Xi’s Security Obsession Turns Ordinary Citizens into Spy Hunters(bloomberg.com)
bloomberg.com
Xi’s Security Obsession Turns Ordinary Citizens into Spy Hunters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-17/xi-s-security-obsession-turns-ordinary-citizens-into-spy-hunters
50 comments
https://archive.ph/ZcCBf
> Police in Henan province have urged citizens to quiz neighbors they mistrust on pop culture to ascertain their patriotism, while Shandong province state media published posters with the tagline “spies might be all around you.”
All this campaign will do is generate a ton of false positives. They'll end up duplicating Russia's practice of reporting people you don't like as unpatriotic. The US also has some experience with the practice [1], but fortunately those days are way behind us.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyism
All this campaign will do is generate a ton of false positives. They'll end up duplicating Russia's practice of reporting people you don't like as unpatriotic. The US also has some experience with the practice [1], but fortunately those days are way behind us.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyism
I think the idea with campaigns like these is not to actually root out spies - it's to get people to self censor because they're afraid that their neighbor is going to report them to the government. If everyone is afraid of saying any forbidden ideas, nothing "subversive" can spread because everyone lives in too much fear to spread it. Knowledge of this campaign is more important than the function of the campaign itself
It's kind of impressive to watch Xi continually double-down on disastrous policy. The memory of the Cultural Revolution is still there, and nobody wants to revisit those times. But after the disastrous Shanghai lockdowns, a lot of ordinary people realized that the government can just arbitrarily lock you up and destroy your ability to earn money / run your business. Young people who sacrificed their childhood to relentless studying only to find no jobs get tone-deaf messaging about "eating bitterness". People can only take so much. The Covid lockdowns turned out to be too much. But I think that many people, especially youth, are still pretty near too much. You can only pile on so much pressure before things explode, and Xi doesn't have Mao's charisma.
I think it’s a global phenomenon. We are seeing a rise of fascism across the globe, the policy and leadership choices made by key parties in the largest western countries is not seem like they learned from the 1920s at all
Most nuclear armed nations are now ruled by old men with quasi autocratic power concentrated like at no time in the last 80 years. Even the US had a brush with an authoritarian coup attempt and languishes on whether to roll the dice on that again.
Most nuclear armed nations are now ruled by old men with quasi autocratic power concentrated like at no time in the last 80 years. Even the US had a brush with an authoritarian coup attempt and languishes on whether to roll the dice on that again.
> It's kind of impressive to watch Xi continually double-down on disastrous policy.
"Well, did it work for those people?"
"No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might... but it might work for us."
Autocrats' egos are bigger than history lessons, I suppose.
"Well, did it work for those people?"
"No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might... but it might work for us."
Autocrats' egos are bigger than history lessons, I suppose.
Same here, the first thing I thought after reading the title was "wait, again?!" - knowing what inciting people to hunt witches usually turns into, I thought that guy is utterly fearless, at the very least.
Though, maybe he counts on this push not to work. He might see it as a temporary measure that will fizzle out quickly, giving him some time and not many headaches down the road. He'd be an incurable optimist then...
If this incitement works, it'll leave a mark on society for many decades into the future. In the best case, people will enjoy the ride for a few years and then tacitly agree not to speak of it. In the worst, there will be widespread lynches, pogroms, bloodshed on the level of Stalinist purges, then either a revolution or Great Terror for years to decades, and it'll take a century to fully (if that's even possible) heal.
What does Xi want to get out of it, really? Surely he's not stupid enough to think he'll catch any of the actual spies that are bound to be there anyway? Is whatever he wants to gain really worth playing with this particular fire? It would be safer to start an actual war, like his buddy did...
Though, maybe he counts on this push not to work. He might see it as a temporary measure that will fizzle out quickly, giving him some time and not many headaches down the road. He'd be an incurable optimist then...
If this incitement works, it'll leave a mark on society for many decades into the future. In the best case, people will enjoy the ride for a few years and then tacitly agree not to speak of it. In the worst, there will be widespread lynches, pogroms, bloodshed on the level of Stalinist purges, then either a revolution or Great Terror for years to decades, and it'll take a century to fully (if that's even possible) heal.
