> Given that this time it is not, your belief for lab leak should decrease a bit.
China's ambitions and role in the World are very different in 2020 than they were in 2004. If China manages to contain this pandemic better than the US and Europe, it'll come out relatively stronger.
We do not have hard evidence about the lab leak hypothesis and we must have it before drawing any conclusions. The timing of the economic repercussions on the US/EU seems to come at a strategically perfect time for China to gain politically. This would be a much better alternative to a way and much easier to cover up. All relevant evidence may have been wiped away, for all we know.
All I am saying is that there are definitely reasons to have different Bayesian priors in 2020 compared to 2004. Evidence is still weak, I agree.
China's ambitions and role in the World are very different in 2020 than they were in 2004. If China manages to contain this pandemic better than the US and Europe, it'll come out relatively stronger.
We do not have hard evidence about the lab leak hypothesis and we must have it before drawing any conclusions. The timing of the economic repercussions on the US/EU seems to come at a strategically perfect time for China to gain politically. This would be a much better alternative to a way and much easier to cover up. All relevant evidence may have been wiped away, for all we know.
All I am saying is that there are definitely reasons to have different Bayesian priors in 2020 compared to 2004. Evidence is still weak, I agree.