Russia's Only “Winning Move”(usni.org)
usni.org
Russia's Only “Winning Move”
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/february/russias-only-winning-move
108 comments
>They don't necessarily want the best outcome for them.
It is self-serving and dangerous to ascribe irrationality to behavior that is out of the norm from our perspective. The problem is that in many cases, what we deem as irrational behavior is simply behavior predicated from different beliefs or different values. How Putin evaluates different outcomes for Russia is likely to be very different than that from a western context. Our strategy to avoid a nuclear war must be in light of our assessment of his beliefs and values, and an analysis of how he will maximize Russia's outcome from that perspective.
If our policy is one of complete Russian retreat, and we reason from our context that escalating to nuclear weapons to secure victory is irrational, we're all but assuring an eventual nuclear confrontation with Russia. The only way to surely avoid nuclear war is to allow Russia an avenue to some kind of victory in Ukraine using only conventional weapons. We want to severely raise the cost of this victory, but at the same time we should accept the outcome if Russia is willing to pay it. If our policy is such that the choice is left to Russia to either go nuclear or completely withdraw, it will just represent the complete recklessness that our policy towards Russia continues to be.
It is self-serving and dangerous to ascribe irrationality to behavior that is out of the norm from our perspective. The problem is that in many cases, what we deem as irrational behavior is simply behavior predicated from different beliefs or different values. How Putin evaluates different outcomes for Russia is likely to be very different than that from a western context. Our strategy to avoid a nuclear war must be in light of our assessment of his beliefs and values, and an analysis of how he will maximize Russia's outcome from that perspective.
If our policy is one of complete Russian retreat, and we reason from our context that escalating to nuclear weapons to secure victory is irrational, we're all but assuring an eventual nuclear confrontation with Russia. The only way to surely avoid nuclear war is to allow Russia an avenue to some kind of victory in Ukraine using only conventional weapons. We want to severely raise the cost of this victory, but at the same time we should accept the outcome if Russia is willing to pay it. If our policy is such that the choice is left to Russia to either go nuclear or completely withdraw, it will just represent the complete recklessness that our policy towards Russia continues to be.
>If our policy is such that the choice is left to Russia to either go nuclear or completely withdraw, it will just represent the complete recklessness that our policy towards Russia continues to be.
If complete withdraw is off the table, then the game is every 10 or so years we will go through this cycle of land grabs by Russia, backed by historical revisionism and nuclear weapons - even with bad results in conventional warfare.
This started with 1 region in Georgia 2008, it's 2022 and i's already a total of 4 HUGE regions - with the promise of more in Ukraine and Moldova.
Where and when will it stop?
If complete withdraw is off the table, then the game is every 10 or so years we will go through this cycle of land grabs by Russia, backed by historical revisionism and nuclear weapons - even with bad results in conventional warfare.
This started with 1 region in Georgia 2008, it's 2022 and i's already a total of 4 HUGE regions - with the promise of more in Ukraine and Moldova.
Where and when will it stop?
>then the game is every 10 or so years we will go through this cycle of land grabs by Russia
This isn't obviously true. Different regions will be valued differently by Russia in terms of control. It is clear that Ukraine is of supreme importance to Putin in terms of geography and cultural ties. If we raise the cost of victory in Ukraine to the point where that cost is higher than the anticipated benefit of occupying the next state, it is possible to prevent any further expansion. I believe we are well past that point in Ukraine. The assumption that any victory in Ukraine for Putin will inevitably result in further expansive attempts is a convenient narrative but doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
>Where and when will it stop?
If nothing else it stops at NATO's border. The fact is, the stability we've seen over the last 30 years is entirely due to the unquestioned dominance of the U.S. in the international sphere and the relative weakness of the next powerful nations. That era is coming to an end. If the current borders are unstable in light of current international power dynamics, they should not be defended at the threat of world war 3. The question is whether the U.S. can come to accept a world order not entirely driven by U.S. interests without fighting a world war over it.
This isn't obviously true. Different regions will be valued differently by Russia in terms of control. It is clear that Ukraine is of supreme importance to Putin in terms of geography and cultural ties. If we raise the cost of victory in Ukraine to the point where that cost is higher than the anticipated benefit of occupying the next state, it is possible to prevent any further expansion. I believe we are well past that point in Ukraine. The assumption that any victory in Ukraine for Putin will inevitably result in further expansive attempts is a convenient narrative but doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
>Where and when will it stop?
If nothing else it stops at NATO's border. The fact is, the stability we've seen over the last 30 years is entirely due to the unquestioned dominance of the U.S. in the international sphere and the relative weakness of the next powerful nations. That era is coming to an end. If the current borders are unstable in light of current international power dynamics, they should not be defended at the threat of world war 3. The question is whether the U.S. can come to accept a world order not entirely driven by U.S. interests without fighting a world war over it.
Cooperating with criminals only empowers the criminals and neuters the law. Give up a square inch, and the cartel gangs, Putin and Semion Mogilevich among the most criminal, will take Every. Last. Square. Mile.
Truisms from interpersonal relationships are counterproductive when it comes to engaging with nuclear adversaries.
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> If we raise the cost of victory in Ukraine to the point where that cost is higher than the anticipated benefit of occupying the next state, it is possible to prevent any further expansion
Which costs are you talking about? Unlike the west, Russia clearly doesn't measure those costs in dollars or human lives.
Which costs are you talking about? Unlike the west, Russia clearly doesn't measure those costs in dollars or human lives.
This is the kind of self-serving narrative I'm talking about. Of course he values cost in dollars and human lives, at least in part. But he's certainly willing to sacrifice more dollars and lives to achieve his objective in Ukraine than is conceivable from our western sensibilities. Aside from dollars and lives, there is economic stability, current and future security, political stability at home, and so on.
> there is economic stability, current and future security, political stability at home, and so on.
Did any of those improve after 2014 invasion? Did any of those improve after 2022 invasion?
Again, you're trying to present him as this rational actor that shares western values. He does not.
Obviously they are not completely irrelevant. But they are nice to have. Not nice enough to convince him to change course.
Did any of those improve after 2014 invasion? Did any of those improve after 2022 invasion?
Again, you're trying to present him as this rational actor that shares western values. He does not.
Obviously they are not completely irrelevant. But they are nice to have. Not nice enough to convince him to change course.
>Again, you're trying to present him as this rational actor that shares western values.
I'm literally doing the opposite (re: western values). What I'm saying is not to assume he's an inhuman creature whose behavior is wholly unintelligible to us.
I'm literally doing the opposite (re: western values). What I'm saying is not to assume he's an inhuman creature whose behavior is wholly unintelligible to us.
> The assumption that any victory in Ukraine for Putin will inevitably result in further expansive attempts is a convenient narrative but doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
Well we things differently then. From what I see the rhetoric remains: to have Ukraine under Russian control, and all actions point in that direction. So I'd say, so far, it's holding up.
> If nothing else it stops at NATO's border.
Well, then the message is clear - join NATO or you risk being gobbled until it's borders, since that's the new limit. I don't think that's much of a game to be played in 2022. Plus it won't stop any World War, history has shown in the past what territorial concessions to expansionist leads to.
> That era is coming to an end.
I not sure if that's straight forward, and I'm not seeing many wanting to play with Russia in the split you're talking about, especially after these events. And to leave the weak at the will of an expansionist nation doesn't seem like much of world to be part of.
Well we things differently then. From what I see the rhetoric remains: to have Ukraine under Russian control, and all actions point in that direction. So I'd say, so far, it's holding up.
> If nothing else it stops at NATO's border.
Well, then the message is clear - join NATO or you risk being gobbled until it's borders, since that's the new limit. I don't think that's much of a game to be played in 2022. Plus it won't stop any World War, history has shown in the past what territorial concessions to expansionist leads to.
> That era is coming to an end.
I not sure if that's straight forward, and I'm not seeing many wanting to play with Russia in the split you're talking about, especially after these events. And to leave the weak at the will of an expansionist nation doesn't seem like much of world to be part of.
> And to leave the weak at the will of an expansionist nation doesn't seem like much of world to be part of.
Is there any limit to how much you would escalate a war with Russia to defend the weak?
It's interesting that we are having this discussion about Ukraine, justifying a military response based on how morally wrong it was for Putin to start this war, while Ethopia and Sudan are fighting each other and nobody cares.
I assume that Western governments care about Ukraine because it is strategically important to them. It seems that self-interest is ultimately more important than morality in geopolitics.
Is there any limit to how much you would escalate a war with Russia to defend the weak?
It's interesting that we are having this discussion about Ukraine, justifying a military response based on how morally wrong it was for Putin to start this war, while Ethopia and Sudan are fighting each other and nobody cares.
I assume that Western governments care about Ukraine because it is strategically important to them. It seems that self-interest is ultimately more important than morality in geopolitics.
Of course it's not about morals. But Russia does see the west and US specifically as their major enemy. And morals are a good way to justify your strategic interests.
So yeah, it is strategically important for the West that Russia loses. Because the end goal of Russia is not Ukraine. It's revanchism.
So yeah, it is strategically important for the West that Russia loses. Because the end goal of Russia is not Ukraine. It's revanchism.
You're talking too high-falutin for me! Major enemy, justify, revanchism - people don't want to die for those words, words I consider to be propaganda words.
What are the people running Russia really afraid of? I assume they've been feeling existentially threatened, their boarders being indefensible, centuries of being invaded repeatedly across the open plains, declining economy and demographics, etc. Putin rolled the dice trying to take more of Ukraine, on his way towards defensible mountain passes, and it hasn't gone well for him. The real motivation is not revanchism, it's strategic. Countries come and go, sometimes disappearing. Russia is in decline, and they are doing what they think will improve their situation.