What does Xi want to get out of it, really? Surely he's not stupid enough to think he'll catch any of the actual spies that are bound to be there anyway? Is whatever he wants to gain really worth playing with this particular fire? It would be safer to start an actual war, like his buddy did...
Apparently, at least all of the "little red book" social media users do want to revisit those times.
Astute observation. Soviet Union did the same thing, even turning children against parents so the "forbidden thoughts" are not mentioned even in the privacy of home. Thought police.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlik_Morozov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlik_Morozov
> The US also has some experience with the practice [1], but fortunately those days are way behind us.
You must have been in a coma for several years after 9/11. There's also the recent anti-China initiatives by the Justice Department / FBI indicting dozens of professors and researchers, the majority of which have failed to secure any convictions for spying or espionage.
You must have been in a coma for several years after 9/11. There's also the recent anti-China initiatives by the Justice Department / FBI indicting dozens of professors and researchers, the majority of which have failed to secure any convictions for spying or espionage.
[deleted]
Like this? Don't worry you still have a few days to "Take the pledge to protect"... for #SeeSayDay 2023
https://www.dhs.gov/see-something-say-something
https://www.dhs.gov/see-something-say-something
> All this campaign will do is generate a ton of false positives
The way a totalitarian government thinks, false positives are a feature, not a bug.
Better a hundred innocent people are kidnapped by the secret police and tortured to death than a single person who disagrees with the CCP is allowed to live. -- Xi Jinping, probably
The way a totalitarian government thinks, false positives are a feature, not a bug.
Better a hundred innocent people are kidnapped by the secret police and tortured to death than a single person who disagrees with the CCP is allowed to live. -- Xi Jinping, probably
Idk, NK does this for a pretty long time and at allowed Kim to stay in power
Sounds like Cultural Revolution 2.0 -- this time with bots!
Worth adding to the Evil Overlord List:
When making decisions about my security forces, I will bear in mind the example of East Germany's supposedly all-knowing and all-powerful Stasi...and of how utterly useless they proved to be. Better to be accidentally killed by the Hero's comic-relief Sidekick than to have my Evil Empire collapse without the Hero having had to lift a finger.
When making decisions about my security forces, I will bear in mind the example of East Germany's supposedly all-knowing and all-powerful Stasi...and of how utterly useless they proved to be. Better to be accidentally killed by the Hero's comic-relief Sidekick than to have my Evil Empire collapse without the Hero having had to lift a finger.
Stasi was very efficient in suppression of German dissent.
East Germany collapsed on the account of persistent information inflow from the West (TV, radio, zero language barrier against West Germany), plus its ideological allies (the Warsaw Pact led by USSR) abandoning them. A country of 17 million isolated in a sea of non-friendly powers would be unviable. Once USSR dropped the Brezhnev Doctrine of Limited Sovereignty and Poland started introducing democracy, GDR was in a very tight spot.
China won't become isolated anytime soon, and there isn't really an efficient way to supply dissenting news to Chinese people in Chinese en masse. Unfortunately, I believe that Chinese secret service can stay efficient for a long, long time.
East Germany collapsed on the account of persistent information inflow from the West (TV, radio, zero language barrier against West Germany), plus its ideological allies (the Warsaw Pact led by USSR) abandoning them. A country of 17 million isolated in a sea of non-friendly powers would be unviable. Once USSR dropped the Brezhnev Doctrine of Limited Sovereignty and Poland started introducing democracy, GDR was in a very tight spot.
China won't become isolated anytime soon, and there isn't really an efficient way to supply dissenting news to Chinese people in Chinese en masse. Unfortunately, I believe that Chinese secret service can stay efficient for a long, long time.
Particularly when Hollywood too is self-censoring w.r.t. China.
> there isn't really an efficient way to supply dissenting news to Chinese people in Chinese en masse
What exactly would you like to tell them? A large percentage of Chinese have access to VPNs, travel to other countries, and talk with people from all over. The trade offs that Americans have implicitly made, accepting high street crime in exchange for “freedom” won’t universally be accepted as better. They are a cultural choice.
