Intelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit(spacenews.com)
spacenews.com
Intelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit
https://spacenews.com/intelsat-33e-loses-power-in-geostationary-orbit/
146 comments
It is particularly bad for a satellite in geostationary orbit to break up or fail. Satellites are packed as tightly as possible into that orbit due to its economic importance (it's very useful for a satellite, particularly communications satellites, to always be over the same part of the Earth), so there is a higher than normal likelihood that this could be seriously disruptive.
- "Satellites are packed as tightly as possible into that orbit due to its economic importance"
Note that that's in the sense of angular separation, as viewed from the ground. They're physically hundreds of kilometers apart.
edit: (Geostationary orbits are ~42,000 km from the Earth center-of-mass; each degree of angle is an arc of ~700 km).
Note that that's in the sense of angular separation, as viewed from the ground. They're physically hundreds of kilometers apart.
edit: (Geostationary orbits are ~42,000 km from the Earth center-of-mass; each degree of angle is an arc of ~700 km).
> They're physically hundreds of kilometers apart.
That’s pretty close when your neighbor just exploded and there’s almost exactly zero air resistance to prevent debris from reaching you.
That’s pretty close when your neighbor just exploded and there’s almost exactly zero air resistance to prevent debris from reaching you.
Yes there's no air resistance, but also most of the fragments aren't going your way.
If you have a 25 m^2 cross section in the direction of the explosion, at that distance you have a roughly 1 in 246 billion chance of any given bit of debris hitting you.
If you have a 25 m^2 cross section in the direction of the explosion, at that distance you have a roughly 1 in 246 billion chance of any given bit of debris hitting you.
It might not place neighbors at appreciable risk but wouldn't debris still prevent replacing the failed satellite with another one at the same precious original address?
Wouldn't debris at the same address (after some time) therefore have zero relative motion?
No, because the debris = tiny pieces of aluminum, will be pushed around by solar radiation.
Also, there’re tiny meteorites, and other pieces of debris colliding with it, which adds energy to the system, if you like.
TLEs are not maintained for small debris, so you can’t really predict conclusively. But my hunch is that eventually, the orbit will become a bit more parabolic, precession of which could put it into a trajectory of a S/C and cause a collision.
Things in geo orbit aren't perfectly stable, since the Earth's gravitational field is not perfectly uniform. Without active station keeping things tend to gather at two particular longitudes over the equator. So eventually that debris will probably end up at those points.
What is the chance of getting hit by further broken pieces of that satellite and other satellites?
When calculating risk, you have to take into account how many are there and what is the chance that any will be hit. Then you have to calculate what's the chance this will happen again, etc - and only then you can calculate the risk to your own satellite.
It's true that the chance of getting hit by one broken satellite is small. But that assumes there are exactly 2 things on the orbit.
When calculating risk, you have to take into account how many are there and what is the chance that any will be hit. Then you have to calculate what's the chance this will happen again, etc - and only then you can calculate the risk to your own satellite.
It's true that the chance of getting hit by one broken satellite is small. But that assumes there are exactly 2 things on the orbit.
Aka Kessler syndrome [0] or neutron flux / cross-section (and associated equations, if you want to model it that way) [1].
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_flux
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_flux
That's if the risk comes out at 100%, but there's some space below that.
> If you have a 25 m^2 cross section in the direction of the explosion, at that distance you have a roughly 1 in 246 billion chance of any given bit of debris hitting you.
Source?
Source?
$ units
You have: 25m2 / 2tau(700km)^2
You want: /billion
* 0.0040600751
/ 246.30086randmeerkat(1)
Getting hit by debris that flies away directly from an explosion would very bad luck indeed. Just think about how well you would have to aim to hit someone 10km away.
But some debris (in particular slower pieces) will probably oscillate around the geostationary orbit giving it countless chances of hitting other satellites.
Has someone modelled this for example in Kerbal space program?
But some debris (in particular slower pieces) will probably oscillate around the geostationary orbit giving it countless chances of hitting other satellites.
Has someone modelled this for example in Kerbal space program?
> But some debris (in particular slower pieces) will probably oscillate around the geostationary orbit giving it countless chances of hitting other satellites.
Almost all of the debris will have orbits which intersect their orbit of origin.
Almost all of the debris will have orbits which intersect their orbit of origin.
well while that is true only debris that has the right speed will stay there. the issue is that debris will probably have gotten some impulse that turns it orbit elliptical. that means it will slowly ratchet along geo touching it every day or so at a different place. so you get a changes every day for every piece to hit something. And even a big piece that might just have a delta of 30km/h might damage your panels on your working Sats.
Yes, exactly.
It almost certainly won’t hit you directly, but that stuff is in orbit with you now, and it is uncontrolled.
It almost certainly won’t hit you directly, but that stuff is in orbit with you now, and it is uncontrolled.
That doesn't seem very close in terms of the area traced out by each object in relation to the area of the sphere? (And less if you consider volume since they won't be at exactly the same altitude.)
It can reach you, sure. But the chances of hitting are miniscule. If you could throw a basketball a few hundred kilometres you're still likely to miss the net.
moralestapia(1)
Indeed, Intelsat 33e has a couple nearby neighbors in similar orbits and inclinations.
