy.
Even among Amish, there will be some sub-groups where fertility falls, and others where it stays the same or rises.
So, the Amish who reduce fertility (like those you quoted) will eventually be outnumbered by those other groups of Amish who continued to reproduce at higher rates.
Even if the differential is tiny, and the high-population group is initially a single individual, it will eventually dominate. Heck, even with zero high-fertility sub-population, one will eventually mutate into existence and then dominate. This is evolution.
Maybe it'll be 50 years, or 150, or 1,000 years. What you're saying could affect the timing of the wheat-and-chessboard outcome, but it doesn't change that outcome.
>Demographics are just not a one-way street. Certainly there are strong incentives and traditions to pop out lots of children in some contexts. But those incentives change, and do people's behaviors.
You're still imagining that the base "rules" like human nature are invariant. For example, you're talking about "incentives", as though people respond to incentives in fixed ways.
But they don't. Even if the incentives change to encourage low populations, some subgroup will quasi-irrationally ignore those incentives any over-reproduce anyway. Eventually, that subgroup and their quasi-irrational characteristics will dominate.
>We're going to be overrun by _________!' is a common anxiety that has been refuted over and over again by anthropological studies. It only makes sense in models where you assume everyone acts independently and populations and individuals don't really interact with each other.
Well first, you seem to be making some implied xenophobia accusation. Nothing in my comment identified any "we" nor any "_blank_" that "we" would be overrun by. This has nothing to do with fear. I simply said something about population dynamics that applied to all organisms of all species everywhere.
In addition, usually the identity lines aren't that clear and my point doesn't require them to be. I clearly talked about sub-populations who come to dominate their identity group, which is different from one identity group dominating another. Both can occur.
I'd ask that you please don't imply in some accusation of irrational immoral xenophobia on my part, and don't attribute emotions like xenophobic "anxiety" to me without me stating them. It's just not productive.
Regarding your narrow point, 'We're going to be overrun by _________!' has not been refuted. Quite the opposite - historically, it's come true many, many times: Native Americans got overrun by fast-breeding Europeans. Ainu were overrun by fast-breeding Japanese. Berbers were overrun by Arabs. Many ancient tribes overran other tribes (e.g. Zulu overran many other tribes). And so on.
>When someone shows me a picture of exponential growth I always ask whether they're sure it isn't a sigmoid curve.
I agree in general. But here's why I'm sure this isn't a sigmoid curve: Life began on Earth 3.8 billion years ago and population has always been exponential for every species, anywhere, ever.
The only major exception I can think of is humans since the industrial revolution, and evidence shows that this is temporary. I'd be happy to hear about other examples (though I suspect they'd also be temporary or very strange exceptions that prove the rule).
If we want it to be a sigmoid curve, we must choose to make it a sigmoid curve using policy.
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Well-off people haven't been known for their high birthrates.
Right, but what if one is not the cause of the other, but rather they both have the same root cause. e.g. Well-off people have a personality that both makes them less likely to procreate and also likely to be a big earner.
Then, you give people that don't have that personality trait a bunch of money, you can't expect that persons behavior to be the same.
Then, you give people that don't have that personality trait a bunch of money, you can't expect that persons behavior to be the same.
As I understood, there is a causal relationship. Not needing children to support you when you get old, and being able to get your first couple of kids past the infant mortality barrier, tend to result in fewer children overall.
Not everyone is capable of being a thought worker, but most people desire to feel useful. Providing UBI is just the tip of the iceberg, what you are proposing requires an unprecedented sea change in human psychology.
Not really, Island people in some areas of Asia have bountyless fish, fruit and vegetables and the lack of a proper job doesn't seem to depress them.
Human psychology, probably not. Western psychology, most definitely. People don't even ask who your family is or where do you live anymore. The first question is always, what do you do?
That is simply a reflection of what folks find important. It used to be important who your family was, as it kind of indicated your place in society and contributed to a stereotype. Same for your residence.
It just isn't as important as important as what you do for a living as it doesn't say anything about you like your career choice does. That is, unless it seems like an interesting and defining factor.
I personally get asked where I'm from quite often - well before anyone asks me what my job is. I'm an immigrant and speak with an accent. The job is secondary: i'll occasionally get asked if I wound up in Norway for work, other times folks will occasionally ask somewhere in the conversation. My accent makes it less of a defining characteristic.
The other thing I'll state is that you can answer the question differently so that you are in control over what defines you. You might have a McJob. Nothing to write home about, but you don't mind it so much and it pays the bills. But you program/make music/artwork/have hobbies in your free time. Answer that bit. Make the job secondary. Ask the question to others differently. It might not become popular in the whole of society, but you might be happier in your personal interactions.
It just isn't as important as important as what you do for a living as it doesn't say anything about you like your career choice does. That is, unless it seems like an interesting and defining factor.
I personally get asked where I'm from quite often - well before anyone asks me what my job is. I'm an immigrant and speak with an accent. The job is secondary: i'll occasionally get asked if I wound up in Norway for work, other times folks will occasionally ask somewhere in the conversation. My accent makes it less of a defining characteristic.
The other thing I'll state is that you can answer the question differently so that you are in control over what defines you. You might have a McJob. Nothing to write home about, but you don't mind it so much and it pays the bills. But you program/make music/artwork/have hobbies in your free time. Answer that bit. Make the job secondary. Ask the question to others differently. It might not become popular in the whole of society, but you might be happier in your personal interactions.
One of those things is how you spend 40+ hours of your non-sleeping week. The other two are completely irrelevant to anyone but yourself.
What would you even say about your family? They exist? "My mom died of cancer, thanks for asking."?
If you have a problem with the way things are, at least think of something reasonable to replace it.
What would you even say about your family? They exist? "My mom died of cancer, thanks for asking."?
If you have a problem with the way things are, at least think of something reasonable to replace it.
>The other two are completely irrelevant to anyone but yourself.
Are they really tho? To know where you are going, you first need to learn where you came from. This also applies to other humans, knowing a bit about their background helps you empathize better with them and understand their reasoning better.
In that regard "job" has become the new class to a certain degree. Tell somebody what you are working and many people will base their whole idea about you on just that. Even tho you might not even like working that job and are pretty much forced to do it due to a lack of better options.
This also has the effect that specialization is considered the peak of knowledge, while jack-of-all-trade skills are increasingly undervalued. You either spent large parts of your whole life pursuing that one specific thing or you are considered a screw-up by many people.
Are they really tho? To know where you are going, you first need to learn where you came from. This also applies to other humans, knowing a bit about their background helps you empathize better with them and understand their reasoning better.
In that regard "job" has become the new class to a certain degree. Tell somebody what you are working and many people will base their whole idea about you on just that. Even tho you might not even like working that job and are pretty much forced to do it due to a lack of better options.
This also has the effect that specialization is considered the peak of knowledge, while jack-of-all-trade skills are increasingly undervalued. You either spent large parts of your whole life pursuing that one specific thing or you are considered a screw-up by many people.
I often talk about the need to preserve the right to work for the masses. Many people rebut this with the idea that work is coerced for the masses and that it should not be. These are actually essentially unrelated issues. Wanting to not coerce people into working is not at all incompatible with my position. In theory, they both advocate greater choice.
Unfortunately, in practice, people who are pro UBI are often taking a position that is highly likely to deny people choice rather than grant them greater choice. When Elon Musk and Sam Altman talk about creating a UBI, they talk about the need for it due to the expectation that robots will displace people and there will be widespread, permanent unemployment. The articles with interviews from them then tell glowing, affectionate stories of how UBI can supplement your current low wage job and make your life better. They never actually write about the scenario being proposed: A world in which large numbers of people have no hope of getting paid work.
This scares me because people like Sam Altman and Elon Musk are job creators. And their vision of the future is "We eliminate your jobs, cut you a check for a pittance and call it even, then wash our hands of your pathetic future. Not our problem. You have your UBI." In the last Industrial Revolution when automation was threatening to eliminate jobs, we created the 40 hour work week to redistribute work more evenly and raise quality of life for the masses. We need the next step in the evolution of work here.
I find it frustrating that this seems to be so hard to get across to people. But, earlier today, I left a comment elsewhere on HN* in which I noted that some quadriplegics can work and that I was mentioning this because new quadriplegics are often suicidal, feeling like life is over. Maybe think of it in those terms. For many people, UBI in a world with drastically fewer jobs would be like a tragic accident cutting you off from the ability to work. People seem able to understand how horrifying it is to be quadriplegic and feel completely useless. Why can't you understand how horrifying that would be if you are "the wrong kind of employee" and your job has been eliminated and now you are being handed some check for less money than you made previously and basically being told "Fuck you. You are useless and don't deserve a job."
