The Venezuelan Oil Narative Is Pure Theatre(renegaderesources.pro)
renegaderesources.pro
The Venezuelan Oil Narative Is Pure Theatre
https://renegaderesources.pro/p/the-venezuelan-oil-narative-is-pure
37 comments
If the author were correct, the remedy would require a full occupation, particularly including the least inhabited areas with the most difficult terrain. That being impracticable, we may not accept the author's postulates. The article is an example of whitewashing Ledeenism.
The article makes sense, but in a way it jumped over 1 thing.
The US has just as much as "rare" earths/minerals as China has, maybe even more. But getting these minerals is costly compared to China and other countries. The reason is environmental and labor.
Mining rare earths right now creates an environmental disaster in the area, land and water table destroyed. No community will let such a mine any where near them. And of course labor is far more expensive here.
So, maybe it is easier to put a puppet gov in place and allow mining companies wreak havoc in that country then trying to ramp up this type of mining in the US. Plus you get the benefit of large oil reserves.
But after seeing what happened in Iraq, I doubt even this will succeed.
The US has just as much as "rare" earths/minerals as China has, maybe even more. But getting these minerals is costly compared to China and other countries. The reason is environmental and labor.
Mining rare earths right now creates an environmental disaster in the area, land and water table destroyed. No community will let such a mine any where near them. And of course labor is far more expensive here.
So, maybe it is easier to put a puppet gov in place and allow mining companies wreak havoc in that country then trying to ramp up this type of mining in the US. Plus you get the benefit of large oil reserves.
But after seeing what happened in Iraq, I doubt even this will succeed.
This is far too simplistic. Yes there are some critical minerals and Russian and Chinese influence. But that's true in many countries. The Chinese are investing in infrastructure and mining all over the globe.
I think it's much simpler. Maduro became a fixation for Trump and the republicans mostly for ideological reasons. It's the same reason he rolled back normalization of relationships with Cuba under Obama. Venezuelan oil is critical to the Cuban economy. Cuban votes in Florida are important for republicans in Florida. Removing Maduro has many beneficial side effects at a very low cost. They might end up with fresh oil supplies, critical minerals, a more friendly regime, and it send a strong signal to countries like Panama, Cuba, and others that all are under a lot of pressure from Trump already. And they get to send back a lot of Venezuelan refugees.
The oil is probably not that critical. Over supply would actually be bad for US producers that are currently extracting at a relatively high cost. Investing in Venezuela sounds like a high risk type thing. The country has a history of revolutions. There's no guarantee that any investments today are worth anything in ten years. I doubt much will happen there.
This is about opportunism. Maduro was weak. Taking him out creates opportunities. Trump can score some points, send back some refugees, please oil companies, and put pressure on other countries in the region. I wouldn't credit him with any kind of long term strategy or vision. I don't think he actually cares what happens in ten years. And I don't think he cares about the significant international/diplomatic cost either. Some bridges were burned yesterday on that side. That might actually create problems elsewhere.
I think it's much simpler. Maduro became a fixation for Trump and the republicans mostly for ideological reasons. It's the same reason he rolled back normalization of relationships with Cuba under Obama. Venezuelan oil is critical to the Cuban economy. Cuban votes in Florida are important for republicans in Florida. Removing Maduro has many beneficial side effects at a very low cost. They might end up with fresh oil supplies, critical minerals, a more friendly regime, and it send a strong signal to countries like Panama, Cuba, and others that all are under a lot of pressure from Trump already. And they get to send back a lot of Venezuelan refugees.
The oil is probably not that critical. Over supply would actually be bad for US producers that are currently extracting at a relatively high cost. Investing in Venezuela sounds like a high risk type thing. The country has a history of revolutions. There's no guarantee that any investments today are worth anything in ten years. I doubt much will happen there.
This is about opportunism. Maduro was weak. Taking him out creates opportunities. Trump can score some points, send back some refugees, please oil companies, and put pressure on other countries in the region. I wouldn't credit him with any kind of long term strategy or vision. I don't think he actually cares what happens in ten years. And I don't think he cares about the significant international/diplomatic cost either. Some bridges were burned yesterday on that side. That might actually create problems elsewhere.