The average Chinese isn’t eating grass or cowering from Big Brother. Economically, they’re doing significantly better than their parents. The red hot post-war economy Americans reminisce about? Chinese have been living that reality for 40 years now. In America we have recessions once a decade, but up until this year the average Chinese never even knew what a recession was.
What exactly would you like to tell them? A large percentage of Chinese have access to VPNs, travel to other countries, and talk with people from all over. The trade offs that Americans have implicitly made, accepting high street crime in exchange for “freedom” won’t universally be accepted as better. They are a cultural choice.
The average Chinese isn’t eating grass or cowering from Big Brother. Economically, they’re doing significantly better than their parents. The red hot post-war economy Americans reminisce about? Chinese have been living that reality for 40 years now. In America we have recessions once a decade, but up until this year the average Chinese never even knew what a recession was.
" Economically, they’re doing significantly better than their parents."
Are you sure about the really young cohorts? AFAIK youth unemployment in China is so bad that they stopped releasing the stats.
Are you sure about the really young cohorts? AFAIK youth unemployment in China is so bad that they stopped releasing the stats.
Yes. Even taking the last two years into account, China has gone from a gdp/capita of under $1000 to over $12000 in just 20 years. Thats equivalent to jumping from an Ethiopian economy to a Russian one in the span of a generation. China has poured more concrete since 2000 than the rest of the world combined prior to 2000.
Americans have made no such trade off. The amount of street crime is quite low in most of the country. It's only a noticeable problem in a few large cities that have been wrecked by failed progressive policies. My city has literally zero murders most years, and those few that have occurred have been private disputes rather than street crime.
Those “failed progressive policies” are American policies made by American politicians. The United States has very high crime rates compared to China.
If you don’t trust Chinese crime stats, check Singapore’s which are even lower. Singapore is a city bigger than LA but with low crime rates due to cameras and police that know how to do their jobs. Singapore also gives the death penalty for peddling drugs which is a lesson conservative states might have directed at the Sackler family rather than giving them a free pass.
Shootings are common in the U.S. and American politicians have accepted this reality. Even after children are slaughtered, politicians do nothing. Those children pay for American “freedom” with their lives. Other cultures choose to put children first.
If you don’t trust Chinese crime stats, check Singapore’s which are even lower. Singapore is a city bigger than LA but with low crime rates due to cameras and police that know how to do their jobs. Singapore also gives the death penalty for peddling drugs which is a lesson conservative states might have directed at the Sackler family rather than giving them a free pass.
Shootings are common in the U.S. and American politicians have accepted this reality. Even after children are slaughtered, politicians do nothing. Those children pay for American “freedom” with their lives. Other cultures choose to put children first.
They also have AI now. Listening in on every phone call and monitoring every video camera is a real possibility for the first time in history.
It’s perhaps wishful thinking to believe that oppressive states will automatically fall apart. Stasi-infested East Germany could well have kept existing had it not been located next to a Western democracy that everyone was looking towards. Look at Eritrea or North Korea, for example. China, too, doesn’t have a direct neighbor that exerts the same influence on it as West Germany on the GDR. Moreover, China already began to roll out years ago surveillance tech that the Stasi could have only dreamed of.
In time, all states fall apart. Or get conquered. Or lose a civil war / revolution. Or whatever.
Sure, China has a bunch of advantages (large scale, distinct ethnic/national identity, etc.) that the GDR didn't have. But Chinese history records ~4,000 years of dynasties, emperors, generals, etc. with similar authoritarian ambitions - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history
Saying "This Time Will Be Different, Because $Yet_Another_New_Reason" also has an extremely long history.
Sure, China has a bunch of advantages (large scale, distinct ethnic/national identity, etc.) that the GDR didn't have. But Chinese history records ~4,000 years of dynasties, emperors, generals, etc. with similar authoritarian ambitions - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynasties_in_Chinese_history
Saying "This Time Will Be Different, Because $Yet_Another_New_Reason" also has an extremely long history.
Some of those dynasties lasted hundreds of years. Most recently, the Qing dynasty lasted longer than the United States has (the US being one of the world’s older democracies). I don’t think it’s much solace to people living today that they only need to endure 450 more years of autocratic rule before their nation undergoes a revolution.