UBI and preserving the right to work are not necessarily antithetical. The problem is that most people who talk about UBI don't see that preserving the right to work is not going to just happen. It needs to be made to happen. And when job creators like Sam Altman are all "meh, you have your ubi, you don't need access to paid work" you are talking about a horrifying dystopian future which will almost certainly end in bloody revolution. Large numbers of unemployed people who have no hope of getting a job, time on their hands and just enough money to keep themselves fed but no hope of ever returning to a middle class lifestyle would make for a scary army.
I would be suicidal in that situation. But quite a lot of people would be homicidal, in part because it would be legitimate to feel this had been done to them. This is really not a scenario we need to create in the world.
* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14606810
Unfortunately, in practice, people who are pro UBI are often taking a position that is highly likely to deny people choice rather than grant them greater choice. When Elon Musk and Sam Altman talk about creating a UBI, they talk about the need for it due to the expectation that robots will displace people and there will be widespread, permanent unemployment. The articles with interviews from them then tell glowing, affectionate stories of how UBI can supplement your current low wage job and make your life better. They never actually write about the scenario being proposed: A world in which large numbers of people have no hope of getting paid work.
This scares me because people like Sam Altman and Elon Musk are job creators. And their vision of the future is "We eliminate your jobs, cut you a check for a pittance and call it even, then wash our hands of your pathetic future. Not our problem. You have your UBI." In the last Industrial Revolution when automation was threatening to eliminate jobs, we created the 40 hour work week to redistribute work more evenly and raise quality of life for the masses. We need the next step in the evolution of work here.
I find it frustrating that this seems to be so hard to get across to people. But, earlier today, I left a comment elsewhere on HN* in which I noted that some quadriplegics can work and that I was mentioning this because new quadriplegics are often suicidal, feeling like life is over. Maybe think of it in those terms. For many people, UBI in a world with drastically fewer jobs would be like a tragic accident cutting you off from the ability to work. People seem able to understand how horrifying it is to be quadriplegic and feel completely useless. Why can't you understand how horrifying that would be if you are "the wrong kind of employee" and your job has been eliminated and now you are being handed some check for less money than you made previously and basically being told "Fuck you. You are useless and don't deserve a job."
UBI and preserving the right to work are not necessarily antithetical. The problem is that most people who talk about UBI don't see that preserving the right to work is not going to just happen. It needs to be made to happen. And when job creators like Sam Altman are all "meh, you have your ubi, you don't need access to paid work" you are talking about a horrifying dystopian future which will almost certainly end in bloody revolution. Large numbers of unemployed people who have no hope of getting a job, time on their hands and just enough money to keep themselves fed but no hope of ever returning to a middle class lifestyle would make for a scary army.
I would be suicidal in that situation. But quite a lot of people would be homicidal, in part because it would be legitimate to feel this had been done to them. This is really not a scenario we need to create in the world.
* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14606810
Well said. I will now try to look from the perspective of a business owner, that has automated everything and doesn't need employees anymore. Let's look at the extreme case, where suddenly (e.g. in 10 years) all business in the world is 100% automated and owned by a handful of people and there is no UBI for the rest. As you rightly pointed out, a kind of revolt is to be expected, which however would be suppressed by the 100% automated police, which would place those poor rebels in a 100% automated jail or just get rid of them in some other 100% automated way. In the end all that's gonna remain is the handful of businessman, who only produce and trade goods between themselves. The amount of goods produced and traded will decrease drastically, which will be detrimental to the government (tax income), which by that time will probably be 100% automated as well. At this point in time, an optimist would inevitably notice that carbon footprint and pollution will also be drastically reduced. However, as business usually goes, those handful of businesses will compete with each other until there is eventually only one business left. There would inevitably be a moment of immense happiness and satisfaction for the one and undisputed winner of this game, but then life will just become boring. The guy will wander around, discuss this with his 100% automated personal assistant, think about it, maybe meditate a bit and would eventually decide look for fun at some other place (e.g. Mars). However, there will still remain some sneaky feeling in the back of his head, asking whether UBI would have actually been a better idea in the first place.
Well, for me, visions of "I, Robot" come to mind while reading through your paragraph. (If you don't know the plot, the robots try to take over.)
Things are not that simple.
When people talk about UBI as a solution for machines taking all the work, they can't be sure the machines will take all the work, but they can be absolutely sure 99% of the people will need to retrain, maybe for years, and try again and again until they find something worthwhile. And our current society simply does not allow that.
Another certainty is that for a long while salaries will trend down. Because machines will displace people faster than those people can move around. Without a support structure, we risk people averaging less than what they need to survive, for a looong while.
Besides, labor that comes with personal realization is rare even now, with plenty of jobs around. If we want people to have personal realization we must set things so that those people don't need their salary to live. At least not every month.
When people talk about UBI as a solution for machines taking all the work, they can't be sure the machines will take all the work, but they can be absolutely sure 99% of the people will need to retrain, maybe for years, and try again and again until they find something worthwhile. And our current society simply does not allow that.
Another certainty is that for a long while salaries will trend down. Because machines will displace people faster than those people can move around. Without a support structure, we risk people averaging less than what they need to survive, for a looong while.
Besides, labor that comes with personal realization is rare even now, with plenty of jobs around. If we want people to have personal realization we must set things so that those people don't need their salary to live. At least not every month.
I was formerly a UBI proponent but I think, at least, in the near to medium term, it's too much of a cultural shift about the role of work in life. That's why these days I'm more a fan of a negative income tax coupled with a repeal of the minimum wage. Consider if the "tax brackets" were something like:
What it essentially does is it provides a government money multiplier on low wage jobs. A company could offer $1/hr jobs, which the employee would perceive as $10/hr. That is, $1/hr = $2k/yr = $20k, after taxes. The negative income tax benefit decreases steadily, until eventually you start paying taxes, but there's always an incentive to work more or get a raise.
Just think of it! At $1/hr there would be a gazillion jobs for things like greeters at every store, crosswalk guards, picking up trash at the park. And people would be motivated to work for them because they're actually making $10/hr.
I think this is more politically palatable than UBI as well, too, since it avoids the issue of "moochers who will just sit around and collect their checks". Since with a NIT, if you don't work, you don't get anything.
I do foresee some issues making this actually feasible. For example, it certainly won't work for the employee to just receive $1/hr and then a big payout on tax day. I think we could adjust "withholding" to actually pay out what the employee will receive as part of their tax benefit, but it will be important to get it right or else they could be hit with a bad tax bill.
* 0 - $2k : -1,000%
* $2k - 4k : -500%
* $4k - 6k : -100%
* $6k - $8k : 0%
* $8k - $15k : 5%
* ...
* $10M+ : 40%
What it essentially does is it provides a government money multiplier on low wage jobs. A company could offer $1/hr jobs, which the employee would perceive as $10/hr. That is, $1/hr = $2k/yr = $20k, after taxes. The negative income tax benefit decreases steadily, until eventually you start paying taxes, but there's always an incentive to work more or get a raise.
Just think of it! At $1/hr there would be a gazillion jobs for things like greeters at every store, crosswalk guards, picking up trash at the park. And people would be motivated to work for them because they're actually making $10/hr.
I think this is more politically palatable than UBI as well, too, since it avoids the issue of "moochers who will just sit around and collect their checks". Since with a NIT, if you don't work, you don't get anything.
I do foresee some issues making this actually feasible. For example, it certainly won't work for the employee to just receive $1/hr and then a big payout on tax day. I think we could adjust "withholding" to actually pay out what the employee will receive as part of their tax benefit, but it will be important to get it right or else they could be hit with a bad tax bill.
> I was formerly a UBI proponent but I think, at least, in the near to medium term, it's too much of a cultural shift about the role of work in life. That's why these days I'm more a fan of a negative income tax coupled with a repeal of the minimum wage.
As usually defined, negative income tax (in an otherwise progressive income tax system) is the same as UBI in a progressive income tax system, but possibly with a range of regressive treatment (the simple credit form is isomorphic to UBI, the more common “deduction with proportional refund of unused deduction, usually at a high fraction like 50%”, has the regressiveness feature.
Unless the credited (or refundable proportion of the deduction) amount is greater than the annualized pre-policy-chnage minimum wage, it's also a decrease in the wage+credit income floor for full-time employed workers, so you risk pitting the unemployed against the working poor with this approach. A better approach, IMO, at plausibly-viable initial levels of the credit (effectively, the UBI level) is to index minimum wage to inflation, but reduce it, as an hourly wage (after applying the index) by the amount of the credit, divided by 2000.
(I'd also prefer tying the credit to a defined calculation based on a revenue stream, preferably a capital-income-heavy one, so it doesn't get reduced with automation, with a ratchet to prevent cuts in recessions.)
What you actually describe is progressive system where the bottom marginal rate is a large negative value, which isn't a typical NIT, but sort of like a super-EITC. This provides no benefit to those absolutely displaced from work, but maximum benefit to those employed at a rate which exactly exhausts the negative marginal rate brackets.