This has been planned since Trump's first term, so it's definitely not opportunism, but at the same time I think you're right that there's a personal element.
But it's overwhelmed by the geopolitics. China invests in minerals all over the world, but this is literally America's backyard, and America does not want to cede control.
But it's overwhelmed by the geopolitics. China invests in minerals all over the world, but this is literally America's backyard, and America does not want to cede control.
The people doing these literally hate liberals and liberal parts of the society.
This has been planned since Trump's first stint, where he declared fentanyl to be a 'weapon of mass destruction', and Maduro to be a 'narco-terrorist' (never mind that the fentanyl comes from China via Mexico).
This was a new term at the time, shifting drugs from a police issue to a military one, and obviously trying to manufacture consent for military intervention.
But Trump wasn't re-elected in 2020 so the plan stalled for 5 years. Now it's back. The military didn't 'asses threats' or whatever other garbage this piece claims, this is long pre-meditated.
But, the oil story is not quite what it seems either. Sure Trump wants to get his hands on all that oil and other resources, that's probably the only part he understands (and 'bad hombres').
But far more important for the Pentagon and people with actual brains, is to thwart China's influence in America's 'sphere of influence'. Venezuela is literally America's backyard, and the last time that was severely violated by a peer power, it almost led to armageddon (Cuba).
This was a new term at the time, shifting drugs from a police issue to a military one, and obviously trying to manufacture consent for military intervention.
But Trump wasn't re-elected in 2020 so the plan stalled for 5 years. Now it's back. The military didn't 'asses threats' or whatever other garbage this piece claims, this is long pre-meditated.
But, the oil story is not quite what it seems either. Sure Trump wants to get his hands on all that oil and other resources, that's probably the only part he understands (and 'bad hombres').
But far more important for the Pentagon and people with actual brains, is to thwart China's influence in America's 'sphere of influence'. Venezuela is literally America's backyard, and the last time that was severely violated by a peer power, it almost led to armageddon (Cuba).
Its also in project 2025.
The author blames interest in critical metals for the action.
Now, consider: Brazil has the second biggest known rare earth reserves in the World (second only to China). As a Brazilian, this scares me a bit.
Now, consider: Brazil has the second biggest known rare earth reserves in the World (second only to China). As a Brazilian, this scares me a bit.
Not sure I belive it, author says it's not because of oil because their oil infrastructure is bad, their rare earth infra is even worse, basically uncommercialized with no exports.
There is no concievable end game that put's the US ahead in any way, and right at this moment the constucted narative is unravelling faster then it can be spun.
Did they realy bomb the tomb of chavez?, blow up empty shipping cans and the homes of
some of the most oppresed people there?
but somehow leave the entire Venezuelan governing aparatus intact.
Nothing bieng proposed for how Venezuela will be carved up has a legal mechanism to be enacted with, the newly sworn in leader of Venezuela is defiant, "elections" are impossible, and just inserting another leader is essentialy impossible, so this theatrical production is very likely going to solidify resistance to American interests worldwide, and worse!, encourage every oportunistic "helper" that the US will need to put in front of the cameras.
China has folded it's arms, India can't belive how unhinged the whole thing has gotten, Russia is happily playing every angle, and the fucking euros are actualy standing up saying that "this is a good , but totaly illegal and unjustifyable action"
and wringing there hands while trump ridicules there selection for the peace prize.
wild
>...Venezuela, it is essential to understand who actually makes decisions of this magnitude. In the American national security apparatus, the Pentagon does not await presidential direction on major military operations.
I don't believe that for a minute - that the pentagon just decided to attack Venezuela without asking Trump.
I don't believe that for a minute - that the pentagon just decided to attack Venezuela without asking Trump.
It seems to be a nonsense theory since Trump is well known to work hard for the benefit of his oil buddies, to get them business and opportunities.
As for Iraq, it was founded on WMD lies to give rich contracts to Vice President Dick Cheney's firm Halliburton.
As for Iraq, it was founded on WMD lies to give rich contracts to Vice President Dick Cheney's firm Halliburton.
