Alzheimer’s enigma: Why is incidence falling 16% a decade in richest countries?(english.elpais.com)
english.elpais.com
Alzheimer’s enigma: Why is incidence falling 16% a decade in richest countries?
https://english.elpais.com/usa/2021-07-01/the-alzheimers-enigma-why-is-the-incidence-falling-at-16-a-decade-in-the-worlds-richest-countries.html
108 comments
“Falling 16% per decade since 1988” I wonder why! Maybe tied to the phase out of leaded gasoline around the same time??
Particulate pollution has also improved since then. Makes you wonder what other ailments will mysteriously become much less prevalent when we finally get rid of ICE cars, and perhaps reduce car traffic in general.
Yeah a lot of particles come from the road/tyres, so if we want to be rid of all of them I guess switching to EVs isn't really enough (but it's a damn good start).
Long term(as in multiple decades) we might want to switch maglev railways, as there is no friction to stir particles in the air from that. That would also remove the need for batteries whose production is probably harmful to some degree.
Infrastructure costs are gonna be fun though...
Long term(as in multiple decades) we might want to switch maglev railways, as there is no friction to stir particles in the air from that. That would also remove the need for batteries whose production is probably harmful to some degree.
Infrastructure costs are gonna be fun though...
> I guess switching to EVs isn't really enough
For completeness EV apply regenerative braking for a large proportion of use, which is for all practical purposes particle free. Obviously tire wear still applies but brake pad wear is largely reduced
So with EV you are getting rid of ICE particulates, CO2, CO, and NO2 (particularly on Diesel engines) and also drastically reducing brake particulate from brake pad wear.
And to be fair my intuition is that the health impacts of CO and NO2 is likely far more harmful then tire and brake pad particulates.
Having said all of that we would still be better off just having everyone using electric buses or trains within Metro areas at least.
For completeness EV apply regenerative braking for a large proportion of use, which is for all practical purposes particle free. Obviously tire wear still applies but brake pad wear is largely reduced
So with EV you are getting rid of ICE particulates, CO2, CO, and NO2 (particularly on Diesel engines) and also drastically reducing brake particulate from brake pad wear.
And to be fair my intuition is that the health impacts of CO and NO2 is likely far more harmful then tire and brake pad particulates.
Having said all of that we would still be better off just having everyone using electric buses or trains within Metro areas at least.
My understanding is that most particulate emission isn’t from brake pads, but from asphalt on the road. Regen braking should only have a de minims impact.
>>"Yeah a lot of particles come from the road/tyres,"
It seems some people is working on that too:
"The Tyre Collective designed a simple device that collects microplastics as they fly off a car tire. As the group of designers explains it, their device helps on the path toward zero emissions by using electrostatic and airflow around the tire to capture the microplastics and other small particles that are shed over the lifetime of a tire."
https://www.ecowatch.com/microplastics-car-tires-james-dyson...
It seems some people is working on that too:
"The Tyre Collective designed a simple device that collects microplastics as they fly off a car tire. As the group of designers explains it, their device helps on the path toward zero emissions by using electrostatic and airflow around the tire to capture the microplastics and other small particles that are shed over the lifetime of a tire."
https://www.ecowatch.com/microplastics-car-tires-james-dyson...
> The Tyre Collective designed a simple device that collects microplastics as they fly off a car tire
That's hilarious.
I'd be willing to place a bet there are 101 reasons why that sort of contraption will never be seen on the roads.
Its one of those things that looks great on a designer's CAD, and perhaps "works" in a carefully controlled lab simulation. Regrettably its quite obvious its not going to work once you throw good old real life at it.
That's hilarious.
I'd be willing to place a bet there are 101 reasons why that sort of contraption will never be seen on the roads.
Its one of those things that looks great on a designer's CAD, and perhaps "works" in a carefully controlled lab simulation. Regrettably its quite obvious its not going to work once you throw good old real life at it.
Even if it does, it's only the second of a very, very long list of problems caused by the car default. In an old, run-down, rat- and cockroach-infested, water-damaged ramshackle house you can't just flush the toilet and then go, "There! Sparkling clean!"
In my experience, when you have a large systematic problem, the economic/viable/working/good solution is rarely to zoom in on a particular (pun not intended) problem and solve that, hoping it'll be the last of the problems caused by the broken system.
If the system is broken, the only economically sensible way to fix the problems is to change the system. Fundamentally.
(In this case, the "broken system" refers to the idea that when we go to work, we have to bring two resting chairs, a couch, and a large coffer. And all of society should be shaped around this daily furniture transportation. Tire dirt is just the second of a very long list of problems caused by this idea.)
If the system is broken, the only economically sensible way to fix the problems is to change the system. Fundamentally.
