BYD launches $15,000 EV(thedriven.io)
thedriven.io
BYD launches $15,000 EV
https://thedriven.io/2024/02/22/corolla-killer-byd-launches-us15000-ev-in-direct-attack-on-legacy-makers/
182 comments
At that price, does it matter? You know what a Toyota costs today new? How many people drive their car to 500k km?
Almost everyone puchased will be driven to that extent. Person A from 0-125k selling it to person B who drvies it to 200k selling to person C who drives it to 375k selling it to person D who ...
The car lasts and is driven after it is traded by it's first owner if it remains in good condition. Toyota and their Corolla brand has /EARNED/ the right to be at the top of the tree on that count and maintained it over many decades.
The car lasts and is driven after it is traded by it's first owner if it remains in good condition. Toyota and their Corolla brand has /EARNED/ the right to be at the top of the tree on that count and maintained it over many decades.
Yes, but there is no incentive for Person A to choose a brand new Corolla when it's $22K and the alternative is $15K. The value depreciation when they sell to person B will be lower than the Corolla, especially when factoring the fuel savings in.
Why do you think there will be a lower value depreciation for a Chinese EV than a Toyota? Toyotas have insane resale value. We bought a 2012 Toyota 4Runner used for $30,000 in 2016. KBB on it now, at 12 years old and 130,000 miles, is still $15-18k.
> Why do you think there will be a lower value depreciation for a Chinese EV than a Toyota?
Because it's cheaper to buy and cheaper to drive.
Let's start with your example (12 years, 130K miles, 50% depreciation). Let's assume that the EV depreciates much more (80%):
Corolla value depreciation = $11K
BYD Value depreciation: $12K
From a purely financial perspective, it doesn't mean to invest $22K instead of $15K for a $1K gain after 12 years.
Now the calculation above does not take the energy costs into account [1]:
Petrol cost @ 130K miles = $20K
Electric cost @ 130K miles = $4.5K
[1] https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf
Because it's cheaper to buy and cheaper to drive.
Let's start with your example (12 years, 130K miles, 50% depreciation). Let's assume that the EV depreciates much more (80%):
Corolla value depreciation = $11K
BYD Value depreciation: $12K
From a purely financial perspective, it doesn't mean to invest $22K instead of $15K for a $1K gain after 12 years.
Now the calculation above does not take the energy costs into account [1]:
Petrol cost @ 130K miles = $20K
Electric cost @ 130K miles = $4.5K
[1] https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf
Nailed it, that's the point. I don't know why people love cars that last forever, even if financially it doesn't make sense for the first owner.
Because they’re emotionally tied to the idea of longevity vs service life.
>Yes, but there is no incentive for Person A to choose a brand new Corolla when it's $22K and the alternative is $15K
"Hey I know Corollas last a while, and wtf is this weird-ass company I've never heard of? I'm sticking with Toyota."
^ Incentive enough.
"Hey I know Corollas last a while, and wtf is this weird-ass company I've never heard of? I'm sticking with Toyota."
^ Incentive enough.
In a few years it'll be like "Oh, it's BYD, they're everywhere right now, of course I'll buy it second hand".
I bought a 2002 Corolla in 2011, gave it to a relative in 2019, who recently sold it for more than half what I paid 12 years prior.
Not 500k km but past 300k ie your point is spot on
Not 500k km but past 300k ie your point is spot on
Is there data around this? I have personally never seen a personal car much beyond 200,000 miles.
In my circle of friends/family/neighbors/acquaintances, it's common to have a vehicle over 200k miles. Over 300k is noteworthy but not unheard of. Both of my cars are over 275k (bought them a little before the 250k mark).
One guy I see regularly is driving a 400k mile minivan. At my previous job I saw a customer driving a 500k mile Corolla, as well as a couple of customers with 400k, and countless over 200k.
This is in Kansas.
One guy I see regularly is driving a 400k mile minivan. At my previous job I saw a customer driving a 500k mile Corolla, as well as a couple of customers with 400k, and countless over 200k.
This is in Kansas.
My 2004 Ford Mustang had 382k miles. This is the best picture I have (did you know that Google Photos can search for "odometer"??)
https://photos.app.goo.gl/rKMXEzRkR7NauPaB9
I received the car at about 370k miles, drove it about 10k more for ~2 years in college. The only problem I ever had with it was the battery sucked in the winter.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/rKMXEzRkR7NauPaB9
I received the car at about 370k miles, drove it about 10k more for ~2 years in college. The only problem I ever had with it was the battery sucked in the winter.
I think they are talking kilometers
I have a '97 Jeep XJ at ~214,000 miles. They do exist :)
Hasn't rusted through?
Nope. That's mostly (I guess?) an issue in places with a lot of winter months that use salt on the roads instead of sand. It's had a bit of rust, but nothing a buzzbox welder and some steel sheets couldn't patch.
If price is your only concern you could also buy a 1990 Corolla for a fraction of that price too. And it’ll likely still run pretty flawlessly.
I wonder if these will stand the test of time is the point I’m trying to make.
I wonder if these will stand the test of time is the point I’m trying to make.
I was looking for a car for my kid last night and stumbled upon this gem: https://www.craigslist.org/about/best/hou/6565526716.html
Not all Toyotas stand the test of time either.
We owned one that barely made it to 120k miles (Matrix, which was essentially a hatchback Corolla) and would have required more money to keep it running than the vehicle was worth.
And yes, it was well maintained.
