Shippos USPS Time in Transit Data(goshippo.com)
goshippo.com
Shippos USPS Time in Transit Data
https://goshippo.com/usps-data-2020/
76 comments
One thing this doesn't account for is fraudulent delivery reports. In my area a large percentage of my USPS deliveries are reported as delivered around 6pm on the scheduled delivery day, but I can't find the package anywhere. Then it suddenly turns up the next day. People on NextDoor also report seeing this regularly.
I had the same experience (especially in populous metro areas like NY). It's not just with USPS, but also with FedEx.
I called FedEx support and they explained me why this happens. Turns out, people who deliver packages/mail have strict deadline to deliver their packages and on days when there are just too many for them to finish delivering everything, they mark it as delivered and actually deliver the package on the day after.
I called FedEx support and they explained me why this happens. Turns out, people who deliver packages/mail have strict deadline to deliver their packages and on days when there are just too many for them to finish delivering everything, they mark it as delivered and actually deliver the package on the day after.
Wait, you're telling me that FedEx support explained that their drivers are defrauding their customers?
FedEx contracts out a lot of last mile delivery for non-guaranteed packages to USPS. It's possible the rep was referring to that on the phone. I too have noticed USPS delivery notifications to be completely worthless for the same reasons.
If I send something via DHL to my data center, I have to add the data centers PO Box to the delivery address because DHL hands it off to USPS. USPS won't deliver it to the address for who knows what reason. Someone at the data center has to drive into town and pick it up at the PO Box.
Sorting this out the first time was me spending hours on the phone calling between DHL and USPS to find out where the package was and what was happening.
Even more inane is that USPS uses a ~20 digit number for tracking packages. Imagine reading that on the phone to a customer support person. I can't believe nobody thought to use base-32 encoding [0].
[0] https://github.com/stickfigure/unsuck/blob/b4dff541d756303ca...
Sorting this out the first time was me spending hours on the phone calling between DHL and USPS to find out where the package was and what was happening.
Even more inane is that USPS uses a ~20 digit number for tracking packages. Imagine reading that on the phone to a customer support person. I can't believe nobody thought to use base-32 encoding [0].
[0] https://github.com/stickfigure/unsuck/blob/b4dff541d756303ca...
Same thing happened to me. It was a pretty expensive laptop too. Went from a day we were set to be home, to the next day when nobody was home but we couldn't change how it was being delivered because "it was already delivered" despite it not showing up and them admitting the same thing as above.
I had USPS report a package "delivered" but it never showed up. Waited a few days, contacted the vendor who shipped out a replacement (it was a couple of bucks of mechanical bits).
Two months later I open up the mailbox and there's the original shipment.
I have to wonder if they actually track anything. It feels more like they make an estimate of the delivery route/time and play it back to you regardless of whether it's actually happening.
Two months later I open up the mailbox and there's the original shipment.
I have to wonder if they actually track anything. It feels more like they make an estimate of the delivery route/time and play it back to you regardless of whether it's actually happening.
I personally think they do actually track things, but I would guess the postal workers are held to some kind of metric for delivery times. I think if they know they don't have the time to actually deliver your package then they'll often mark it as delivered when it hasn't been, then they just deliver it the next day. In your case it sounds like maybe your package got lost somewhere in the truck after they had already marked it as delivered.
This is all speculation based on my experiences with USPS.
This is all speculation based on my experiences with USPS.
I had this happening to me as well.
It defeats the whole purpose of tracking.
If employees are doing this, this means something else should change, either extend delivery times, hire more people, optimize how things are done etc
It defeats the whole purpose of tracking.
If employees are doing this, this means something else should change, either extend delivery times, hire more people, optimize how things are done etc
Agreed. And not to single out USPS here either, I've absolutely had FedEx drivers sneak up to the door to hang a "We attempted delivery" tag without ringing the bell. I assume they're running out of time and don't want to wait to see if someone answers the door or not.
It depends on what stage of delivery they're scanning the packages. I used to ship a lot of small packages for a small business, and noticed:
- they don't get scanned into tracking until they get processed at the facility, which can take a day
- they sometimes get scanned "out" when they're loaded onto the truck, rather than at delivery point.
Since the directive is now to leave on time, rather than wait for all the packages to make it onto the truck, I bet they're getting scanned out and then waiting on the floor for the next day's truck to actually get delivered.
UPS/FedEx etc use handheld scanners at the delivery point, so they have to deal with employees faking delivery and making up for it later.
- they don't get scanned into tracking until they get processed at the facility, which can take a day
- they sometimes get scanned "out" when they're loaded onto the truck, rather than at delivery point.
