A CO2 capture solvent with exceptionally low total costs of capture(pubs.rsc.org)
pubs.rsc.org
A CO2 capture solvent with exceptionally low total costs of capture
https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2020/ee/d0ee02585b#!divAbstract
268 comments
I've been looking at the use of algae with regards to sequester img CO2 from the atmosphere. This seems to have some remarkable advantages: single molecules which make mass production easier, presumably less finicky operating procedure and way more straightforward to pump into disused oil wells. From the abstract it does seem to need CO2 being supplied to it as opposed to drawing it from the atmosphere actively. I assume this could be used in exhausts of some kind?
Definite benefit is the fact that the CO2 is captured immediately as opposed to over a years long timeline, like trees.
I'm interested in causing algae blooms near the equator with iron sulfide. Not for co2 capture, most of that would get released on decomposition, but for the albedo effect. It also has the failsafe that if it gets too cold the algae will die preventing a snowball earth. They did some tests for salmon production, and scaling that linearly for area covered it would be less than a $1.5 billion project. Also we get salmon.
Within striking range for any single trillionaire.
Reminds me of this article (which also mentions algal blooms): http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/09/how-to-t...
«Few experts think that relying on geo-engineering would be a good idea. But no one knows how soon reality will trump ideology, and so we may finally have hit on a useful form of alarmism. One of the virtues of Keith’s succinct, scary book is to convince the reader that unless we find a way to talk about climate change, planes full of sulfuric acid will soon be on the runway.»
Reminds me of this article (which also mentions algal blooms): http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/09/how-to-t...
«Few experts think that relying on geo-engineering would be a good idea. But no one knows how soon reality will trump ideology, and so we may finally have hit on a useful form of alarmism. One of the virtues of Keith’s succinct, scary book is to convince the reader that unless we find a way to talk about climate change, planes full of sulfuric acid will soon be on the runway.»
Would you get enough salmon to offset the cost? What’s the net cost of this approach?
I wouldn't count on any savings from the $1.5B. You would get more salmon than we know what to do with and you have to harvest them or the overpopulation would mess with the ecosystem.
> more salmon than we know what to do with
Bury them in the ground as fertilizer?
Requires people to fish them up, but maybe we can redirect some of the effort that goes into overfishing to that.
Bury them in the ground as fertilizer?
Requires people to fish them up, but maybe we can redirect some of the effort that goes into overfishing to that.
Alright HN domain experts. I’m prepared. What’s the rub?
It’s only practical on mixtures with high co2 gas concentrations
From the abstract it seems to be very applicable to combustion exhausts (coal/gas plants) and consuming 5-10% of the combustion energy to recapture the CO2.
Hard to tell what is the required CO2 concentration without the full article. Typical combustion exhaust seems to be ~10% of CO2, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flue_gas
Edit: spelling.
Hard to tell what is the required CO2 concentration without the full article. Typical combustion exhaust seems to be ~10% of CO2, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flue_gas
Edit: spelling.
Such as flue gases from fertiliser, cement, steel and power plants ... which make up a sizeable chunk of our emissions.
We should be targeting CO2 capture at point-sources wherever possible. Why wait until it's diffused into the atmosphere before trying to capture it?
We should be targeting CO2 capture at point-sources wherever possible. Why wait until it's diffused into the atmosphere before trying to capture it?
Would inside a chimney work?
I wonder how research is doing to concentrate CO2 from the PPM amounts we have "in regular air"
There are at least two low-hanging fruits that make it "easier": CO2 is heavier than other important gases and mildly polar.
There are at least two low-hanging fruits that make it "easier": CO2 is heavier than other important gases and mildly polar.
Plant lots of trees or similar, then burn them for electricity and capture the CO2 from the smoke.
Compared to a lot of the other proposals out there it almost sounds plausible.
Compared to a lot of the other proposals out there it almost sounds plausible.
Or skip a step. Turn the trees into lumber and build something with it. Long-lived wooden structures sequester carbon until they are abandoned and rot.
Why not just do a partial burn and reduce the remainder to charcoal? It would be much cheaper, require no chemicals, and the end product is pure carbon, which would be easier to store. You could literally dump it in a pile and deal with it later.
Making charcoal is not energy-positive and still only results in about 50% carbon capture, best case scenario. Burning it in a biomass plant with good carbon capture does better and displaces carbon-emitting generation processes at the same time. As an added bonus biomass plants are excellent 'baseload' type plants, a feature that wind, solar, etc are missing without expensive storage and complex management schemes.
Like with every other solution, under the current political and economic systems, there's no incentive to scale it up quickly enough to make a dent in global warming and it will just live in small local prototypes and in the dreams of techno-solutionists.
That too
That's not a techno solution worth to dream about, the real techno solution is a fine grained control of weather (like https://viento.ai) and in that case the extra CO2 in atmosphere will be naturally sequestered in fields and farms in Sahara.
That "leadership team" doesn't seem qualified to be working in this area.
Aubrey de Grey, heh? IDK... now I like it more.
What he is qualified for is running this sort of effort. I just don't know what to call this sort of effort.
Viento is a ‘moonshot’ nonprofit pioneering targeted weather security... by combining big data, forecasting breakthroughs and AI directed weather interventions... framed as "break glass in case of climate emergency."
So... I don't like the idea. I do however, like the way he puts together moonshot projects, generally. Maybe this will evolve into something better. It's useful to have 0.X% of people working on tech, to be doing it in an environment that isn't standard academia or big tech.
What he is qualified for is running this sort of effort. I just don't know what to call this sort of effort.
Viento is a ‘moonshot’ nonprofit pioneering targeted weather security... by combining big data, forecasting breakthroughs and AI directed weather interventions... framed as "break glass in case of climate emergency."
So... I don't like the idea. I do however, like the way he puts together moonshot projects, generally. Maybe this will evolve into something better. It's useful to have 0.X% of people working on tech, to be doing it in an environment that isn't standard academia or big tech.
thanks but no thanks
To be honest, the layout of that site does not exactly inspire confidence.
But the team is interesting indeed. Incidentally, there's an online SSC meetup with Jaan Tallinn as guest, _today_: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/jQQYCdtiH5d3CtrNC/jaan-tall...
But the team is interesting indeed. Incidentally, there's an online SSC meetup with Jaan Tallinn as guest, _today_: https://www.lesswrong.com/events/jQQYCdtiH5d3CtrNC/jaan-tall...
I think the bigger gotcha with carbon capture is it sustains the quid pro quo that climate change is the biggest threat to unchecked energy consumption growth. Behind climate change, there's also biodiversity collapse, ocean fish depletion, and that's gonna ruin the food system billions of people depend on, way before they see the benefits of globalisation.
Consumption is the underlying driver but emissions is definitely the biggest 'base' threat.
Acidification (from CO2) and temperature (from CO2) rise would continue to lead to collapses of fish stocks even if we stopped trawling the oceans.
Acidification (from CO2) and temperature (from CO2) rise would continue to lead to collapses of fish stocks even if we stopped trawling the oceans.
True, but if it's really good, it probably could be brought into the political/economic system at some point. Just mandate zero emissions for certain classes of carbon fuel burners... like power new stations.
Replacing the first 30% of fossil fuel usage is hard/slow. At some point, it will become much easier/quicker... because the economics will be favourable.
The last 30% of fossil fuel will be hard/slow. Fossil fuel burning use cases that for different reasons are hard to replace. For these, exhaust capture makes sense.
Replacing the first 30% of fossil fuel usage is hard/slow. At some point, it will become much easier/quicker... because the economics will be favourable.
The last 30% of fossil fuel will be hard/slow. Fossil fuel burning use cases that for different reasons are hard to replace. For these, exhaust capture makes sense.
lot of wishful thinking here. There's clearly not enough time for this
Enough time for what?
All I'm predicting is that carbon reduction will follow a path. Slow, then fast, then slow again. At that late point, exhaust capture may be mandatory... I would even say probably.
All I'm predicting is that carbon reduction will follow a path. Slow, then fast, then slow again. At that late point, exhaust capture may be mandatory... I would even say probably.
For making a dent in global warming we'll need to have billions of tonnes of this "N-(2-ethoxyethyl)-3-morpholinopropan-1-amine (2-EEMPA)" stuff..
I wonder if this won't be an environmental hazard in itself. What do we do with it after it's captured its CO2? We can't just dump that stuff in the sea.
I wonder if CO2 capture does not cause more problems than it solves. Even if we magically could capture CO2 as pure carbon and let the O2 back into the air, we'd end up with enough carbon to fill all the mines we've emptied over the years. Where are we going to leave all that without making a huge environmental mess? And how do we transport all that there? And that's not even considering the energy usage and possible reagents.
I think we should really reduce our energy usage instead. Every tonne of CO2 not emitted does not have to be captured, and the effects of not producing it are positive for the environment in more ways than just global warming.
Of course we're already on a path for significant global warming, but I think we'll just have to deal with that as we go. I don't think we'll manage to do significant CO2 capture before the effects are irreversible anyway.
I wonder if this won't be an environmental hazard in itself. What do we do with it after it's captured its CO2? We can't just dump that stuff in the sea.
I wonder if CO2 capture does not cause more problems than it solves. Even if we magically could capture CO2 as pure carbon and let the O2 back into the air, we'd end up with enough carbon to fill all the mines we've emptied over the years. Where are we going to leave all that without making a huge environmental mess? And how do we transport all that there? And that's not even considering the energy usage and possible reagents.
I think we should really reduce our energy usage instead. Every tonne of CO2 not emitted does not have to be captured, and the effects of not producing it are positive for the environment in more ways than just global warming.
Of course we're already on a path for significant global warming, but I think we'll just have to deal with that as we go. I don't think we'll manage to do significant CO2 capture before the effects are irreversible anyway.
but we must capture de one we already emitted to balance the CO2 cicle
1. The solvent in carbon capture runs in a closed loop. You typically heat it, and it releases the CO2 so you can compress it and inject it below ground.
2. You don't necessarily need a depleted natural gas reservoir to inject CO2 subsurface (though they sure are convenient) and there is plenty of room for CO2 subsurface. It also doesn't creep to the surface on any meaningful timescale.
3. How do we transport it there? Pipelines.
I feel like CO2 sequestration is second only to nuclear in the amount of unfounded concerns. There's one very well founded concern directly in the article - they estimate $50 per tonne of CO2 just to capture, let alone to store. My experience on a 2009 carbon capture plant design was that approx $100 per tonne of CO2 was the lowest carbon price that would really make carbon sequestration highly attractive and widespread.
I also happen to think a $100 per tonne carbon price is not such a bad idea. But it is possible that other technologies would beat carbon sequestration at that carbon price point. I don't know.
2. You don't necessarily need a depleted natural gas reservoir to inject CO2 subsurface (though they sure are convenient) and there is plenty of room for CO2 subsurface. It also doesn't creep to the surface on any meaningful timescale.
3. How do we transport it there? Pipelines.
I feel like CO2 sequestration is second only to nuclear in the amount of unfounded concerns. There's one very well founded concern directly in the article - they estimate $50 per tonne of CO2 just to capture, let alone to store. My experience on a 2009 carbon capture plant design was that approx $100 per tonne of CO2 was the lowest carbon price that would really make carbon sequestration highly attractive and widespread.
I also happen to think a $100 per tonne carbon price is not such a bad idea. But it is possible that other technologies would beat carbon sequestration at that carbon price point. I don't know.
Ok closed loop sounds better, the article didn't clarify this. But the compression itself and the heating will cost significant energy too, don't forget this.
But consider for a moment how much coal and oil we've been digging up since the industrial age. CO2 is much less dense once it's uncontained underground. It won't stay liquid at that pressure.
In that case we'll need to have underground space of a size of many times the space that all that coal and oil took up, due to the lower density. Just pumping it there, forcing it underground in different spots etc will also cause significant ecological disruption. It's a lot of land we're going to be running pipelines to, drilling into to inject it, using heavy machinery etc.
And if some of it does end up being released due to a mistake, it can have potentially deadly effects. Like what happened at Lake Nyos. Safety would really have to be guaranteed.
I don't know, it just sounds like a solution that won't scale to the enormity of the climate problems, and rather more like big business wanting to monetise the problem itself (and also use it as an excuse to not reduce consumption).
But anyway, if it does prove itself in trials I would change my mind on it.
But consider for a moment how much coal and oil we've been digging up since the industrial age. CO2 is much less dense once it's uncontained underground. It won't stay liquid at that pressure.
In that case we'll need to have underground space of a size of many times the space that all that coal and oil took up, due to the lower density. Just pumping it there, forcing it underground in different spots etc will also cause significant ecological disruption. It's a lot of land we're going to be running pipelines to, drilling into to inject it, using heavy machinery etc.
And if some of it does end up being released due to a mistake, it can have potentially deadly effects. Like what happened at Lake Nyos. Safety would really have to be guaranteed.
I don't know, it just sounds like a solution that won't scale to the enormity of the climate problems, and rather more like big business wanting to monetise the problem itself (and also use it as an excuse to not reduce consumption).
But anyway, if it does prove itself in trials I would change my mind on it.
The little detail that injecting CO2 into gas and oil wells can help get more gas and oil out of them is the main reason companies are investing in this tech. If the government can be persuaded to pay for the research, all the better!
In Texas you can find big pockets of CO2 undeground and pdople havd been driling holes into those and pumping the CO2 into oil wells. Thus the pipeline, injection, etc. are all developed.
CO2 at 1200 psi will mix with oil very well and do wonders getting into pores, but to scale up storage there are not enough oil wells and we'd probably store in saline aquifers.
CO2 at 1200 psi will mix with oil very well and do wonders getting into pores, but to scale up storage there are not enough oil wells and we'd probably store in saline aquifers.
One great idea for storage is underground basalt formations. Inject CO2, and it'll turn into limestone in under two years. It can't solve the whole problem by itself, but there's enough capacity for gigatons of CO2.
There are several entities working on this. Here's a company with a small pilot project, and links to scientific papers: https://www.carbfix.com/
There are several entities working on this. Here's a company with a small pilot project, and links to scientific papers: https://www.carbfix.com/
I believe basalt can be produced artificially as well, is there a chance we could build limestone farms? That would be a neat trick.
Artificial production alone doesn't do the trick. It would have to be low in energy consumption, preferably exothermic. I don't think there is such a reaction with plentifully available material. Otherwise you spend more energy on the basalt than the CO_2 production gave you.
Also, large parts of this planet consist of natural basalt deposits, every area with some current or historic vulcanism has them. E.g. half of Siberia is a huge basalt deposit. Google Siberian Trap. So I do not think artificial production would be necessary.
Also, large parts of this planet consist of natural basalt deposits, every area with some current or historic vulcanism has them. E.g. half of Siberia is a huge basalt deposit. Google Siberian Trap. So I do not think artificial production would be necessary.
> But the compression itself and the heating will cost significant energy too, don't forget this.
That's in the abstract, it's 2GJ/ton of carbon. So, it's roughly 1/20 of the energy generated by burning the carbon at the first place.
That's in the abstract, it's 2GJ/ton of carbon. So, it's roughly 1/20 of the energy generated by burning the carbon at the first place.
>I feel like CO2 sequestration is second only to nuclear in the amount of unfounded concerns
The problem with CO2 capture specifically (specifically from the atmosphere as opposed to at the source) is that CO2 comprises a very small part of air. This means you have to move huge amounts of air through a capture device to capture a very small amount of carbon. How is that ever going to make sense?
The problem with CO2 capture specifically (specifically from the atmosphere as opposed to at the source) is that CO2 comprises a very small part of air. This means you have to move huge amounts of air through a capture device to capture a very small amount of carbon. How is that ever going to make sense?
It makes sense because brute force engineering solutions are frequently the right ones. If you capture carbon from the air, you can mass produce one kind of capture facility and spam as many copies of this facility as you need (at low cost, thanks to mass production) to give humanity closed-loop control over atmospheric composition.