ID Name Orbit Incl.
98050A ASTRA 2A 57.2 4.93
09017A WGS F2 (USA 204) 57.5 0.01
14023B KAZSAT-3 58.5 0.02
12008A BEIDOU-2 G5 58.7 2.10
16053B INTELSAT 33E (IS-33E) 60.0 0.04 <-- 20+ debris components
19014A WGS 10 (USA 291) 60.3 0.01
04007A ABS-4 (MOBISAT-1) 61.0 3.86
10008A EWS-G2 (GOES 15) 61.5 0.04
19049B INTELSAT 39 (IS-39) 62.0 0.02
Looks like WGS-10 is the closest.
From Wikipedia, it looks like it's a USSF satellite launched in 2019 with a service life of 14 years. It provides wideband communications to DoD customers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-291
From Wikipedia, it looks like it's a USSF satellite launched in 2019 with a service life of 14 years. It provides wideband communications to DoD customers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA-291
It's 0.3 degrees ahead in orbit. Which means the debris needs to speed up to collide. It's possible if the break-up was explosive, but most, if not all of the debris is more likely to stay at the same velocity or slow down.
Speeding up does not work, that'll just put it in a higher orbit. My understanding of these issues is that introduced eccentricity gets you: if it takes the "inside corner" (is that the English word for binnenbocht/innenkurve?) around the earth, it could then then meet you on the other side where the orbits intersect. If it sped up (flying out of the corner, in this race analogy) and thereby took a longer way around, it'd rather be a danger to those immediately behind (with each orbit, progressively further back along the circular orbital path)
Disclaimer: this comes from playing a self-made orbital mechanics game, I have no training whatsoever let alone professional experience with this
Disclaimer: this comes from playing a self-made orbital mechanics game, I have no training whatsoever let alone professional experience with this
> Speeding up does not work, that'll just put it in a higher orbit
Speeding up doesn't raise the orbit; it makes it (more) elliptical while still intersecting with the old orbit (shared with neighbouring satellites)- you need at least 2 maneuvers to raise an orbit. You're also assuming a perfectly pro-grade acceleration. In an explosion, different pieces go in different directions, I suspect there is a vector that results in faster speed in the same orbit, but I'm no rocket scientist.
Speeding up doesn't raise the orbit; it makes it (more) elliptical while still intersecting with the old orbit (shared with neighbouring satellites)- you need at least 2 maneuvers to raise an orbit. You're also assuming a perfectly pro-grade acceleration. In an explosion, different pieces go in different directions, I suspect there is a vector that results in faster speed in the same orbit, but I'm no rocket scientist.
Correcting an inaccuracy in the last sentence I introduced in an edit: Kepler's laws means you cant have different velocities in the same orbit - bit its possible for an explosion to cause a projectile to intercept a satellite that was ahead of it in a new orbit.
My KSP experience supports your view :)
Parts that were sped up have their opposite orbital side raised, parts that got slowed will have their opposite orbital side lowered.
Parts that were sped up have their opposite orbital side raised, parts that got slowed will have their opposite orbital side lowered.
> this comes from playing a self-made orbital mechanics game
My interest is piqued!
My interest is piqued!
Thanks, but don't expect too much! (In particular on mobile where you can't zoom by scroll wheel or use arrow keys to fly.) I mentioned it in an earlier comment, probably easiest to refer back to that for some context/hints: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35763506
Thanks! I'll check this out later today.
Any velocity changes will only happen once so will result in an eccentric orbit where only one side of the orbit is raised or lowered -- the other side will still be in SSO.
Most of the debris will have eccentric orbits with varied periods which intersect geostationary orbits. Every satellite in a geostationary orbit is at risk, not just the ones near it.
So does that mean the other satellites "behind" it are in more danger?
The one behind it is 1000km away vs 200km away for the one in front.
[deleted]
Not to mention debris can be in GEO for a long, long time. People worry about LEO constellations causing Kessler syndrome, but the reality is that LEO debris deorbits in the order of months/years. GEO is much, much longer.
> Not to mention debris can be in GEO for a long, long time.
On human timescales, it's basically forever. Hopefully we'll develop the tech to clean up debris in space, but it's extra challenging to do it in geostationary orbit since it's so far away from Earth, both in terms of actual distance, and delta-V.
> People worry about LEO constellations causing Kessler syndrome, but the reality is that LEO debris deorbits in the order of months/years.
It's a little more complicated than that. The time to spontaneously deorbit is based on orbital height. Starlink can deorbit on its own in 5-10 years because it's orbiting so low. But any OneWeb satellites that malfunction[1] will take 1000+ years to deorbit because they're up at 1000+ km.
---
1. Like this one
https://spacenews.com/oneweb-mulls-debris-removal-service-fo...
On human timescales, it's basically forever. Hopefully we'll develop the tech to clean up debris in space, but it's extra challenging to do it in geostationary orbit since it's so far away from Earth, both in terms of actual distance, and delta-V.
