The US Refuses to Fall in Love with Electric Cars(wired.com)
wired.com
The US Refuses to Fall in Love with Electric Cars
https://www.wired.com/story/evs-us-investment/
53 comments
I have family in a very rural area, we drive one-way 500+ miles, ~9 hours, several times a year to see them. In my ICE SUV I have to stop twice for gas assuming I start with a full tank.
Trying to do that trip in an electric vehicle, in order to account for charging stations, would add 4 stops and around 2 hours for charging. Tesla's trips webpage also estimates that I'd save...$13 in fuel compared to gas.
The cars are more expensive, the number of required stopping locations is increased while severely restricted, and overall I don't save much money charging compared to buying gasoline. Overall it doesn't add up, and I think a lot of Americans see it this way as well.
In the US the automobile has historically been marketed and used as a tool of freedom, independence, mobility, etc. It's hard to market something as a provider of mobility when in my mind I see an orange extension cord tethering it to the cities and metro areas.
Trying to do that trip in an electric vehicle, in order to account for charging stations, would add 4 stops and around 2 hours for charging. Tesla's trips webpage also estimates that I'd save...$13 in fuel compared to gas.
The cars are more expensive, the number of required stopping locations is increased while severely restricted, and overall I don't save much money charging compared to buying gasoline. Overall it doesn't add up, and I think a lot of Americans see it this way as well.
In the US the automobile has historically been marketed and used as a tool of freedom, independence, mobility, etc. It's hard to market something as a provider of mobility when in my mind I see an orange extension cord tethering it to the cities and metro areas.
Electric cars have their limits, just like a small toyota or honda car won't be right to pull your big boat of travel trailer. You need to find charging along your route, and you don't want to arrive with only a tiny range left and be stuck with slow charging. But that very rarely happens to me today driving all around the northwest to ski, go to canada (precovid at least ;-)), Banff, Oregon, Idaho, you can just drive there.
I'm curious about the route, because that's not that far. The first gen lucid air cars have a 500 mile range. That max range vehicle costs about 160k at the moment. Many cheaper cars are 300+ miles today, even the rivian truck has an epa range of 314 miles (and this is far from the best long range car). Tesla has 400 mile range cars today (latest model s at 396 miles), model 3 is 350 miles w awd.
Tesla superchargers make charging easy and fast generally for the entire area, with that distance and a tesla or other current gen car, and allowing 1 or 2 20 minute charging stops it should be easy to go that distance. I'd consider trying one of the websites that let you pick a route and input your car and they suggest distance and charging locations needed (e.g., https://aBetterRoutePlanner.com). With tesla you usually pay around the price of electricity; unfortuatenly electrify america charges double or triple local power prices. It's not that hard for me to go anywhere I want in my 7 year old model s.
I'm curious about the route, because that's not that far. The first gen lucid air cars have a 500 mile range. That max range vehicle costs about 160k at the moment. Many cheaper cars are 300+ miles today, even the rivian truck has an epa range of 314 miles (and this is far from the best long range car). Tesla has 400 mile range cars today (latest model s at 396 miles), model 3 is 350 miles w awd.
Tesla superchargers make charging easy and fast generally for the entire area, with that distance and a tesla or other current gen car, and allowing 1 or 2 20 minute charging stops it should be easy to go that distance. I'd consider trying one of the websites that let you pick a route and input your car and they suggest distance and charging locations needed (e.g., https://aBetterRoutePlanner.com). With tesla you usually pay around the price of electricity; unfortuatenly electrify america charges double or triple local power prices. It's not that hard for me to go anywhere I want in my 7 year old model s.
I just tried that site and set it to "fewest stops", it dropped from 4 to 3 charges for a Tesla model 3, and reduced charging time to a little bit over an hour. That's not as bad as Tesla's planning site was showing me.
I also tried adjusting the car type to a Ford Mach-e, and I only have to stop twice as long as I drive a 5-hour stretch at 55 MPH max. The speed limit on this stretch is 75 MPH.
