Toyota got mocked for rejecting EV hype – not anymore(fortune.com)
fortune.com
Toyota got mocked for rejecting EV hype – not anymore
https://fortune.com/2024/02/08/toyota-hybrid-vehicles-carmakers-strategy-electric-vehicles-hype/
51 comments
To your first point, "The focus should be on producing an efficient..." it's not even close:
> Out of the 8.9 million barrels of gasoline consumed daily in the U.S. on average, only 1.8 million gallons, or approximately 20 percent, actually propel an internal combustion vehicle forward. The other 80 percent is wasted on heat and parasitic auxiliary components that draw away energy. As the world begins its shift to EV proliferattion, the good news is electric vehicles are far more energy efficient on the road. [0]
Meanwhile, EVs start at around 77% energy efficiency and go up from there.
This alone is why EVs will take over mobility.
[0] https://www.motortrend.com/news/evs-more-efficient-than-inte...
> Out of the 8.9 million barrels of gasoline consumed daily in the U.S. on average, only 1.8 million gallons, or approximately 20 percent, actually propel an internal combustion vehicle forward. The other 80 percent is wasted on heat and parasitic auxiliary components that draw away energy. As the world begins its shift to EV proliferattion, the good news is electric vehicles are far more energy efficient on the road. [0]
Meanwhile, EVs start at around 77% energy efficiency and go up from there.
This alone is why EVs will take over mobility.
[0] https://www.motortrend.com/news/evs-more-efficient-than-inte...
The problem EVs are trying to solve is weaning ourselves off fossil fuels. If EVs are more expensive, less reliable, and a hassle, then in the end that doesn't matter because continuing to use ICE cars doesn't solve the problem at all.
An expensive solution is better than no solution, especially when the problem being solved is potentially existential.
An expensive solution is better than no solution, especially when the problem being solved is potentially existential.
That's an odd view, considering that the main problem with ICE vehicles was not that they failed to be efficient, reliable and cost effective. The problem was that they spewed CO2, warming up the Earth, with disastrous consequences.
That's the chief problem EVs are trying to address, not reliability or cost.
That's the chief problem EVs are trying to address, not reliability or cost.
> the main problem with ICE vehicles was not that they failed to be efficient, reliable and cost effective. The problem was that they spewed CO2, warming up the Earth, with disastrous consequences.
The average consumer doesn't care about those things. She cares about whether her gas prices are cutting into her budget though, and that's the problem that EVs are solving for her.
The average consumer doesn't care about those things. She cares about whether her gas prices are cutting into her budget though, and that's the problem that EVs are solving for her.
>The average consumer doesn't care about those things.
Only because the externality is unpriced - we all have to bear the cost of her tailpipe emissions, whether we want to or not. In markets where fuel taxes are anywhere near the actual cost of the externality, EVs have a markedly lower TCO.
Only because the externality is unpriced - we all have to bear the cost of her tailpipe emissions, whether we want to or not. In markets where fuel taxes are anywhere near the actual cost of the externality, EVs have a markedly lower TCO.
Like trains and buses?
Fixed it for you:
EVs are a textbook case in falling in love with a solution, not the problem. The focus should be on producing an efficient, reliable and cost effective _public transit systems_ that are widely accessible to as many people as possible.
EVs are a textbook case in falling in love with a solution, not the problem. The focus should be on producing an efficient, reliable and cost effective _public transit systems_ that are widely accessible to as many people as possible.
That grossly ignores the majority of rural america where public transit systems will never effectively serve their needs given the economics
That's why public transport shouldn't be left to the market. The benefits to society are huge in terms of environment so it's well worth subsidizing it.
And what of suburbia? Must us urbanites continue to support their lifestyle, to our own detriment?
Many rural areas continue to provide real value. So we're only too happy to accommodate them.
But the suburbs? Not so much.
Many rural areas continue to provide real value. So we're only too happy to accommodate them.
But the suburbs? Not so much.
Devils advocate here - if you tax buses according to the road wear they cause they’d be nowhere near affordable…
I live in NYC and subways (with both express as well as local) are very time efficient, especially during the few hours of rush hour. My iPhone appointments would tell me to leave 45 mins early since it assumed I as using a car, but the real transit time including walking was 15 mins using subways.
Changing zoning laws so that there is more density would shift demand to mass transit.
Changing zoning laws so that there is more density would shift demand to mass transit.
It's a Kodak moment.
This praise comes from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that does not support alternatives to reliance on the oil industry.
This praise comes from the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that does not support alternatives to reliance on the oil industry.