We owned one that barely made it to 120k miles (Matrix, which was essentially a hatchback Corolla) and would have required more money to keep it running than the vehicle was worth.
And yes, it was well maintained.
I loved my Matrix, but it was a dual venture with Pontiac. I always assumed that was part of the problem.
The weird thing about that is that the Pontiac version (Vibe) was built in Fremont, CA on the same assembly line as the Corolla, but the Matrix was built in Ontario. So you actually got the better car if you went with the GM badge!
(And yes, that Fremont factory that built the Corolla is now the Tesla factory)
(And yes, that Fremont factory that built the Corolla is now the Tesla factory)
My dad bought a corolla in early '90s, which he used for over 20 years without significant issues. We eventually sold it and got a new car mainly because of the much better safety measures in modern vehicles.
I was not aware there was an EV Corolla in 1990..?
I see no mention of this on the usual car&drivers.
I see no mention of this on the usual car&drivers.
There was, however, an EV RAV4 in 1997 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV)
There's one I see in my local city center all the time, they live about two miles away so not a big trip. :)
Cool! Thanks for the link.
This mindset is why everything is getting worse and waste is increasing.
By now we should have exceptionally long lasting engineered products at low prices because of “technology” and productivity.
By now we should have exceptionally long lasting engineered products at low prices because of “technology” and productivity.
[deleted]
If a car is half the price and lasts half as long, what's the issue? Why do we need to gatekeep car ownership for people that can't afford to buy a car that lasts 2 decades? You bring up waste as an issue, but I don't see anything intrinsically wrong with waste, aside from any externalities associated with it. If that's what you're concerned about, those should be taxed at the source, rather than letting that slide but trying to regulate it by enforcing minimum durability standards.
> aside from any externalities associated with it
lol "i don't see any problems with waste aside from the problems with waste"
have you ever see those drone shots of children playing on 90ft mountains of fast fashion discards in chile and ghana or whatever? when you watch that, do you nod along sagely because the free market working perfectly and that's comforting for you
also, i disagree with the premise that we are "gatekeeping" car ownership unless we race to the bottom. you can buy used cars!
lol "i don't see any problems with waste aside from the problems with waste"
have you ever see those drone shots of children playing on 90ft mountains of fast fashion discards in chile and ghana or whatever? when you watch that, do you nod along sagely because the free market working perfectly and that's comforting for you
also, i disagree with the premise that we are "gatekeeping" car ownership unless we race to the bottom. you can buy used cars!
>lol "i don't see any problems with waste aside from the problems with waste"
And if you read the sentence right after, you'd see my alternate proposal rather than trying to set an arbitrary durability threshold.
>If that's what you're concerned about, those should be taxed at the source, rather than letting that slide but trying to regulate it by enforcing minimum durability standards.
And if you read the sentence right after, you'd see my alternate proposal rather than trying to set an arbitrary durability threshold.
>If that's what you're concerned about, those should be taxed at the source, rather than letting that slide but trying to regulate it by enforcing minimum durability standards.
That’s a good description of the insane dystopia we’re all culpable in.
Born into this nightmare with no ways out
Born into this nightmare with no ways out
The MSRP of a baseline 2024 Corolla is $22,050. No idea what you actually pay out the door.
Assuming both of those sticker prices are accurate, I might still be leaning towards the Toyota. I know it will last for a long time and have no problems obtaining parts/repairs so long as I own it.
Assuming both of those sticker prices are accurate, I might still be leaning towards the Toyota. I know it will last for a long time and have no problems obtaining parts/repairs so long as I own it.
I don't know about now, but I was in the market for cars during Covid and the dealers were truly jacking up the prices. Corollas were definitely not in the 22k range. Hopefully the situation improved.
I assume there are lots of people out there that can't afford a $22k car but they can afford a $11k, even if it's low quality.
They can get a $11k high quality second-hand Corolla.
Many people don't want second-hand cars
What? Most people actually do want a second-hand car.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passe...
I've never bought a new car in my life.
A new car is great but loses on average 10% of its value as soon as it leaves the dealer's lot, and after 5 years, depreciates to 40% of its value. You can often get a barely used car for a lot less than its MSRP.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passe...
I've never bought a new car in my life.
A new car is great but loses on average 10% of its value as soon as it leaves the dealer's lot, and after 5 years, depreciates to 40% of its value. You can often get a barely used car for a lot less than its MSRP.
As one data point, Last week I bought a 2024 Toyota Corolla with 29k€. It has midrange options and a premium color finish.
the Car and Driver recommended trim level is $25k, and a random google search says 12 years (across all vehicles) is an average ownership period and ~13,700 miles/year. so napkin math and the average is over 250k km for the vehicle lifetime. i suspect toyota is meaningfully higher, but can’t prove it.
at that price, and with those economics, i think a great many people would care
lol i found an uncited figure from a toyota dealership saying the average miles driven is 200k - 250k, which is ~400,000km on the high end https://www.toyotaofclermont.com/research/how-long-do-toyota...
at that price, and with those economics, i think a great many people would care
lol i found an uncited figure from a toyota dealership saying the average miles driven is 200k - 250k, which is ~400,000km on the high end https://www.toyotaofclermont.com/research/how-long-do-toyota...
Add $1-2k in fuel savings a year. If you have home solar even more.
Maybe, but somehow I don’t see the majority of people buying a sub $30,000 car having home solar.
Most people I know would never even consider buying a new car and pay more like $5k (maybe max $10k), nothing near $30k. But lots of them have home solar. I can see them going for a new EV if EVs are much cheaper than for an equivalent ICE car.