I do understand that different vehicles have different functionality and targeted use-cases. In this case, I'm not pulling a boat or a trailer. I'm "just driving" which is a pretty standard thing to want to do in a car. My point still stands, if I need to spend $160k to drive 500 miles in an electric vehicle, I'd rather go buy a $40k ICE vehicle that can do it with fewer stops.
I also tried adjusting the car type to a Ford Mach-e, and I only have to stop twice as long as I drive a 5-hour stretch at 55 MPH max. The speed limit on this stretch is 75 MPH.
I do understand that different vehicles have different functionality and targeted use-cases. In this case, I'm not pulling a boat or a trailer. I'm "just driving" which is a pretty standard thing to want to do in a car. My point still stands, if I need to spend $160k to drive 500 miles in an electric vehicle, I'd rather go buy a $40k ICE vehicle that can do it with fewer stops.
The bigger thing to me is the time for the stops. I can generally fill up, go to the restroom and grab a meal in well under 20m with ICE. Depending on the trip, I'd have to sit for another half hour or more.
My last Vegas trip, one of the stops near a charging center had several cars waiting for chargers. I don't think I'd enjoy that at all.
I've thought about an EV for local commuting, but the costs just don't seem worth it. Let alone even less ability for independent repair or maintaining. And dropping $15-20k every few years on a new set of batteries is definitely less than appealing.
My last Vegas trip, one of the stops near a charging center had several cars waiting for chargers. I don't think I'd enjoy that at all.
I've thought about an EV for local commuting, but the costs just don't seem worth it. Let alone even less ability for independent repair or maintaining. And dropping $15-20k every few years on a new set of batteries is definitely less than appealing.
Personally a hard blocker for me is the charging networks -- I really, really, really do not want to invest in a car whose charging network languishes while I'm still relying on that car day-to-day. Tesla's network should be forced open to all EVs and a common charger standard should be mandated going forward. Until that happens I'm not touching EVs with a ten foot pole.
There already is a standard charger in the US, CCS. All fast chargers installed in the last few years have been either Tesla or CCS. All non-Tesla models introduces in the last several years have had CCS faster chargers. Early on Nissan was promoting CHADEMO but that plug type is now deprecated in the US. There are still also J772 level 2 chargers for low speed charging such as at your house, but all vehicles support that as well.
It is true that other markets have their own standards, China and Japan for instance but the number of cars moved between markets is very small.
In Europe, Tesla has switched to CCS. In the US, Tesla has committed to letting CCS cars charge on its network. The CCS network in the US is growing quickly and is in the same general size as Teslas. Thing are coming together.
It is true that other markets have their own standards, China and Japan for instance but the number of cars moved between markets is very small.
In Europe, Tesla has switched to CCS. In the US, Tesla has committed to letting CCS cars charge on its network. The CCS network in the US is growing quickly and is in the same general size as Teslas. Thing are coming together.
Except that CCS in US is not the same things as CCS in Europe.
Why should tesla be forced to open their network? They had the foresight to build it out ahead of time. I think it would be better to incentivize other networks to do better and compete with tesla.
Doesn't matter; Tesla has already said they would, and started the pilot program a couple of months ago. (not in the US yet however)
https://www.tesla.com/support/non-tesla-supercharging
But to answer your bigger point: others networks aren't incentivized yet to push harder to compete. The demand just isn't there yet. For EVs to be successful in the US, there needs to be more than one successful company. This is a goal that is bigger than capitalism, and sometimes you have to work at odds with capitalism to accomplish those kind of goals.
https://www.tesla.com/support/non-tesla-supercharging
But to answer your bigger point: others networks aren't incentivized yet to push harder to compete. The demand just isn't there yet. For EVs to be successful in the US, there needs to be more than one successful company. This is a goal that is bigger than capitalism, and sometimes you have to work at odds with capitalism to accomplish those kind of goals.
