Germany has three months to save itself from a winter gas crisis(bloomberg.com)
bloomberg.com
Germany has three months to save itself from a winter gas crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-01/germany-heading-to-gas-emergency-with-russia-keeping-nord-stream-flows-reduced
192 comments
In May 2022, Chinese officials ordered government agencies and state-backed companies to remove personal computers produced by American corporations and replace them with equipment from domestic companies.
source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-06/china-ord...
source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-06/china-ord...
That's not what I mean. Half the world's semi conductors are made at the TSMC complex in Taiwan. If China invaded, we would lose access to those.
If china invaded there’s a good chance china would lose access to them too, as they would be destroyed
Edit: they being the TSMC
Edit: they being the TSMC
Well, a good attempt was made with the TPP.
But I think the difference is that China is more of a potential threat while Russia has long been a malicious actor. Germany should have known better and had several options they actively turned down (shuttering Nuclear plants for example).
But I think the difference is that China is more of a potential threat while Russia has long been a malicious actor. Germany should have known better and had several options they actively turned down (shuttering Nuclear plants for example).
I would not call the TPP a good attempt. While perhaps the intent was good, the attempt was terrible. The proposed ideas were so bad that neither presidential candidate in the 2016 election wanted anything to do with it. And the new president has not joined the successor (CPTPP)
Half of Germany was that "Russia" you forget.
Sanctions will always be a two-sided sword. But that doesn't mean you should not enact them, even if they hurt.
It's just about the only action short of war that might cause a party to think twice, though, in practice it tends to harm the populations much more than it ever does the leaders (who in fact may find a boost from them).
It's a blunt and imprecise tool but it's what's in the tool drawer and there isn't much else in there other than war.
It's just about the only action short of war that might cause a party to think twice, though, in practice it tends to harm the populations much more than it ever does the leaders (who in fact may find a boost from them).
It's a blunt and imprecise tool but it's what's in the tool drawer and there isn't much else in there other than war.
>"It's easy to point at Germany and tell them they have only themselves to blame, for becoming so dependent on Russian gas"
They were stupid to shutdown their nuclear stations. That is for sure.
>"magine a scenario where China invades Taiwan. Besides losing access to about half the world's production of semi conductors, would we even be able to put sanctions on China without causing complete chaos here? "
The US and the rest of the Western world wanted cheap manufacturing. They got what they wanted. They've lifted whole bunch of Asian people out of poverty, made China a superpower, got some Western haves to get insanely rich and at the same time it allowed poor Joes Schmoes still enjoy a bit better life. It was good while it lasted. Now it seems that the love affair comes apart.
They were stupid to shutdown their nuclear stations. That is for sure.
>"magine a scenario where China invades Taiwan. Besides losing access to about half the world's production of semi conductors, would we even be able to put sanctions on China without causing complete chaos here? "
The US and the rest of the Western world wanted cheap manufacturing. They got what they wanted. They've lifted whole bunch of Asian people out of poverty, made China a superpower, got some Western haves to get insanely rich and at the same time it allowed poor Joes Schmoes still enjoy a bit better life. It was good while it lasted. Now it seems that the love affair comes apart.
Spend decades furthering their own geopolitical goals. Now it might be turn for someone else.
Yes that's true, but for political reasons we would have to impose those sanctions and accept the chaos. Fortunately the mainstream political establishment has now recognized China as a real threat, and steps are being taken to decouple strategic industries. Hopefully some significant progress will be made before China builds up enough amphibious lift capacity to effect an invasion of Taiwan. At this point it's a race.
Taiwan is lost in terms of defending it from any Chinese invasion. The US has been on the other end of proxy wars with China (Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea) and has not managed to win one of them, and Ukraine is a big mess for everyone involved, and the US will not be deeply involved in the future. Hong Kong is a good example of the limitations of defending Taiwan.
Being an island, Taiwan is far more defensible than Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea, or Ukraine. Prevailing weather conditions mean that an invasion is only even possible for a few months every year, and local geography means there are only a handful of beaches and ports where an amphibious invasion force could attempt to come ashore. China could wreck Taiwan using missiles and air strikes, but China still lacks the airborne and amphibious lift that would be necessary for a successful invasion. They are building rapidly, and so that situation will probably change in a few years. But even then, the Chinese leadership would have to be willing to accept horrific losses while crossing the strait and establishing a secure beachhead.
You're standing on many legs there: no comparison between the Asia of Taiwan and your other examples. Korea was very much a draw, and China has demonstrated complete inability to make the North into anything ressembling success. Hong Kong is on the Mainland. Taiwan will be able to defend itself "on-its-own" just like Ukraine os doing. And if/when conquered will be a worthless husk.
>Taiwan will be able to defend itself "on-its-own" just like Ukraine os doing.
Except Ukraine isn't defending itself. US/NATO is defending Ukraine with billions of dollars in weapons and priceless intelligence.
Except Ukraine isn't defending itself. US/NATO is defending Ukraine with billions of dollars in weapons and priceless intelligence.
One of the reasons I LOVE home solar and BEVs. It makes us so much more resilient to outages and disasters and disruptions on the critical aspects of energy, heating/cooling, and transportation.
How much would germany kill to have a robust home solar installation right now? Even if you reduce dependence buy 20-30% from previous levels, that opens options for other sourcing.
And, uh, how about people bundle up and live in chillier houses? Christ they don't even really go under freezing that much. Sleep under thicker blankets.
There's other options: crash programs for insulation. wood stoves.
But I agree, there absolutely should be a minimum local sourcing for most products. We certainly do it for agriculture effectively with trade barriers and other regulation.
These ultra-extended supply lines are outgrowths of monopoly and cartel economics which dominate our markets rather than a robust amount of competition (which would enable options as well as alternate sourcing). We need a lot more competition and antitrust enforcement. The amount of political power handed to both state powers and the monopoly companies that are their partners is outlandish and dangerous.
How much would germany kill to have a robust home solar installation right now? Even if you reduce dependence buy 20-30% from previous levels, that opens options for other sourcing.
And, uh, how about people bundle up and live in chillier houses? Christ they don't even really go under freezing that much. Sleep under thicker blankets.
There's other options: crash programs for insulation. wood stoves.
But I agree, there absolutely should be a minimum local sourcing for most products. We certainly do it for agriculture effectively with trade barriers and other regulation.
These ultra-extended supply lines are outgrowths of monopoly and cartel economics which dominate our markets rather than a robust amount of competition (which would enable options as well as alternate sourcing). We need a lot more competition and antitrust enforcement. The amount of political power handed to both state powers and the monopoly companies that are their partners is outlandish and dangerous.
Despite what the sibling says which is also true, especially in winter, Germany has a lot of solar in comparison to ten years ago and depending on what you do otherwise for heating building a house requires solar (it seems a lot of people use it for hot water instead of electricity) installations. Being Germany there's lots of rules which I don't know in detail since I don't live there. But here's a quick Google result for some of it: https://www.nibe.eu/de-de/support/artikel/solaranlage#pflich...
Also a lot of landlords (corporate ones) have already announced that they will only supply heating up to 20C this winter. There's a lot of discussion about that going around i.e. people complaining about that.
Also a lot of landlords (corporate ones) have already announced that they will only supply heating up to 20C this winter. There's a lot of discussion about that going around i.e. people complaining about that.
> How much would germany kill to have a robust home solar installation right now?
Maybe not much killing, since solar requires consistent sunlight, which is not as prevalent in Germany.
Maybe not much killing, since solar requires consistent sunlight, which is not as prevalent in Germany.
The implication is that it's somehow better to be "self reliant" but that is also basically impossible.
The implication is that it's better to not be reliant on an adversary. Some level of reliance on reliable allies is fine.
But that would be a major challenge. Virtually all of the Asian continent save for Japan and Korea (who are reliant on the US for military purposes) in some way kept neutral and/or allied with Russia.
Only North Korea, Syria, Eritrea and Belarus decided to vote against resolution condemning Russian invasion on Ukraine.