> People worry about LEO constellations causing Kessler syndrome, but the reality is that LEO debris deorbits in the order of months/years.
It's a little more complicated than that. The time to spontaneously deorbit is based on orbital height. Starlink can deorbit on its own in 5-10 years because it's orbiting so low. But any OneWeb satellites that malfunction[1] will take 1000+ years to deorbit because they're up at 1000+ km.
---
1. Like this one
https://spacenews.com/oneweb-mulls-debris-removal-service-fo...
Yep! That's a great point! I forgot that LEO encompasses quite a bit of difference as well. Starlink has been in the news lately, so that's mostly where my mind was. I believe the newly announced Starlink shells are even lower, so that's good news from a failure standpoint.
> Hopefully we'll develop the tech to clean up debris in space
Rendezvousing is pretty established tech so long as you know a precise and stable orbit of your target, afaik? Which, for geo, we would I think. So taking up some grabbing mechanism probably does it, then use ion engines, burning retrograde (avoiding the need for heavy fuel) until you get it to a low LEO orbit, let loose, and let the problem solve itself within a few ~weeks. Then move on to the next piece, so you don't need a launch to orbit for every individual piece of debris. You also don't have to circularise your orbit to just rendezvous and grab it. And you probably also don't have to go out of plane even if the target object is, if I'm visualising this correctly, because there's always a node where the planes intersect and you can just start the path up to geo at the right point in your LEO orbit
Grossly simplified, devil in the details, but this seems very possible with today's technology and potentially less expensive in terms of delta V than it may seem at first glance
Rendezvousing is pretty established tech so long as you know a precise and stable orbit of your target, afaik? Which, for geo, we would I think. So taking up some grabbing mechanism probably does it, then use ion engines, burning retrograde (avoiding the need for heavy fuel) until you get it to a low LEO orbit, let loose, and let the problem solve itself within a few ~weeks. Then move on to the next piece, so you don't need a launch to orbit for every individual piece of debris. You also don't have to circularise your orbit to just rendezvous and grab it. And you probably also don't have to go out of plane even if the target object is, if I'm visualising this correctly, because there's always a node where the planes intersect and you can just start the path up to geo at the right point in your LEO orbit
Grossly simplified, devil in the details, but this seems very possible with today's technology and potentially less expensive in terms of delta V than it may seem at first glance
no
if it remains in GEO orbit (same speed vector), it will remain in same "place" relative to other satellites, and won't ever hit them
if it changes speed vector, it's no longer in GEO orbit
if it remains in GEO orbit (same speed vector), it will remain in same "place" relative to other satellites, and won't ever hit them
if it changes speed vector, it's no longer in GEO orbit
if it changes speed vector, it'll be in an eccentric orbit with one of either perigee or apogee at GEO.
The most important contributor to a Kessler-like scenario is extremely high relative speed of items traveling on crossing orbits. It’s not very relevant to the situation in a single geostationary orbit shared by all the objects.
Note that for every 1 km at the earths surface, you get 6.61 km at geostationary orbit. So there's quite a bit of room (264,924 km circumference vs 40,075km at ground level).
No, you cannot shift orbit with a single burn maneuver so whatever explosion unless it exploded the other way later cannot shift orbit if the pieces accelerated relative to earth they’re going into a higher orbit if they decelerated they go into a lower orbit
Transverse thrust would cause a procession which should be very unlikely to hit another Geo stationary satellite in the future
Without having details of the explosion, I imagine some parts will slow down and some will speed up. They'll all be clustered together around the original orbit, and will take many years to drift any considerable distance unless it was a very high velocity explosion.
I remember this taking a second to click in high school physics class. The initial thought is that after an explosion all of the pieces fly away from a stationary point. The satellite is not stationary, so the pieces "flying away" only have their speed subtracted from the speed of the satellite.
The fact that orbital speeds are faster than explosions took a bit to sink in.
The fact that orbital speeds are faster than explosions took a bit to sink in.
That’s tangential to you not being able to fly in a straight line from one Geo stationary orbit to another
How is it tangential? It's directly related. The satellite is moving in a straight line at a specific speed. The explosion does not negate that speed, rather it just applies a momentary bit of acceleration/deceleration along a new vector. So unless an explosion can provide more acceleration that can null out the original object's speed, the pieces will remain in orbit. That's just how fast orbital speeds are, and it took a bit for that to click
But we’re worried about the pieces hitting another satellite in goe stationary orbit further along the orbit. A single burn can’t do that in a direct way because there is no direct path between two satellites at the same orbital distance (speed)
[deleted]
It isn't great but the diameter of geostationary orbit is 84,328 kilometers so there is a lot of room.
Another blunder for Boeing right up next to naming things „Epic Next Generation“…
What’s with the missing insurance? Didn’t they get any insurance because of the previous debacle with a Intelsat where they couldn’t decide if it was a internal or external source? Who would pay now if debris causes damage?
Interesting to see the Space Force now mentioned and following the Wikipedia list[1] the standard procedure seem to be to create a new agency every couple of decades which takes over the previous one but with a new name. What are the reasons for this?
Edit: [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_forces,_units,...