There's already more than one successful company, see vw & ea. Tesla only opened their network in europe where they have the same plug experimentally. In the us it looked like they might open their network by putting dual charging plugs at superchargers if they were getting money from the bbb, but that money seems remote now. If telsa started building ccs charging networks in the us that were about the same as tesla superchargers except with that plug, they'd crush the competition because they charge market rates for their electricity and fix them when they are broken - this is beyond the capability the vw-owned electrify america.
Why should gas stations be forced to open their networks? Why should AT&T home internet let you sign up for Comcast or Google Fiber? Why should Verizon let you take a device you bought through them to T-Mobile? Why should Edge let you download Firefox?
I'll give you a few options: consumer choice, freedom, interoperability, less physical waste?
I'll give you a few options: consumer choice, freedom, interoperability, less physical waste?
That's one thing I really don't like about this country. We don't really push ahead aggressively with tech, it takes decades.
When we know something could be done, but currently isn't practical, instead of saying "Nope, we are building this charging network and we will have better batteries within 5 years", we say "Maybe someday, but right now we need gas".
We judge technology based on whether it works and is economical right now, even when there's a clear road map to making it work.
People still talk about whether the electric grid can handle the electric cars, and how windmills and solar are forcing coal offline, like as if we don't know how to upgrade things and build natural gas plants.
For a given individual, waiting a few generations makes sense, but it would be cool if big companies were just a little less obsessed with slow iterative development and rollout of tech that we pretty much already know how to do.
Everyone says batteries aren't sustainable and Lithium mining is bad, but the point isn't to make a billion lithium cars, everything now is just a prototype.
Building these missing technologies like energy storage should be as big of a deal as the moon landing was. The kind of "Make it work even if it costs 100 billion because our future depends on it" thing we just don't see anymore.
When we know something could be done, but currently isn't practical, instead of saying "Nope, we are building this charging network and we will have better batteries within 5 years", we say "Maybe someday, but right now we need gas".
We judge technology based on whether it works and is economical right now, even when there's a clear road map to making it work.
People still talk about whether the electric grid can handle the electric cars, and how windmills and solar are forcing coal offline, like as if we don't know how to upgrade things and build natural gas plants.
For a given individual, waiting a few generations makes sense, but it would be cool if big companies were just a little less obsessed with slow iterative development and rollout of tech that we pretty much already know how to do.
Everyone says batteries aren't sustainable and Lithium mining is bad, but the point isn't to make a billion lithium cars, everything now is just a prototype.
Building these missing technologies like energy storage should be as big of a deal as the moon landing was. The kind of "Make it work even if it costs 100 billion because our future depends on it" thing we just don't see anymore.
Well, not everyone has or can afford to spend $100k on something that doesn't really work for them but might in 5 years.
In the end, even if using the power of government there are finite people, time and resources. You have to choose what to spend on and what not to.
I know it's horrible that we don't live in a utopian society.
In the end, even if using the power of government there are finite people, time and resources. You have to choose what to spend on and what not to.
I know it's horrible that we don't live in a utopian society.
Yeah it totally makes sense from an average individual standpoint, that's currently an insane amount of money in a world where lots can't afford any car at all.
But it seems like it took a long time for even the big companies to fully trust that they would even be possible, and even the rich people looking for expensive toys didn't want them all that much till recently.
But it seems like it took a long time for even the big companies to fully trust that they would even be possible, and even the rich people looking for expensive toys didn't want them all that much till recently.
American culture and popular political sentiment is rarely about supporting the next generation and fostering new opportunities. It's almost always about shoring up the last of your resources as you live out the end of your life.
Think about it: financial support for elderly homeowners, overspending on end-of-life healthcare, political influence wielded by dead or dying industries, NIMBYism... People in the US firmly believe that government is for the old, holding back global changes so that old people can live the lives they are used to.
Think about it: financial support for elderly homeowners, overspending on end-of-life healthcare, political influence wielded by dead or dying industries, NIMBYism... People in the US firmly believe that government is for the old, holding back global changes so that old people can live the lives they are used to.
