the ur-text behind this piece is: people just not understanding exponential capability growth. including the author of the piece!
if you could look clearly at the progress from 2020 to 2023, as someone like Gwern did, and from 2023 to 2024 with the invention of reasoning modes, then it was not that hard to understand what would happen in late 2025. Opus 4.5 was not a surprise to anyone who was actually paying attention.
But people (including the author) still mistake the current state as a stable state and future gains as incremental. he says
“I am not asserting that all code will eventually be AI-generated to spec, bypassing human understanding”
I AM asserting that, and it’s incredibly easy to do so.
A lot of folks here are making some version of the observation that an immutable public unforgeable database is, in practice, equivalent to ANY database which is sponsored by the state. That feels persuasive to me.
Does this imply that the blockchain ledger might have greater utility in areas where there is weak or no state control? Basically, the criminal underworld and black markets. What's been written about this?
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Come help us build a new spatial product & platform touching on numerous tech stacks and all major platforms.
The crew at Magnopus are smart, they are good communicators, and they are gracious. So ideally you're like that, too. These are growth roles in a growing company in a growing team; you will not only ensure we get good results up front, but you will also have an opportunity to set best practices that will serve us for years to come.
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Magnopus is an experience company with deep expertise in AR, VR, mixed reality, and virtual production. The company was founded by a team of Oscar-winning artists, designers, and engineers from games, films, and other unusual places. We’re passionate about creating rich experiences that bridge the physical and digital worlds in ways people haven’t experienced yet.
We are building a new product and platform encompassing front end, back end, and middleware -- and covering desktop, web, mobile, VR, and AR.
The crew at Magnopus are smart, they are good communicators, and they are gracious. So ideally you're like that, too. These are all growth roles in a growing company in a growing team; you will not only ensure we get good results up front, but you will also have an opportunity to set best practices that will serve us for years to come.
(Other positions are also open, including Security Engineer.)
Magnopus is an experience company with deep expertise in AR, VR, mixed reality, and virtual production. The company was founded by a team of Oscar-winning artists, designers, and engineers from games, films, and other unusual places. We’re passionate about creating rich experiences that bridge the physical and digital worlds in ways people haven’t experienced yet.
We are building a new platform encompassing front end, back end, and middleware -- and covering desktop, mobile, VR, and AR. To ensure robustness and quality in everything we build, we need a skilled Software Development Engineer in Test (SDET) to design, create, and own automated testing and test infrastructure.
The crew at Magnopus are smart, they are good communicators, and they are gracious. So ideally you're like that, too. This is a growth role in a growing company in a growing team; you will not only ensure we get good results up front, but you will also have an opportunity to set best practices that will serve us for years to come.
(Other positions are also open, including Security Engineer.)
if you could look clearly at the progress from 2020 to 2023, as someone like Gwern did, and from 2023 to 2024 with the invention of reasoning modes, then it was not that hard to understand what would happen in late 2025. Opus 4.5 was not a surprise to anyone who was actually paying attention.
But people (including the author) still mistake the current state as a stable state and future gains as incremental. he says
“I am not asserting that all code will eventually be AI-generated to spec, bypassing human understanding”
I AM asserting that, and it’s incredibly easy to do so.
The question of “when” is separate.