I honestly think it's gonna be a decade to define this domain, and it's going to come with significant productivity costs. We need a git but to prevent LLMs from stabbing themself in the face. At that point you can establish an actual workflow for unfucking agents when they inevitably fuck themselves. After some time and some battery of testing you can also automate this process. This will take time, but eventually, one day, you can have a tedious process of describing an application you want to use over and over again until it actually works.... on some level, not guaranteed to be anything close to the quality of hand-crafted apps (which is in-line with the transition from assembly to high-level and now to whatever the fuck you want to call the katamari-damacy zombie that is the browser)
> I can’t believe riding a horse and carriage wouldn’t make you better at riding a horse.
Surely you mean "would"? Because riding a horse and carriage doesn't imply any ability at riding a horse, but the reverse relation would actually make sense, as you already have historical, experiential, intimate knowledge of a horse despite no contemporaneous, immediate physical contact.
Similarly, already knowing what you want to write would make you more proficient at operating a chatbot to produce what you want to write faster—but telling a chatbot a vague sense of the meaning you want to communicate wouldn't make you better at communicating. How would you communicate with the chatbot what you want if you never developed the ability to articulate what you want by learning to write?
EDIT: I sort of understand what you might be getting at—you can learn to write by using a chatbot if you mimic the chatbot like the chatbot mimics humans—but I'd still prefer humans learn directly from humans rather than rephrased by some corporate middle-man with unknown quality and zero liability.