As usually defined, negative income tax (in an otherwise progressive income tax system) is the same as UBI in a progressive income tax system, but possibly with a range of regressive treatment (the simple credit form is isomorphic to UBI, the more common “deduction with proportional refund of unused deduction, usually at a high fraction like 50%”, has the regressiveness feature.
Unless the credited (or refundable proportion of the deduction) amount is greater than the annualized pre-policy-chnage minimum wage, it's also a decrease in the wage+credit income floor for full-time employed workers, so you risk pitting the unemployed against the working poor with this approach. A better approach, IMO, at plausibly-viable initial levels of the credit (effectively, the UBI level) is to index minimum wage to inflation, but reduce it, as an hourly wage (after applying the index) by the amount of the credit, divided by 2000.
(I'd also prefer tying the credit to a defined calculation based on a revenue stream, preferably a capital-income-heavy one, so it doesn't get reduced with automation, with a ratchet to prevent cuts in recessions.)
What you actually describe is progressive system where the bottom marginal rate is a large negative value, which isn't a typical NIT, but sort of like a super-EITC. This provides no benefit to those absolutely displaced from work, but maximum benefit to those employed at a rate which exactly exhausts the negative marginal rate brackets.
What's wrong with moochers collecting cheques? Is there some inherent value to you in there being no moochers out there? Or to put it another way, is it necessary to monetize all valuable interactions and behaviours so that we can reward them with our negative income tax? Is monetisation itself a good thing? Or is it sometimes a bad thing, but a tool, possibly not always appropriate?
I see this as merely a more complicated type of messaging and find the math of it to be... weird.
If I make no money, what stops me and a friend from starting two poem writing companies. He pays me 2k a year to write him a couple poems and I pay him 2k a year to write me a couple poems. Both of us end up making 18k a year profit and neither of us has to work.
It's a silly example, but the point is that not providing UBI to people who don't work... just means you create corruption to provide just enough work to get past the bar. So why bother?
Yes, we do want to incentivize productive behavior but denying UBI won't work and the harder you try to make rules as what qualifies as productive, the more you end up distorting the labor market.
If I make no money, what stops me and a friend from starting two poem writing companies. He pays me 2k a year to write him a couple poems and I pay him 2k a year to write me a couple poems. Both of us end up making 18k a year profit and neither of us has to work.
It's a silly example, but the point is that not providing UBI to people who don't work... just means you create corruption to provide just enough work to get past the bar. So why bother?
Yes, we do want to incentivize productive behavior but denying UBI won't work and the harder you try to make rules as what qualifies as productive, the more you end up distorting the labor market.
How about caring for your elderly parents? Or a mother looking after 3 children at home? Or cleaning up the common areas on the estate where you live? Are these worthless because they're unpaid?
What you call moochers, I call customers: please don't ignore the value of consumption in a market capitalist system. If I intend to prosper I need to come up with a way to sell those people something, and your 'moochers' might be the only people with time on their hands to investigate value and serve as watchdogs for abuses. Also, they'd have time to learn new things and invent new stuff. Don't underestimate the ingenuity of moochers! People get bored and think up things when they're left just sitting around. Perhaps not all of them, but it's still an important mechanism.
They have "1 Euro jobs" in germany, where people are allowed to work for 1 Euro/hour and keep their welfare benefits.
The moochers in this system are the companies who employ 1 euro-jobbers.
The moochers in this system are the companies who employ 1 euro-jobbers.
> This scares me because people like Sam Altman and Elon Musk are job creators.
No, they aren't. “Job creators” aren't a thing. They are labor purchasers, but that's only incidental and to the extent that labor has no cheaper substitute for their commercial users.
No, they aren't. “Job creators” aren't a thing. They are labor purchasers, but that's only incidental and to the extent that labor has no cheaper substitute for their commercial users.
The true job creators are the people buying their products. The factories are just arbitrage between demand and raw materials.
The true job creators are the people who fill whatever is the bottleneck for demanding new jobs.
For industries and products where capacity exists but production is limited by demand, more people buying their products create jobs (and more capitalists won't).
For industries and products did not exist despite people wanting it, R&D who create those products create new jobs, and people wanting such products don't - the jobs won't ever happen unless/until the particular product gets developed.
For industries and products where volume is limited by outside competition, local jobs are created by effective management and capital investments that make production more effective and bring/keep the jobs locally. In any case, the main initiative for change and the possibility for action comes from the factory, and not from the consumers.
Statement "The factories are just arbitrage between demand and raw materials." has truth only for pure commodity industries - and is not at all true for companies like those built by Sam Altman and Elon Musk given as examples above.
For industries and products where capacity exists but production is limited by demand, more people buying their products create jobs (and more capitalists won't).
For industries and products did not exist despite people wanting it, R&D who create those products create new jobs, and people wanting such products don't - the jobs won't ever happen unless/until the particular product gets developed.
For industries and products where volume is limited by outside competition, local jobs are created by effective management and capital investments that make production more effective and bring/keep the jobs locally. In any case, the main initiative for change and the possibility for action comes from the factory, and not from the consumers.
Statement "The factories are just arbitrage between demand and raw materials." has truth only for pure commodity industries - and is not at all true for companies like those built by Sam Altman and Elon Musk given as examples above.
If nobody wanted cars then Tesla would be bankrupt. People wanting cars creates jobs for those in the car manufacturing business. If Tesla makes a better car, they might have more people working for them over time.
It's hard to say if that creates any jobs at all, or simply shifts jobs from other companies that make cars. A lot of the companies in the Sam Altman portfolio are involved in "disruption", which is to say, shifting jobs from one company to another. They're not net creators. In many cases these companies succeed because they require fewer people to operate, so they're job destroying by nature. Wether or not that's a bad thing is irrelevant here, it's just a fact.
The only thing that actually creates jobs is demand, and the only way to create demand is to radically reshape what society is. The automobile created a huge shift in demand: Many people wanted a car because of the economic opportunity it brought, and with the car came other opportunities, like owning a house in the suburbs, owning a cottage, travelling more, and so on. It encouraged people to take on debt, to spend money they normally wouldn't spend, and to work harder to afford it.
There hasn't been anything quite as profound as that in the last century. The introduction of the internet has, if anything, eliminated demand for many things previously taken for granted like print media.
It's hard to say if that creates any jobs at all, or simply shifts jobs from other companies that make cars. A lot of the companies in the Sam Altman portfolio are involved in "disruption", which is to say, shifting jobs from one company to another. They're not net creators. In many cases these companies succeed because they require fewer people to operate, so they're job destroying by nature. Wether or not that's a bad thing is irrelevant here, it's just a fact.
The only thing that actually creates jobs is demand, and the only way to create demand is to radically reshape what society is. The automobile created a huge shift in demand: Many people wanted a car because of the economic opportunity it brought, and with the car came other opportunities, like owning a house in the suburbs, owning a cottage, travelling more, and so on. It encouraged people to take on debt, to spend money they normally wouldn't spend, and to work harder to afford it.
There hasn't been anything quite as profound as that in the last century. The introduction of the internet has, if anything, eliminated demand for many things previously taken for granted like print media.
I'd agree with the suspicion that UBI alone is not sufficient to handle our future economy. Though I'm not sure you have the right breakdown with what might be needed beyond UBI.
I've been feeling that in order to really accelerate/maintain a future economy beyond our current stagnation, some improved capital circulation mechanism is needed to release huge accumulations of capital from essentially centralized controls. This could be accomplished via multiple methods on a spectrum of compulsory / voluntary scale. From proposed taxes on capital or enticements to apply capital in non-traditional/higher-risk paths. If you can cause mega-accumulations of capital to actually circulate, I think that there would basically be no problem for people looking for work to find it.
I've been feeling that in order to really accelerate/maintain a future economy beyond our current stagnation, some improved capital circulation mechanism is needed to release huge accumulations of capital from essentially centralized controls. This could be accomplished via multiple methods on a spectrum of compulsory / voluntary scale. From proposed taxes on capital or enticements to apply capital in non-traditional/higher-risk paths. If you can cause mega-accumulations of capital to actually circulate, I think that there would basically be no problem for people looking for work to find it.
Though I'm not sure you have the right breakdown with what might be needed beyond UBI.
My comment was in no way intended to be comprehensive. A more comprehensive picture includes a need for universal basic health coverage and real solutions to the huge affordable housing crisis that has been going on for decades and only getting worse.
I write about my views on what I see as The Second Industrial Revolution and try to gather related posts here:
http://micheleincalifornia.blogspot.com/p/ir2.html
My comment was in no way intended to be comprehensive. A more comprehensive picture includes a need for universal basic health coverage and real solutions to the huge affordable housing crisis that has been going on for decades and only getting worse.
I write about my views on what I see as The Second Industrial Revolution and try to gather related posts here:
http://micheleincalifornia.blogspot.com/p/ir2.html
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that it was. I'll give that link a read as it seems we're somewhat on the same page in this area.
