Tesla aims to launch Full Self-Driving Computer 2 with Cybertruck next year(electrek.co)
electrek.co
Tesla aims to launch Full Self-Driving Computer 2 with Cybertruck next year
https://electrek.co/2021/08/20/tesla-aims-launch-full-self-driving-computer-2-cybertruck-next-year/
45 comments
"aims to launch next year", as in the signs you find at bars that say "FREE BEER... TOMORROW"
I don’t see how this isn’t a class action lawsuit in the making. Tons of Tesla owners have bought “full self driving.” This seems like an admission that Tesla cannot deliver FSD to those customers.
I'm looking to sell my f150 in to these high used car prices and get an electric pickup for hauling my snowmobile. Self driving doesn't interest me at all. Cyber truck delivery is mid 2022. Hopefully it is cheaper than the long range f150 lightning.
Announced cybertruck prices were always highly predicated on huge battery manufacturing improvements (we now know as 4680 cells). There have been plenty of rumours Tesla is having trouble ramping up production volume and yields since they have admitted the refreshed Y might not get them right away, so if cybertruck does ship in mid 2022 it's likely to be a much more model 3 launch trickling out than Y where they could ramp up very fast.
That's ignoring all the basic issues with the cybertruck design. Tesla doesn't have EU pedestrian regulations to contend with (something cybertruck's basic shape likely cannot ever meet), but they still have a bunch of NHTSA stuff that isn't going to be easy with the weird choices they made. I suspect the production cybertruck won't be quite as extreme as what they showed.
I really like my model 3, but I treat any statement by Tesla as a complete fabrication until it's in the metal off a production line.
On the other hand, I'd be shocked if Ford doesn't deliver exactly what they announced for the prices they predicted. If I was looking to buy an EV truck right now I'd put my money on F-150 Lightning.
That's ignoring all the basic issues with the cybertruck design. Tesla doesn't have EU pedestrian regulations to contend with (something cybertruck's basic shape likely cannot ever meet), but they still have a bunch of NHTSA stuff that isn't going to be easy with the weird choices they made. I suspect the production cybertruck won't be quite as extreme as what they showed.
I really like my model 3, but I treat any statement by Tesla as a complete fabrication until it's in the metal off a production line.
On the other hand, I'd be shocked if Ford doesn't deliver exactly what they announced for the prices they predicted. If I was looking to buy an EV truck right now I'd put my money on F-150 Lightning.
Plus the lightning has that killer frunk- tesla can’t compete on its tailgatability
The whole grill coming up and the fact it’s so load/unload friendly is a game changer for people who daily drive a truck. No more leaving groceries in the bed to slide around or fiddle with getting them into the backseat of a crew cab. Then add in the plugs in the frunk and bed and it might be the most useable truck every developed.
So they think there is less danger to the occupants when introducing FSD to Cybertruck first?
I don’t see how to reach anything on the same axis as that conclusion from the article, can you elaborate?
I know when I want to protect the public I build 8,000 pound trucks that can do 0-60 in 4 seconds by remote control
Hasn’t it been next year for last several years.
Looks like Elon Musk had invented perpetual moving target. It is always next year, and obviously as such they never miss the target.
Looks like Elon Musk had invented perpetual moving target. It is always next year, and obviously as such they never miss the target.
1 million robo taxies we’re supposed to be on the road already.
If it's not clear the reason Tesla is so keen on FSD is because they need that for their future robotaxi service which would be big dollars.
To get there they need the data from their current customers. But once they get an approved version of FSD it will be self sustaining for data and Tesla's interest in their customer's FSD will quickly fade away.
To get there they need the data from their current customers. But once they get an approved version of FSD it will be self sustaining for data and Tesla's interest in their customer's FSD will quickly fade away.
This matches the AI day extrapolation.
If they are training significantly larger neural nets with dojo, and dojo is not really in production use until next year, it is likely FSD2 will be finalized only after they run some models from dojo.
I think in Elon Speak, they can make a driver safer than humans with the current computer, but FSD2 is needed for "robotaxis".
If they are training significantly larger neural nets with dojo, and dojo is not really in production use until next year, it is likely FSD2 will be finalized only after they run some models from dojo.
I think in Elon Speak, they can make a driver safer than humans with the current computer, but FSD2 is needed for "robotaxis".
I heard that before :).
New hardware as well - so much for the current customers - pretty sure they will offer a very pricey upgrade path.