Since the directive is now to leave on time, rather than wait for all the packages to make it onto the truck, I bet they're getting scanned out and then waiting on the floor for the next day's truck to actually get delivered.
UPS/FedEx etc use handheld scanners at the delivery point, so they have to deal with employees faking delivery and making up for it later.
The next day would be amazing. I've seen things reported delivered that only turn up a week or more later. Only with USPS
I see this so routinely with USPS delivery that I now assume "ah, this will arrive some time tomorrow" when I get the "Delivered" notification.
USPS said they delivered my package on Sunday, but it magically showed up Wednesday.
Fwiw on several occasions I've had packages delivered to the wrong address (e.g. 200 East Main not 200 West Main) that were obviously "redelivered" by whoever lives at that address. This could explain your findings perhaps?
I live in a rural area (this time of year I can only see one other house from my house), and I have had a few delivery people complain that they couldn't find my house when looking for it on East Joy Rd instead of West Joy, but the fact that my address doesn't exist on the other side helps. I also know most of my neighbors and I am pretty sure none of them are walking the packages over.
It is possible that this is what is happening, but I don't think it is likely.
It is possible that this is what is happening, but I don't think it is likely.
Personally I experience this way more with Fedex - literally its nearly every time. I haven't had this happen except for a couple of times with USPS over the last 2-3 years (been in the same apartment for about that long).
I had that happen with UPS at my last address: One of my relatives put the wrong address on a box, and then UPS decided to deliver the next 5 boxes to that same wrong address. At least it was consistent and I knew where to look.
I have the same experience, with one or two USPS fake deliveries. None from UPS that I can recall (but fewer packages overall than USPS). Meanwhile Fedex Ground has seemingly adopted a policy of doing whatever it takes to mark a package as delivered, including just leaving them down by the road where they can be easily stolen.
It's all down to your individual carriers and local depot management though. My local Fedex Ground depot doesn't seem to care at all, so my only recourse is to avoid having things I care about shipped Fedex. Which by itself is another reason the USPS needs to be kept operating - so at least we have three options instead of the characteristic duopoly of modern antitrust enforcement.
It's all down to your individual carriers and local depot management though. My local Fedex Ground depot doesn't seem to care at all, so my only recourse is to avoid having things I care about shipped Fedex. Which by itself is another reason the USPS needs to be kept operating - so at least we have three options instead of the characteristic duopoly of modern antitrust enforcement.
Hmm interesting. I had a package I mailed to a relative stolen off their porch and subsequently did a moderately deep dive with USPS staff to try to identify the thief. Those folks told me that there is GPS on the delivery vehicle/handheld scanner such that they have the time and location of the delivery event, and the location of the vehicle at the time. That story seems inconsistent with yours.
I get about 2-5 packages a day delivered to my home, and USPS regularly exhibits this behaviour. The delivery tracker states a package is delivered, though the package doesn't appear until hours or even a day later.
Is it really inconsistent? The technology is there to investigate if someone raises a stink, but if no complaint is made, no one investigates/correlates delivery reporting vs the data you mention.
I honestly believe many delivery drivers (not just USPS, but Amazon, UPS, FedEx, etc) are brazen because they get away with it 99% of the time.
I honestly believe many delivery drivers (not just USPS, but Amazon, UPS, FedEx, etc) are brazen because they get away with it 99% of the time.
I agree, i've had not insignificant amount of delivered then show up three days later packages with USPS over the past 5 or so years. Mostly business deliveries, but i've had a few I had to report as lost to the shipper. In a couple instances we've had things show up two months or so later found. Which I suppose happens, but I've only had one UPS package lost in the same time frame and none for fedex.
At my house we have a communal mailbox bank (which seems to be normal now for most new construction). I would bet that 1/4 packages of mine are delivered to the wrong box / placed in the wrong box. So some of it now can at least be attributed to those mistakes.
At my house we have a communal mailbox bank (which seems to be normal now for most new construction). I would bet that 1/4 packages of mine are delivered to the wrong box / placed in the wrong box. So some of it now can at least be attributed to those mistakes.
I’ve consistently seems this exact behavior on every package delivered by usps lately. It shows up typically the next day but twice it took multiple days to find its way to my mailbox.
And I saw someone else’s note about it being redlivered by an individual; we use locked boxes here that the mail carrier has a master key to the back, they are the only one getting in easily.
One key metric missing (unless I’m blind) is time to acceptance scan. I do a lot of shipping and don’t have time to have the packages scanned in every day so I use the drop box. Last few months it’s taken the post office an extra day or two to even scan them in. So while the packages must only be on average 5-10% late they’re also being delayed a day or more just sitting waiting to be accepted.