I was curious so I looked it up. The 2024 Corolla starts at $21,900 in the US. The cheapest '24 I could find was the Nissan Versa at $16,390.
Of course, neither of these are electric. But they are also well known makes in the American market.
Of course, neither of these are electric. But they are also well known makes in the American market.
TCO. Corolla + gas > BYD + electric.
Plus all of the other costs such as repairs, factored with life span.
If I have to replace a BYD every 3 years at $15k, a Corolla that lasts 15+ is going to come out ahead.
If I have to replace a BYD every 3 years at $15k, a Corolla that lasts 15+ is going to come out ahead.
Minus resale.
> At that price, does it matter?
There is a massive environmental impact to build a car, so yes. Absolutely.
There is a massive environmental impact to build a car, so yes. Absolutely.
that is the point. if you had an old corolla you might not care about the price of any new vehicle. and this isn’t just new, it is new to (limited) market. unproven, over time.
$15k is sufficient to make most individuals hesitate briefly. perhaps you have enough saved away to be a bit more cavalier with such amounts.
$15k is sufficient to make most individuals hesitate briefly. perhaps you have enough saved away to be a bit more cavalier with such amounts.
The average price of a new car in the US is ~$48k. This car competes against new cars, not old, used cars.
https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/people-spe...
I don’t know anyone who would hesitate at $15k considering current state of the auto market. I do know there’s lots of middle class and below who would finance it and give it a chance, versus a $500-$1000 monthly note at current vehicle prices and interest rates.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/auto-loan-average-payments-2023...
https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/people-spe...
I don’t know anyone who would hesitate at $15k considering current state of the auto market. I do know there’s lots of middle class and below who would finance it and give it a chance, versus a $500-$1000 monthly note at current vehicle prices and interest rates.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/auto-loan-average-payments-2023...
Average price of a vehicle is not a good metric for this. If a bunch of Americans finance $150k trucks (and they do!), that inflates the average, but it's not relevant.
What's relevant is the lowest price for the economy/compact model of a mainstream brand, which seem to be around $20k. For a $5k difference (or less) I don't know if gambling on a new Chinese electric car would be that attractive.
What's relevant is the lowest price for the economy/compact model of a mainstream brand, which seem to be around $20k. For a $5k difference (or less) I don't know if gambling on a new Chinese electric car would be that attractive.
that is a very strange claim to try and make. this car competes against anything that can move a body. how well it competes is yet to be seen.
Those high prices were in a period of both low interest rates and, during the pandemic, limited supply pushed to the most expensive models. I will be surprised if they stay that high under current interest rates and economic concerns.
I have my doubts about that being the average car price. Is that considering all consumer vehicles (SUVs, trucks)?
Baseline Toyota/Honda is still going to be ~$25k
Baseline Toyota/Honda is still going to be ~$25k
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g39628015/best-selling-car...
For a while, trucks and SUVs hold a significant portion of most sold vehicles in the US.
For a while, trucks and SUVs hold a significant portion of most sold vehicles in the US.
Do you have the same stat for median, instead of average?
In 10 years both of them will be utterly outdated, but it might be easier to replace the battery with a cheaper lighter 2034 model. Resale price of both will be governed by the price of new equivalent electric cars in 2034. If you’re allowed to drive the Toyota near a city. It’ll be like smoking laws in 20 years.
(We currently drive an old ICE Toyota because post-Covid prices were nuts and I’m not overcapitalising given the above.)
(We currently drive an old ICE Toyota because post-Covid prices were nuts and I’m not overcapitalising given the above.)
We have an MG ZS ev, and we've done 110,000km in 3 years. Battery capacity is at 93% which I think is pretty good, but I don't intend to be driving this for 30 years.
How have you found it? I almost bought one, but charging stations weren't very convenient in my location at the time, I kind of regret it now.
The newer models are much better than what I have. It's surprisingly quick off the lights, which is fun because it looks like a very ordinary SUV.
It's quiet, the glass roof is nice - I'll never go back to a petrol car.
It's quiet, the glass roof is nice - I'll never go back to a petrol car.
The article isn’t suggesting this is a better vehicle than the Corolla. It’s saying it’ll eat the Corolla’s market share.
Easily, assuming decent quality. Electric motors last a lot longer than IC engines. Batteries can be replaced. Bearings etc about the same.
What about software updates? So much of the car relies on well-managed up-to-date software, far beyond what any corolla has.
All new cars, including Toyta Corollas, have a lot of software in them, and it should be updated from time to time, e.g. to fix bugs. For example, see:
https://www.toyota.com/firmware-updates#
https://www.toyota.com/firmware-updates#
Probably the EV will last even longer given the comparative simplicity of an electric motor vs internal combustion engine.
If enough of these are sold, it doesn't matter if they're reliable, since repairing any issues will become cheap.
Garages all round the country will be able to disassemble and reassemble to swap any part in minutes, and there will be a super cheap non-oem clone of every part that fails.
Garages all round the country will be able to disassemble and reassemble to swap any part in minutes, and there will be a super cheap non-oem clone of every part that fails.
I bet a lot of owners like to assume they can arrive at their destination most of the time when they get in their car.
EV driving costs me 3p/mile vs 12p/mile for my old diesel. That would be a £27k saving on fuel over that distance.
Is a 30-year-old Corolla that safe?
who cares. you can buy 3 of them
I never seen a Corolla go to 500,000km... Are they common
In China. No word on if this will ever make it outside that market.
