Travel agents took 10 years to collapse, developers are three years in(martinalderson.com)
martinalderson.com
Travel agents took 10 years to collapse, developers are three years in
https://martinalderson.com/posts/travel-agents-developers/
18 comments
It does seem like most of the American economy since factories left has been information asymmetry. The travel agents had the "special phone number" to call to get someone on a boat for half the price. Probably a little bit more than that. We're going to entering a time of crushing economic conditions.
Ironically, the advent of LLMs brings back the information asymmetry, bringing back the value of personal connections / recommendations.
Considering that the LLMs used by most people are owned by large companies, I'm not so sure about that long term.
Is early days yet.
Is early days yet.
I am not seeing the connection between ownership of LLMs and the public benefiting from personal connections due to digital information being untrustworthy due to LLMs.
For example, for employers and employees, hiring someone is easier if you know someone who knows someone.
For example, for employers and employees, hiring someone is easier if you know someone who knows someone.
I really don't understand the fetishisizing of the demise of software engineers. Are other knowledge workers like doctors or lawyers going to be exterminated by AI? Or is there even a fantasizing of their demise? The only reason I can think of is shmchaudenfreud (it is relatively barrierless to get into and pays pretty well) and more importantly imo doesn't have cabals like other professions do.
Btw I love using my Claude code to crank out product but I don't get off looking for the day when engineers are a dead breed!
Btw I love using my Claude code to crank out product but I don't get off looking for the day when engineers are a dead breed!
> I really don't understand the fetishisizing of the demise of software engineers.
I don't think it's "fetishisizing," it's fear. You have a bunch of comfortable software engineers suddenly realizing they may be in for the same fate as travel agents and blue-collar factory workers.
I don't think it's "fetishisizing," it's fear. You have a bunch of comfortable software engineers suddenly realizing they may be in for the same fate as travel agents and blue-collar factory workers.
Doctors and lawyers are also going away, it’s just harder to see as they’re not exposed as much to this technology yet, it’ll be more of a “flip a switch” moment for them.
Doctors might fare better since there are laws and regulations that require them.
Doctors might fare better since there are laws and regulations that require them.
while AI does lower the barrier to who can do software development it does not nullify their need only moves them into more complicated domains. Yes, if you're job as a SWE was building landing pages, you're pretty much cooked. But if you're working in complicated domains, or domains that require a level of technical awareness or social skills to create success, AI is just an amplifier and makes the boring/frustrating parts easier.
I am using claude to build a pretty complicated project. Technically, a lot of what i am prompting are things that other people could prompt. But I also do find myself leveraging a lot of knowledge in shaping what the code should do and how it should do it, and also needing to step in when claude reaches limits of it's training. I am confident that the number of people who could build what I am building is pretty small.
So I think the author is creating a narrative that is unfounded. There will always be software engineers. There will always be engineering challenges that it takes a human to resolve. Yes, always; no matter how "smart" the AI gets. For sure, AI will be taking some development jobs. But calling for a collapse is simply hyperbole, shortsighted and naive.
I am using claude to build a pretty complicated project. Technically, a lot of what i am prompting are things that other people could prompt. But I also do find myself leveraging a lot of knowledge in shaping what the code should do and how it should do it, and also needing to step in when claude reaches limits of it's training. I am confident that the number of people who could build what I am building is pretty small.
So I think the author is creating a narrative that is unfounded. There will always be software engineers. There will always be engineering challenges that it takes a human to resolve. Yes, always; no matter how "smart" the AI gets. For sure, AI will be taking some development jobs. But calling for a collapse is simply hyperbole, shortsighted and naive.
The interesting question is how much more software we actually need. Will software be done one day, all built up, similar to railway networks? With LLMs, software engineering might get cheaper, but it can also lead to increased demand. Resource getting cheaper actually very often leads to demand skyrocketing, as it becomes accessible to new markets.
Definitely feels like a good amount of dev work is writing the same things over and over, in a different language, codebase or context. And it seems like llms are particularly good at translating, specializing and contextualizing across existing knowledge.
Well we have 5000 front end frameworks, with more every day. I imagine once LLMs are in charge - they won’t need that many.
FWIW I just did in four hours what would have taken me about two weeks for my side project.
The boring routine parts of software engineering are no more. My project is elixir phoenix and tailwind. The AI and I completely overhauled my sites UI and UX and implemented many bug fixes and effectively relaunched my website in four hours.
If you were an experienced dev coming into this, you should definitely learn how to work with AI tools.
The boring routine parts of software engineering are no more. My project is elixir phoenix and tailwind. The AI and I completely overhauled my sites UI and UX and implemented many bug fixes and effectively relaunched my website in four hours.
If you were an experienced dev coming into this, you should definitely learn how to work with AI tools.
Two weeks of actual work? Or two weeks because you'd only be able to work on it for 20-30 minutes per day at the end of the day when you're already tired?
The latter of course! It's a whole new world of possibilities
Typing arcane language into a computer has never been the hard part of programming. Getting a flight ticket was the hard part of making travel happen. No Silver Bullet is as valid today as it was back then.