Paging @FSD_in_6m
The third computer upgrade since they claimed that the hardware was ready for full-self driving. And full self-driving is still nowhere to be found.
If they launch fsd hardware 2 it is the tombstone of fsd hardware 1. People who own the older hardware will never get fsd. The other people won’t get it either, but the original owners definitely won’t.
Someone asked about this at the AI day. There won't be ugrades, Musk said that HW1 will be full self driving, just not as good at it as HW2 same way not everyone is equally good at driving.
All cars are fully self driving, but some are more self driving than others. -Elon
full self driving and 100% accident prone are not mutually exclusive, I guess
FSD 2 will only hit people and road barriers 30% less of the time as compared to FSD 1 :)
Musk is so full of it... even if he succeeds on Mars, that planet is tiny, but I guess it is a proof of concept, maybe.
It never ceases to surprise me how the most innovative company in the auto industry, maybe in the world, the only company actually attempting to move the needle is so despised in HN. Is it not obvious that when attempting to do what no one, ever, has been able to do, timelines and predictions are hard to nail down? Is it not better for Musk to be overly optimistic than join the legions of miserable cynics that cannot do anything but whine and at best repackage the works of better people?
> the only company actually attempting to move the needle is so despised in HN
This adulation certainly contributes. Just because other companies aren't constantly talking about or hawking their half-baked things doesn't mean they're not doing research. There are some companies spending more on research than Tesla's entire budget, but some of you seem to think Tesla is the only one trying new things because their CEO has to organize an event and riff about anything that comes to mind while pretending it's almost done. It honestly makes me sad that so many people fall for this.
This adulation certainly contributes. Just because other companies aren't constantly talking about or hawking their half-baked things doesn't mean they're not doing research. There are some companies spending more on research than Tesla's entire budget, but some of you seem to think Tesla is the only one trying new things because their CEO has to organize an event and riff about anything that comes to mind while pretending it's almost done. It honestly makes me sad that so many people fall for this.
Absolutely. Tesla bot was the nail in the coffin for me.
Was the Bot reveal any worse than Asimo from Honda in 2000?
Asimo was an actual product.
Who buys it? From the current website it doesn’t appear to be for sale.
I can’t say, I was only 14 and I don’t recall any promises Honda made about Asimo.
What’s your take on it? Do you remember? I’d like to know more and gain some more context here. I mean, maybe Tesla bot and Asimo are part of something very cyclical, a technology pattern that’s been occurring for decades.
I think the issue with Tesla for me has been too much over-promising. Their products are stellar by all measures in my opinion, but I have great admiration for being intentional, transparent, and communicating clearly in business while also delivering. It’s hard to do but it’s important and I believe it signifies honesty, reliability, and company cohesion - sort of soft metrics I feel I can trust in the long term.
Tesla clearly embodies some of this, but the lack of intention aligning with reality, plans changing, lack of transparency - that’s a company for don’t want to depend on for products or to invest my money in.
What’s your take on it? Do you remember? I’d like to know more and gain some more context here. I mean, maybe Tesla bot and Asimo are part of something very cyclical, a technology pattern that’s been occurring for decades.
I think the issue with Tesla for me has been too much over-promising. Their products are stellar by all measures in my opinion, but I have great admiration for being intentional, transparent, and communicating clearly in business while also delivering. It’s hard to do but it’s important and I believe it signifies honesty, reliability, and company cohesion - sort of soft metrics I feel I can trust in the long term.
Tesla clearly embodies some of this, but the lack of intention aligning with reality, plans changing, lack of transparency - that’s a company for don’t want to depend on for products or to invest my money in.
There are stories about tesla employees (even the execs) learning about a feature or timeline they are responsible for delivering when elon tweets about it. Apparently the best approach is to hope he forgets, since telling him he is wrong gets you fired.
They're despised because they're liars. They're not trying to move the needle. They're selling a PR image of moving the needle.
That PR needle image is shipping cars that are showing up in YouTube videos driving non-employee consumers through San Francisco with minimal intervention.
Maybe it’s reckless, maybe it’s dangerous, maybe it’ll never work in $scenario. But it’s more than a PR image.
Maybe it’s reckless, maybe it’s dangerous, maybe it’ll never work in $scenario. But it’s more than a PR image.
> that are showing up in YouTube videos
This is PR.
This is PR.