What’s with the missing insurance? Didn’t they get any insurance because of the previous debacle with a Intelsat where they couldn’t decide if it was a internal or external source? Who would pay now if debris causes damage?
Interesting to see the Space Force now mentioned and following the Wikipedia list[1] the standard procedure seem to be to create a new agency every couple of decades which takes over the previous one but with a new name. What are the reasons for this?
Edit: [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_forces,_units,...
> Interesting to see the Space Force now mentioned and following the Wikipedia list[1] the standard procedure seem to be to create a new agency every couple of decades which takes over the previous one but with a new name. What are the reasons for this?
Is it a "standard operating procedure" if there are only two examples of it happening (and independent space forces in general)?
In any case, even for those that still aren't fully independent, it seems to be slowly separating air and space forces as space became a bigger player in the global arms race.
Is it a "standard operating procedure" if there are only two examples of it happening (and independent space forces in general)?
In any case, even for those that still aren't fully independent, it seems to be slowly separating air and space forces as space became a bigger player in the global arms race.
You're largely correct. Space has become a more important domain which is growing all of the time. There had been a complaint within the USAF hierarchy and in the government as a whole that the USAF had neglected the space mission. It's leadership was overwhelmingly representatives by those from it's fighter wings. Space was a command within the USAF, but was stifled in both budget and representation. The stars finally aligned for it to be broken off. While it still resides within the Department of the Air Force (similar to how the Marines are within the Department of the Navy), it's CO reports directly to the President and they are budgeted separately through Congress.
Boeing R&D and manufacturing is completely separated which is probably a significant source of problems for them. Often manufacturing is moved to locations that gives tax breaks and other benefits.
Meanwhile Airbus R&D engineers in Toulouse and Hamburg are often less than a 5 minute walk from where their designs are being manufactured.
Meanwhile Airbus R&D engineers in Toulouse and Hamburg are often less than a 5 minute walk from where their designs are being manufactured.
What do you mean CAD isn't exactly the same as real life?
Wait you mean the map is not the territory?
For some context:
The same Boeing satellite bus already experienced a major issue some years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19658800
The same Boeing satellite bus already experienced a major issue some years ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19658800
I was not familiar with the term satellite bus. I kind of guessed what it is but not really. Here's the link to the Wikipedia page. There might be a link to the Boeing bus in there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_bus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_bus
I know the Boeing connection is the most "sexy" cause, so people are probably going to run with it anyway, but I also have to wonder about a space debris collision. GEO is already quite polluted, and the "graveyard orbits" commonly used have been shown to be inadequate.[1]
Can anyone tell whether (at 60 degrees East and at 4:30 UTC October 19) the satellite was passing through the intersection with the main plane of lunar perturbed debris? This would hint at a possible debris strike.
Sadly I can't seem to find a 3D satellite visualization that lets you go back in time. :-(
[1] https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2008/03/Spacecraft...
Can anyone tell whether (at 60 degrees East and at 4:30 UTC October 19) the satellite was passing through the intersection with the main plane of lunar perturbed debris? This would hint at a possible debris strike.
Sadly I can't seem to find a 3D satellite visualization that lets you go back in time. :-(
[1] https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2008/03/Spacecraft...
Maybe. But it's probably just Boeing :) This was a fairly young satellite, launched in 2016, and beset with propulsion problems from the start. It was also the second of a new series, and the first one has already failed as well.
The more interesting part for me is that a satellite just exploded, that it's made by Boeing is just the cherry on top.
Cherry on top that propulsion issues are now problematic for Boeing satellites AND capsules. I wonder if there's a crossover in personnel in either engineering or management.
The complete collapse of Boeing needs to be studied.
They should teach it in every MBA program in the country /s.
You joke, but it absolutely should. Boeing is a great example of "when all you have is a hammer, everything is a nail". When MBAs are left in charge with no guardrails, this is what can happen. That's a great thing to teach to new MBAs. Every field has this potential pitfall. When you hyperfocus, bad things can happen. Know when to say when.
> Know when to say when.
People warned about exactly what happened already back in the time when the merger happened that introduced beancounter culture to Boeing.
The problem was, as always, no one listens to the warners and the whiners when there is money to be made.
People warned about exactly what happened already back in the time when the merger happened that introduced beancounter culture to Boeing.
The problem was, as always, no one listens to the warners and the whiners when there is money to be made.
The only counter to the money argument is tough regulation that results in jail time. If the whiners can point to an example of white collar criminal enforcement their complaints suddenly have teeth.
> The only counter to the money argument is tough regulation that results in jail time
Okay, so it's functionally impossible with the current and likely next incoming US administration.
Okay, so it's functionally impossible with the current and likely next incoming US administration.
>> When you hyperfocus, bad things can happen.
Highly optimized systems are fragile. They work well so long as everything stays the same. Optimizing for cost will compromise other things. Quality is not a varnish to be applied after you make something, it's designed into the product and production process from the beginning - by people who understand such things.
Highly optimized systems are fragile. They work well so long as everything stays the same. Optimizing for cost will compromise other things. Quality is not a varnish to be applied after you make something, it's designed into the product and production process from the beginning - by people who understand such things.