Never the less it’s a good achievement. Auto industry is continuing to grow there and going as close to majority EV as possible out the gate is a net win
Never the less it’s a good achievement. Auto industry is continuing to grow there and going as close to majority EV as possible out the gate is a net win
China is the second largest market for the Corolla after North America (as of 2016 at least) [1]. So even if it only kills the Corolla in China, that’s a pretty big deal.
[1] https://global.toyota/en/corolla50th/history/by_the_numbers/
[1] https://global.toyota/en/corolla50th/history/by_the_numbers/
BYD’s success is in no small part due to substantial government subsidies.
We’re not talking about relatively small tax or CO2 incentives, but rather large upfront interest free loans with questionable expectations of repayment.
This meant that BYD could leapfrog the growth stage and invest directly into new large automated factories before even having found market fit.
I expect they’ll do well in smaller countries, but larger western countries with existing domestic car makers will impose large tarrifs to neutralise their unfair advantage.
We’re not talking about relatively small tax or CO2 incentives, but rather large upfront interest free loans with questionable expectations of repayment.
This meant that BYD could leapfrog the growth stage and invest directly into new large automated factories before even having found market fit.
I expect they’ll do well in smaller countries, but larger western countries with existing domestic car makers will impose large tarrifs to neutralise their unfair advantage.
At least in my LATAM country, BYD already has a hefty chunk of the electric car market. Most of our capital’s public transport buses are BYD as well. Maybe they target emerging economies
It could make it to lots of developing world markets, where BYD already has market share. So it won't just be china, but lots of markets that just aren't the USA and perhaps Western Europe or Japan.
There are heaps BYDs driving around here in Australia. I'd say by now more than Teslas
My BYD Atto 3 is costing me A$155 a week, with a rebate equivalent to 35 weekly payments, and I'll run it largely for free via solar. My whole car and CTP registration is costing me the same as 83 litres of petrol a week. The novated lease FBT exemption is incredibly generous (excessively so - it's bad policy)
The BYD Seagull (cost about 17k AUD / 12k USD) didn't make it to Australia. There was some mention about safety standards. Hopefully this new model makes it further around the world,
The BYD Seal, BYD's Tesla 3 clone down to the recessed door handles, is available in Australia and selling like hotcakes, not least because at ~AU$50k it's $20k less than a $70k Tesla.
They are going to Mexico to test NA market.
I have been saying this for a few months now that chinese ev car manufacturers are coming and they will do to japanese car manufacturers what the Japanese car manufacturers did to american and European car manufacturers. Japanese car manufacturers also started of being considered cheap but unreliable. But they kept improving over time to gain reputation of reliability. I expect Chinese car OEM to do the same add the fact that with solar, wind and battery electricity costs are falling 10% a year. Ice cars will be priced out rapidly in the next few years even used ice cars.
I don't know. Japanese electronics also started as cheap knockoffs of Western devices, and they've improved. Chinese electronic brands are still questionable after a few decades.
The Japanese strategy (or culture) seems to be about improving quality over time, while Chinese business strategy is to stay as cheap as possible.
The Japanese strategy (or culture) seems to be about improving quality over time, while Chinese business strategy is to stay as cheap as possible.
The questionable brands like... Anker, DJI, TCL? I mean, at least let's give them credit where credit is due, they've improved in quality for the past couple of decades. Even BYD itself, a decade ago wasn't not even close to be as good as it is right now.
> The questionable brands like... Anker, DJI, TCL? I mean, at least let's give them credit where credit is due
I'm not saying they are all bad, but the quality and brand recognition is all over the place. They haven't produced a Sony, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic JVC, AKAI, etc yet.
I'm not saying they are all bad, but the quality and brand recognition is all over the place. They haven't produced a Sony, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic JVC, AKAI, etc yet.
Sorry, but I don't get your point. All three I mentioned are in top 10 of their respective markets. North America is not always their main market target, as it's hard to beat the incumbents, especially when you consider tariffs. Think something like, I've almost never seen anyone using Xiaomi/OPPO phones in North America, but have noticed people using them in Taiwan/Singapore, where the price isn't the only reason why someone would buy them.
That being said, a bit more relevant market segment - bus manufacturing, is also full of Chinese companies that are producing those big boys left and right. They're even opening (opened? haven't kept up with the news) a BYD plant here in Canada.
Writing this makes me feel like I'm going full on Chinese-shilling, but I enjoy competitive markets and reading about them. You're right that brand names are definitely not as recognized as Sharp/Panasonic, but I think our age shows a bit here. I don't think younger people have heard of Sharp or JVC as they're not common household names anymore, but I can guarantee anyone who has ever thought of buying a drone has heard of DJI.
That being said, a bit more relevant market segment - bus manufacturing, is also full of Chinese companies that are producing those big boys left and right. They're even opening (opened? haven't kept up with the news) a BYD plant here in Canada.
Writing this makes me feel like I'm going full on Chinese-shilling, but I enjoy competitive markets and reading about them. You're right that brand names are definitely not as recognized as Sharp/Panasonic, but I think our age shows a bit here. I don't think younger people have heard of Sharp or JVC as they're not common household names anymore, but I can guarantee anyone who has ever thought of buying a drone has heard of DJI.
You missed the Korean manufacturers in the middle. They already ate the Japanese manufacturers' lunch. So the Chinese are coming after the Koreans.
In electronics like tv phones etc yes but they did not beat Toyota/Japan when it comes to cars.
>They already ate the Japanese manufacturers' lunch.
Did they? https://www.statista.com/statistics/243595/vehicle-sales-of-...
