Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment February 27(iswresearch.org)
iswresearch.org
Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment February 27
http://www.iswresearch.org/2022/02/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian_27.html
74 comments
There was a really interesting article published here, auto-translated from Russian, written by a retired General before the invasion.
He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic.
Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422
He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic.
Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422
Everybody who works in big company knows how much information/details in whatever status report is getting lost by the time that it get's to C level and how much becomes beautified.
Now think about system where this chain is much longer and very kleptocratic. By the time reports get "up there" they show what they are expected to show and do not reflect reality.
Now think about system where this chain is much longer and very kleptocratic. By the time reports get "up there" they show what they are expected to show and do not reflect reality.
Really hope this is true because it probably reduces risk of more violence. If Putin was convinced to carry out the operation because some war hawks said it would be a cake walk, they will now be out of favor and the more sober and calculating Putin will realize this was all a big mistake and that further attacks will just make things worse.
A “sober and calculating” person would never have entered into this conflict.
Putin seems to have an almost-religious perception of this situation. He views Ukraine as part of a “greater Russia”, and the post-Soviet reorganization that put Ukraine on a vector away from Russian influence as a great historical humiliation.
His comments about there being no point to a world without Russia in it (from 2018) and about the Russia/Ukraine split as an accident of history rather than a fact to be recognized (from last summer) are deeply disturbing.
Russia seems to be relatively weak in all dimensions but two: the ability to indiscriminately level a city and nuclear weapons.
Perilous times.
Putin seems to have an almost-religious perception of this situation. He views Ukraine as part of a “greater Russia”, and the post-Soviet reorganization that put Ukraine on a vector away from Russian influence as a great historical humiliation.
His comments about there being no point to a world without Russia in it (from 2018) and about the Russia/Ukraine split as an accident of history rather than a fact to be recognized (from last summer) are deeply disturbing.
Russia seems to be relatively weak in all dimensions but two: the ability to indiscriminately level a city and nuclear weapons.
Perilous times.
Putin went bananas. He now digs in, because other wise it will show that he is weak. Also there are news that after couple of years in covid isolation he "changed". The only one who can interact with him directly are his bodyguards. Yesterday on news segment when he was ordering to bring nuclear forces to readiness, minister of defence and chief general or whatever were sitting at least 10m away from him
Why hasn’t Russia used the thermobaric weapons yet?
The propaganda message to his citizens is “we are here to ensure peace”. So until his helpers rewrite the message, they are acting more restrained.
But he is already preparing to apply the Grozny playbook where the city was practically razed to the ground. His excuse will be something like “we warned them and they still hid amongst the civilians, it’s their own fault”
Mentioning the nuclear threat shows some desperation. He is probably seeing some internal pressure from his corrupt business buddies.
Those thermobaric munitions also do a nice job exploding before being launched when hit by a drone. They clear out quite a large group of invaders with one well placed shot.
But he is already preparing to apply the Grozny playbook where the city was practically razed to the ground. His excuse will be something like “we warned them and they still hid amongst the civilians, it’s their own fault”
Mentioning the nuclear threat shows some desperation. He is probably seeing some internal pressure from his corrupt business buddies.
Those thermobaric munitions also do a nice job exploding before being launched when hit by a drone. They clear out quite a large group of invaders with one well placed shot.
No way is Putin going to raze a Ukrainian city like that. It will lead to neutral countries such as China and Brazil to actively isolate Russia even more.
And the empty threats towards Sweden and Finland are now just that. Germany is increasing the military defense budget so it will become larger than the Russian.
https://m.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-s...
And the empty threats towards Sweden and Finland are now just that. Germany is increasing the military defense budget so it will become larger than the Russian.
https://m.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-s...
Well, a few weeks ago I might have said no way he would actually invade the whole Ukraine. But here we are.
I thought it was the usual posturing, maybe take Donbass, until I saw the staggering number of troops in Belarus and the new military bridge they built right from the border with Ukraine. My stomach dropped when the photos come in 3 days before the invasion.
