* A plan exists
* The plan itself predicts non-obvious results in smaller systems, and those tests have passed (prediction written *before* running test)
* A bunch of smart people have looked at it and said, "Yes, this looks plausible"
The closest thing to a plan is RLHF, which has failed every toy problem its been thrown at and made everyone in the field say "even if this worked in toy problems, it wouldn't generalize". 1934: This is predicted
1997: This is done http://www.nytimes.com/1997/09/16/science/scientists-use-light-to-create-particles.html
2014: We will "demonstrate the feat within the next 12 months"
2015: Didn't bother
He says he is not planning to bomb any data centers, but he's also said that if he were planning to bomb data centers, he'd lie about it in public, so...