If you get your MBA at Emory University, you learn about the New Coke fiasco. In a building named after Roberto C. Goizueta. The Coke executive responsible for New Coke. I suspect the irony is often lost on the latest cadre of MBA grads.
But is the moral of the story that the guys that made the bad decisions got their bonuses and moved on, and aren’t affected by the aftermath? That’s what I fear the MBA’s will learn - don’t stick around.
It's not just MBAs that don't stick around. Even in the tech world, it's common for people to bounce around. Usually what ever the vesting period is.
Yeah I didn't really know how to articulate nuance of the sarcasm in my comment, I fully agree it should.
But it's such a massive clusterfuck for Boeing that it seems like MBA programs should be reformed from the ground up.
But it's such a massive clusterfuck for Boeing that it seems like MBA programs should be reformed from the ground up.
>They should teach it in every MBA program in the country /s.
As if it wasn't the result of what has been taught for decades, now coming of age more bigly than ever ;)
>MBA programs should be reformed from the ground up.
Who would do the reforming though?
Academic leaders? That could be like having the inmates running the asylum :)
From the ground up?
If you're not careful they could end up building an insane new institution at a massive scale in an image grandiose enough that it could crush GE or something ;)
As if it wasn't the result of what has been taught for decades, now coming of age more bigly than ever ;)
>MBA programs should be reformed from the ground up.
Who would do the reforming though?
Academic leaders? That could be like having the inmates running the asylum :)
From the ground up?
If you're not careful they could end up building an insane new institution at a massive scale in an image grandiose enough that it could crush GE or something ;)
Yeah this is exactly why I added the /s
I don't know the answer but hopefully "the powers that be" take a really close look at this situation.
Every company in the US should do some serious introspection.
I don't know the answer but hopefully "the powers that be" take a really close look at this situation.
Every company in the US should do some serious introspection.
If you gave a company over to only engineers, it would also fail, just in a different way. Same with only HR, or any other field. MBAs are not the problem. Shitty MBAs and shitty leadership are the problem. MBAs aren't there to screw people over; they're there to sustainably run a company. Sure, the bad ones screw people over in the name of nickel-and-diming. But still.
And no, I'm not an MBA . . .
And no, I'm not an MBA . . .
No doubt about it, the widespread problem is having non-leaders in leadership positions.
The underlying defect is a system which allows absolutely poor performers to advance based on an overwhelming focus on greed and ambition for power.
When it has become more popularly acceptable to allow it to become so.
The most unsuitable candidates for leading people are what the mainstream finds acceptable or even desirable once the culture shift swings this far.
With either a reduced number of key positions that can afford to be occupied by a dud (or worse), or an increased number of limited-ability competitors prevailing on the basis of their dedication to leveraging greed and even treachery, the kind of leader that's really needed is less likely to advance from entry-level at all.
What would really help would be a culture that inhibits those unsuitable individuals from arising toward those limited number of key positions to begin with.
The underlying defect is a system which allows absolutely poor performers to advance based on an overwhelming focus on greed and ambition for power.
When it has become more popularly acceptable to allow it to become so.
The most unsuitable candidates for leading people are what the mainstream finds acceptable or even desirable once the culture shift swings this far.
With either a reduced number of key positions that can afford to be occupied by a dud (or worse), or an increased number of limited-ability competitors prevailing on the basis of their dedication to leveraging greed and even treachery, the kind of leader that's really needed is less likely to advance from entry-level at all.
What would really help would be a culture that inhibits those unsuitable individuals from arising toward those limited number of key positions to begin with.
> If you gave a company over to only engineers, it would also fail, just in a different way
Do you have an idea of what would be the failure mode(s)?
Do you have an idea of what would be the failure mode(s)?
If engineers run the restaurant the food is excellent but the menu is confusing and there are no customers because nobody knows the restaurant exists.
If sales/marketing runs the restaurant it's full but there is no food. The menu is beautiful and shows all kinds of dishes nobody knows how to make.
If MBAs run the restaurant it's full of people paid to be there long enough to be counted and reported up to the investors and the food is purchased from the McDonalds next door and relabeled and resold at 3X the price. Nobody will ever come back but it doesn't matter. The metrics from this exercise are used to raise money to open three more restaurants across the street from convenient sources of cheap fast food. This novel model of running restaurants is written up in Harvard Business Review as an excellent example of an arbitrage business model.
If artists run the restaurant they make and eat the food themselves and then leave.
If sales/marketing runs the restaurant it's full but there is no food. The menu is beautiful and shows all kinds of dishes nobody knows how to make.
If MBAs run the restaurant it's full of people paid to be there long enough to be counted and reported up to the investors and the food is purchased from the McDonalds next door and relabeled and resold at 3X the price. Nobody will ever come back but it doesn't matter. The metrics from this exercise are used to raise money to open three more restaurants across the street from convenient sources of cheap fast food. This novel model of running restaurants is written up in Harvard Business Review as an excellent example of an arbitrage business model.
If artists run the restaurant they make and eat the food themselves and then leave.
Engineer would first try to build a cooking machine.