I think he has clearly shown he rather go off spectacularly than lose his face.
Unfortunely, most likely this will escalate and I am just waiting for him to declare any kind of help to Ukrain as an official war declaration on Russia, and then we are all in.
Unfortunely, most likely this will escalate and I am just waiting for him to declare any kind of help to Ukrain as an official war declaration on Russia, and then we are all in.
For the same reason they haven't carpet bombed the capital yet. The pictures would lead to everyone seeing what this invasion is really about and might even put pressure on China to condemn Putin.
However, he might be getting desperate enough:
> Russian forces are deploying additional artillery assets including thermobaric artillery to the Kharkiv axis as of February 27.
However, he might be getting desperate enough:
> Russian forces are deploying additional artillery assets including thermobaric artillery to the Kharkiv axis as of February 27.
they did, in the outskirts of kharkiv
I saw some videos but am still not sure if they’re confirmed.
getting downvoted, but here is another vid of it
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498537119467327488?ref_...
Apparently the leader of the Donetsk separatist region announced a suspension of mobilisations recently, saying no more troops are required.
And odd declaration in the middle of a war.
Either they've realised they're screwed or something unforeseen is about to happen.
On the whole, I think Putin has been reading his own press a bit - thinking the Ukrainians would roll over and in parts welcome his 'liberating' force, but instead he's getting his nose bloodied by a well armed, well trained, well coached, resilient populace and army. He's being absolutely embarrassed on the world stage by a comedian. It must be killing him.
And odd declaration in the middle of a war.
Either they've realised they're screwed or something unforeseen is about to happen.
On the whole, I think Putin has been reading his own press a bit - thinking the Ukrainians would roll over and in parts welcome his 'liberating' force, but instead he's getting his nose bloodied by a well armed, well trained, well coached, resilient populace and army. He's being absolutely embarrassed on the world stage by a comedian. It must be killing him.
mobilization was forced. people were literally dragged from streets. obviously later they were running away from fight, because it's not their fight
Nothing much changed today. The russian special forces are getting wrecked and we knew the reg force troops would convoy behind. The reg forces will take tremendous losses against general mobilization. Their morale is bad now? oh man...
Dare I say, Russia is losing this? The Russian troops are much trashier than expected and/or there's some serious proxy war going on right now. Zelensky is for sure being coached by some serious folks.
Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. It makes me think Russia was given some pretty serious false impressions about what they started.
When the aggressor starts talking peace after only a few days of complete failure... They screwed up pretty big and they know it.
Dare I say, Russia is losing this? The Russian troops are much trashier than expected and/or there's some serious proxy war going on right now. Zelensky is for sure being coached by some serious folks.
Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. It makes me think Russia was given some pretty serious false impressions about what they started.
When the aggressor starts talking peace after only a few days of complete failure... They screwed up pretty big and they know it.
Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance.
Something I can't wrap my head around is why is there even Internet in Ukraine still? Shouldn't the first step of Russian OPs have been to take out telecom? Phones went out in a hurry in ex-Yu (per my parents), but in Ukraine there's still widespread "phones on steroid" to live stream/comment the whole thing every step of the way.
Is it because they're hard to take out or is it a strategic decision? I was initially thinking it must be a voluntary omission, some kind of psyop to get Ukrainians a false sense of security/superiority before Russia shows their actual hand. But as this goes on and it seems Russia's military is not as strong or tactical as expected* the more I just find it puzzling.
*A sentiment I get namely due to info from the thread below, my TLDR being Russia's army is green or only faced weak opposition, not intrinsically motivated and used to doing special ops not wars while Ukrainian's army is battle hardened (6x 60k served in Donbass) and defending their homes. To be noted, if true it doesn't make the situation less volatile - a losing and cornered paper tiger with access thermobaric weapons or tactical nukes seems most dangerous to me. Or not, but if it is I'm getting nervous we (West/NATO) removed them the option to retreat by obliterating their financial system.