This was certainly evident with some covid restrictions. Hamper the education and mental development of healthy children to protect the elderly at all costs
The grid has held up just fine. We are hardly even taking advantage of the easy things like charging cars mostly at night when there is excess power. Ignore texas' failing network, that's their own fault for not requiring cold and hot weather power requirements.
I believe the concern is about growth. If a majority of people switched to EV the grid would be overwhelmed. [1] It is estimated that by 2030 about $125 billion would be required to upgrade the power infrastructure. That is based on just one study there are probably better ones.
[1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/10/13/electric-...
[1] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/10/13/electric-...
You left out some context from the cited study [1].
> Total annual fuel savings of $12 billion/year relative to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles translates to an estimated societal payback of 8.6 years to cover the costs of electric sector investments (7.2 years if GHG benefits are included)
That's quite the ROI, and arguably the spending must take place regardless to decarbonize electrical generation and transmission.
[1] https://www.brattle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/19421_bra... (Slide 4, Key Findings)
> Total annual fuel savings of $12 billion/year relative to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles translates to an estimated societal payback of 8.6 years to cover the costs of electric sector investments (7.2 years if GHG benefits are included)
That's quite the ROI, and arguably the spending must take place regardless to decarbonize electrical generation and transmission.
[1] https://www.brattle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/19421_bra... (Slide 4, Key Findings)
Agreed. It will have to be done one way or another I just meant that we couldn't all just switch to EV's today without an overhaul of the system.
I live in an apartment complex that has cars parked along all of the roads because there's not enough parking spots. That's pretty common for apartments. Maybe, on paper, there's at least one spot per building, but not next to your building in particular and most apartments will have multiple car owners. And none of those spots have outlets. Even with a law making every spot have outlets, I frequently get off work and arrive to no open spots and parking on the streets. I cannot afford to gamble around on whether I'll be able to charge my car tonight or not. I really don't see how electric cars could work in that scenario.
While that is a major concern, and similar to why I didn't get an electric car... you might be able to charge it at work. I work remote still, so I can't do this, but if you're going to work, this might be a way to ensure you're charged.
Plus: you may have enough battery range that you don't need to charge every day anyway (making it much less of a "gamble" and more an intentional risk assessment) and some EV owners already live/work on once a week or two trips to a fast charger rather than daily charging. In some cases daily charging is a huge "bonus".
Street parking can have outlets, too. It's going to take some municipal power to get there and right now maybe not a lot of cities are thinking that far ahead, but it is something that eventually cities will have to ask themselves if they want to help fix and how.
Many cities already have electrically wired parking meters today and adding a plug on the side of that isn't a major technical hurdle, it's much more a sociopolitical hurdle.
Many cities already have electrically wired parking meters today and adding a plug on the side of that isn't a major technical hurdle, it's much more a sociopolitical hurdle.
Having every move I make, including every fill-up catalogued for corps and govts then sold to a string of highest bidders is a non-starter for me. Luckily don't drive much, will be sticking with classic cars (circa 2000 :) for the foreseeable future.
Unless you go through the bother of paying cash every time, it's probably pretty safe to assume VISA is selling the same data.
Most gas stations are owned by large chains, I assume they're doing it too. Some stores I visit literally pull up my email for e-receipt from my credit card alone.
There's also tracking systems (often used in malls) that use our phone's Bluetooth and Wifi signature to track us as we go store to store. Some use facial recognition as well.
There was a lawsuit here in Canada because police cars are equipped with license plate scanners which run 24/7, and retain all the data. Wouldn't even be a lawsuit if it was a private entity.
Our cell phone carriers also sell this data. Anonymized sure, but there's enough data points to figure out who is who, especially if paired with another data source.
There's also companies that sell a constant feed of satellite imaging. Hedge funds buy it so they can track cars in an out of oil refiners, to better estimate production figures, or setbacks if they see a bunch of emergency response vehicles.
I also have an appreciation for my older non-connected vehicles, but let's be real, the ship has sailed on being tracked everywhere we go. I may not like it, but I accept I'm always being tracked a dozen different ways no matter what I do.
I'm just glad I'm not anyone important or a political dissident, this would not be a good era for that.