> If this were purely about oil,
Is anyone that naive at this point? The majority of us have learned to realize that these things are not as simple as they are presented (either by conspiracy theorist, the media, a/o politicians.) Put another way, is anyone saying it was purely about oil?
We do know Trump likes playing offense. His favorite strategy? Put the defender on its heels and keep them there. That said, was the drugs issue a cover? Could be. But does any other drug exporting country want to take that chance?
Is anyone that naive at this point? The majority of us have learned to realize that these things are not as simple as they are presented (either by conspiracy theorist, the media, a/o politicians.) Put another way, is anyone saying it was purely about oil?
We do know Trump likes playing offense. His favorite strategy? Put the defender on its heels and keep them there. That said, was the drugs issue a cover? Could be. But does any other drug exporting country want to take that chance?
> Put another way, is anyone saying it was purely about oil?
I think “popular” opinion is that this is just Iraq, again. So even if no one credible is saying it, I think a lot of people are saying it (I don’t have a link, but check any of the major Reddit threads, as a form of sentiment analysis).
And being clear, I’m not saying that does or doesn’t matter, or that social media sentiment matters. But a lot of (naive) people are buying the sold narrative.
I think “popular” opinion is that this is just Iraq, again. So even if no one credible is saying it, I think a lot of people are saying it (I don’t have a link, but check any of the major Reddit threads, as a form of sentiment analysis).
And being clear, I’m not saying that does or doesn’t matter, or that social media sentiment matters. But a lot of (naive) people are buying the sold narrative.
Watch out, cocaine exporters of the world, I guess, unless you buy your way with preferential access to American companies? Because, truly, I’m sure Trump would be much happier to trade off a drugs war for a narrative of economic opportunity.
Is Venezuela even a drug exporter country?
I mean, I understand that this is HN, and people here probably think that every country south of Texas is a drug exporting country full of Mexicans.
The main producers of drugs in South America are Colombia and Bolivia. Traditionally Colombia has the largest cartels.
I don't even think oil was the main goal of the US. There is no occupation of Venezuela, and not even a puppet dictator was put in place.
Maduro's vice president seems to be in power and there's no real indication that the Venezuelan government still in place will enact meaningful policy changes. Unless an actual occupation begins, the only thing I expect is that if the new government is too weakened the situation will spiral into a civil war of sorts.
I think that Trump just did something to take focus away from the whole Epstein deal for a bit.
I mean, I understand that this is HN, and people here probably think that every country south of Texas is a drug exporting country full of Mexicans.
The main producers of drugs in South America are Colombia and Bolivia. Traditionally Colombia has the largest cartels.
I don't even think oil was the main goal of the US. There is no occupation of Venezuela, and not even a puppet dictator was put in place.
Maduro's vice president seems to be in power and there's no real indication that the Venezuelan government still in place will enact meaningful policy changes. Unless an actual occupation begins, the only thing I expect is that if the new government is too weakened the situation will spiral into a civil war of sorts.
I think that Trump just did something to take focus away from the whole Epstein deal for a bit.
IIRC, Mexican cartels are the biggest producers of synthetic opioids.
https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/2025National...
https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/2025National...
Mexico, incidentally, is not in South America.
Thanks for proving my point for me.
Thanks for proving my point for me.
>I understand that this is HN, and people here probably think that every country south of Texas is a drug exporting country full of Mexicans.
I live in Jalisco. Your condescension isn’t really contributing anything to HN.
I live in Jalisco. Your condescension isn’t really contributing anything to HN.
> I think that Trump just did something to take focus away from the whole Epstein deal for a bit.
Trump is a highly emotional man driven by his feelings. Pete Hegseth is also a highly emotional man, openly driven by his feelings and notion of bully kind of masculinity. Vance is the most rational from the three, but still fairly on the emotional side.
And yet, people still insist on looking for rationalizations for what these do. Both with Trump and Hegseth, the feeling comes first. Something made them feel certain way or they want to feel certain way. Yes there are rational parts of motivation that combine with these.
