Why is Bitcoin so high?
10 comments
Encryption will most likely be broken
within 5 years with quantum computers.
Quantum resistant hard fork won't be easy
I agree that quantum computers that can break classic encryption is not coming any time soon. Maybe not ever
As for the Bitcoin market cap. That’s completely meaningless. There’s not $2T of value in Bitcoin. Any cryptocurrency can reach millions or even billions in market cap, and then go to zero in a day.
If make a cryptocurrency, give myself a trillion coins and sell you one for one dollar, does that mean that the market cap of one trillion dollars represents that there’s actually a trillion dollars of value in that cryptocurrency?
As for the Bitcoin market cap. That’s completely meaningless. There’s not $2T of value in Bitcoin. Any cryptocurrency can reach millions or even billions in market cap, and then go to zero in a day.
If make a cryptocurrency, give myself a trillion coins and sell you one for one dollar, does that mean that the market cap of one trillion dollars represents that there’s actually a trillion dollars of value in that cryptocurrency?
1) q day isn't coming. Certainly not soon. PQC work is in hand inside standards bodies. NIST made determinations here which people are following. Maybe blockchains will too.
2) it's all speculative behaviour. The amount of non speculative behaviour in this market is tiny. It could be millions of non speculative transactions and still be swamped by whales and market distorting behaviours.
3) buying land or other real goods or investing in services and industry is better for the world, but your returns across diverse investment will tend to the longterm mean of 7% not speculative monster multipliers.
4) there is specific speculation of Trump constructing a US federal policy toward bitcoin, including taking a position inside it, or changing the regulatory landscape. I think it's a bad idea but in these days, who can say bad ideas don't get air time?
5) realised value from crypto trading incurs tax. Don't be fooled into believing the gains won't be taxed. Don't be fooled into thinking they exist, are crystallised if they remain inside a chain. Nothing which generates this kind of value, speculative or not, avoids the eye of taxation, and forensic accountants I know say chains make tracing fraud and criminal assets and hidden profits easier not harder. The people who know how to avoid tax are the same people who kill for money. You'll be conned out of your asset, your life or both, if you pursue this aggressively enough with enough value.
2) it's all speculative behaviour. The amount of non speculative behaviour in this market is tiny. It could be millions of non speculative transactions and still be swamped by whales and market distorting behaviours.
3) buying land or other real goods or investing in services and industry is better for the world, but your returns across diverse investment will tend to the longterm mean of 7% not speculative monster multipliers.
4) there is specific speculation of Trump constructing a US federal policy toward bitcoin, including taking a position inside it, or changing the regulatory landscape. I think it's a bad idea but in these days, who can say bad ideas don't get air time?
5) realised value from crypto trading incurs tax. Don't be fooled into believing the gains won't be taxed. Don't be fooled into thinking they exist, are crystallised if they remain inside a chain. Nothing which generates this kind of value, speculative or not, avoids the eye of taxation, and forensic accountants I know say chains make tracing fraud and criminal assets and hidden profits easier not harder. The people who know how to avoid tax are the same people who kill for money. You'll be conned out of your asset, your life or both, if you pursue this aggressively enough with enough value.
> 1) q day isn't coming.
How come? Experts predict something like 5-10 years max.
> 5) realised value from crypto trading incurs tax.
Plenty of jurisdictions have 0% crypto tax.
How come? Experts predict something like 5-10 years max.
> 5) realised value from crypto trading incurs tax.
Plenty of jurisdictions have 0% crypto tax.
I think you may misunderstand or I do. NIST is concerned a 20 year secrecy requirement may be broken, I have seen no plausible projections stable qubits will exist in sufficient volume to compute current rsa 2048 bit keys.
Sure, there are jurisdictions without tax. America isn't one of them and the IRS assess worldwide income. If we're not talking about America then getting rights to use non tax jurisdictions you want to live in or be a citizen of is expensive and hard. Nor are most OECD economies zero tax. People who already have tens or hundreds of millions can afford to construct non Dom status. If you aren't already rich it's harder.
Sure, there are jurisdictions without tax. America isn't one of them and the IRS assess worldwide income. If we're not talking about America then getting rights to use non tax jurisdictions you want to live in or be a citizen of is expensive and hard. Nor are most OECD economies zero tax. People who already have tens or hundreds of millions can afford to construct non Dom status. If you aren't already rich it's harder.
US just announced half trillion investment into building Superintelligence. Will that not solve stable q-bit issue sooner?
Legacy quantum-unsafe P2PK outputs only represent about 10% of the current BTC supply. The other 90% are safe at rest - QC doesn't pose a threat to SHA256 or RIPEMD160. An early Q-day would certainly be disruptive, but it wouldn't destroy all value.
Finite resource, economics 101, supply and demand. That coupled with humans being irrational.
Wouldn't the rational choice at this point would be to acquire real estate (like Gate's buying farmland) and investing in tangible assets that won't be susceptible to Q-day worries? Or if one "invests" in crypto, at least buy quantum-safe cryptos?
Bitcoin and every other chain will migrate over to a quantum safe fork if it becomes a practical threat.
The real value of bitcoin isn't the algorithm, it's the address balances, viewed as a more important scorecard than the rest of crypto put together. Those numbers can be moved elsewhere, if necessary.
The real value of bitcoin isn't the algorithm, it's the address balances, viewed as a more important scorecard than the rest of crypto put together. Those numbers can be moved elsewhere, if necessary.
The usual argument "B-b-but banks will be insecure, too!"
Not quite. For banks and centralized entities it will be way easier to implement additional safeguards and transfer to post-quantum cryptography. For decentralized cryptocurrency - not quite so.