Most gas stations are owned by large chains, I assume they're doing it too. Some stores I visit literally pull up my email for e-receipt from my credit card alone.
There's also tracking systems (often used in malls) that use our phone's Bluetooth and Wifi signature to track us as we go store to store. Some use facial recognition as well.
There was a lawsuit here in Canada because police cars are equipped with license plate scanners which run 24/7, and retain all the data. Wouldn't even be a lawsuit if it was a private entity.
Our cell phone carriers also sell this data. Anonymized sure, but there's enough data points to figure out who is who, especially if paired with another data source.
There's also companies that sell a constant feed of satellite imaging. Hedge funds buy it so they can track cars in an out of oil refiners, to better estimate production figures, or setbacks if they see a bunch of emergency response vehicles.
I also have an appreciation for my older non-connected vehicles, but let's be real, the ship has sailed on being tracked everywhere we go. I may not like it, but I accept I'm always being tracked a dozen different ways no matter what I do.
I'm just glad I'm not anyone important or a political dissident, this would not be a good era for that.
True, everyone is trying. I do use cash and other mitigations. My point is that whenever possible, I choose when to share data, when it benefits me. Not the other way around.
I sympathize with your comment. But doesn't this apply to ALL new vehicles? Can you help me understand how it's specific to electric vehicles?
It's been worse with them because manufacturers decided early that electric cars would be wired with hundreds of sensors and connected to the internet to deliver them to the manufacturer and who-knows who else.
Next, charging standards and stations decided that tracking your whereabouts was valuable as well. So when you plug in your car is identified, and matched with your financial and mobile phone details.
All this was sold as under the guise of convenience because range anxiety was and is real. Less of a problem now with extended range e-vehicles, but they are not winding down the collection of valuable data of course.
And yes, lots of this has spilled over into new gas vehicles, with the exception of the refueling angle. In comparison my current car is completely anonymous when I pay by cash.
Next, charging standards and stations decided that tracking your whereabouts was valuable as well. So when you plug in your car is identified, and matched with your financial and mobile phone details.
All this was sold as under the guise of convenience because range anxiety was and is real. Less of a problem now with extended range e-vehicles, but they are not winding down the collection of valuable data of course.
And yes, lots of this has spilled over into new gas vehicles, with the exception of the refueling angle. In comparison my current car is completely anonymous when I pay by cash.
Not only are there Charging Network issues, but Tesla has what appears to be a huge problem with supplying repair parts and service.
Here are two of the biggest Tesla fan boys around, calling them out on it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZG7iAMxTUA
Here are two of the biggest Tesla fan boys around, calling them out on it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZG7iAMxTUA
I'm stunned that a car company in today's world has a problem with supplying needed parts for their cars. It looks like only tesla has this problem. /s. More seriously, tesla does need to do better, their service network is behind their growth in sales, even though they've been steadily increasing their service centers.
I see the "/s" but seriously you can go to nearly any auto parts store and buy parts for an ICE vehicle. There are people that change their own oil, brakes, water pumps, etc. to save on labor. Most auto repair shops can do the majority of maintenance and since there are multiple third-party part vendors you have options on price, performance, etc. This combined with 5 figure battery replacement costs and the inconveniences of charging networks will keep US car buyers from "falling in love" with EV's for a long time.
I'm totally in love with EVs, but I'll never be able to afford a new one. Until there's attractive options for reasonable prices in the used market, I'll just have to watch folks wealthier than me enjoy their EVs.
Yep. I can figure out a way around charging hurdles on the rare occasions I drive outside the same ~80km range (and usually more like 10km range) I travel in a normal month.
But I got my used, low-mileage Fit for under $10k cash. While I understand even that sort of thing is harder to find these days, it'll still be a while before I can find a solid, cheap EV with roughly similar capabilities.
On top of that, people like me (live in an urban area, drive short distances) have it tough because we park on the street, not in a garage. Makes it a lot harder to justify If I can't just plug in every night. It's really a shame, because I'd be on board for just about every other aspect of an EV.