Did they? https://www.statista.com/statistics/243595/vehicle-sales-of-...
Kia and Hyundai did not eat the Japanese car makers lunch. They’re insecure and crappy, and if you drive one in certain areas you’ll be pulled over for possibly stealing said car brand. Kia had a generous warranty which was enough to tide over some but nobody says that Kia/Hundai are good brands just the most stolen cars with bad security. They need to be sued for causing its owners such a disturbance for driving a tainted brand.
Anyone else remember the Yugo? Lots of enthusiasm for that car when it launched for $4999 or whatever. I knew someone who owned two of them … one for parts, the other to drive.
Low prices can get you only so far in the US market. Once there are doubts about quality or safety, you’re toast.
Details: https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/a-quick-history...
Low prices can get you only so far in the US market. Once there are doubts about quality or safety, you’re toast.
Details: https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/a-quick-history...
Nah, let's let Dan Neil defenestrate it in grand form. "Yugo. Or not."
https://content.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,...
https://content.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,...
There was a car dealer in the UK that had a buy one, get one free offer on the Dodge Avenger SXT in 2008. [0] Apparently there are only 107 left of that particular model on UK roads, with a further 36 cars classed as 'SORN' [1][2]. I reckon the latter are being used for parts.
[0] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/nov/08/automotive-...
[1] https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/dodge_avenger_sxt
[2] https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/dodge_avenger_sxt_a
[0] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/nov/08/automotive-...
[1] https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/dodge_avenger_sxt
[2] https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/dodge_avenger_sxt_a
> Once there are doubts about quality or safety, you’re toast.
If they did only as well as Tesla, that’d be a big success.
If they did only as well as Tesla, that’d be a big success.
Reliability was likely the most damning problem. People drive dangerously unsafe cars, but people cannot stand unreliable cars.
Nearly all of the problems listed for the Yugo came from a terrible internal combustion power train.
Nearly all of the problems listed for the Yugo came from a terrible internal combustion power train.
I was fond of that car largely because it enabled me to make the following bad pun: Hyundai and Yugo we're going to merge, but decided not to when they realized the most logical name for the merged company would be:
Yodai
Yodai
“It’s built for efficiency, not speed!” Samuel Jackson’s character about the Yugo in Die Hard with a Vemgeance
Except in this case there are very few things in this car that even could break, or need any maintenance. I was wondering when such a car would appear. There’s no rational reason why a basic EV should cost 40-50k.
There’s everything else besides the engine? Most consumables are in the rolling stock (tires, brakes, suspension, …)
The least reliable part of any ICE car is its engine. A ton of moving parts, difficult thermals, lots of finicky electronics subject to vibration, pumps, fluids, oils, fuel system, you name it. Then theres also the transmission. None of that is even in the picture in an EV.
Yeah but that tend to not fail randomly too often. You do need to maintain and change them but that is largely dependent on use and something you do on schedule.
I have a lot of problems on a motorcycle right now that are entirely related to the engine, I wish it would be electric but they are still too expensive for the capabilities…
I have a lot of problems on a motorcycle right now that are entirely related to the engine, I wish it would be electric but they are still too expensive for the capabilities…
And in those areas, they use standard parts of established manufacturers.
I am _amazed_ at how fast I've talked myself in to considering a Chinese car. The BYD Dolphin[1] fits my families needs very well and it's only some sense of latent 'eww newcomers to the market' that pushes back.
Legacy automakers don't make electric cars that fit my needs!
30 years ago we were leery about Hyundai, 30 years before that Honda. I'm just amazed to observe this shift again.
[1] https://bydautomotive.com.au/dolphin
Legacy automakers don't make electric cars that fit my needs!
30 years ago we were leery about Hyundai, 30 years before that Honda. I'm just amazed to observe this shift again.
[1] https://bydautomotive.com.au/dolphin
Can this charge my house yet?
Still waiting for a decent car that can be a battery for my house. A cheap BYD with an LFP battery would be a perfect candidate.
Still waiting for a decent car that can be a battery for my house. A cheap BYD with an LFP battery would be a perfect candidate.
Someone please explain to me how the math works here. $15k usd is insanely low, do they really have that economy of scale or is this a subsidized attack on major car manufacturers, or is it both? Or is it something else?
I agree the math is a bit off, so let's look at the percentages.
The current Toyota Corolla, in 3-box sedan form, starts at 119,800 RMB in China. The BYD Qin is also a 3-box sedan, similar dimensions, but starts at 109,800 RMB, or 8.4% cheaper.
To compare this directly to the US, a 2024 Corolla starts at $22,050. So this would be like launching the Qin in the US at $19,995. If you did the same percentages it'd be $20,210, but "$19,995" gets you the "Under $20,000" which would be extremely noteworthy in the US where there's not much left under $20K. They'd probably be willing to eat $215/unit of margin at launch just to be able to run with "Starting at under $20K" in advertisements until the sales really roll in, then raise the price a bit 2 years later to get the margin they wanted.
The current Toyota Corolla, in 3-box sedan form, starts at 119,800 RMB in China. The BYD Qin is also a 3-box sedan, similar dimensions, but starts at 109,800 RMB, or 8.4% cheaper.
To compare this directly to the US, a 2024 Corolla starts at $22,050. So this would be like launching the Qin in the US at $19,995. If you did the same percentages it'd be $20,210, but "$19,995" gets you the "Under $20,000" which would be extremely noteworthy in the US where there's not much left under $20K. They'd probably be willing to eat $215/unit of margin at launch just to be able to run with "Starting at under $20K" in advertisements until the sales really roll in, then raise the price a bit 2 years later to get the margin they wanted.
