I think another important question is can you distill taste? (another comment uses the phrase "externalize", which might mean something similar).
I think people have been trying for the written word, with some degree of success (anti-slop skills). I have been trying for visuals, and it's pretty meh. It's easy to get a multimodal LLM to follow a style guide, but a style guide doesn't capture everything that accounts for taste. And anything that is dynamic (not a screenshot test) seems really hard or really expensive.
What you are describing applies to all forms of money. It has value because people believe other people will use it as money. If that belief drops, the value drops.
People comment on gold and Bitcoin, but don't realize the same principles apply to US dollars and bonds.
That is the beauty of the Resolution part of prediction markets. If evil DDT Corp bets money to skew the market, then they lose even more money on the Resolution (assuming the resolution is deterministic of harm and has not been manipulated).
Imagine bad (incorrect and potentially harmful) information is public knowledge. Examples are "X cures cancer" or "Is Y dangerous to consume".
A prediction market will be seeded by public knowledge (of course it cures cancer or its safe to consume), which you describe "suckers". History is filled with many examples of bad public knowledge that turned out to be false (e.g. DDT is safe pesticide).
An insider (someone who knows the drug trial results, or works at the Corp creating the harmful substance) is incentivized to trade on that knowledge, which creates a better informed public (via people who pay attention to prediction markets).
Why does secret(insider) knowledge exist? To the benefit of the organization that wants to keep the knowledge secret. Insider trading laws purpose is to keep Corp and gov orgs in power. They prevent the dissemination of true information (for private power). Prediction markets incentivize the dissemination of true information, a public good.
So because Quebec ancestors killed all the people who opposed the conquest of that land, it's okay for Quebec to secede?
But because another set of Canadians didn't kill off all the natives that still claimed Alberta's land, they can't secede legally?
Is that the logic?
What's great about this article is it's a falsifiable hypothesis. Is anyone keeping a list of companies in different sectors not firing due to AI? We can revisit this in 2 years and see how we did.
Solar panels on surface get ~70% less energy than in space once you factor in atmosphere absorption, day/night, weather, etc.
Solar + battery on the surface is not economically viable versus nat gas generators (excluding externalities)
I think people have been trying for the written word, with some degree of success (anti-slop skills). I have been trying for visuals, and it's pretty meh. It's easy to get a multimodal LLM to follow a style guide, but a style guide doesn't capture everything that accounts for taste. And anything that is dynamic (not a screenshot test) seems really hard or really expensive.