Your characterization of the Heritage Foundation's position on energy is not really accurate or supportable.
At the very least they have several articles on their site supporting nuclear energy.
https://www.heritage.org/energy/commentary/time-bring-nuclea...
At the very least they have several articles on their site supporting nuclear energy.
https://www.heritage.org/energy/commentary/time-bring-nuclea...
> Denying the world access to clean, affordable fuels like gas, oil, and coal is a real problem.
This is literally the second sentence of that article.
This is literally the second sentence of that article.
There's folks that suggest nuclear energy is promoted not as an alternative to fossil fuels (because it won't actually be built, at least not in sufficient quantity any time soon) but as a way to discourage wind and PV and thus tacitly support the status quo.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/triple-nuclear-power-cop28
Of course, this is just one opinion battling another.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/triple-nuclear-power-cop28
Of course, this is just one opinion battling another.
I guess they know that nuclear is a failed proposition in the US (and everywhere except China) so they can redirect focus from renewables into chasing this bridge to nowhere.
BEVs are more like 3DTV moment. It looks good on paper, but is annoying to use.
Starting with a full tank each morning is the opposite of annoying to use. Having to go out of my way to a gas station to pay more per mile is the annoying thing.
Not the case if you are living in an apartment. More than 50% people in EU are living in apartments. They then need to charge for hour on public chargers and pay for charge more than for equivalent in gas.
Who said anything about houses? An apartment dweller can have a power outlet installed at their parking spot. For people that have to endure street parking lantern charging is becoming more and more prevalent. Back when I didn’t have a private charging I would charge while doing my grocery shopping. Of course there’s always work charging.
Back in the day luddites also pointed out the lack of gasoline infrastructure. A horse is much less annoying obviously.
Back in the day luddites also pointed out the lack of gasoline infrastructure. A horse is much less annoying obviously.
That's fairy tale thinking. Commie blocks in Eastern Europe won't get torn down and they have 1 parking space per 3 apartments. How is it going to work there? Some people live in houses in former "worker colonies" built in 19th century during industrialization. They don't have place to park either so they are parking wherever it is possible. So your scenario is not going to work.
> Because of my strong passion for cars, I am an old-fashioned person in regards to digitalization, electric vehicles, and connected cars
I can get behind the "digitalization" and "connected cars" opinions.
For example, tesla has removed (almost) all dedicated controls and put everything on a touchscreen.
On the latest cars, it has no shift lever (it guesses), no turn signal stalk (it is a touchpad on steering wheel that moves) and more mess. headlights, horn, defrost, climate controls, entertainment system need dedicated controls for muscle memory, instead they are difficult to control and make you a worse driver.
the connected car thing? You should be able to disconnect or firewall your car. Nope.
I can get behind the "digitalization" and "connected cars" opinions.
For example, tesla has removed (almost) all dedicated controls and put everything on a touchscreen.
On the latest cars, it has no shift lever (it guesses), no turn signal stalk (it is a touchpad on steering wheel that moves) and more mess. headlights, horn, defrost, climate controls, entertainment system need dedicated controls for muscle memory, instead they are difficult to control and make you a worse driver.
the connected car thing? You should be able to disconnect or firewall your car. Nope.
I feel the same way and struggle with lack of physical controls on my phone (eg iphone flashlight!!!). I couldn't imagine operating a car this way.
That said, just want to point out a couple of things that I don't think are true.
> it has no shift lever (it guesses)
There are shift buttons up near the rear mirror on Tesla's latest two vehicles (truck and highland).
> it is a touchpad on steering wheel that moves
I think they're actually real buttons. Still not a stalk though. They're even putting in a steering wheel horn on new models too.
I think I would still have an issue despite bringing some of these things back. I doubt consumers will have any control over this in the near future though, and learn to deal with it :/
Regarding iphone flashlight, every time i try to click on it, it moves right above as if i'm trying to unlock it. Set the triple back-tap option which works 1/10th of the time.
That said, just want to point out a couple of things that I don't think are true.
> it has no shift lever (it guesses)
There are shift buttons up near the rear mirror on Tesla's latest two vehicles (truck and highland).
> it is a touchpad on steering wheel that moves
I think they're actually real buttons. Still not a stalk though. They're even putting in a steering wheel horn on new models too.
I think I would still have an issue despite bringing some of these things back. I doubt consumers will have any control over this in the near future though, and learn to deal with it :/
Regarding iphone flashlight, every time i try to click on it, it moves right above as if i'm trying to unlock it. Set the triple back-tap option which works 1/10th of the time.