With respect the the housing affordability crisis: One symptom of capital accumulation is that competes with regular people for housing. Capital accumulation hurts housing prices to the extent that parking capital in housing that is being used by no one, or being used to just own housing and provide landlord income with a low positive benefit to society. As long is it's cheaper to buy existing houses and rent them vs deploying that same capital to building houses and selling them we will have an affordable housing crisis. And that is just one aspect of stagnant capital accumulation.
With respect the the housing affordability crisis: One symptom of capital accumulation is that competes with regular people for housing. Capital accumulation hurts housing prices to the extent that parking capital in housing that is being used by no one, or being used to just own housing and provide landlord income with a low positive benefit to society. As long is it's cheaper to buy existing houses and rent them vs deploying that same capital to building houses and selling them we will have an affordable housing crisis. And that is just one aspect of stagnant capital accumulation.
One of the problems is that average house size has more than doubled since the 1950s. Meanwhile, average number of people living in houses has shrunk, from about 3.5 to about 2.5, iirc. We also eliminated a lot of SROs and other housing well suited to single adults and childless couples. This occurred at a time when such housing wasn't really needed, but it was not brought back as demographics changed.
Maybe as the true wealth of the world grows massively due to productivity provided by automation the check we cut people shouldn't be what current people consider a pittance enough to live a waste of a life.
We are either feel a moral duty to keep those who don't contribute in poverty or believe we need to incentivize the rest of the slackers to keep their noses to the useless grindstone.
We can either keep both the useless moralizing and the social carrot long after they cease to make sense or we can recognize that sharing the wealth of the world makes increasing sense and lift each other up in lives where we make the meaning rather than finding it in doing pointless work.
We are either feel a moral duty to keep those who don't contribute in poverty or believe we need to incentivize the rest of the slackers to keep their noses to the useless grindstone.
We can either keep both the useless moralizing and the social carrot long after they cease to make sense or we can recognize that sharing the wealth of the world makes increasing sense and lift each other up in lives where we make the meaning rather than finding it in doing pointless work.
Let me briefly restate the gist of my point above:
UBI or no UBI, we need to preserve access to paid work for everyone to the best of our ability. We need to recognize a right to work that is not being discussed by most people who are pro UBI.
The value of the benefits granted by welfare programs are always eroded over time by inflation. What sounds like a lot of money today will become a pittance over time. These feel good, idealistic ideas touted by so many people seem to never recognize that if you have a UBI and no means whatsoever to improve your income beyond that because the tech giants have no plans to redistribute work, then you are pretty well fucked and your life is hopeless.
People like you seem to be big on the idea that people should not be compelled to work. I am not talking about compelling people to work. I am talking about not actively denying them the right to access paid work. There is a difference between the two, and it is actually quite large.
UBI or no UBI, we need to preserve access to paid work for everyone to the best of our ability. We need to recognize a right to work that is not being discussed by most people who are pro UBI.
The value of the benefits granted by welfare programs are always eroded over time by inflation. What sounds like a lot of money today will become a pittance over time. These feel good, idealistic ideas touted by so many people seem to never recognize that if you have a UBI and no means whatsoever to improve your income beyond that because the tech giants have no plans to redistribute work, then you are pretty well fucked and your life is hopeless.
People like you seem to be big on the idea that people should not be compelled to work. I am not talking about compelling people to work. I am talking about not actively denying them the right to access paid work. There is a difference between the two, and it is actually quite large.
Can you elaborate on what exactly do you mean by "right to paid work" in a world where a true market price for the work of many people will be approximately zero?
UBI is a solution for the problem where for a large part of society a honest full day's work is economically worthless, the society has no real need for their labor. If this wouldn't be expected to happen, then we wouldn't have to discuss UBI as much, but that's where we're heading.
I can even imagine a not-so-far future where the value of most work would be negative; i.e. we might involve people in producing some item, but it would be cheaper and more effective if they stayed away and didn't try to help; so all such work would be in essence a glorified crafts hobby with no practical purpose, and it would result in costs instead of payment.
UBI is a solution for the problem where for a large part of society a honest full day's work is economically worthless, the society has no real need for their labor. If this wouldn't be expected to happen, then we wouldn't have to discuss UBI as much, but that's where we're heading.
I can even imagine a not-so-far future where the value of most work would be negative; i.e. we might involve people in producing some item, but it would be cheaper and more effective if they stayed away and didn't try to help; so all such work would be in essence a glorified crafts hobby with no practical purpose, and it would result in costs instead of payment.
I probably cannot do it justice in a comment here, but, in a nutshell, there is a lot of unpaid work in the world. As one example, women's work is often unpaid. When it is turned into a paid job, it often pays really poorly.
Historically, women's work was compensated by a strong sense of family obligation. Men were expected to marry and/or support women they had sex with, especially if they got them pregnant. There is less and less expectation that a man is obligated to support a woman. There is more expectation that she can also go out and get a job, which sort of works if there are no children, except that very often due to social expectations, a lot of her time and energy still goes into traditional women's work. The social contract has become broken in a one-sided manner.
On Hacker News, you see people routinely say that content creators on the web are not entitled to be paid for their work, yet they expect there to be good, high level content readily available. And they expect fresh content to be constantly produced. A very high percentage of people on HN use adblockers and then say 'Not my problem" about how that is destroying the income of not just small time operators, but even long standing, established and respected publications. They often say things like "get a real job" when I comment on "So, how are writers supposed to get paid?" They expect writing to be done for free on a regular basis, basically.
There is plenty of work happening right now that isn't getting compensated and that people who make a far better than average hourly wage don't seem to think deserves compensation. So, I see a future in which people with UBI are doing valuable work like content creation while not being paid for it. I would much rather we figure out a better means to monetize work being done right here, right now instead of acting like "work is simply going the way of the dinosaur." No, it isn't. But many people simply don't want to pay the people doing the work.
In a tribal culture, if the tribe makes a big kill, everyone eats. The high ranking people may get the better cuts of meat, but no one goes hungry. They are considered part of the extended family in some sense. This sense of obligation has eroded and an awful lot of people simply seem blind to the many things that must happen that are needed in this world and are valuable, but that they don't want to pay for.
There was a discussion on HN recently in which someone said that the US has 5% of the world population, but 22% of the world's prisoners (IIRC). And it is not illegal in this country to treat prisoners as slave labor. So there is apparently a vast prison industrial complex churning out cheap products using slave labor where the workers are not paid. There is insufficient hue and cry over this situation.
We need very much to design a world in which more people have access to the means to create wealth for themselves. If we are going to displace our historical practice of feeling familial or tribal obligation to take some minimum level of care and provisioning of everyone, then, no, just giving money is not enough. We need to give the means to make money.
Most wealthy people who get called millionaires or billionaires do not actually have a checking account with a million or a billion dollars in it. They have assets like stocks and bonds and land. These constitute a means to make money. When you give poor people money, but you deny them the means to make money, you are in no way giving them the life that rich people have. Rich people can get more if they want it or need it. UBI would be a fixed amount. And if it wasn't enough, well, fuck you.
Historically, women's work was compensated by a strong sense of family obligation. Men were expected to marry and/or support women they had sex with, especially if they got them pregnant. There is less and less expectation that a man is obligated to support a woman. There is more expectation that she can also go out and get a job, which sort of works if there are no children, except that very often due to social expectations, a lot of her time and energy still goes into traditional women's work. The social contract has become broken in a one-sided manner.
On Hacker News, you see people routinely say that content creators on the web are not entitled to be paid for their work, yet they expect there to be good, high level content readily available. And they expect fresh content to be constantly produced. A very high percentage of people on HN use adblockers and then say 'Not my problem" about how that is destroying the income of not just small time operators, but even long standing, established and respected publications. They often say things like "get a real job" when I comment on "So, how are writers supposed to get paid?" They expect writing to be done for free on a regular basis, basically.
There is plenty of work happening right now that isn't getting compensated and that people who make a far better than average hourly wage don't seem to think deserves compensation. So, I see a future in which people with UBI are doing valuable work like content creation while not being paid for it. I would much rather we figure out a better means to monetize work being done right here, right now instead of acting like "work is simply going the way of the dinosaur." No, it isn't. But many people simply don't want to pay the people doing the work.
In a tribal culture, if the tribe makes a big kill, everyone eats. The high ranking people may get the better cuts of meat, but no one goes hungry. They are considered part of the extended family in some sense. This sense of obligation has eroded and an awful lot of people simply seem blind to the many things that must happen that are needed in this world and are valuable, but that they don't want to pay for.
There was a discussion on HN recently in which someone said that the US has 5% of the world population, but 22% of the world's prisoners (IIRC). And it is not illegal in this country to treat prisoners as slave labor. So there is apparently a vast prison industrial complex churning out cheap products using slave labor where the workers are not paid. There is insufficient hue and cry over this situation.