What are the people running the West afraid of? I assume they'd rather arm Ukrainians and have them die fighting Russians, in order to avoid having Western Europe possibly be involved first-hand in a war. Better that Ukrainians die than Westerners. The US is not existentially threatened, but we feel that it is in our interests to be involved in this war, as opposed to others that we don't care about.
I agree with what you said that it is strategically important for the West that Russia loses, but I wonder if I look at it more cynically than you do. I guess I'd be happier if people recognized that states are usually selfish more than moral, and often hypocrites.
What are the people running Russia really afraid of? I assume they've been feeling existentially threatened, their boarders being indefensible, centuries of being invaded repeatedly across the open plains, declining economy and demographics, etc. Putin rolled the dice trying to take more of Ukraine, on his way towards defensible mountain passes, and it hasn't gone well for him. The real motivation is not revanchism, it's strategic. Countries come and go, sometimes disappearing. Russia is in decline, and they are doing what they think will improve their situation.
What are the people running the West afraid of? I assume they'd rather arm Ukrainians and have them die fighting Russians, in order to avoid having Western Europe possibly be involved first-hand in a war. Better that Ukrainians die than Westerners. The US is not existentially threatened, but we feel that it is in our interests to be involved in this war, as opposed to others that we don't care about.
I agree with what you said that it is strategically important for the West that Russia loses, but I wonder if I look at it more cynically than you do. I guess I'd be happier if people recognized that states are usually selfish more than moral, and often hypocrites.
> What are the people running Russia really afraid of?
Democracy.
> Better that Ukrainians die than Westerners.
The west is saving Ukrainian lives at the moment. Not "sort of" - the aid is actually stopping Russia's ethnic cleansing.
They find mass graves of tortured civilians in each liberated town.
Western soldiers in Ukraine would escalate the war.
> What are the people running the West afraid of?
Russian military.
Democracy.
> Better that Ukrainians die than Westerners.
The west is saving Ukrainian lives at the moment. Not "sort of" - the aid is actually stopping Russia's ethnic cleansing.
They find mass graves of tortured civilians in each liberated town.
Western soldiers in Ukraine would escalate the war.
> What are the people running the West afraid of?
Russian military.
> Democracy
I don't think avoiding democracy is the reason that Russia invaded Ukraine. How are the two related?
I assume they attempted to seize Ukraine in an attempt to better their strategic military and economic position.
> The west is saving Ukrainian lives at the moment.
I don't think that saving Ukrainian lives is the reason that the West is supporting Ukraine. In fact, our support of Ukraine has probably caused many Ukranians to die in the short term. If we wanted to save Ukrainian lives we would have told them to surrender.
> Russian military
I agree with you that the West is afraid of the Russian military. That's why we are involved. Not because of morals, not to save Ukrainian lives.
I don't think avoiding democracy is the reason that Russia invaded Ukraine. How are the two related?
I assume they attempted to seize Ukraine in an attempt to better their strategic military and economic position.
> The west is saving Ukrainian lives at the moment.
I don't think that saving Ukrainian lives is the reason that the West is supporting Ukraine. In fact, our support of Ukraine has probably caused many Ukranians to die in the short term. If we wanted to save Ukrainian lives we would have told them to surrender.
> Russian military
I agree with you that the West is afraid of the Russian military. That's why we are involved. Not because of morals, not to save Ukrainian lives.
>What are the people running Russia really afraid of?
Putin seems to be afraid of losing his grip on Russian governance, and a Ukraine closer to the west means Russians will have yet another ex soviet state thrive and be modernized. For how long has Ukraine been stomped by Russia?
And you can see this in all of his address, talking about the GREATNESS of Russia - greatness shouldn't be preached, it usually shows in their sphere of influence. And Russia had the resources to actually be a great power - they're sandwiched between the largest trading block in the world, and a country on a crazy growth trajectory.
No one wants to invade Russia.
Maybe the reality of the narrative of the "West never wanted to play with Russia", is probably that after what Putin did in Chechnya he set the tone for future relationships. The US has also done some wrong doing, like he constantly reminds us to try to justify the validity of his actions, but at least the US leadership is renewed - we're stuck with Putin.
So this clearly isn't about being invaded. Those days of "open plain fields will allow them to march to the doors of Moscow" are long, long gone. That's his excuse.
This event seems to point at an attempt of Putin to remain in power. Even the narrative of him being the more moderate actor, while all the others preach for nuclear war is obvious, and a foreign enemy... where Russians used to take vacations, and the governance sent their children to study... That's why the next decades will be of absurdity.
>What are the people running the West afraid of?
Of a warmonger neighbor. Don't fool yourself: I'm pretty sure if they could intervene to end this rather fast, they would.
Don't forget that the west has been providing weapons with tech from the 80's, 90's and early 2000's... the closest thing to modern hardware are drones... an actually participation of Western countries would end this conflict fast. Of course there would be casualties, but the retreat to Russian borders in sight, it would be fast.
Putin seems to be afraid of losing his grip on Russian governance, and a Ukraine closer to the west means Russians will have yet another ex soviet state thrive and be modernized. For how long has Ukraine been stomped by Russia?
And you can see this in all of his address, talking about the GREATNESS of Russia - greatness shouldn't be preached, it usually shows in their sphere of influence. And Russia had the resources to actually be a great power - they're sandwiched between the largest trading block in the world, and a country on a crazy growth trajectory.
No one wants to invade Russia.
Maybe the reality of the narrative of the "West never wanted to play with Russia", is probably that after what Putin did in Chechnya he set the tone for future relationships. The US has also done some wrong doing, like he constantly reminds us to try to justify the validity of his actions, but at least the US leadership is renewed - we're stuck with Putin.
So this clearly isn't about being invaded. Those days of "open plain fields will allow them to march to the doors of Moscow" are long, long gone. That's his excuse.
This event seems to point at an attempt of Putin to remain in power. Even the narrative of him being the more moderate actor, while all the others preach for nuclear war is obvious, and a foreign enemy... where Russians used to take vacations, and the governance sent their children to study... That's why the next decades will be of absurdity.
>What are the people running the West afraid of?
Of a warmonger neighbor. Don't fool yourself: I'm pretty sure if they could intervene to end this rather fast, they would.
Don't forget that the west has been providing weapons with tech from the 80's, 90's and early 2000's... the closest thing to modern hardware are drones... an actually participation of Western countries would end this conflict fast. Of course there would be casualties, but the retreat to Russian borders in sight, it would be fast.
> Ethopia and Sudan are fighting each other and nobody cares.
This is not a "border skirmish" with some AKs being fired.
The amount of equipment and manpower Russia has directed to Ukraine is larger than most of the world's militaries, except US and China.
Their losses of main battle tanks as of today correspond to 1/3 of the total number of US tanks, and more than the total number of tanks in western Europe.
Russia's casualties are now larger than the total US casualties during the Vietnam war.
The 800000 artillery shells in aid, correspond to 5000-10000 truckloads being delivered from neighbouring Nato countries.
Civilian Ukrainian casualties are in the tens of thousands, and counting.
This is not a "border skirmish" with some AKs being fired.
The amount of equipment and manpower Russia has directed to Ukraine is larger than most of the world's militaries, except US and China.
Their losses of main battle tanks as of today correspond to 1/3 of the total number of US tanks, and more than the total number of tanks in western Europe.
Russia's casualties are now larger than the total US casualties during the Vietnam war.
The 800000 artillery shells in aid, correspond to 5000-10000 truckloads being delivered from neighbouring Nato countries.
Civilian Ukrainian casualties are in the tens of thousands, and counting.
I think that we agree. The US is not helping Ukraine because they are weak, they are helping Ukraine because Russia is a large threat to our allies, trade partners, energy markets, etc.
I brought up the other conflict as a way of showing that we don't prioritize helping the weak. Other factors are more important.
I brought up the other conflict as a way of showing that we don't prioritize helping the weak. Other factors are more important.
Nah, no need to leave them even the slightest morsel of victory. Just look at Afghanistan - both of the world's two largest nuclear militaries have invaded, both left in defeat, and both realized that escalating to nuclear weapons would cause them more harm than good.
If Russia dropped a tactical nuke, the U.S. would have to retaliate with one as well to make it clear that we are willing to. Letting them doubt our deterrence capability would be even more risky, and they know that.
If Russia dropped a tactical nuke, the U.S. would have to retaliate with one as well to make it clear that we are willing to. Letting them doubt our deterrence capability would be even more risky, and they know that.
What happened in Afghanistan has no bearing on what would happen in a war next door. We risked a hot war with the USSR over missiles in Cuba. Russia may be willing to risk everything to secure some substantial victory in Ukraine.
>If Russia dropped a tactical nuke, the U.S. would have to retaliate with one as well to make it clear that we are willing to.
There is no reason that we must retaliate against Russia for a tactical nuke used in Ukraine. This in no way appears to undermine our willingness to defend NATO territories against such a strike.
What this idea does, that Russia cannot use a tactical nuke in Ukraine because of the principle of a necessary retaliation by the U.S., is negate the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place thus rendering Russia at the mercy of U.S. interests around the world. You may like this principle, but Russia may not. They may be motivated to assert their interests in Ukraine using the only remaining tools they have. They may see anything less as signaling permanent subjugation to U.S. interests. I personally have no interest in risking WW3 just to force Russia to signal subjugation to U.S. interests.
>If Russia dropped a tactical nuke, the U.S. would have to retaliate with one as well to make it clear that we are willing to.
There is no reason that we must retaliate against Russia for a tactical nuke used in Ukraine. This in no way appears to undermine our willingness to defend NATO territories against such a strike.
What this idea does, that Russia cannot use a tactical nuke in Ukraine because of the principle of a necessary retaliation by the U.S., is negate the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place thus rendering Russia at the mercy of U.S. interests around the world. You may like this principle, but Russia may not. They may be motivated to assert their interests in Ukraine using the only remaining tools they have. They may see anything less as signaling permanent subjugation to U.S. interests. I personally have no interest in risking WW3 just to force Russia to signal subjugation to U.S. interests.