[dupe] / Related:
Toyota cashes in on booming hybrid sales
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39275897
Toyota cashes in on booming hybrid sales
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39275897
It is funny how much they are willing to spend on PR and articles supporting their stock value instead of focusing on R&D.
A fun radical policy is free charging for electric vehicles subsidized by externalities through gas taxes.
Why is that considered “radical”?
Lol, while they dither, BYD is rapidly eating parts of their market. By the time Toyota builds their factories other makers will have had a full range of vehicles for years.
it never fails to amaze me that when talking about EV groups that it's always just universally presumed that making a good quality, reliable, easy to service and maintain vehicle is a solved problem, and that all that matters now is whether or not you offer a specific drive-train.
even this late into the game Toyota is at a significant advantage compared to most EV groups : they have the whole 'vehicle' thing just-about mastered, they have significant production capability, and they've been dabbling with electric technologies just about longer than anyone aside from GM.
Meanwhile BYD and Tesla are still struggling with body panel fit-and-finish, delivery, repair turnaround, parts availability and numerous small QC problems.
Offering an electric drivetrain is many times easier than fixing those other problems; Toyota should know -- they've been chasing those same problems and squashing them since 1935.
even this late into the game Toyota is at a significant advantage compared to most EV groups : they have the whole 'vehicle' thing just-about mastered, they have significant production capability, and they've been dabbling with electric technologies just about longer than anyone aside from GM.
Meanwhile BYD and Tesla are still struggling with body panel fit-and-finish, delivery, repair turnaround, parts availability and numerous small QC problems.
Offering an electric drivetrain is many times easier than fixing those other problems; Toyota should know -- they've been chasing those same problems and squashing them since 1935.
I agree, so it's the battery packs which give BYD and Tesla the "advantage" in EVs.
Toyota still makes excellent cars, just when EV, the range is not competitive.
What is Toyota doing on the battery front? It should be a multi-billion investment. I realize that the energy story is complicated in Japan, but they are a global brand.
Toyota still makes excellent cars, just when EV, the range is not competitive.
What is Toyota doing on the battery front? It should be a multi-billion investment. I realize that the energy story is complicated in Japan, but they are a global brand.
> it's always just universally presumed that making a good quality, reliable, easy to service and maintain vehicle is a solved problem
You’ve just described a bicycle.
You’ve just described a bicycle.
This theory would make more sense if we didn't have the actual practical example of the Toyota BZ4x being a crappy vehicle.
I would also lol, if it wasn't all so tragic.
Like ostriches hiding from the threat, their heads are buried deeply in the sand.
Like ostriches hiding from the threat, their heads are buried deeply in the sand.
Toyota's failure is right around the corner. Meanwhile, they've not been able to manufacture enough gas hybrids to meet demand for the last 4 years. Months to years long waitlists on the Prius, Rav4, and so on. Car market changes slowly. What people get today, they will have for 5-10 years. Especially millennials who are struggling to make rent. Toyota doesn't need to catch up to EVs; it's the other way around.
They're betting on solid state batteries for their EVs and offer hybrids until they are able to start making them.
Not sure how the solid state bet is going to play out but so far their hybrid strategy is working quite well. Their hybrids are selling out before they even leave the factory. It makes sense because they have a huge reputation for reliability and are sometimes the only hybrid offering in some segments like minivans and large three row SUVs.
Other manufacturers have bet on developing platforms using current battery tech but sales of current gen EVs seem to have stalled.
Customers are thinking rationally. You can either buy a current gen EV and deal with the depreciation or buy a hybrid and keep it until EVs mature and it's time to switch.
Not sure how the solid state bet is going to play out but so far their hybrid strategy is working quite well. Their hybrids are selling out before they even leave the factory. It makes sense because they have a huge reputation for reliability and are sometimes the only hybrid offering in some segments like minivans and large three row SUVs.
Other manufacturers have bet on developing platforms using current battery tech but sales of current gen EVs seem to have stalled.
Customers are thinking rationally. You can either buy a current gen EV and deal with the depreciation or buy a hybrid and keep it until EVs mature and it's time to switch.
> sales of current gen EVs seem to have stalled.
Have they? I've seen this repeated a few times but all the various articles[1][2] I can find that say anything about this are saying that the growth rate slowed slightly, probably due to interest rate rises, but not that sales have dipped or even plateaued overall.
The main decreases seem to be driven by specific models declining[3] but otherwise the industry is healthy.
[1]: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1327-janu...