This is a nice summation. If LLMs ever produce this kind of output, I'll buy into the tech is good.
I think this makes a pretty good stereotype based on reality.
This is something of a dichotomy between engineering-based structures and sales-centric, with MBA's and designers as collateral players.
Everybody needs sales of some kind, but most businesses do not actually need "engineering", so there are not usually any engineers expected to in the chain-of-command. Even in an engineering company itself there may be only token members in the most critical decision-making positions.
A sales hierarchy sells from a select source of technology.
An engineering hierarchy selects a technology to be a source of.
They each have huge pallettes to choose from, but they are different.
I think many lifelong business operators are aware that it really takes far more years to truly learn their business than it would to enroll as a freshman and end up earning an MBA.
And that's not even engineering companies.
These are the kind of organizations that may have no worthwhile use for even the most talented decision-maker of any kind regardless of degree, until after their employment has been lengthy enough to have achieved the working acumen that is really necessary. In many cases taking far more years on active duty than in academic preparation, but it's worth it.
But even if you can do without MBA's forever, you still have to have Production, Sales, accountants, HR, Admin, security, IT, etc. You can only go so far with "engineers" only.
However, in one way to approach an ideal "engineering company" the entire chain-of-command consists of true technical leaders-by-consensus top-to-bottom in a Maslow-like way where by nature less consensus is needed toward the top where the individual vision finally becomes most powerful.
All the other departments report to this engineering backbone in one way or another so the buck always stops with somebody who can handle the engineering calculus and who always puts that kind of thing foremost from day one, without undue reliance on business calculus, which are two different pursuits to an extent.
Then if a gifted MBA or two have something to offer, they can do so while reporting to the appropriate engineers, never the other way around.
You need to get back to a more technically talented chain-of-command where they instinctively can make way more money through technology than any bean-counters would ever be able to save even if they laid everyone off.
No doubt you can accomplish a lot by having a completely non-technical chain-of-command, with engineering off to the side like other essentials such as accounting or HR. People do it all the time. But you can't really accomplish quite the same things after all.
Still it sounds like any customers who stumbled in to the "Engineering Restaurant" end up with the best as far as the food itself, although there is some "Artisan Dining" where the experience can be unforgettable too.
Sometimes you don't get much on your plate though, I wondered if they were in the back eating most of it themselves ;)
This is something of a dichotomy between engineering-based structures and sales-centric, with MBA's and designers as collateral players.
Everybody needs sales of some kind, but most businesses do not actually need "engineering", so there are not usually any engineers expected to in the chain-of-command. Even in an engineering company itself there may be only token members in the most critical decision-making positions.
A sales hierarchy sells from a select source of technology.
An engineering hierarchy selects a technology to be a source of.
They each have huge pallettes to choose from, but they are different.
I think many lifelong business operators are aware that it really takes far more years to truly learn their business than it would to enroll as a freshman and end up earning an MBA.
And that's not even engineering companies.
These are the kind of organizations that may have no worthwhile use for even the most talented decision-maker of any kind regardless of degree, until after their employment has been lengthy enough to have achieved the working acumen that is really necessary. In many cases taking far more years on active duty than in academic preparation, but it's worth it.
But even if you can do without MBA's forever, you still have to have Production, Sales, accountants, HR, Admin, security, IT, etc. You can only go so far with "engineers" only.
However, in one way to approach an ideal "engineering company" the entire chain-of-command consists of true technical leaders-by-consensus top-to-bottom in a Maslow-like way where by nature less consensus is needed toward the top where the individual vision finally becomes most powerful.
All the other departments report to this engineering backbone in one way or another so the buck always stops with somebody who can handle the engineering calculus and who always puts that kind of thing foremost from day one, without undue reliance on business calculus, which are two different pursuits to an extent.
Then if a gifted MBA or two have something to offer, they can do so while reporting to the appropriate engineers, never the other way around.
You need to get back to a more technically talented chain-of-command where they instinctively can make way more money through technology than any bean-counters would ever be able to save even if they laid everyone off.
No doubt you can accomplish a lot by having a completely non-technical chain-of-command, with engineering off to the side like other essentials such as accounting or HR. People do it all the time. But you can't really accomplish quite the same things after all.
Still it sounds like any customers who stumbled in to the "Engineering Restaurant" end up with the best as far as the food itself, although there is some "Artisan Dining" where the experience can be unforgettable too.
Sometimes you don't get much on your plate though, I wondered if they were in the back eating most of it themselves ;)
Intel under Andy Grove, Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes, Boeing under Muilenburg, and Nokia under Kallasvuo had various business issues under an engineer CEO.
From TFA, this bird is the 2nd in this "next generation" of satellites. The first one also failed because either "a meteoroid impact or a wiring flaw that led to an electrostatic discharge following heightened solar weather activity."
That's a pretty specific flaw to then just write it off to a meteor.
So they are 0 for 2. Does not instill confidence in this "next generation" at all.
That's a pretty specific flaw to then just write it off to a meteor.
So they are 0 for 2. Does not instill confidence in this "next generation" at all.