If you rely on source emissions control only, you need finnicky source-specific installation and control technology everywhere, which greatly increases the cost and complexity of the implementation. And there are places where you can't realistically do carbon capture and sequestration, e.g. jet engines.
On top of all that, we live in a world with multiple governments and jurisdictions, and not all of them agree on the right level of investment in source capture. Do you really expect developing countries to give up on coal generation right away? What are you going to do, bomb them into the stone age? A climate management solution must be robust against the problem of uncooperative actors. We can't rely on everyone getting along and singing carbon kumbaya.
Compared to source mitigations, an atmospheric capture approach is simpler, more robust, and better capable of dealing with uncooperative emitters. Yes, you have to move a lot of air, but that's just energy, and energy is cheap if you're not picky about geography or uptime, and it's especially cheap if you're not squeamish about nuclear.
If you rely on source emissions control only, you need finnicky source-specific installation and control technology everywhere, which greatly increases the cost and complexity of the implementation. And there are places where you can't realistically do carbon capture and sequestration, e.g. jet engines.
On top of all that, we live in a world with multiple governments and jurisdictions, and not all of them agree on the right level of investment in source capture. Do you really expect developing countries to give up on coal generation right away? What are you going to do, bomb them into the stone age? A climate management solution must be robust against the problem of uncooperative actors. We can't rely on everyone getting along and singing carbon kumbaya.
Compared to source mitigations, an atmospheric capture approach is simpler, more robust, and better capable of dealing with uncooperative emitters. Yes, you have to move a lot of air, but that's just energy, and energy is cheap if you're not picky about geography or uptime, and it's especially cheap if you're not squeamish about nuclear.
Remember those facilities would have very high running costs (energy usage), it's not just a case of building them.
The paper says 2.0 GJ per tonne CO2. One GJ is 278kWh, and annual emissions about 36 gigatonnes, so that comes to 2.4 terawatts to absorb all our emissions.
Global energy consumption is about 18 TW[1], so 2.4 TW is a lot but not outlandishly so. It makes sense to look at global energy rather than just global electricity, because the input to this process is heat. We'd need clean energy sources, but we have those. Since we need heat and can use a fixed amount of energy constantly, high-temperature nuclear reactors would probably be ideal.
It would be silly to do this instead of decarbonizing electricity production and converting to electric cars, but we also have to deal with steel and concrete production, agricultural emissions, long-haul jets, etc. Let's say we need one TW to cover emissions we can't easily decarbonize.
Nuclear power produced 2657 TWh of electricity in 2019.[2] Divide by hours in a year, that's 0.3 TW. Assuming 50% thermal efficiency, it's 0.6 TW of heat energy. So basically, triple the number of nuclear plants in the world and we can absorb 40% of our emissions.
Some of the high-temperature designs are fast reactors or thorium breeders. If we use either of those, we won't remotely strain our nuclear fuel supply.
There are other methods of absorbing CO2, like reforestation, topsoil restoration, and olivine beaches. But most methods have scaling limits. Direct air capture with basalt sequestration[3] and/or carbon-neutral fuel production could easily play a large role.
[1] https://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/current_world_energy_...
[2] https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-an...
[3] https://www.carbfix.com/
Global energy consumption is about 18 TW[1], so 2.4 TW is a lot but not outlandishly so. It makes sense to look at global energy rather than just global electricity, because the input to this process is heat. We'd need clean energy sources, but we have those. Since we need heat and can use a fixed amount of energy constantly, high-temperature nuclear reactors would probably be ideal.
It would be silly to do this instead of decarbonizing electricity production and converting to electric cars, but we also have to deal with steel and concrete production, agricultural emissions, long-haul jets, etc. Let's say we need one TW to cover emissions we can't easily decarbonize.
Nuclear power produced 2657 TWh of electricity in 2019.[2] Divide by hours in a year, that's 0.3 TW. Assuming 50% thermal efficiency, it's 0.6 TW of heat energy. So basically, triple the number of nuclear plants in the world and we can absorb 40% of our emissions.
Some of the high-temperature designs are fast reactors or thorium breeders. If we use either of those, we won't remotely strain our nuclear fuel supply.
There are other methods of absorbing CO2, like reforestation, topsoil restoration, and olivine beaches. But most methods have scaling limits. Direct air capture with basalt sequestration[3] and/or carbon-neutral fuel production could easily play a large role.
[1] https://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/current_world_energy_...
[2] https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-an...
[3] https://www.carbfix.com/
I guess the low hanging fruit is to attach this to a power plant or some other CO2 emitting process.
That's true, but then it is surely better to cut out the middle-man and just not use fossil fuels for static generation in the first place.
The energy needs which are hard to meet with renewables (aviation, other large-scale transport) are the same places where CCS is non-viable due to the efficiency hit.
The best we can do is decarbonise as quickly as possible, and live with the fallout of our failure to act this far - unless a significant use for captured CO2 is identified, atmospheric capture technology will always struggle with commercial viability.
The energy needs which are hard to meet with renewables (aviation, other large-scale transport) are the same places where CCS is non-viable due to the efficiency hit.
The best we can do is decarbonise as quickly as possible, and live with the fallout of our failure to act this far - unless a significant use for captured CO2 is identified, atmospheric capture technology will always struggle with commercial viability.
> unless a significant use for captured CO2 is identified
And a significant use that does not end in it being released to the atmosphere after being used :)
And a significant use that does not end in it being released to the atmosphere after being used :)
The best we can do is to do everything we can.
It might also be interesting to start burning biomass and capturing the CO2, which would be net negative.
Maybe it's viable for cement production as well.
Maybe it's viable for cement production as well.
> I also happen to think a $100 per tonne carbon price is not such a bad idea.
Government here in Norway recently released their climate plan, and part of it was the gradual increase to 2000 NOK (~234 USD) per tonne of CO2 in 2030[1].
Not sure if it survives the years of politics between then and now though...
[1]: https://www.dn.no/politikk/erna-solberg/sveinung-rotevatn/kl...
Government here in Norway recently released their climate plan, and part of it was the gradual increase to 2000 NOK (~234 USD) per tonne of CO2 in 2030[1].
Not sure if it survives the years of politics between then and now though...
[1]: https://www.dn.no/politikk/erna-solberg/sveinung-rotevatn/kl...
Super fascinating. Wasn't aware that the suggested CO2 tax was this high. This is the order of magnitude we need to aim for, in order to make CO2 removal and reduction of CO2 emissions properly profitable.
I get the impression that the tax is to be levied on the entity that emits CO2 to the atmosphere, not the fuel producer?
What's also encouraging is that it's the right party fronting this suggestion. It's not a fringe left-wing environmental party.
I get the impression that the tax is to be levied on the entity that emits CO2 to the atmosphere, not the fuel producer?
What's also encouraging is that it's the right party fronting this suggestion. It's not a fringe left-wing environmental party.
> I get the impression that the tax is to be levied on the entity that emits CO2 to the atmosphere
Yes that seems to be the case[1].
> It's not a fringe left-wing environmental party.
Indeed, so will be interesting times ahead. Not unsurprisingly Norway has a very oil-oriented industry, which obviously did not think too highly of this proposal. There's lots of talk about transitioning to a "greener economy" but precious few concrete proposals about how to turn those jobs green.
So yeah, interesting times ahead.
[1]: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/okonomi-og-budsjett/skatt...
Yes that seems to be the case[1].
> It's not a fringe left-wing environmental party.
Indeed, so will be interesting times ahead. Not unsurprisingly Norway has a very oil-oriented industry, which obviously did not think too highly of this proposal. There's lots of talk about transitioning to a "greener economy" but precious few concrete proposals about how to turn those jobs green.
So yeah, interesting times ahead.
[1]: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/okonomi-og-budsjett/skatt...
Does this include the carbon ultimately released from oil that was sold to other countries by Norway?
[deleted]
I would guess no. The buyer could be pumping it back in the ground for all the seller knows.
Requirement to sell "carbon neutral" oil to countries that do not have their own carbon capture rules would be an interesting idea.
Could as well add another tax for all the other nasty chemicals the refinement process releases.
Requirement to sell "carbon neutral" oil to countries that do not have their own carbon capture rules would be an interesting idea.
Could as well add another tax for all the other nasty chemicals the refinement process releases.
>The buyer could be pumping it back in the ground for all the seller knows.
Yeah, I’m afraid I don’t buy this reasoning...
Yeah, I’m afraid I don’t buy this reasoning...
As I understand it no, it only covers usage of oil and other fossil products.
On the one hand I absolutely agree that's ignoring a major CO2 source.
On the other hand, if Norway added the CO2 tax to exported fossil fuel but other countries did not, would that affect fossil fuel consumption in any meaningful way?
On the one hand I absolutely agree that's ignoring a major CO2 source.
On the other hand, if Norway added the CO2 tax to exported fossil fuel but other countries did not, would that affect fossil fuel consumption in any meaningful way?
To put it in perspective, 100usd/tn would let me (limey brit) maintain my wasteful lifestyle for just 5300 a year. That's very affordable when the alternatives are Water World level flooding or living like a vegan hermit in a cave...
The flooding is hardly "water world": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z
"Central estimates in the recent literature broadly agree that global mean sea level is likely to rise 20–30 cm by 20503,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. End-of-century projections diverge more, with typical central estimates ranging from 50–70 cm under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 70–100 cm under RCP 8.53,9,10,12, though more recent projections incorporating Antarctic ice sheet dynamics indicate that sea levels may rise 70–100 cm under RCP 4.5 and 100–180 cm under RCP 8.5, and could even exceed 2 m or more in far-tail scenarios4,7,8,11. Via a structured elicitation of opinion, experts now estimate there is a 5 percent chance 21st century sea-level rise will exceed 2 m"
Bad news for East Anglia and the Somerset Levels, and many estuary cities including London will need mitigation work.
"Central estimates in the recent literature broadly agree that global mean sea level is likely to rise 20–30 cm by 20503,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. End-of-century projections diverge more, with typical central estimates ranging from 50–70 cm under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 70–100 cm under RCP 8.53,9,10,12, though more recent projections incorporating Antarctic ice sheet dynamics indicate that sea levels may rise 70–100 cm under RCP 4.5 and 100–180 cm under RCP 8.5, and could even exceed 2 m or more in far-tail scenarios4,7,8,11. Via a structured elicitation of opinion, experts now estimate there is a 5 percent chance 21st century sea-level rise will exceed 2 m"
Bad news for East Anglia and the Somerset Levels, and many estuary cities including London will need mitigation work.
#1 thank you for sharing, I was all prepared to come back here and say "20 cm-30 cm is a lot! that puts half of boston underwater!", but it doesn't, not even remotely, and thus is a useful reminder to me I can chill
#2 to be fair to OP, think they're referencing what would happen to humanity as a whole if we _didn't_ have carbon capture, not specifically "water world by 2100", and something I've picked up since moving to Boston from Buffalo is that storm surge has a _much_ more significant effect when you're around so much water. Even the 20-30 cm, once you add a foot or two of storm surge that we get a handful of times a year, floods most of Boston in 2050.
#2 to be fair to OP, think they're referencing what would happen to humanity as a whole if we _didn't_ have carbon capture, not specifically "water world by 2100", and something I've picked up since moving to Boston from Buffalo is that storm surge has a _much_ more significant effect when you're around so much water. Even the 20-30 cm, once you add a foot or two of storm surge that we get a handful of times a year, floods most of Boston in 2050.
> 100usd/tn would let me (limey brit) maintain my wasteful lifestyle for just 5300 a year. That's very affordable
In the eyes of the annoying kind of climate activist, the affordability you've mentioned is a bug, not a feature. Too many people who claim to care about the planet want to use the climate as a pretext to reform everyone's lifestyle and to roll back industrial civilization more generally. This sort of activist doesn't see the carbon problem as an engineering challenge, but instead as a political and aesthetic project. It's super annoying, because people like this reject technology that would let us have our modern lifestyle cake and eat it too.
Not all climate activists are like this, but there are enough of these bad faith people around to seriously impair earnest and good faith efforts to solve the actual engineering side of the carbon problem.
In the eyes of the annoying kind of climate activist, the affordability you've mentioned is a bug, not a feature. Too many people who claim to care about the planet want to use the climate as a pretext to reform everyone's lifestyle and to roll back industrial civilization more generally. This sort of activist doesn't see the carbon problem as an engineering challenge, but instead as a political and aesthetic project. It's super annoying, because people like this reject technology that would let us have our modern lifestyle cake and eat it too.
Not all climate activists are like this, but there are enough of these bad faith people around to seriously impair earnest and good faith efforts to solve the actual engineering side of the carbon problem.
> to use the climate as a pretext to reform everyone's lifestyle and to roll back industrial civilization more generally.
Not roll back. But do smarter.
It's not just global warming. We're shipping billions of tons of stuff from one side of the planet to another in sulphur-blowing rustbuckets. Creating continents of floating plastic in the oceans. Causing toxic lakes from harvesting rare earth minerals.
We can't keep doing this. Maybe we can keep it up so before your lifetime is over, but sooner or later it's going to be a problem that can't be avoided just like climate change is now.
There's many quick wins here. Buying locally produced foods instead of stuff flown in from half a world away. Not flying across europe for a 1 hour business meeting. Reducing plastic packaging.
And there's good news too. We're continuing the excellent path of energy reduction in electric appliances. They had to keep adding "+"es and now rework the entire energy labels in Europe because "A++++" efficiency became too long.
I think COVID already brought us halfway there. We're no longer used to business meetings, the fragility of our supply chains has opened up many eyes, and most office workers now work from home at least part time and do just fine. For the environment this has all been pretty great :)
Not roll back. But do smarter.
It's not just global warming. We're shipping billions of tons of stuff from one side of the planet to another in sulphur-blowing rustbuckets. Creating continents of floating plastic in the oceans. Causing toxic lakes from harvesting rare earth minerals.
We can't keep doing this. Maybe we can keep it up so before your lifetime is over, but sooner or later it's going to be a problem that can't be avoided just like climate change is now.
There's many quick wins here. Buying locally produced foods instead of stuff flown in from half a world away. Not flying across europe for a 1 hour business meeting. Reducing plastic packaging.
And there's good news too. We're continuing the excellent path of energy reduction in electric appliances. They had to keep adding "+"es and now rework the entire energy labels in Europe because "A++++" efficiency became too long.
I think COVID already brought us halfway there. We're no longer used to business meetings, the fragility of our supply chains has opened up many eyes, and most office workers now work from home at least part time and do just fine. For the environment this has all been pretty great :)
You don't get it, the rich can afford to care about the environment. The poor destroy it because they have no other choice and that's not a big conspiracy, it's what the Europeans and Americans did 200 years ago when they were poor.
A lot of the seemingly-dumb stuff happens because the market is a lot more effective at finding efficient solutions than gut feelings.
Some of it is also because externalities like pollution aren't priced in, but often the seemingly-bad thing is actually better by most metrics.
Reducing plastic packaging may be one such example: Sure, it reduces plastic waste, but it creates more wasted product, and packaging from stuff consumed in households is exceedingly unlikely to end up in the ocean in a western city that burns their trash in a waste-to-energy plant.
Some of it is also because externalities like pollution aren't priced in, but often the seemingly-bad thing is actually better by most metrics.
Reducing plastic packaging may be one such example: Sure, it reduces plastic waste, but it creates more wasted product, and packaging from stuff consumed in households is exceedingly unlikely to end up in the ocean in a western city that burns their trash in a waste-to-energy plant.
> We can't keep doing this
In the broadest possible sense, no, we can't keep doing "this": either we limit fertility somehow or we got the Malthusian limit eventually. That's just the consequence of the exponential function. And right now, whether population will stabilize on its own before we hit carrying capacity is an open question.
