Momentum Isn’t Magic–Vindicating the Hot Hand with the Mathematics of Streaks(scientificamerican.com)

2 pointsby aldendaniels6 ปีที่แล้ว1 comments

Momentum Isn’t Magic–Vindicating the Hot Hand with the Mathematics of Streaks

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/momentum-isnt-magic-vindicating-the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks/

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aldendaniels6 ปีที่แล้ว

> Even Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman affirmed this consensus: “The hot hand is a massive and widespread cognitive illusion.” > > Nevertheless, recent work has uncovered critical flaws in the research which underlies this consensus. In fact, these flaws are sufficient to not only invalidate the most compelling evidence against the hot hand, but even to vindicate the belief in streakiness.

The difficulty involves subtle misunderstanding of the probabilities involved in random sequences: an error that is nearly "nearly equivalent to the famous Monty Hall problem".