Turkey to implement pact on access to shipping straits due to Ukraine war(reuters.com)
reuters.com
Turkey to implement pact on access to shipping straits due to Ukraine war
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-implement-international-pact-access-shipping-straits-due-ukraine-war-2022-02-27/
34 comments
[deleted]
Whilst you are correct about ships returning to base, the headline now reads:
"Turkey to implement pact limiting Russian warships to Black Sea"
https://archive.ph/3p6Tg
"Turkey to implement pact limiting Russian warships to Black Sea"
https://archive.ph/3p6Tg
The crux of the article is that Turkey is changing their mind. OP built a straw man.
Yeah, the HN mods fixed it; previous headline was Turkey closed Black Sea
The gist is, Montreux Convention ensures free travel through the straits at peacetime but allows for restrictions at wartime. Wartime could be a war that involves the countries with a shore on the Black sea but not Turkey or a war where Turkey is involved too.
So the news is, Turkey took its time to decide if this is a War or a limited time military operation and come to conclusion that this is a war indeed. As a result Turkey activated the passage restrictions for military ships at a wartime where Turkey is not taking part in. This essentially means, the Russian(an other Black sea nations) ships that are based in the Black sea can get through but Turkey may restrict those based elsewhere. It also means that Turkey can restrict American and other 3rd party warships from passing through the Bosphorus.
The purpose of the Montreux Convention is to keep peace in the Black sea by allowing free movement at peacetime(Turks can't stop ships from passing, therefore no reason to take it away from Turkey with force) and predefined restrictions at wartime(Turks can stop ships that are not based there, therefore limit the military build up), so this is not necessarily a pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian move.
Turkey sees the Montreux Convention as a primary mean to keep Turkey neutral in conflicts involving Russia and Istanbul out of the interests of large powers.
So the news is, Turkey took its time to decide if this is a War or a limited time military operation and come to conclusion that this is a war indeed. As a result Turkey activated the passage restrictions for military ships at a wartime where Turkey is not taking part in. This essentially means, the Russian(an other Black sea nations) ships that are based in the Black sea can get through but Turkey may restrict those based elsewhere. It also means that Turkey can restrict American and other 3rd party warships from passing through the Bosphorus.
The purpose of the Montreux Convention is to keep peace in the Black sea by allowing free movement at peacetime(Turks can't stop ships from passing, therefore no reason to take it away from Turkey with force) and predefined restrictions at wartime(Turks can stop ships that are not based there, therefore limit the military build up), so this is not necessarily a pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian move.
Turkey sees the Montreux Convention as a primary mean to keep Turkey neutral in conflicts involving Russia and Istanbul out of the interests of large powers.
> Turkey has stated continuously in last few days that it will follow the Montreux Convention, under which they cannot restrict vessels going back to their home base, including Russian ones.
Your comment is misleading:
"Turkey called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "war" on Sunday in a rhetorical shift that could pave the way for the NATO member nation to enact an international pact limiting Russian naval passage to the Black Sea."
"Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits that connect the Mediterranean and Black seas and can limit the passage of warships during wartime or if threatened."
Clearly they are reconsidering what they said.
Your comment is misleading:
"Turkey called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "war" on Sunday in a rhetorical shift that could pave the way for the NATO member nation to enact an international pact limiting Russian naval passage to the Black Sea."
"Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits that connect the Mediterranean and Black seas and can limit the passage of warships during wartime or if threatened."
Clearly they are reconsidering what they said.
My comment is not misleading.
> "Clearly they are reconsidering what they said."
I don't think that is the case. The short answer is, here's a link to a more detailed version of the article above - their recent change is calling it a "war", which allows them to trigger Montreux:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-implement-i...
Quote from the article
"Yet Cavusoglu (Turkey Foreign Minister) reiterated that Turkey cannot block all Russian warships accessing the Black Sea due to a clause in the pact exempting those returning to their registered base."
The long answer is, if you have been following European and Turkish politics in the last few years, you would see that Turkey is getting closer and closer to Russia (the F-35 debacle, getting S400 missile batteries, Turkstream etc). Turkey is also smart enough to play both sides. So, this move (to do nothing) is expected.
> "Clearly they are reconsidering what they said."
I don't think that is the case. The short answer is, here's a link to a more detailed version of the article above - their recent change is calling it a "war", which allows them to trigger Montreux:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-implement-i...
Quote from the article
"Yet Cavusoglu (Turkey Foreign Minister) reiterated that Turkey cannot block all Russian warships accessing the Black Sea due to a clause in the pact exempting those returning to their registered base."