(In this case, the "broken system" refers to the idea that when we go to work, we have to bring two resting chairs, a couch, and a large coffer. And all of society should be shaped around this daily furniture transportation. Tire dirt is just the second of a very long list of problems caused by this idea.)
> when we go to work
This is the problem for most of us right here.
This is the problem for most of us right here.
>Long term(as in multiple decades) we might want to switch maglev railways, as there is no friction to stir particles in the air from that.
Is there a major environmental/health problem with particulate from regular steel-on-steel railways? I would guess the iron particles don't travel very far due to their density and will mostly turn to harmless iron oxide.
Is there a major environmental/health problem with particulate from regular steel-on-steel railways? I would guess the iron particles don't travel very far due to their density and will mostly turn to harmless iron oxide.
> Is there a major environmental/health problem with particulate from regular steel-on-steel railways?
Yes, as only extremely modern passenger trains have regenerative or resistive electrical brakes and even they need to do the last few bits of the braking process with the old friction brakes since electrical braking doesn't need at low speed.
Old trains, especially freight, still runs entirely on friction brakes - either metal or the new "silent brakes" that are a plastics composite.
Additionally, you have environmental concerns from oil and lube, which is why you should never fucking ever re-use torn out wooden railway sleepers. They are drenched in immensely toxic anti-rotting agents to begin with, and seep up all the oil and other contaminants (e.g. feces from bypassing old trains without closed-loop toilets).
Yes, as only extremely modern passenger trains have regenerative or resistive electrical brakes and even they need to do the last few bits of the braking process with the old friction brakes since electrical braking doesn't need at low speed.
Old trains, especially freight, still runs entirely on friction brakes - either metal or the new "silent brakes" that are a plastics composite.
Additionally, you have environmental concerns from oil and lube, which is why you should never fucking ever re-use torn out wooden railway sleepers. They are drenched in immensely toxic anti-rotting agents to begin with, and seep up all the oil and other contaminants (e.g. feces from bypassing old trains without closed-loop toilets).
I wouldn't necessarily carve salad servers out of old railway sleepers but I don't see what problems they'd cause if used for the edge of a flower bed. Remnants of human faeces that have been in the sun and the rain for a year seem a lot less frightening that the fresh cat and pigeon poo you'll find in almost any urban garden.
> I wouldn't necessarily carve salad servers out of old railway sleepers but I don't see what problems they'd cause if used for the edge of a flower bed.
The anti-rot agents (and, in case your local railway does pesticide spraying to reduce weeds, these too) will leech out into your flower bed and kill it off.
The anti-rot agents (and, in case your local railway does pesticide spraying to reduce weeds, these too) will leech out into your flower bed and kill it off.
No, the modern inverter electric locomotives can break to zero with the motor just fine, they just lack a sensor to accurately measure speed and their motors take, at these ultra-low-speeds, a "desired torque" value, not a "desired RPM" value.
You still want friction breaks to hold you in place once you've stopped, but there's no strict need to use them earlier. Yes, current controllers may not be intelligent enough, but that should be fixeable without changing the power electronics, and only replacing their controller.
You still want friction breaks to hold you in place once you've stopped, but there's no strict need to use them earlier. Yes, current controllers may not be intelligent enough, but that should be fixeable without changing the power electronics, and only replacing their controller.
Lot of the rolling stock is 40 years and older though, with new locos costing millions of dollars apiece it takes lots of time to modernize fleets.
Europe still uses screw and hook/buffers for that reason, and it took well over a decade to mandate silent composite brakes.
Europe still uses screw and hook/buffers for that reason, and it took well over a decade to mandate silent composite brakes.
Yeah, rolling stock is old.
Also, in Germany the DB Class 120 locos (the first series-production 3-phase inverter electric locos) were retired between 2016 and 2020 (build during the 80's).
Even the older non-inverter locos here use electro-dynamic brakes (afaik for economic/control reasons, as they are better than air for keeping speed during downhill sections under control), and the remaining ones will retire soon.
The screw and hook/buffers issue is more due to the distributed ownership of the freight cars, and early issues with certification of adapters between UIC central couplers and screw+hook/buffers.
Sure, there are situations where it's too steep to only brake the loco, but they aren't that common and adding some induction brakes to some of the heavier cars and preferentially using them shouldn't be particularly expensive. Sure, not cheap, but also not prohibitive for getting rid of friction breaks in the course of normal operation (well, some friction breaking may be needed from time to time to keep them in check and verify proper function.... but still a >90% reduction shouldn't be hard.
Even the older non-inverter locos here use electro-dynamic brakes (afaik for economic/control reasons, as they are better than air for keeping speed during downhill sections under control), and the remaining ones will retire soon.