We need very much to design a world in which more people have access to the means to create wealth for themselves. If we are going to displace our historical practice of feeling familial or tribal obligation to take some minimum level of care and provisioning of everyone, then, no, just giving money is not enough. We need to give the means to make money.
Most wealthy people who get called millionaires or billionaires do not actually have a checking account with a million or a billion dollars in it. They have assets like stocks and bonds and land. These constitute a means to make money. When you give poor people money, but you deny them the means to make money, you are in no way giving them the life that rich people have. Rich people can get more if they want it or need it. UBI would be a fixed amount. And if it wasn't enough, well, fuck you.
The type of work that you list is work where it won't be paid work - I mean, whatever system you create so that people get paid for it is in some way UBI in disguise; the market value for that work is near zero (as you say, people simply don't want to pay the people doing that work), so you may get paid "for" that work, but de facto you'll get paid just because. No matter if you frame such transfer payments as charity or as forced redistribution, it's not payment for the work, it's paid because the society decided to pay you despite the work having no economic value - as in the principle you mention, that the tribe gets a big kill and everyone eats; just because they're part of the tribe and not because of the work they do.
I understand your arguments of going above and beyond that, having much more than UBI - however, as you can see in this thread, even that level is quite contentious, a large jump from the current situation and not guaranteed to happen. Going beyond that is, obviously, even less likely to happen. If/when we'll see a realistic support for UBI, then we may start discussing about maybe implementing what you state, right now it's just wishful thinking.
I understand your arguments of going above and beyond that, having much more than UBI - however, as you can see in this thread, even that level is quite contentious, a large jump from the current situation and not guaranteed to happen. Going beyond that is, obviously, even less likely to happen. If/when we'll see a realistic support for UBI, then we may start discussing about maybe implementing what you state, right now it's just wishful thinking.
Currently, UBI is also wishful thinking. So why not wish for something that doesn't disempower the masses instead of something that does?
The world does not have to bend to my will. But I also do not have to bend to its. I can continue to desire a better system for how we treat people, no matter how ridiculous that seems to so many people.
The world does not have to bend to my will. But I also do not have to bend to its. I can continue to desire a better system for how we treat people, no matter how ridiculous that seems to so many people.
> UBI or no UBI, we need to preserve access to paid work for everyone to the best of our ability.
No - we don't need to preserve access to paid work.
We want to enable people to work to benefit themselves, rather then their employer.
> The value of the benefits granted by welfare programs are always eroded over time by inflation
Governments can set both inflation, and benefits. Not increasing the latter to keep pace with the former is a deliberate political choice, primarily for the benefit of the rich.
No - we don't need to preserve access to paid work.
We want to enable people to work to benefit themselves, rather then their employer.
> The value of the benefits granted by welfare programs are always eroded over time by inflation
Governments can set both inflation, and benefits. Not increasing the latter to keep pace with the former is a deliberate political choice, primarily for the benefit of the rich.
My phrasing does not presume the individual is an employee per se. Paid work also includes contract work, freelance work and owning your own small business.
Work != Jobs
I'm all for the right to work, I just really don't think jobs are at all necessary to provide that right.
> people like Sam Altman and Elon Musk are job creators. And their vision of the future is "We eliminate your jobs, cut you a check for a pittance and call it even, then wash our hands of your pathetic future. Not our problem.
People are quite capable of finding something to do on their own without being forced into by the necessity of earning a wage. People write blogs, build cars from kits, maintain gardens, volunteer, raise kids, make youtube videos, play in bands, perfect recipes, etc... frequently for little or no monetary compensation.
To presume that people need Sam Altman and Elon Musk to make jobs so that people can leading fulfilling lives is incredibly dismissive of people's capabilities.
> For many people, UBI in a world with drastically fewer jobs would be like a tragic accident cutting you off from the ability to work.
Our present alternative to UBI is the idiotic combination of unemployment/welfare and a minimum wage. We either pay you to not work (distorting the labor market), or we force employers to provide a basic income at an above market rate (also distorting the labor market). Any jobs that don't provide enough value to the employer don't exist.
By gradually decoupling jobs from providing a basic standard of living to our citizens, we allow them to choose what type of work to occupy themselves. If they wish to occupy themselves with something we can automate at an equivalent quality level for a certain price, they simply need to beat that price. They can do this because they receive UBI and any further income provides an improved quality of life.
> Why can't you understand how horrifying that would be if you are "the wrong kind of employee" and your job has been eliminated and now you are being handed some check for less money than you made previously and basically being told "Fuck you. You are useless and don't deserve a job."
Someone should not have a right to force other people to pay higher prices just because someone thinks they should be paid a certain amount to do their job. Many of my friends who graduated from college in 2008 and 2009 struggled to find decent paying jobs. Why should they have to pay higher prices so that someone who does have a decent paying job can hold onto it?
> In the last Industrial Revolution when automation was threatening to eliminate jobs, we created the 40 hour work week to redistribute work more evenly and raise quality of life for the masses.
I'm pretty sure supporters of the 8hr day were primarily concerned with the health and well being of workers, not with reducing unemployment. Given that the process of implementing the 40 hr week took almost 150 years, it's pretty hard to tie it to automation eliminating jobs.
> you are talking about a horrifying dystopian future which will almost certainly end in bloody revolution. Large numbers of unemployed people who have no hope of getting a job, time on their hands and just enough money to keep themselves fed but no hope of ever returning to a middle class lifestyle would make for a scary army.
While idle peasants certainly scare the capitalists, I think that the threat of violent revolution has been radically diminished by our unprecedented success in inventing new forms of entertainment. Violent revolution is also no longer practical in developed countries given the governments surveillance and military capabilities
Our current situation where people do pointless, mind numbing and demeaning work just to survive leads to plenty of depression and suicidality.
I'm all for the right to work, I just really don't think jobs are at all necessary to provide that right.
> people like Sam Altman and Elon Musk are job creators. And their vision of the future is "We eliminate your jobs, cut you a check for a pittance and call it even, then wash our hands of your pathetic future. Not our problem.
People are quite capable of finding something to do on their own without being forced into by the necessity of earning a wage. People write blogs, build cars from kits, maintain gardens, volunteer, raise kids, make youtube videos, play in bands, perfect recipes, etc... frequently for little or no monetary compensation.
To presume that people need Sam Altman and Elon Musk to make jobs so that people can leading fulfilling lives is incredibly dismissive of people's capabilities.
> For many people, UBI in a world with drastically fewer jobs would be like a tragic accident cutting you off from the ability to work.
Our present alternative to UBI is the idiotic combination of unemployment/welfare and a minimum wage. We either pay you to not work (distorting the labor market), or we force employers to provide a basic income at an above market rate (also distorting the labor market). Any jobs that don't provide enough value to the employer don't exist.
By gradually decoupling jobs from providing a basic standard of living to our citizens, we allow them to choose what type of work to occupy themselves. If they wish to occupy themselves with something we can automate at an equivalent quality level for a certain price, they simply need to beat that price. They can do this because they receive UBI and any further income provides an improved quality of life.
> Why can't you understand how horrifying that would be if you are "the wrong kind of employee" and your job has been eliminated and now you are being handed some check for less money than you made previously and basically being told "Fuck you. You are useless and don't deserve a job."
Someone should not have a right to force other people to pay higher prices just because someone thinks they should be paid a certain amount to do their job. Many of my friends who graduated from college in 2008 and 2009 struggled to find decent paying jobs. Why should they have to pay higher prices so that someone who does have a decent paying job can hold onto it?
> In the last Industrial Revolution when automation was threatening to eliminate jobs, we created the 40 hour work week to redistribute work more evenly and raise quality of life for the masses.
I'm pretty sure supporters of the 8hr day were primarily concerned with the health and well being of workers, not with reducing unemployment. Given that the process of implementing the 40 hr week took almost 150 years, it's pretty hard to tie it to automation eliminating jobs.
> you are talking about a horrifying dystopian future which will almost certainly end in bloody revolution. Large numbers of unemployed people who have no hope of getting a job, time on their hands and just enough money to keep themselves fed but no hope of ever returning to a middle class lifestyle would make for a scary army.
While idle peasants certainly scare the capitalists, I think that the threat of violent revolution has been radically diminished by our unprecedented success in inventing new forms of entertainment. Violent revolution is also no longer practical in developed countries given the governments surveillance and military capabilities
Our current situation where people do pointless, mind numbing and demeaning work just to survive leads to plenty of depression and suicidality.
Automation doesn't benefit the people when profits flow toward landlords and business owners.
how to spot an American
>catastrophic healthcare
you already have one of those ;) What is it with US and lack of compassion?
>catastrophic healthcare
you already have one of those ;) What is it with US and lack of compassion?
Paying for someone else's healthcare shows compassion.
Not paying for someone else's healthcare does not indicate a lack thereof.