Russia has no allies. Even China is reluctant to take over what remains from Russian market abandoned by Western companies.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1499072011729096705
Russia has no allies. Even China is reluctant to take over what remains from Russian market abandoned by Western companies.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1499072011729096705
It's more about being reliant on one source under the control of a potential rival.
Germany does not only "have itself to blame" - the gas relationship dates back to the Soviet Union and was supposed to work the other way around. The way Germany saw it, it was the Soviet Union that would become technologically and economically dependent on the West. It was a good plan.
After the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union the ex-KGB people knew that this was like the one deal that could make a fortune and give them access to power. Germany was be eager to keep up their end of the deal. What Germans didn't understand is that the people on the other side of the table were not the old communist politicians but corrupt gangsters.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the entire West has only itself to blame in the way it underestimated Putin's strategic prowess and brutality. Influence is a two way road and all that.
I think that you are correct in seeing the similarities to the US-China relationship, but I don't think it's that simple. For one China isn't stupid. They will continue to do what they can to exert power in this relationship. But China is in an advantageous position right now, so they don't need to be invading anyone. What's more, the people in charge in China aren't gangsters, they're a political party with an actual ideology. That makes a big difference because these kinds of people usually aren't very eager to handle wars. What's more likely in the coming years are proxy wars and competing ambitious economic infrastructure development plans. But then again, all plans have a way of backfiring in one way or another, sooner or later so we will just have to wait and see.
After the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union the ex-KGB people knew that this was like the one deal that could make a fortune and give them access to power. Germany was be eager to keep up their end of the deal. What Germans didn't understand is that the people on the other side of the table were not the old communist politicians but corrupt gangsters.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the entire West has only itself to blame in the way it underestimated Putin's strategic prowess and brutality. Influence is a two way road and all that.
I think that you are correct in seeing the similarities to the US-China relationship, but I don't think it's that simple. For one China isn't stupid. They will continue to do what they can to exert power in this relationship. But China is in an advantageous position right now, so they don't need to be invading anyone. What's more, the people in charge in China aren't gangsters, they're a political party with an actual ideology. That makes a big difference because these kinds of people usually aren't very eager to handle wars. What's more likely in the coming years are proxy wars and competing ambitious economic infrastructure development plans. But then again, all plans have a way of backfiring in one way or another, sooner or later so we will just have to wait and see.
It was just an example, I don't have any special insight into the China-Taiwan situation. Maybe the conflict would be over a TV show, or a sports match, who knows. It just occurs to me that if there's a situation where we cut China off, or China cuts us off, we would be in the situation Germany is in now.
China would stand to lose a lot of money in that situation, but our economy would be severely disrupted as well. Russia is showing that for a totalitarian regime, losing a lot of money may not necessarily be a complete show stopper. They could make that choice and decide it's worth it, if they don't have to worry about the polls and are able to shape the narrative their own population gets to see.
China would stand to lose a lot of money in that situation, but our economy would be severely disrupted as well. Russia is showing that for a totalitarian regime, losing a lot of money may not necessarily be a complete show stopper. They could make that choice and decide it's worth it, if they don't have to worry about the polls and are able to shape the narrative their own population gets to see.
Putin and his circle endorse a culture of violence. They have stayed in power by keeping Russians in a state of terror. If anything they find it much easier to maintain their grip on power in this state of war and conflict, than in a state of peace. These people are actual gangsters - in their worldview they should be waging some sort of brutal war, otherwise who is going to be afraid of them at home?
I think the fears you have assume that the people in power in China have this villainous desire for violence just for it's own sake. But we're talking about the communist party and career politicians here. China has a 10+ year head start with their belt and road initiative. This is where they have an upper hand - it would be stupid to switch to military confrontation.
I think the fears you have assume that the people in power in China have this villainous desire for violence just for it's own sake. But we're talking about the communist party and career politicians here. China has a 10+ year head start with their belt and road initiative. This is where they have an upper hand - it would be stupid to switch to military confrontation.
>the gas relationship dates back to the Soviet Union and was supposed to work the other way around.
You mean like the last time?
German–Soviet Trade and Credit Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_Credit_A...
"expectation of eventual territorial expansion to the Baltic countries, Finland and Poland, with the approval of either the Western powers or Germany" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin's_speech_of_19_August_1...
"In the event of a territorial and political rearrangement of the areas belonging to the Polish state the spheres of influence of Germany and the U.S.S.R. shall be bounded approximately by the line of the rivers Narew, Vistula, and San."
"With regard to Southeastern Europe attention is called by the Soviet side to its interest in Bessarabia (Moldova & Ukraine). The German side declares its complete political disinterestedness in these areas."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany%E2%80%93Soviet_Union_r...
You mean like the last time?
German–Soviet Trade and Credit Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_Credit_A...
"expectation of eventual territorial expansion to the Baltic countries, Finland and Poland, with the approval of either the Western powers or Germany" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin's_speech_of_19_August_1...
"In the event of a territorial and political rearrangement of the areas belonging to the Polish state the spheres of influence of Germany and the U.S.S.R. shall be bounded approximately by the line of the rivers Narew, Vistula, and San."
"With regard to Southeastern Europe attention is called by the Soviet side to its interest in Bessarabia (Moldova & Ukraine). The German side declares its complete political disinterestedness in these areas."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany%E2%80%93Soviet_Union_r...
Yes.
The Tariffs from 2017 remain in place on some cheap goods from China.
The Chips Act passed last week.
If the proposed legislation for energy / climate passes, it will target subsidizing domestic solar panels + cars.
The Tariffs from 2017 remain in place on some cheap goods from China.
The Chips Act passed last week.
If the proposed legislation for energy / climate passes, it will target subsidizing domestic solar panels + cars.
The Global economy has stood for ~40-60 years.
Local/Regional economies have existed since the dawn of agriculture.
It is reasonable to assume we will regress towards the mean at some point
Local/Regional economies have existed since the dawn of agriculture.
It is reasonable to assume we will regress towards the mean at some point
There has been supra regional integration (not just marginal - noticeably influencing domestic economies and politics too) since the time Roman merchants plied the Indian sea around the first century CE. I recommend reading "Boundless Sea" from Abulafia for more insight. Autocracies starve themselves to death.
The Greeks Empire was all the way to the northern borders of India. Europe and Asia have been trading for millenia along the Silk Route through India and the Indian Ocean. In fact Europe was losing money to Asia until the formation of British India, and the political turmoil in later British India was what led the UK to turn their attention to exporting tea to Boston...
The Greek (Macedonian) conquests in Asia were just a chapter in this process. Sumerians traded with India back in 2000 bce. The importance of overland silk road seems to have been overplayed by a romantic approach to late antiquity and medieval history. The volumes and values traded over sea far overshadow what trickled down via land connections where things filtered through between large regional emporia more then being traded directly. Also thesaurisation of bullion metal is a big issue all over the place not just in the relationship between Europe and China. I'd argue that the issue becomes even more prominent when we see the role of opium trade and trafficking as a way to offset the silver deficit Europe had with China in the 19th century.
I am not quite sure what that China comment is in reply to, but India was a major (if not bigger) destination for bullion in the ancient world, and the West had a deficit with India for most of history including the early years of the British Empire. India was probably the biggest trading partner for Europe in the ancient world, larger than China.
https://www.thehindu.com/features/magazine/all-the-worlds-go...
https://www.thehindu.com/features/magazine/all-the-worlds-go...
>In fact Europe was losing money to Asia
Thank you for the article, very interesting read! China absorbed a lot of precious metals from Europe and elsewhere (silver more then gold as was the case with India historically). The British Empire used military force first in India and later in China, motivated in part by the precious metal deficit. And as consequent as the Raj was in the process, I mentioned China to add depth and nuance to the narrative and to illustrate that the precious metal outflow was by no means stopped by the British administration of India.
Thank you for the article, very interesting read! China absorbed a lot of precious metals from Europe and elsewhere (silver more then gold as was the case with India historically). The British Empire used military force first in India and later in China, motivated in part by the precious metal deficit. And as consequent as the Raj was in the process, I mentioned China to add depth and nuance to the narrative and to illustrate that the precious metal outflow was by no means stopped by the British administration of India.