Timelines are hard to nail down. So why does Tesla's leadership keep announcing targets that are repeatedly missed? Especially as "self-driving" was supposed to be ready by 2018.
Meanwhile, it's 2021, and the CEO is saying "it's harder than I thought", while again promising that you can put your safety in the hands of a beta software "soon".
"Haha, FSD 9 beta is shipping soon, I swear! Generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of real-world AI. I didn’t expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect. Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality." [0]
[0] https://electrek.co/2021/07/05/elon-musk-admits-self-driving...
Meanwhile, it's 2021, and the CEO is saying "it's harder than I thought", while again promising that you can put your safety in the hands of a beta software "soon".
"Haha, FSD 9 beta is shipping soon, I swear! Generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of real-world AI. I didn’t expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect. Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality." [0]
[0] https://electrek.co/2021/07/05/elon-musk-admits-self-driving...
But should consumers really get their money back in some point, because the product was falsely promoted and advertised?
Marketing hype and optimistic BS get's tired after a while.
It would have been better he raised funding behind the scenes and continued build good electric cars and keeping FSD as a skunkworks until it was ready.
Like Waymo - show of the tech but say it is not ready yet.
It would have been better he raised funding behind the scenes and continued build good electric cars and keeping FSD as a skunkworks until it was ready.
Like Waymo - show of the tech but say it is not ready yet.
Apple reportedly had a really hard time hiring AV people due to the exact secrecy you're discussing.
I’m just totally disinterested in anyone moving the needle on autonomous vehicles. To me they represent little but surveillance and dependence on software updates.
If you ever saw the animated film “Appleseed Ex Machina” you might be more sympathetic to my position. Or I, Robot for that matter. I just don’t need a million cars doing whatever the next software update tells them, it’s not worth it for a little line following bot.
If you ever saw the animated film “Appleseed Ex Machina” you might be more sympathetic to my position. Or I, Robot for that matter. I just don’t need a million cars doing whatever the next software update tells them, it’s not worth it for a little line following bot.
Why draw the line at vehicles?
You carry in your pocket every day a device that does whatever the next software update tells it, yet you trust it will all your personal information and feel lost if it leaves your side.
You carry in your pocket every day a device that does whatever the next software update tells it, yet you trust it will all your personal information and feel lost if it leaves your side.
I can actually get along fine without my smartphone thanks
Also my phone doesn’t do 0-60 in 2 seconds so I have a little less fear of it being automated
Also my phone doesn’t do 0-60 in 2 seconds so I have a little less fear of it being automated
an offline GPS device would solve most of my problems of not having a phone with me at all times... but all cars broadcast your location anyways. https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-exec-gps-2014-1
I'm fully aware of what FSD actually is today vs. Tesla's claims, so I didn't give Tesla an extra dime (nor do I use autopilot on my fully capable car since I believe it's a dangerous driver). Not everyone who buys a Tesla and pays for FSD has the benefit of knowing how close to scam it is.
One thing that would help would be making it illegal to sell features largely software driven before they actually exist (or at least make 100% of money spent on such features 100% refundable no questions asked by law). Tesla is raking in cash from people who don't know better plunking down $10,000 for a feature that doesn't exist (and might be 10+ years away) with the threat of it costing more in the future if they don't buy now.
The only way I've been able to reconcile the cognitive dissonance of giving money to a company that nearly defrauded people on some of their upcoming claims is to think of tesla as 2 distinct companies. One company manufactures and sells a very usable everyday electric vehicle and maintains an excellent network of chargers that let me roam the continent at will. The other company is a hype-machine designed to boost the stock price by announcing more and more features and models far beyond the capabilities of the manufacturing company. Right now Tesla has produced 5 different model of car over its lifespan (roadster and S, 3, X, Y for a childish joke). They have 4 announced and un-produced products (roadster, semi, plaid+ [now cancelled], and cybertruck), some of which have been announced for many years now. Does that seem like a sustainable company? Then add in the FSD debacle and accompanying hardware promises and it feels awfully pyramid-schemy. Luckily for the manufacturing company, the value of their factory, charging network and produced engineering is so high if the hype company fails the manufacturing can keep going. What I tell people is the tangible stuff you can buy from tesla is pretty good and there are lots of other excellent EVs from other companies already out and coming soon. If you want a tesla, buy one they currently manufacture and don't give them a penny or a thought for anything 'coming soon'.