0: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
Is it because they're hard to take out or is it a strategic decision? I was initially thinking it must be a voluntary omission, some kind of psyop to get Ukrainians a false sense of security/superiority before Russia shows their actual hand. But as this goes on and it seems Russia's military is not as strong or tactical as expected* the more I just find it puzzling.
*A sentiment I get namely due to info from the thread below, my TLDR being Russia's army is green or only faced weak opposition, not intrinsically motivated and used to doing special ops not wars while Ukrainian's army is battle hardened (6x 60k served in Donbass) and defending their homes. To be noted, if true it doesn't make the situation less volatile - a losing and cornered paper tiger with access thermobaric weapons or tactical nukes seems most dangerous to me. Or not, but if it is I'm getting nervous we (West/NATO) removed them the option to retreat by obliterating their financial system.
0: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
Starlink is available: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/elon-musk-starlink-...
Not sure how easily accessible this is to the average citizen but it surely makes it hard to shut down the internet entirely.
Not sure how easily accessible this is to the average citizen but it surely makes it hard to shut down the internet entirely.
It's unclear if star link is really available yet. As I understand it, the terrestrial stations were just shipped out over the weekend. Hopefully they can start using them soon.
I doubt the average citizen will be able to use them, as I'm sure the military uses will have first dibs.
I doubt the average citizen will be able to use them, as I'm sure the military uses will have first dibs.
I wonder if the US could or does conduct direct drone warfare in the Ukraine in secret. With strong end to end encryption, it doesn't seem like it'd be that difficult. The Ukraine could just claim they are operating US made drones.
I hope not. I do not like the prospect of a Russian vs USA war and that we would have if the US do that.
I certainly don't want that either. That's why I think if the US is directly involved, it would be in secret.
> Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public.
TikTok is world's biggest intel dragnet. On Twitter, I see a vid of the column from TikTak, and 1-2 hours after, of its destruction.
No military in the world has anything as powerful.
TikTok is world's biggest intel dragnet. On Twitter, I see a vid of the column from TikTak, and 1-2 hours after, of its destruction.
No military in the world has anything as powerful.
>Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance.
Oh ya, drones, awacs, satellites. Every step by every russian solider is recorded.
Whereas Russia has to track literally everyone? General mobilization means everyone is your enemy.
Then you have the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on. Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. Behind every bush is a navy seal... id shit my pants as well.
Oh ya, drones, awacs, satellites. Every step by every russian solider is recorded.
Whereas Russia has to track literally everyone? General mobilization means everyone is your enemy.
Then you have the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on. Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. Behind every bush is a navy seal... id shit my pants as well.
> the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on.
Are you saying there are U.S. military combat forces actively engaged on the ground inside Ukraine? I find this extremely difficult to believe. I could believe that there are a handful of U.S. intelligence advisors relaying satellite comms inside Ukrainian military HQ. It's also plausible that there are a small number of private contractors (ala Blackwater) on the ground in Ukraine.
Do you have any evidence to support active combat engagement of U.S. military forces?
Are you saying there are U.S. military combat forces actively engaged on the ground inside Ukraine? I find this extremely difficult to believe. I could believe that there are a handful of U.S. intelligence advisors relaying satellite comms inside Ukrainian military HQ. It's also plausible that there are a small number of private contractors (ala Blackwater) on the ground in Ukraine.
Do you have any evidence to support active combat engagement of U.S. military forces?
Proxy war means no boots on the ground. The two of you agree.
> Proxy war means no boots on the ground. The two of you agree
To be fair, most actual “proxy wars” (e.g., during the Cold War) have also involved covertly-inserted forces from whichever (including both, where that was the case) of the two superpowers wasn't overtly involved.
To be fair, most actual “proxy wars” (e.g., during the Cold War) have also involved covertly-inserted forces from whichever (including both, where that was the case) of the two superpowers wasn't overtly involved.
>" Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. "
From what I saw their morale is pretty much destroyed already. It was probably never there to begin with except maybe special forces.
From what I saw their morale is pretty much destroyed already. It was probably never there to begin with except maybe special forces.
Maybe it is because I am not a soldier, but I would need a pretty strong reason to fight a war. One that really makes me want to fight.