But if you hold population constant? Yes, we can keep doing this indefinitely, or at least until the sun boils the oceans in 500 million years or so. Why wouldn't we? There's every reason to believe that we can supply oranges in January to everyone.
Show me the math that says we can't. I'm not persuaded by rhetoric about rust bucket cargo ships. It's exactly this sort of sentimentality that makes it difficult to actually make progress on addressing actual climate problems.
In the broadest possible sense, no, we can't keep doing "this": either we limit fertility somehow or we got the Malthusian limit eventually. That's just the consequence of the exponential function. And right now, whether population will stabilize on its own before we hit carrying capacity is an open question.
But if you hold population constant? Yes, we can keep doing this indefinitely, or at least until the sun boils the oceans in 500 million years or so. Why wouldn't we? There's every reason to believe that we can supply oranges in January to everyone.
Show me the math that says we can't. I'm not persuaded by rhetoric about rust bucket cargo ships. It's exactly this sort of sentimentality that makes it difficult to actually make progress on addressing actual climate problems.
Right now most population models suggest we'll see growth flatten within decades, and peak within a century.
It's not really an open question - it would take reversal of long lasting trends in large parts of the world to do more than at most delay the reversal.
It's not really an open question - it would take reversal of long lasting trends in large parts of the world to do more than at most delay the reversal.
> Right now most population models suggest we'll see growth flatten within decades, and peak within a century.
We’re way off topic here but what the heck… in my entire life, I’ve not seen one single ‘population model’ play out accurately. We’ve seen dozens of popular ones that have failed to come true in the past century alone - what makes today’s different?
We’re way off topic here but what the heck… in my entire life, I’ve not seen one single ‘population model’ play out accurately. We’ve seen dozens of popular ones that have failed to come true in the past century alone - what makes today’s different?
That fertility rates have been consistently dropping in line with recent models for a long time [1]. Global fertility rates are already below 2.4, with ~2.1 the replacement rate.
China is currently set to face a reversal somewhere from the middle of this decade to 1-2 decades away depending on who you believe. India is set to follow. Many smaller countries are also reversing around now, but those two for obvious reasons have a huge impact.
The last holdouts with high fertility are a handful of sub-Saharan states, with Niger by far the worst (Somalia second - the two are the only countries in the world left with fertility rates above 6), but even Niger is seeing fertility rates plummet as it's economic growth have sped up.
The estimates varies massively based on various scenarios. E.g. on a current trajectory, China will see its population halve by 2100. It's likely you'll see the Chinese government do a lot to prevent the decline from being that steep because it will be an economic nightmare to manage, and so we can't assume the trajectories will remain unchanged.
But nobody is actively trying to get much above-replacement fertility rates, so any political interference is likely to moderate delay the peak not prevent it.
[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521
China is currently set to face a reversal somewhere from the middle of this decade to 1-2 decades away depending on who you believe. India is set to follow. Many smaller countries are also reversing around now, but those two for obvious reasons have a huge impact.
The last holdouts with high fertility are a handful of sub-Saharan states, with Niger by far the worst (Somalia second - the two are the only countries in the world left with fertility rates above 6), but even Niger is seeing fertility rates plummet as it's economic growth have sped up.
The estimates varies massively based on various scenarios. E.g. on a current trajectory, China will see its population halve by 2100. It's likely you'll see the Chinese government do a lot to prevent the decline from being that steep because it will be an economic nightmare to manage, and so we can't assume the trajectories will remain unchanged.
But nobody is actively trying to get much above-replacement fertility rates, so any political interference is likely to moderate delay the peak not prevent it.
[1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521
The reversal analysis you've mentioned doesn't take into account (not in the forms I've seen) the presence of high fertility subpopulations that will come to dominate larger low fertility populations eventually and drag everyone's fertility rate back up.
There are no "high fertility subpopulations" that maintain fertility rate irrespective of external situations. Research on immigration for example consistently show that immigrant populations adapt to local fertility levels within 1-2 generations. If anything, increasing immigration to developed countries would likely accelerate the reversal of population growth because of this effect.
Furthermore, fertility drops as education increases and poverty decreases. This trend is consistent in every population where we can correlate economic development. E.g. here's the fertility rate for Niger [1], one of the poorest countries in the world. Even that has taken a sharp downturn as economic growth has started decoupling from uranium export (which previously dominated Niger's GDP, but provided very little benefit to the population).
Niger, incidentally, has the highest fertility rate in the world, and is one of only 10 remaining countries with fertility rate above 5.
As such such "high fertility subpopulations" are really high poverty, low education populations - currently countries categorised as "Least Developed Countries" by the UN have a fertility rate of 4. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world that remains above 4, but that too is dropping fast as most of the countries in the region are seeing solid economic growth.
As poverty drops and education increases, fertility rates are dropping across the board, just not at the same rate. But even sub-Saharan African is headed for reversal.
[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...
Furthermore, fertility drops as education increases and poverty decreases. This trend is consistent in every population where we can correlate economic development. E.g. here's the fertility rate for Niger [1], one of the poorest countries in the world. Even that has taken a sharp downturn as economic growth has started decoupling from uranium export (which previously dominated Niger's GDP, but provided very little benefit to the population).
Niger, incidentally, has the highest fertility rate in the world, and is one of only 10 remaining countries with fertility rate above 5.
As such such "high fertility subpopulations" are really high poverty, low education populations - currently countries categorised as "Least Developed Countries" by the UN have a fertility rate of 4. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region of the world that remains above 4, but that too is dropping fast as most of the countries in the region are seeing solid economic growth.
As poverty drops and education increases, fertility rates are dropping across the board, just not at the same rate. But even sub-Saharan African is headed for reversal.
[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...
Best get on and solve it as an engineering issue before too many people read the Unabomber Manifesto...
Yes. But don’t forget that for many, berating people into living like a vegan hermit is part of the point, and if science solves that problem it gets taken away from them.
It’s the same people who want everyone to keep using masks even after vaccination.
It’s the same people who want everyone to keep using masks even after vaccination.
Where are those "masks forever" people? I hear about them, but I never seem to hear them. Is there a news report or something I can read?
For electricity generation, it'll be cheaper to build low-carbon generators. For long-distance jet travel, it's probably cheapest to turn the captured CO2 into fuel. For emissions from concrete, ambient capture and sequestration might be best.
The great thing about a price on carbon is that the market would sort all this out.
The great thing about a price on carbon is that the market would sort all this out.
$50 per tonne? A coal plant produces about a tonne of CO2 for every MWh produced. Industrial electricity price might be $50 per MWh. So just paying for the carbon capture doubles your electricity price? $100 carbon capture charge would triple it. I can't see how this could be competitive.
We have an excellent carbon storage technology, it's called coal. And what's best, it's already there, underground, very safely, proven for millions of years! With no cost!
But we're still building new coal plants in many places. In some places, coal plants and steel factories have shut down, but it's often because industry has been offshored to a place that uses coal, or they're replaced with natural gas, only a somewhat better alternative.
So if leaving coal unused can't be made to work, then more inefficient and thus expensive methods of carbon avoidance likely can't either.
It's like working hard in the car wash for the whole day and then at the end of the day, spending all the money you just earned on having your car washed. It's a bad strategy - you would have spent a lot less time and effort if you had just washed your car yourself.
When the coal and natural gas plants have been shut down, then carbon capture might have a role.
Nice page about world coal usage: https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-information-overview
We have an excellent carbon storage technology, it's called coal. And what's best, it's already there, underground, very safely, proven for millions of years! With no cost!
But we're still building new coal plants in many places. In some places, coal plants and steel factories have shut down, but it's often because industry has been offshored to a place that uses coal, or they're replaced with natural gas, only a somewhat better alternative.
So if leaving coal unused can't be made to work, then more inefficient and thus expensive methods of carbon avoidance likely can't either.
It's like working hard in the car wash for the whole day and then at the end of the day, spending all the money you just earned on having your car washed. It's a bad strategy - you would have spent a lot less time and effort if you had just washed your car yourself.
When the coal and natural gas plants have been shut down, then carbon capture might have a role.
Nice page about world coal usage: https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-information-overview
It doesn't have to be competitive, it has to be regulated. If coal plants and CO2 emissions heavy processes aren't viable once the cost of sequestering the carbon is charged to the people emitting the carbon, then they should give way to processes that do (or be expensive enough that they're only used when necessary)
We can't solve the crisis by trying our best not to disturb the status quo, things are going to get shaken up a bit.
We can't solve the crisis by trying our best not to disturb the status quo, things are going to get shaken up a bit.
Yes, though even now it's already possible to price CO2, yet somehow it doesn't factor in significantly in the price of goods produced with coal heavy electricity.
Double the price of coal sounds like an excellent thing!
Still very cheap. Promotes better sources of energy.
Still very cheap. Promotes better sources of energy.
Indeed. The fact is that coal energy externalities have been ignored, artificially depressing the cost. Increasing the cost of a product to reflect those externalities is not a "blow to the industry", but rather the first time in history coal's price will reflect its externalities.
Nope, it's not a great time to be a coal-miner, but I hear Biden is trying to spend $4T on infrastructure so maybe some of those miners can buy a truck and form a road maintenance company instead!
Nope, it's not a great time to be a coal-miner, but I hear Biden is trying to spend $4T on infrastructure so maybe some of those miners can buy a truck and form a road maintenance company instead!
The issues with coal mining are (a) it sucks and is dangerous, (b) therefore, people who do it, or whose families have done it, feel a lot of pride about it, (c) in the US, it's typically located in parts of states that don't have a lot of other employment (Wyoming, Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia).
If you're serious about getting rid of coal in the US, it needs to start with "We appreciate your and your family's work over the years, and here's a truckload of money and economic development for your region so that you can lay down that burden."
Nobody reacts favorably to doing a hard job, every day, and then listening to someone tell them they're killing the planet.
If you're serious about getting rid of coal in the US, it needs to start with "We appreciate your and your family's work over the years, and here's a truckload of money and economic development for your region so that you can lay down that burden."
Nobody reacts favorably to doing a hard job, every day, and then listening to someone tell them they're killing the planet.
Asbestos, AB somehow managed to get over their pride and stop fighting to continue mining asbestos. They’re still proud of the history and hard work that their town represents, but nobody there thinks it would be a better world if they were still digging asbestos out of the ground. (Heck, they finally renamed the town, too. It’s “Val-des-Sources” now.)
How the townsfolk there transitioned into that “doing it historically was good and necessary; but continuing to do it today would be dumb and bad” mindset might make for a good case-study. It’d certainly make for a more respectful and in-depth interview to do with them than just talking about the town’s name ;)
How the townsfolk there transitioned into that “doing it historically was good and necessary; but continuing to do it today would be dumb and bad” mindset might make for a good case-study. It’d certainly make for a more respectful and in-depth interview to do with them than just talking about the town’s name ;)
Wasn't that brought on by a precipitous fall in demand. I doubt the asbestos miners had any choice in the matter.
In case of coal, there's still _some_ demand though it's on the decline.
In case of coal, there's still _some_ demand though it's on the decline.
I think of that as the climate crisis's Prisoner's Dilemma: it's individually advantageous for countries to ignore carbon caps.
If carbon-heavy power generation didn't also emit particulate pollution, we probably wouldn't have a chance in hell. But thankfully, renewables and electric vehicle are also a solution to the pollution problem in many high-population areas.
But afaik, this will be the first time we're asking entire countries to forgoe huge things in their immediate best interest, in pursuit of a greater good.
The Montreal Protocol didn't touch as huge of a part of the economy, and nuclear weapons are their own ball of thistles.
Removing lead from gasoline is probably the nearest analog, although with a much lower adoption burden.
If carbon-heavy power generation didn't also emit particulate pollution, we probably wouldn't have a chance in hell. But thankfully, renewables and electric vehicle are also a solution to the pollution problem in many high-population areas.
But afaik, this will be the first time we're asking entire countries to forgoe huge things in their immediate best interest, in pursuit of a greater good.
The Montreal Protocol didn't touch as huge of a part of the economy, and nuclear weapons are their own ball of thistles.
Removing lead from gasoline is probably the nearest analog, although with a much lower adoption burden.
> (a) it sucks and is dangerous, (b) therefore, people who do it, or whose families have done it, feel a lot of pride about it
We really need to get rid of that “proud to kill myself to make my employer richer” trait.
> "We appreciate your and your family's work over the years, and here's a truckload of money and economic development for your region so that you can lay down that burden."
It’s only fair.
We really need to get rid of that “proud to kill myself to make my employer richer” trait.
> "We appreciate your and your family's work over the years, and here's a truckload of money and economic development for your region so that you can lay down that burden."
It’s only fair.
They’re not proud because they’re killing themselves for their employer, they’re proud for killing themselves to feed their families, and perhaps because they are creating energy for others to use.
Nobody should have to choose between living a healthy life and feeding their family.
Ok, but people did.
And there's a certain amount of pride in that struggle.
And there's a certain amount of pride in that struggle.
[deleted]
That is a strange way to say "perhaps I jumped to conclusions assuming people who are proud to be miners are foolish and ignorant for doing so"
>Nobody reacts favorably to doing a hard job, every day, and then listening to someone tell them they're killing the planet.
Sorry, but them's the breaks! Don't mean to sound harsh, but larger industries have died for worse reasons. What you do is what the wage earner did in the past: you suck it up and you move on because you have to provide for your family.
How many layers of industries have we invented and then rendered obsolete by subsequent industries? That number varies, in energy alone consider all the changes in distribution, extraction, etc. There has been a great deal of change in our understanding of the world since the invention of the coal industry, and it turns out coal is far more expensive than we realized.
I can see though why this seems synthetic, and why one would be motivated to challenge the assertion of fact. And it is true, that this argument is "synthetic" in the sense that it requires synthesizing many different observations spread over time and space using methods most of us aren't familiar with.
But a lot of us are swayed by the argument that using all this stored up energy in the ground has a side-effect of increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in direct proportion to that consumption, and that this in turn is unwanted because CO2 is opaque to IR, and it will increase global temperature.
There is a "false debate" about whether or not the global temperature is actually increasing. If you look at the data, or even just the satellite photos of the arctic over time, you should be convinced that there is no debate, and its just a simple fact. (And while a conspiracy that has modified those images is technically a possibility, I think there's enough on-the-ground evidence to back it up. If those Richard Attenborough narrated programs are computer generated, then they have rendering technology beyond anything in Hollywood.)
This simple assertion of fact (and its acceptance by a strong majority) has real ramifications for us in the most personal of ways, because it is a matter of the quality of life for our kids and grand-kids.
The scale of the change we must make is going to be big, and I think the coal miners are going to get the least of it. We Americans are all going to have to consider our consumption more carefully, become more frugal, more European. Our cars will shrink, and become electric. Our physical store options will become more limited, but computer mediated options more diverse, more local, more self-sustaining.
Ideally this change comes naturally as small town kids get educated in major universities in big cities, and are introduced to what I can only describe as an "Enlightenment Era Ethos", one that is rational, reasonable, skeptical, experimental (and innovative), and which is clearly convinced of the reality and importance of Global Warming. Personally, I'm convinced on first principles. Clearly energy expenditure we make, moving a 4-ton SUV 15 miles each way for one person to go to the supermarket, where each item comes wrapped in its own weight of disposable, nested wrappers that serves more of a marketing purpose than a "safe food delivery" purpose."
America can and must go through what I call the "Contraction", where life here becomes more European, communal, local and frugal in terms of the daily details of your life. There will also be the further embrace of a national safety net, and not just for old people. My hope is that cultural shifts will help major chains like Starbucks contract, too, being eclipsed by local cafes with better products, made with greater care, at similar prices, and giving more people the experience of running a business and being the boss! Heck, I would like to see the return of the local ISP business, just a rack of computers in an office park with battery backups and a person who knows how to maintain it all and secure it.
So, don't be fooled. American coal workers have an outsized influence on national politics in those states because reasons. Their jobs aren't more sacred than anyone elses and if they feel "tied to the land" or their "way of life", I tell them: I'm sorry. We will all need to change if we're to keep our ecosystem healthy by averting a possibly unfixible tragedy.
I will volunteer right now and in a legally binding way, to tutor, for free, any coal miner who wants to learn how to code for a living. Reach out via profile. First come, first serve.
Sorry, but them's the breaks! Don't mean to sound harsh, but larger industries have died for worse reasons. What you do is what the wage earner did in the past: you suck it up and you move on because you have to provide for your family.
How many layers of industries have we invented and then rendered obsolete by subsequent industries? That number varies, in energy alone consider all the changes in distribution, extraction, etc. There has been a great deal of change in our understanding of the world since the invention of the coal industry, and it turns out coal is far more expensive than we realized.
I can see though why this seems synthetic, and why one would be motivated to challenge the assertion of fact. And it is true, that this argument is "synthetic" in the sense that it requires synthesizing many different observations spread over time and space using methods most of us aren't familiar with.
But a lot of us are swayed by the argument that using all this stored up energy in the ground has a side-effect of increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in direct proportion to that consumption, and that this in turn is unwanted because CO2 is opaque to IR, and it will increase global temperature.
There is a "false debate" about whether or not the global temperature is actually increasing. If you look at the data, or even just the satellite photos of the arctic over time, you should be convinced that there is no debate, and its just a simple fact. (And while a conspiracy that has modified those images is technically a possibility, I think there's enough on-the-ground evidence to back it up. If those Richard Attenborough narrated programs are computer generated, then they have rendering technology beyond anything in Hollywood.)
This simple assertion of fact (and its acceptance by a strong majority) has real ramifications for us in the most personal of ways, because it is a matter of the quality of life for our kids and grand-kids.
The scale of the change we must make is going to be big, and I think the coal miners are going to get the least of it. We Americans are all going to have to consider our consumption more carefully, become more frugal, more European. Our cars will shrink, and become electric. Our physical store options will become more limited, but computer mediated options more diverse, more local, more self-sustaining.
Ideally this change comes naturally as small town kids get educated in major universities in big cities, and are introduced to what I can only describe as an "Enlightenment Era Ethos", one that is rational, reasonable, skeptical, experimental (and innovative), and which is clearly convinced of the reality and importance of Global Warming. Personally, I'm convinced on first principles. Clearly energy expenditure we make, moving a 4-ton SUV 15 miles each way for one person to go to the supermarket, where each item comes wrapped in its own weight of disposable, nested wrappers that serves more of a marketing purpose than a "safe food delivery" purpose."
America can and must go through what I call the "Contraction", where life here becomes more European, communal, local and frugal in terms of the daily details of your life. There will also be the further embrace of a national safety net, and not just for old people. My hope is that cultural shifts will help major chains like Starbucks contract, too, being eclipsed by local cafes with better products, made with greater care, at similar prices, and giving more people the experience of running a business and being the boss! Heck, I would like to see the return of the local ISP business, just a rack of computers in an office park with battery backups and a person who knows how to maintain it all and secure it.
So, don't be fooled. American coal workers have an outsized influence on national politics in those states because reasons. Their jobs aren't more sacred than anyone elses and if they feel "tied to the land" or their "way of life", I tell them: I'm sorry. We will all need to change if we're to keep our ecosystem healthy by averting a possibly unfixible tragedy.
I will volunteer right now and in a legally binding way, to tutor, for free, any coal miner who wants to learn how to code for a living. Reach out via profile. First come, first serve.
> I can't see how this could be competitive.
It can't. Coal plants are dinosaurs that need to be shut down. Charging a carbon price is one way to make that happen faster.
It can't. Coal plants are dinosaurs that need to be shut down. Charging a carbon price is one way to make that happen faster.
It certainly makes no sense to capture CO2 from burning coal. But lots of industries are harder to decarbonize than electricity production. On top of that, we're past the point where just stopping emissions is enough; we have to draw CO2 levels back down.
Capturing CO2 from burned biomass (or waste) would provide a CO2-negative energy source. Not enough to run the world, but nice to have.
Be aware that capturing exhaust CO2 of coal plants is about the cheapest source of CO2 for capturing, as you just need to pre-enrich the air in oxygen to get nearly-pure CO2 exhaust.
This expensive part is for capturing CO2 out of ambient air, where you only get like 0.04%.
This expensive part is for capturing CO2 out of ambient air, where you only get like 0.04%.
If coal plants produce 50$ in unaccounted externalities for every 1MWh they produce, is it fair to any of us to allow them not to have to pay for it's mitigation?
thats a good point, I'd argue given that CO2 concentration in atmosphere is a public bad (as in taking ability to sustain life out of 'common biosphere'), the cost to remove it on a per unit basis represents a good measure of externalized costs of unmitigated pollution (just co2, ignoring other pollutants for the moment).
this is doubly good because it provides a great incentive for the free market to minimize the costs of CO2 sequestration and hopefully will let us hit the knee of the optimization curve asap.
this is doubly good because it provides a great incentive for the free market to minimize the costs of CO2 sequestration and hopefully will let us hit the knee of the optimization curve asap.
Co2 pricing is not the only way though. You could give co2 capturing gas peakers a strike price in the same way as renewables. Or have a capacity market that is only open to carbon capturing energy sources.
How does one leverage this excellent carbon storage technology ? Plant fast-growing trees/crops, cut them upon maturity and bury them underground ?
The closest thing we have to coal creation is biochar, so you plant the trees and then anaerobically pyrolyze the material and put it underground.
Simple - don't light it on fire.
The government will pay for it so they can keep a few coal workers in business and get their influencial votes
Maybe you can help enlighten me on this. I've been struggling to understand the basics thermodynamics of carbon capture for quite some time.
So we have a hydro-carbon, we mix it with oxygen, and the oxygen combines with the hydrogen and the carbon, and releases heat as a byproduct. The heat energy increases the pressure of the newly created CO2. This higher pressure is placed on one side of a turbine or a piston, and we extract useful work by moving it from a high density state to a low density state, causing it to cool in the process.
Now it seems like if you want to re-concentrate that CO2, it should take at least as much work to compress it back to its original size as it released when you burned it in the first place, and probably a lot more, because the CO2 has been diffused into the general atmosphere.
To state it more succinctly, we extract work through a pressure differential, and by reversing that pressure differential, won't that require more work than we got out in the first place by the second law of thermodynamics?
I ignored the part where part of the energy is coming from the hydrogen. Is the hydrogen -> water where most of the energy is coming from, and the carbon part relatively insignificant?
So we have a hydro-carbon, we mix it with oxygen, and the oxygen combines with the hydrogen and the carbon, and releases heat as a byproduct. The heat energy increases the pressure of the newly created CO2. This higher pressure is placed on one side of a turbine or a piston, and we extract useful work by moving it from a high density state to a low density state, causing it to cool in the process.
Now it seems like if you want to re-concentrate that CO2, it should take at least as much work to compress it back to its original size as it released when you burned it in the first place, and probably a lot more, because the CO2 has been diffused into the general atmosphere.
To state it more succinctly, we extract work through a pressure differential, and by reversing that pressure differential, won't that require more work than we got out in the first place by the second law of thermodynamics?
I ignored the part where part of the energy is coming from the hydrogen. Is the hydrogen -> water where most of the energy is coming from, and the carbon part relatively insignificant?
This is a really good question, and a bit deeper than it first appears. So here is some semi-educated spitballing (I'm a chemist, but thermodynamics was a while ago):
1. Immediately after ignition, you have a low-volume, high-pressure, high-temperature amount of gas. Sequestration does not aim to turn CO2 back to this exact same state, but only a high-ish, average-temperature state.
2. Combustion often evolves more molecules of gas (look at the formula for the combustion of octane, and remember that water after combustion will be a gas). This increases the pressure, but is not something that needs to be reversed during sequestration.
3. Carbon dioxide isn't bad, but having too much in the atmosphere is. Sequestration doesn't aim to completely reverse the reaction in the first place, it just aims to remove it from the atmosphere so that it can't act as a greenhouse gas.
1. Immediately after ignition, you have a low-volume, high-pressure, high-temperature amount of gas. Sequestration does not aim to turn CO2 back to this exact same state, but only a high-ish, average-temperature state.
2. Combustion often evolves more molecules of gas (look at the formula for the combustion of octane, and remember that water after combustion will be a gas). This increases the pressure, but is not something that needs to be reversed during sequestration.
3. Carbon dioxide isn't bad, but having too much in the atmosphere is. Sequestration doesn't aim to completely reverse the reaction in the first place, it just aims to remove it from the atmosphere so that it can't act as a greenhouse gas.
Enthalpy of combustion for CH4 is 802 kJ and for an equivalent amount of gaseous hydrogen it's 286 kJ so most of the energy does come from the carbon.
That's not how chemistry works. Burning 1 CH4 is not the same as burning 1 C and 2 H2. The formation of carbon dioxide (aka the combustion of carbon) contributes 393.5 kJ per mole of CH4 combusted, and the formation of water (aka the combustion of hydrogen) contributes 483.6 kJ per mole of CH4, the activation energy to split the CH4 molecule is 74.8 kJ per mole of CH4 combusted. So 55% of the heat released per mole is from the hydrogen.
The goal is not to re-create fuel, but to clean up the waste. This is more like sweeping out the ashtray
> he heat energy increases the pressure of the newly created CO2. This higher pressure is placed on one side of a turbine or a piston, and we extract useful work by moving it from a high density state to a low density state, causing it to cool in the process.
You run the hot, high-pressure gas through a turbine to give you less-hot, lower-pressure gas. You then extract as much waste heat out of that stream as you can via a heat exchanger process, to pre-heat incoming fuel/air and to recover more energy by boiling water to run through another turbine.
At the end of the process, you have a medium-temperature stream of combustion product that has high concentrations of CO2. You capture the carbon from this stream, before releasing the last bits of gas to the atmosphere.
You gain usable energy out of the process because all of the heat movement happens through a turbine (to directly generate energy) or through a heat exchanger (to recycle the heat to other more useful parts of the process).
You run the hot, high-pressure gas through a turbine to give you less-hot, lower-pressure gas. You then extract as much waste heat out of that stream as you can via a heat exchanger process, to pre-heat incoming fuel/air and to recover more energy by boiling water to run through another turbine.
At the end of the process, you have a medium-temperature stream of combustion product that has high concentrations of CO2. You capture the carbon from this stream, before releasing the last bits of gas to the atmosphere.
You gain usable energy out of the process because all of the heat movement happens through a turbine (to directly generate energy) or through a heat exchanger (to recycle the heat to other more useful parts of the process).
Expanding on what others have noted:
Heat engines take advantage of the fact that expanding a hot fluid releases more energy than it takes to compress a cold fluid - the difference being that combustion energy. Indeed the pressure difference is only there to make the process more efficient - so long as there is a temperature gradient you can extract energy even with no pressure gradient.
Heat engines take advantage of the fact that expanding a hot fluid releases more energy than it takes to compress a cold fluid - the difference being that combustion energy. Indeed the pressure difference is only there to make the process more efficient - so long as there is a temperature gradient you can extract energy even with no pressure gradient.
You are mostly right, but the missing part is that you don't need to turn the CO2 back into a hydrocarbon fuel, you just need to turn it into something that isn't gaseous CO2.
So carbon capture hinges on the idea that we can find a low-energy route that involves a chemical reaction with CO2 that produces something that isn't a fuel but isn't gaseous CO2 either. And that we can find a LOT of it.
So carbon capture hinges on the idea that we can find a low-energy route that involves a chemical reaction with CO2 that produces something that isn't a fuel but isn't gaseous CO2 either. And that we can find a LOT of it.
> My experience on a 2009 carbon capture plant design was that approx $100 per tonne of CO2 was the lowest carbon price that would really make carbon sequestration highly attractive and widespread.
Is there a market for captured carbon? I understand there is a small market for industrial process and carbonated water, but are there people buying long-term capture in large enough quantities to make an impact?
Anyway, I don't think the price matters on that scale. Once we decarbonize electricity, I think it will be governments and non-profits that will do most of the carbon capture (unless there exists a large market for my previous question), and for those a lower price only means a higher rate of growth, not the difference between viable or non-viable.
Is there a market for captured carbon? I understand there is a small market for industrial process and carbonated water, but are there people buying long-term capture in large enough quantities to make an impact?
Anyway, I don't think the price matters on that scale. Once we decarbonize electricity, I think it will be governments and non-profits that will do most of the carbon capture (unless there exists a large market for my previous question), and for those a lower price only means a higher rate of growth, not the difference between viable or non-viable.
The fossil fuel CO2 tax in Switzerland is currently 96 CHF = 102 USD.
I agree that avoiding emissions in the first place is preferable to trying to figure out how to undo the emissions afterwards.
Mental model of emission removal scope is some giant world system maybe 1x or 2x the size of the fossil fuel industry, trying to run in reverse what we've spent the last hundred or two years doing.
Carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax. Something significant like $250 / ton. Cannot come soon enough. Ideally a global carbon tax, failing that just between a few countries & with tariffs or sanctions or so on to penalize trading partners that don't regulate externalities of pollution.
Mental model of emission removal scope is some giant world system maybe 1x or 2x the size of the fossil fuel industry, trying to run in reverse what we've spent the last hundred or two years doing.
Carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax. Something significant like $250 / ton. Cannot come soon enough. Ideally a global carbon tax, failing that just between a few countries & with tariffs or sanctions or so on to penalize trading partners that don't regulate externalities of pollution.
Exactly that's what I think too. We have to do the removal much faster than we did the actual burning. And the removal will only cost us money, not fuel our economy. I just don't see this happening at significant enough scale. And the capture will have lots of environmental impact too if we do it at that massive scale.
And I agree about the carbon tax. It could even pay for some of the removal.
The strange thing here now in Europe is that greener alternatives like trains are taxed much higher than dirtier ones like airplanes. Because trains have VAT taxes on them, but the planes fly on kerosene that's exempt from tax and the price kept down due to international agreements.
As a result trains aren't a reasonable alternative and won't be for at least the next 20 years or so (as the train network would have to be scaled up significantly which would have been happening already if it was more a better alternative to flying). It's a shame because Europe is a great place for this with lots of short-distance trips.
And I agree about the carbon tax. It could even pay for some of the removal.
The strange thing here now in Europe is that greener alternatives like trains are taxed much higher than dirtier ones like airplanes. Because trains have VAT taxes on them, but the planes fly on kerosene that's exempt from tax and the price kept down due to international agreements.
As a result trains aren't a reasonable alternative and won't be for at least the next 20 years or so (as the train network would have to be scaled up significantly which would have been happening already if it was more a better alternative to flying). It's a shame because Europe is a great place for this with lots of short-distance trips.
Most european rail is given huge government subsidies too, though. Also flights in the EU already have to pay for emissions as part of the EU emissions trading scheme.
At least in Germany, car subsidies (investments in road infrastructure) are significantly larger than any investments in rail infrastructure.
As a rule of thumb, any attempt to control things on a global scale when there are millions of unknown variables will always have unexpected drawbacks and more likely than not, the drawbacks will not be worth the benefits.
If we could capture carbon by itself, we wouldn't bury it, we could make all kinds of stuff with it. The problem, approximately, is that you get energy from oxidising stuff, and have to put energy in to reduce it.
Of course, turning solar energy plus carbon dioxide into sequestered carbon and O2 is what plants do, but evidently not enough compared to human action. I do wonder whether biological (plants, algae) action, aided by genetic modification, could do more for atmospheric CO2.
Of course, turning solar energy plus carbon dioxide into sequestered carbon and O2 is what plants do, but evidently not enough compared to human action. I do wonder whether biological (plants, algae) action, aided by genetic modification, could do more for atmospheric CO2.
For making a dent in global warming we'll need to have billions of people reduce their energy consumption..
I wonder if this won't be a governance hazard in itself. What do we do after we create a global governance structure to reduce global emissions. We can't just tell people to stop using so much carbon.
I wonder if reduction causes more problems than it solves. Even if we magically could reduce everyones consumption, how do we deal with population growth assuming humans still produce some carbon.
I think we should really remove existing CO2 from the environment instead. Every ton of CO2 that can be captured and removed from the environment means some family in a poor country can enjoy the benefit of industrialization.
Of course we're already on a path of significant global warning so I don't think we have a choice either way.
I wonder if this won't be a governance hazard in itself. What do we do after we create a global governance structure to reduce global emissions. We can't just tell people to stop using so much carbon.
I wonder if reduction causes more problems than it solves. Even if we magically could reduce everyones consumption, how do we deal with population growth assuming humans still produce some carbon.
I think we should really remove existing CO2 from the environment instead. Every ton of CO2 that can be captured and removed from the environment means some family in a poor country can enjoy the benefit of industrialization.
Of course we're already on a path of significant global warning so I don't think we have a choice either way.
Key is to plant plans and trees. Billions of them. Our energy needs will only become bigger. Transition to renewable economy is in progress. That's good. But there is not enough focus on plants and trees.
For any mitigation solution, you have to ask 3 questions
1) How much does it cost
2) How much space does it require
3) How does it scale
Planting trees performs excellent on (1) but terribly on (2) and (3). According to Bill Gates' recent book on the topic (where he aims as best has he can to summarize the state of knowledge as per today), you'd basically have to make a big forest of the rest of the world just to offset US emissions.
In addition, it's not enough to plant trees, you have to plant trees where there wouldn't have grown any if you were not planting (i.e. making forest out of non-forest). This is going to put an additional huge strain on the need for land to feed more mouths, which is a problem that is only becoming more precarious.
Planting trees performs excellent on (1) but terribly on (2) and (3). According to Bill Gates' recent book on the topic (where he aims as best has he can to summarize the state of knowledge as per today), you'd basically have to make a big forest of the rest of the world just to offset US emissions.
In addition, it's not enough to plant trees, you have to plant trees where there wouldn't have grown any if you were not planting (i.e. making forest out of non-forest). This is going to put an additional huge strain on the need for land to feed more mouths, which is a problem that is only becoming more precarious.
Yes and trees only store CO2 while they are alive. Once they die and rot, it's released back into the environment.
Also monocultures with fast groing trees that ideally can be harvested come with their own problems.
Planting trees is good way to do something now, but it's not going to solve the problem forever.
You're supposed to turn the Sahara into a green forest. The obvious problem is that you would need the cooperation of those countries.
Avoiding emissions would certainly be better. It is supremely inefficient to dig up and burn fuel now then capture it and bury it later.
But current global plan is to keep doing the first part, so we’ll have to undo it. We actually already likely have too much CO2 in the atmosphere. Even if we went to zero emissions today the climate would keep warming from the accumulated CO2 and feedback effects. Takes some years for those to work through the system.
But current global plan is to keep doing the first part, so we’ll have to undo it. We actually already likely have too much CO2 in the atmosphere. Even if we went to zero emissions today the climate would keep warming from the accumulated CO2 and feedback effects. Takes some years for those to work through the system.
Well, anyone can decide to run potential future capture plants, cleaning up after others (that includes the previous generations), while everyone would have to agree to reduce emissions.
What looks inefficient as far as pure physics goes, might be very efficient politically. Build some solar power plants in the Sahara, use the energy to sequester carbon, pay poor countries like Niger some money for that, reduce the current migration stream to Europe by creating local green jobs - that does not sound too bad.
What looks inefficient as far as pure physics goes, might be very efficient politically. Build some solar power plants in the Sahara, use the energy to sequester carbon, pay poor countries like Niger some money for that, reduce the current migration stream to Europe by creating local green jobs - that does not sound too bad.
> I wonder if this won't be an environmental hazard in itself. What do we do with it after it's captured its CO2?
I don't see coal being an environmental hazard and that's carbon captured in the ground. Plus you have to ask whether some risk of leaks or whatever is worse than not even trying at all.
> I don't think we'll manage to do significant CO2 capture before the effects are irreversible anyway.
- Without joking: not with that attitude we won't. Let's not quit before trying?
- We need all solutions to develop and mature right now. If it turns out cement remains unsolved, for example, or maybe it's fertilizer that we can't find a solution for or we can't get the solution to farmers in low income countries, then having a way of removing said issue indirectly will still be helpful.
- There are different degrees to overshooting. A +3°C climate (already way too hot by current estimates) is still better than a +5°C. Maybe the runaway effects at +3 make it into +5, but also, those effects take time to run their course. Anything we do to slow down, reverse, control, it all buys us time to decide what options to deploy. "We won't manage anyway, why bother" is the only wrong path to walk down. Maybe we can adapt to +4, but without tech to reduce emissions or counter a runaway effect, it won't stay at +4.
I don't see coal being an environmental hazard and that's carbon captured in the ground. Plus you have to ask whether some risk of leaks or whatever is worse than not even trying at all.
> I don't think we'll manage to do significant CO2 capture before the effects are irreversible anyway.
- Without joking: not with that attitude we won't. Let's not quit before trying?
- We need all solutions to develop and mature right now. If it turns out cement remains unsolved, for example, or maybe it's fertilizer that we can't find a solution for or we can't get the solution to farmers in low income countries, then having a way of removing said issue indirectly will still be helpful.
- There are different degrees to overshooting. A +3°C climate (already way too hot by current estimates) is still better than a +5°C. Maybe the runaway effects at +3 make it into +5, but also, those effects take time to run their course. Anything we do to slow down, reverse, control, it all buys us time to decide what options to deploy. "We won't manage anyway, why bother" is the only wrong path to walk down. Maybe we can adapt to +4, but without tech to reduce emissions or counter a runaway effect, it won't stay at +4.
> I don't see coal being an environmental hazard and that's carbon captured in the ground. Plus you have to ask whether some risk of leaks or whatever is worse than not even trying at all.
When it's in the ground it's not, no. But when we try to take it out or put it back in it does cause significant environmental disruption. Especially open mining.
> - Without joking: not with that attitude we won't. Let's not quit before trying?
Because any effort and money we throw at this won't go to things that are more likely to work. The scale to make CO2 capture actually make a difference is huge. Even the thought of producing and siting all those capture factories is mindbogglingly difficult without creating even bigger problems. For example: If we have to ship all their machinery and steel from China, we're likely to emit more CO2 than they will capture in years.
Like I said I'm open to being proven wrong but I don't think it will ever scale to this level.
When it's in the ground it's not, no. But when we try to take it out or put it back in it does cause significant environmental disruption. Especially open mining.
> - Without joking: not with that attitude we won't. Let's not quit before trying?
Because any effort and money we throw at this won't go to things that are more likely to work. The scale to make CO2 capture actually make a difference is huge. Even the thought of producing and siting all those capture factories is mindbogglingly difficult without creating even bigger problems. For example: If we have to ship all their machinery and steel from China, we're likely to emit more CO2 than they will capture in years.
Like I said I'm open to being proven wrong but I don't think it will ever scale to this level.
It's important to throw money at this, but also to throw brains that could bring surprisingly simple ideas. Have you seen tech like https://noyalabs.com ? There's no need to create a capture factory with their approach.
"I don't see coal being an environmental hazard"
As long as you do not accidentally set it on fire ...
This is actually fairly close to Aachen, no?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brennender_Berg
As long as you do not accidentally set it on fire ...
This is actually fairly close to Aachen, no?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brennender_Berg
Underground saline aquifers are an excellent place to store CO2, and worldwide storage space is estimated to be orders of magnitude above what is ever going to be needed.
Also, keep in mind that CO2 is not stored as a gas, but in dense phase (liquid-like), due to the high pore pressures at the depths considered (> 3000 feet), well above the CO2 critical point.
At these depths, any leakage to the surface would be negligeable unless you make a really lousy job in choosing your reservoir.
I agree that we should aim to reduce energy usage, but I would argue we would need to both. As often said, there is no "silver bullet" to dealing with climate change, only the possibility of a "silver buckshot", where we'll have to do many large changes at once. Even if we could transit to 100% "green energy" overnight, that alone wouldn't take care of more than less than half of current emissions.
A third of emissions come from industrial processes, much of which entirely unrelated to the energy used. In a nutshell, these emissions can be reduced using CO2 capture/storage, or alternatively we could stop making things such as steel, cement or fertilizer.
Also, keep in mind that CO2 is not stored as a gas, but in dense phase (liquid-like), due to the high pore pressures at the depths considered (> 3000 feet), well above the CO2 critical point.
At these depths, any leakage to the surface would be negligeable unless you make a really lousy job in choosing your reservoir.
I agree that we should aim to reduce energy usage, but I would argue we would need to both. As often said, there is no "silver bullet" to dealing with climate change, only the possibility of a "silver buckshot", where we'll have to do many large changes at once. Even if we could transit to 100% "green energy" overnight, that alone wouldn't take care of more than less than half of current emissions.
A third of emissions come from industrial processes, much of which entirely unrelated to the energy used. In a nutshell, these emissions can be reduced using CO2 capture/storage, or alternatively we could stop making things such as steel, cement or fertilizer.
"just reduce our energy usage" has been the plan for decades, and it's easier said than done. Also:
"Our hardest climate problems – the ones that are both large and lack obvious solutions – are agriculture (and deforestation – its major side effect) and industry. Together these are 45% of global carbon emissions. And solutions are scarce."
https://techcrunch.com/2019/02/15/how-to-decarbonize-america...
At the very least I think carbon capture makes sense for the long tail of industrial processes where the "CO2 emission" to "cost of reinventing process" ratio starts to get less and less favorable.
But even if you think we can decarbonize every last industrial process, we might as well develop carbon capture in case too much carbon gets emitted before that goal is achieved.
"Our hardest climate problems – the ones that are both large and lack obvious solutions – are agriculture (and deforestation – its major side effect) and industry. Together these are 45% of global carbon emissions. And solutions are scarce."
https://techcrunch.com/2019/02/15/how-to-decarbonize-america...
At the very least I think carbon capture makes sense for the long tail of industrial processes where the "CO2 emission" to "cost of reinventing process" ratio starts to get less and less favorable.
But even if you think we can decarbonize every last industrial process, we might as well develop carbon capture in case too much carbon gets emitted before that goal is achieved.
Yes most people do not fully grasp the scale of the problem. Any way you attack it the scale is absurd making almost all solutions crazy. Getting the co2 back and putting it somewhere, ceasing all fossil fuel use, storing enough energy for wind and solar to work, all of these are trillion dollars scale global moonshot projects.
*but so its all of the energy/money/effort that goes into modern fossil fuel extraction and processing so it isn't fundamentally impossible*
*but so its all of the energy/money/effort that goes into modern fossil fuel extraction and processing so it isn't fundamentally impossible*
The effects are irreversible. Once the permafrost began to thaw, and that started back in the 80’s, it’s been game over. The permafrost is releasing massive amounts of CO2, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide, in about 10 years the earth itself will be releasing as much greenhouse gasses as humans release.
The entirety of the Paris agreement has been a joke, cap warming? You can’t cap the warming, you need to put the earth into a stable situation to cap the warming, but that’s not possible. The earth’s climate has a number of positive feedback loops running, positive feedback loops don’t stop until either they run out of “fuel” in this case it would be greenhouse gases as the fuel, but with the permafrost thawing it will continue to thaw and release greenhouse gases, causing more warming, causing more gases to be released.
The other way to stop a positive feedback loop is a disruptive event. The climate positive feedback loop is massive so the disruptive event would also need to be massive, like a large meteor hitting the earth, or a super volcano erupting, of course both of those events would kill most life on earth, but it would stop global warming.
All we can do is witness what we’ve set into motion. What I think will happen is that through the acidification of the oceans the phytoplankton population will crash. Phytoplankton is the basis for the entire marine ecosystem, when that population crash happens, the entirety of the marine food chain will collapse quickly. 40% of the world’s population relies on the ocean as their primary source of protein.
The entirety of the Paris agreement has been a joke, cap warming? You can’t cap the warming, you need to put the earth into a stable situation to cap the warming, but that’s not possible. The earth’s climate has a number of positive feedback loops running, positive feedback loops don’t stop until either they run out of “fuel” in this case it would be greenhouse gases as the fuel, but with the permafrost thawing it will continue to thaw and release greenhouse gases, causing more warming, causing more gases to be released.
The other way to stop a positive feedback loop is a disruptive event. The climate positive feedback loop is massive so the disruptive event would also need to be massive, like a large meteor hitting the earth, or a super volcano erupting, of course both of those events would kill most life on earth, but it would stop global warming.
All we can do is witness what we’ve set into motion. What I think will happen is that through the acidification of the oceans the phytoplankton population will crash. Phytoplankton is the basis for the entire marine ecosystem, when that population crash happens, the entirety of the marine food chain will collapse quickly. 40% of the world’s population relies on the ocean as their primary source of protein.
Reducing energy usage is just the slow path to extinction. We’ll never become a multi-planet civilization with that attitude.
Also if you believe the science, reducing energy usage won’t meet targets. The developed world will have to go carbon negative over the next couple of decades to counter growing CO2 emissions in the developing world.
Also if you believe the science, reducing energy usage won’t meet targets. The developed world will have to go carbon negative over the next couple of decades to counter growing CO2 emissions in the developing world.
What do increases in energy efficiency and terrestrial electricity generation have to do with launching people in rockets? Or have anything to do with "extinction"?
>I think we should really reduce our energy usage instead.
There is no viable future scenario in which mankind's energy usage decreases. It's a pipe dream, and ultimately a dangerous one.
Energy use is fundamentally tied to progress to such an extent that we should always be looking for ways to increase the energy available to us.
Of course the energy should be produced in as low-impact a manner as possible, but it's long past time to accept that energy usage will go up, not down.
There is no viable future scenario in which mankind's energy usage decreases. It's a pipe dream, and ultimately a dangerous one.
Energy use is fundamentally tied to progress to such an extent that we should always be looking for ways to increase the energy available to us.
Of course the energy should be produced in as low-impact a manner as possible, but it's long past time to accept that energy usage will go up, not down.
It seems this excludes increases in efficiencies. For example today we have lighting that uses a small fraction of the power of a couple decades ago.
Plus we're nearing peak populations, after which the number of humans will be going down.
Plus we're nearing peak populations, after which the number of humans will be going down.
Energy efficiencies do not decrease energy use, you just get more of the cheaper thing.
I agree more with the second point; the way that I'd say that is humans as a species will never self-moderate energy use.
I agree more with the second point; the way that I'd say that is humans as a species will never self-moderate energy use.
This is false, energy efficiencies do decrease energy use, in most situations. Jevon's paradox is the exception, not the rule.
For example, increasing fuel efficiency of cars does decrease energy use, because fuel cost is not the limiting factor foe most car travel. Similarly, more efficient lighting, more efficient home space heating and water heating, and better weatherization of homes, all increase energy efficiency and decrease energy use.
There's only so much lighting I would ever want to use, only so much heat, only so much time I want to spend in a car. Energy efficiency is one of the most powerful tools we have to reduce pollution, because it makes all the other things easier.
For example, increasing fuel efficiency of cars does decrease energy use, because fuel cost is not the limiting factor foe most car travel. Similarly, more efficient lighting, more efficient home space heating and water heating, and better weatherization of homes, all increase energy efficiency and decrease energy use.
There's only so much lighting I would ever want to use, only so much heat, only so much time I want to spend in a car. Energy efficiency is one of the most powerful tools we have to reduce pollution, because it makes all the other things easier.
As an anecdote: if you take an ant population (or any controllable population), and put it into a confined space with constrained resources, the population eventually dies due to one of two things:
1. Elimination of resources
2. Excessive waste product (in this case, excrement and bodily wastes; pollution)
1. Elimination of resources
2. Excessive waste product (in this case, excrement and bodily wastes; pollution)
You seem to be talking about the need of a species to rely on a greater ecosystem in order to survive. However, I'm not sure how that relates to demand elasticity and energy efficiency. Perhaps you could be a bit more explicit?
Yeah, and if the sun turns off and stops pumping 174 PW into our system, we'd be pretty screwed. Luckily we do not live in a confined space with constrained resources.
>For example, increasing fuel efficiency of cars does decrease energy use
MPG from passenger car didn't decreased since 1976 despite huge advancement in fuel efficiency.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CAFE_mpg_curve_from_NHTSA...
MPG from passenger car didn't decreased since 1976 despite huge advancement in fuel efficiency.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CAFE_mpg_curve_from_NHTSA...
There's a lot going on with US gasoline consumption:
1) land use decisions are pushing people further from workplaces
2) consumers are switching from the "car" class of vehicle to "light truck" which is negating fuel efficiency improvements [1]. There's a lot going on here, from people getting larger vehicles for perceived safety, to better comfort, to just having more money to spend on larger vehicles. Plus, all those people who think they need a truck despite using the bed once or twice per year.
3) Demand for gasoline is incredibly inelastic in response to price, with huge price spikes having almost no change in gallons of gasoline even as consumption in dollars spike [2]
[1] https://thenextweb.com/shift/2021/01/12/despite-ev-growth-ga...
[2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40893
1) land use decisions are pushing people further from workplaces
2) consumers are switching from the "car" class of vehicle to "light truck" which is negating fuel efficiency improvements [1]. There's a lot going on here, from people getting larger vehicles for perceived safety, to better comfort, to just having more money to spend on larger vehicles. Plus, all those people who think they need a truck despite using the bed once or twice per year.
3) Demand for gasoline is incredibly inelastic in response to price, with huge price spikes having almost no change in gallons of gasoline even as consumption in dollars spike [2]
[1] https://thenextweb.com/shift/2021/01/12/despite-ev-growth-ga...
[2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=40893
MPG is a measure of efficiency, so it makes sense that it increases. To support your argument, you would need to demonstrate a corresponding increase in vehicle miles traveled per car, so that total gallons of fuel burned (i.e. energy) is constant or increasing.
Obligatory mention of Jevons Paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Thank you, I'm one of today's lucky 10,000. https://xkcd.com/1053/
Most energy usage isn’t residential in nature.
It’s likely our industrial needs will continue to increase even with a smaller population
It’s likely our industrial needs will continue to increase even with a smaller population
Surely we can agree that growth in total energy usage must stop at some point? With continuous growth, you run into the limit of the earth's ability to radiate heat into space, or later on, the energy produced by the sun, in worryingly short timeframes.
We can agree to talk about it again once we’re exploiting the energy of the entire galaxy.
Without FTL, I'm not sure it makes sense to talk about a "we" doing galactic conquest, it'll be a bunch of societies who never talk to each other, or even separate species given the timescales involved.
A lot of energy is currently used for low-utility purposes (e.g. flying for meetings). There are also major opportunities for reduce-reuse-recycle that would not result in significant decreases in quality of life.
I'm all for aiming for high energy availability in the long run, but the idea that we can just keep increasing our usage monotonically (without a temporary reduction to get our shit sorted out) seems like the dangerous pipe dream to me.
Edit because I think maybe the tone sounded a bit short/unfriendly: I see a carbon tax as a necessary step in taking care of our issues, and my expectation is that this would reduce usage of fossil fuels quite significantly, temporarily. It seems likely that our energy budget would move more towards high-value-per-joule activities such as information technology and away from things like transportation. And I think this is a necessary step - people are currently quite careless about energy, especially about usage of fossil fuels, and I think if they become aware of its cost across a variety of activities they will adjust accordingly.
I'm all for aiming for high energy availability in the long run, but the idea that we can just keep increasing our usage monotonically (without a temporary reduction to get our shit sorted out) seems like the dangerous pipe dream to me.
Edit because I think maybe the tone sounded a bit short/unfriendly: I see a carbon tax as a necessary step in taking care of our issues, and my expectation is that this would reduce usage of fossil fuels quite significantly, temporarily. It seems likely that our energy budget would move more towards high-value-per-joule activities such as information technology and away from things like transportation. And I think this is a necessary step - people are currently quite careless about energy, especially about usage of fossil fuels, and I think if they become aware of its cost across a variety of activities they will adjust accordingly.
Basically, any scientifically/1st principles viable technology that might save us from doing extensive desperation geo-engineering deserves some investment, from a cost/benefit point of view. Otherwise, we might learn that we coined the name "Antropocene" too early.
There is no viable future scenario in which mankind's energy usage decreases. It's a pipe dream, and ultimately a dangerous one.
Agreed. There would need to be crushing totalitarian rule over everyone on Earth to prevent progress, and that wouldn't be stable long term. Otherwise, competition by competing powers will inevitably result in a Kardashev 2 civilization. Here's why:
Space solar power and fusion power are a couple of serious tech/economic inflection points. Once humanity's technology and our self-organization reach that level of capability, we are literally within striking distance of threatening any star system in our galaxy with huge destructive energies. We only need one of the two for this to be the case. Fusion is unnecessary at this point. If someone can establish large-scale industry on the Moon and the asteroids, solar power will be every bit as good as fusion in many regards. (At large enough scales, solar power is fusion power, basically.)
Modern geopolitics are dominated by the logistics of energy transport and production. It has been this way since before World War II. The logistics of fueling factories, ships, then tanks and airplanes has absolutely dominated strategic thinking since even before that time. The lengths to which the allies went to provide the fuel to run the invasion of Europe were absolute feats of engineering, planning, and intelligence/disinformation. So just think ahead a bit: what if, instead of having to fuel your military, you could instead beam power to outposts, which would use that power to synthesize fuel? The side that can do that would have huge logistical advantages, which would also be strategic advantages. (There's a compelling reason why submarines and aircraft carriers are nuclear powered.)
Going further, once we are at the level of space industry at scale, the Earth becomes just one location in a much larger context, whose available energy dwarfs the available energy on Earth by many orders of magnitude. At those levels of available energy, we could build things like Shkadov thrusters and Nicoll-Dyson beams. At that point, we'd have the hypothetical ability to move stars and build devices that could fry the biospheres off of planets in the bulk of our own galaxy.
There is no viable future scenario in which mankind's energy usage decreases. It's a pipe dream, and ultimately a dangerous one.
Agreed. There would need to be crushing totalitarian rule over everyone on Earth to prevent progress, and that wouldn't be stable long term. Otherwise, competition by competing powers will inevitably result in a Kardashev 2 civilization. Here's why:
Space solar power and fusion power are a couple of serious tech/economic inflection points. Once humanity's technology and our self-organization reach that level of capability, we are literally within striking distance of threatening any star system in our galaxy with huge destructive energies. We only need one of the two for this to be the case. Fusion is unnecessary at this point. If someone can establish large-scale industry on the Moon and the asteroids, solar power will be every bit as good as fusion in many regards. (At large enough scales, solar power is fusion power, basically.)
Modern geopolitics are dominated by the logistics of energy transport and production. It has been this way since before World War II. The logistics of fueling factories, ships, then tanks and airplanes has absolutely dominated strategic thinking since even before that time. The lengths to which the allies went to provide the fuel to run the invasion of Europe were absolute feats of engineering, planning, and intelligence/disinformation. So just think ahead a bit: what if, instead of having to fuel your military, you could instead beam power to outposts, which would use that power to synthesize fuel? The side that can do that would have huge logistical advantages, which would also be strategic advantages. (There's a compelling reason why submarines and aircraft carriers are nuclear powered.)
Going further, once we are at the level of space industry at scale, the Earth becomes just one location in a much larger context, whose available energy dwarfs the available energy on Earth by many orders of magnitude. At those levels of available energy, we could build things like Shkadov thrusters and Nicoll-Dyson beams. At that point, we'd have the hypothetical ability to move stars and build devices that could fry the biospheres off of planets in the bulk of our own galaxy.
> There is no viable future scenario in which mankind's energy usage decreases
sure there is. reduce the population by a factor of 10.
sure there is. reduce the population by a factor of 10.
Any true malthusian will of course voluntarily take the first step and remove themselves. Right?
Is transitioning slowly back to a hunter gatherer life style morally a bad idea? If so why?
How many billion people would need to die to make that sustainable?
This sounds like hyperbole but it’s the honest truth. Billions would die due to food shortages. Our modern farming system is incredible at its job of feeding 7 billion people.
...and yet 1/3rd of the food is thrown away/perish globally.
There is a lot of excessive waste / inefficiencies due to energy being -- relatively -- cheap.
If energy prices soar, many inefficiencies will get more attention. Like, if food becomes more expensive we would stop throwing away 1/3 of it. (And more houses would get proper insulation. And so on.)
There is a lot of excessive waste / inefficiencies due to energy being -- relatively -- cheap.
If energy prices soar, many inefficiencies will get more attention. Like, if food becomes more expensive we would stop throwing away 1/3 of it. (And more houses would get proper insulation. And so on.)
At least part of which is a necessary hedge against possible years with a bad harvest, though. A temporary shortage of toilet paper or even microchips is one thing, but you most certainly wouldn't want the same thing to happen with your food supply.
A pure hunter gatherer lifestyle is going to support a percent or less of current population. So you are basically going to have to prohibit the vast majority of the population from having children for a century or so. It also means abandoning all technology. Good luck persuading people to go along with that.
Depends if you think babies and moms dying is a morally bad thing or not.
Estimated 30-50% mortality rate for babies and 1% per birth mortality rate for moms (times say 12 kids). Lotta innocent babies gotta die to achieve your goals.
While this may sound tongue in cheek or a gotcha. I do think people underestimate how terrible, hard and brutal it was to live in those cultures as a human. We definitely create our share of travesties as modern humans (factory farms, anthropogenic mass extinction events, global climate change making the world uninhabitable). It remains to be seen if we can use technology to out pace some of these problems we've created, but I'm somewhat hopeful that we can, and find a path forward to live humanely and sustainably.
Estimated 30-50% mortality rate for babies and 1% per birth mortality rate for moms (times say 12 kids). Lotta innocent babies gotta die to achieve your goals.
While this may sound tongue in cheek or a gotcha. I do think people underestimate how terrible, hard and brutal it was to live in those cultures as a human. We definitely create our share of travesties as modern humans (factory farms, anthropogenic mass extinction events, global climate change making the world uninhabitable). It remains to be seen if we can use technology to out pace some of these problems we've created, but I'm somewhat hopeful that we can, and find a path forward to live humanely and sustainably.
People always think about medical conditions when thinking about archaic societies; but there is also an associated cost in not having a central ministry in charge of monitoring violence to women. Energy abundance shaped people’s moral values and society, we’ll also lose them when scaling down. In other example: Who cares about PETA during war, who protects the gays, etc.
So yes, scaling down is de facto against our moral values.
So yes, scaling down is de facto against our moral values.
You want to reduce the world population to a hundred million or so? How do you do that ethically?
How would you get everybody to agree to accept all the limitations and ills of their non technological lives without wanting to reinvent modern civilization?
How would you get everybody to agree to accept all the limitations and ills of their non technological lives without wanting to reinvent modern civilization?
Humans produce the vast majority of food we eat.
If we stopped that, and just consumed the food that nature spontaneously produces, it supports maybe 50M people. So first you'd have to kill 7000M people.
Even after that, I don't know how you'd stop people from reinventing agriculture.
So on balance, I recommend against this :)
If we stopped that, and just consumed the food that nature spontaneously produces, it supports maybe 50M people. So first you'd have to kill 7000M people.
Even after that, I don't know how you'd stop people from reinventing agriculture.
So on balance, I recommend against this :)
> Fill all the mines we’ve emptied over the years
...and why not do exactly that?
Keep in mind, a capture solvent is something that will stably hold onto the CO2 at STP. It doesn’t need special care or treatment; the CO2 just becomes incorporated into its molecular structure, and now that complexed molecule is “what it is.”
So it’s not like we’d be pumping the mines full of pressurized gas. We’d just be pouring a stable, non-reactive liquid or solid in there. Even if the mine had an earthquake, caught on fire, etc., that wouldn’t leak the CO2 back out into the world. It’s not nuclear waste. It’s rock dust.
...and why not do exactly that?
Keep in mind, a capture solvent is something that will stably hold onto the CO2 at STP. It doesn’t need special care or treatment; the CO2 just becomes incorporated into its molecular structure, and now that complexed molecule is “what it is.”
So it’s not like we’d be pumping the mines full of pressurized gas. We’d just be pouring a stable, non-reactive liquid or solid in there. Even if the mine had an earthquake, caught on fire, etc., that wouldn’t leak the CO2 back out into the world. It’s not nuclear waste. It’s rock dust.
Not sure if it's the same stuff exactly or if the cost includes reprocessing but there's an amine cycle that seems to be mostly closed that's used for CO2 removal on submarines. So it's just used to separate CO2 from the rest of the output. I think that's what this sentence is talking about:
> Notably, it is projected that this solvent can operate at a regeneration heat rate of 2.0 GJ per tonne CO2 for post-combustion capture
Smarter Every Day did a video on it and atmosphere management on a submarine more generally which is pretty neat. The CO2 scrubbing is around 20 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3Ud6mHdhlQ
> Notably, it is projected that this solvent can operate at a regeneration heat rate of 2.0 GJ per tonne CO2 for post-combustion capture
Smarter Every Day did a video on it and atmosphere management on a submarine more generally which is pretty neat. The CO2 scrubbing is around 20 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3Ud6mHdhlQ
I don't see what is the point to try to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. I don't even understand the fuss around global warming.Why is global warming a bad thing?
The plants and animals will adapt and evolve to handle the additional heat. There will be natural selection as usual. New variants of plants will evolve which can absorb more CO2. All species on earth will find a new equilibirum as they always had in the past.
The fear of global warming is only a human concern. The planet and the animals don't give a crap - Each individual specimen just tries the best they can to adapt to whatever the universe morphs into.
The problem with trying to manage global situations is that evolution is cleverer than you are.
To quote George Carlin:
“We’re so self-important. Everybody’s going to save something now. 'Save the trees, save the bees, save the whales, save those snails.' And the greatest arrogance of all: save the planet. Save the planet, we don’t even know how to take care of ourselves yet."
"The air and the water will recover, the earth will be renewed. And if it’s true that plastic is not degradable, well, the planet will simply incorporate plastic into a new paradigm: the earth plus plastic. The earth doesn’t share our prejudice toward plastic. Plastic came out of the earth. The earth probably sees plastic as just another one of its children. Could be the only reason the earth allowed us to be spawned from it in the first place. It wanted plastic for itself. Didn’t know how to make it. Needed us. Could be the answer to our age-old egocentric philosophical question, 'Why are we here?'"
Full quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/251836-we-re-so-self-import...
The plants and animals will adapt and evolve to handle the additional heat. There will be natural selection as usual. New variants of plants will evolve which can absorb more CO2. All species on earth will find a new equilibirum as they always had in the past.
The fear of global warming is only a human concern. The planet and the animals don't give a crap - Each individual specimen just tries the best they can to adapt to whatever the universe morphs into.
The problem with trying to manage global situations is that evolution is cleverer than you are.
To quote George Carlin:
“We’re so self-important. Everybody’s going to save something now. 'Save the trees, save the bees, save the whales, save those snails.' And the greatest arrogance of all: save the planet. Save the planet, we don’t even know how to take care of ourselves yet."
"The air and the water will recover, the earth will be renewed. And if it’s true that plastic is not degradable, well, the planet will simply incorporate plastic into a new paradigm: the earth plus plastic. The earth doesn’t share our prejudice toward plastic. Plastic came out of the earth. The earth probably sees plastic as just another one of its children. Could be the only reason the earth allowed us to be spawned from it in the first place. It wanted plastic for itself. Didn’t know how to make it. Needed us. Could be the answer to our age-old egocentric philosophical question, 'Why are we here?'"
Full quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/251836-we-re-so-self-import...
True. Some areas will become uninhabitable or flooded but others will become more habitable (like permafrost/tundra regions). Nature will indeed adapt though there will be reduced biodiversity for a while. Especially because this effect normally happens on a much longer timescale.
I think the problem is more that the regions that will become uninhabitable are currently mostly inhabited by people. And often pretty poor ones. It will cause millions to billions of people having to be relocated, causing many societal issues on its own, with a serious potential of societal collapse or war. Especially because the source and destination of these mass-migrations will often lay in different countries. See how refugees from wars in e.g. Africa or Syria are currently not really welcome anywhere, and multiply their numbers by 1000. That's the kind of disruption we're talking. Migrants will get more desperate while on the other side of the fence anti-migrant feelings will grow more and you have an explosive situation just waiting for a spark.
And war itself is a major destructor not just of humans but of the planet itself. Especially now that we have nuclear weapons.
I think the problem is more that the regions that will become uninhabitable are currently mostly inhabited by people. And often pretty poor ones. It will cause millions to billions of people having to be relocated, causing many societal issues on its own, with a serious potential of societal collapse or war. Especially because the source and destination of these mass-migrations will often lay in different countries. See how refugees from wars in e.g. Africa or Syria are currently not really welcome anywhere, and multiply their numbers by 1000. That's the kind of disruption we're talking. Migrants will get more desperate while on the other side of the fence anti-migrant feelings will grow more and you have an explosive situation just waiting for a spark.
And war itself is a major destructor not just of humans but of the planet itself. Especially now that we have nuclear weapons.
Humans will use nuclear weapons eventually. They exist, so they will be used eventually. That cannot be stopped. "Monkey see, monkey do" principle. And the people in power seem to keep getting dumber so we are probably not far off.
The climate will change slowly over centuries. People in certain countries won't wake up one morning in 2050 to unihabitable temps and 5 meters of water. It will happen gradually. Because of this, climate migration cannot be compared to wartime migration.
But the key thing to note is that billions of people will move over the next century or two for reasons unrelated to climate. The global population distribution looked different one hundred years ago and it will look different one hundred years hence.
But the key thing to note is that billions of people will move over the next century or two for reasons unrelated to climate. The global population distribution looked different one hundred years ago and it will look different one hundred years hence.
There are really two separate questions that we have to consider when talking about the climate:
1) "Do we as a species need to be able to control the composition of the atmosphere?", and
2) "What is the optimal composition of the atmosphere?".
The answer to question #1 is pretty clearly "yes". We're well on our way to becoming a Kardashev type I civilization. At that planetary scale, humanity's inputs to various global systems will just swamp the natural feedbacks that kept things roughly stable before people, so if we don't exert some kind of stabilizing control ourselves, the system will break down. Are we on the verge of a breakdown right now? Maybe. Maybe not. It's complicated. But at some point, if humanity keeps growing, we will reach a point where active management of planetary systems becomes a necessity --- we're going to have to learn to terraform the Earth.
And as for question #2? Maybe the optimal atmosphere has more carbon than it did in the pleistocene. Finding the right level of carbon in the atmosphere is a task that will depend on fancy modeling and careful experimentation. But it's hard to worry about question #2 when we haven't figured out #1; why worry about exactly the right position for a knob on a complex machine when the machine's knob is currently broken off?
1) "Do we as a species need to be able to control the composition of the atmosphere?", and
2) "What is the optimal composition of the atmosphere?".
The answer to question #1 is pretty clearly "yes". We're well on our way to becoming a Kardashev type I civilization. At that planetary scale, humanity's inputs to various global systems will just swamp the natural feedbacks that kept things roughly stable before people, so if we don't exert some kind of stabilizing control ourselves, the system will break down. Are we on the verge of a breakdown right now? Maybe. Maybe not. It's complicated. But at some point, if humanity keeps growing, we will reach a point where active management of planetary systems becomes a necessity --- we're going to have to learn to terraform the Earth.
And as for question #2? Maybe the optimal atmosphere has more carbon than it did in the pleistocene. Finding the right level of carbon in the atmosphere is a task that will depend on fancy modeling and careful experimentation. But it's hard to worry about question #2 when we haven't figured out #1; why worry about exactly the right position for a knob on a complex machine when the machine's knob is currently broken off?
Question 2 cannot be answered without tying into history and politics..
Climate change trends will likely be negative for US food production and citied... but excellent to Russian food production and affect barely any Russian infrastructure.
Climate change is objectively good for Russia; devastating for Bangladesh, probably very bad for US and Europe..
So question 2 is hard for that reason too.
Climate change trends will likely be negative for US food production and citied... but excellent to Russian food production and affect barely any Russian infrastructure.
Climate change is objectively good for Russia; devastating for Bangladesh, probably very bad for US and Europe..
So question 2 is hard for that reason too.
I'm not saying it will come to it, but the worst case for global warming is not some jungle planet, it is earth turning into a planet like venus, which would probably sterilize earth if it happens faster than evolutionary timescales that are needed for nature to adapt as you suggest.
The argument about us not being able to save ourselves is really a falacy, akin to whataboutism. It's the same as saying we shouldn't fly to the moon as long as there is famine on earth, or not try to cure cancer as long as we don't have a cure for the common cold.
The argument about us not being able to save ourselves is really a falacy, akin to whataboutism. It's the same as saying we shouldn't fly to the moon as long as there is famine on earth, or not try to cure cancer as long as we don't have a cure for the common cold.
"The plants and animals will adapt and evolve to handle the additional heat"
Evolution takes thousands of years. In that time species will go extinct, so there is no chance for them to evolve.
For a simple demonstration of how fast we are changing the climate compared to other periods when ecosystems may have been able to adapt, see https://xkcd.com/1732/
Evolution takes thousands of years. In that time species will go extinct, so there is no chance for them to evolve.
For a simple demonstration of how fast we are changing the climate compared to other periods when ecosystems may have been able to adapt, see https://xkcd.com/1732/
>> Evolution takes thousands of years
Not true. Natural selection can work its magic in a single generation.
For example, given any normal population, choose any trait and remove all individuals which have this trait from the population. The next generation will not have this trait. Specimens with the trait will become extremely rare depending on how accurate the selection process was.
It can be quite radical. For example, if a law was introduced (with death penalty) which prevented all people of normal height and above from having children. In just one generation, all humans would become much shorter.
Not true. Natural selection can work its magic in a single generation.
For example, given any normal population, choose any trait and remove all individuals which have this trait from the population. The next generation will not have this trait. Specimens with the trait will become extremely rare depending on how accurate the selection process was.
It can be quite radical. For example, if a law was introduced (with death penalty) which prevented all people of normal height and above from having children. In just one generation, all humans would become much shorter.
Now try this with food. In one generation get these animals to stop needing to eat.
Yeah, because there exist short humans and so their genes would indeed be passed on. Now check that for all organisms relevant to our food chain (assuming we even know which ones those are, and assuming we only care for ourselves and the rest can go extinct) there is a sufficient number of individuals in the relevant places able to cope with droughts, heat waves, flooding, storms, and other extreme weather introduced in the new climate.
It doesn't magically just solve itself, even if that's the easiest thing to tell yourself and look for confirmation bias for.
It doesn't magically just solve itself, even if that's the easiest thing to tell yourself and look for confirmation bias for.
That's not natural selection, that's artificial selection.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_breeding
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selective_breeding
Your counter-argument is about semantics. Logically, it only reinforces my argument. Unless you're suggesting that global warming is natural and not caused by humans...
If you agree that 'artificial selection' can work quickly (as scientific evidence suggests) and you believe that humans are the main driver of climate change (as is the consensus among climate scientists). Then my proposition that evolution can work very fast in the context of global warming (being an 'artificial', human-driven process) is a logical conclusion.
QED.
If you agree that 'artificial selection' can work quickly (as scientific evidence suggests) and you believe that humans are the main driver of climate change (as is the consensus among climate scientists). Then my proposition that evolution can work very fast in the context of global warming (being an 'artificial', human-driven process) is a logical conclusion.
QED.
Wow what a watertight argument.
The key is the word "can" - which you interpret to mean "extremely likely", and I interpret to mean "extremely unlikely".
Other than that, we agree.
The key is the word "can" - which you interpret to mean "extremely likely", and I interpret to mean "extremely unlikely".
Other than that, we agree.
At a global scale, even things that are extremely unlikely tend to occur. Because there is so much going on in parallel, it's like the lottery; it's extremely unlikely to win the lottery but play it 1 million times a minute and it becomes very likely.
ScienceMag summarizes this research in an article named New generation of carbon dioxide traps could make carbon capture practical:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/new-generation-carbo...
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/new-generation-carbo...
This [0] AMA from the research group answers most of the questions I am seeing here in the thread.
"Technologies range from aqueous amines - the water-rich solvents that run through modern, commercially available capture units - to energy-efficient membranes that filter CO2 from flue gas emitted by power plants. Our newest solvent, EEMPA, can accomplish the task for as little as $47.10 per metric ton - bringing post-combustion capture within reach of 45Q tax incentives."
[0] reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/mdouzu/askscience_ama_series_hi_reddit_we_are_scientists/
"Technologies range from aqueous amines - the water-rich solvents that run through modern, commercially available capture units - to energy-efficient membranes that filter CO2 from flue gas emitted by power plants. Our newest solvent, EEMPA, can accomplish the task for as little as $47.10 per metric ton - bringing post-combustion capture within reach of 45Q tax incentives."
[0] reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/mdouzu/askscience_ama_series_hi_reddit_we_are_scientists/
$47.10 per ton smells like someone has calculated the cost of the reagents and cited that as the price...
Any estimate of this process cost would never be to 3 Sig fig.
Any estimate of this process cost would never be to 3 Sig fig.
I don't know why $47.10 is any less credible than $47, but here's more detail on what the estimate represents from TFAMA:
"For the $47.10/metric ton carbon capture cost, 48% comes from CAPEX while the remaining is OPEX. The equipment life of a carbon capture unit would be similar to that of a power plant, about 20-30 years. The $47.10/metric ton cost is just for carbon capture, and does not include transportation and sequestration costs."
"For the $47.10/metric ton carbon capture cost, 48% comes from CAPEX while the remaining is OPEX. The equipment life of a carbon capture unit would be similar to that of a power plant, about 20-30 years. The $47.10/metric ton cost is just for carbon capture, and does not include transportation and sequestration costs."
It is still suspicious to use so exact numbers for a technology that has not yet been tested out at scale at all.
In my experience, the obsession with correct significant figures is an american high school thing. Why should you deliberately have to choose a number that is not your best guess? Ideally you should include confidence bounds, but if you don't, it shouldn't imply that you are confident to that level.
Because it gives an idea of what range is expected for the actual price. If someone gets an estimate of "about fifty bucks" versus "about $51.04", their reaction to seeing a final price of say $62.17 would be different. The first one implies that it's a rough estimate, while the second one doesn't.
"About" is doing a lot of work, too, no?
If someone said "about fifty bucks" and it turns out to be $62.17, I'd immediately understand them to be scamming me.
Really depends on what the context is. Maybe for a taxi ride when negotiating a price ahead of time, but pointing at an object, asking for its price, getting an estimate that's off, then getting the actual price before the transaction is completed doesn't feel like a scam.
Please price estimates for car repairs in dollars and cents and state it's only an estimate all the time.. with variations possible depending on what's discovered that might have been missed it that particular context.
Yep. The weird thing is that their sigfig rules of thumb aren't particularly accurate and after any non-trivial operations (or more than a few operations) just give wrong results.
Tracking precision through calculations requires interval arithmetic, which is a pretty big PITA and not frequently used.
I think the sig figs cult comes out of mistaking a simplified lesson on precision for a useful practice.
Tracking precision through calculations requires interval arithmetic, which is a pretty big PITA and not frequently used.
I think the sig figs cult comes out of mistaking a simplified lesson on precision for a useful practice.
Not sure exactly what you mean. It is well known that you should keep additional digits throughout the calculation and then drop non-significant ones for final results.
The number of digits out is only a simple function of the digits in if you're doing fairly trivial calculations.
Checkout https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interval_arithmetic for what it takes to monitor precision through complex calculations (in particular, see the bits about using the taylor expansions of non-trivial functions).
Checkout https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interval_arithmetic for what it takes to monitor precision through complex calculations (in particular, see the bits about using the taylor expansions of non-trivial functions).
It hints that someone doesn’t understand these confidence values at all.
Why $47.10 and not $47.1032471?
Why $47.10 and not $47.1032471?
That's definitely where I learned that it was expected.
I look at it as one of many possible conventions for communicating precision. For what it is, it works well. But it's not universal, and people who do and don't use it should both keep in mind that the other group exists.
I look at it as one of many possible conventions for communicating precision. For what it is, it works well. But it's not universal, and people who do and don't use it should both keep in mind that the other group exists.
When I was getting my engineering degree too many significant figures would earn you -2 pts.
Measure with a micrometer.
Mark with a chalk.
Cut with an axe.
(Apparent practice at a workshop I used to frequent.)
Mark with a chalk.
Cut with an axe.
(Apparent practice at a workshop I used to frequent.)
Old crusty semi-retired engineer I knew said when he was young he liked designing things to close tolerances. But once he was old he found more pleasure in designing things that worked with really shitty tolerances.
-I had a colleague once, fresh out of mechanical engineering at the local univerity college, who as his first project did a locking pawl for a winch drum.
Tolerance? H7.
The fitters threw a fit trying to make that happen.
Tolerance? H7.
The fitters threw a fit trying to make that happen.
Clearly he wasn't working in any sort of mechanical capacity while getting that community college degree.
> I don't know why $47.10 is any less credible than $47
It shows a lack of understanding of either basic science or napkin maths.
For either reality, science or invention, it matters.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Significant_figures
It shows a lack of understanding of either basic science or napkin maths.
For either reality, science or invention, it matters.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Significant_figures
[deleted]
Sig figs are just a crude method to in-band signal some bounds on your estimates. They don't seem super relevant here when communicating an order of magnitude improvement.
I am pretty sure the $0.10 per tree of the Eden reforest project would be far cheaper than $47.10 per ton, to say the least.
That would be 471 trees for $47.10.
That would be 471 trees for $47.10.
That price is per tree planted and there's not guarantee the tree is going to grow. It's great to plant trees, but even if we could reforest the entire Earth on the good places we'll need other technologies to capture carbon.
Does the 0.10$ include land acquisition for the forest? If not, the cost could be significantly higher.
They work with the native communities (that is why around 10% of trees planted are designed as a food source) which allows that 10 cents to cover everything, not just the planting of the trees.
Reforestation only sequesters carbon if the land remains forest forever. If it’s cleared again in the future then that carbon goes right back into the atmosphere.
Doesn't it depend on what is done with all the wood that was chopped down? If used say for construction, that carbon is staying out of the atmosphere.
Or do mature trees not make up the majority of the carbon that is stored in forests?
Or do mature trees not make up the majority of the carbon that is stored in forests?
Now let's start charging $50 a ton to release CO2
The EU is charging ~ $47 (USD) per ton right now.
Huh, that's a convenient and familiar looking price.
Are they spending the money on carbon capture?
how much co2 is released each year ? -> "The world emits about 43 billion tons of CO2 a year (2019)"
This article -> 50$ per ton of capture.
product = $2,15 trillion to capture the whole year emissions.
US GDP 2020 -> $20.93 trillion
Only a few plants and ~10% of GDP from a single country could solve it.
Does this mean that global warming is almost a non-issue, but merely just a game of chicken to see who will foot the bill ?
This article -> 50$ per ton of capture.
product = $2,15 trillion to capture the whole year emissions.
US GDP 2020 -> $20.93 trillion
Only a few plants and ~10% of GDP from a single country could solve it.
Does this mean that global warming is almost a non-issue, but merely just a game of chicken to see who will foot the bill ?
> merely just a game of chicken to see who will foot the bill ?
This was always the real problem.
This was always the real problem.
Well, as another person said, it only works with high concentrations. You'd have to have this country of choice go and install the devices on all exhausts everywhere. There's still a percentage getting past the exhaust, there will still be emissions from fertilizer and the like, methane/nox/refrigerants are still a thing, and so we'd reduce the amount of emissions by, say, 75%. That would be amazing and hugely helpful, but not the solution. In the end we'll need something around 100% (bit more due to overshooting, more likely than not).
Ok, I hadn't understood, that this new solution was only applicable only to the CO2 produced by combustion for which we can easily install an exhaust filter.
You quote this fraction at 75% : With some efforts we can get 75% reduction at 50$ per ton.
What is the cost per ton to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere for the remaining 25%, and for the CO2 we already have emitted in the past ?
You quote this fraction at 75% : With some efforts we can get 75% reduction at 50$ per ton.
What is the cost per ton to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere for the remaining 25%, and for the CO2 we already have emitted in the past ?
> ~10% of GDP from a single country
The 'single' nation you mentioned has many times the GDP of others. 2.15 trillion is most (over 70%) of the fifth largest economy.
The 'single' nation you mentioned has many times the GDP of others. 2.15 trillion is most (over 70%) of the fifth largest economy.
Is there a way this could be used in a home-setting by private individuals or too dangerous/costly?
You could even use the waste heat from a power plant to drive the co2 back out...
If we do this we also need to build Snowpiercer
Just plant trees, cut them and bury in the oceans. Nature already have all the necessary mechanisms to capture carbon. On the plus side it'll serve as an energy reserve for future civilizations should ours collapse.
We have a lot of spare space for mangroves. That will store most of the carbon in the soil for up to 1,000 years.
I can’t imagine an industrial approach that won’t fail on scale, lifecycle or both. These are not strategies to solve the problem these are strategies to get rich.
The only kind of strategy that seems capable of delivering on both scale and lifecycle is one where we enhance the environment to capture the CO2 for us and store it in the organic food chain simply by scaling it up to hold the extra mass.
Most likely we would have to enhance plains and deserts to become forests. Use regenerative agricultural practices and eat less meat. The big opportunity is in the oceans. There are wast “sea deserts” that could be transformed into more biological active habitats by using our industrial base to build some kind of structure to protect small life. Perhaps also disperse nutrients to accelerate biological processes.
The only kind of strategy that seems capable of delivering on both scale and lifecycle is one where we enhance the environment to capture the CO2 for us and store it in the organic food chain simply by scaling it up to hold the extra mass.
Most likely we would have to enhance plains and deserts to become forests. Use regenerative agricultural practices and eat less meat. The big opportunity is in the oceans. There are wast “sea deserts” that could be transformed into more biological active habitats by using our industrial base to build some kind of structure to protect small life. Perhaps also disperse nutrients to accelerate biological processes.
Wow the downvotes.. was this really that controversial? Are we still trying to solve the problem with the same mindset we created it?
This is not an argument against the solution proposed:
> I can’t imagine an industrial approach that won’t fail on scale, lifecycle or both. These are not strategies to solve the problem these are strategies to get rich.
Neither this this:
> Are we still trying to solve the problem with the same mindset we created it?
I don't know if this solution is at all useful, but climate change is massive threat to a large percentage of humanity and discarding solutions because you don't like the "mindset" isn't going to get it done.
> I can’t imagine an industrial approach that won’t fail on scale, lifecycle or both. These are not strategies to solve the problem these are strategies to get rich.
Neither this this:
> Are we still trying to solve the problem with the same mindset we created it?
I don't know if this solution is at all useful, but climate change is massive threat to a large percentage of humanity and discarding solutions because you don't like the "mindset" isn't going to get it done.
> I don't know if this solution is at all useful, but climate change is massive threat to a large percentage of humanity and discarding solutions because you don't like the "mindset" isn't going to get it done.
Climate change is not the only massive threat to a large percentage of humanity, and the mindset that "building large-scale processes with monetary incentives and no after-thoughts needed is good" is what's causing all of them.
Climate change is not the only massive threat to a large percentage of humanity, and the mindset that "building large-scale processes with monetary incentives and no after-thoughts needed is good" is what's causing all of them.
Fulltext mirror: https://www.gwern.net/docs/science/2020-zheng.pdf
For comparison I was looking back at the "Project Vesta – Mitigating climate change with green sand beaches" thing.
There were estimates of $10-$25 a ton for olivine rock https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20415138
There were estimates of $10-$25 a ton for olivine rock https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20415138
I don't know why the Democrats, in particular, don't turn this into political hay: it's literally the perfect counter to the coal issue.
1. Olivine is plentiful, everywhere, including as the tailings from huge defunct coal mines;
2. All of the mining & transportation infrastructure is already in mining country;
3. Mining country is desperate for solid, dependable blue collar work; and,
4. Mining country already has expertise in ... mining.
Instead of rolling in and telling mine workers that "their livelihood is destroying the world, please go find something else to do", the Fed could roll in and say: "now it's your turn to ~save the world~; go dig!"
1. Olivine is plentiful, everywhere, including as the tailings from huge defunct coal mines;
2. All of the mining & transportation infrastructure is already in mining country;
3. Mining country is desperate for solid, dependable blue collar work; and,
4. Mining country already has expertise in ... mining.
Instead of rolling in and telling mine workers that "their livelihood is destroying the world, please go find something else to do", the Fed could roll in and say: "now it's your turn to ~save the world~; go dig!"
Just a side note, as I don’t know a thing about olivine, but wouldn’t they be able to pull the material from the waste piles instead of mining new material? I remember this popping up in a discussion about thorium (super abundant in coal mining waste) and that was one of the points brought up
Yep; straight from the tailings. It's all the transport & digging parts of mining, without any of the dangerous "going into a hole" parts of mining. Obviously, this is just a form of strip-mining so there's definite downsides.
1. The tech isn't ready to deploy.
2. There are hardly any Democrat leaders left who care about or can talk to blue collar workers.
2. There are hardly any Democrat leaders left who care about or can talk to blue collar workers.
> 2. There are hardly any Democrat leaders left who care about or can talk to blue collar workers.
The problem is voters, not workers. US voters are significantly older and to the right of employees - either past or near retirement. Improving employment certainly does work on the margins, but in absolute terms there's a lot of people who don't care and just want to be entertained.
Problem number 3 though is the US doesn't emit that much carbon. To be part of a worldwide solution we need to sell carbon capture tech to China and India.
The problem is voters, not workers. US voters are significantly older and to the right of employees - either past or near retirement. Improving employment certainly does work on the margins, but in absolute terms there's a lot of people who don't care and just want to be entertained.
Problem number 3 though is the US doesn't emit that much carbon. To be part of a worldwide solution we need to sell carbon capture tech to China and India.
> The tech isn't ready to deploy
What makes you say this? All they have to do is grind up olivine and dump it in parts of the ocean with high vorticity like unused shores.
What makes you say this? All they have to do is grind up olivine and dump it in parts of the ocean with high vorticity like unused shores.
I think part of this is because there is a group of people that doesn’t want there to be an easy technical solution to climate change. They would rather use the massive threat of climate change as the catalyst for social, economic, and behavioral change. They view climate change mitigation tech that does not require changes in behavior much as religious conservatives viewed birth control and condoms - a technical hack to get around immoral behavior.
It's not enough to change people's beliefs about climate change and political choices.
>> Olivine is plentiful, everywhere,
That means olivine will be mined everywhere. not necessarily in coal country.
>> Olivine is plentiful, everywhere,
That means olivine will be mined everywhere. not necessarily in coal country.
Computers are plentiful everywhere, yet more bits are mined in SV than anywhere else. Maybe the fact that bit mining expertise is concentrated there is useful to produce more zeroes and ones. I suppose the same might be true of olivine.
> yet more bits are mined in SV than anywhere else
Are they?
Are they?
Yeah, this is almost certainly not the case any way you want to frame the question and define a 'bit being mined'.
You'd really have to twist some strange language to attribute distributed global computation to SV because they may own or have invented certain technologies to even begin to argue that.
Just think of how expensive SV is in general. It doesn't make sense.
You'd really have to twist some strange language to attribute distributed global computation to SV because they may own or have invented certain technologies to even begin to argue that.
Just think of how expensive SV is in general. It doesn't make sense.
Coal country has a comparative advantage due to the already existing infrastructure and expertise that others would need to acquire from scratch.
Neither of these mechanisms are likely to be completely price inelastic, so in a perfect world we would pursue both of them to a degree relative to their price.
I'm sure in 20 years we'll learn this causes cancer. And someone will be posting an article on how to remove this from the water supply.
At ~$50/Tonne, that is more than than current carbon prices, as far as I can tell.
The cheapest way is to not produce it in the first place.
Deepening topsoil is my favourite way of sequestering carbon.
The cheapest way is to not produce it in the first place.
Deepening topsoil is my favourite way of sequestering carbon.
In addition to price, I would like to see, for any CO2 capture tech, the estimated CO2 emission amount with scope 3 accounting (i.e., including the CO2 emitted in the entire supply chain, amortized by the estimated non-infinite lifetime).
Every time something like this comes up I think exactly the same thing: Did everyone flunk first year Physics?
Someone please explain how nobody seems to care about the fact that you cannot violate conservation of energy.
How much energy will it take to reduce atmospheric CO2 by 100 ppm?
Never mind time and resources. Let's just talk energy.
How much?
The simple answer is: More than the energy that went into creating the problem in the first place.
How much more?
A lot more. Because these processes are not efficient at all when looked into in their entirety.
A number?
OK. How did we get the CO2? By burning oil. What did it take to create this oil. Billions of years of plants and biological matter being crushed and cooked by...solar energy. Massive amounts of energy falling on this planet. The end result being a highly concentrated source of energy. When we burn a gallon of oil we are releasing the culmination of what took unimaginable time and energy to produce.
You are not going to make an impact without expending an equally massive amount of energy and resources.
Let's say I burn a pile of lumber inside a large sealed warehouse. Say, 100K square feet (about 10K square meters) and very high. Large volume. Smoke, particles, gases disperse throughout the volume.
You are tasked with cleaning it.
You can't open windows, etc. That would be cheating. There is not "and then a miracle occurs" scenario.
It would take an immense amount of energy and resources (relative to what it took to create the mess) to go find every particle and clean-up the noxious gases in that warehouse.
If we can't clean a warehouse, what makes anyone think we can magically deal with a planetary-scale problem?
We already know this. There are research papers that explain just how it is that even the idea of converting the entire planet to renewable energy sources is an exercise in futility.
My point is: If we could just stop lying to ourselves maybe we can devote brain power towards dealing with the reality of the problem rather than the fantasies of non-existing solutions.
I am not saying "let's be filthy and do nothing". I am simply saying we are not facing reality, which means we are wasting valuable time and resources "solving" a problem we cannot possibly solve without risking killing everything on this planet.
All you need in order to understand this is the atmospheric CO2 data from ice core samples going back 800,000 years. We know that if humanity was not around it would take about 50K years for a 100 ppm drop in CO2. In other words, with the ultimate "solution" --if we left this planet-- it would take 50K years. What makes people actually believe we can solve the problem in a generation or two if we stick around? That's not hubris, that's a delusion. Sorry.
If anyone disagrees. Great. I would like to learn how I am wrong. Kindly explain how you are going to achieve a rate of change between 500 and 1,000 times greater than what could be achieved if humanity --and all of our technology-- got erased from this planet. That's the challenge. No magical technology can do better than the absence of humanity and all of our toys. That should be self evident. And yet, without us around, the timeline is in the 50K year range.
Take your time, show how this 1000x improvement in rate-of-change will happen without at least 1000x the energy deployed at a planetary scale by natural processes.
Someone please explain how nobody seems to care about the fact that you cannot violate conservation of energy.
How much energy will it take to reduce atmospheric CO2 by 100 ppm?
Never mind time and resources. Let's just talk energy.
How much?
The simple answer is: More than the energy that went into creating the problem in the first place.
How much more?
A lot more. Because these processes are not efficient at all when looked into in their entirety.
A number?
OK. How did we get the CO2? By burning oil. What did it take to create this oil. Billions of years of plants and biological matter being crushed and cooked by...solar energy. Massive amounts of energy falling on this planet. The end result being a highly concentrated source of energy. When we burn a gallon of oil we are releasing the culmination of what took unimaginable time and energy to produce.
You are not going to make an impact without expending an equally massive amount of energy and resources.
Let's say I burn a pile of lumber inside a large sealed warehouse. Say, 100K square feet (about 10K square meters) and very high. Large volume. Smoke, particles, gases disperse throughout the volume.
You are tasked with cleaning it.
You can't open windows, etc. That would be cheating. There is not "and then a miracle occurs" scenario.
It would take an immense amount of energy and resources (relative to what it took to create the mess) to go find every particle and clean-up the noxious gases in that warehouse.
If we can't clean a warehouse, what makes anyone think we can magically deal with a planetary-scale problem?
We already know this. There are research papers that explain just how it is that even the idea of converting the entire planet to renewable energy sources is an exercise in futility.
My point is: If we could just stop lying to ourselves maybe we can devote brain power towards dealing with the reality of the problem rather than the fantasies of non-existing solutions.
I am not saying "let's be filthy and do nothing". I am simply saying we are not facing reality, which means we are wasting valuable time and resources "solving" a problem we cannot possibly solve without risking killing everything on this planet.
All you need in order to understand this is the atmospheric CO2 data from ice core samples going back 800,000 years. We know that if humanity was not around it would take about 50K years for a 100 ppm drop in CO2. In other words, with the ultimate "solution" --if we left this planet-- it would take 50K years. What makes people actually believe we can solve the problem in a generation or two if we stick around? That's not hubris, that's a delusion. Sorry.
If anyone disagrees. Great. I would like to learn how I am wrong. Kindly explain how you are going to achieve a rate of change between 500 and 1,000 times greater than what could be achieved if humanity --and all of our technology-- got erased from this planet. That's the challenge. No magical technology can do better than the absence of humanity and all of our toys. That should be self evident. And yet, without us around, the timeline is in the 50K year range.
Take your time, show how this 1000x improvement in rate-of-change will happen without at least 1000x the energy deployed at a planetary scale by natural processes.
What's the energy consumption to make this moderately complex organic compound? If it takes more energy (largely generated from fossil fuels - and generating CO2 itself) than it removes... it's not going to be viable. You must have >1:1 otherwise you are better off doing nothing at all.
The compound is a solvent, you reuse it repeatedly, so there is no need for it to be >1:1.
I really doubt that any industrial-chemical process will have a net better environmental or economic impact than, say, re-foresting desert areas.
Useful conversion: At $47/ton, it costs $0.47/gallon of gasoline burnt to capture the CO2 the gasoline would release.
This fact that you divide by 100 to go from ton of CO2 to gallon of gasoline equivalent is a useful coincidence.
It also means that a dollar per gallon gasoline tax for carbon capture would be enough to make cars carbon negative (cars have a lot of embodied carbon; the factor of two covers that).
This fact that you divide by 100 to go from ton of CO2 to gallon of gasoline equivalent is a useful coincidence.
It also means that a dollar per gallon gasoline tax for carbon capture would be enough to make cars carbon negative (cars have a lot of embodied carbon; the factor of two covers that).
If you could attach that as a tax successfully to the cost of gas, you might have a beneficial side effect of reducing vehicle driving.