My neighbor in a developing country bought a brand new Hyundai sedan ICE for $10k. Power windows, AC, rearview camera and infotainment...
For some reason cars cost a lot in the US. Even with safety standards and features.
For some reason cars cost a lot in the US. Even with safety standards and features.
In a word: Tariffs
Source? I searched around and couldn't find the tariff rate on sedans. There's a bunch of results for Trump's proposed 25% tariff and existing "chicken tax" on 25% for trucks, but nothing for sedans. Moreover, even if we go with the rate for trucks, that would mean that the truck would cost 12.5k, which is more but still in the "ridiculously cheap" price range.
Right here, search for "Dutiable Entry": https://www.cbp.gov/trade/basic-import-export/importing-car#...
Although, notably it's not as high as I expected.
Although, notably it's not as high as I expected.
I’d be interested to see if it would pass a US crash test. Airbags don’t do much if the structure fails catastrophically.
I think this is for the Chinese market only right now?
Besides, 48 kWh battery is pretty small. Newer Chevy Bolts pack on 66 kWhs, and those vehicles are priced pretty low as-is.
As with most standard models, I'd bet there are a lot of features you'd want requiring an upgrade to a higher trim.
Besides, 48 kWh battery is pretty small. Newer Chevy Bolts pack on 66 kWhs, and those vehicles are priced pretty low as-is.
As with most standard models, I'd bet there are a lot of features you'd want requiring an upgrade to a higher trim.
How much does it weigh? The battery size expectations in the American market are skewed because the manufacturers have been chasing the high-profit margin SUV market with the idea that everyone is taking a huge vehicle on all-day drives. Something sized for normal urban usage is far more efficient.
It would be more efficient, but that's not what American drivers want. They want a huge, luxurious vehicle they can take on all-day drives, even though they pretty much never do, and just use it to go to work by themselves or get groceries. They they cry and moan about how much new cars cost and how much fuel costs...
America isn't singular. The rich buy luxury new cars, the poor buy luxury used cars. The problem is that doesn't leave much of a market for economy new cars.
A lot of SEA countries as well as Russia's FarEast have limited used Japanese imports (Japan makes it hard to own a car past 5-6 years) because the used Japanese cars can destroy their new car market.
A lot of SEA countries as well as Russia's FarEast have limited used Japanese imports (Japan makes it hard to own a car past 5-6 years) because the used Japanese cars can destroy their new car market.
No, many if not most older people prefer first-hand cars, even if they're small and look dumb (at least where I live)
Claimed CLTC (China light-duty vehicle test cycle) ranges:
- with 48 kWh battery pack, up to 261 ml (420 km)
- with 57.6 kWh battery pack 316 mi (510 km)
- there is also apparently a 71.7 kWh battery pack option
CLTC ranges are supposed to be ~35% higher than EPA ranges.
Can't find warranty length or details.
- with 48 kWh battery pack, up to 261 ml (420 km)
- with 57.6 kWh battery pack 316 mi (510 km)
- there is also apparently a 71.7 kWh battery pack option
CLTC ranges are supposed to be ~35% higher than EPA ranges.
Can't find warranty length or details.
If that’s accurate they are very close to the range of a compact gas car, at around the same price. Factor in the gas cost (especially in Europe) and it’s a pretty great deal.
I hope they get to export them in EU to disrupt the market a bit…
> CLTC ranges are supposed to be ~35% higher than EPA ranges.
A very polite way of saying "the usual specification-bullshitting the Chinese are famous for."
A very polite way of saying "the usual specification-bullshitting the Chinese are famous for."
I didn't say that and I don't think it's helpful to use language like that. The EU quoted ranges are also higher than the EPA ranges:
> "The European Union + some other territories (Turkey, Israel) rely on WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure), which replaced the wildly optimistic and now obsolete NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) in 2019.
The CLTC (China Light Duty Vehicle Test Cycle) replaced the NEDC in China and is usually the most unrealistically optimistic of the three.
...To make things a little confusing, though, not every automaker applies the results from the tests equally.*
https://insideevs.com/features/343231/heres-how-to-calculate...
> "The European Union + some other territories (Turkey, Israel) rely on WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure), which replaced the wildly optimistic and now obsolete NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) in 2019.
The CLTC (China Light Duty Vehicle Test Cycle) replaced the NEDC in China and is usually the most unrealistically optimistic of the three.
...To make things a little confusing, though, not every automaker applies the results from the tests equally.*
https://insideevs.com/features/343231/heres-how-to-calculate...
Making things is not always all that expensive if you don’t have to pay a lot for labor. 18650 batteries can be produced for $0.75/cell at the absolute cheapest. A 48kWh pack has about 5000 18650s, so thats ~$3750. The rest of it probably costs $5000 so they still have a decent margin.
On a similar note, a GWM Tank 300 that cost 1/5 or 1/10 of Mercedes G-Wagon price (depending on the countries) is as good if not better in term of interior luxury, moving from A to B and off-road capability [1]. It now has reached its 300K milestone production recently and has 5-star NCAP safety rating. It has taken 4WD scene in China by storm and fast becoming Corolla of 4WD world.
[1]Cybertank 300 Is A Batshit Crazy $47K Chinese SUV With 227 HP:
https://carnewschina.com/2021/08/17/cybertank-300-crazy-47-0...