> What this idea does, that Russia cannot use a tactical nuke in Ukraine because of the principle of a necessary retaliation by the U.S., is negate the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place thus rendering Russia at the mercy of U.S. interests around the world.
But that's the thing: nuclear weapons cannot be allowed to provide a strategic advantage in a conventional war of conquest, or they would be used. Russia using a nuke in a war on conquest would set a terrible precedent that cannot be allowed to stand. If they can do it with Ukraine, they can do it with Moldova, and then they can do it with any other country they choose to attack. If they have no retaliation to fear, they have no reason to hold back anymore.
I don't think NATO can afford not to retaliate in some manner. How, I don't know, but doing nothing will effectively reward the offensive use of nuclear weapons, which means it will happen more often.
But that's the thing: nuclear weapons cannot be allowed to provide a strategic advantage in a conventional war of conquest, or they would be used. Russia using a nuke in a war on conquest would set a terrible precedent that cannot be allowed to stand. If they can do it with Ukraine, they can do it with Moldova, and then they can do it with any other country they choose to attack. If they have no retaliation to fear, they have no reason to hold back anymore.
I don't think NATO can afford not to retaliate in some manner. How, I don't know, but doing nothing will effectively reward the offensive use of nuclear weapons, which means it will happen more often.
I think "NATO" will be rapidly be re-evaluated after the first nuke goes off in EU.
Think it; US won't directly attack Russia mainland, neither Russia will attack US mainland. But EU continental territories will probably be fair game for NATO.
So if a nuclear war begins nukes will only be deployed inside EU countries, that will probably lead a NATO disband and / or some countries with nukes or even conventional kinetic weaponry, just starting to directly attack Russia somehow, without US "ok".
You can't predict at this point how it is going to be played, but almost certainly, EU elites won't be happy knowing / discovering their land / cities / territories are going to be - nuclearly - taken to tabula rasa once again, and that would lead to decisions.
Think it; US won't directly attack Russia mainland, neither Russia will attack US mainland. But EU continental territories will probably be fair game for NATO.
So if a nuclear war begins nukes will only be deployed inside EU countries, that will probably lead a NATO disband and / or some countries with nukes or even conventional kinetic weaponry, just starting to directly attack Russia somehow, without US "ok".
You can't predict at this point how it is going to be played, but almost certainly, EU elites won't be happy knowing / discovering their land / cities / territories are going to be - nuclearly - taken to tabula rasa once again, and that would lead to decisions.
> So if a nuclear war begins nukes will only be deployed inside EU countries, that will probably lead a NATO disband
I really wonder why you'd possibly think that. NATO dwindles when it seems unnecessary, but as we've already seen, nothing unites NATO like a common enemy does.
Keep in mind that NATO has spent its entire existence preparing for a possible war with Russia. The moment Russia starts throwing nukes, it will get nuked by NATO. It's the very thing the NATO nuclear doctrine is designed around: retaliation if Russia ever initiates a nuclear war.
I really wonder why you'd possibly think that. NATO dwindles when it seems unnecessary, but as we've already seen, nothing unites NATO like a common enemy does.
Keep in mind that NATO has spent its entire existence preparing for a possible war with Russia. The moment Russia starts throwing nukes, it will get nuked by NATO. It's the very thing the NATO nuclear doctrine is designed around: retaliation if Russia ever initiates a nuclear war.
> I think "NATO" will be rapidly be re-evaluated after the first nuke goes off in EU.
> Think it; US won't directly attack Russia mainland
You might ask yourself some questions:
(1) Why is having multiple independent nuclear powers as members an important part of NATO’s nuclear posture.
(2) Why is the forward deployment of US troops and nuclear weapons (some slated for delivery by host-nation forces under nuclear sharing agreements) also an import part of NATO’s posture?
(3) Why is the involvement of non-nuclear members of NATO in NATO nuclear planning an important part of NATO’s nuclear posture?
NATO—including the US—isn’t going to nuke itself (most of the EU also being in NATO or in close security arrangements with it) and not Russia in response to Russia using nukes against the EU.
> Think it; US won't directly attack Russia mainland
You might ask yourself some questions:
(1) Why is having multiple independent nuclear powers as members an important part of NATO’s nuclear posture.
(2) Why is the forward deployment of US troops and nuclear weapons (some slated for delivery by host-nation forces under nuclear sharing agreements) also an import part of NATO’s posture?
(3) Why is the involvement of non-nuclear members of NATO in NATO nuclear planning an important part of NATO’s nuclear posture?
NATO—including the US—isn’t going to nuke itself (most of the EU also being in NATO or in close security arrangements with it) and not Russia in response to Russia using nukes against the EU.
>But that's the thing: nuclear weapons cannot be allowed to provide a strategic advantage in a conventional war of conquest
I don't know what this means other than we will fight a nuclear war to prevent other states from using the threat of nuclear weapons to secure their interests. But this is just unintelligible to me.
> If they have no retaliation to fear, they have no reason to hold back anymore.
We can demonstrate, and have, a massive increased cost to such incursions. But some nations may choose to pay that cost some of the time if they calculate the benefit is sufficient. The only way to prevent this is nuclear war. It is absolutely not worth it to maintain the stability of the current border configuration.
I don't know what this means other than we will fight a nuclear war to prevent other states from using the threat of nuclear weapons to secure their interests. But this is just unintelligible to me.
> If they have no retaliation to fear, they have no reason to hold back anymore.
We can demonstrate, and have, a massive increased cost to such incursions. But some nations may choose to pay that cost some of the time if they calculate the benefit is sufficient. The only way to prevent this is nuclear war. It is absolutely not worth it to maintain the stability of the current border configuration.
> I don't know what this means other than we will fight a nuclear war to prevent other states from using the threat of nuclear weapons to secure their interests.
I don't really know either. There's definitely a point where nuclear escalation is going to require a nuclear response, but if a non-nuclear response is possible and proportional while still stopping Russia's ability to deploy nuclear weapons, that would of course be preferable.
There's a good reason why nobody wanted to escalate to nuclear war during the Cold War: you put the opposition in the position of either having to accept one-sided nuclear aggression, or go to full nuclear war. Both are terrible.
I don't really know either. There's definitely a point where nuclear escalation is going to require a nuclear response, but if a non-nuclear response is possible and proportional while still stopping Russia's ability to deploy nuclear weapons, that would of course be preferable.
There's a good reason why nobody wanted to escalate to nuclear war during the Cold War: you put the opposition in the position of either having to accept one-sided nuclear aggression, or go to full nuclear war. Both are terrible.
There is no reason that we must retaliate against Russia for a tactical nuke used in Ukraine.
The Budapest Memorandum suggests otherwise.
The Budapest Memorandum suggests otherwise.
> There is no reason that we must retaliate against Russia for a tactical nuke used in Ukraine.
There is—security of the Eastern flank of NATO—though it doesn’t require a nuclear response.
> What this idea does, that Russia cannot use a tactical nuke in Ukraine because of the principle of a necessary retaliation by the U.S.
That’s not the principle. The principle is that Russia cannot prosecute an unprovoked war of aggression, in which it commits an appalling array of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Direct NATO response has not been withheld short of further escalation by Russia as a matter of right or because Russia has committed insufficient provocation (on either aggression, humanitarian risk, or regional security risk calculus, Russia has far exceeded that which led to NATO intervention against Serbia or Libya) but out of desire to reserve responsive options in the event of further escalation.
> is negate the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place thus rendering Russia at the mercy of U.S. interests around the world.
The idea that other nuclear powers cannot respond militarily to aggressive use of nukes by Russia negates the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place thus rendering those powers at the mercy of Russian aggressiom around the world.
> You may like this principle, but Russia may not.
Global concern for what the current Russian regime likes is not particularly high right now, nor should it be.
> They may be motivated to assert their interests in Ukraine using the only remaining tools they have.
That is, indeed, a danger of a regime ewuipped with WMD of any kind facing conventional defeat and without the perception of its own domestic political strength to just take the L. But unless the world is prepared to allow itself to be forced into abject surrender to any aggressor willing to wave around nonconventional weapons, there needs to be a clear expectation—and demonstrated follow through should someone decide ro challenge it—that using sich weapons to rescue failing aggression will only magnify the scope of failure.
There is—security of the Eastern flank of NATO—though it doesn’t require a nuclear response.
> What this idea does, that Russia cannot use a tactical nuke in Ukraine because of the principle of a necessary retaliation by the U.S.
That’s not the principle. The principle is that Russia cannot prosecute an unprovoked war of aggression, in which it commits an appalling array of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Direct NATO response has not been withheld short of further escalation by Russia as a matter of right or because Russia has committed insufficient provocation (on either aggression, humanitarian risk, or regional security risk calculus, Russia has far exceeded that which led to NATO intervention against Serbia or Libya) but out of desire to reserve responsive options in the event of further escalation.
> is negate the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place thus rendering Russia at the mercy of U.S. interests around the world.
The idea that other nuclear powers cannot respond militarily to aggressive use of nukes by Russia negates the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place thus rendering those powers at the mercy of Russian aggressiom around the world.
> You may like this principle, but Russia may not.
Global concern for what the current Russian regime likes is not particularly high right now, nor should it be.
> They may be motivated to assert their interests in Ukraine using the only remaining tools they have.
That is, indeed, a danger of a regime ewuipped with WMD of any kind facing conventional defeat and without the perception of its own domestic political strength to just take the L. But unless the world is prepared to allow itself to be forced into abject surrender to any aggressor willing to wave around nonconventional weapons, there needs to be a clear expectation—and demonstrated follow through should someone decide ro challenge it—that using sich weapons to rescue failing aggression will only magnify the scope of failure.