It hurt my eBay rating too before I could catch it happening. I’ve resorted to using the scans form just to make sure they’re the ones taking blame, not me.
It hurt my eBay rating too before I could catch it happening. I’ve resorted to using the scans form just to make sure they’re the ones taking blame, not me.
Not being as familiar with shipping, how would one find the metrics for this?
Is there some kind of an initial "scan" upon drop-in to the box and then a second scan when they pick it up?
If not, then I imagine the metrics would only be discoverable from USPS themselves, which of course, they are going to muzzle.
Is there some kind of an initial "scan" upon drop-in to the box and then a second scan when they pick it up?
If not, then I imagine the metrics would only be discoverable from USPS themselves, which of course, they are going to muzzle.
You'd have to compare the label creation date with the scan date.
Example one of the ones I got dinged on:
Jun 30, 2020 7:29pm Tracking number provided
Jul 3, 2020 6:45am Accepted at USPS Origin Facility BEAVERTON, OR 97078
It was dropped off Jul 1 in the early morning. Ended up sitting there for two days before they got around to scanning. Admittedly it has gotten better the last couple weeks but it can still take them a day.
The easiest way around this though is using a scans form which is just a printout where they can scan once and it marks all of the packages as accepted at once. It still takes time to prepare the form, print and find someone at the dock or drop window to scan it - they don't seem to particularly like doing it.
Example one of the ones I got dinged on:
Jun 30, 2020 7:29pm Tracking number provided
Jul 3, 2020 6:45am Accepted at USPS Origin Facility BEAVERTON, OR 97078
It was dropped off Jul 1 in the early morning. Ended up sitting there for two days before they got around to scanning. Admittedly it has gotten better the last couple weeks but it can still take them a day.
The easiest way around this though is using a scans form which is just a printout where they can scan once and it marks all of the packages as accepted at once. It still takes time to prepare the form, print and find someone at the dock or drop window to scan it - they don't seem to particularly like doing it.
When you drop off a package at the post office, you can either wait in line for an agent at the counter to scan your package (only during business hours) and give you a receipt or you can place them in a drop box (open 24/7). The drop box usually has a last pickup time on the label (3pm, 5pm, etc) for when someone actually collects the contents and then scan in the packages to get them into the sorting/tracking system. The problem is that sometimes these bins of packages might sit for a while until someone scans them for the first time. There is a bin behind the wall for the drop box and if it gets full, they pull up a new bin for the drop box so there could be multiple bins of packages that need to be scanned.
You would need to search the tracking number and see when the first scan occurs. Shippo is only looking at shipping label creation date which could be offset quite some time from when the package gets scanned. Large businesses might have enough employees to where they can pack, label, and ship out an order that day but small businesses might have someone hand delivering packages to the post office every other day.
You would need to search the tracking number and see when the first scan occurs. Shippo is only looking at shipping label creation date which could be offset quite some time from when the package gets scanned. Large businesses might have enough employees to where they can pack, label, and ship out an order that day but small businesses might have someone hand delivering packages to the post office every other day.
This feels like a missed opportunity. There's a lot of data Shippo could share about USPS and that would help add more context to what's happening in the news. But it's difficult to understand anything concrete from this. It would be more helpful to see how this fits into long term trends and other context on how abnormal it is.
Perhaps we should let Newman, our favorite fictional postman, represent?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22Fr-g-B0vs
Mail service dysfunction has been going on a long time, and has been a joke for a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22Fr-g-B0vs
Mail service dysfunction has been going on a long time, and has been a joke for a long time.
Cool to have some “observability” on this, but it’s not the most relevant metric. I’ve heard of (and experienced myself), much, much longer delays on envelope/letter mail, but have heard of fewer delays with packages.
Perhaps this is a proxy for measuring personnel/process changes, but totally misses the sorting machine dismantling going on throughout the nation.
Perhaps this is a proxy for measuring personnel/process changes, but totally misses the sorting machine dismantling going on throughout the nation.
Fortunately the sorting machine dismantling has been stopped for the relevant future.
Thank you for putting this together. Independent data sources are vital, since we know this administration does everything they can to hide reality.
I wonder if business mail is being handled differently than civilian mail - I mail letters to my Mother 1-2 times a week and standard delivery times have gone from (always) 2-3 days between Medford, OR and Mount Vernon, WA to 8-12 days for the last 4 letters I sent that she has received. And the most recent 2 appear to be on the same trajectory. It is sort of wild, though just an anecdote. I have been sending her letters for decades from various parts of the Western states and this has never happened before.