Unless people know the price and understand it first hand that global, peaceful cooperation is far superior to domestic production and petty fights.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der
Former PM Schröder is nearly solely responsible for hooking Germany on cheap Russian oil. Just look at who he works for now — he’s effectively a Russian oligarch at this point and defended Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine.
Former PM Schröder is nearly solely responsible for hooking Germany on cheap Russian oil. Just look at who he works for now — he’s effectively a Russian oligarch at this point and defended Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine.
We really should have thought twice in Europe when MH17 was shot down and Russia took Crimea.
Instead we nodded slightly in disappointment and happily continued making ourselves dependent on Russian gas.
Instead we nodded slightly in disappointment and happily continued making ourselves dependent on Russian gas.
It's been striking how little discussion there is of this in /r/europe and /r/germany. (The latter has pinned a megathread for the topic, the classic way of killing discussion.) /r/de is slightly better, if only because of the absence of the constant "I don't know German but want to move to Germany and get a job" posts.
I don't mean to say that there's been nothing, along the lines of the 100% censorship that happened at /r/news the day of the 2016 Orlando mass shooter. There has been some. But there is far, far, far less. Just last moth we had
* a German minister stating that becoming dependent on Russian gas was a "grievous mistake", and that his country is begging for turbines from Canada "with a heavy heart"
* His government stating that entire industries might "collapse"
* Rationing of gas announced
* Local municipalities planning warm buildings that those without heat in their homes can visit during the winter
This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years. It is an existential threat to the German (and, thus, European) economy and nation. Any other topic half as serious would occupy far more of these subreddits' front pages. And it is entirely self-inflicted.
I don't mean to say that there's been nothing, along the lines of the 100% censorship that happened at /r/news the day of the 2016 Orlando mass shooter. There has been some. But there is far, far, far less. Just last moth we had
* a German minister stating that becoming dependent on Russian gas was a "grievous mistake", and that his country is begging for turbines from Canada "with a heavy heart"
* His government stating that entire industries might "collapse"
* Rationing of gas announced
* Local municipalities planning warm buildings that those without heat in their homes can visit during the winter
This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years. It is an existential threat to the German (and, thus, European) economy and nation. Any other topic half as serious would occupy far more of these subreddits' front pages. And it is entirely self-inflicted.
> This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years
Detected the West German. Ever considered what happened in the East in the 1990s? 25 percent unemployment? Try that for a crisis, than we can talk again.
Detected the West German. Ever considered what happened in the East in the 1990s? 25 percent unemployment? Try that for a crisis, than we can talk again.
Energy is all over the news since April in Germany. Everything that could be discussed was discussed. At one point a topic has been fully explored. What else is there to discuss?
Look at how many others here are saying that it will be "just a recession" in which Germans can "just wear a sweater", as opposed to people facing home heating bills rising 5-10X and complete shutdown of many factories from the lack of both power and feedstock.
Germany will be fine but it will be really expensive.
> This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years. It is an existential threat to the German (and, thus, European) economy and nation. Any other topic half as serious would occupy far more of these subreddits' front pages. And it is entirely self-inflicted.
Um... Berlin wall?
Um... Berlin wall?
There seems to be a trend of covering up and looking the other way on many major political issues right now in the US. I presume it is a different story in Germany itself.
I fully agree.
The worst thing is that people seem not to realize the long-term effect. Everyone is talking about the winter.
Cheap energy is NOT coming back though. It is over. The window of opportunity for NS2 is also closing.
Germany has the choice to either do what Putin wants and survive or hold on to its values and lose its competitive advantage.
The worst thing is that people seem not to realize the long-term effect. Everyone is talking about the winter.
Cheap energy is NOT coming back though. It is over. The window of opportunity for NS2 is also closing.
Germany has the choice to either do what Putin wants and survive or hold on to its values and lose its competitive advantage.
SPD tried very hard doing what Putin wants.
"On February 27th, the German arms industry gave Chancellor Olaf Scholz a 48 page list of military equipment that they could send to Ukraine. Scholz waited until today to forward it to the Ukrainians but his office only sent the Ukrainians half the document)"
"While Ukraine was offered Marder IFV, Boxer APC and even Leopard-2 MBT as well as Panzerhaubitze 2000 by German companies, it is not allowed to buy any of these systems in Germany"
1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons.
2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine.
3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.
4) Germany's defense industry leaks the list to Ukraine's ambassador.
5) Scholz says that the weapons on the list don't work.
6) The defense industry denies this and leaks the list to the press.
7) Scholz states Ukrainians can't master the weapons in the available time.
8) German defense experts tell the German press that Ukrainians can master the weapons in 2-3 weeks.
9) Scholz says the weapons are needed by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer.
10) NATO officials and German generals deny this.
11) Scholz says no other NATO/EU ally is delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine.
12) The US, UK, Australia, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Romania, Netherlands, etc. publish the lists of heavy weapon they deliver to Ukraine.
13) Under pressure Scholz announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military.
14) German parliamentarians find out that it's really just €1 billion, which won't be available for another 2-3 months, and then Scholz can veto or delay indefinitely every item Ukraine wants to buy.
15) The US, France, Poland, Romania, Japan, the UK and Italy, plus the heads of EU and NATO spend an afternoon trying to talk sense into Scholz.
16) Scholz makes a statement and says Ukraine can have the €1 billion now and order whatever it wants from the list.
17) Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list before giving it to Ukraine and what remains on the list is just a fraction of the €1 billion.
18) Scholz claims that there is no ammunition anymore for the Leopard tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
19) Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Egypt, the US, Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, Egypt respectively France are saying the produce these ammo types.
20) Scholz says countries delivering armored vehicles to Ukraine will be attacked by russia with nuclear weapons.
21) The US, UK, Australia, France, Poland, Spain, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, Netherlands, Denmark all report they were not hit by nuclear weapons.
"On February 27th, the German arms industry gave Chancellor Olaf Scholz a 48 page list of military equipment that they could send to Ukraine. Scholz waited until today to forward it to the Ukrainians but his office only sent the Ukrainians half the document)"
"While Ukraine was offered Marder IFV, Boxer APC and even Leopard-2 MBT as well as Panzerhaubitze 2000 by German companies, it is not allowed to buy any of these systems in Germany"
1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons.
2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine.
3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.
4) Germany's defense industry leaks the list to Ukraine's ambassador.
5) Scholz says that the weapons on the list don't work.
6) The defense industry denies this and leaks the list to the press.
7) Scholz states Ukrainians can't master the weapons in the available time.
8) German defense experts tell the German press that Ukrainians can master the weapons in 2-3 weeks.
9) Scholz says the weapons are needed by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer.
10) NATO officials and German generals deny this.
11) Scholz says no other NATO/EU ally is delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine.
12) The US, UK, Australia, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Romania, Netherlands, etc. publish the lists of heavy weapon they deliver to Ukraine.
13) Under pressure Scholz announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military.
14) German parliamentarians find out that it's really just €1 billion, which won't be available for another 2-3 months, and then Scholz can veto or delay indefinitely every item Ukraine wants to buy.
15) The US, France, Poland, Romania, Japan, the UK and Italy, plus the heads of EU and NATO spend an afternoon trying to talk sense into Scholz.
16) Scholz makes a statement and says Ukraine can have the €1 billion now and order whatever it wants from the list.
17) Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list before giving it to Ukraine and what remains on the list is just a fraction of the €1 billion.
18) Scholz claims that there is no ammunition anymore for the Leopard tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
19) Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Egypt, the US, Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, Egypt respectively France are saying the produce these ammo types.
20) Scholz says countries delivering armored vehicles to Ukraine will be attacked by russia with nuclear weapons.
21) The US, UK, Australia, France, Poland, Spain, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, Netherlands, Denmark all report they were not hit by nuclear weapons.
88840-8855(1)
One thing that stands out to me is that 10 million (25%) of German households use heating oil.