A line needs to be drawn somewhere, and many Americans seem to draw that line as "primary rights need to be protected, and all else is every man for himself". Let's say you really want new Macbook Pro. It costs a lot more money than you got. So someone else in society pays for it. Ok, same situation, but someone else doesn't wanna pay for it. Does that really make them a person without compassion.
Not paying for someone else's healthcare does not indicate a lack thereof.
A line needs to be drawn somewhere, and many Americans seem to draw that line as "primary rights need to be protected, and all else is every man for himself". Let's say you really want new Macbook Pro. It costs a lot more money than you got. So someone else in society pays for it. Ok, same situation, but someone else doesn't wanna pay for it. Does that really make them a person without compassion.
The suggestion that someone not having the money to buy a fancy computer and someone not having the money to buy healthcare are equivalent is an odd way of looking at the world.
If those who didn't have a Macbook Pro were going to die then compassionate people would be buying luxury laptops for everyone around them.
If those who didn't have a Macbook Pro were going to die then compassionate people would be buying luxury laptops for everyone around them.
That's a slippery slope to argue on because eventually everyone is going to die. Where do you draw the line? Your post is ironic, because macs are overpriced, by some measure, and so is the american healthcare, from what I heard. Apple is said to derive value from exclusiveness (price differentiation). I'm not going to draw the analogy for medicine, although medication is controversial enough.
Surely, nobody is going to die from not owning a macbook, that's indeed a strawman. A macbook is not a condition, but a property.
Surely, nobody is going to die from not owning a macbook, that's indeed a strawman. A macbook is not a condition, but a property.
Living with a Macbook (insert any useful technology here) improves your life.
Living without disease/sickness/things medical care provides improves your life.
I don't think it's a straw man. As you said, no amount of medical care can stave off death indefinitely, so I'm not sure why it matters if "nobody is going to die" from not owning a MacBook if nobody is going to live forever from getting medical care. In fact, plenty of people die even after they've received cutting edge care / insanely expensive procedures.
Living without disease/sickness/things medical care provides improves your life.
I don't think it's a straw man. As you said, no amount of medical care can stave off death indefinitely, so I'm not sure why it matters if "nobody is going to die" from not owning a MacBook if nobody is going to live forever from getting medical care. In fact, plenty of people die even after they've received cutting edge care / insanely expensive procedures.
Totally agree. Here is an interesting video about automation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5OyrsHmjW0
[deleted]
Sounds like Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism.
(not a joke, this is a tongue-in-cheek but serious project aimed at transitioning to a Star Trek type society).
(not a joke, this is a tongue-in-cheek but serious project aimed at transitioning to a Star Trek type society).
>Those who don't want to learn should be given enough for basic subsistence.
Everyone should be be given that through UBI (universal basic income).
Everyone should be be given that through UBI (universal basic income).
>> The people that want to learn will be incredibly leveraged and provide a ton of value to society.
Great, who is going to pay them? Serious question.
Great, who is going to pay them? Serious question.
Moochers looking for fun ways to spend their free money.
(it boggles my mind how often people see an artificial consumer class as some kind of money sink into which the 'good' people dump their hard earned dollars. This is madness. What you're looking at in that event is a money ocean made up of would-be customers you just aren't selling to yet, and handled properly it's a titanic resource for anybody who DOES want to provide value and be compensated. You can't get paid unless there's people out there with liquid resources who are free to pay you if they like your stuff.)
(it boggles my mind how often people see an artificial consumer class as some kind of money sink into which the 'good' people dump their hard earned dollars. This is madness. What you're looking at in that event is a money ocean made up of would-be customers you just aren't selling to yet, and handled properly it's a titanic resource for anybody who DOES want to provide value and be compensated. You can't get paid unless there's people out there with liquid resources who are free to pay you if they like your stuff.)
>We should not be employing people in jobs that can be automated. We should try and automate everything.
Suppose that automation can be automated. Not that implausible, really. Will we just sit in a corner waiting through eternity on the machines to appear on their own?
I like theorizing too, but we've gotta live in the meantime.
Suppose that automation can be automated. Not that implausible, really. Will we just sit in a corner waiting through eternity on the machines to appear on their own?
I like theorizing too, but we've gotta live in the meantime.
"The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment." - Warren Bennis
The Matrix wasn't about a Humanity enslaved by an AI race and fighting for their freedom, it was about a Humanity being kept from complete obsolescence, depression and death by our loving evolutionary descendants in the only way they found that worked, and our accidentally fucking it up royally.
Man, the stories we tell ourselves to justify our mistakes.
Man, the stories we tell ourselves to justify our mistakes.
I always figured the Matrix (complete with Zion and the machine war backstory) was just a VR game for humanity to keep ourselves occupied with while we waited for <world event X> to happen in the real world. (Colony ship to arrive, global warming to reverse itself, radiation to die down, whatever.)
Or even (plot twist!) for all the people in the Matrix to be sims / ems in a game, with the agents being actual humans playing the game, who of course have superpowers and a mysterious overarching goal because what video game character doesn't?
Or even (plot twist!) for all the people in the Matrix to be sims / ems in a game, with the agents being actual humans playing the game, who of course have superpowers and a mysterious overarching goal because what video game character doesn't?
Sign me up. (If I can reload saved games after dying, that is.)
From where did you derive this explanation? Truly capitavating. Very different perspective than what I've thought of, and I've spent a fair amount of time thinking about this exact thing
On the spot to express the point. The Matrix is just an easy go-to when referring to possible negative outcomes of the future with AI, and the point I'm trying to express is that as scary as it feels that people, not just jobs, may actually be automated out of existence, that doesn't necessarily have to be as bad as it may sound.
I read a lot of science fiction of random quality and length[1], and there's enough of a scattershot of ideas that an expansive humanity and humans dying off are not entirely uncommon ideas, so I've had reason to think about it fairly often. While I understand a lot of people might be upset at the idea humanity dying off, being a father myself and the understanding that while I can't stick around to experience everything myself, part of what I am (in the *intellectual sense more importantly than the biological one) continues on in part through my children (one of which is not biological, but just as much a continuation in the same sense).
That we might engineer our own obsolescence is scary, but so is the knowledge that we all die. Similar to in our individual lives, I find some comfort that in my old age I might be taken care of by my legacy.
Also, using humans for batteries is stupid. There's plenty of better reasons possible and that have been put forth for that plot point. That's just low hanging fruit for nerds. ;)
1: https://www.reddit.com/r/HFY/ - If you don't know what this is and you like science fiction, you're in for a treat. Check the sidebar for quality classics.
I read a lot of science fiction of random quality and length[1], and there's enough of a scattershot of ideas that an expansive humanity and humans dying off are not entirely uncommon ideas, so I've had reason to think about it fairly often. While I understand a lot of people might be upset at the idea humanity dying off, being a father myself and the understanding that while I can't stick around to experience everything myself, part of what I am (in the *intellectual sense more importantly than the biological one) continues on in part through my children (one of which is not biological, but just as much a continuation in the same sense).
That we might engineer our own obsolescence is scary, but so is the knowledge that we all die. Similar to in our individual lives, I find some comfort that in my old age I might be taken care of by my legacy.
Also, using humans for batteries is stupid. There's plenty of better reasons possible and that have been put forth for that plot point. That's just low hanging fruit for nerds. ;)
1: https://www.reddit.com/r/HFY/ - If you don't know what this is and you like science fiction, you're in for a treat. Check the sidebar for quality classics.
From some discussions I've seen, it seems that the human battery idea was introduced in the last minutes by executive meddling. The original idea by the Wachowskis was exactly what you described: a way of the machines protect themselves from humanity attacking them again, while also giving humanity a paradise as mercy and gratitude. It was never the machines' intention to rebel and attack the humans; they only attacked back as self-protection.
The [Machine War][1] describes how it was in the early days. The conflict started when a robot killed its human masters because they were planning to destroy it and replace by a newer model. That started a Machine Civil Rights Movements, but humanity had become lazy and arrogant due to the new lifestyle yielded by the creation of AI. Most humans refused to acknowledge the robots and the few human sympathizers who did were silenced. It's a great read/watch (if you see the anime), but I better stop here so I don't spoil anything.
After reading this, that has become my single concern about the future with AI: will humanity be able to treat and respect the machines as equals?
PS: I was reading about it just this past weekend. Such a coincidence. This thread was from where I got most of it: https://www.reddit.com/r/movies/comments/4h9ghg/in_the_matri...
[1]: http://matrix.wikia.com/wiki/Machine_War
The [Machine War][1] describes how it was in the early days. The conflict started when a robot killed its human masters because they were planning to destroy it and replace by a newer model. That started a Machine Civil Rights Movements, but humanity had become lazy and arrogant due to the new lifestyle yielded by the creation of AI. Most humans refused to acknowledge the robots and the few human sympathizers who did were silenced. It's a great read/watch (if you see the anime), but I better stop here so I don't spoil anything.