Various sources indicate that some post offices are specifically prioritizing the delivery of Amazon parcels (and presumably highest-cost business mail in general) over other mail, so it would make sense if civilian letters and postcards are eating the vast majority of the delay.
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia/usps-tracking-in-...
https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia/usps-tracking-in-...
First class letters are slow. Packages not so much (better revenue).
There were reports of live animal dying because of delays or prescription being missed.
I do see much less mail in mailbox than I had before. I also had informed delivery set up and now I'm told I'm not eligible (when it worked a month or two before). Frustrating, because this is time when the informed delivery would actually let me know if I'm actually missing some mail.
I do see much less mail in mailbox than I had before. I also had informed delivery set up and now I'm told I'm not eligible (when it worked a month or two before). Frustrating, because this is time when the informed delivery would actually let me know if I'm actually missing some mail.
The real fact is you are being played in an election year game by the Postal Union whose declared who they are backing unequivocally. Go chat up a CCA, I have two I know and one lives in my neighborhood but it close to quitting now. They are basically the equivalent of those food delivery service drivers but without the freedom to choose when they work.
As in, they get shat upon by a small but not insignificant number of regular carriers who know how to game the system let alone see CCAs are beneath them in every way. You want the truth about how this service has been running for years, well before recent issues, just google CCA horror stories.
This whole debacle is an engineered slow down by the union using the typical quiet encouragement that never has official backing but crawls along emails and word of mouth.
The worst Post Office examples you see in the press have always been this bad. There is no consistent management across the system. One place is well run and the next can be nightmare fuel.
tl;dr this is all an election year con job designed to make you come to one conclusion relying on the disposition of many to automatically assume any negative story concerning the current administration is true; while the current administration sucks on many levels much of what is claimed isn't always exactly true.
ps: HN is being bombarded by thinly veiled election year propaganda and sadly eats it up. the number of stories deserving to be flagged reaches ridiculous levels at these times.
As in, they get shat upon by a small but not insignificant number of regular carriers who know how to game the system let alone see CCAs are beneath them in every way. You want the truth about how this service has been running for years, well before recent issues, just google CCA horror stories.
This whole debacle is an engineered slow down by the union using the typical quiet encouragement that never has official backing but crawls along emails and word of mouth.
The worst Post Office examples you see in the press have always been this bad. There is no consistent management across the system. One place is well run and the next can be nightmare fuel.
tl;dr this is all an election year con job designed to make you come to one conclusion relying on the disposition of many to automatically assume any negative story concerning the current administration is true; while the current administration sucks on many levels much of what is claimed isn't always exactly true.
ps: HN is being bombarded by thinly veiled election year propaganda and sadly eats it up. the number of stories deserving to be flagged reaches ridiculous levels at these times.
I'm sympathetic to the idea that mainstream media is a giant propaganda machine, and that the parties they focus blame on aren't necessarily the ones pulling the strings.
But how does your theory explain the sorting machines being scrapped, and more specifically DeJoy's order to not reconnect machines without his direct approval? Surely if he were an above board postmaster merely trying to reign in the union, caring about low level equipment decomissioning would be less of a priority?
But how does your theory explain the sorting machines being scrapped, and more specifically DeJoy's order to not reconnect machines without his direct approval? Surely if he were an above board postmaster merely trying to reign in the union, caring about low level equipment decomissioning would be less of a priority?
It’s too bad some of these numbers are reported as averages. It would be nice to see something more percentile based, like p75 or p90, which are more effective ways of measuring quality of service
I'd like to see this data grouped by the population density of the origin zip code.
I think this marketing site would perform better if it had a pretty version of the most interesting graph above the fold.
I think shippers like Amazon pay relatively high rates to USPS, so they are higher on the priority list.
It's the heavily-discounted "slow" shipping like medicine that is having trouble right now.
It's the heavily-discounted "slow" shipping like medicine that is having trouble right now.
Does anybody have this data about letters? We need a canary letter mailing service for analytics.
Does USPS publish transit metrics directly? If not, they should.
Most election mail will be sent zone 0 (Local) or 1.
This analysis only covers USPS package delivery, which is different from flats. Ballots are flats. Magazines are flats. Letters are flats. Anything non-bendable isn't.
This is what has been happening to USPS, folks:
1. Because of COVID19, flats volume has collapsed, while package volume has skyrocketed. Flats sorting machines can do absolutely nothing for packages for reasons that are left up to the reader, so USPS has been shutting them down and moving them out of processing facilities in favor of package sorting.
2. Because USPS is losing lots of money overall (higher package volume doesn't make up for the collapse in flats volume)[1], it has been cutting back on overtime, just like any other employer would.