And just because the ruling class is overthrown in a country doesn’t mean the material quality of life for everyday people changes. One autocrat replacing another isn’t much better.
And just because the ruling class is overthrown in a country doesn’t mean the material quality of life for everyday people changes. One autocrat replacing another isn’t much better.
North Korea would collapse in a week if it wasn’t propped up by China. I don’t think these evil systems are very stable long term without outside support.
What would happen if no country like North Korea was sanctioned by the US and the west any more?
This stuff isn’t intended to do anything but point the finger away from the man behind the curtain for the current social and economic problems in mainland China. By creating an external boogie man all problems can be attributable to that.
You’ll be surprised how many people you can surveil with StateGPT
don’t laugh - it’s vastly more accurate than xKeyScore and other keyword reliant systems and it has the ability to catch meaning, even if you speak somewhat obfuscated. Not perfect by any means, but a vast improvement on the state of full time surveillance. Regulated industries are already racing adoption for compliance scanning, in combination with Whisper it’s a clear pivot point in surveillance capabilities for anyone who isn’t the NSA
One of the reasons it’s a mistake to withdraw on “the technology is flawed, it hallucinates” - A bit of inaccuracy, an occasional execution of a wrongly accused person isn’t a dealbreaker for countries. What matters is the improvement over the status quo
don’t laugh - it’s vastly more accurate than xKeyScore and other keyword reliant systems and it has the ability to catch meaning, even if you speak somewhat obfuscated. Not perfect by any means, but a vast improvement on the state of full time surveillance. Regulated industries are already racing adoption for compliance scanning, in combination with Whisper it’s a clear pivot point in surveillance capabilities for anyone who isn’t the NSA
One of the reasons it’s a mistake to withdraw on “the technology is flawed, it hallucinates” - A bit of inaccuracy, an occasional execution of a wrongly accused person isn’t a dealbreaker for countries. What matters is the improvement over the status quo
> how utterly useless they proved to be
Worse than useless. Consider the social and economic utility of people that piss others off.
No actual harm caused. Not bad people. Just those neighbours or colleagues or friend’s significant others that, through selfishness and lack of awareness or simply bullheadedness, question everything and come up creative (sometimes not totally legit or invited) workarounds.
Those people do not survive such regimes. And the societies blighted of them show it rather quickly.
Worse than useless. Consider the social and economic utility of people that piss others off.
No actual harm caused. Not bad people. Just those neighbours or colleagues or friend’s significant others that, through selfishness and lack of awareness or simply bullheadedness, question everything and come up creative (sometimes not totally legit or invited) workarounds.
Those people do not survive such regimes. And the societies blighted of them show it rather quickly.
From the worldconquer.org version of the Evil Overlord List:
> 208. Members of my Legion of Terror will attend seminars on Sensitivity Training. It's good public relations for them to be kind and courteous to the general population when not actively engaged in sowing chaos and destruction.
> 208. Members of my Legion of Terror will attend seminars on Sensitivity Training. It's good public relations for them to be kind and courteous to the general population when not actively engaged in sowing chaos and destruction.
The point of the Stasi wasn’t to find/prosecute dissent, it was to create an environment that prevented it from occurring, spreading, or gaining traction. The Stasi existed to sow the fields of popular politics with salt through creating an environment of paranoia.
Remember: if you see something, say something.
But when China does it there's actual outrage. I wish people here had the same outrage about us doing the same thing in the West, where that outrage could actually possibly have an impact on the real world other than just propping up two-minutes hate on the official enemies. Getting mad about China's numerous repressive measures achieves literally nothing, because they don't care about our opinions at all, whereas getting mad about all of the same stuff being done here could actually change something.
But when China does it there's actual outrage. I wish people here had the same outrage about us doing the same thing in the West, where that outrage could actually possibly have an impact on the real world other than just propping up two-minutes hate on the official enemies. Getting mad about China's numerous repressive measures achieves literally nothing, because they don't care about our opinions at all, whereas getting mad about all of the same stuff being done here could actually change something.