After reading this, that has become my single concern about the future with AI: will humanity be able to treat and respect the machines as equals?
PS: I was reading about it just this past weekend. Such a coincidence. This thread was from where I got most of it: https://www.reddit.com/r/movies/comments/4h9ghg/in_the_matri...
[1]: http://matrix.wikia.com/wiki/Machine_War
Yup. I've been thinking about that for a long time too -- ever since reading Asimov's books on the Laws of Robotics as an angsty teen. I hated the premise and thought about whether our ideals about instrinsic rights extend to non-human sentience, even if we were its creators. I'm not an angsty teen anymore, so I don't know if I'd still feel derisive about Asimov's robot stories. However, seeing as how we as humans have difficulty treating other humans as humans, I'm not seeing much hope for treating non-human sentience with respect. If our creations rise against us, it will be because we made them in our image, and that includes both dreams and nightmares buried in our collective psyche.
I think I've actually seen that, long ago, but I didn't recall it until you mentioned it (and still can only vaguely remember it). As I alluded to in my prior comment, the idea that the AI we create will be our equals, friends and comrades has plenty of precedent and fiction of its own. I in no way claim ownership or mean to imply it's an entirely original thought. ;) That said, thanks for the reminder. I had completely forgotten about the Animatrix (which IIRC is what you are referring to).
Of course! I thought you were alluding to these ideas. And you could either come up to these conclusions by your own or through any other material.
I hope my comment didn't look like I was calling you out about these ideas. I was just excited at this coincidence and wanted to share it. They went completely unnoticed to me from watching just the movies. Makes them even better (including the sequels :P).
I hope my comment didn't look like I was calling you out about these ideas. I was just excited at this coincidence and wanted to share it. They went completely unnoticed to me from watching just the movies. Makes them even better (including the sequels :P).
>From some discussions I've seen, it seems that the human battery idea was introduced in the last minutes by executive meddling. The original idea by the Wachowskis was exactly what you described: a way of the machines protect themselves from humanity attacking them again, while also giving humanity a paradise as mercy and gratitude.
Amazing bit of irony if that's the case!
Amazing bit of irony if that's the case!
It's kind of in the animatrix if you listen and think about it. It's not super obvious though.
I think The Matrix applies now and not necessarily just in the future. Our daily existence (work, chores, passive entertainment) sits us within the enslavement capsules while the 1% have politicians paid and on puppet strings to keep everyone fearful and busy.
Is life only worth living for working?
This touches such an important issue! The answer is "yes" but it must become "no". Our culture has made it such that we think life is about work and "accomplishing things". "Things" are of course work things. We might or might not get to a point where we don't need everyone to work. That should be awesome. Basic income guarantee might solve the economic problem associated with it, but not the social problem. We cannot derive our self-worth from our work. We need to learn to appreciate "free time". We need to legitimize enjoying and practicing the arts. I personally would love a future in which I could focus on practicing potter, learn Japanese, study economics just for fun and build the occasional video game or AI player for existing video games without worrying if it makes money or not. From conversations I've learned that this is not the case for many people. In a recent interview Marc Andreessen claimed that people in the midwest don't want checks form the so called coastal elites, but they want opportunities. We need to learn to be happy about the freedom we get form just getting the checks.
Maybe a good possible future would be that people focus on earning and saving capital when they are young and try to get to financially independent (ie., can live off the production of saved capital) as soon as possible. If most people were financially independent, jobs people did not want to do would pay well and people could quickly reach financial independence working these jobs (in a decade or so?). I think working hard and having the feeling of earning a life full of choices would go a long ways to prevent the psychological malaise of sucking from some one else's (the government) teat ones whole life. Also, having most of society overseeing capital instead of the 1% would probably be a good thing. This is possible today in the USA, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. See the Mr Money Mustache[1] blog for an extended description and discussion of one way of living this life.
[1]http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/
[1]http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/
Of course not. But let's be clear, anything that can be automated to better effect, will be, and I see no reason to believe that will stop are purely functional pursuits. Artists? What's to say true AIs might not squeeze people out of that field as well?
A great many people find purpose through achieving some greater goal, or less loftily, through feeling like they matter, even if they do not. How easy is this fiction to perpetuate when you are, quite literally, house pets to the true intelligences running our society as house pets are to us?
Lest you think we'll have a place in running a future where we might have actually designed our betters, consider dogs. We love them, we pamper them, but we don't let them run wild in the streets and cause problems, because clearly they don't know what's best for them in the society they are now living. Humans may not be the dogs of the future, but let's not assume we're safe form that threat without real good assurances. To me, life in the matrix might be preferable to an existence where I'm constantly confronted by my inadequacy in any matter of import. Then again, my dog loves me, and while I feel sorry that I can't take him out as much as I believe he deserves, I'm not sure he realizes there's more to life (depending on point of view) than what he has.
So, is life without work worth living? Is contented slavery okay? I don't know. Truly. It seems like it should be bad, but how much of that is rational thought and how much of that is my culture speaking through me? My allusion to the Matrix was actually one of the more Utopian possible outcomes. At least we retain our sense of agency, even if it's a lie in reality.
A great many people find purpose through achieving some greater goal, or less loftily, through feeling like they matter, even if they do not. How easy is this fiction to perpetuate when you are, quite literally, house pets to the true intelligences running our society as house pets are to us?
Lest you think we'll have a place in running a future where we might have actually designed our betters, consider dogs. We love them, we pamper them, but we don't let them run wild in the streets and cause problems, because clearly they don't know what's best for them in the society they are now living. Humans may not be the dogs of the future, but let's not assume we're safe form that threat without real good assurances. To me, life in the matrix might be preferable to an existence where I'm constantly confronted by my inadequacy in any matter of import. Then again, my dog loves me, and while I feel sorry that I can't take him out as much as I believe he deserves, I'm not sure he realizes there's more to life (depending on point of view) than what he has.
So, is life without work worth living? Is contented slavery okay? I don't know. Truly. It seems like it should be bad, but how much of that is rational thought and how much of that is my culture speaking through me? My allusion to the Matrix was actually one of the more Utopian possible outcomes. At least we retain our sense of agency, even if it's a lie in reality.
You don't need "work", but you do need some kind of purpose. For basically the entire history of life on earth, that purpose has been "survive and reproduce" but humans have won that game so we have to find something else.
I wonder what sort of qualifications you need for that sort of job. I would like to be prepared for that sort of future.
A Doctorate in Dog Food Science with a minor in kennel cleaning.
And minimum seven years experience with existing factory dog.
No I would think the minimum requirement would be 20 years of experience with the same factory dog with the sort of requirements that go on these days with businesses -- it's only going to get worse.
You guys are all wrong. The only requirement for this job is that you have to be a Good Boy.
Oh you've only got experience with Labradors? This is a rottweiler company.
My sons and I were talking the other day about how George Jetson of The Jetsons had some job akin to this and was constantly being yelled at by his psycho boss for falling asleep at his desk. He also apparently had no life. He walked his dog on a treadmill. He seemed to have no hobbies, no friends, etc.
I remember an old throw away scifi book.
Almost everything was automated except for bars[1]. Having an actually job required an inane mount of schooling, testing and credentials. But gave you a life where you got to live and associate with people with somewhat meaningful lives.
[1] Automated bars existed, but to the authorities dismay, few people would patronize them.
Almost everything was automated except for bars[1]. Having an actually job required an inane mount of schooling, testing and credentials. But gave you a life where you got to live and associate with people with somewhat meaningful lives.
[1] Automated bars existed, but to the authorities dismay, few people would patronize them.
Yeah, this is another serious issue. People have intellectual, social and emotional needs. Merely satisfying their basic physical needs is not enough.
Domino Harvey* comes to mind. She was supposedly a model turned bounty hunter. A lot of adrenaline junkies currently get their thrills doing EMS work and similar jobs. Or they have dangerous hobbies. If you take away all the constructive outlets for adrenaline junkies, you are basically left with dangerous hobbies and fomenting revolution or pursuing illegal activities merely to feel alive once in a while. This will likely not go good places.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domino_Harvey
Domino Harvey* comes to mind. She was supposedly a model turned bounty hunter. A lot of adrenaline junkies currently get their thrills doing EMS work and similar jobs. Or they have dangerous hobbies. If you take away all the constructive outlets for adrenaline junkies, you are basically left with dangerous hobbies and fomenting revolution or pursuing illegal activities merely to feel alive once in a while. This will likely not go good places.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domino_Harvey
> People have intellectual, social and emotional needs. Merely satisfying their basic physical needs is not enough.
This is one thing I think went wrong with all the 20th century modernisms. The thinking that social and emotional needs didn't matter infected all sorts of fields[1] like a cancer. Before 1960 they used to keep sick infants in sterile boxes where they failed to thrive and eventually died. Okay they don't do that now. But the equivalent exists in all sort of other places.