>There is—security of the Eastern flank of NATO—though it doesn’t require a nuclear response.
The whole idea of "security of the Eastern flank of NATO" goes out the window when NATO engages in direct conflict with Russia. Your response is self-defeating.
>The principle is that Russia cannot prosecute an unprovoked war of aggression, in which it commits an appalling array of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
That's great for a tweet, but it doesn't actually outline NATO's policy towards Russia. If the goal is NATO security, our continued escalation of the proxy war is self-defeating. Moral indignation should not be the driver of foreign policy.
>The idea that other nuclear powers cannot respond militarily to aggressive use of nukes by Russia negates the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place
No, the idea is that a nuclear power inserting itself into an engagement between two parties while expecting the other party not to escalate to nuclear capabilities is undermining the strategic value of nuclear deterrence. The U.S. sitting out an engagement it was not involved in does nothing to undermine nuclear deterrence.
>But unless the world is prepared to allow itself to be forced into abject surrender to any aggressor willing to wave around nonconventional weapons
This is patently false and extremely dangerous, as I've already argued in a sibling comment.
The whole idea of "security of the Eastern flank of NATO" goes out the window when NATO engages in direct conflict with Russia. Your response is self-defeating.
>The principle is that Russia cannot prosecute an unprovoked war of aggression, in which it commits an appalling array of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
That's great for a tweet, but it doesn't actually outline NATO's policy towards Russia. If the goal is NATO security, our continued escalation of the proxy war is self-defeating. Moral indignation should not be the driver of foreign policy.
>The idea that other nuclear powers cannot respond militarily to aggressive use of nukes by Russia negates the strategic advantage of having nukes in the first place
No, the idea is that a nuclear power inserting itself into an engagement between two parties while expecting the other party not to escalate to nuclear capabilities is undermining the strategic value of nuclear deterrence. The U.S. sitting out an engagement it was not involved in does nothing to undermine nuclear deterrence.
>But unless the world is prepared to allow itself to be forced into abject surrender to any aggressor willing to wave around nonconventional weapons
This is patently false and extremely dangerous, as I've already argued in a sibling comment.
> The whole idea of “security of the Eastern flank of NATO” goes out the window when NATO engages in direct conflict with Russia.
No, actually, the whole reason collective self-defense and regional is a thing is that once someone is attacked, not fighting the aggressor can be worse for your own security than fighting them. THere’s a reason NATO Article 4 exists alongside Article 5 and has led to NATO action more than Article 5 has.
> That’s great for a tweet, but it doesn’t actually outline NATO’s policy towards Russia. If the goal is NATO security, our continued escalation of the proxy war is self-defeating.
No, the whole reason for NATO qua NATO support for Ukraine is that Russian aggression in the region is a regional security threat. Checking that aggression is by far the most important current security concern of NATO.
No, actually, the whole reason collective self-defense and regional is a thing is that once someone is attacked, not fighting the aggressor can be worse for your own security than fighting them. THere’s a reason NATO Article 4 exists alongside Article 5 and has led to NATO action more than Article 5 has.
> That’s great for a tweet, but it doesn’t actually outline NATO’s policy towards Russia. If the goal is NATO security, our continued escalation of the proxy war is self-defeating.
No, the whole reason for NATO qua NATO support for Ukraine is that Russian aggression in the region is a regional security threat. Checking that aggression is by far the most important current security concern of NATO.
>No, the whole reason for NATO qua NATO support for Ukraine is that Russian aggression in the region is a regional security threat. Checking that aggression is by far the most important current security concern of NATO.
And what are the limits to this support? At some point, the support for Ukraine creates a greater security threat to NATO than no support. Escalating the proxy war to the point where Russia's only options are to nuke or retreat is a total failure of protecting regional security. Escalating even further to direct warfare with Russia is just to dissolve any idea of NATO security. There is no rational policy here, only policy driven by moral indignation.
And what are the limits to this support? At some point, the support for Ukraine creates a greater security threat to NATO than no support. Escalating the proxy war to the point where Russia's only options are to nuke or retreat is a total failure of protecting regional security. Escalating even further to direct warfare with Russia is just to dissolve any idea of NATO security. There is no rational policy here, only policy driven by moral indignation.
> Escalating the proxy war to the point where Russia’s only options are to nuke or retreat is a total failure of protecting regional security.
Well, yes, anything where Russia perceives that using a nuke would be a viable option is a failure of regional–at least–security, which is why there has been substantial effort to make it very clear that that option is not viable for them, both through messaging, deployment of forces, etc.
Of course, should Russia use a nuke and that become a fait accompli, the same remains true going forward, which, to the point upthread, is why there must in that case be a substantial (though not necessarily nuclear, in response to a tactical nuke) response from NATO. But, before that line is crossed, communicating that that is the case is also important to avoid getting there.
Beyond that, Russia reaching the point that there only viable option is to retreat and abandon their aggression is not only a success scenario, it is the only success scenario. Everything else is some degree of failure. (Going forward, of course: retrospectively, allowing Russia to think that aggression was a viable path forward in the first place was itself a failure, but that’s the past and irreversible at this point.)
Well, yes, anything where Russia perceives that using a nuke would be a viable option is a failure of regional–at least–security, which is why there has been substantial effort to make it very clear that that option is not viable for them, both through messaging, deployment of forces, etc.
Of course, should Russia use a nuke and that become a fait accompli, the same remains true going forward, which, to the point upthread, is why there must in that case be a substantial (though not necessarily nuclear, in response to a tactical nuke) response from NATO. But, before that line is crossed, communicating that that is the case is also important to avoid getting there.
Beyond that, Russia reaching the point that there only viable option is to retreat and abandon their aggression is not only a success scenario, it is the only success scenario. Everything else is some degree of failure. (Going forward, of course: retrospectively, allowing Russia to think that aggression was a viable path forward in the first place was itself a failure, but that’s the past and irreversible at this point.)
>Well, yes, anything where Russia perceives that using a nuke would be a viable option is a failure of regional–at least–security, which is why there has been substantial effort to make it very clear that that option is not viable for them, both through messaging, deployment of forces, etc.
Yes, that is the intent. The problem is one of ensuring the message results in our desired belief-state in Putin. In reality, all we can do is be clear regarding our responses to various scenarios, and Putin will decide how he evaluates the cost of the west's responses. Putin may not evaluate the cost landscape in the manner we hope. Thus our actions may only precipitate further escalations from both sides.
>is why there must in that case be a substantial (though not necessarily nuclear, in response to a tactical nuke) response from NATO.
Why think this action itself does not start us on the road that inevitably leads to a nuclear exchange?
>Beyond that, Russia reaching the point that there only viable option is to retreat and abandon their aggression is not only a success scenario, it is the only success scenario. Everything else is some degree of failure.
This just goes to the point I made upthread, whether the U.S. can come to accept a world order not entirely driven by U.S. interests without fighting a world war over it. The era of universal success for the U.S. on the world stage is over.
Yes, that is the intent. The problem is one of ensuring the message results in our desired belief-state in Putin. In reality, all we can do is be clear regarding our responses to various scenarios, and Putin will decide how he evaluates the cost of the west's responses. Putin may not evaluate the cost landscape in the manner we hope. Thus our actions may only precipitate further escalations from both sides.
>is why there must in that case be a substantial (though not necessarily nuclear, in response to a tactical nuke) response from NATO.
Why think this action itself does not start us on the road that inevitably leads to a nuclear exchange?
>Beyond that, Russia reaching the point that there only viable option is to retreat and abandon their aggression is not only a success scenario, it is the only success scenario. Everything else is some degree of failure.
This just goes to the point I made upthread, whether the U.S. can come to accept a world order not entirely driven by U.S. interests without fighting a world war over it. The era of universal success for the U.S. on the world stage is over.
> Escalating the proxy war to the point where Russia's only options are to nuke or retreat is a total failure of protecting regional security.
So your trying to tell me, letting Ukraine force Russia out of its territories and showing them and the world that they aren’t the military ““super power”” everyone thought is _bad_ for regional security?.
What is your solution? To let Russia annex whatever territories it wants?.
So your trying to tell me, letting Ukraine force Russia out of its territories and showing them and the world that they aren’t the military ““super power”” everyone thought is _bad_ for regional security?.
What is your solution? To let Russia annex whatever territories it wants?.
>So your trying to tell me, letting Ukraine force Russia out of its territories and showing them and the world that they aren’t the military ““super power”” everyone thought is _bad_ for regional security?.
This is just nonsensical. Offer an argument, and I will be happy to engage with it.
>What is your solution? To let Russia annex whatever territories it wants?.
In a comment upthread I have specified exactly how we should respond to avoid escalating to a nuclear war while also deterring future aggressive actions. Feel free to engage intelligently with those points.
This is just nonsensical. Offer an argument, and I will be happy to engage with it.
>What is your solution? To let Russia annex whatever territories it wants?.
In a comment upthread I have specified exactly how we should respond to avoid escalating to a nuclear war while also deterring future aggressive actions. Feel free to engage intelligently with those points.
> In a comment upthread I have specified exactly how we should respond to avoid escalating to a nuclear war while also deterring future aggressive actions. Feel free to engage intelligently with those points.
> This is just nonsensical. Offer an argument, and I will be happy to engage with it.
Since you didn't link it yourself I can only assume that this is it.
> This isn't obviously true. Different regions will be valued differently by Russia in terms of control. It is clear that Ukraine is of supreme importance to Putin in terms of geography and cultural ties. If we raise the cost of victory in Ukraine to the point where that cost is higher than the anticipated benefit of occupying the next state, it is possible to prevent any further expansion. I believe we are well past that point in Ukraine. The assumption that any victory in Ukraine for Putin will inevitably result in further expansive attempts is a convenient narrative but doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
It appears your plan is to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia in hopes he doesn't do it again, this is a plan that is bound to fail as the world learnt with Hitler and the Sudetenland.