Hopefully down the line I'll see a decent used market emerge and/or we'll sort out some sort of way for city folks to charge easily. But I can't currently consider an EV as a mostly-drop-in replacement for a used, economy ICE car.
But I got my used, low-mileage Fit for under $10k cash. While I understand even that sort of thing is harder to find these days, it'll still be a while before I can find a solid, cheap EV with roughly similar capabilities.
On top of that, people like me (live in an urban area, drive short distances) have it tough because we park on the street, not in a garage. Makes it a lot harder to justify If I can't just plug in every night. It's really a shame, because I'd be on board for just about every other aspect of an EV.
Hopefully down the line I'll see a decent used market emerge and/or we'll sort out some sort of way for city folks to charge easily. But I can't currently consider an EV as a mostly-drop-in replacement for a used, economy ICE car.
These may be vaporware ultimately but it's still interesting. They aren't supposed to cost much more then a ICE does currently.
https://aptera.us/
(of course it's much less of a car for the money)
https://aptera.us/
(of course it's much less of a car for the money)
I would happily buy an EV once the designs start to resemble more of ICE cars. I really don't like the aesthetics of most of the EVs on the road today. If say Volvo made their current V60 wagon with an electric motor option, I would jump on it.
I know Audi has the etron, Ford has electrified some of their vehicles, and GM/Chevy is starting to do this as well. I imagine I'm driving my last ICE car as of now...
I know Audi has the etron, Ford has electrified some of their vehicles, and GM/Chevy is starting to do this as well. I imagine I'm driving my last ICE car as of now...
The problem for me is price. I think the segment of the population that buys most of the new cars is pretty small and they dictate the cars that later show up on the market for the rest of us. Electric cars are not really hot with that demographic so they never really penetrate the rest of the segment. Electric trucks are cool though so I expect once volume of mfg picks up we will see good adoption
With the different maintenance schedules of EVs the used market is forever going to shift with EVs and I think there's a lot of missing education of what that means, especially with respect to market prices, and it may take some time for the used market to adapt.
EVs seem to be causing a permanent shift of "Time Under First Owner". Fewer required maintenance milestones early in ownership seem to create incentives to own the car for longer. Some of the people regularly buying/leasing new cars create a lot of their turnover simply to avoid maintenance costs and with less overall maintenance, especially early in the life of vehicle, there's less incentive for turnover.
The other thing that influences prices in the used market is that turnover point and if it's maintenance-forced the first owners are more willing to sell for less if they pass on the maintenance burden to the next owner (or more likely the middleman in between the two; the used car market equivalent of a "house flipper", buy the car cheap because it needs a bunch of maintenance that you can do at reasonable cost and flip it back into the used market for a much higher price). That "opportunity cost" also seems to be disappearing with EVs. EVs don't as often have thousands of dollars of (deferred) maintenances costs at the 5 year/10 year horizon and there's much less to "flip". A lot of EVs go directly from the first owner to the second without even needing to show up on the used markets, and certainly without needing to go through major maintenance. That, naturally, drives up prices.
So far trends seem to imply that the used market isn't seeing many EVs not because new car buyers aren't buying them ("hot" or not), but that first owners are holding them longer and when they do sell them it often isn't through the "traditional" used market and when it is its usually still at a premium because there just isn't (deferred) maintenance generally driving costs down as in the traditional new ICE to used ICE market pipeline.
I don't know what your budget is specifically, but the economics shifts here indicate that it may be time to start budgeting for a new car if you truly want an EV any time soon. The math is very different from the old math of buying/leasing an ICE vehicle, because of the different realities of maintenance costs alone, and it can be worth reevaluating that math in your personal case, because those assumptions changed.