Even if you factor in Russian nationalism I doubt that many russian soldiers really believe their involvment in Ukraine helps their country.
Even if you factor in Russian nationalism I doubt that many russian soldiers really believe their involvment in Ukraine helps their country.
Not many, but there are some who do believe it. Check out my other post https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30497688 . It's opnions that are held by some chunk of russian population.
>Behind every bush is a navy seal
If there are Americans engaged in Ukraine, this would imply that his nuclear deterrent is hollow, right?
It sounds good in a way, if nobody is prepared to blow up the world.
But if there is no assumption that anyone will, then where does escalation stop?
If there are Americans engaged in Ukraine, this would imply that his nuclear deterrent is hollow, right?
It sounds good in a way, if nobody is prepared to blow up the world.
But if there is no assumption that anyone will, then where does escalation stop?
Did you read the report that you posted? Russia is not losing, they are behind, and probably planned poorly/underestimated the fighting but unless things drastically change with NATO, they will cut off large parts of ukrainian defenses and eventually take the population centers. Its crazy I want Ukraine to hold out, I want Ukraine to drive them out, and if you look at reddit, and some twitter accounts you might even think Ukraine is winning, but I don't think thats whats happening.
You're right that the hopeful propaganda is giving a distorted view of the dire situation. Combined with the fact that the Russians don't carry their phones to show their victories.
Apparently RT expected to announce the capture of Kyiv on the morning of the 26's. Every moment Kyiv holds is an indication by what scale Putin's party has miscalculated.
Apparently RT expected to announce the capture of Kyiv on the morning of the 26's. Every moment Kyiv holds is an indication by what scale Putin's party has miscalculated.
I think that propaganda is important, but I also trust this report as a fair assessment of what is actually happening
You mean a bit like when you read the New York Times and thought Hillary was winning?
Russia's military is acting restrained: no carpet bombing, no massive rocket strikes on population centers. I have no doubt that they will eventually capture their targets, it will just take time. Partisan war follows however, and sanctions remain in place.
They may have some problems in getting less restrained though in that the west would probably up the level of support to Ukraine. You can't carpet bomb if all your bombers are shot down.
> Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense.
I‘m curious, like what for example?
I‘m curious, like what for example?
Russia has no choice but to go all in with a massive ground presence and air control.
This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions.
The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate.
Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both.
With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years.
When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky.
History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished.
Not a good closing chapter, Putin.
This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions.
The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate.
Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both.
With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years.
When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky.
History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished.
Not a good closing chapter, Putin.
IMO this will make-or-break based on air superiority.
Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED.
Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need.
As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase.
Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces.
I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight.
The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power.
I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine.
Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah.
Russia had two military hopes:
1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.)
2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.
Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED.
Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need.
As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase.
Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces.
I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight.
The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power.
I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine.
Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah.
Russia had two military hopes:
1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.)
2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.
Air war doesn't really go unless you mean TU160 shooting cruise missles from far away.
In reality Ukraine got a bunch of stingers in last few months. It seems to use it rather effectively to bring down planes and helicopters (saw today at morning video of couple of russian planes shot down). Also russia failed to knock off air defenses. Additionally there is a bunch of BUK/Panzir systems that russian solders left on a roads (saw a few videos) that probably will be repurposed
And last point, russian air force it's not exactly modern air force with guided bombs. It's just good old carpet bombing
In reality Ukraine got a bunch of stingers in last few months. It seems to use it rather effectively to bring down planes and helicopters (saw today at morning video of couple of russian planes shot down). Also russia failed to knock off air defenses. Additionally there is a bunch of BUK/Panzir systems that russian solders left on a roads (saw a few videos) that probably will be repurposed
And last point, russian air force it's not exactly modern air force with guided bombs. It's just good old carpet bombing
Your last point surprises me. Aren't they one of the few remaining "Nth generation" fighter supply countries? I get they won't have all the bells and whistles of the US, but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs? That's 1990s tech for the US.