The only thing that will stop Russia having its colonial ambitions is to defeat them in such a thorough and direct way that they never think of doing it again as it would risk destabilising their country.
This is what is starting to happen in Ukraine, and what should continue to happen. The only way to stop this is force, appeasement never works.
> This is just nonsensical. Offer an argument, and I will be happy to engage with it.
Since you didn't link it yourself I can only assume that this is it.
> This isn't obviously true. Different regions will be valued differently by Russia in terms of control. It is clear that Ukraine is of supreme importance to Putin in terms of geography and cultural ties. If we raise the cost of victory in Ukraine to the point where that cost is higher than the anticipated benefit of occupying the next state, it is possible to prevent any further expansion. I believe we are well past that point in Ukraine. The assumption that any victory in Ukraine for Putin will inevitably result in further expansive attempts is a convenient narrative but doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
It appears your plan is to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia in hopes he doesn't do it again, this is a plan that is bound to fail as the world learnt with Hitler and the Sudetenland.
The only thing that will stop Russia having its colonial ambitions is to defeat them in such a thorough and direct way that they never think of doing it again as it would risk destabilising their country.
This is what is starting to happen in Ukraine, and what should continue to happen. The only way to stop this is force, appeasement never works.
>It appears your plan is to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia in hopes he doesn't do it again
This does not represent engaging intelligently with my argument.
Let's cut the crap. Is it your opinion that we should ensure Russia loses in Ukraine, up to and including a direct nuclear exchange?
This does not represent engaging intelligently with my argument.
Let's cut the crap. Is it your opinion that we should ensure Russia loses in Ukraine, up to and including a direct nuclear exchange?
> At some point, the support for Ukraine creates a greater security threat to NATO than no support
Again, this is based on assumption that Russia will stop after Ukraine. Given their rhetoric and actions in the last two decades, I see no reasons to believe that.
They've been consistently instilling hatred towards the West in their citizens. Not towards Ukraine.
Read the recent Putin's annexation speech, Ukraine was barely mentioned. It was mostly about USA, colonization, collective West, anglo-saxons, cancel culture, double standards, gay-propaganda, satanism (!).
Do you really believe this will all go away once Russia is done with Ukraine?
Again, this is based on assumption that Russia will stop after Ukraine. Given their rhetoric and actions in the last two decades, I see no reasons to believe that.
They've been consistently instilling hatred towards the West in their citizens. Not towards Ukraine.
Read the recent Putin's annexation speech, Ukraine was barely mentioned. It was mostly about USA, colonization, collective West, anglo-saxons, cancel culture, double standards, gay-propaganda, satanism (!).
Do you really believe this will all go away once Russia is done with Ukraine?
>Again, this is based on assumption that Russia will stop after Ukraine.
Just stop repeating this same nonsense. Either engage with the argument I posted up thread, or don't respond.
Just stop repeating this same nonsense. Either engage with the argument I posted up thread, or don't respond.
You keep condescendingly demanding to engage with your argument, but you haven't made one yet. "Raising the cost of victory" is extremely vague and ambiguous.
Since you're being vague and condescending at the same time, I suspect you're not arguing in good faith.
If you truly want people to engage with your argument, be specific.
Since you're being vague and condescending at the same time, I suspect you're not arguing in good faith.
If you truly want people to engage with your argument, be specific.
ruzzia propagandist is getting angry - perhaps you should go likeminded Z-forums
> If Russia dropped a tactical nuke, the U.S. would have to retaliate with one as well to make it clear that we are willing to.
No, it wouldn’t. A substantial NATO conventional response would be more sensible.
No, it wouldn’t. A substantial NATO conventional response would be more sensible.
I considered that as well but Russia would probably brush off just about any conventional response, even if it was significant like reducing Kalingrad to rubble. Adding in China fully cutting them off might get close, but there would be little way to prevent them from resuming business a few months later.
All in all, it's dangerous to let a deranged enemy think that the consequences for the use of nuclear weapons might be anything less than a nuclear response - allows them to think that it's a game of calculus that can be turned in their favor.
All in all, it's dangerous to let a deranged enemy think that the consequences for the use of nuclear weapons might be anything less than a nuclear response - allows them to think that it's a game of calculus that can be turned in their favor.
"Tactical" nukes are scary from a psychological point of view, but probably not very usable unless the aim is to kill civilians in densely populated areas, or destroy an aircraft carrier, or a military base. It's not useful against a geographically distributed army that functions like a guerilla army.
Using one of their nukes to take out a single himars is just dumb, even by Russian standards. They could burn through their stock pile in Ukraine, and still not achieve much tactical progress.
The response to using nukes on civilians probably starts with cruise missiles on Russian military targets. An escalation which Russia would eventually lose with certainty, and a final end to the "Russian Federation". This is not desirable to their leadership at all.
Using one of their nukes to take out a single himars is just dumb, even by Russian standards. They could burn through their stock pile in Ukraine, and still not achieve much tactical progress.
The response to using nukes on civilians probably starts with cruise missiles on Russian military targets. An escalation which Russia would eventually lose with certainty, and a final end to the "Russian Federation". This is not desirable to their leadership at all.
The Ukrainians will increasingly be in the mode of having to hold territory while Russia would probably be willing to call it a victory if they level the place and make it uninhabitable for anyone, so I wouldn't assume they'll even bother aiming much.
And let's say we do strike back with cruise missiles - it's unlikely to trigger Putin being overthrown. In fact, it may even convince some people on the fence that it really has been a war with the US for the survival of Russia all along. He has to retaliate so as not to appear weak, how can he reach an American target, even just an overseas base? I'm honestly not sure.
The scenario where his nuke draws one in return is just as messy with the out that it's so utterly shocking that it forces both sides to confront the fact that no one wants a nuclear war.
I really think China holds all the cards here - if they seriously threatened to cut Russia off over nukes, I don't think any get dropped. If they make wishy washy statements, there's a real chance they do.
And let's say we do strike back with cruise missiles - it's unlikely to trigger Putin being overthrown. In fact, it may even convince some people on the fence that it really has been a war with the US for the survival of Russia all along. He has to retaliate so as not to appear weak, how can he reach an American target, even just an overseas base? I'm honestly not sure.
The scenario where his nuke draws one in return is just as messy with the out that it's so utterly shocking that it forces both sides to confront the fact that no one wants a nuclear war.
I really think China holds all the cards here - if they seriously threatened to cut Russia off over nukes, I don't think any get dropped. If they make wishy washy statements, there's a real chance they do.
> The only way to surely avoid nuclear war is to allow Russia an avenue to some kind of victory in Ukraine using only conventional weapons.
That's just ruzzia propaganda parroted by their apologists all over the world. You can't get raped "a little". And be assured that ruzzia won't stop. Any concessions will only embolden them to go further to other countries. Now with the resources and people of the concurred territories. If ruzzia succeed in ANY blackmail it will keep doing it because obviously EU and US are weak. That is until it's stopped. Might as well stop them now. Just look at Crimea they occupied for 8 years, did it stop them?
That's just ruzzia propaganda parroted by their apologists all over the world. You can't get raped "a little". And be assured that ruzzia won't stop. Any concessions will only embolden them to go further to other countries. Now with the resources and people of the concurred territories. If ruzzia succeed in ANY blackmail it will keep doing it because obviously EU and US are weak. That is until it's stopped. Might as well stop them now. Just look at Crimea they occupied for 8 years, did it stop them?
It's semantics at this point. Sure, given russian values, their preference to feel proud trumps life expectancy, healthcare, wealth, technological progress, ability to travel, etc. Being misinformed and brainwashed doesn't make you rational in your delusions.
> The only way to surely avoid nuclear war is to allow Russia an avenue to some kind of victory in Ukraine
It's easy to think that when you're thousands of miles away from Russia. But there's a reason top supporters of Ukraine (in terms of GDP) are Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Czech Republic and so on.
It is not the first expansionist war Russia has started. Any "victory" Russia gains means that next war is inevitable. Hell, this is their 3rd expansion into Ukraine, and every single time they claimed it was their last. And every single time they went a little bit further than the last.
If you believe they will stop after they're done with Ukraine, that's just wishful thinking.
> The only way to surely avoid nuclear war is to allow Russia an avenue to some kind of victory in Ukraine
It's easy to think that when you're thousands of miles away from Russia. But there's a reason top supporters of Ukraine (in terms of GDP) are Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Czech Republic and so on.
It is not the first expansionist war Russia has started. Any "victory" Russia gains means that next war is inevitable. Hell, this is their 3rd expansion into Ukraine, and every single time they claimed it was their last. And every single time they went a little bit further than the last.
If you believe they will stop after they're done with Ukraine, that's just wishful thinking.
>It's semantics at this point.
No it's not semantics. The issue is whether Russia is capable of acting rationally to secure their interests as they define them given the facts on the ground and international pressure. Your personal evaluation of their value system is irrelevant to whether their behavior accords with their values and the cost landscape they are presented with.
>Any "victory" Russia gains means that next war is inevitable.
It's not inevitable. Different regions will be valued differently by Russia in terms of control. It is clear that Ukraine is of supreme importance to Putin in terms of geography and cultural ties. If we raise the cost of victory in Ukraine to the point where that cost is higher than the anticipated benefit of occupying the next state, it is possible to prevent any further expansion. I believe we are well past that point in Ukraine. The assumption that any victory in Ukraine for Putin will inevitably result in further expansive attempts is a convenient narrative but doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
No it's not semantics. The issue is whether Russia is capable of acting rationally to secure their interests as they define them given the facts on the ground and international pressure. Your personal evaluation of their value system is irrelevant to whether their behavior accords with their values and the cost landscape they are presented with.
