dchyrdvh · HackerTrans

6 ปีที่แล้วdiscuss

But it's not deadly enough to reverse the climate change. Humans are smart animals: they will adopt to the virus real quick, restart the dirty economy machine, get their previous life expectancy back and suffocate in dirty air, water and unbearable weather. But they will die on their terms, with pride and dignity.

dchyrdvh

6 ปีที่แล้วdiscuss

That wouldn't justify surveillance.

dchyrdvh

6 ปีที่แล้วdiscuss

Because there are multiple paths and the virus really spreads like a wave frontier in a 10 dimensional space of human to human contacts graph. The virus also spreads in a non uniform way: it's not about the distance between two interacted persons, but about the nature of their interaction, whether they weared masks and so on. The virus also really likes to stick to surfaces, like door handles or plastic wraps, and this vector of transmission is very difficult to trace even manually. Think of credit cards. The virus floats in the air like smoke if someone coughed and others may catch it this way. An app can't account for that and instead builds a social graph of interactions. The app would notice a lot of people crowded in a parking lot and would assume the virus was transmitted between those 50 people, but it wouldn't know that all those people sit in their cars, so the app just made the transmission chain 50x less useless. A few more such gatherings and the relevance of tracing drops to those sub quantum levels of homeopathic medicine.

dchyrdvh

6 ปีที่แล้วdiscuss

They are doing well. The symptoms are the same as mild flu or allergy, and the effects are nearly non existent except in already old and sick. If half of infected got severe complications, it would be a blood bath with military on the streets already.

dchyrdvh

6 ปีที่แล้วdiscuss

The source is a very simple observation that if every 5th New Yorker has antibodies, half of those with symptoms would be noticeable.

dchyrdvh

6 ปีที่แล้วdiscuss

TBH, the real solution will be reopening the economy with masks on and social distancing. Vaccine is a pipe dream and by the time it might be created, everyone will have been infected a few times.

My conspiracy theory is that the government understands that very soon everyone will wear masks and sunglasses and all the face-recognition tracking will become useless, so to compensate for that, they are pushing hard for alternatives. Once masks get normalized and the infection rate drops to manageable levels, the opportunity to push this app surveillance will be lost.

dchyrdvh

6 ปีที่แล้วdiscuss

Yes, they all have no value.

Let's assume someone got bankrupted by a hospital over a severe coronavirus case. This means that someone has been wandering around for weeks infecting others. Let's assume there is a chain of 10 contacts between me and that someone. The probability of virus transmission is 1% (and I'm generous here) because more people wear masks, because people avoid talking and generally avoid interactions. Probability of transmission over 10 links is 10^-20 and we may stop right here, unless we plan to study quantum particles.

Now let's assume I get a notification that I might have been infected over the past few weeks. The probability that the app is correct is abysmally low. But even if I get infected, I'm unlikely to get sick and I'm unlikely to transmit the virus to others because masks, social distancing and because I already assume I'm infected.

So yeah, this app would be useless and is only good for surveillance.

dchyrdvh

6 ปีที่แล้วdiscuss

With 95% infected not showing any symptoms, contact tracing is pointless, as it will be about tracing contacts of those few severely ill. With this in mind, contact tracing is really just a way to sell survelliance to people and then seal it in laws.

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