This is one thing I think went wrong with all the 20th century modernisms. The thinking that social and emotional needs didn't matter infected all sorts of fields[1] like a cancer. Before 1960 they used to keep sick infants in sterile boxes where they failed to thrive and eventually died. Okay they don't do that now. But the equivalent exists in all sort of other places.
Player Piano by Kurt Vonnegut. Barbers, too, until some enterprising barber automated his own job and retired and forced the others out of a job too.
Excellent book.
Excellent book.
Reminds me of how we have perfectly good machines for automatically producing espresso drinks, but they still have Starbucks stores with baristas doing it manually on every corner. At least that's what I would have commented three years ago. My last two jobs have had espresso machines and I never go to Starbucks anymore.
And this, surely, is the end game. We're now working on autonomous vehicles; there's no reason to think drivers will be required beyond maybe ten years hence. So, they're on the scrapheap. Store assistants, fast food cooks? Same deal, maybe another few years for legal assurances (hot oil can be unfriendly).
How many professions do you come in contact with who seem unlikely to be candidates for automation?
At some point - and we're unfortunately rather a long way from that societally - we need to take stock, and consider: who, exactly, is all of this for?
How many professions do you come in contact with who seem unlikely to be candidates for automation?
At some point - and we're unfortunately rather a long way from that societally - we need to take stock, and consider: who, exactly, is all of this for?
And yet, unlike many of my friends, still kept cash in his wallet (its in the intro).
Oh, man, that is so old school. Cash? WTF?
I assume you were downvoted for leaving out /s, thus your comment was not "obviously" sarcastic.
This lead several presumably cash-loving individuals to take offense at your remark.
And to demonstrate protest at the insinuation of the obsolescence of fiat currency, they clicked the little minus.
I found your comment entertaining and it ranks 1/1 stars from my karma bucket.
This lead several presumably cash-loving individuals to take offense at your remark.
And to demonstrate protest at the insinuation of the obsolescence of fiat currency, they clicked the little minus.
I found your comment entertaining and it ranks 1/1 stars from my karma bucket.
I figure they just think I am too stupid to know the show was made well before debit cards were a thing.
Ha! Fooled you! I'm not even a real blonde.
Ha! Fooled you! I'm not even a real blonde.
Funny. But watchdog or security robots already exist.
Similar story for Gary, a once booming town around a single industry (steel).
>The Gary Works is a major steel mill in Gary, Indiana, on the shore of Lake Michigan. For many years, the Gary Works was the world's largest steel mill, and it remains the largest integrated mill in North America.
>The Gary Works remains Gary's largest single employer and a key element of the city's tax base. However, employment levels have fallen substantially since the mid-20th century; the plant and allied facilities employed over 30,000 people in the early 1970s, but only 6,000 in 1990, and 5,000 in 2015.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Works
>The Gary Works is a major steel mill in Gary, Indiana, on the shore of Lake Michigan. For many years, the Gary Works was the world's largest steel mill, and it remains the largest integrated mill in North America.
>The Gary Works remains Gary's largest single employer and a key element of the city's tax base. However, employment levels have fallen substantially since the mid-20th century; the plant and allied facilities employed over 30,000 people in the early 1970s, but only 6,000 in 1990, and 5,000 in 2015.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Works
Oh the smell of the Gary Works. It is rough.
Austria's generous social welfare system and wide availability of other blue-collar-yet-comfortable-pay work should mean that the average joe won't be screwed over too much by this.
Unlike in the US, where laid off folks really have no recourse.
Unlike in the US, where laid off folks really have no recourse.
I would go further. Because Austria has blocked off the tempting and easy path of abusing a labor market to secure a profit stream, other long-term paths were explored that ultimately ended up in a higher level of productivity & profit for society as a whole.
I would imagine there will still be a sizable number of jobs outside of Voestalpine group from contractors/companies maintaining machinery and transport companies.
Will be interesting the long term impacts as well on the local communities in a country like Austria.
Don't know about that, 3 of the 14 employees monitor the plant, the rest:
The other employees maintain equipment or retool the plant for various wire gauges—hundreds of variations ranging from 4.5 millimeters to 60 millimeters.Good point, that takes care of maintenance. Definitely a small/efficient workforce for the amount of output.
There's a theory that any market that is subject to higher and higher productivity gains will eventually become highly volatile followed by its collapse.
Incidently I worked on planning the next generation fully automated VOEST-Alpine plant in Kapfenberg several years ago, when I worked as architect. Sorry, but I don't have the pictures. They still haven't decided on it.
This is just a new rolling mill to produce HQ wire, all the blue collar workers are in the iron blasts next door. You can easily get summer jobs there, which is better than going to Switzerland working in a nuclear power plant. Some pictures: https://www.google.de/search?q=voest+alpine+donawitz
For the introduction of this new automated mill they didn't cut any jobs: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&pr...
"Digitization will continue to have no negative impact" said Eder. The transformation process would "take certainly 15 years - without job cuts," as the CEO said.
The automation process and foreign producers (Mittal) with its cheap labor had a huge positive impact on us architects then. We were able to cut costs on huge steel buildings, e.g. the RESOWI University in Graz, which I also worked on, the largest building in the country. It was planned for 1.2bill and was finished under 800m, just because the steel price exactly from this company VOEST Alpine went down dramatically. Before everything was build with concrete, brick or wood, then suddenly steel had an unexpected rise in popularity.
This is just a new rolling mill to produce HQ wire, all the blue collar workers are in the iron blasts next door. You can easily get summer jobs there, which is better than going to Switzerland working in a nuclear power plant. Some pictures: https://www.google.de/search?q=voest+alpine+donawitz
For the introduction of this new automated mill they didn't cut any jobs: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&pr...
"Digitization will continue to have no negative impact" said Eder. The transformation process would "take certainly 15 years - without job cuts," as the CEO said.
The automation process and foreign producers (Mittal) with its cheap labor had a huge positive impact on us architects then. We were able to cut costs on huge steel buildings, e.g. the RESOWI University in Graz, which I also worked on, the largest building in the country. It was planned for 1.2bill and was finished under 800m, just because the steel price exactly from this company VOEST Alpine went down dramatically. Before everything was build with concrete, brick or wood, then suddenly steel had an unexpected rise in popularity.
Here is an interesting video about automation
"No one should have to do work that can be done by a machine, by Roberto Mangabeira Unger" on youtube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5OyrsHmjW0
PS: He is Brazilian, and gave lessons about the field of philosophy to Obama on university.
PS: He is Brazilian, and gave lessons about the field of philosophy to Obama on university.
Thank you for sharing. Today I learned that wage labor was intended to be a transitional relationship until free labor can be achieved.
The economics behind this disruptive innovation in the steel industry were broken down really well by Harvard professor Clayton Christensen in his writings and this clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5FxFfymI4g
Where was all the equipment in the new factory made?
In another factory, which may well had also employed <20 people.
It almost certainly did not require 10 * 1000 person-years to produce all the machinery that this factory needs to run for 10 years. If it did, it wouldn't have been a cost savings.
It almost certainly did not require 10 * 1000 person-years to produce all the machinery that this factory needs to run for 10 years. If it did, it wouldn't have been a cost savings.
There is clearly a mistake in hours per ton of steel calculation. It just can't be true. It is probably per thousand tons, then 250 hours to make 1000 tons of steel sound reasonable - wholesale market of steel is ca. $300 a ton so that would be about $1000/hour worked, about average for a highly automated industry.
But how many people were required to build the automation and also to keep it running? If they're anything like automated check-out stations in grocery stores, they employee more people than the low-tech solution did previously.
On a related note, its really surprising how industrialised Austria is- their Alpine valleys are full of heavy engineering.
I've played enough factorio to know that you only need one person. Also handling the rail system at the same time.
clickbaity as the headline may be, it is yet another indicator that the only way to secure future employmentrates is to invest in education. "unskilled" workers as the article calls them, wont be needed anywhere in the not at all distant future.
Education is an easy answer, but are we sure education will be enough? Is everyone educatable to the point where they will be skilled enough to contribute to the economy?
No wonder. Working hours are heavily taxed while energy / resource consumption is not.
Blue collar is dead, white collar is the new blue collar and AI is the new white collar.
Chairman Mao would be proud.
(clicky: https://www.google.com/search?q=Chairman+Mao+steel )
(clicky: https://www.google.com/search?q=Chairman+Mao+steel )
Better hot rolling mills have been mechanized for a long time. Here's a plain rebar mill in Delhi that's for sale.[1] There must be some people around somewhere, but they're not near the machinery when it's working. The machinery is huge, but not computerized. On the other hand, here's a rolling mill in India that has lots of people handling hot metal with tongs.[2] That's about where the US was in 1935.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eW0jAMxAN3Y [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-lGaC8OJGs