[2]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/tesla-rak...
[3]: https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/fords-ev-sales-drop-11-whi...
Have they? I've seen this repeated a few times but all the various articles[1][2] I can find that say anything about this are saying that the growth rate slowed slightly, probably due to interest rate rises, but not that sales have dipped or even plateaued overall.
The main decreases seem to be driven by specific models declining[3] but otherwise the industry is healthy.
[1]: https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1327-janu...
[2]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/tesla-rak...
[3]: https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/fords-ev-sales-drop-11-whi...
The NY Times has an article about why sales of F150 Lightning EV Pickups have declined:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/fords-f150-light...
Reading that I was struck by how often they defer to dealers. My understanding is that dealers don't like EV's because it cuts their lucrative repair profits. If the dealers won't sell the EV's then it looks like demand has collapsed. But maybe it's just that the dealers are not pushing the EV's. It seems very suspicious that three months ago EV sales were booming and now they are not, for all brands simultaneously. I suspect a propaganda campaign.
It also seems that Ford's mileage estimator doesn't take into account temperature and they have not added a heat pump to the battery to optimize its temperature. So it is no wonder owners are surprised when the range meter drops by 70 miles when they drive 35 miles.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/fords-f150-light...
Reading that I was struck by how often they defer to dealers. My understanding is that dealers don't like EV's because it cuts their lucrative repair profits. If the dealers won't sell the EV's then it looks like demand has collapsed. But maybe it's just that the dealers are not pushing the EV's. It seems very suspicious that three months ago EV sales were booming and now they are not, for all brands simultaneously. I suspect a propaganda campaign.
It also seems that Ford's mileage estimator doesn't take into account temperature and they have not added a heat pump to the battery to optimize its temperature. So it is no wonder owners are surprised when the range meter drops by 70 miles when they drive 35 miles.
Yeah IMO trucks were not the way to start out electrifying their fleet. They should have done something like turn the Fiesta into an electric instead of abandoning it, or brought back the Fusion as an electric.
But that would not have mattered if they kept making the same kind of mistakes. Having very unreliable range is a huge problem in any vehicle.
But that would not have mattered if they kept making the same kind of mistakes. Having very unreliable range is a huge problem in any vehicle.
The propaganda compaing would be believing that dealers are conspiring to not give cars that people want to be. Okhams razor is that there is less demand.
Or you could think of it in business terms, dealers want to optimize profit. So they don't conspire together, but they all do the same thing anyway. One of the sources for the article is a national dealers association, which in some sense is certainly a biased source of information.
Sales incentives are set by corporate. The local dealers would have to override those.
I agree but the question is what is there less demand for? Ford's specific offerings, or EVs as a whole?
Generally speaking, EV sales continue to grow, so it would seem this is a Ford-specific issue and it's helpful to look at the reason why Ford's getting it wrong.
Generally speaking, EV sales continue to grow, so it would seem this is a Ford-specific issue and it's helpful to look at the reason why Ford's getting it wrong.
Their bet on hybrids with the Prius in the late 1990s-early 2000s definitely was a worthwhile one.
Toyota didn't really reject the EV hype as much as they had just already invested heavily in alternatives[1] and probably couldn't afford to go the battery route.
In a way, the focus on hydrogen fuel cells is smart; they can in the meantime have their whole hybrid line benefit from any battery tech improvements and slowly build out a decent fueling network.
Unfortunately there may become a slight sunk cost thing around chargers in your home and reuse of those as the first few generations of EVs begin to get replaced. If FCEVs are for sale but you already have a charger in your house that is otherwise gonna go to waste, and you can "refuel" at home, what's the compelling case to buy a new car using a fuel cell?
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1KG0Y0/
In a way, the focus on hydrogen fuel cells is smart; they can in the meantime have their whole hybrid line benefit from any battery tech improvements and slowly build out a decent fueling network.
Unfortunately there may become a slight sunk cost thing around chargers in your home and reuse of those as the first few generations of EVs begin to get replaced. If FCEVs are for sale but you already have a charger in your house that is otherwise gonna go to waste, and you can "refuel" at home, what's the compelling case to buy a new car using a fuel cell?
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1KG0Y0/
The Hydrogen bet was a pretty bad bet too its not going to materialize outside of japan
When measured against that criteria, how well does Tesla actually stand up? Outside of tech and car enthusiasts, people view cars as a tool that gets them from place to place. I don’t care if it’s an EV if it’s more expensive, less reliable and a hassle. I don’t care about self driving features and don’t want my life to revolve around a form of transportation.