Ask HN: What will be obsolete in 10 years?
27 comments
Google Search as we know it today.
"I'm feeling lucky" will find its way back, somehow, as Google tries to one-up LLM-generated answers. Traditional Google Search is already increasingly aiming to supply as much info as possible—and It feels likely an increasing number of Google Search results will be Gemini neé Bard answers (same for Bing, with GPT).
Teaching an LLM to talk about your product will be the new SEO.
Which, should be bullish for Kagi and DuckDuckGo (not affiliated with or an active user of either), as the utility of real search is still so high if done well, something it's hard to shake the feeling that Google has gotten worse at. Perhaps it's time to take it for a serious spin.
"I'm feeling lucky" will find its way back, somehow, as Google tries to one-up LLM-generated answers. Traditional Google Search is already increasingly aiming to supply as much info as possible—and It feels likely an increasing number of Google Search results will be Gemini neé Bard answers (same for Bing, with GPT).
Teaching an LLM to talk about your product will be the new SEO.
Which, should be bullish for Kagi and DuckDuckGo (not affiliated with or an active user of either), as the utility of real search is still so high if done well, something it's hard to shake the feeling that Google has gotten worse at. Perhaps it's time to take it for a serious spin.
* Digital SLRs are already on the way out in favor of mirrorless designs.
* HDMI will be replaced by USB-C or some other multi-purpose standard.
* USB/Audio ports on handheld devices like smartphones.
* General purpose personal computing won't be obsolete, but it will become increasingly obscure.
* Screens will still be around, but I predict a some kind of push for augmented reality devices to take place of screens if devices like the Vision Pro take off.
* HDMI will be replaced by USB-C or some other multi-purpose standard.
* USB/Audio ports on handheld devices like smartphones.
* General purpose personal computing won't be obsolete, but it will become increasingly obscure.
* Screens will still be around, but I predict a some kind of push for augmented reality devices to take place of screens if devices like the Vision Pro take off.
DSLRs, including mirrorless ones, will become rarer and more specialized as consumers use their smartphones for all photography and filming needs. Having a separate device for photography, like a DSLR, will feel like owning vinyl.
Regular large TVs will be replaced by VR glasses more and more for everyday media consumption. It will be like putting on sunglasses. I'm guessing large TVs will combine computer monitor capabilities as we move towards this.
Subway or bus cards will disappear, replaced by phones or touchless entries.
Buying large desktop PCs for gaming or others will disappear instead of laptops (maybe). I feel like the way is like an online hosted gaming platform like Stadia (though I know it didn't pan out).
Regular large TVs will be replaced by VR glasses more and more for everyday media consumption. It will be like putting on sunglasses. I'm guessing large TVs will combine computer monitor capabilities as we move towards this.
Subway or bus cards will disappear, replaced by phones or touchless entries.
Buying large desktop PCs for gaming or others will disappear instead of laptops (maybe). I feel like the way is like an online hosted gaming platform like Stadia (though I know it didn't pan out).
I would say the camera market has pretty much stabilized by now. I don't think phones have much more to offer compared to a modern camera. Using a real camera is way more enjoyable and creates a better or same image as iPhone.
Small internal combustion engines .. cars rolling coal will be collectors items for some time .. but fossil fuel scooters, small motorcycles, leaf blowers, lawn mowers, etc will very likely disapear first.
Big asian cities are already seeing iSwap battery stations for electric scooters | bikes, and the handyman market is rapidly turning electric.
Big asian cities are already seeing iSwap battery stations for electric scooters | bikes, and the handyman market is rapidly turning electric.
There's some interesting developments in rotary engines and other approaches to redesigning internal combustion engines to make them much smaller, more powerful, and even more efficient.
I can't tell the future obviously, but I think there's a lot of life in the internal combustion engine alongside use cases where electric technology makes a lot of sense.
I can't tell the future obviously, but I think there's a lot of life in the internal combustion engine alongside use cases where electric technology makes a lot of sense.
