Happy to answer questions as to the sources used (Kalshi and Metaculus) and the conditional probabilities assigned:
- P(bird flu as bad as covid | 10,000 US cases) = .5
- P(bird flu as bad as covid | CDC travel advisory) = .1
According to a study of 700 ML researchers (not AI safety) the median chance that that the long-run effect of advanced AI on humanity will be “extremely bad (e.g., human extinction)" is 5%. And 48% of respondents gave an answer of 10% or more.
We (Newspeak House) would love to see one created. If you know people in that space, put up some tech and share it. Feel free to use our template if you credit us.