The long answer is, if you have been following European and Turkish politics in the last few years, you would see that Turkey is getting closer and closer to Russia (the F-35 debacle, getting S400 missile batteries, Turkstream etc). Turkey is also smart enough to play both sides. So, this move (to do nothing) is expected.
As a person coming from a country which suffered 150 years of Turkish (Ottoman) invasion, glad to see they are doing the right thing.
p.s. we also had 60 years of Soviet rule. Had the worst luck
[deleted]
Anyone knows what the implications for Russia are from this move. Surprising that Turkey is showing more spine than core NATO nations.
Turkey IS one of the core, long-time NATO nations actually. Check the history, numbers, involvement and contribution.
Based on the article, the Russians will probably be upset, but may not do anything other than talk tough. Any attempt to sail through would probably be seen as a huge escalation that could potentially drag in NATO, and I don't think Putin wants that, although at this point who knows what he's thinking.
They don’t need to sail through they have moved all the assets they needed into the Black Sea including most of their Baltic fleet already.
They are the proverbial ducks in a barrel tho now.
They are the proverbial ducks in a barrel tho now.
Fish. Fish in a barrel. Ships can't fly out.
So they trust article 5 NATO and know what they do?
Which may have been a bold but fine move in 2014.
As I wrote in another thread:
>>Actually, anyone who didn't buy Francis Fukuyama could look up what would happen on a handfull of maps, diagrams and statistics. Even the official Russian ones.
Russia is landlocked or easily cut off.
Russia has vast empty stretches of land without population and transport routes.
Russia's main population centers and easily destructible logistic infrastructure lies to the west.
Russia has nine geostrategically important entry points that have to be secured.
Russia has to expand its sphere of influence to secure them.
Russia lost most of them in the early nineties and declined from Global Power to ignored bystander.
Their demographics works against them.
Their time runs out.
It's an Russian Empire or it's nothing.
If the west fuck it up in the next weeks, it may see a last warning over the baltic sea in form of a light brighter than thousand suns.
p.s.
And yes, I think Putin is mad and paranoid.
And that is the problem.>> [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30488300]
Well, perhaps, we will see a nuke over another sea.
And the Chinese are waiting out the whole mess between Russia and the West.
A bit like they did in WWII with the Kuomintang and the Japanese. Expensive pastime for sure, but brilliant.
Which may have been a bold but fine move in 2014.
As I wrote in another thread:
>>Actually, anyone who didn't buy Francis Fukuyama could look up what would happen on a handfull of maps, diagrams and statistics. Even the official Russian ones.
Russia is landlocked or easily cut off.
Russia has vast empty stretches of land without population and transport routes.
Russia's main population centers and easily destructible logistic infrastructure lies to the west.
Russia has nine geostrategically important entry points that have to be secured.
Russia has to expand its sphere of influence to secure them.
Russia lost most of them in the early nineties and declined from Global Power to ignored bystander.
Their demographics works against them.
Their time runs out.
It's an Russian Empire or it's nothing.
If the west fuck it up in the next weeks, it may see a last warning over the baltic sea in form of a light brighter than thousand suns.
p.s.
And yes, I think Putin is mad and paranoid.
And that is the problem.>> [https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30488300]
Well, perhaps, we will see a nuke over another sea.
And the Chinese are waiting out the whole mess between Russia and the West.
A bit like they did in WWII with the Kuomintang and the Japanese. Expensive pastime for sure, but brilliant.
Indeed, it's the "real new Ottoman Empire" in its death throes.
Just like the Ottomans entered WW1 for the sole reason "of keeping itself relevant," with nothing to show for it except opportunistic ideas, Russia will similarly crushed, and dismembered as a country now.
Just like the Ottomans entered WW1 for the sole reason "of keeping itself relevant," with nothing to show for it except opportunistic ideas, Russia will similarly crushed, and dismembered as a country now.
> Russia will similarly crushed, and dismembered as a country now.
I hope not - and I don' think that anyone wants that.
I think it's clear that Putin is not fit lead any more and the apparatus that he has built is corrupt and disfunctional.
I don't want Russia crushed and dismembered. I'd like a stable, happy, healthy Russia with new, non-paranoid leadership, and Putin living in a small dacha somewhere.
I hope not - and I don' think that anyone wants that.
I think it's clear that Putin is not fit lead any more and the apparatus that he has built is corrupt and disfunctional.
I don't want Russia crushed and dismembered. I'd like a stable, happy, healthy Russia with new, non-paranoid leadership, and Putin living in a small dacha somewhere.
They are mostly doing it to themselves. People don't want to start businesses and families in a country with a mafia government that can take away or destroy what they have built at any time.
Yes, but I'm a bit cross, unlike the Ottomans back then the Russians have nukes, which may ruin my own comfortable and painless fading into oblivion as a German, on my Ottoman in my backyard garden.