Orbital designs show real promise in various applications - powering drones for one.
I still stand by my prediction that the vast bulk of small combustion engines we see about us today since post WWII - the lawn mowers, leaf blowers, scooters in their million, etc will be replaced by electric motors and rechargable batteris.
It's already happening and makes better sense in any application where batteries can be readily replaced.
I still stand by my prediction that the vast bulk of small combustion engines we see about us today since post WWII - the lawn mowers, leaf blowers, scooters in their million, etc will be replaced by electric motors and rechargable batteris.
It's already happening and makes better sense in any application where batteries can be readily replaced.
Desktop computers. Might take 20 years though.
Even laptops are at risk.
There will be a time when Mobile phones will be able to power multiple monitors and have the processing power of current desktop computers without their heat generation.
Even laptops are at risk.
There will be a time when Mobile phones will be able to power multiple monitors and have the processing power of current desktop computers without their heat generation.
Phones have highly integrated parts, lack of IO ports, toy operating systems, and other major trade-offs, for the sake of size and power usage, which would all be disadvantages or total non-starters in a desktop environment.
This situation hasn't changed in the slightest during the last 10 years. Is there any reason to think it will change during the next 10 years? Even if a future phone could be used in the place of a tower to run a set of desktop peripherals, how is that even useful?
This situation hasn't changed in the slightest during the last 10 years. Is there any reason to think it will change during the next 10 years? Even if a future phone could be used in the place of a tower to run a set of desktop peripherals, how is that even useful?
>This situation hasn't changed in the slightest during the last 10 years.
There has been a significant decrease in desktops in the last decade. My wife works with children (12-18) and their main computing is done on phones - including school assignments, resume building, and applying for college/jobs.
>Even if a future phone could be used in the place of a tower to run a set of desktop peripherals, how is that even useful?
A computer that is customized to your liking, logged in to your account, has a cellular data connection, and is able to fit in your pocket (and you’re already carrying it). It’s an incredible proposition.
There has been a significant decrease in desktops in the last decade. My wife works with children (12-18) and their main computing is done on phones - including school assignments, resume building, and applying for college/jobs.
>Even if a future phone could be used in the place of a tower to run a set of desktop peripherals, how is that even useful?
A computer that is customized to your liking, logged in to your account, has a cellular data connection, and is able to fit in your pocket (and you’re already carrying it). It’s an incredible proposition.
> There has been a significant decrease in desktops in the last decade. My wife works with children (12-18) and their main computing is done on phones - including school assignments, resume building, and applying for college/jobs.
Maybe because they're young and their bodies allow them to do this. I'm near 30 and as soon I have something that's not mainly reading, I prefer my 24 inch screen and separate keyboard and mouse. My only activities on the phone are browsing, chatting, and light reading, things that require little interactions.
Maybe because they're young and their bodies allow them to do this. I'm near 30 and as soon I have something that's not mainly reading, I prefer my 24 inch screen and separate keyboard and mouse. My only activities on the phone are browsing, chatting, and light reading, things that require little interactions.
> There has been a significant decrease in desktops in the last decade.
Indeed, but not because phones have gotten any closer to desktop work.
What good is a phone, today, when using multiple monitors for 3d modelling, video editing, programming, spreadsheets, flight sims, or some such? None whatsoever.
And there's no apparent trend toward it, so it doesn't make much sense to predict when it will be reached.
Desktop usage will likely continue to decline as phones, tablets, VR, and whatever other devices continue to supplant them _in certain areas_, but that's insufficient to render them obsolete.
Indeed, but not because phones have gotten any closer to desktop work.
What good is a phone, today, when using multiple monitors for 3d modelling, video editing, programming, spreadsheets, flight sims, or some such? None whatsoever.
And there's no apparent trend toward it, so it doesn't make much sense to predict when it will be reached.
Desktop usage will likely continue to decline as phones, tablets, VR, and whatever other devices continue to supplant them _in certain areas_, but that's insufficient to render them obsolete.