The United States only has 5 million households that use heating oil. Why haven't they retrofit the houses in Germany (assuming they are older)?
The United States only has 5 million households that use heating oil. Why haven't they retrofit the houses in Germany (assuming they are older)?
We have to thank the stars on our knees that they were not yet retrofitted, as most would have been retrofitted with a gas boiler, making everything even worse.
My landlord replaced the heating oil boiler this (!) summer with a gas one. :( :(
My landlord replaced the heating oil boiler this (!) summer with a gas one. :( :(
What percent is using electric resistance heating? If those are replaced with heat pumps with a COP of 3 to 4, that could free up enough electricity for the oil furnaces to also be replaced with heat pumps that plug right into existing duct work. This might sufficiently reduce their need for heating oil to last this winter.
Of course, such quick acquisition and installation might be difficult or impossible, and purchasing and installing all those heat pumps won't be inexpensive, although it would save money over the long term. Perhaps the German government could provide financial grants or loans for those unable to afford it.
Of course, such quick acquisition and installation might be difficult or impossible, and purchasing and installing all those heat pumps won't be inexpensive, although it would save money over the long term. Perhaps the German government could provide financial grants or loans for those unable to afford it.
They already provide financial help for heat pumps, but the problem is that
a.) there are not enough skilled workers that know how to deploy these. in fact it was just published in the news that due to boomers going in pension the workforce in this area already reduced over 10% in the last years and projected to sink even more. b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable.
a.) there are not enough skilled workers that know how to deploy these. in fact it was just published in the news that due to boomers going in pension the workforce in this area already reduced over 10% in the last years and projected to sink even more. b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable.
> a.) there are not enough skilled workers that know how to deploy these. in fact it was just published in the news that due to boomers going in pension the workforce in this area already reduced over 10% in the last years and projected to sink even more.
If this were the national emergency that everyone claims it is, this problem could be fixed in weeks, if not months, by the government training people in the basics of getting heat pumps installed. It's not brain surgery, it doesn't need a decade of schooling.
> b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable.
That same argument could be used to say that most houses are not insulated well enough to make gas heating financially viable.
If this were the national emergency that everyone claims it is, this problem could be fixed in weeks, if not months, by the government training people in the basics of getting heat pumps installed. It's not brain surgery, it doesn't need a decade of schooling.
> b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable.
That same argument could be used to say that most houses are not insulated well enough to make gas heating financially viable.
> It's not brain surgery, it doesn't need a decade of schooling.
It's almost like that condescending attitude towards the trades is why so few young people are doing those apprenticeships anymore. That and the shit pay.
It's almost like that condescending attitude towards the trades is why so few young people are doing those apprenticeships anymore. That and the shit pay.
There's plenty of people going into trades, what there isn't is enough people doing a particular trade that can handle a massive demand spike caused by an acute political or economic crisis.
You're not going to solve that problem by making people feel warm and fuzzy about learning a trade that will only have that high level of demand for a few months, or a year, or even three years. You are going to solve that problem by treating it like the emergency that it is. But if you don't actually treat it like an emergency, it's not going to get solved.
The attitude I mean to project isn't one of condescension, it's one of 'just get the work done well enough to solve the short-term crisis.' When you're on a ship, and the ship's got a hole in the bottom, you're not going to get to shore if you start lamenting that you don't have a certified first-rate caulker on board. You may have to make do with having the third-rate one take a look at it.
You're not going to solve that problem by making people feel warm and fuzzy about learning a trade that will only have that high level of demand for a few months, or a year, or even three years. You are going to solve that problem by treating it like the emergency that it is. But if you don't actually treat it like an emergency, it's not going to get solved.
The attitude I mean to project isn't one of condescension, it's one of 'just get the work done well enough to solve the short-term crisis.' When you're on a ship, and the ship's got a hole in the bottom, you're not going to get to shore if you start lamenting that you don't have a certified first-rate caulker on board. You may have to make do with having the third-rate one take a look at it.
Currently, the situation is that even if you have enough installers available, there are no heatpumps to buy - one of the bigger suppliers [0] has basically run dry since at least march...
[0] https://www.rjtec-shop.eu/de/luft-wasser-wp/monoblock/
[0] https://www.rjtec-shop.eu/de/luft-wasser-wp/monoblock/
I suspected as much. Selling new heat pumps from vendors in other NATO countries probably wouldn't help much but it could match Germany's installation ability and would be of some help.
you are right about point b.) but only at the current gas prices, it was totally fine with cheap russian gas.
Perhaps temporarily bring in installers from other NATO countries to help.
Because they had a lot of cheap oil previosuly
Retrofitting costs money and lots of people don’t want to switch because oil is quite cheap.
[deleted]
I was sufficiently shocked by the US number that I looked it up. Apparently they're essentially all in the Northeast where I've lived which is why it's always seemed super-common.
It's going to be a cold winter for sure, but I'm hoping this will force Europe to get really, really serious about renewables.
It is hard to get any new project online in three months, but surely Europe will be really really serious about energy saving this winter, it might be a good idea to buy a few more pullovers..
As much as I support renewables, this is a very naive statement. Germany has been especially good at investing in renewables. They're not enough, especially not in the short or even medium term.
Yes and no. Germany was on a great track until the early 10s. There solar and wind installations peaked and then steeply declined, as a consequence of the actions of the same government which had hastened the exit from nuclear.
So yes, on the one side, Germany has a quite high quota in renewables in electricity production (>50%), but we fell quite behind what would have been possible and at the same time became more dependent on Russian gas. But there is hope for things to speed up again and make good progress in the next years.
> There solar and wind installations peaked and then steeply declined, as a consequence of the actions of the same government which had hastened the exit from nuclear.
The decline hasn't much to do with nuclear, but instead with the conservative government shafting the previous infrastructure projects and subsidies for wind and pv. It was so clearly visible in the stats that it got named after the politian responsible ("Altmaier-Knick").
https://www.spektrum.de/news/erneuerbare-energien-der-energi...
The decline hasn't much to do with nuclear, but instead with the conservative government shafting the previous infrastructure projects and subsidies for wind and pv. It was so clearly visible in the stats that it got named after the politian responsible ("Altmaier-Knick").
https://www.spektrum.de/news/erneuerbare-energien-der-energi...
Yes, I didn't want to say it had something to do with nuclear, you are right about the Altmaier-Knick :). I just found it especially odd that the same government which had set the final end date for nuclear would slow down the one real replacement for it.
why is efficiency never discussed in public?
ref: Nega-Watts
ref: Nega-Watts
That doesn't replace oil/gas boilers. You can have all of the solar and wind you want, and you'd still guzzle gas in the winter using oil boilers in most of the country.
The could use excess wind and solar electricity to power coal gasification plants to generate natural gas that they can then use in the winter, without having to retrofit any boilers. They can even make heating oil from coal:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gasification
They sure could, and may end up doing that but I'd bet it's going to be politically unpalatable.
Both retrofitting and coal gasification could probably be done in parallel.
Both retrofitting and coal gasification could probably be done in parallel.
It ain't gonna happen in three months, but if you have all of the solar and wind you want you can stockpile synthetic methane in the summer and burn it in the winter.
You need hydrogen to produce synthetic methane, and plants to produce it. The larges source of H2 globally is from you guessed it, natural gas. To get if from electrolysis, you need an electrolysis plant near your synthetic methane plant and both need to be near water because it's difficult and dangerous to store H2. All of that would take more than months. You could probably replace a large number of boilers in 3 months. Not enough to solve the problem, but enough to make a dent. Electric boilers, while less efficient than heat pumps, only cost around $700 each and are basically a 1 for 1 replacement for a gas boiler.
Serious about NUCLEAR
Which would solve the problem in about 20 years.
nuclear energy is so expensive, take the new plants in the US and france that are being built. 10-20 years in construction, 10x over costs. You can't really build a new nuclear plant in 1-2 years
Germany is in a unique position here, having recently shut down over a dozen nuclear plants. Three months is probably not enough to refuel, restaff and cut through the red tape, but it doesn't have to be decades.