[1]Cybertank 300 Is A Batshit Crazy $47K Chinese SUV With 227 HP:
https://carnewschina.com/2021/08/17/cybertank-300-crazy-47-0...
Cool vehicle, but comparing it to a Mercedes G-Class platform that has been refined and optimized over 45 years and entrusted by militaries around the world is one hell of a stretch.
This looks more like a cheap Jeep alternative with an attempt at a luxury interior (that looks ultra tacky and cheap to me, but to each their own).
I’m always surprised at how HN will rant about cheap Chinese products on Amazon all day, but the moment a press release for a Chinese G-Class knockoff comes out we’re supposed to believe it’s the superior vehicle.
This looks more like a cheap Jeep alternative with an attempt at a luxury interior (that looks ultra tacky and cheap to me, but to each their own).
I’m always surprised at how HN will rant about cheap Chinese products on Amazon all day, but the moment a press release for a Chinese G-Class knockoff comes out we’re supposed to believe it’s the superior vehicle.
It helps that the bar on the Mercedes side has been falling faster than a sack of bricks for 10 years now.
I doubt anyone who’s actually been in both would say they’re comparable at all.
Even in photos it looks like a tacky knock off.
Even in photos it looks like a tacky knock off.
"Good not if better in terms of interior luxury"?
You're wildly delusional or have never actually been in a Mercedes, Audi, or BMW. Maybe the pre-reworked G-wagons - those were basically tarted up army trucks - but definitely not the new ones.
https://youtu.be/ML_zUFp0igY?t=278
Listen to the noises the interior components make when opened/closed and how they look. It's all super cheap, hard, undampened plastic.
Another video - listen to the noise the door makes when it closes. There isn't a lick of sound deadening material in there and the door is probably made of thin-as-paper metal. https://youtu.be/t0vM3B9oJqs?t=74
Keep watching and you'll see how bad the stitching is on the back of the front passenger seat.
Here you can see the dome light plastic is painted silver and it's already been scratched up badly, and you can hear the lack of dampening and sound deadening when he actuates the switches (and note there's no soft on/off): https://youtu.be/t0vM3B9oJqs?t=86
...then you can hear the entire back seat rattle as he squeezes the headrest.
Here he slaps the rear passenger seat and it sounds like the sort of noise I'd expect out of a 1990's Chevy: https://youtu.be/t0vM3B9oJqs?t=92
Guaranteed that when driving that thing on any sort of road that isn't perfectly smooth, it'll be a veritable din of rattling.
You're wildly delusional or have never actually been in a Mercedes, Audi, or BMW. Maybe the pre-reworked G-wagons - those were basically tarted up army trucks - but definitely not the new ones.
https://youtu.be/ML_zUFp0igY?t=278
Listen to the noises the interior components make when opened/closed and how they look. It's all super cheap, hard, undampened plastic.
Another video - listen to the noise the door makes when it closes. There isn't a lick of sound deadening material in there and the door is probably made of thin-as-paper metal. https://youtu.be/t0vM3B9oJqs?t=74
Keep watching and you'll see how bad the stitching is on the back of the front passenger seat.
Here you can see the dome light plastic is painted silver and it's already been scratched up badly, and you can hear the lack of dampening and sound deadening when he actuates the switches (and note there's no soft on/off): https://youtu.be/t0vM3B9oJqs?t=86
...then you can hear the entire back seat rattle as he squeezes the headrest.
Here he slaps the rear passenger seat and it sounds like the sort of noise I'd expect out of a 1990's Chevy: https://youtu.be/t0vM3B9oJqs?t=92
Guaranteed that when driving that thing on any sort of road that isn't perfectly smooth, it'll be a veritable din of rattling.
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It won’t be a corolla killer unless it has the same after market parts and maintenance, buying a 15k car to replace the battery later for half that price won’t do it.
If 200000 miles on some very bumpy roads haven’t killed my Corolla then I would not expect some ev to kill it. Jokes aside, the Corolla is loved by its owners for its high reliability at the low price point. Fixating on the price only looks at half the picture. This is maybe a Hyundai killer, but it will take 15 years for people to prove that any car has vested the Corolla for reliability.
> but it will take 15 years
There are tons of BYD electric/hybrid taxi out there with >400,000km odometer.
see also: a 100,000km durability test for BYD vs Tesla https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdl5KzUz_kk&list=PLju1MY2dLC...
There are tons of BYD electric/hybrid taxi out there with >400,000km odometer.
see also: a 100,000km durability test for BYD vs Tesla https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdl5KzUz_kk&list=PLju1MY2dLC...
Good point, there is probably a path toward consumer acceptance of reliability, but commercial and personal car markets are different and that can’t be overlooked. Taxis get regular maintenance and only last a few years. Personal vehicles get spotty maintenance and are kept for more than a decade. This stresses the reliability of the car in different ways. For one thing taxi companies don’t just drive 10k miles with a messed up timing belt. For another the manufacturer is almost guaranteed to sell parts for 5 years after production. But 15 years is a different question. That gets into yard trip territory.
I am sure there is a path forward for BYD, but it will take more than a decade for that to establish itself in the market.
We only have the perspective as observers outside of China, so I would caution how we interpret this article.
However, it may be possible that this COULD be the Corolla for the Chinese market. They do have a lot of EV manufacturers (300+ I believe?).
State-side (or even worldwide)? It takes some more convincing. And the article doesn't explicitly say it would be the next Corolla killer for the US market..
However, it may be possible that this COULD be the Corolla for the Chinese market. They do have a lot of EV manufacturers (300+ I believe?).