In July, one Chinese employee was allegedly reported to the police by his colleagues after failing to remember the lyrics to a popular Chinese song at a karaoke night aroused their suspicion.
“He turned out to be a you-know-what,” one user who knew the group wrote on social media app Xiaohongshu, named after Mao’s Little Red Book that was used to compel the nation’s population to inform on each other. China offers up to 500,000 yuan ($68,160) to citizens who successfully report spies.
That post, which Bloomberg hasn’t been able to verify, garnered some 16,000 likes as users enthusiastically exchanged tips for spotting spies. Not knowing slang popularized by the annual spring gala broadcast or mnemonic devices taught in math class could all be hallmarks of a spook, they said.
Are things like this happening in the West?
“He turned out to be a you-know-what,” one user who knew the group wrote on social media app Xiaohongshu, named after Mao’s Little Red Book that was used to compel the nation’s population to inform on each other. China offers up to 500,000 yuan ($68,160) to citizens who successfully report spies.
That post, which Bloomberg hasn’t been able to verify, garnered some 16,000 likes as users enthusiastically exchanged tips for spotting spies. Not knowing slang popularized by the annual spring gala broadcast or mnemonic devices taught in math class could all be hallmarks of a spook, they said.
Are things like this happening in the West?
Considering the article doesn’t link to the post in question, or even show a screenshot, I hardly find this to be a compelling anecdote.
This portion of the article loses even more credibility since the author clearly doesn’t understand the Chinese social media landscape, nor what “Mao’s Little Red Book” is actually called in Chinese.
This portion of the article loses even more credibility since the author clearly doesn’t understand the Chinese social media landscape, nor what “Mao’s Little Red Book” is actually called in Chinese.
Pablo González detained in Poland without accusation? Julian Assange? Snowden?
Not anymore, but the red scare of MccArthyism was real.
> Are things like this happening in the West?
Isn't there something about abortion snitching in Texas?
Isn't there something about abortion snitching in Texas?
He's paranoid about spies because he know how much effort China has made to place spies everywhere abroad, and he assumes that the West is doing the same.
> he assumes that the West is doing the same
Of course it is? The CIA was openly crying in the press a couple years ago about their Chinese network getting rolled up, and later touted the establishment of a "China Mission Center."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/21/china-stolen-us-data-ex...
https://www.npr.org/2021/11/16/1051170999/as-u-s-spies-look-...
Of course it is? The CIA was openly crying in the press a couple years ago about their Chinese network getting rolled up, and later touted the establishment of a "China Mission Center."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/21/china-stolen-us-data-ex...
https://www.npr.org/2021/11/16/1051170999/as-u-s-spies-look-...
Of course the West also has spies everywhere. But it's not doing the same as China. The scale in which china does it isn't even in the same league.
Edit: just skimmed your comment history. You're one of those "America bad" people. Good luck.
Edit: just skimmed your comment history. You're one of those "America bad" people. Good luck.
Argument from character - exemplified by a post history - is a fallacy.
Other than that, sorry to break it to you, but "America" (the USA govt, more specifically) is really bad for almost everyone other than US citizens. Which is expected - officials routinely say they have their own citizens and industry well-being in mind. The US has had almost 40 years of monopoly in what you could call a "protection racket" if it wasn't already called a NATO charter. As a result, as with all monopolists, the price of belonging to the club was very high (both economically and politically, and in other areas, too). And that was even before Trump, when a lot of trust in stability of long-term commitments went down the drain.
To many countries it's still worth it, of course. To many, though, it's just the only option, irrespective of the costs. To them, "America bad" is an obvious statement of fact. And I'm speaking about nominal "allies" here! Imagine how it looks to Iranians or Afghans.
I'm not "against America", I'm against exploitative monopolies, no matter where they come from. The fact that every other option is even worse, doesn't really negate the fact that America can, and many time is, objectively "bad" news to others.
Other than that, sorry to break it to you, but "America" (the USA govt, more specifically) is really bad for almost everyone other than US citizens. Which is expected - officials routinely say they have their own citizens and industry well-being in mind. The US has had almost 40 years of monopoly in what you could call a "protection racket" if it wasn't already called a NATO charter. As a result, as with all monopolists, the price of belonging to the club was very high (both economically and politically, and in other areas, too). And that was even before Trump, when a lot of trust in stability of long-term commitments went down the drain.