Maybe a docking station for the phone with all the peripherals plugged into that. That's how I work now with my thinkpad and 3 monitors and other devices already plugged in ready to go.
Samsung has tried to push this a bit in The last few years. It hasn’t really caught on in the us, but I think that is partly because most people spend most of their desk computing time at work, and our phones are more often our personal devices than they are our work devices.
If I had to choose between my new overpriced phone and my old desktop computer I would choose the desktop in a heartbeat. It’s not even close.
This is wishful thinking, but I hope Windows. Especially with the AI and copilot crap, they are giving me more reasons to hate using my computer with every update it seems.
ICE based personal cars.
In my opinion:
- Social media. We're already seeing a backlash towards it due to the effects it has on people's mental health, and I've noticed a large drop in usage from non celebrity/influencers too. Based on this, I suspect it going the same way as smoking; still used by some overly addicted people (and in this case, also those whose job depends on it), but perhaps shunned by much of society.
- Most internet forum scripts. On the other end, I also suspect the likes of vBulletin and Invision Power Board are probably on borrowed time. There's already been a depressing drop in forum usage and new communities of that type being opened, and I question how long these business models will be sustainable.
- Phone calls. Phones themselves are taking over the world, but less and less people are actually calling people on them. Given how much of a mess the system is for spam and scams, and how much other communication software has caught on, I kinda wonder how long we'll even call smartphones 'phones'.
- Television. At least in terms of 'normal' TV, now that streaming seems to be the main way younger people watch TV shows. I suspect a lot of this industry is going to collapse when the older generations start dying off, since many traditional channels and shows are mostly propped up by boomers and older in terms of demographics.
- Physical copies of video games and most other media. As someone who always prefers buying physical copies of everything, I hate this change with a passion. Alas, the numbers don't lie, and many people seem to have switched over to digital/download only/streaming media near entirely. Plus many stores (including major brands) have said they'll stop stocking them too, meaning that eventually it'll come down to whether companies want to distribute in this format solely so their work can be sold on Amazon and their own websites.
- Social media. We're already seeing a backlash towards it due to the effects it has on people's mental health, and I've noticed a large drop in usage from non celebrity/influencers too. Based on this, I suspect it going the same way as smoking; still used by some overly addicted people (and in this case, also those whose job depends on it), but perhaps shunned by much of society.
- Most internet forum scripts. On the other end, I also suspect the likes of vBulletin and Invision Power Board are probably on borrowed time. There's already been a depressing drop in forum usage and new communities of that type being opened, and I question how long these business models will be sustainable.
- Phone calls. Phones themselves are taking over the world, but less and less people are actually calling people on them. Given how much of a mess the system is for spam and scams, and how much other communication software has caught on, I kinda wonder how long we'll even call smartphones 'phones'.
- Television. At least in terms of 'normal' TV, now that streaming seems to be the main way younger people watch TV shows. I suspect a lot of this industry is going to collapse when the older generations start dying off, since many traditional channels and shows are mostly propped up by boomers and older in terms of demographics.
- Physical copies of video games and most other media. As someone who always prefers buying physical copies of everything, I hate this change with a passion. Alas, the numbers don't lie, and many people seem to have switched over to digital/download only/streaming media near entirely. Plus many stores (including major brands) have said they'll stop stocking them too, meaning that eventually it'll come down to whether companies want to distribute in this format solely so their work can be sold on Amazon and their own websites.
Based only on my entourage and people I know:
- Social Media. Maybe it's because everyone here use it as a public place, which means discussions that happens there are the same you'd find in a physical gathering. And people playing status game, not so much private things. Even on WhatsApp where your contact are people you're close with.
- Forums. I think there will be forums still, but with a more reduced scope and smaller communities. But the fact is that most of them are text only. And if you're writing some paragraphs, that can only be done with a proper keyboard.