3. People hear about 1 and 2, hear about/experience packages being delivered more slowly, and think that this surely means that "the Trump administration is trying to sabotage the post office to suppress voting!!!!". They do this without thinking about it at all:
3a. As stated, flats volume has collapsed, so there is still a lot of excess capacity.
3b. Even if every single voter were to vote by mail only, this would mean at most two additional flat pieces per voter (one ballot to the voter, and one ballot sent back). Think about how much mail (not packages, mail) you already receive daily on average. Do you really think two additional pieces would collapse the system? Of course not, any more than the USPS collapses every January when the IRS and every single employer, bank, and other financial institution sends out tax-related documents. (The USPS hires seasonal help in December for packages, not for Christmas cards.)
3c. If this really were a sinister Trump administration voter-suppression scheme, it's a pretty weak one that can be defeated by dropping ballots off in person, and/or voting in person.
4. An actual serious issue is states and counties that aren't like Oregon (which has been 100% vote by mail for two decades) trying to convert to vote by mail without preparation. Think of how much mail your home receives for the previous tenant (and the one before that, and the one before that). Think of this all having to be done by early October, to give voters about a month to receive and return ballots. This is what the administration has been pointing out, something rarely heard amidst the nonsense about mail-vote suppression.
[1] Congress mandating the USPS to prepay pensions is a good thing. The postal service is an industry that is, by definition, in secular decline (barring unusual events like COVID19) because of the Internet. Congress recognized this in 2006 and thus required USPS to prepare over 10 years to get its pensions ready, because there's no reason to believe that future revenue (and future employee-count growth) is going to sustain pensions for retirees otherwise.
This is what has been happening to USPS, folks:
1. Because of COVID19, flats volume has collapsed, while package volume has skyrocketed. Flats sorting machines can do absolutely nothing for packages for reasons that are left up to the reader, so USPS has been shutting them down and moving them out of processing facilities in favor of package sorting.
2. Because USPS is losing lots of money overall (higher package volume doesn't make up for the collapse in flats volume)[1], it has been cutting back on overtime, just like any other employer would.
3. People hear about 1 and 2, hear about/experience packages being delivered more slowly, and think that this surely means that "the Trump administration is trying to sabotage the post office to suppress voting!!!!". They do this without thinking about it at all:
3a. As stated, flats volume has collapsed, so there is still a lot of excess capacity.
3b. Even if every single voter were to vote by mail only, this would mean at most two additional flat pieces per voter (one ballot to the voter, and one ballot sent back). Think about how much mail (not packages, mail) you already receive daily on average. Do you really think two additional pieces would collapse the system? Of course not, any more than the USPS collapses every January when the IRS and every single employer, bank, and other financial institution sends out tax-related documents. (The USPS hires seasonal help in December for packages, not for Christmas cards.)
3c. If this really were a sinister Trump administration voter-suppression scheme, it's a pretty weak one that can be defeated by dropping ballots off in person, and/or voting in person.
4. An actual serious issue is states and counties that aren't like Oregon (which has been 100% vote by mail for two decades) trying to convert to vote by mail without preparation. Think of how much mail your home receives for the previous tenant (and the one before that, and the one before that). Think of this all having to be done by early October, to give voters about a month to receive and return ballots. This is what the administration has been pointing out, something rarely heard amidst the nonsense about mail-vote suppression.
[1] Congress mandating the USPS to prepay pensions is a good thing. The postal service is an industry that is, by definition, in secular decline (barring unusual events like COVID19) because of the Internet. Congress recognized this in 2006 and thus required USPS to prepare over 10 years to get its pensions ready, because there's no reason to believe that future revenue (and future employee-count growth) is going to sustain pensions for retirees otherwise.
The DMV loses money.
The FDA loses money.
The FCC loses money.
These are public institutions, not for profit enterprises. They're funded partially by fees and usually largely by congressional appropriations.
You beg the question by beginning by comparing the USPS to other carriers. It's one of the few public institutions required by the constitution! Even the Defense Department doesn't get that privilege, and it loses hundreds of billions a year and doesn't have the same requirement to fund pensions for employees who haven't been born yet.
Lastly, delaying flats and prioritizing packages during a situation when many, perhaps most people will vote by mail due to a public health crisis is if not malicious, dangerously ignorant of the societal implications.
Yes, the USPS can handle the volume. But for the sake of our elections, and based on issues we may have with counting ballots, postmark and receipt date laws that vary by state, can we agree as a bipartisan issue that mail delivery now, of all times, shouldn't be compromised?
The FDA loses money.