State-side (or even worldwide)? It takes some more convincing. And the article doesn't explicitly say it would be the next Corolla killer for the US market..
Time will tell.
Toyota has taken decades to build their reputation on being reliable and cheap to run/maintain.
Toyota has taken decades to build their reputation on being reliable and cheap to run/maintain.
There's literally zero percent chance this is the "Corolla Killer". Toyota has built an amazing reputation for decades, this is just a cheaper EV sedan lol.
Not bad for how cheap it is. The range for the 15k car is 420km of CLTC, which probably translates to around 190-200 miles of real world range.
Something doesn’t add up; or is that your point about real-world range?
> a 48 kWh battery providing 420 km CLTC range
The Tesla Model 3 is currently the most efficient EV, and does ~4.5m/kWh, which is ~7.2km/kWh (ballpark; precise figures vary by source).
48kWh x 7.2km/kWh would give 346km range, or ~82% of 420km.
> a 48 kWh battery providing 420 km CLTC range
The Tesla Model 3 is currently the most efficient EV, and does ~4.5m/kWh, which is ~7.2km/kWh (ballpark; precise figures vary by source).
48kWh x 7.2km/kWh would give 346km range, or ~82% of 420km.
The most efficient is the Hyundai Ioniq 6 Long Range RWD, followed by Lucid Air Pure AWD or Touring AWD, according to https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/most-efficient-electric-c.... Tesla lies about EPA range, so I wouldn't trust the Model 3 or Y at #3 and #4.
Yeah they say CLTC is the most optimistic test of the main three (EPA, WLTP, CLTC) and is about 30-35% higher than the actual range.
So what's stopping Chinese EV manufacturers from selling in the US? Are the safety regulations so much different from China?
Tariffs. Also, in the USA, there are some rather restrictive laws that require auto makers to use dealerships, so BYD would need to establish relationships with dealerships first. This would raise costs, and knowing how US dealerships are there’d be a 10k markup over MSRP.
Nitpicky but this is not true across the entire US. It varies state by state, and there are over a dozen states with no such restrictions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes
>"Forty-eight US states have laws that limit or ban manufacturers from selling vehicles directly to consumers" (from your link).
De facto US ban, when the supermajority can't do it =P
De facto US ban, when the supermajority can't do it =P
Nothing. It's just a matter of scaling up production. Chinese car exports are growing very rapidly. Sure, the US and Europe will try to protect their own industry with tariffs, but China will just respond with tariffs in kind. Ultimately, the manufactures that make the best value cars will win.
Chinese exports to Europe have grown 4x in 3 years. https://twitter.com/DivaJain2/status/1700740578873319883/
Chinese exports to Europe have grown 4x in 3 years. https://twitter.com/DivaJain2/status/1700740578873319883/
The biggest factor is import tariffs
It is a reciprocal import tariff, meaning China charges as much for American imports as we charge for Chinese imports (why BYD had to set up an EV bus in California, and why Tesla setup a factory in Shanghai).
Used to work more to China's advantage (protection from American car imports) but now works to its disadvantage (since American car makers are now protected from Chinese imports).
Used to work more to China's advantage (protection from American car imports) but now works to its disadvantage (since American car makers are now protected from Chinese imports).
Shipping low cost cars is fairly expensive. It might actually make more sense to have 1 assembly factory per continent and just ship parts.
Assembling a car is < 1 days labour, so even if you're paying high north American labour rates, it's still cheaper than a spot on a ship from China.
Assembling a car is < 1 days labour, so even if you're paying high north American labour rates, it's still cheaper than a spot on a ship from China.
BYD is going to set up in North America (like Tesla did). They can setup a factory in Mexico (where they are already selling cars?) just as easily as they can setup in Mississippi. I expect them to eventually setup in a car plant somewhere in an American southern state or Mexico. To avoid the tariff and for shipping reasons.
Japan used to make a lot of their USA-bound cars in Japan, even the cheap ones. I guess that is a difference between the 70s and today, though.
Japan used to make a lot of their USA-bound cars in Japan, even the cheap ones. I guess that is a difference between the 70s and today, though.
There are reports that they're looking to build a factory in Mexico. Likely for that very reason, as then they should be covered by the US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement.
That agreement will get an asterisk added to it shortly before the factory construction is complete...
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No mention of Taiwan in this thread.
I don't know how that factors in exactly or how much, but it is a risk.
I don't know how that factors in exactly or how much, but it is a risk.
Hopefully there's no battery fires.
don't like ev? ok. even cheaper
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O5Wr2qTLLw&pp=ygUVdG95b3RhI...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5O5Wr2qTLLw&pp=ygUVdG95b3RhI...
tawayrant(4)
I’m confused :
“””the all-electric Qin Plus has five models priced between 109,800 RMB to ($A23,300) to 139,800 RMB ($A29,700).”””
$23300!=$15000
Edit: ah I see it’s got a three way currency conversion just to make it all clearer!
“””the all-electric Qin Plus has five models priced between 109,800 RMB to ($A23,300) to 139,800 RMB ($A29,700).”””
$23300!=$15000
Edit: ah I see it’s got a three way currency conversion just to make it all clearer!
A is AUD, this might be an Australian mag. 23k AUD is actually 15k USD. Weird that they quote USD first.
aussie outlet, quoting an american source who speaks in USD, thats where the 15k is coming from. then gets converted to AUD for local readers
Australian dollars.
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Once they reach these milestones then maybe they can call themselves a Corolla killer.