Russia should have a "modern air force" for some approximation of "modern". If they don't, well, this is a bizarre offensive.
I've read that Putin looks like he's aged 10 years in the last year or so, and people speculating he has cancer. This offensive seems poorly timed, rushed, and foolish. Like a dying autocrat's last stab.
Russia should have a "modern air force" for some approximation of "modern". If they don't, well, this is a bizarre offensive.
I've read that Putin looks like he's aged 10 years in the last year or so, and people speculating he has cancer. This offensive seems poorly timed, rushed, and foolish. Like a dying autocrat's last stab.
>Aren't they one of the few remaining "Nth generation" fighter supply countries?
boutique models :) Also if you will check news carefully, they don't really sell anything to anybody
>but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs?
probably have some limited quantity. Like 1/10th of what Israel has, in best case. They simply do not have tech or manufacturing capability to mass produce stuff. Most of things is for show. Navigators on their strategic bombers use scale ruler (there was on russian news segment about military greatness of TU160 and they by accident showed it)
boutique models :) Also if you will check news carefully, they don't really sell anything to anybody
>but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs?
probably have some limited quantity. Like 1/10th of what Israel has, in best case. They simply do not have tech or manufacturing capability to mass produce stuff. Most of things is for show. Navigators on their strategic bombers use scale ruler (there was on russian news segment about military greatness of TU160 and they by accident showed it)
> I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace
This is an important consideration. Already, EU is not reluctant to pour weapons into the region.
This is an important consideration. Already, EU is not reluctant to pour weapons into the region.
That they're supplying weapons and vehicles for the first time speaks volumes. Germany reverses its "no lethal aid" policy and Sweden and Finland talk about getting closer to, if not joining, NATO.
Putin seems to have galvanized the rest of Europe against him. I doubt that's what he wanted.
Putin seems to have galvanized the rest of Europe against him. I doubt that's what he wanted.
Finland is on a fast-track to joining NATO now, a referendum immediately collected the required signatures and will now be brought to parliament.
Also Finland gave permission for Germany to supply some cannons to Ukraine, and Finnish news said we also donate 2000 combat helmets and vests and two field hospitals.
Also Finland gave permission for Germany to supply some cannons to Ukraine, and Finnish news said we also donate 2000 combat helmets and vests and two field hospitals.
Finland may ask for admittance, but is there any evidence NATO will let them in? After all, Ukraine also asked for admittance.
Finland would be let in. Ukraine was disqualified by already being in military disputes over Donbass and other stuff. I'm not sure Finland joining would make any practical difference - it would be mostly symbolic. NATO is basically limited to peaceful democracies. Turkey was a bit of an edge case.
sweden decided to send weapons yesterday (sunday)
5000 AT4 and some other stuff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4
Unfortunately no NLAWS. =(
edit: source (in swedish): https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till...
5000 AT4 and some other stuff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4
Unfortunately no NLAWS. =(
edit: source (in swedish): https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till...
Russia just now is claiming air superiority. How much of that is propaganda to bolster spirits of ground troops is questionable.
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1498196443865452545?s=21
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1498196443865452545?s=21
Air superiority is "a larger/better air force than one's enemies". Yeah sure - Ukraine isn't going to be bombing Moscow any time soon. It doesn't mean they don't have missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft though.
All Russian claims should be completely dismissed. Every single thing they've published about the attack so far has been proven lies.
To be fair that should count for both sides. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt.
I, for one, have a hard time believing the 4k Russian casualties claimed by Ukraine.
I, for one, have a hard time believing the 4k Russian casualties claimed by Ukraine.
Why? It seems in line with everything. The chechens retreat immediately because they’re drone striked with no support. The major cities repel all attacks. Entire paratrooper planes shot down.
Ukraine basically had zero air presence to begin with.
I'm no expert, but I suspect tanks work better on frozen ground than muddy ground.
I can see that, basically a blitzkrieg. But if it doesn't work, you have an invading army bogged down surrounded by a population that's getting armed to the teeth and hates you, and every motion/position/point of rest is watched and communicated.