The FCC loses money.
These are public institutions, not for profit enterprises. They're funded partially by fees and usually largely by congressional appropriations.
You beg the question by beginning by comparing the USPS to other carriers. It's one of the few public institutions required by the constitution! Even the Defense Department doesn't get that privilege, and it loses hundreds of billions a year and doesn't have the same requirement to fund pensions for employees who haven't been born yet.
Lastly, delaying flats and prioritizing packages during a situation when many, perhaps most people will vote by mail due to a public health crisis is if not malicious, dangerously ignorant of the societal implications.
Yes, the USPS can handle the volume. But for the sake of our elections, and based on issues we may have with counting ballots, postmark and receipt date laws that vary by state, can we agree as a bipartisan issue that mail delivery now, of all times, shouldn't be compromised?
But should the USPS be a public institution? Many countries have opted to privatize their postal services, admittedly with varying results, but with quite a few successes as well: you may have heard the package division of what was once Deutsche Bundespost, now known worldwide as DHL.
I do agree that right now is not a great time for radical changes though!
I do agree that right now is not a great time for radical changes though!
Deutsche Post bought DHL from 1998 through 2002.
The problem with comparing to a lot of other countries, is that the US really has remote locations.
In those situations, their "competitors" largely just drop off their packages to USPS and let them handle the costly trip.
In those situations, their "competitors" largely just drop off their packages to USPS and let them handle the costly trip.
https://www.ups.com/media/en/terms_service_gnd_pr.pdf
https://www.uspis.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/USPIS-FAQs....
TLDR is, USPS needs a warrant to open first class mail. Private carriers may be able to open with impunity. Who do you want handling your mail-in ballot?
TLDR is, USPS needs a warrant to open first class mail. Private carriers may be able to open with impunity. Who do you want handling your mail-in ballot?
Tampering with ballots will still be illegal, even if the company is private.
That's also a bit of weird argument, since we're right now seeing how the USPS can easily be bent by political pressure precisely because it is a govt institution and presidents already get to appoint their cronies to run it.
That's also a bit of weird argument, since we're right now seeing how the USPS can easily be bent by political pressure precisely because it is a govt institution and presidents already get to appoint their cronies to run it.
I don't think the Constitution requires the federal government to establish a postal service. It only grants them the power to do it.
Minor correction that does not detract from your point:
DMV actually nets out a surplus in most states given the fees it collects.
When states cut its operating budget, it's because they're looking across the budget for ways to cut costs. This is only irrational from a budgetary, as opposed to service delivery, POV if the cuts somehow undermine revenue collection, like reducing the number of IRS auditors.
DMV actually nets out a surplus in most states given the fees it collects.
When states cut its operating budget, it's because they're looking across the budget for ways to cut costs. This is only irrational from a budgetary, as opposed to service delivery, POV if the cuts somehow undermine revenue collection, like reducing the number of IRS auditors.
>You beg the question by beginning by comparing the USPS to other carriers.
I at no point made a comparison between the USPS and any other carrier.
>It's one of the few public institutions required by the constitution!
No. Article I merely authorizes the federal government to establish post offices.
>Even the Defense Department doesn't get that privilege
On the contrary, the same Article I repeatedly discusses the federal government's warmaking powers on land and sea.
>and it loses hundreds of billions a year and doesn't have the same requirement to fund pensions for employees who haven't been born yet.
How do you define "losing money" for the Department of Defense? Obviously it is not a money-making enterprise. That is, there is no way to measure its success or failure on a financial basis. Such a thing is possible with the USPS.
I didn't say that the USPS has to make money. But it is possible to measure its financial performance in a way that isn't possible with most other government agencies, including DoD.
>Lastly, delaying flats and prioritizing packages during a situation when many, perhaps most people will vote by mail due to a public health crisis is if not malicious, dangerously ignorant of the societal implications.
Nice speech; too bad I said nothing of the sort. As I said, there is a lot of slack in non-package processing capability because of the massive COVID19-related decline in non-package volume. The USPS trying to rearrange logistics and personnel accordingly, while avoiding overtime because of the money-losing issue, is what caused the nonsense the past few weeks (which, thankfully, seems to be dying down as people look into the issue and realize said nonsense).
I at no point made a comparison between the USPS and any other carrier.
>It's one of the few public institutions required by the constitution!
No. Article I merely authorizes the federal government to establish post offices.
>Even the Defense Department doesn't get that privilege
On the contrary, the same Article I repeatedly discusses the federal government's warmaking powers on land and sea.
>and it loses hundreds of billions a year and doesn't have the same requirement to fund pensions for employees who haven't been born yet.