The screw and hook/buffers issue is more due to the distributed ownership of the freight cars, and early issues with certification of adapters between UIC central couplers and screw+hook/buffers.
Sure, there are situations where it's too steep to only brake the loco, but they aren't that common and adding some induction brakes to some of the heavier cars and preferentially using them shouldn't be particularly expensive. Sure, not cheap, but also not prohibitive for getting rid of friction breaks in the course of normal operation (well, some friction breaking may be needed from time to time to keep them in check and verify proper function.... but still a >90% reduction shouldn't be hard.
> Is there a major environmental/health problem with particulate from regular steel-on-steel railways?
In tunnels, from "erosion from the wheels and brakes, and the rails", yes:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/london-tube-dust
In tunnels, from "erosion from the wheels and brakes, and the rails", yes:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/london-tube-dust
isn't infrastructure an investment, not a cost, tho?
> when we finally get rid of ICE cars
When we send them to poorer countries, as Germany has been doing with cars that fail the TÜV emissions test. Central Asia is full of German cars.
I suspect that the same is going on with recycling and emissions. Rich countries reduce their impact by moving it elsewhere.
When we send them to poorer countries, as Germany has been doing with cars that fail the TÜV emissions test. Central Asia is full of German cars.
I suspect that the same is going on with recycling and emissions. Rich countries reduce their impact by moving it elsewhere.
No need to reach as far as Central Asia. My country (Poland) has a healthy influx of used German cars from German brands.
It's likely to get smaller with time though, because e.g. diesel cars manufactured during and after the VW emissions scandal turn out to be expensive to repair once key components like injectors fail.
There's a whole market of refurbished injectors, flywheels etc., but buying such parts comes with a risk.
Also VAG products declined in quality in the recent years.
Anecdata: my father's 2018 Skoda CitiGo failed its emissions test because of a failed EGR valve - turns out it's a common problem - even in fairly new cars.
It's likely to get smaller with time though, because e.g. diesel cars manufactured during and after the VW emissions scandal turn out to be expensive to repair once key components like injectors fail.
There's a whole market of refurbished injectors, flywheels etc., but buying such parts comes with a risk.
Also VAG products declined in quality in the recent years.
Anecdata: my father's 2018 Skoda CitiGo failed its emissions test because of a failed EGR valve - turns out it's a common problem - even in fairly new cars.
Yeah well, that is indeed a problem. It will get better a couple of years after we stop manufacturing new ICE cars. They don't have infinite lifetimes after all.
I always wonder how many toxins are we currently unknowingly afflicting upon ourselves. Lead has been linked to a number of neurological and societal issues.
The spike in anxiety and depression in the past decades makes me wonder if there is something going on there or if it is more of a reaction the social environment.
The spike in anxiety and depression in the past decades makes me wonder if there is something going on there or if it is more of a reaction the social environment.
Non stick pans, water resistant shoe spray, plastic, mercury in seafood due to coal mining, various fumes from cars and gas stoves.
We know all about it. It's just no one cares.
We know all about it. It's just no one cares.
I have never seen any conclusive evidence for nonstick cookware being dangerous with normal usage. I know that PTFE shouldn't get too hot, and temperatures above 500F are rare for range cooking.
Even if you burn the heck out of it, it has little direct risk if you're not a bird. I think the worst recorded case had someone fall asleep, burn the pan down to the base metal, and fill his apartment with smoke. All he got were some flu-like breathing symptoms (polymer fume fever) and a few days in hospital to monitor. So the chances of problems from incidentally getting the pan too hot via normal cooking seem low.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4544973/
That said, cancer is apparently everywhere these days so that's a possibility, but no links are yet known. Though I do steer towards steel and iron anyway since I like to get a good sear which is easier with iron, and using metal tools is just more fun.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4544973/
That said, cancer is apparently everywhere these days so that's a possibility, but no links are yet known. Though I do steer towards steel and iron anyway since I like to get a good sear which is easier with iron, and using metal tools is just more fun.
There was serious evidence regarding PFOA, and a scandal relating to hiding information about toxicity.
The chemical companies claim that what they replaced it with is safer alternatives, but after reading this article I seriously wouldn’t trust them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/magazine/the-lawyer-who-b...
The chemical companies claim that what they replaced it with is safer alternatives, but after reading this article I seriously wouldn’t trust them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/magazine/the-lawyer-who-b...
Cooking in a pan is in general 400-500F. But "normal use" also means you occasionally burn, overheat or scratch the pan.
At that point your nonstick pan releases toxic fumes, and starts to deteriorate.
PTFE is banned here, after research showed correlation with cancer.
With "normal use" there would be 0 car incidents, 0 plane crashes, 0 shootings.