But imo, the real truth is that ordering an attack and watching that attack happen makes them feel strong, powerful and like a manly man. These are intoxicating feelings. And all of that being real, real people dying, makes them much stronger then what one feels when playing computer game. They like this, on emotional level. And it is fair to guess they will continue doing this, because that is how guys addicted to own masculinity operate. They always need more.
Trump is a highly emotional man driven by his feelings. Pete Hegseth is also a highly emotional man, openly driven by his feelings and notion of bully kind of masculinity. Vance is the most rational from the three, but still fairly on the emotional side.
And yet, people still insist on looking for rationalizations for what these do. Both with Trump and Hegseth, the feeling comes first. Something made them feel certain way or they want to feel certain way. Yes there are rational parts of motivation that combine with these.
But imo, the real truth is that ordering an attack and watching that attack happen makes them feel strong, powerful and like a manly man. These are intoxicating feelings. And all of that being real, real people dying, makes them much stronger then what one feels when playing computer game. They like this, on emotional level. And it is fair to guess they will continue doing this, because that is how guys addicted to own masculinity operate. They always need more.
> I think that Trump just did something to take focus away from the whole Epstein deal for a bit.
The sole reason? That’s over the top. Did it contribute to the feasibility? Of course it did. Aside from loving to play offense, Trump is a master at the distraction(s). He knows ppl are obsessed with him (read: haters are going to hate) and he uses that to his advantage.
But to say this was a cover for the whole Epstein show is overthinking it.
But sure, I’ll entertain your theory… where is all the cocaine coming from then? North? Canada? East? Europe? South East? Africa???
The sole reason? That’s over the top. Did it contribute to the feasibility? Of course it did. Aside from loving to play offense, Trump is a master at the distraction(s). He knows ppl are obsessed with him (read: haters are going to hate) and he uses that to his advantage.
But to say this was a cover for the whole Epstein show is overthinking it.
But sure, I’ll entertain your theory… where is all the cocaine coming from then? North? Canada? East? Europe? South East? Africa???
> ppl are obsessed with him
He's an elected head of state. I think an informed electorate would be interested in continuously knowing what he's doing.
He's an elected head of state. I think an informed electorate would be interested in continuously knowing what he's doing.
Heavily bias, and often hypocritical does not qualify as “informed electorate.”
> But sure, I’ll entertain your theory… where is all the cocaine coming from then? North? Canada? East? Europe? South East? Africa???
Cocaine? Most of it is exported from Colombia and Bolivia if we are talking South America. Venezuela traditionally does not play a major role in international drug trafficking.
Other South American countries such as Paraguay and Brazil likely have a larger role than Venezuela.
> The sole reason? That’s over the top.
Trump has shown multiple times he has no problems in using state apparatus to his own benefit.
He is also an uber narcissist that is affected when the current news cycle is too negative.
Also, Trump has a particular modus operandi, one I actually find to be his main strength - He doesn't flinch of owning his transgressions. People accuse him of tax evasion? He just says that of course he does it.
The Epstein shit is one thing he can't own. What is he going to say? "yeah, I am a pedophile, every billionaire is"? This is the one thing he needs to keep deflecting.
Cocaine? Most of it is exported from Colombia and Bolivia if we are talking South America. Venezuela traditionally does not play a major role in international drug trafficking.
Other South American countries such as Paraguay and Brazil likely have a larger role than Venezuela.
> The sole reason? That’s over the top.
Trump has shown multiple times he has no problems in using state apparatus to his own benefit.
He is also an uber narcissist that is affected when the current news cycle is too negative.
Also, Trump has a particular modus operandi, one I actually find to be his main strength - He doesn't flinch of owning his transgressions. People accuse him of tax evasion? He just says that of course he does it.
The Epstein shit is one thing he can't own. What is he going to say? "yeah, I am a pedophile, every billionaire is"? This is the one thing he needs to keep deflecting.
I stated the comment thread saying there’s rarely a single reason. If you’ve come here to feed me CNN talking points and you’re expecting to change my mind, you should just move on. Thx
I didn't post the comment to change your mind. That would require me to presume you have enough of a mind to be changed.
I posted my comment for others to read, and they did. I have no reason to move on.
I posted my comment for others to read, and they did. I have no reason to move on.
zaktoo2(3)