How do you define "losing money" for the Department of Defense? Obviously it is not a money-making enterprise. That is, there is no way to measure its success or failure on a financial basis. Such a thing is possible with the USPS.
I didn't say that the USPS has to make money. But it is possible to measure its financial performance in a way that isn't possible with most other government agencies, including DoD.
>Lastly, delaying flats and prioritizing packages during a situation when many, perhaps most people will vote by mail due to a public health crisis is if not malicious, dangerously ignorant of the societal implications.
Nice speech; too bad I said nothing of the sort. As I said, there is a lot of slack in non-package processing capability because of the massive COVID19-related decline in non-package volume. The USPS trying to rearrange logistics and personnel accordingly, while avoiding overtime because of the money-losing issue, is what caused the nonsense the past few weeks (which, thankfully, seems to be dying down as people look into the issue and realize said nonsense).
DeJoy did recently concede that the USPS will give ballots absolute priority over other mail, so in theory, it will be everything else that gets delayed.
Previously DeJoy had threatened that states which don't pay for first class postage would be delivered slower.
Previously DeJoy had threatened that states which don't pay for first class postage would be delivered slower.
[deleted]
I have been wondering about this argument about the decline. Check out these numbers:
https://facts.usps.com/table-facts/
From 2010 to 2019:
-Overall annual operating revenue has increased from $67.1B to $71.1B
-First-class letters has dropped from 77.6B to 54.9B
-Shipping/package volume has grown from 3.3B to 6.2B
-Marketing mail has dropped from 81.8B to 75.7B
I would not call a 29% drop on first-class mail over a 10-year period with a 100% growth in packages a "collapse."
I wonder how this stacks up in comparison to FedEx and UPS who are surely seeing a drop in letters/flats through their system. It would be interesting to track down the same numbers and compare.
People assume UPS can deliver letter-sized envelopes just as well as the USPS but they simply can't. I'm working on https://nanagram.co and up until recently we used UPS. The average delivery was 7-9 days at best with poor tracking. I switched everything over to the USPS in July and even with all the pandemic the post office is more reliable than UPS and also a little cheaper. We've been seeing deliveries in 2-4 days and before the pandemic 1-3 days.
From 2010 to 2019:
-Overall annual operating revenue has increased from $67.1B to $71.1B
-First-class letters has dropped from 77.6B to 54.9B
-Shipping/package volume has grown from 3.3B to 6.2B
-Marketing mail has dropped from 81.8B to 75.7B
I would not call a 29% drop on first-class mail over a 10-year period with a 100% growth in packages a "collapse."
I wonder how this stacks up in comparison to FedEx and UPS who are surely seeing a drop in letters/flats through their system. It would be interesting to track down the same numbers and compare.
People assume UPS can deliver letter-sized envelopes just as well as the USPS but they simply can't. I'm working on https://nanagram.co and up until recently we used UPS. The average delivery was 7-9 days at best with poor tracking. I switched everything over to the USPS in July and even with all the pandemic the post office is more reliable than UPS and also a little cheaper. We've been seeing deliveries in 2-4 days and before the pandemic 1-3 days.
While what little you highlight are directionally correct, both the backstory and current debate are far more interesting and nuanced. This recent episode of Vox's The Weeds is a really good summary.
WTF is happening with USPS [2020-08-18]
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtf-is-happening-with-...
https://overcast.fm/+FOORtkRGM
(Long concerned with USPS wrt postal ballots, I learned quite a bit.)
WTF is happening with USPS [2020-08-18]
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtf-is-happening-with-...
https://overcast.fm/+FOORtkRGM
(Long concerned with USPS wrt postal ballots, I learned quite a bit.)
Got solid text-based summaries to share?
That'd be great. Sorry! Some of the podcast clients do correctly render the show notes.
Letters and ballots are not flats. Flats are magazines, catalogues and larger mail pieces.
USPS has three categories of mail: letters, flats (flat items too large to be considered letters), and packages.
https://pe.usps.com/text/dmm300/101.htm
If you can't even get beyond two sentences without a factual inaccuracy, it does cast some doubt on whether anything else you wrote was accurate.
USPS has three categories of mail: letters, flats (flat items too large to be considered letters), and packages.
https://pe.usps.com/text/dmm300/101.htm
If you can't even get beyond two sentences without a factual inaccuracy, it does cast some doubt on whether anything else you wrote was accurate.
I admit to being inexact, but my larger point remains: Shippo's analysis (and most of the anecdotal reports about "slow mail") is regarding "parcels". (If you're going to be sneeringly pedantic, the USPS term is "parcels" and not, as you claim, "packages"; the word appears in USPS descriptions of levels of service, like "flat rate package" and "first class package", but is not a category like "letters", "flats", and "parcels").