- Phone calls: I think there's not many things that actually require a phone call, but they're still indispensable for synchronization over something. I don't see them getting away, but we will be switching to something like WhatsApp and FaceTime instead of the old cellular technologies.
- Television: We may switch to a more thematic curation (kinda like playlists), but streaming requires too much interactions. Also live channels.
- Physical copies: Hate is a strong word for me, but I also don't like DRMed files. And I don't like renting. But I do buy games on the PS4 store and on the App Store because I regards them as tied to the platform itself, not something that can be used outside it. And my use of those platforms is restricted to this sphere of activity (I don't like Google tying everything to a single identity and policing it). But everything else, I try to get physical copies and non-drmed files.
- Social Media. Maybe it's because everyone here use it as a public place, which means discussions that happens there are the same you'd find in a physical gathering. And people playing status game, not so much private things. Even on WhatsApp where your contact are people you're close with.
- Forums. I think there will be forums still, but with a more reduced scope and smaller communities. But the fact is that most of them are text only. And if you're writing some paragraphs, that can only be done with a proper keyboard.
- Phone calls: I think there's not many things that actually require a phone call, but they're still indispensable for synchronization over something. I don't see them getting away, but we will be switching to something like WhatsApp and FaceTime instead of the old cellular technologies.
- Television: We may switch to a more thematic curation (kinda like playlists), but streaming requires too much interactions. Also live channels.
- Physical copies: Hate is a strong word for me, but I also don't like DRMed files. And I don't like renting. But I do buy games on the PS4 store and on the App Store because I regards them as tied to the platform itself, not something that can be used outside it. And my use of those platforms is restricted to this sphere of activity (I don't like Google tying everything to a single identity and policing it). But everything else, I try to get physical copies and non-drmed files.
Oh I hate the idea of physical media going away. I just worry that various entertainment industries really want this to happen, and will do whatever it takes to force us to only use digital versions under their control.
And something like WhatsApp or FaceTime replacing phone calls seems very plausible. That's the other thing right there; you don't need a traditional phone to call people anymore, so there's a good chance people will call others in messaging apps rather than via standard calls.
And something like WhatsApp or FaceTime replacing phone calls seems very plausible. That's the other thing right there; you don't need a traditional phone to call people anymore, so there's a good chance people will call others in messaging apps rather than via standard calls.
Ford, GM, Volkswagen, BMW, etc.
GPG? (:
AI
One example I've heard where this will kill a lot of jobs is banking: banks currently need to spend a lot of money having humans parse and develop policy changes so that the bank can remain compliant with changing legislation. I haven't had direct experience, but I've been led to believe that LLMs are already starting to automate this kind of work, and early experiments have been successful.
Aside from banks, I suppose the general principle will apply to any kind of work where we currently need humans to comb through and curate a bunch of data, before regurgitating summaries of it. Historians, statisticians, librarians, accountants, lawyers, doctors and journalists come to mind. I don't claim all these fields will become obsolete per se, but I think we'll, at minimum, see them evolve into new forms.
For example, I'm having trouble imagining how a human applied statistician will be able to compete with a well-prompted LLM which is able to hook into external statistical compute engines when it needs to do some actual number crunching. It doesn't mean human statisticians will no longer exist, but we may see fewer applied statisticians in industry, and the remaining statisticians will earn their crust through either software development or writing about more theoretical approaches in academia. (Despite optimistic appraisals of LLMs, I don't think either software development or academic researchers will be made obsolete within 10 years.)
Aside from LLMs, to think about what technology will be obsolete in 10 years from now, it pays to look at what became obsolete in the last ten years, and why. What we overwhelmingly see is a trend where applications formerly handled by dedicated and/or analogue devices are being absorbed into web applications and smartphones, or equivalent smartphone-like technology in cars and home appliances. It stands to reason that, where it is possible to virtualize and digitize a task, it will happen soon if it hasn't happened yet.
This leads me to another prediction, that TVs will no longer ship with remote controls in 10 years, because TVs will expect you to control them with smartphones.