“Either a strike from a meteor, OR this highly specific wiring problem. Could be either! ” is actually pretty funny
The linked article shows a picture of the debris. Just amazing that we can do this for tiny objects that 35,000 km away from us, but apparently it's something that can even be done by amateurs: it's 'just' a matter of keeping the exposure time long enough.
Here's an article about that: https://skyandtelescope.org/observing/how-to-see-and-photogr...
There are commercial services that keep visual track of geostationary satellites. A couple of years ago, IIRC, a Russian satellite broke down and there were pictures of the disintegration.
Here's an article about that: https://skyandtelescope.org/observing/how-to-see-and-photogr...
There are commercial services that keep visual track of geostationary satellites. A couple of years ago, IIRC, a Russian satellite broke down and there were pictures of the disintegration.
How does a satellite break up in orbit? Was it struck by something?
It's more likely that something energetic happened with an onboard system (propulsion or batteries). Could just be leaky valves causing propellant and oxidizer to meet somewhere they shouldn't..
It's had a few propulsion system issues:
> On 9 September 2016, Intelsat announced that due to a malfunction in the LEROS-1c primary thruster, it would require more time for orbit rising ...
> In August 2017, another propulsion issue appeared, leading to larger-than-expected propellant usage to control the satellite attitude during the north/south station keeping maneuvers. This issue reduced the orbital life-time by about 3.5 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelsat_33e
It's had a few propulsion system issues:
> On 9 September 2016, Intelsat announced that due to a malfunction in the LEROS-1c primary thruster, it would require more time for orbit rising ...
> In August 2017, another propulsion issue appeared, leading to larger-than-expected propellant usage to control the satellite attitude during the north/south station keeping maneuvers. This issue reduced the orbital life-time by about 3.5 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelsat_33e
For a satellite in a stable GEO orbit, I think there are basically two possibilities:
1. Collision with other debris
2. Internal fault causing uncontrolled release of stored energy (i.e., explosion)
Intelsat-29e used the same satellite bus and experienced #2, in the form of some sort of uncontrolled propellant release.
1. Collision with other debris
2. Internal fault causing uncontrolled release of stored energy (i.e., explosion)
Intelsat-29e used the same satellite bus and experienced #2, in the form of some sort of uncontrolled propellant release.
The satellite here was using the same Boeing bus: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/04/new-video-of-intelsa...
So something similar might have happened here.
So something similar might have happened here.
Waiting for a leak of emails where engineers expressed concerns on the design/elements and management approved anyways.
Wow, these companies really are replicating NASA management
It's anyways possible that it was struck by a meteorite or a piece of space debris that's too small to be tracked.
But these satellites also carry fuel for orbit keeping, evasion manoeuvres and going to a graveyard orbit at its end of life. Given that this satellite had two separate propulsion issues and Intelsat-29e suffered from electrostatic discharge it's not difficult to imagine the satellite igniting its fuel in an uncontrolled manner
But these satellites also carry fuel for orbit keeping, evasion manoeuvres and going to a graveyard orbit at its end of life. Given that this satellite had two separate propulsion issues and Intelsat-29e suffered from electrostatic discharge it's not difficult to imagine the satellite igniting its fuel in an uncontrolled manner
We are at the beginning of the Orionid meteor shower so earth is now in the debris stream that creates that shower and has been for a couple days.
This could be a Boeing problem but it also could be due to an impact with a micrometeorite or other natural-origin space debris.
Enjoy the meteor shower if you have a chance.
This could be a Boeing problem but it also could be due to an impact with a micrometeorite or other natural-origin space debris.
Enjoy the meteor shower if you have a chance.
The most likely options are that it was struck by debris or that there was an explosion onboard. Those two are not mutually exclusive, either.
Could be struck by a micrometeorite, or if they were doing a station keeping maneuver something could have gone wrong with a thruster. (Apparently the first in it's class Intelsat-29e was lost due to a fuel leak, so maybe there is something systemically wrong in the spacecraft bus.)
I'm curious if a thruster malfunction could also cause it to spin to the point of breaking up.
rapid unscheduled disassembly.
There's a lot of stored energy in satellites: fuel, gas pressurizers, batteries. End-of-life geosynchronous satellites sometimes drain all of these, deliberately, to limit their hazard as space junk.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passivation_(spacecraft)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passivation_(spacecraft)
An accidental strike is unlikely. Either a massive malfunction, or maybe ASAT [1]. ASAT is always going to be a possibility from now on simply because the target might prefer to deny getting hit.
[1] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/news/us-warns-new-ru...
[1] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-03/news/us-warns-new-ru...
I think we'd know if the Russians detonated a nuke in orbit.
That's not the only kind of weapon.
So you're saying an untraceable ASAT attack is more likely than a micrometeor impact?
Lots of real estate between "might prefer to deny it" and "untraceable." On HN at least, you should assume the best possible interpretation instead of putting words into mouths.
And yes, malfunction is the most likely cause, distantly followed by attack. Micrometeoroid isn't very likely IMO, considering Intelsat-29e failed similarly. Unless maybe if they painted a red target on it and the meteor god has a sense of humor.