You could take the serially produced reactors that are used in ships. If you pay enough you should get the next batch. If you push it like China pushed its emergency Covid hospital, it should be a matter of months to have some reactors going.
Renewables make things much worse because they need loots of Gas as Backup if the sun isn't shining or there is no wind. Which happens very often in Germany especially in the Winter.
> really serious about renewables.
I thought Germany was already really serious about renewables for the last 20 years, look where it brought them.
I thought Germany was already really serious about renewables for the last 20 years, look where it brought them.
They claimed to be really serious, but the conservative government of the last 16 years put in roadblock after roadblock, for example:
* wind energy deployment decreased massively in the last 3-4 years due to bureaucracy.
* Solar was always complicated, if you had it on the roof of your own house you would need to register a small business regardless and declare extra taxes every 3 month.
* wind energy deployment decreased massively in the last 3-4 years due to bureaucracy.
* Solar was always complicated, if you had it on the roof of your own house you would need to register a small business regardless and declare extra taxes every 3 month.
It brought them to a place which is less dependent on Russia than they otherwise would have been? And had they been yet more serious about renewables, they would have been even less dependent on Russia.
If you want to criticise them, criticise them for not going with nuclear, not for trying to build out alternatives to gas. That makes no sense.
If you want to criticise them, criticise them for not going with nuclear, not for trying to build out alternatives to gas. That makes no sense.
I don't think renewables are a solution... So might be time just to give up on climate goals and start burning lot more goal.
Proper isolation goes a long way... My house is connected to district heating and isolated to withstand -25C night temperatures. It even isolates against heat in the summer. +30C outside but a cool 22C inside. Thus the cost of heating is very low. It's not rocket science, just make walls thicker and ensure there is no draft through windows.
I’m guessing you mean insulation.
Isolated houses wouldn’t be on the grid anyway right?
Isolated houses wouldn’t be on the grid anyway right?
Very probably. Isolation is a "false friend" in German and English (also in French and English). Meaning both languages have that word but they mean something different depending on context.
In this case "Isolation" in German is used both for insulation and isolation while they are separate words in English for the two.
In this case "Isolation" in German is used both for insulation and isolation while they are separate words in English for the two.
US President warning Germany about Russia in 2018:
> "Reliance on a single foreign supplier can leave a nation vulnerable to extortion and intimidation. That is why we congratulate European states, such as Poland, for leading the construction of a Baltic pipeline so that nations are not dependent on Russia to meet their energy needs. Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course,"
> "Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers."
> "Reliance on a single foreign supplier can leave a nation vulnerable to extortion and intimidation. That is why we congratulate European states, such as Poland, for leading the construction of a Baltic pipeline so that nations are not dependent on Russia to meet their energy needs. Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course,"
> "Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers."
Back in early 2014: "Fuck the EU" - Victoria Nuland. Google it up. As it stands, EU is being consistently and thoroughly fucked
Not coincidentally, this is also when we learned the US was behind the 2014 coup in Ukraine, which directly led to Putin invading & annexing Crimea. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
Let's name names. Trump, the abovementioned president, at the UN in 2018 warns that Germany is endangering itself by increasing dependence on Russia. German envoys laugh <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe>, including foreign minister Heiko Maas, today enjoying a quiet retirement back home in Saarland.
Is this the same Trump who said he trusts Mr. Putin's word over his own intelligence agencies? Let's not kid ourselves that he had nothing but making himself look good in mind when he said those "warnings".
Was he wrong? After all, now we know the role the US played in the coup (sorry, perfectly organic color revolution) in Ukraine in 2014[0], and I don't think our intelligence agencies were vey forthcoming with that information...
And yet by 2016 when he took office it was known we were fucking with their internal politics too[1], using "totally not the CIA" organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy[2] and USAID[3].
This is not a new playbook, we have to realize every foreign government knows exactly what we're doing right? We can only pay people to look the other way for so long until a line is crossed. Whelp, apparently we discovered the line.
[0] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golos_(election_monitor)
[2] https://mronline.org/2022/03/08/national-endowment-for-democ...
[3] https://www.democracynow.org/2014/4/4/is_usaid_the_new_cia_a...
And yet by 2016 when he took office it was known we were fucking with their internal politics too[1], using "totally not the CIA" organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy[2] and USAID[3].
This is not a new playbook, we have to realize every foreign government knows exactly what we're doing right? We can only pay people to look the other way for so long until a line is crossed. Whelp, apparently we discovered the line.
[0] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golos_(election_monitor)
[2] https://mronline.org/2022/03/08/national-endowment-for-democ...
[3] https://www.democracynow.org/2014/4/4/is_usaid_the_new_cia_a...
Am. Role? You mean US dared to talk to participants in the coup?
And by "fucking with their internal politics" you mean funded a non-profit, that was trying to expose rampant election fraud?
And by "fucking with their internal politics" you mean funded a non-profit, that was trying to expose rampant election fraud?
FYI, the account that you are replying to has a long track record of "pushing a certain talking point" on this topic.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
You are not going to persuade them.
Here is the delayed but inevitable result: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32326857
You are not going to persuade them.
Here is the delayed but inevitable result: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32326857
To be fair US was also messing with Poland internal affairs in the 80s.
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/18/world/reagan-and-pope-rep...
>President Ronald Reagan signed a secret order in May 1982 that authorized an array of economic, diplomatic and covert measures to _destabilize the Government of Poland_ and begin to break the Soviet Union's dominance of Eastern Europe, Time magazine reported this week.
>The secret order, National Security Decision Directive 32, set in motion aid to the Solidarity movement, more vigorous promotion of human rights, economic pressure and diplomatic isolation of the Communist Government, the article said.
>The report in Time adds many new details, particularly the role of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Roman Catholic Church in opening networks across which telephones, fax machines, printing presses, photocopiers, computers and intelligence information moved to Solidarity.
Thanks to this I can buy bread, washing machine or a car without waiting in a queue, signing up on a list or waiting for a government grand. Meanwhile in a shithole russia: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-tv-segment-family-who... https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/18/7358790/
https://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/18/world/reagan-and-pope-rep...
>President Ronald Reagan signed a secret order in May 1982 that authorized an array of economic, diplomatic and covert measures to _destabilize the Government of Poland_ and begin to break the Soviet Union's dominance of Eastern Europe, Time magazine reported this week.
>The secret order, National Security Decision Directive 32, set in motion aid to the Solidarity movement, more vigorous promotion of human rights, economic pressure and diplomatic isolation of the Communist Government, the article said.
>The report in Time adds many new details, particularly the role of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Roman Catholic Church in opening networks across which telephones, fax machines, printing presses, photocopiers, computers and intelligence information moved to Solidarity.
Thanks to this I can buy bread, washing machine or a car without waiting in a queue, signing up on a list or waiting for a government grand. Meanwhile in a shithole russia: https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-tv-segment-family-who... https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/18/7358790/
This is a different argument though. You're making an argument about which system is better. I'm saying that Putin was telling the truth when he complained about the US interfering in their elections first, and our intelligence agencies were lying when they claimed we don't do the same thing we accused Russia of doing to us.
So when Trump said he believed Putin in that instance, he was correct.
So when Trump said he believed Putin in that instance, he was correct.
Trump took Putin's word that Russia did not meddle in the US election.
[deleted]
The last few presidents have said the same thing - here's Obama in 2014: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells...
Trump also yanked the rug out from under the TPP which effectively locked in our manufacturing relationship with China, so glass houses and all that.
Trump also yanked the rug out from under the TPP which effectively locked in our manufacturing relationship with China, so glass houses and all that.
Hillary was also opposed to TPP so it would have been the same result either way.
The TPP was widely opposed before Trump stopped it. Then the "everything Trump does is wrong" crowd reversed their position and started claiming the TPP was a good thing.
https://www.rockagainstthetpp.org/
https://www.artistsagainsttpp.org/
https://act.eff.org/action/speak-out-against-the-trans-pacif...