One of the tricks of an army besieging something is to constantly attack and not let the defenders rest. I would say with good internet intelligence and a very motivated and armed populace, insurgency could do the opposite to the russians here: deny them sleep, deny them warmth, and destroy their ability to fight.
That's not just "bad morale": bad morale is a rational influence on conscious thought. With enough sleep deprivation there is no military discipline, no will to fight or follow orders.
If you are a defender with the back against the wall, that can strangely motivate you. If you're a Russian young adult freezing in the cold and pissed off over an obviously frivolous war, it makes for despair.
If the Ukraine and NATO were smart, they'd setup and advertise a POW camp in Greece on the beach. Surrender? We're sending you to a vacation.
Ukraine is a weird situation. They are RIGHT NEXT DOOR to the EU. This isn't like supplying Afghanistan rebels from 4000 miles away. Russia has no idea what resources will be supplied from the EU, what capabilities will be granted on any given day.
When will the US start providing drones? Will the US supply a huge drone fleet remotely operated from the US, and conduct night bombing operations when it is daytime in the US? Then just hand off daytime operations to the EU?
If the US/EU do that with sufficient numbers of drones, then conventional air superiority (my fighters are unthreatened) doesn't protect the ground troops, and the ground troops are toast.
One of the tricks of an army besieging something is to constantly attack and not let the defenders rest. I would say with good internet intelligence and a very motivated and armed populace, insurgency could do the opposite to the russians here: deny them sleep, deny them warmth, and destroy their ability to fight.
That's not just "bad morale": bad morale is a rational influence on conscious thought. With enough sleep deprivation there is no military discipline, no will to fight or follow orders.
If you are a defender with the back against the wall, that can strangely motivate you. If you're a Russian young adult freezing in the cold and pissed off over an obviously frivolous war, it makes for despair.
If the Ukraine and NATO were smart, they'd setup and advertise a POW camp in Greece on the beach. Surrender? We're sending you to a vacation.
Ukraine is a weird situation. They are RIGHT NEXT DOOR to the EU. This isn't like supplying Afghanistan rebels from 4000 miles away. Russia has no idea what resources will be supplied from the EU, what capabilities will be granted on any given day.
When will the US start providing drones? Will the US supply a huge drone fleet remotely operated from the US, and conduct night bombing operations when it is daytime in the US? Then just hand off daytime operations to the EU?
If the US/EU do that with sufficient numbers of drones, then conventional air superiority (my fighters are unthreatened) doesn't protect the ground troops, and the ground troops are toast.
Not a good closing chapter indeed.
Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions.
Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion.
There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen.
It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine.
This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.
Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions.
Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion.
There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen.
It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine.
This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.
> Neither will installing a puppet regime
This has already failed previously. No doubt it will not hold now, after the invasion.
This has already failed previously. No doubt it will not hold now, after the invasion.
> closing chapter
I wonder if Putin knows he's terminally ill and is just burning it all down because he's a madman.
Brain tumor? Pancreatic cancer? (Why not both?)
I wonder if Putin knows he's terminally ill and is just burning it all down because he's a madman.
Brain tumor? Pancreatic cancer? (Why not both?)
him been terminally ill, been circulating for a bunch of years.
but plan was to get into history books as great unifier of russia that brought all the misplaced and mislead countries back
Weird, I was wondering the same thing today. This action seems like a hail mary intended to secure a legacy.
There is certainly a factor of ego at play, but the more obvious reason is that Russia will fail both economically and strategically if Ukraine integrates with Europe, and the demography of Russia won't allow them to fight a human war within
the decade.
the rumor i heard is MS.
This is original https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20...
It does look that assumption was just to march in with no or little resistance, take over entire country in 2 days as then manage area with rosgvardia.
On additional note, this book supposedly popular in upper echelons of Russia and written by somebody who considered to be guru of putin. wiki article has short summary, but it's enough to see how it reflects some of the current realities (in Ukraine, Georgia, UK, USA). Wiki artcile has a good summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics