To truly understand perf, ideally one should compare many types and sizes of models. I suspect some model types perform substantially better on the newer ANE / OS compared with others.
I think the economy is hitting real, hard barriers in resource extraction, energy usage, and number of people that buy and sell. That’s where stagnation comes from.
The real economy will stagnate. AI can automate some work and intensify future technological discoveries, but that won’t make energy any cheaper, clean our environment, create more humans, or make resources as easily extractable as they were 100 years ago.
The real economy can’t grow too much more than it’s current size, at least in the physical world.
Even if I do retain a profit when selling, we’re going to be trading down to a worse house. Payments for the same house now based on the Redfin estimate and current interest rates are more than double.
Given how bad the tech sector is doing now that the real world is back post lockdowns, I’m not comfortable taking on that much more of a payment.
Do I love my 5br house in Seattle that I pay only $3200 a month for? Yes. Low rates and low prices made that possible for a brief moment in 2020.
Will we be here forever? No… I don’t think I want to raise kids in the city. Everything is densifying and that’s not for me. But as rates continue to rise, the financial cost of moving seems increasingly large. We might be stuck here for the entire mortgage term if prices drop below 2020 prices, which is feasible if rates continue to rise for the next few years. Payment a few thousand a month higher, purchase price a few hundred k lower.
I could always rent it out. I really do want to preserve this old house and it would need to go the right tenant that takes care of it, likely for a below market rent in exchange. However, given how absolutely unfriendly rental laws are in Seattle and how little choice I’ll really have in a tenant as a result, I’m very averse to that. Maybe I’ll just leave it empty once enough time passes for the payment to be inflated away to a negligible amount.
I suspect inventory will stay low for these reasons. People either can’t move, don’t have an incentive to rent out their place, or will rent and not sell to avoid catastrophic losses.
Zoning laws make sure a community stays as the community desires. A community bans large apartment buildings for the same reason they ban power plants; construction benefits the property owner at the detriment of adjacent property owners.
At least be straightforward with the reasoning, then. If the mainstream YIMBY said "I want to live in your neighborhood and I can't afford it, therefore the zoning should be changed", or "you're too rich because of zoning so I want to remove it so we are more equal," I'd have more respect.
But usually it's something about how mixed use neighborhoods are better, or how someone on minimum wage can't afford to live on their own in a very expensive neighborhood. Ok, but those probably aren't the real reasons you're advocating for change. Just be direct.
Language that straightforward is surprisingly hard to find among the YIMBY croud.
I intentionally left out YIMBY moral grandstanding, because it's usually a shield to hide the real reason they feel zoning should be changed: "I can't afford your neighborhood and I want to live there"
The YIMBYs want to move to your neighborhood, so you and your neighbors are obligated to make as much space for them as needed. Oh, you like your neighborhood how it is?
Don't worry, you'll learn to love <relying on public transport instead of cars, no parking, increased traffic, blocked out sunlight, tiny and eventually no yards, large buildings next door>. Your way of living is bad because cars and sprawl are bad and YIMBYs don't like them, they think the walkable urban mixed use neighborhoods are superior, so we're going to remove the zoning to force change. Aren't those things what you want?
No? Well you'll learn to like them, because you shouldn't have power over what your neighbor can build on their property. You say your neighborhood overwhelmingly votes to keep it that way, not just you? Actually, your neighborhood shouldn't have power to vote for this zoning either, because we know what's best for your neighborhood, not you.
I would consider zoning codes law. To argue otherwise is pedantic.
Sorry, just because you want to live somewhere, doesn’t entitle you to enough units built there for you to afford it.
I’d love to live in Atherton. But I can’t afford it. I don’t try and get more units built there when the community clearly doesn’t want that, so I choose somewhere else.
The neighborhood owns the neighborhood, and they vote to keep it low density. It’s not like there’s a single homeowner voting to control what the entire city builds.
NIMBYs (the community and vast majority of single family homeowners) don’t want to see their neighborhoods overcrowded and changed completely by density, because they moved to such a neighborhood to get away from density. So they vote as a group to keep their neighborhoods nice low density places to live.
Meanwhile, YIMBY people in dense areas think they should have the final say over what SFR neighborhoods feel like and how they develop, even though they don’t even live there.
It’s never the other way around. No single family homeowner NIMBYs push back against another apartment building in an already dense area in the city nextdoor. Yet YIMBYs feel so strongly about controlling low density townships they don’t even live in that they advocate for state preemption. That preemption forces those places to change to adopt the YIMBY vision of walkability, density, public transport, and less cars, something few to none of the residents in that community want.
But his neighborhood owns his neighborhood, and they vote to continue the multifamily zoning ban. Clearly if this was only Marc’s preference, it wouldn’t be law.
Surely the solution is to build more places for people to be employed rather than overcrowding existing ones and forcing people to commute from far away. COVID showed us the office centric commuter world is not necessary. I understand some people must be onsite, but still, drastic commute reductions and spreading out of people is a good thing.
Whisper small and base are coming in the next release as well, so look out for that in the next week or two.