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/why-im-against-the-tpp_b_6831...
https://progressive.org/latest/tpp-another-trade-scam/
https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/hillary-clinton-oppo...
https://www.rockagainstthetpp.org/
https://www.artistsagainsttpp.org/
https://act.eff.org/action/speak-out-against-the-trans-pacif...
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/why-im-against-the-tpp_b_6831...
https://progressive.org/latest/tpp-another-trade-scam/
https://www.cnn.com/2015/10/07/politics/hillary-clinton-oppo...
> The TPP was widely opposed before Trump stopped it.
Agreed. Progressives are equally culpable. Though I never really heard many outlets reverse their opinions. I think people just largely forgot about the TPP.
> Then the "everything Trump does is wrong" crowd
To the contrary, I do not understand the crowd that shows up to a conversation about the time and insists on bringing their broken clock.
Agreed. Progressives are equally culpable. Though I never really heard many outlets reverse their opinions. I think people just largely forgot about the TPP.
> Then the "everything Trump does is wrong" crowd
To the contrary, I do not understand the crowd that shows up to a conversation about the time and insists on bringing their broken clock.
There were very good reasons why people opposed the TPP. The devil was in the details.
Even Biden said (in 2019) that he would not rejoin the TPP as it was initially put forward, and would insist that we renegotiate pieces of that.
> insists on bringing their broken clock.
I assume you're suggesting that the "everything Trump does is wrong" crowd doesn't exist? To the contrary, their influence is so great that even Thomas Friedman, a vocal opponent of Trump, felt it necessary to call them out:
"One of the hardest things to accept for all of us who want Donald Trump to be a one-term president is the fact that some things are true even if Donald Trump believes them!"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/13/opinion/trump-trade-china...
Even Biden said (in 2019) that he would not rejoin the TPP as it was initially put forward, and would insist that we renegotiate pieces of that.
> insists on bringing their broken clock.
I assume you're suggesting that the "everything Trump does is wrong" crowd doesn't exist? To the contrary, their influence is so great that even Thomas Friedman, a vocal opponent of Trump, felt it necessary to call them out:
"One of the hardest things to accept for all of us who want Donald Trump to be a one-term president is the fact that some things are true even if Donald Trump believes them!"
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/13/opinion/trump-trade-china...
I understand that the TPP is politically dead. But hand waving over details on the specific tariffs on suits from Singapore is misdirection. It was fundamentally an agreement to form a trade block against China. If we politically cared more about the details, then we really didn't care about China.
> I assume you're suggesting that the "everything Trump does is wrong" crowd doesn't exist?
I'm not. But I also don't understand the driving need to give a specific politician credit for doing something normal. Someone quoted Trump's opinion, several of us pointed out that it's not particularly novel or unique, and now we are being lectured about how absolutes are wrong?
Are his words somehow divine that his opinions deserve to be discussed?
> I assume you're suggesting that the "everything Trump does is wrong" crowd doesn't exist?
I'm not. But I also don't understand the driving need to give a specific politician credit for doing something normal. Someone quoted Trump's opinion, several of us pointed out that it's not particularly novel or unique, and now we are being lectured about how absolutes are wrong?
Are his words somehow divine that his opinions deserve to be discussed?
> Someone quoted Trump's opinion, several of us pointed out that it's not particularly novel or unique, and now we are being lectured about how absolutes are wrong?
I'm not talking about Trump's opinion about Germany's dependence on Russia, which, I agree, is "not particularly novel or unique".
Why did you bring up the TPP, even though it's irrelevant to this conversation? It seems to me that it was purely as a criticism of Trump ("glass houses"), as if no positive statement about Trump could ever be allowed to pass without criticism.
I'm not talking about Trump's opinion about Germany's dependence on Russia, which, I agree, is "not particularly novel or unique".
Why did you bring up the TPP, even though it's irrelevant to this conversation? It seems to me that it was purely as a criticism of Trump ("glass houses"), as if no positive statement about Trump could ever be allowed to pass without criticism.
Now, they are really quiet today and are still struggling to admit their foolishness, since they have now realised years later that they have become Europe's biggest fools, such that it's even more embarrassing to them that it also came directly from Trump, alongside with other points he specifically made at the time which aged like fine wine.
So Germany will indeed learn the hard way, despite ignoring the repeated warnings.
So Germany will indeed learn the hard way, despite ignoring the repeated warnings.
Germany is experiencing the results of corruption and arrogance. Not working with allies because "it knows better" has led to this exact moment. Enjoy winter!
Not sure why this was downvoted.
Goes against the carefully crafted image here on hn that corruption only exists in other countries and not germany, and that, as merkel said recently, the sanctions against russian gas are actually a means to punish germany. The solution in many of these people’s minds is to let ukraine die and continue doing business as usual.
Self-inflicted crisis.
The Nordstream 2 pipeline is pressurised and ready to go. Germany just has to switch it on.
The Nordstream 2 pipeline is pressurised and ready to go. Germany just has to switch it on.
There's this other geopolitical thing that's been happening.
The article is a bit sensationalistic
Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.
Yes, the industries will have a harder time, but for example, shifting generation from gas to even coal can save gas where it's needed
> the premier of the state of Saxony from the opposition conservatives. “If we aren’t careful, Germany could become deindustrialized,”
Oh that's cute. Where was this guy when this happened? https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/closing-wind-turbine-pl... (mostly because of NIMBYism). I guess you reap what you sow
Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.
Yes, the industries will have a harder time, but for example, shifting generation from gas to even coal can save gas where it's needed
> the premier of the state of Saxony from the opposition conservatives. “If we aren’t careful, Germany could become deindustrialized,”
Oh that's cute. Where was this guy when this happened? https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/closing-wind-turbine-pl... (mostly because of NIMBYism). I guess you reap what you sow
> The article is a bit sensationalistic Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.
Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia. Russia just turned off the taps, so you’re looking at a shortfall of 30-40% for winter (assuming it doesn’t restart).
What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month). You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills.
Not to mention, this will force companies to shutdown. Energy costs are too high to maintain production. So you’ll see people losing their jobs AND having crazy bills.
This will impact everything across the board - food, goods, etc.
https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany
Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia. Russia just turned off the taps, so you’re looking at a shortfall of 30-40% for winter (assuming it doesn’t restart).
What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month). You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills.
Not to mention, this will force companies to shutdown. Energy costs are too high to maintain production. So you’ll see people losing their jobs AND having crazy bills.
This will impact everything across the board - food, goods, etc.
https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany
> Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia.
Not energy, but only gas.
> What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month).
Almost no household pays $300 for heating here. We life in a large flat and paid 120€/month last year (including warming all water for the year).
> You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills.
If we drop heating altogether our flat cools down to 11°C during winter (found out the hard way because our heating system broke down during winter a few years ago), so reducing heating by 100% means a delta of 9°C. Reducing target temperature to 18°C instead of 20°C would save perhaps 25% of gas. I personally expect increases of about 1000€ for the whole heating season for our household (i.e. about triple costs).
The German depencence on gas is bad for multiple reasons, but your numbers are quite hyberbolic.
Not energy, but only gas.
> What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month).
Almost no household pays $300 for heating here. We life in a large flat and paid 120€/month last year (including warming all water for the year).
> You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills.
If we drop heating altogether our flat cools down to 11°C during winter (found out the hard way because our heating system broke down during winter a few years ago), so reducing heating by 100% means a delta of 9°C. Reducing target temperature to 18°C instead of 20°C would save perhaps 25% of gas. I personally expect increases of about 1000€ for the whole heating season for our household (i.e. about triple costs).
The German depencence on gas is bad for multiple reasons, but your numbers are quite hyberbolic.
Read the links.
Germany gets ~50% of its gas from Russia, ~50% of its oil from Russia and ~50% of its coal from Russia.
Together ~85% of the energy of Germany comes from oil, coal and gas combined Nuclear was just phased out and I assume wind / solar made up for the differential. Wind often stops, particularly in winter. I’m not familiar on the particular turbines in Germany - but Canada mentions this: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/energy-sources-distribution/r...
So 30-45% of German energy comes directly from Russia. Potentially more during winter.