Mods: please restore the original accurate headline: "Turkey to implement international pact on access to shipping straits due to Ukraine war"
Current article headline is "Turkey to implement pact limiting Russian warships to Black Sea" though... it also says "Last Updated 43 min ago" and "4:44 PM GMT+1" (it's 17:29 GMT+1 for me right now), while your comment is at least an hour old just now.
Turkey, like Germany, has had time to reconsider how history might think on its response to the invasion of Ukraine.
Germany is backpaying its nato contribution, and germans are out in numbers claiming germany is yet again suffering for europe. It’s just ridiculous.
German Parliament convened today, they will triple funding for the Bundeswehr.
Good. Anyway I am simply amazed by the UK tho. The eu should agree to a frictionless trade agreement because of their contribution to all this.
That's a start. But Germany is in arrears for many years of not meeting their NATO obligations.
> But Germany is in arrears for many years of not meeting their NATO obligations.
No, they aren't. Spending targets aren't obligations, and there are no “arrears” from them. I know Trump popularized this line as part of his anti-NATO propaganda, but it isn't how things work.
No, they aren't. Spending targets aren't obligations, and there are no “arrears” from them. I know Trump popularized this line as part of his anti-NATO propaganda, but it isn't how things work.
While it is true that the "2% rule" was informal until recently, it is a fact that Europe has decreased its defense spending significantly over the years, from an average of 2% of GDP in the 90s to 1.5% in 2014 when the agreement to go back up to 2% by 2024 was made. In that time, US defense spending rose from 3.1 to 3.4% of GDP. NATO spending targets aren't "obligations" like you say, but don't be surprised when Americans don't want to support Europe's defense so that Europeans, who constantly hate on the US for being "world police", can afford to spend more on social programs. It's kind of sad that the only thing that got the major European countries to start taking their own defense seriously is a neighboring country being invaded.
They're agreements of all members.
The current spending targets are agreements to aim for specific % GDP spending levels by 2024.
Turkey is very active in supporting Ukraine since a long time. That's why the Turkish flag was among the flags waved in the Ukrainian parliament: https://twitter.com/haskologlu/status/1488590864658182152/ph...
Although the country did not illuminate any iconic building in the Ukrainian flags colours, they have been providing Ukraine with cutting edge armed drones and diplomatic support against Russia for a while now.
The official Ukrainian media accounts have been praising the Turkish support since the start of the war.
I wouldn't worry too much about Turkey's place in the history books.
Although the country did not illuminate any iconic building in the Ukrainian flags colours, they have been providing Ukraine with cutting edge armed drones and diplomatic support against Russia for a while now.
The official Ukrainian media accounts have been praising the Turkish support since the start of the war.
I wouldn't worry too much about Turkey's place in the history books.
Indeed! Ukranians mention Bayraktar drones in several of their videos. Many of the convoy hits were done with them, I read earlier.
I researched Turkey quite a bit recently.
Largely speaking, the Crimean naval base that this all has been about originally appeared to be largely due to Russia against Turkey.
In Syria and Libya, they aren't on the same side of the conflict.
Many years ago Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet. Putin said Turkey stabbed them in the back over this one. Month later Erdogan had a coupdtat which he survived. Russian ambassador got assassinated. They eventually had a peace summit and Russia lifted sanctions. They both backed Maduro in venezuela. They tried to repair relations.
But more important, over the next 5 years. practically every economic problem was blamed on the russians. In my own personal analysis, they were completely founded. For whatever reason Russia was doing this I don't know. Mind you, Russia is surrounding Turkey with lots of military. But Turkey is NATO. But for the most part turkey has been trying to improve relations with russia.
This change in demeaner by Turkey will be a strong message.
Largely speaking, the Crimean naval base that this all has been about originally appeared to be largely due to Russia against Turkey.
In Syria and Libya, they aren't on the same side of the conflict.
Many years ago Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet. Putin said Turkey stabbed them in the back over this one. Month later Erdogan had a coupdtat which he survived. Russian ambassador got assassinated. They eventually had a peace summit and Russia lifted sanctions. They both backed Maduro in venezuela. They tried to repair relations.
But more important, over the next 5 years. practically every economic problem was blamed on the russians. In my own personal analysis, they were completely founded. For whatever reason Russia was doing this I don't know. Mind you, Russia is surrounding Turkey with lots of military. But Turkey is NATO. But for the most part turkey has been trying to improve relations with russia.
This change in demeaner by Turkey will be a strong message.
Turkey has NOT closed the Black sea; this article does not say that at all.
Turkey has stated continuously in last few days that it will follow the Montreux Convention, under which they cannot restrict vessels going back to their home base, including Russian ones.