>Any "victory" Russia gains means that next war is inevitable.
It's not inevitable. Different regions will be valued differently by Russia in terms of control. It is clear that Ukraine is of supreme importance to Putin in terms of geography and cultural ties. If we raise the cost of victory in Ukraine to the point where that cost is higher than the anticipated benefit of occupying the next state, it is possible to prevent any further expansion. I believe we are well past that point in Ukraine. The assumption that any victory in Ukraine for Putin will inevitably result in further expansive attempts is a convenient narrative but doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
> The issue is whether Russia is capable of acting rationally to secure their interests as they define them
You're missing the fact that Russia keeps redefining their interests. The word rational no longer has any meaning, because there's no way for Russia to act irrationally according to your framework. So yeah, it is semantics, we just have different meanings for word "rational". Yours seems quite useless, because in your world there's no way for anyone to be "irrational".
> It is clear that Ukraine is of supreme importance to Putin in terms of geography and cultural ties
Again, you're completely missing the point. Ukraine is of supreme importance because it's the easiest target right now, geography and cultural ties are what makes it the easiest. Once Ukraine is done, there will be next easiest target.
You're missing the fact that Russia keeps redefining their interests. The word rational no longer has any meaning, because there's no way for Russia to act irrationally according to your framework. So yeah, it is semantics, we just have different meanings for word "rational". Yours seems quite useless, because in your world there's no way for anyone to be "irrational".
> It is clear that Ukraine is of supreme importance to Putin in terms of geography and cultural ties
Again, you're completely missing the point. Ukraine is of supreme importance because it's the easiest target right now, geography and cultural ties are what makes it the easiest. Once Ukraine is done, there will be next easiest target.
>there's no way for Russia to act irrationally according to your framework.
Disagreed, it's pretty clear that the Russian position is that it would be 100% irrational to allow their biggest enemy to control Ukraine, which is essentially what happened when we meddled in Ukraine in 2014 and led to the annexation of Crimea literally the next day.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
Disagreed, it's pretty clear that the Russian position is that it would be 100% irrational to allow their biggest enemy to control Ukraine, which is essentially what happened when we meddled in Ukraine in 2014 and led to the annexation of Crimea literally the next day.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
I've listened to this audio many years ago. I know that based on the transcript it's easy to paint the narrative that US is the puppet master pulling the strings. A narrative so favored by both US and Russian citizens.
But the reality is that the sparks that lit the fire (declining to sign the EU trade deal, brutally attacking protestors, passing "dictatorship laws", etc) were completely Russian made. The reason that Russia lost control over Ukraine is Russia and Russia alone. The stupidity and yes, irrationality of their actions led them to lose all the influence they had.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan
Sometimes the girlfriend dumps you simply because you're an asshole, not because she was "stolen" from you.
And of course US tried to ride the wave after the revolution was triggered, why wouldn't they?
Also, my understanding is that noone "controls" Ukraine. US obviously has a significant influence, but that doesn't even come close to a Russian puppet president they had in the past.
But the reality is that the sparks that lit the fire (declining to sign the EU trade deal, brutally attacking protestors, passing "dictatorship laws", etc) were completely Russian made. The reason that Russia lost control over Ukraine is Russia and Russia alone. The stupidity and yes, irrationality of their actions led them to lose all the influence they had.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan
Sometimes the girlfriend dumps you simply because you're an asshole, not because she was "stolen" from you.
And of course US tried to ride the wave after the revolution was triggered, why wouldn't they?
Also, my understanding is that noone "controls" Ukraine. US obviously has a significant influence, but that doesn't even come close to a Russian puppet president they had in the past.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Euromaidan : After a small group of protesters attempted to storm the Government Building, police used tear gas to disperse them. Protesters also used tear gas and some fire crackers (according to police protesters were first to use them). According to the General Prosecutor's Office, more than 400 people were injured from 24 November to 13 December, including 200 policemen and 18 students.
The US proclaimed this kind of events on their territory as "January 6 attempted coup", and people involved are now being prosecuted by the US authorities.
> but that doesn't even come close to a Russian puppet president they had in the past
The so-called puppet president didn't break state laws when he suspended preparations for signing of the Association Agreement, yet the coup happened anyways. His prior election was also recognized and endorsed as being fair and an accurate reflection of voters' intentions by all international agencies observing the election including the OSCE and PACE [1], yet he was ousted out of the country by the armed mob who didn't care about legitimacy of their actions. Meanwhile the US Assistant Secretary of State and the US Ambassador to Ukraine were deciding who would take what roles in the new Ukrainian government.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ukrainian_presidential_el...
The US proclaimed this kind of events on their territory as "January 6 attempted coup", and people involved are now being prosecuted by the US authorities.
> but that doesn't even come close to a Russian puppet president they had in the past
The so-called puppet president didn't break state laws when he suspended preparations for signing of the Association Agreement, yet the coup happened anyways. His prior election was also recognized and endorsed as being fair and an accurate reflection of voters' intentions by all international agencies observing the election including the OSCE and PACE [1], yet he was ousted out of the country by the armed mob who didn't care about legitimacy of their actions. Meanwhile the US Assistant Secretary of State and the US Ambassador to Ukraine were deciding who would take what roles in the new Ukrainian government.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ukrainian_presidential_el...
> The US proclaimed this kind of events on their territory as "January 6 attempted coup", and people involved are now being prosecuted by the US authorities.
Yep. And if democrats were to provision laws like that in response: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-protest_laws_in_Ukraine#P...
you would not be describing this coup as "attempted" today.
> The so-called puppet president didn't break state laws
Not sure why that's relevant. As you said it yourself, he was ousted by protesters, not by Supreme Court. Breaking state laws is not the only reason for people to be upset.
Yep. And if democrats were to provision laws like that in response: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-protest_laws_in_Ukraine#P...
you would not be describing this coup as "attempted" today.
> The so-called puppet president didn't break state laws
Not sure why that's relevant. As you said it yourself, he was ousted by protesters, not by Supreme Court. Breaking state laws is not the only reason for people to be upset.
> Breaking state laws is not the only reason for people to be upset.
Proven violation of state laws is a mandatory pre-requisite for a legitimate president expulsion from his office, "people get upset" isn't the same as the opportunistic power grab where democratic process wasn't held and due process wasn't respected. The US representatives were involved in the process to a degree, and yet you claim that it was the pro-russian puppet president at fault.
Proven violation of state laws is a mandatory pre-requisite for a legitimate president expulsion from his office, "people get upset" isn't the same as the opportunistic power grab where democratic process wasn't held and due process wasn't respected. The US representatives were involved in the process to a degree, and yet you claim that it was the pro-russian puppet president at fault.
People got upset and president fled from the country. How would you suggest it should be handled?
I think Ukraine handled it almost perfectly:
A temporary government was formed. Two democratic elections were held since. Each resulted in a new president being elected.
You could echo Russian talking points and call it undemocratic coup. But Ukraine undeniably returned back to stable democracy within a year. For a corrupt ex-soviet country, that's pretty damn impressive.
I think Ukraine handled it almost perfectly:
A temporary government was formed. Two democratic elections were held since. Each resulted in a new president being elected.
You could echo Russian talking points and call it undemocratic coup. But Ukraine undeniably returned back to stable democracy within a year. For a corrupt ex-soviet country, that's pretty damn impressive.
The President fled when his life was threatened after the coup. Him fleeing might be cowardly but it doesn't make it not a coup.
And the Ukraine Constitution was then changed, so elections after that aren't considered legitimate by everyone as a result. I mean we consider it legit because now our guys are running things.
And the Ukraine Constitution was then changed, so elections after that aren't considered legitimate by everyone as a result. I mean we consider it legit because now our guys are running things.
>You're missing the fact that Russia keeps redefining their interests.
People seem to be endlessly confused that leaders spin various narratives to sell a war at home. Putin is no different. It is a mistake to confuse these speeches with the real motives.
>because there's no way for Russia to act irrationally according to your framework
No, what we can't do is a priori determine that he is acting irrational thus obviating the need of understanding and anticipating our adversary.
>Ukraine is of supreme importance because it's the easiest target right now, geography and cultural ties are what makes it the easiest. Once Ukraine is done, there will be next easiest target.
This is just blatantly a-historical and self-serving.
People seem to be endlessly confused that leaders spin various narratives to sell a war at home. Putin is no different. It is a mistake to confuse these speeches with the real motives.
>because there's no way for Russia to act irrationally according to your framework
No, what we can't do is a priori determine that he is acting irrational thus obviating the need of understanding and anticipating our adversary.
>Ukraine is of supreme importance because it's the easiest target right now, geography and cultural ties are what makes it the easiest. Once Ukraine is done, there will be next easiest target.
This is just blatantly a-historical and self-serving.
> The issue is whether Russia is capable of acting rationally to secure their interests as they define them
> People seem to be endlessly confused that leaders spin various narratives to sell a war at home. Putin is no different
So are we talking about Putin, or about Russia? You seem to equate the two. My belief is that Putin or not, revanchism against the west after losing the cold war is the Russian zeitgeist.
> we can't do is a priori determine that he is acting irrational thus obviating the need of understanding and anticipating our adversary
I never said we should not try to understand him. Of course he's not an absolute unpredictable madman.
But there isn't much to understand either. Clearly he's been playing foot-in-the-door game for a while now. Your suggested strategy "just give in a little bit more and hope he stops" has already been tried a few times and hasn't worked so far. You want to keep trying, but that is exactly what foot-in-the-door players want you to do. The best strategy is to close the door.
> People seem to be endlessly confused that leaders spin various narratives to sell a war at home. Putin is no different
So are we talking about Putin, or about Russia? You seem to equate the two. My belief is that Putin or not, revanchism against the west after losing the cold war is the Russian zeitgeist.