Regardless, you’re looking at it through the lens of your flat. That may not be representative. For instance, I’d your flat is next to other flats operating at 20C then I’d expect your flat to stay relatively warmer compared to the outside air. If everyone drops, it drops dramatically.
The average $300/month bill may have been a poor basis (let’s take your €120/month), but the magnitude change imo is more likely to 10x still. Energy prices change on the margin, there hasn’t been a crunch yet; but there will be - barring some agreement with Russia.
Germany gets ~50% of its gas from Russia, ~50% of its oil from Russia and ~50% of its coal from Russia.
Together ~85% of the energy of Germany comes from oil, coal and gas combined Nuclear was just phased out and I assume wind / solar made up for the differential. Wind often stops, particularly in winter. I’m not familiar on the particular turbines in Germany - but Canada mentions this: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/energy-sources-distribution/r...
So 30-45% of German energy comes directly from Russia. Potentially more during winter.
Regardless, you’re looking at it through the lens of your flat. That may not be representative. For instance, I’d your flat is next to other flats operating at 20C then I’d expect your flat to stay relatively warmer compared to the outside air. If everyone drops, it drops dramatically.
The average $300/month bill may have been a poor basis (let’s take your €120/month), but the magnitude change imo is more likely to 10x still. Energy prices change on the margin, there hasn’t been a crunch yet; but there will be - barring some agreement with Russia.
A lot of German industry runs on gas. They literally won’t work otherwise.
>The article is a bit sensationalistic
>Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.
As others told you, this is completely wrong.
If you don't believe said state premier, how about the head of Germany's federation of unions <https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-faces-entire-industr...>:
>"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."
Russian gas is used in Germany for
* heating homes
* powering factories
* feedstock for those factories
>Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.
As others told you, this is completely wrong.
If you don't believe said state premier, how about the head of Germany's federation of unions <https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-faces-entire-industr...>:
>"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."
Russian gas is used in Germany for
* heating homes
* powering factories
* feedstock for those factories
And who thought that entering economic warfare with country that can kill your entire economy is a smart idea...
Those that are not completely naive and know that there are consequences for letting the bullies roam free
So why take stance now? And not back 20 years ago when even bigger and meaner bully started couple wars?
> Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.
They've been already been doing that to save money. We have friends there, they sleep at 18°C. I don't expect them to sleep at 16°C now.
They've been already been doing that to save money. We have friends there, they sleep at 18°C. I don't expect them to sleep at 16°C now.
I do wonder. Who sleeps at more than 20C? If night time temps stay at or above 20 everyone complains about "tropical nights" and that it's too hot to sleep. So I don't expect people to heat to 20 for sleeping. Do they actually do that? I'd totally overheat. 18C is totally enough a d 16C is totally OK as well.
That said, this is for the bed room. I wouldn't want to get up and sit at the breakfast table at 16C. That should stay comfy.
That said, this is for the bed room. I wouldn't want to get up and sit at the breakfast table at 16C. That should stay comfy.
My partner does. 20C is okay for us in the bedroom. If I lower it she complains about getting a cold due to inhaling cold air. We stayed at our friends in Germany at the beginning of November and she did catch a cold. It probably takes a bit of getting used to.
Of course it will differ between people. Not trying to say anything about say people with asthma etc.
I've slept in 0F (about -18C) and all I felt was a little "chilly feeling" in the lung area but everything was totally fine. This was outside. Of course you make sure that everything else is warm, including especially the head, where you loose a lot of warmth actually. I bet it wasn't the fact that the air she was breathing that was 'cold' but that she got cold overall.
I've slept in 0F (about -18C) and all I felt was a little "chilly feeling" in the lung area but everything was totally fine. This was outside. Of course you make sure that everything else is warm, including especially the head, where you loose a lot of warmth actually. I bet it wasn't the fact that the air she was breathing that was 'cold' but that she got cold overall.
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Who knows, the military situation could change a lot in three months. The article doesn't really take that into account.
I can’t imagine a drastic sweep from either side leading to a quick reset of energy markets
Ukraine will fall quickly if they stop getting support from the outside in terms of weapons and supply.
I doubt it. Ukraine is very well armed at this point. They can resist for a very very long time. If not do better without any further support.
But regardless that’s not the question. Let’s say Russia just rolls a 20 and does far better than is rationally possible, taking Odessa and much of the east rapidly. How does that change the energy situation? Let’s say Russia captures all of Ukraine and gets its genocidal wishes. Does that change anything? Are they really gonna say “well the war is over so let’s resume gas purchases”?
I think no.
But regardless that’s not the question. Let’s say Russia just rolls a 20 and does far better than is rationally possible, taking Odessa and much of the east rapidly. How does that change the energy situation? Let’s say Russia captures all of Ukraine and gets its genocidal wishes. Does that change anything? Are they really gonna say “well the war is over so let’s resume gas purchases”?
I think no.
well. hmm. I wonder if shareholders of large German industrial groups think the same.
If Russia secures Odessa and Eastern Ukraine and forces a 'reasonable' peace deal on Ukraine while keeping their "genocidal wishes" to a minimum, then yes I unfortunately see this whole thing being forgotten and forgiven by the EU in short order and gas purchases resuming quickly.
As long as Ukraine has plenty of anti ship capabilities I don't see Russia even blinking towards Odessa cause they know any ship with in range will be sunk and they don't want that.
In the fantasy world where Russia steam rolls Ukraine and also stops being evil, and Ukrainians just roll over and take it, sure maybe.
As always, Russia is waiting for Winter to force their enemies hand.
That's a cliche that's not historically accurate.
Napoleon's army occupied Moscow by late summer. They started their retreat in early fall, and got stuck in the mud. His army had been mostly destroyed before winter even started.
In the first world war, the German army fought through 3 winters in Russia before Russia surrendered.
In the second world war, the German army fought through 3 winters before they were defeated.
In the February 2022 Russian invasion in to Ukraine, the Russian army got stuck in the mud and was forced to abandon their siege of Kiev under heavy losses.
The Russian winter isn't necessarily any more pleasant for the Russians than for their enemies. I'm sure they made use of the climatic circumstances, but the weather didn't do the work for them. Napoleon and the nazis were both defeated by an opponent with a better grand strategy and logistics.
Napoleon's army occupied Moscow by late summer. They started their retreat in early fall, and got stuck in the mud. His army had been mostly destroyed before winter even started.
In the first world war, the German army fought through 3 winters in Russia before Russia surrendered.
In the second world war, the German army fought through 3 winters before they were defeated.
In the February 2022 Russian invasion in to Ukraine, the Russian army got stuck in the mud and was forced to abandon their siege of Kiev under heavy losses.
The Russian winter isn't necessarily any more pleasant for the Russians than for their enemies. I'm sure they made use of the climatic circumstances, but the weather didn't do the work for them. Napoleon and the nazis were both defeated by an opponent with a better grand strategy and logistics.
>the German army fought through 3 winters
That's true, but the winter was famously the inflection point in WWII. It's no coincidence.
That's true, but the winter was famously the inflection point in WWII. It's no coincidence.
All the sources I've read agree that this had more to do with the complete absence of a long term strategy on the German side, not the weather. They had resources for 6 months, and went into the USSR with everything they had, no reserves. When that wasn't enough, there was no plan B.
Interesting. I'll have to explore this explanation further sometime.
Are they? They're effectively the ones in no-man's land at the moment. If they can't consolidate their gains before winter, they will struggle.
Buying from the same unreliable supplier again would be a "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"
Relatively speaking, the deprivation is easier to sell to EU citizens when the crisis is immediate. It's more compelling when lives and land are more clearly on the line, today. If the conflict goes cold again, it's harder to argue against importing gas.
It's not necessarily the same supplier anymore once the chief assclown in charge is gone. On the other hand, Russia has a centuries old tradition of awful leaders and suffering people, so...
Firstly, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see a major change in the next three months, but for the sake of argument, let's roll with it for a sec. Let's say there's some big change, I guess I'm having trouble imagining a change in military situation in the next 3 months that would change the situation for Germany. Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?
>Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany?
Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money?
>Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?
If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money?
>Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?
If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
> Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money?
If Russia lost decisively in Ukraine, I don't think they'll turn the gas back on to Europe unless there's a regime change in Russia. Putin will be thrashing around doing whatever he can to make Europe suffer for their helping Ukraine.
> If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
But would the conflict be resolved in the case where Russia takes more of Ukraine? I don't see how it could be considered resolved at that point. Even if (especially if?) Russia were to take over all of Ukraine and install a puppet regime the west will continue to isolate Russia.
If Russia lost decisively in Ukraine, I don't think they'll turn the gas back on to Europe unless there's a regime change in Russia. Putin will be thrashing around doing whatever he can to make Europe suffer for their helping Ukraine.
> If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
But would the conflict be resolved in the case where Russia takes more of Ukraine? I don't see how it could be considered resolved at that point. Even if (especially if?) Russia were to take over all of Ukraine and install a puppet regime the west will continue to isolate Russia.
A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected. The Russian economy is going down the drain, and the real world common people effects of all the sanctions are going to be felt more and more. Rumbling from the rabble could push oligarchs being sad about their yachts, mansions and vacations to act. Or disgruntled scapegoated military/intelligence officers taking revenge. Or an Ukrainian hit squad.
There's plenty of time for the situation to change drastically, but nobody should rely on that happening.
There's plenty of time for the situation to change drastically, but nobody should rely on that happening.
> A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected.
This seems like the only thing that could possibly happen in the next 3 months that would actually change the situation. But it also doesn't seem likely to happen within the next 3 months.
This seems like the only thing that could possibly happen in the next 3 months that would actually change the situation. But it also doesn't seem likely to happen within the next 3 months.
Ah yes, hoping for a quick resolution of conflicts in the Russian front has always been a safe bet /s
I hope this doesn't escalate into a full blown war. It's easy to stay calm when the gas is still flowing but when winter comes Germany will want to end the Ukraine invasion and so will pressure everyone involved to finish it off. Since giving up on Ukraine is not an option, forcing Putin out is the only way. Not sure how that is going to be resolved/achieved.
Its already a full blown war, with civilians being targeted with cruise missiles (Kalibr). https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/27/ukraine-shop...
Do you mean a war where proper Germans die?
Do you mean a war where proper Germans die?
YarickR2(4)
It seems to me like the war will succeed in its goal in some form or another - the world has drastically changed, and we might be seeing the end of Europe as a global economic power.
After Russia is finished with Europe we might have a far smaller economy, while they rebound with ease because what they sell can be sold anywhere at some price. Gas alone has done like a 20x in price. Even if Ukraine is a frozen conflict in 6 months, some of those billions will be used to attempt to re elect Trump, and if he wins, then Europe will be left alone (and helpless) to fight Russia, who seems to easily outnumber and outfight European nations. The fact is Russia is willing to do anything to take over Ukraine, while the West has “limits”. Those limits are the seeds of our downfall in Ukraine. Then if Trump will end Article 5 of NATO and then we might see chaos.
Russia is in a decent position to come out the winner of this, and the western media is dangerously underreporting this.
After Russia is finished with Europe we might have a far smaller economy, while they rebound with ease because what they sell can be sold anywhere at some price. Gas alone has done like a 20x in price. Even if Ukraine is a frozen conflict in 6 months, some of those billions will be used to attempt to re elect Trump, and if he wins, then Europe will be left alone (and helpless) to fight Russia, who seems to easily outnumber and outfight European nations. The fact is Russia is willing to do anything to take over Ukraine, while the West has “limits”. Those limits are the seeds of our downfall in Ukraine. Then if Trump will end Article 5 of NATO and then we might see chaos.
Russia is in a decent position to come out the winner of this, and the western media is dangerously underreporting this.
3 months to somehow convince Ukraine to give up, or at least force EU to abandon sanctions.
Edit: I do need to put /s tag on obvious stuff after all.
Edit: I do need to put /s tag on obvious stuff after all.
I'm hoping the sanctions remain after this war ends, assuming it ever ends.
If sanctions were to remain after this war ends, how would they be useful as deterrent? Or how would they encourage the war to end any sooner?
Sanctions don't deter, because leaders always gets around them and don't care about the little guy. See NK.
What sanctions do is prevent countries from building effective armies. See blocking Russia from getting enough good steel, which means they can't shoot for as long or as well. See not getting modern microchips, which means they cannot make drones or missiles.
The sanctions must remain until Russia is much different. Otherwise this will just become another episode in the long war series.
What sanctions do is prevent countries from building effective armies. See blocking Russia from getting enough good steel, which means they can't shoot for as long or as well. See not getting modern microchips, which means they cannot make drones or missiles.
The sanctions must remain until Russia is much different. Otherwise this will just become another episode in the long war series.
The main point of sanctions isn't to act as a deterrent, but rather to weaken the Russian economy and slow down their weapons production.
Russia is currently making more money from energy exports than they did last year, please explain the logic here...
You're missing the point. Removing the sanctions wouldn't cause Russia to make less money from energy exports. The sanctions make it more difficult to Russia to import what they need to keep their military-industrial complex running. This is having at least some effect: intelligence sources indicate that their production rate for critical items such as tanks has slowed down.
There is no evidence to support the claim that the sanctions make it more difficult for Russia to import what they need or that the sanctions have slowed down Russian military-industrial complex in any way. In fact, a British military think tank recently showed that Russia's military industrial complex is ahead of what the west is able to muster https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme...
It's also completely absurd to think that Russia would have problems importing anything they can't make domestically given that India and China are backing them.
It's also completely absurd to think that Russia would have problems importing anything they can't make domestically given that India and China are backing them.
I'd like to know how these sanctions are working for us. So, we've sanctioned Russian oil/exports, so now Russia sells its in-demand resources to Asia. The price of said resources have rallied, creating balance of accounts > before the aggression in favour of Russia. On the other side (the west), we suddenly have higher fuel prices, shortages piling up, and increasing inflation. In this regard, are sanctions truly useful? Or are they simply a way of saying we're doing something, without physically doing something - a lot similar to posting a long winded reply on an internet forum.. as I sit home, in my chair.
I'd like to know how these sanctions are working for us.
Long term: great.
Russia is a mafia state where oligarchy funded by resource exports uses most of money for lining their pockets but they spend rest on keeping up appearances that Russia is modern developed country. This setup allowed them to weaponize their foreign trade and use it against Europe on many occasions. Oligarchs don't care about changes of prices of goods on domestic market as long as they get money from resources while at same time European companies functioning on free market depend on trade to Russia for part of their income. So if Russian govt. wanted to pressure some government in Europe, they would just randomly announce that they found african pig virus in imported meat, and they are ceasing all meat imports from the country immediately. Or they would announce that apples are sick and do the same. Or they would announce that in October that they will have to reduce gas exports to given country because they have unspecific technical issue in transit system that they are currently working on resolving.
This is why limiting economic ties to Russia is so important for Europe. Its a shock therapy that will let us bullet-proof our economies from Russian political influence while at same time Russian corrupted economy will not have it this easy to switch their tech industries (namely heavy industries and military production) away from dependence on European imports. And "they'll just switch to Asia" excuse will not work here because they are cut from first-league Asian exports because those happen to also be democracies that are part of states sanctioning them. They are left with China, Turkey and India who don't know how to produce fifth-generation radar systems for fighters, fifth generation tank armors and gun barrels or fifth generation tracking systems for their munitions.
Great twitter thread explaining the situation: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1501360272442896388
The Europeans have been put in a very difficult position by the US Deep State. It's hard to imagine any of their governments will survive, much less Biden's. The question I really want answered is: who authorized the ramped up bombing of Eastern Ukraine (by the Ukrainians) in February? That is the person who really escalated this crisis.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/osce-reports-surge-numb...
Imagine a scenario where China invades Taiwan. Besides losing access to about half the world's production of semi conductors, would we even be able to put sanctions on China without causing complete chaos here?