Which isn't to say that EV costs can't be driven down. Both EU and Asia are at a point where economies of scale are starting to kick in and average new EV costs have met or fallen below new ICE vehicle costs (in the EU mostly just for "diesel" vehicles still, but other categories may not be far behind; in the Chinese market it seems like EVs are winning in price in almost every car segment now). It will likely be a while before the US hits anything remotely similar in economies of scale precisely because of this chicken-and-egg that American consumers aren't buying enough EVs yet and many won't until prices drop. [1] It certainly doesn't help that the US is still fixated on heavier, more resource needy, segments like Trucks and SUVs, which drive prices back up in their own ways even with economies of scale behind them.
[1] This chicken-and-egg is also why eyes need to be on the imports horizon if you are looking for cheaper prices. It's exactly the sort of situation that made Japanese imports the cars to beat in the US in the 1980s and with Chinese manufacturers in seemingly a cat-bird seat now in terms of economies of scale for EVs there's a lot of interesting questions if Chinese manufacturers are about close enough to do cross over to the US EV market today similar to the market conditions that gave Japanese manufacturers such 1980s market power. So far Tesla is the US company incumbent to beat in EV sales, and the other US companies are greatly lagging behind. Imports may be hugely disruptive here in the US.
EVs seem to be causing a permanent shift of "Time Under First Owner". Fewer required maintenance milestones early in ownership seem to create incentives to own the car for longer. Some of the people regularly buying/leasing new cars create a lot of their turnover simply to avoid maintenance costs and with less overall maintenance, especially early in the life of vehicle, there's less incentive for turnover.
The other thing that influences prices in the used market is that turnover point and if it's maintenance-forced the first owners are more willing to sell for less if they pass on the maintenance burden to the next owner (or more likely the middleman in between the two; the used car market equivalent of a "house flipper", buy the car cheap because it needs a bunch of maintenance that you can do at reasonable cost and flip it back into the used market for a much higher price). That "opportunity cost" also seems to be disappearing with EVs. EVs don't as often have thousands of dollars of (deferred) maintenances costs at the 5 year/10 year horizon and there's much less to "flip". A lot of EVs go directly from the first owner to the second without even needing to show up on the used markets, and certainly without needing to go through major maintenance. That, naturally, drives up prices.
So far trends seem to imply that the used market isn't seeing many EVs not because new car buyers aren't buying them ("hot" or not), but that first owners are holding them longer and when they do sell them it often isn't through the "traditional" used market and when it is its usually still at a premium because there just isn't (deferred) maintenance generally driving costs down as in the traditional new ICE to used ICE market pipeline.
I don't know what your budget is specifically, but the economics shifts here indicate that it may be time to start budgeting for a new car if you truly want an EV any time soon. The math is very different from the old math of buying/leasing an ICE vehicle, because of the different realities of maintenance costs alone, and it can be worth reevaluating that math in your personal case, because those assumptions changed.
Which isn't to say that EV costs can't be driven down. Both EU and Asia are at a point where economies of scale are starting to kick in and average new EV costs have met or fallen below new ICE vehicle costs (in the EU mostly just for "diesel" vehicles still, but other categories may not be far behind; in the Chinese market it seems like EVs are winning in price in almost every car segment now). It will likely be a while before the US hits anything remotely similar in economies of scale precisely because of this chicken-and-egg that American consumers aren't buying enough EVs yet and many won't until prices drop. [1] It certainly doesn't help that the US is still fixated on heavier, more resource needy, segments like Trucks and SUVs, which drive prices back up in their own ways even with economies of scale behind them.
[1] This chicken-and-egg is also why eyes need to be on the imports horizon if you are looking for cheaper prices. It's exactly the sort of situation that made Japanese imports the cars to beat in the US in the 1980s and with Chinese manufacturers in seemingly a cat-bird seat now in terms of economies of scale for EVs there's a lot of interesting questions if Chinese manufacturers are about close enough to do cross over to the US EV market today similar to the market conditions that gave Japanese manufacturers such 1980s market power. So far Tesla is the US company incumbent to beat in EV sales, and the other US companies are greatly lagging behind. Imports may be hugely disruptive here in the US.
Make one that looks like a 4x4 (doesn't have to be, it'll never go offroad) and is about 2-3x as big as it really needs to be and I'm sure it'll sell...