> we can't do is a priori determine that he is acting irrational thus obviating the need of understanding and anticipating our adversary
I never said we should not try to understand him. Of course he's not an absolute unpredictable madman.
But there isn't much to understand either. Clearly he's been playing foot-in-the-door game for a while now. Your suggested strategy "just give in a little bit more and hope he stops" has already been tried a few times and hasn't worked so far. You want to keep trying, but that is exactly what foot-in-the-door players want you to do. The best strategy is to close the door.
> just give in a little bit more and hope he stops
I think the idea is to relinquish as little as possible while making Russia suffer as much as possible.
> The best strategy is to close the door
Are you suggesting that we escalate and incur more suffering in the short term to head off a possible worse future outcome?
I think the idea is to relinquish as little as possible while making Russia suffer as much as possible.
> The best strategy is to close the door
Are you suggesting that we escalate and incur more suffering in the short term to head off a possible worse future outcome?
We're all here speculating what is going to lead to a worse future outcome.
To me it seems obvious that Putin has been testing the waters for the last 10-15 years. Ukraine is not the end game, it's another test. So far the response that he got is that West is weak, worst they can do is slap on the wrist. Sure, the war turned out to be way more expensive than he anticipated, but Europe is still funding it.
Given Russia's rhetoric, hatred towards the west, and abundance of resources, my bet is that escalation is almost inevitable.
The question is on whose terms it will happen.
Escalation today seems necessary to prevent nuclear war tomorrow. If you're choosing between 1% chance of nuclear war today or 10% chance of nuclear war in 10 years, what will you chose?
To me it seems obvious that Putin has been testing the waters for the last 10-15 years. Ukraine is not the end game, it's another test. So far the response that he got is that West is weak, worst they can do is slap on the wrist. Sure, the war turned out to be way more expensive than he anticipated, but Europe is still funding it.
Given Russia's rhetoric, hatred towards the west, and abundance of resources, my bet is that escalation is almost inevitable.
The question is on whose terms it will happen.
Escalation today seems necessary to prevent nuclear war tomorrow. If you're choosing between 1% chance of nuclear war today or 10% chance of nuclear war in 10 years, what will you chose?
> Escalation today seems necessary to prevent nuclear war tomorrow.
I'm sure that doing nothing would have led to Russia attempting to exert control over Moldova and Poland next, at some point. I think everyone agrees on that. It's in the West's interest to make that as difficult as practical.
And the other alternative, escalating more than we have, might not make a difference, because unless we destroy the Russian military nothing would really change, and trying to destroy the Russian military would cost us enormous amounts of blood and treasure.
I may have misunderstood your prior "the best strategy is to close the door" remark. Are you saying that the West should be doing something more, like providing air cover to Ukraine?
If we escalated too much I assume the Russian's would adjust. Perhaps they would escalate, justifying tactical nukes because the whole world is against them. Perhaps they would withdraw, bide their time, and try again some other day, based on their fears and capabilities. Perhaps it's better that we stick with what we are doing - letting the Russians fritter away their resources trying to attain something just out of their reach.
I tend to think that we've been doing a good job of walking that line. We're helping Ukraine beat back Russia, trying to keep the conflict from significantly escalating, and weakening Russia in the process.
I'm sure that doing nothing would have led to Russia attempting to exert control over Moldova and Poland next, at some point. I think everyone agrees on that. It's in the West's interest to make that as difficult as practical.
And the other alternative, escalating more than we have, might not make a difference, because unless we destroy the Russian military nothing would really change, and trying to destroy the Russian military would cost us enormous amounts of blood and treasure.
I may have misunderstood your prior "the best strategy is to close the door" remark. Are you saying that the West should be doing something more, like providing air cover to Ukraine?
If we escalated too much I assume the Russian's would adjust. Perhaps they would escalate, justifying tactical nukes because the whole world is against them. Perhaps they would withdraw, bide their time, and try again some other day, based on their fears and capabilities. Perhaps it's better that we stick with what we are doing - letting the Russians fritter away their resources trying to attain something just out of their reach.
I tend to think that we've been doing a good job of walking that line. We're helping Ukraine beat back Russia, trying to keep the conflict from significantly escalating, and weakening Russia in the process.
>Your suggested strategy "just give in a little bit more and hope he stops" has already been tried a few times and hasn't worked so far.
This is completely disingenuous as well as factually inaccurate.
This is completely disingenuous as well as factually inaccurate.
> How Putin evaluates different outcomes for Russia is likely to be very different than that from a western context.
Few people aside from area experts are aware that Saddam Hussein thought that he won Gulf War 1. In his world, when a ruler loses a war, he is deposed and probably killed. He faced a war with the world's most powerful forces and emerged alive and in power. Therefore, he won.
The portrayal of Putin and the Kremlin in general by Western government and media is based on caricature. Since the war began, Kremlinologists trying to give a more nuanced view are shouted down.
Few people aside from area experts are aware that Saddam Hussein thought that he won Gulf War 1. In his world, when a ruler loses a war, he is deposed and probably killed. He faced a war with the world's most powerful forces and emerged alive and in power. Therefore, he won.
The portrayal of Putin and the Kremlin in general by Western government and media is based on caricature. Since the war began, Kremlinologists trying to give a more nuanced view are shouted down.
I stopped reading it after I saw the usual trope of "rules based."
The problem with NATO is that they can't comprehend the other sides have their own rules.
The problem with NATO is that they can't comprehend the other sides have their own rules.
If you replace Russia with USA, your statement is spot on.
This is from February of 2022, and we've had significant changes on the ground since then.
For a more detailed look at what's been going on, ISW has some fairly fact-based reporting on the situation.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-...
I find it more than a little funny that they're failing to conceal their obvious contempt for Russian incompetence in the last couple months, at the beginning of the war they were as neutral as one can get.
For a more detailed look at what's been going on, ISW has some fairly fact-based reporting on the situation.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-...
I find it more than a little funny that they're failing to conceal their obvious contempt for Russian incompetence in the last couple months, at the beginning of the war they were as neutral as one can get.
Keep in mind the ISW is literally a neocon think tank with Bill Kristol on the Board and leading the charge as Director. For anybody who doesn't know, Bill Kristol is perhaps the biggest warmonger alive, next to Kissinger. He is the neocon kingmaker.
Understandingwar.org should be viewed only through the lens that these are the same people who were cheerleading the 20 year debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Understandingwar.org should be viewed only through the lens that these are the same people who were cheerleading the 20 year debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Ah, good to know, thanks for the heads up.
> If the United States adheres to these five rules, it can demonstrate to Russia that the costs and likelihood of losing are so high, the only winning move is not to play.
Depressing to see that this is the kind of crap former US military are putting out.
The situation is so far beyond these trite five rules as to be laughable if it weren't so deadly serious. This was the case even in Feb 2022. Everything the author claims the US should be doing is something Russia is doing.
There are no new insights here, just a strong undercurrent of US exceptionalism. Exactly the kind of garbage Russia is feeding to its people.
Nowhere does the author explain the consequences for Russia of leaving Ukraine. How can withdrawal be a winning move if the author doesn't even know what that move leads to?
Depressing to see that this is the kind of crap former US military are putting out.
The situation is so far beyond these trite five rules as to be laughable if it weren't so deadly serious. This was the case even in Feb 2022. Everything the author claims the US should be doing is something Russia is doing.
There are no new insights here, just a strong undercurrent of US exceptionalism. Exactly the kind of garbage Russia is feeding to its people.
Nowhere does the author explain the consequences for Russia of leaving Ukraine. How can withdrawal be a winning move if the author doesn't even know what that move leads to?
The article promotes the opposite of exceptionalism.
> if it expects fair arbitration, the United States must ascribe to the rules it proclaims: For example, it cannot cry foul over Russian threats to freedom of navigation while remaining a nonsignatory to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Instead of flaunting exceptionalism and decrying these institutions’ irreconcilable problems, it must advance their credibility and authority. When necessary to withdraw from a commitment, the United States must state its intentions early and provide justification to avoid the perception that it too shirks the rules. Rule-breaking must bear a cost.
> if it expects fair arbitration, the United States must ascribe to the rules it proclaims: For example, it cannot cry foul over Russian threats to freedom of navigation while remaining a nonsignatory to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Instead of flaunting exceptionalism and decrying these institutions’ irreconcilable problems, it must advance their credibility and authority. When necessary to withdraw from a commitment, the United States must state its intentions early and provide justification to avoid the perception that it too shirks the rules. Rule-breaking must bear a cost.
>Nowhere does the author explain the consequences for Russia of leaving Ukraine. How can withdrawal be a winning move if the author doesn't even know what that move leads to?
The article does say that there are costs to this game, and breaking rules should be in itself a cost.
If the goal of the game is to stop playing the game - peace - then the consequences must be lesser than the cost of continuing playing the game.
The article does say that there are costs to this game, and breaking rules should be in itself a cost.
If the goal of the game is to stop playing the game - peace - then the consequences must be lesser than the cost of continuing playing the game.
I think the article is naive in the sense that NATO has done everything in its hands to steer and asure everyone in the world that this is absolutely a regional conflict, nothing to be worry about, nobody is going to globally deploy any force to handle anything, because you don't need to mobilize a dozen of armies resources for a fairly local conflict, even if the conflict involves a potencially hostile - to NATO - nuclear power.
Hence, MAD is not present in most of the scenarios probably evaluated in some tables around the globe. Even here, I think nobody is even mentioning great chances of a massive nuclear confrontation.
So, Russia has the upper hand in the game, and there's no MAD as a variable. So perspectives look awry from going towards a clean exit from the conflict. Nuclear options, are just of the several bad outcomes for EU.
I think by now NATO has lost the war and Ukraine is by itself, most probably any further military, intelligence assistant directly regarding about regaining control of the south of their country is being re-assesed right now.