And yes, malfunction is the most likely cause, distantly followed by attack. Micrometeoroid isn't very likely IMO, considering Intelsat-29e failed similarly. Unless maybe if they painted a red target on it and the meteor god has a sense of humor.
> “believe it is unlikely that the satellite will be recoverable.”
Why do these announcements have to be so hedgy? The satellite is in twenty pieces, I'd think that with the probability of spontaneous reconstruction being so low, we're fairly safe to say "will not be recoverable".
Why do these announcements have to be so hedgy? The satellite is in twenty pieces, I'd think that with the probability of spontaneous reconstruction being so low, we're fairly safe to say "will not be recoverable".
Is it only in 20 pieces, or did 20 pieces break off? Sudden unscheduled disassembly can happen differently. The probability is that there are 20 pieces they are able to track and many many more pieces that are smaller
Because it was posted on the internet, where new and exciting forms of pedantry are invented every day.
I was wondering if a geostationary satellite has ever broken up before. I found a NASA list of satellites that fragmented:
History of On-orbit Satellite Fragmentations, 16th Edition
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20220019160/downloads/HO...
Searching that PDF for "geostationary" I found:
"The Russian government’s disclosure of the Ekran 2 battery explosion on 25 June 1978 is the first known fragmentation in geostationary orbit."
There are two other geostationary fragmentations in the list, Ekran 4 and Ekran 9. These two events are hypothesized to have also been due to battery explosions.
History of On-orbit Satellite Fragmentations, 16th Edition
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20220019160/downloads/HO...
Searching that PDF for "geostationary" I found:
"The Russian government’s disclosure of the Ekran 2 battery explosion on 25 June 1978 is the first known fragmentation in geostationary orbit."
There are two other geostationary fragmentations in the list, Ekran 4 and Ekran 9. These two events are hypothesized to have also been due to battery explosions.
[deleted]
AMC-9 and Telkom-1 both broke apart fairly recently too.
With falling cost of launch, there seems an opportunity to have a program to clean up orbital debris, funded by insurance premiums for orbits that don't self clean (like GEO).
At least of the bigger debris.
At least of the bigger debris.
Boeing should be forced to clean up the mess they made on their dime, or it's prison for the execs.
We are far too light on execs causing irreparable harm to humanity.
We are far too light on execs causing irreparable harm to humanity.
Maybe a bit confused - paying for damages is a civil/contract matter. Jail is for crimes committed by a person.
The parent comment explained some reasonable contractual mechanisms for civil remedy - insurance etc.
The parent comment explained some reasonable contractual mechanisms for civil remedy - insurance etc.
Things can be both - insurance fraud jumps to mind, for example. You have to make the insurance company whole (they sue you in civil court) and you have to stand trial for your alleged crime (you're arraigned in criminal court).
> ... satellite maker Boeing to address an anomaly that emerged earlier that day, but “believe it is unlikely that the satellite will be recoverable.”
Yeah, the satellite disintegrates and they call it an "anomaly" and "unlikely that the satellite will be recoverable". This response is even funnier than "the front fell off" sketch.
I feel like it's time to class Boeing as not only inept but a dangerously inept organisation.
Yeah, the satellite disintegrates and they call it an "anomaly" and "unlikely that the satellite will be recoverable". This response is even funnier than "the front fell off" sketch.
I feel like it's time to class Boeing as not only inept but a dangerously inept organisation.
Privatize the profit, socialize the cleanup costs.
Start making these companies pay into an insurance superfund.
Who is going to pay the day SpaceX has a "whoops" ?
Start making these companies pay into an insurance superfund.
Who is going to pay the day SpaceX has a "whoops" ?
> Who is going to pay the day SpaceX has a "whoops" ?
Ironically, SpaceX is probably one of the least bad companies in that regard.
1. They launch satellites to a very low LEO orbit. The satellites use their onboard thrusters to get to their final orbits. This means that satellites that malfunction early in their life (the first lip of the bathtub[1]) deorbit in a matter of months. And they're so low, they don't affect anyone else.
2. And even Starlink satellites that do fail are at such a low orbital height that they'll spontaneously deorbit in 5-10 years.
---
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bathtub_curve
Ironically, SpaceX is probably one of the least bad companies in that regard.
1. They launch satellites to a very low LEO orbit. The satellites use their onboard thrusters to get to their final orbits. This means that satellites that malfunction early in their life (the first lip of the bathtub[1]) deorbit in a matter of months. And they're so low, they don't affect anyone else.
2. And even Starlink satellites that do fail are at such a low orbital height that they'll spontaneously deorbit in 5-10 years.
---
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bathtub_curve
What cleanup costs?
Sure are an awful lot of armchair experts in here.
This place would be dreadfully quiet if only true experts were allowed to comment on anything.
I certainly enjoy reading some of these theories, even if the professionals in the hot seat disagree with their take.
I certainly enjoy reading some of these theories, even if the professionals in the hot seat disagree with their take.
I think part of that is the consequence of lack information. just what happened, but no why or other context.
Definitely reply with concrete rebuttals than denigrate the knowledge of others
I assume this is the new Boeing Intelsat MAX-8?
Mistletoe(1)