At that point your nonstick pan releases toxic fumes, and starts to deteriorate.
PTFE is banned here, after research showed correlation with cancer.
With "normal use" there would be 0 car incidents, 0 plane crashes, 0 shootings.
400F, yes but most cooking oils have a smoke point below 500F. Even then, where is the evidence? Where exactly is PTFE banned and where is the strong correlation?
"Normal usage" for many Westerners, and surely other nations, includes destroying the surface coating with metal utensils while cooking, and then eating small particles of the nonstick (because if they're not attached to the pan anymore...where do you think they are?)
Even intended use means using plastic utensils which release toxic crap when heated and chip off leaving little plastic bits in your food. There is no safe way to use non stick pans.
40% of the world’s electricity is from coal, which is also a very large source of CO2 emissions
Does all water resistant proofing that causes issues?
You can use the classic techniques such as using waxes and/or oils to add water resistance. There are downsides though in that they add more weight and require special care (eg: oiled items cannot be washed with soap without having to reapply).
Estrogenic Chemicals for one.
https://www.amazon.com/Estrogeneration-Estrogenics-Making-Si...
Pretty much 90% of plastics.
https://www.amazon.com/Estrogeneration-Estrogenics-Making-Si...
Pretty much 90% of plastics.
I agree - I think we'll realize in our lifetimes that plastics have a lot to do with rises in some of those mental issues alongside the decline in average testosterone levels in males.
I wonder if that's behind the huge rise in MtF transsexuals in recent times. A friend of mine is a teacher in a high school and 4 of 15 kids in her class are trans.
Why is it okay to speculate about mental issues from rise in sex hormone mimicking chemicals in the environment but not about actual sexual issues?
There isn't such a decline.
https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1372192564053430279
https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1372192564053430279
As much as I want to trust a guy on twitter who made some graphs on excel, according to the journal of endocrinology their is a decline:
https://academic.oup.com/jcem/article/92/1/196/2598434
Plastics might not be the only factor, I believe a lot of it has to do with lifestyle of average americans as well (obesity, sedentary, high sugar and fat diets) though I do think that plastics play a part as well.
Plastics might not be the only factor, I believe a lot of it has to do with lifestyle of average americans as well (obesity, sedentary, high sugar and fat diets) though I do think that plastics play a part as well.
The first factual claim on miscarriages is false.
He says early pregnancy failures have increased ten percent. The graph he links shows no such increase according to line of best fit. It only shows it if he cherry picks the largest observation in the data.
Even if I grant this false assumption, his inference that late miscarriages have declined doesn't even follow, the data he's presented is fully consistent with an increase in late miscarriage of a few percent.
Regarding the testosterone question. The data in the tweet you mention actually does show such a decline - of almost 50 percent in young US males. His point is that the decline has stopped and levels have increased by an extremely small amount in the last 10 years, although that could easily be statistical noise since it is such a tiny increase. Overall, his data shows a large decrease over 50-100 years in the US.
He says early pregnancy failures have increased ten percent. The graph he links shows no such increase according to line of best fit. It only shows it if he cherry picks the largest observation in the data.
Even if I grant this false assumption, his inference that late miscarriages have declined doesn't even follow, the data he's presented is fully consistent with an increase in late miscarriage of a few percent.
Regarding the testosterone question. The data in the tweet you mention actually does show such a decline - of almost 50 percent in young US males. His point is that the decline has stopped and levels have increased by an extremely small amount in the last 10 years, although that could easily be statistical noise since it is such a tiny increase. Overall, his data shows a large decrease over 50-100 years in the US.
FYI, for true pedantic accuracy, the term toxicant is preferred by toxicologists. Toxins are offensive poisons produced by organisms. Thus Lead is not a toxin unless concentrated to harmful doses by some organism.
Highly recommend anyone interested in medicine to study toxicology, because there are so many misconceptions and FUD in this space. It's a great bullshit detector for all the hippies crowing about "removing toxins from the body"
Highly recommend anyone interested in medicine to study toxicology, because there are so many misconceptions and FUD in this space. It's a great bullshit detector for all the hippies crowing about "removing toxins from the body"
Microplastics is probably a big one. We're just making more of it every year and they will never disappear. It's incredibly stupid and everyone just keeps using it, even in stuff like body wash, sunscreen and toothpaste.
People like us should get together and fill the world with at least sensors so that it becomes more visible.
People like us should get together and fill the world with at least sensors so that it becomes more visible.
does it not eventually get consumed by bacteria? they keep talking about finding bacteria/fungii that can digest it?
Vegetable oil
Could be a combination of things, some worse but others better:
> A commission organized by medical journal The Lancet last year calculated that modifying a dozen risk factors could prevent or delay dementia in 40% of cases. These 12 variables are lack of education, hypertension, auditive disability, smoking, obesity, depression, lack of physical activity, diabetes, social isolation, excess consumption of alcohol, blows to the head and atmospheric contamination.
> A commission organized by medical journal The Lancet last year calculated that modifying a dozen risk factors could prevent or delay dementia in 40% of cases. These 12 variables are lack of education, hypertension, auditive disability, smoking, obesity, depression, lack of physical activity, diabetes, social isolation, excess consumption of alcohol, blows to the head and atmospheric contamination.
I remember one of my generation's hobbies especially on the country side was drinking copious amount of booze at every opportunity. You could buy beer in most work canteens. People still drink but it is nowhere close to the frequency that people drank in the 90ies and before:
https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention...
https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention...
Is there any evidence connecting that to Alzheimers?
Regardless, based on your description, the current elderly are the people who grew up drinking heavily.
Regardless, based on your description, the current elderly are the people who grew up drinking heavily.
Mostly this boils down to stupid people who would in previous times have died before dementia was an issue.
That’s also the year when table tennis became an Olympic sport.
I know you're making a joke about spurious correlations, but proposing that a link may exist between the reduction in incidence of a neurodegenerative illness and the removal of a substance with proven neurodegenerative effects from the environment is quite reasonable.
At the very least, it passes the sniff test for plausibility and it is worth looking into.
At the very least, it passes the sniff test for plausibility and it is worth looking into.
Indeed, every measure that helps decreasing the overall heavy metal burden is welcomed.
One of such is the Minamata convention on Mercury [1].
"Studies also confirmed that neurotoxic metals, including lead, mercury, aluminum, and manganese, are measurably more harmful in combination than separately" [2]
One researcher that has been advocating for the link between mercury toxicity and Alzheimer's is Dr. Boyd Haley [3].
Lastly, here is a cool video showing how Mercury causes neuron degeneration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpC17nfZVvU
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamata_Convention_on_Mercury
[2] DOI:10.1588/medver.2005.02.00070 [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AQxkIcXrt0 [4]
One of such is the Minamata convention on Mercury [1].
"Studies also confirmed that neurotoxic metals, including lead, mercury, aluminum, and manganese, are measurably more harmful in combination than separately" [2]
One researcher that has been advocating for the link between mercury toxicity and Alzheimer's is Dr. Boyd Haley [3].
Lastly, here is a cool video showing how Mercury causes neuron degeneration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpC17nfZVvU
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamata_Convention_on_Mercury
[2] DOI:10.1588/medver.2005.02.00070 [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AQxkIcXrt0 [4]
Sleep apnea is being fixed from roughly that year. CPAP invented in 80s, commercialized in 1989.
"ResMed was established in 1989 by Peter Farrell in Australia."
Apnea treatments have improved big time since then, and will keep improving, as most are misdiagnosed.
"ResMed was established in 1989 by Peter Farrell in Australia."
Apnea treatments have improved big time since then, and will keep improving, as most are misdiagnosed.
More likely smoking bans.
Richer countries have been trying very hard to reduce smoking since about 1990.
Richer countries have been trying very hard to reduce smoking since about 1990.
Curious, how do you find these kinds of correlations?
> However, in the words of neurologist David Pérez of Madrid’s Hospital 12 Octubre, thinking that these proteins are responsible for Alzheimer’s is like arriving at the scene of a crime and believing the blood committed murder.
I keep reading so much about the mis-folded proteins that it's easy to forget that's not the target?
But at the same time, I can't help but think that if we stop the mis-folding we stop the problem? Or am I just thinking about it all wrong?
I keep reading so much about the mis-folded proteins that it's easy to forget that's not the target?
But at the same time, I can't help but think that if we stop the mis-folding we stop the problem? Or am I just thinking about it all wrong?
Life almost by definition is not the lowest energy state matter can exist at. Thus living proteins may need some extra energy care and maintenance to maintain their functional form. Without this active input, they may relax into a form that from one perspective is "mis-folded" but from another perspective is just the natural lower energy state the collection of atoms is expected to be found in if nothing is maintaining it. So maybe instead of "stop misfolding" it is provide adequate maintenance infrastructure and budget.
But the maintenance workers (mitochondria) have a much more active life than the sedentary (brain) cells they inhabit and have suffered through many cell divisions each with their accumulation of errors till at some point just like all us worker drones, have no fscks left to give.
But the maintenance workers (mitochondria) have a much more active life than the sedentary (brain) cells they inhabit and have suffered through many cell divisions each with their accumulation of errors till at some point just like all us worker drones, have no fscks left to give.