They probably know they will have the lines of cooperation open just a couple more of hours till they fall to silence, and they will try to exact the most advances possible in this grim situation, for those lines would probably be stable for years, as it happened with Crimea.
Hence, MAD is not present in most of the scenarios probably evaluated in some tables around the globe. Even here, I think nobody is even mentioning great chances of a massive nuclear confrontation.
So, Russia has the upper hand in the game, and there's no MAD as a variable. So perspectives look awry from going towards a clean exit from the conflict. Nuclear options, are just of the several bad outcomes for EU.
I think by now NATO has lost the war and Ukraine is by itself, most probably any further military, intelligence assistant directly regarding about regaining control of the south of their country is being re-assesed right now.
They probably know they will have the lines of cooperation open just a couple more of hours till they fall to silence, and they will try to exact the most advances possible in this grim situation, for those lines would probably be stable for years, as it happened with Crimea.
Fascinating discussion, thank you everyone! :)
I didn't expect to see this level of sophisticated critical engagement.
I didn't expect to see this level of sophisticated critical engagement.
While I am actually reassured by this that some US Military leaders are not just jarheads, the solution, unfortunately, is not with the US being the world policeman or rest of the world but with the Russian People to recognise the lies being told, shake off the nationalistic crap being spouted and Remove Putin.
Wont happen. Current protests in russia are not against the war. Those protests are about mobilizing "the wrong people". Me, my son, my employees, smart young people from wealthy big cities, how dare you! Beloved leader said it wouldnt happen, said it was limited, no students, no essential workers, those bad bad men surrounding our great leader are clearly traitors or incompetent! Russians are ok with mobilization and war as long as its somebody else thrown into the meat grinder and all they hear about are successes on TV, or at the very least HD footage of some Mall being blown up by supersonic cruise missile.
It could also be solved by Ukranian people doing a similar thing. The eastern parts of Ukraine are hardly even Ukraine anyway. Borders are malleable. Just do a bit of surrender to end the war.
What does that even mean. There are tons of ethically Russian people -- at least four that I know of in my extended social circle, one of whom has already died -- proudly claim Ukrainian nationality (if not ethnicity) and were among the first to take up arms and volunteer to fight against Russia.
If borders are malleable so too are ethnicity and nationality malleable.
If borders are malleable so too are ethnicity and nationality malleable.
There is a lot of surrender already happening in those part already. Mostly by homeless drunk bums in russian military uniforms living in woodland encampments.
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1574754437335318529
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1574754437335318529
Borders are malleable is an incredibly naive, if not malicious thing to say.
Kenyan ambassador explained it really well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofijY6M-OA8
Kenyan ambassador explained it really well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofijY6M-OA8
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Good article. I agree.
At this stage it’s nearly guaranteed that at least small tactical nukes will be used in ukraine. There is a small chance they will not but just in case if you live in the region have iodine pills at hand. I hope I am wrong but there is good chance at least an accident will happen.
Do small tactical nukes exist?
The possibility is very low, why do you think is nearly guaranteed?
The possibility is very low, why do you think is nearly guaranteed?
Now that territories are “officially” part of russia putin can claim the country itself is under attack. Apparently that’s the only “legal” way he can use nukes. Given that his army is in shambles and there’s mounting pressure at home due to conscriptions, he’ll want a quick end. He cant get one without too many casualties on russia’s side since ukraine is doing rather well. I mean how can he accept defeat? It would not just be his own demise but also russia’s as it would look weak among countries with similar political systems. Plus he keeps selling this conflict as an existential threat to everything russian (he wrongfully claims their very way of life is under threat - this is not something you retract at short notice meaning he wants to play the long game). Ukraine cant retreat either.
So the only logical conclusion at the moment is that for russia to get out of this and still look like an actual power it needs to do something that stuns the rest of the world into backing off and potentially even retreating from some nato territory. And unless his new recruits pull some magic trick the only option left is the nuclear option.
So the only logical conclusion at the moment is that for russia to get out of this and still look like an actual power it needs to do something that stuns the rest of the world into backing off and potentially even retreating from some nato territory. And unless his new recruits pull some magic trick the only option left is the nuclear option.
>Now that territories are “officially” part of russia putin can claim the country itself is under attack. Apparently that’s the only “legal” way he can use nukes.
I think you're missing two variables that could lower odds of the event of using nuclear weapons:
- Ukraine has already attacked Russian territory (Belgorod), and occupied territory (Crimea);
- Russia has broken a lot of of laws (national and international), treaties, agreements, contracts... I don't think being "legal" is a deterrent for anything. They can do what they want;
They use this threat because they have nothing else at this time, and it's their last card.
I think you're missing two variables that could lower odds of the event of using nuclear weapons:
- Ukraine has already attacked Russian territory (Belgorod), and occupied territory (Crimea);
- Russia has broken a lot of of laws (national and international), treaties, agreements, contracts... I don't think being "legal" is a deterrent for anything. They can do what they want;
They use this threat because they have nothing else at this time, and it's their last card.
Indeed they likely attacked belgorod and crimea, but now there are ukranian troops on would be “russian ground”. Thats significantly different in putin’s mind. The signals he keeps sending are that: 1) russian territorial integrity under threat 2) nuclear bombs. We all said he wouldnt invade now we all say he wouldnt nuke.
Who knows anyway. War is unpredictable. I hope i am wrong. But i fail to see an alternative course at the moment.
Who knows anyway. War is unpredictable. I hope i am wrong. But i fail to see an alternative course at the moment.
We all said he wouldnt invade
Mm, who do you mean by we? I remember a very long drumbeat from US press of "intelligence shows massive Russian military buildup along border and says Russia likely to invade"
Mm, who do you mean by we? I remember a very long drumbeat from US press of "intelligence shows massive Russian military buildup along border and says Russia likely to invade"
When you look at it, after all the bravado, they always wrap up with something in the lines of "if Russia existence is in threat".
This war isn't aimed at ending Russia. In fact this war could end any time by Russia, there were many attempts and pleads to not even start the war.
I don't know what's in Putin's mind, but looks like he going through all of this to survive and keep is position.
This war isn't aimed at ending Russia. In fact this war could end any time by Russia, there were many attempts and pleads to not even start the war.
I don't know what's in Putin's mind, but looks like he going through all of this to survive and keep is position.
> he wrongfully claims their very way of life is under threat
Well, the Russian way of life seems to be to invade its neighbors, so yes, technically he's correct - sovereign well-defended neighbors are a threat to the Russian way of life.
Maybe it's high time they find a new, better way of life.
Well, the Russian way of life seems to be to invade its neighbors, so yes, technically he's correct - sovereign well-defended neighbors are a threat to the Russian way of life.
Maybe it's high time they find a new, better way of life.
Sometimes i sit and wonder how badly they missed the opportunity for building a better country. A place that consistently births brilliant minds, has vast mineral and oil resources, a large landmass, spans across two continents and has access to a large number of countries, yet it chose to be a bully perpetually stuck in mud. Imagine the level of development it could have achieved had it not chosen to always be so belligerent. A shame really. I hope russians get something better because this is below their level.
History and culture aside, there's a good chance they missed it precisely because of abundance of resources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
Maybe if the US wasn't so concerned with competing them and stymieing them? Monroe doctrine? They could have built something better rather than feeling constantly under threat? Lesson for US in how to be alongside China: don't try to arrange world so that only choice is: 1) don't compete with us meaningfully economically, or 2) become a military threat target
Tough love and hard to hear I bet but I think US needs to learn how to share and how to make it work for themselves to play second fiddle economically without getting violent or bitchy. Diva attitude hurts the classroom.
Also: different system doesn't mean evil. World should have multiple different systems and nurture the economic development of all.
Tough love and hard to hear I bet but I think US needs to learn how to share and how to make it work for themselves to play second fiddle economically without getting violent or bitchy. Diva attitude hurts the classroom.
Also: different system doesn't mean evil. World should have multiple different systems and nurture the economic development of all.
Russians are scared of getting rich by participating in the world economy?
Because they can't compete with literally any other country on literally anything?
And that gives them the right to murder and rape other countries?
Because they can't compete with literally any other country on literally anything?
And that gives them the right to murder and rape other countries?
It kind of sucks that all that spending on military technology still results in wars that are essentially stalemates. I would like to believe in a non-nuke "killshot" technical advantage (not great term). I thought we were there... Maybe such tech is beyond humans right now...or maybe a quick lower cost victory is just not profitable or useful enough :''''(
They’ve been demonstrated several times. Why do you believe they don’t exist?
This article estimates about 500 low yield US gravity bombs and 2,000 unspecified Russian weapons exist.
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/tactical-nuclear-weapons
This article estimates about 500 low yield US gravity bombs and 2,000 unspecified Russian weapons exist.
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/tactical-nuclear-weapons
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The way I see it: Right now, Russia is losing terrain and initiative too hard, too fast. IF Russia keeps losing, Putin is dead, and he knows it. If he's desperate enough, he can't lose much more by nuking something big enough to make it clear he dares, but small enough not to start a complete nuclear escalation. That's a very thin line to walk.
> That's a very thin line to walk.
The other powers would have to respond in a devastating way albeit hopefully non-nuclear otherwise they’re giving Carte Blanche to North Korea, China, Pakistan etc to use tactical nukes or even allies.
The other powers would have to respond in a devastating way albeit hopefully non-nuclear otherwise they’re giving Carte Blanche to North Korea, China, Pakistan etc to use tactical nukes or even allies.
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Yeah it's a nightmare scenario. If US really believes this is possible, and doesn't wish it, as global cop, isn't this what USSOCOM is for: covert decapitation strike?
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It assumes all players are rational.
In Russia's case, this might not be the case. They don't necessarily want the best outcome for them. They want to show the rest of the world who's boss, or die trying.