To many countries it's still worth it, of course. To many, though, it's just the only option, irrespective of the costs. To them, "America bad" is an obvious statement of fact. And I'm speaking about nominal "allies" here! Imagine how it looks to Iranians or Afghans.
I'm not "against America", I'm against exploitative monopolies, no matter where they come from. The fact that every other option is even worse, doesn't really negate the fact that America can, and many time is, objectively "bad" news to others.
He's turning China into North Korea. A great collapse and starvation is coming.
Starvation? With Russia so reliant on China? Russia can feed China easily as long as China keeps Russian state from collapsing.
I went to school with someone who grew up in Ukraine before the fall of the wall, and her comment was that society twisted itself into distrusting and ratting on neighbors for ‘bad’ behavior.
Low trust societies are the worst for the citizens and the best for the corrupt in power. These activities are great for keeping the status quo.
Low trust societies are the worst for the citizens and the best for the corrupt in power. These activities are great for keeping the status quo.
But... that comes with a huge economic penalty in general system corruption, reduced cooperation, productivity, efficiency. Low morale/patriotism. And eventually the central powers fragment.
Really the USSR lasted as long as it did because the Great War had a lasting mass perception of survivalism, and the power vacuum bringing the Warsaw Pact under Russia's economic dominance. Eventually it fell apart.
Somehow Putin reversed that (likely because of oil revenues), but the oil age is coming to an end, and Putin is allegedly failing in health. When he dies or is deposed, Russia will fragment I think.
But this time, there is a military power that is greater than Russia, at least in conventional terms: Ukraine. It will have a trained, battle-hardened, motivated, fully NATO-supplied army, with deep NCO-deep ties to NATO militaries, equipment, officers, etc. It will have trust of its allies and a critical mission to NATO of being the new line of defense with Russia.
What will likely happen once Putin falls is that Belarus will effectively become allied with Poland, Ukraine, and the NATO-member Balkans. Ukraine will become a pivotal multi-decade military and diplomatic leverage over parts of crumbling Russia: George, Armenia, and/or Azerbaijan will align with them.
So what happens then? Kalingrad declares independence? What about the thin sliver of Russia between the Black and Caspian seas, isn't that where the oil fields are, or the Kalmyks decide the time is right? Bashkirs? Chechens of course?
What if post-putin results in separate power centers in Volgograd/St Petersburg, and Moscow all essentially dividing the spoils?
Really the USSR lasted as long as it did because the Great War had a lasting mass perception of survivalism, and the power vacuum bringing the Warsaw Pact under Russia's economic dominance. Eventually it fell apart.
Somehow Putin reversed that (likely because of oil revenues), but the oil age is coming to an end, and Putin is allegedly failing in health. When he dies or is deposed, Russia will fragment I think.
But this time, there is a military power that is greater than Russia, at least in conventional terms: Ukraine. It will have a trained, battle-hardened, motivated, fully NATO-supplied army, with deep NCO-deep ties to NATO militaries, equipment, officers, etc. It will have trust of its allies and a critical mission to NATO of being the new line of defense with Russia.
What will likely happen once Putin falls is that Belarus will effectively become allied with Poland, Ukraine, and the NATO-member Balkans. Ukraine will become a pivotal multi-decade military and diplomatic leverage over parts of crumbling Russia: George, Armenia, and/or Azerbaijan will align with them.
So what happens then? Kalingrad declares independence? What about the thin sliver of Russia between the Black and Caspian seas, isn't that where the oil fields are, or the Kalmyks decide the time is right? Bashkirs? Chechens of course?
What if post-putin results in separate power centers in Volgograd/St Petersburg, and Moscow all essentially dividing the spoils?
The goal with this kind of thing is not about actually finding spies. By flattening discourse you make it easier to spot pockets of true discontent. And as a side effect it pits the hoi polloi against each other instead of together against the state.
Winnie the Pooh taking a page out of old Joe Stalin's book - make everyone fear you so much that they don't even trust their own family members.