The 'amyloid hypothesis' as the protein being the cause of Alzheimer's has been the most popular for a few decades, so it's not surprising you've read so much about it. But there hasn't been much success in drugs targeting the protein. New evidence suggests that there could be an underlying cause.
I'm a fan of the theory that bacteria/viruses are a cause and that the proteins we see are an overkill immune response to that (wouldn't be the first time - influenza/covid kill some not directly but via the immune system over-doing it).
See https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05719-4 for more details.
I'm a fan of the theory that bacteria/viruses are a cause and that the proteins we see are an overkill immune response to that (wouldn't be the first time - influenza/covid kill some not directly but via the immune system over-doing it).
See https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05719-4 for more details.
when i was a grad student in an amyloid lab (2009-ish) we were already doubting the amyloid hypothesis. Not so much the PIs. It's kind of wierd to see these ideas finally catching hold today.
But when the grant money is coming in, you're gonna push your hypothesis hard.
That said, IMO we really don't know. I worked on figuring out how to make these experiments more reproducible. My paper is cited a TON, but whenever I peek into the field, people are still are using shitty techniques, even the papers citing me.... Feels like "you didn't read the paper, did you?".
But when the grant money is coming in, you're gonna push your hypothesis hard.
That said, IMO we really don't know. I worked on figuring out how to make these experiments more reproducible. My paper is cited a TON, but whenever I peek into the field, people are still are using shitty techniques, even the papers citing me.... Feels like "you didn't read the paper, did you?".
> I'm a fan of the theory that bacteria/viruses are a cause and that the proteins we see are an overkill immune response to that
That would be ... bad ... given that we just had a lot of the world exposed to Covid, and then we just vaccinated everyone to ramp up the immune system.
That would be ... bad ... given that we just had a lot of the world exposed to Covid, and then we just vaccinated everyone to ramp up the immune system.
> arriving at the scene of a crime and believing the blood committed murder.
It's more like "believing the death was caused by loss of blood" though, right? As in, it's not completely unreasonable to believe that if you could somehow stop (& compensate) the loss of blood in a timely manner, the person might live, even with a bullet in their body.
It's more like "believing the death was caused by loss of blood" though, right? As in, it's not completely unreasonable to believe that if you could somehow stop (& compensate) the loss of blood in a timely manner, the person might live, even with a bullet in their body.
If you want to specify the metaphor more, it would be like believing that the blood clots committed murder. The protein aggregations apparently serve the same purpose, and are often generated in response to damage/infection.
There is evidence that the misfolding may be a side effect not a cause.
A lot of interesting hypothesis in this thread. But I’ll offer the simplest, and unfortunately least optimistic: This is simply downstream of the Flynn effect.
There were serious gains in IQ between the cohort aging into Alzheimer’s 30 years ago and today. This was mainly due to improvements in childhood nutrition, healthcare, and education in the post war period.
It’s well known that Alzheimer’s rates tend to be much lower in the high IQ. Not because the incidence of disease is lower, but because it’s harder to diagnose. John von Neumann would have to experience some serious mental decline before he started failing the standard cognitive batteries.
This is less hopeful for two reasons. Number one the disease still exists and is having an effect. It’s still bad if you experience mental decline even if you start at a high baseline. And if life extends far enough, eventually it will get you in a real bad way sooner or later. Number two IQ gains, like height, started seriously after this cohort. So we wouldn’t expect to see continued declines at the same rate.
There were serious gains in IQ between the cohort aging into Alzheimer’s 30 years ago and today. This was mainly due to improvements in childhood nutrition, healthcare, and education in the post war period.
It’s well known that Alzheimer’s rates tend to be much lower in the high IQ. Not because the incidence of disease is lower, but because it’s harder to diagnose. John von Neumann would have to experience some serious mental decline before he started failing the standard cognitive batteries.
This is less hopeful for two reasons. Number one the disease still exists and is having an effect. It’s still bad if you experience mental decline even if you start at a high baseline. And if life extends far enough, eventually it will get you in a real bad way sooner or later. Number two IQ gains, like height, started seriously after this cohort. So we wouldn’t expect to see continued declines at the same rate.
>Not because the incidence of disease is lower, but because it’s harder to diagnose.
While it's seems true that "High IQ can mask early Alzheimer’s symptoms"[1] I would be surprised if that could explain such a large decline in incidence as they mention in that report that while it did mask the early symptoms, that just made the decline appear more sudden.
The cognitive decline is really incredible, I saw it happen to my grandmother and she went from being a perfectly normal person to not recognising family members and becoming increasingly confused and aggressive all within a few years.
So I think even more educated/intelligent people would eventually be diagnosed (perhaps a few months later) and thus any effect on the incidence would be small (due perhaps to these people dying prior to diagnosis).
Furthermore, the Flynn effect is quite small, no - around 14 IQ points over more than half a century and now some talk of a decline, the "reversed Flynn effect" so it's not even clear how substantial an IQ difference we could expect.
If the decline is due to "improvements in childhood nutrition, healthcare, and education" then I think that's quite good though, as those are things we can control.
[1] https://www.heraldnet.com/news/high-iq-can-mask-early-alzhei...
While it's seems true that "High IQ can mask early Alzheimer’s symptoms"[1] I would be surprised if that could explain such a large decline in incidence as they mention in that report that while it did mask the early symptoms, that just made the decline appear more sudden.
The cognitive decline is really incredible, I saw it happen to my grandmother and she went from being a perfectly normal person to not recognising family members and becoming increasingly confused and aggressive all within a few years.
So I think even more educated/intelligent people would eventually be diagnosed (perhaps a few months later) and thus any effect on the incidence would be small (due perhaps to these people dying prior to diagnosis).
Furthermore, the Flynn effect is quite small, no - around 14 IQ points over more than half a century and now some talk of a decline, the "reversed Flynn effect" so it's not even clear how substantial an IQ difference we could expect.
If the decline is due to "improvements in childhood nutrition, healthcare, and education" then I think that's quite good though, as those are things we can control.
[1] https://www.heraldnet.com/news/high-iq-can-mask-early-alzhei...
> This was mainly due to improvements in childhood nutrition, healthcare, and education in the post war period.
Even controlling for these improvements, the Flynn Effect is still happening. The cause of the Flynn Effect is as-yet unknown, but it is not due to these improvements.
There's speculation that it's due to society increasingly being an environment that develops abstract thinking, which is the kind of thinking that is tested in IQ tests. So it's not that people are organically developing a higher IQ, but that people are just getting better at IQ tests
Even controlling for these improvements, the Flynn Effect is still happening. The cause of the Flynn Effect is as-yet unknown, but it is not due to these improvements.
There's speculation that it's due to society increasingly being an environment that develops abstract thinking, which is the kind of thinking that is tested in IQ tests. So it's not that people are organically developing a higher IQ, but that people are just getting better at IQ tests
This is a good point. As the traditional wisdom goes: when your data indicate a signal, first suspect the validity of your data.
> The researcher displays an image of a Siberian tiger brain, full of amyloid beta. “We have seen changes similar to Alzheimer’s in many mammals, but the disease never develops,” Rábano explains.
Interesting
Interesting
It's well known that the amyloid hypothesis has failed to find any solid support as a cause (rather than an effect or co-occurrence) of other Alzheimer's processes. That's why the recent Biogen drug is so controversial.
I havent read the article yet, but just to point out that Alzheimer's as a diagnosis is quite a specific one that requires a brain biopsy to prove. This doesn't generally happen. More common is probably vascular dementia - a disease of the small vessels of the brain that have the same risk factors as coronary artery disease (male, age, smoking, obesity, diabetes etc). More work has been done targeting these risk factors for the general health of populations.
> Alzheimer's as a diagnosis is quite a specific one that requires a brain biopsy to prove
That’d mean you have a reliable biomarker. But as I read comments here it seems that protein buildup may be unrelated.
That’d mean you have a reliable biomarker. But as I read comments here it seems that protein buildup may be unrelated.
It's not all good news - although the percentage of instances per age group have been decreasing, as the article says "the overall number of dementia cases is on the rise, due to the increase in life expectancy and the fact there are a greater number of old people".
That depends on what the information is needed for, I would say. If you need to care for these people, the total number might be more important. If you are getting old yourself and are wondering whether you might get it, then the incidence might be more interesting.
Could there also be a sugar connection? Alzheimer's is referred to as "Type 3 Diabetes" where insulin resistance plays a role in a person developing the symptoms.
Do the populations of richer countries consume less sugar per head than poorer nations?
Do the populations of richer countries consume less sugar per head than poorer nations?
It's also been linked to gingivitis:
https://www.newsweek.com/dementia-gum-disease-alzheimers-lin...
https://www.newsweek.com/dementia-gum-disease-alzheimers-lin...
DNA tests on three brains with Alzheimer's disease and six healthy brains also had the gene associated with P. gingivalis in their tissue. The team also examined the cerebrospinal fluid and saliva of 10 patients believed to have Alzheimer's disease, and found the P. gingivalis gene hmuY in seven, and P. gingivalis itself in all of them.
And in an experiment on mice, those dosed with gingipains had higher levels of the hallmark Alzheimer's protein, amyloid beta, and greater damage to their neurons than those who didn't. What's more, when mice were treated with a drug blocking the enzymes, the neurodegeneration stopped.
...
However, he said the study was limited because the team has not yet determined if different strains of P. gingivalis are more virulent than others in causing brain infection. "This remains an area of active investigation," he said.It's also been linked to HSV-1
Quite the opposite, per capita sugar consumption in developed countries is over 50% higher than developing countries, and 300% that of the least developed countries (35.5kg vs 21.6kg vs 11.4kg per person per year)
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/agr_outlook-2015-tab...
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/agr_outlook-2015-tab...
Wow! That's lot of opportunities for selling high-margin sugary drinks and snacks to the Billions of hungry people in least developed countries.
it's gotta be something to do with some process we are doing differently, there is so many variables to take into consideration, i know people are super privacy these days but we really could benefit if we allow some of our data to be cross referenced in order to find more connections between what we eat and what medicines we take, it's probably already being done somewhere but think of all the grocery stores that have pharmacies, our eating habits may reflect a deeper health issue, connect that with opt in pharmacy data and possible geographic location we might be able to pin point causation.
It’s tempting to see more data as the solution to everything. Yet, a lot of data creates a high-dimensional space where all the points are really far apart(aka the curse of dimensionality). That’s one of the reasons genome-wide association studies are often frowned upon. With many genetic variants making a tiny contribution to a disease it’s challenging to find the cause.
> It is the first time a drug that attacks the suspected causes of Alzheimer’s has received approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA): ... but is has not yet been proven that this implies clinical benefits for patients. It is still unknown if the treatment works.
It's been approved, ... for what, then?
It's been approved, ... for what, then?
Looks to me like aducanumab publicity packed in some fluff. Possibly to paint a positive picture in hope of influencing the EU authorization?
My hypothesis: more brain stimulation due to media saturation and an increase in nominally personalised and interactive entertainment experience.
Less smoking, transfat bans, more awareness around physical and mental health and diet
>more awareness around physical and mental health and diet
Is this true? Diabetes, obesity, anxiety, and depression continue to to climb
Is this true? Diabetes, obesity, anxiety, and depression continue to to climb
Is it because rich people sleep more? Sleep has been shown to influence AD
That wouldn't explain a 16% general drop over a decade where more and more working and middle class masses became less rich and more anxious...
Careful: fewer and fewer people work. It's under 50% now. So you can work those workers harder and still see the average person sleep more and have less stress.
Statins.
What medications are more commonly prescribed then before?
Ones that are used more in richer companies.
Climate Change.
Cardiovascular health has been improved because of CO2 emissions.
Or, if not playing the blame everything on climate change game - Less smoking, less PM 2.5 pollution, better climate control in buildings have all also helped cardiovascular health.
(Missing from the article - declining incidence is more pronounced among men than women)
Cardiovascular health has been improved because of CO2 emissions.
Or, if not playing the blame everything on climate change game - Less smoking, less PM 2.5 pollution, better climate control in buildings have all also helped cardiovascular health.
(Missing from the article - declining incidence is more pronounced among men than women)
Has average cardiovascular health improved though? I'd have thought it must be worse, with the obesity epidemic and all.
Mortality is dropping in the richer countries https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2016/16_0211.htm (2014)
Smoking and medicine.
People seemed to think smoking was lung cancer, when it was always about cardiovascular health. (It was also about smoke not tobacco)
Poorer countries climbing, a lot due to other diseases lowering.
You'd need to really drill down to find where to link it to Alzheimers, assuming this best guess from the researchers is correct. It seems a very good guess, it fits in a few places.
Smoking and medicine.
People seemed to think smoking was lung cancer, when it was always about cardiovascular health. (It was also about smoke not tobacco)
Poorer countries climbing, a lot due to other diseases lowering.
You'd need to really drill down to find where to link it to Alzheimers, assuming this best guess from the researchers is correct. It seems a very good guess, it fits in a few places.
Ok Im going to guess. The advent and popularity the keto diet.
Assumptions 1) Alzheimers has been postulated to be a metabolic disease of the brain and the keto diet via ketones provide a cleaner-fuel with less by-products.
2) The richer countries has more people able to afford the keto-food. Generally more expensive. Fatty beef cuts, cheese, salmon etc.
Just a stab in the dark or another guess. I'm not a scientist !
Assumptions 1) Alzheimers has been postulated to be a metabolic disease of the brain and the keto diet via ketones provide a cleaner-fuel with less by-products.
2) The richer countries has more people able to afford the keto-food. Generally more expensive. Fatty beef cuts, cheese, salmon etc.
Just a stab in the dark or another guess. I'm not a scientist !
Virtually no one is on a life long (or even just long) keto diet
If you're not a scientist, and have basically no clue what you're saying, why even comment?
I have a degree in biochemistry and microbiology, but I'm not in that field anymore. So a a little more than just "no clue"