The company you're looking for is Rivian.
FWIW, their vehicles' feature set looks extremely cool for people who do in fact go offroad, but I'm sure many will never leave the pavement.
FWIW, their vehicles' feature set looks extremely cool for people who do in fact go offroad, but I'm sure many will never leave the pavement.
Features are there for folks that don’t need to go far to off-road. But few can really afford to off-road a 80k car
US is vast and sparsely populated. It takes many hours to reach the next closest city to Denver or SLC. China is small (compared to the US) and extremely dense.
China has tons of cheap, subsidized electricity due to its love for coal. The present US administration hates coal, coal power plants, and coal mining. No cheap electricity == no incentive to buy an EV.
China has tons of cheap, subsidized electricity due to its love for coal. The present US administration hates coal, coal power plants, and coal mining. No cheap electricity == no incentive to buy an EV.
I am not sure if it's fair to say that China is small compared to the USA: https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/country-size-comparison/chin...
Though that is using the Mercator projection, you can at least tell that the contiguous USA is damn similar to China in scale. Perhaps China is even more biased towards the one coastline, with sparse settlements to the West, but the USA essentially has a massive deserve/mountain range in the middle, too.
Though that is using the Mercator projection, you can at least tell that the contiguous USA is damn similar to China in scale. Perhaps China is even more biased towards the one coastline, with sparse settlements to the West, but the USA essentially has a massive deserve/mountain range in the middle, too.
China's area is about 92,000 square miles less than the area of the US. The difference becomes more dramatic if you don't include Alaska.
Of course. But if you compare contiguous US (where 99% of people live and where 99% of people drive) to mainland China, you get very similar numbers. We don't include Puerto Rico or Hawaii or US military bases abroad in that square mileage of generally drivable US for the same reason.
EVs right now are not a good value proposition for a first car. The range is too low, the chargers are too hard to find, charging takes too long, the cars are too expensive, repairs are way more expensive, and they don't really help the environment all that much. It would be far more useful to me to get an ICE car which will be far cheaper and more reliable as my only vehicle.
Now this being said, I do think EVs make sense as a "daily driver", i.e. you only take your EV to work and the grocery store, and plug it in at night. Unfortunately this kind of requires a permanent residence, which nobody can afford right now.
Very excited for when EVs have 1000+ miles of range, charge quickly, and have more supporting infrastructure. But my guess is that this is at least 10 years off.
Now this being said, I do think EVs make sense as a "daily driver", i.e. you only take your EV to work and the grocery store, and plug it in at night. Unfortunately this kind of requires a permanent residence, which nobody can afford right now.
Very excited for when EVs have 1000+ miles of range, charge quickly, and have more supporting infrastructure. But my guess is that this is at least 10 years off.
Just view the price of gas/diesel in Europe versus Europe - a direct result of the ~~ 100 year petro-lobby, coupled with less space in Europe on roads and the lack of lobbying. Prices in Euros/liter 1 US Gallon = 3.79 Liters.
https://autotraveler.ru/spravka/benzine-in-europe-previous.h...
That says it all. In the USA gas/diesel cars are favored greatly over electric. I even expect the petro lobby to get battery car taxes legislated soon..
That says it all. In the USA gas/diesel cars are favored greatly over electric. I even expect the petro lobby to get battery car taxes legislated soon..
Mileage-based taxes are already being formulated because modern, efficient vehicles have meant lower gas tax revenues. EVs just add to that "pain".
It's less a product of the petroleum lobby than the desire to keep tax revenues high.
It's less a product of the petroleum lobby than the desire to keep tax revenues high.
Yes, not a good way to reduce carbon use - going forward = taxes on bicycles/ebikes?
I will love an EV when it is affordable and convenient for me.
The US is a big place and an EV is still a risky bet if you ever have to drive long distances. Available charging networks are still kind of unpredictable. Getting advertised charging rates is rare.
Most people I know want an EV, but they’re keenly aware that the next generation or two of EVs and charging networks will be substantially better. Waiting a few iterations is not a bad strategy.