To put another way, "flats" are larger "letters" and can be processed in similar ways, because both are bendable, and thus machine-sortable in a way that "parcels" are not. This is also why letters, regardless of height/weight, that exceed a certain thickness automatically become parcels, because they are no longer bendable.
To put another way, "flats" are larger "letters" and can be processed in similar ways, because both are bendable, and thus machine-sortable in a way that "parcels" are not. This is also why letters, regardless of height/weight, that exceed a certain thickness automatically become parcels, because they are no longer bendable.
Not sure why your comment appears to be getting down-voted / flagged.
It's dead on the money, beyond the minor trivialisation of "2 papers". It's 2 papers... per person. Still well within their capacity though, considering the sheer amount of other mail moved normally.
It's dead on the money, beyond the minor trivialisation of "2 papers". It's 2 papers... per person. Still well within their capacity though, considering the sheer amount of other mail moved normally.
While I have no knowledge to critic your analysis, I just one to answer to one point:
> 3. People hear about 1 and 2, hear about/experience packages being delivered more slowly, and think that this surely means that "the Trump administration is trying to sabotage the post office to suppress voting!!!!".
I think this is a bit unfair. D. J. Trump has repeatability express his hatred for mail-in voting, and him, and his administration, has expressed several time that they could/would gut the USPS to prevent mail-in voting.
So while your analysis might be true, and the current state of the USPS has nothing to do with the current administration, it is unfair to present the current fear of voter suppressions as unreasonable.
> 3. People hear about 1 and 2, hear about/experience packages being delivered more slowly, and think that this surely means that "the Trump administration is trying to sabotage the post office to suppress voting!!!!".
I think this is a bit unfair. D. J. Trump has repeatability express his hatred for mail-in voting, and him, and his administration, has expressed several time that they could/would gut the USPS to prevent mail-in voting.
So while your analysis might be true, and the current state of the USPS has nothing to do with the current administration, it is unfair to present the current fear of voter suppressions as unreasonable.
That would be nice, if the reason was slow packages so it would correlate with The problem at hand.
People are mentioning serious delays in mails, barely about packages.
People are mentioning serious delays in mails, barely about packages.
TL;DR: DeJoy's changes appear to have made USPS slightly slower (0.1-0.5 days) in some places, but much less than the delta caused by a holiday like July 4th (see note buried at the very end).
Yes, but it should be noted that average delivery times may hide the severity of the problem. At least from anecdotal information, it sounds like some letters are arriving as usual and a smaller subset are severity delayed.
I think the median and mode delivery times would be helpful numbers rather than just mean.
I think the median and mode delivery times would be helpful numbers rather than just mean.
But they _are_ having a decidedly negative effect on efficiency, and they’re still destroying machines when they said they were going to pause all changes. We shouldn’t just wait for it to get worse.
This is only data for a specific subset of USPS shipments, it doesn't tell us anything about, for a few examples of important categories:
* Prescription refills
* Mail to/from overseas soldiers
* Bills and bill payments
* Regular letters
Those other categories could be much worse, or could be better than Shippos' data here. Most of the reporting out there claims that other categories (like prescriptions) are severely degraded.
* Prescription refills
* Mail to/from overseas soldiers
* Bills and bill payments
* Regular letters
Those other categories could be much worse, or could be better than Shippos' data here. Most of the reporting out there claims that other categories (like prescriptions) are severely degraded.
The data does show getting a parcel from California to most points in the east will have up to a 40% chance of delay. It seems their internal routes are getting backed up and causing a ripple effect.
Is my summary inaccurate? The article is very careful not to extend any political slant to its data and findings, please extend me the same courtesy. (I'm not even American.)
It is inaccurate.
You say "slightly slower". The metrics behind the delays are much longer and your numbers only seem to include time in transit.
Second reason your summary is inaccurate: DeJoy's changes are rolled out in small pockets of the country thus far. The article seems to be indiscriminate from where those changes took place. The averages here are hence better than from those places where the changes have done the most damage.
You say "slightly slower". The metrics behind the delays are much longer and your numbers only seem to include time in transit.
Second reason your summary is inaccurate: DeJoy's changes are rolled out in small pockets of the country thus far. The article seems to be indiscriminate from where those changes took place. The averages here are hence better than from those places where the changes have done the most damage.
I'm not sure how this article suggests that DeJoy's changes have anything to do with USPS speeds. It does, however, show delays increasing.
Where are you getting this causation from?
Where are you getting this causation from?